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Purchasing Managers' Index

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of purchasing managers across manufacturing, services, and other private sector companies, providing a snapshot of current business conditions and future economic trends.^[1] It functions as a diffusion index, aggregating responses on key operational aspects to produce a single value ranging from 0 to 100, where a reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, below 50 signals contraction, and exactly 50 denotes no change.^[1]^[2] In the United States, the PMI is primarily published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which has tracked manufacturing PMI since 1948 based on surveys of over 400 purchasing executives representing 18 industries.^[3] The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index equally weighted across five diffusion sub-indices: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.^[3] Similarly, the ISM Services PMI covers non-manufacturing sectors using comparable methodology, reflecting about 90% of U.S. GDP. Globally, S&P Global compiles PMI data for over 40 economies, surveying more than 20,000 companies to cover approximately 90% of global GDP, with separate manufacturing and services indices released monthly.^[4] These international PMIs follow standardized diffusion index protocols, ensuring comparability across regions, and often serve as early proxies for official GDP growth estimates.^[5] The PMI's significance lies in its timeliness and forward-looking nature, as it is released at the start of each month and influences financial markets, central bank policies, and corporate planning by signaling shifts in demand, supply chain pressures, and employment trends before broader data emerges.^[1] For instance, sustained PMI readings above 50 have historically correlated with economic upturns, while sub-50 levels precede recessions, making it a critical tool for economic forecasting.^[6]

Fundamentals

Definition and Purpose

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index that quantifies changes in key business activities within the manufacturing or services sectors, based on surveys of purchasing managers. It measures the direction and magnitude of shifts in areas such as new orders, production or output, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories, with responses categorized as improving, unchanged, or deteriorating compared to the previous month.^[7]^[4]^[8] The primary purpose of the PMI is to serve as a leading economic indicator, offering early insights into the health of the private sector economy by signaling expansion when the index reads above 50, contraction below 50, and no change at exactly 50. This forward-looking gauge helps economists, policymakers, businesses, and investors anticipate trends in economic activity, often providing signals weeks or months ahead of official statistics.^[7]^[4]^[8] Unlike lagging indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), which are released quarterly and rely on comprehensive quantitative data, the PMI is derived from qualitative surveys conducted monthly, enabling timely assessments of economic momentum without revisions to prior readings. This monthly cadence and survey-based approach make it particularly valuable for tracking short-term fluctuations and business sentiment in real time.^[8]^[4] Originating in the United States manufacturing sector in the late 1940s through surveys by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the PMI concept gained global adoption in the post-1980s era, expanding to cover services and numerous economies worldwide via providers like S&P Global.^[9]^[7]^[4]

Historical Development

The origins of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) trace back to the United States, where the National Association of Purchasing Agents (NAPA) was founded in 1915 to promote professional standards in purchasing.^[10] Monthly surveys of purchasing managers began in 1931 under NAPA, providing early insights into business conditions, but the composite PMI index for manufacturing was first calculated and published in June 1948, marking the formal establishment of the metric as a leading economic indicator.^[11] In 1998, NAPA expanded its survey efforts to cover non-manufacturing sectors, creating a parallel index to assess service and other non-goods activities.^[12] In 2002, NAPA underwent a rebranding to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), reflecting the broader scope of supply management practices beyond purchasing alone.^[10] Concurrently, the financial data firm Markit Group initiated its own series of PMI surveys in 1998, starting with coverage of the Eurozone manufacturing sector to offer timely cross-border economic insights.^[13] Markit continued expanding its global footprint, but in 2016, it merged with IHS Inc. to form IHS Markit, enhancing the scale of its PMI data compilation; this entity was subsequently acquired by S&P Global in 2022, leading to the rebranding of the surveys as S&P Global PMI.^[14] The international adoption of PMI methodologies accelerated in the early 2000s, with China's National Bureau of Statistics launching its official manufacturing PMI in January 2005 to monitor domestic industrial activity through standardized surveys.^[15] This was complemented by the introduction of the Caixin/Markit China PMI in April 2008, which focused on private-sector firms to provide an alternative perspective on economic trends.^[16] A pivotal milestone came during the 2008 global financial crisis, when PMI readings across regions, including sharp contractions below 50 in late 2008, served as early warnings of recessionary pressures, outperforming many traditional indicators in timeliness and predictive accuracy.^[17]

Computation

Survey Methodology

The survey panels for Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data are typically composed of 300 to 400 purchasing and supply management executives selected from diverse industries to ensure representativeness across the economy.^[18] These panels are stratified by industry classifications, such as the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for U.S. surveys, with selection criteria emphasizing contributions to gross domestic product (GDP), company size, and sector diversity to reflect broader economic activity.^[19]^[4] The questionnaire is distributed monthly and focuses on diffusion-style questions across five core areas: new orders, output or production, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventories.^[19]^[4] Respondents indicate changes relative to the previous month using categorical options of "better" (or increased), "same" (or unchanged), or "worse" (or decreased), allowing for qualitative assessment of business conditions without requiring numerical estimates.^[19]^[4] Surveys are generally sent out in the first or mid-part of each month, with responses collected primarily in the latter half to capture current-month developments, and due within approximately 10 days to enable timely processing.^[19]^[4] This timeline supports response rates of around 80-90%, ensuring robust participation while maintaining data freshness for release early the following month.^[20] To protect confidentiality, respondents' anonymity is strictly maintained, with individual company data aggregated without alteration or disclosure.^[21] Responses are then weighted by factors such as company size, sector, and GDP contributions to accurately represent the economy's composition, rather than treating all inputs equally.^[18]^[8] Major providers like the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global employ these standardized approaches to compile reliable PMI datasets, though specifics such as panel stratification may vary slightly.^[19]^[4]

Index Formula

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is computed using a diffusion index methodology for its sub-components, which measures the net balance of survey responses indicating change. For each sub-index, such as new orders or employment, the value is calculated as the percentage of respondents reporting improvement (or "better") plus half the percentage reporting no change (or "unchanged"), excluding those reporting deterioration. This formula yields a score ranging from 0 to 100, where 50 represents equilibrium with no net change.^[5]^[22] The overall PMI is a weighted average of five key sub-indices: new orders, output (or production), employment, suppliers' deliveries, and inventories. Weighting schemes differ by provider. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) applies equal weights of 20% to each sub-index.^[19] In contrast, S&P Global uses the following weights, reflecting the relative economic significance of each component, with new orders receiving the highest weighting due to its leading role in signaling demand and future activity:

\text{PMI} = (0.3 \times \text{New Orders Index}) + (0.25 \times \text{Output Index}) + (0.20 \times \text{Employment Index}) + (0.15 \times \text{Suppliers' Deliveries Index}) + (0.10 \times \text{Inventories Index})

^[23]^[8]^[18] Each sub-index is derived using the diffusion calculation described above. These weights for S&P Global are determined based on contributions to gross value added and econometric analysis of sector impacts. To illustrate using S&P Global weights, consider hypothetical survey results from a manufacturing panel where 60% report higher new orders, 20% unchanged, and 20% lower; the new orders sub-index would be $60 + 0.5 \times 20 = 70. Similarly, assume output at 55, employment at 48, suppliers' deliveries at 52 (noting that longer delivery times indicate expansion), and inventories at 45. Applying the weights yields PMI = (0.3 \times 70) + (0.25 \times 55) + (0.20 \times 48) + (0.15 \times 52) + (0.10 \times 45) = 21 + 13.75 + 9.6 + 7.8 + 4.5 = 56.65, rounded to 56.7, indicating moderate expansion. For ISM, equal weights would yield a different composite value from the same sub-indices. The diffusion core remains consistent across providers.

Interpretation and Thresholds

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is interpreted using a threshold of 50 as the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction in the surveyed sector. A reading above 50 signals overall expansion relative to the previous month, indicating improving business conditions such as increased orders and output, while a reading below 50 denotes contraction, reflecting declining activity. Exactly at 50, the index suggests neutral conditions with no net change from the prior period.^[4]^[24] Month-over-month changes in the PMI provide signals of acceleration or deceleration in economic momentum. For instance, a rising PMI above 50 indicates accelerating expansion, with the distance from 50 reflecting the pace of growth, whereas a declining reading toward or below 50 points to slowing activity or emerging contraction. These directional shifts are particularly useful for gauging short-term trends in manufacturing or services sectors.^[25] Sub-component indices within the PMI offer deeper insights into specific economic drivers. The new orders index, for example, often leads cyclical turns by signaling shifts in demand before they fully impact output or employment, with increases above 50 forecasting potential growth in production. Similarly, the supplier deliveries index highlights supply chain dynamics; it is constructed inversely, where longer reported delivery times (indicating bottlenecks or stress) result in higher index values, as a greater proportion of respondents note delays, which can signal inflationary pressures or capacity constraints.^[26]^[27] PMI data undergo seasonal adjustment to remove predictable calendar effects, such as holiday slowdowns or weather-related variations, ensuring comparability across months. Major providers like the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) apply the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS method, using forecast factors derived from this process to adjust raw diffusion indices post-survey compilation. S&P Global employs a similar approach, combining X-13 ARIMA-SEATS with proprietary techniques for estimating adjustment factors, typically applied after the initial data collection to refine the headline and sub-indices. This adjustment occurs following the preliminary release to isolate underlying trends.^[18]^[28] PMI releases follow a structured timeline to provide timely economic signals. Providers like S&P Global issue preliminary "flash" estimates, based on partial survey responses (often around 85% of the full sample), mid-month to offer an early gauge of conditions.^[29]^[30] ISM, however, publishes final readings incorporating the complete dataset on the first business day of the following month. Revisions to prior months are infrequent and typically minor due to the robustness of the diffusion methodology.^[19]

Principal Surveys

ISM Reports on Business

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) produces the Reports on Business, featuring two primary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys: the Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing PMI. The Manufacturing PMI, initiated in 1948, is compiled monthly from responses by approximately 400 purchasing and supply executives across U.S. manufacturing firms, weighted by their contribution to gross domestic product (GDP).^[7]^[31]^[32] The Non-Manufacturing PMI, launched in 1991 to gauge service-sector activity, similarly draws on monthly input from around 400 executives in non-manufacturing industries, also weighted by GDP share.^[33]^[34] These reports provide timely insights into U.S. business conditions, with data collected via standardized questionnaires sent in the latter half of each month. A distinctive aspect of ISM's Reports on Business is the inclusion of 10 sub-indices, which extend beyond the core five components (new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories) used in the composite PMI calculation to incorporate additional metrics such as prices, imports, exports, customers' inventories, and order backlogs.^[19]^[35] The prices sub-index, in particular, functions as an independent gauge of inflationary pressures in input costs, offering economists and policymakers a forward-looking view of pricing trends separate from the overall PMI.^[22] This expanded structure allows for deeper analysis of supply chain dynamics, trade flows, and cost environments compared to more streamlined PMI formats. Focused exclusively on the U.S. economy, the Manufacturing PMI encompasses 18 sectors, including transportation equipment, chemicals, and food products, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI spans 18 sectors such as finance, health care, and retail trade.^[19]^[36]^[37] The reports are released on a fixed schedule: the Manufacturing PMI on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI on the third business day, ensuring prompt dissemination for market participants.^[38] ISM maintains extensive historical archives exceeding 75 years for the Manufacturing PMI—dating back to its 1948 inception—and over three decades for the Non-Manufacturing PMI, facilitating robust long-term trend analysis and benchmarking against economic cycles.^[31]^[39] These datasets, accessible through ISM's resources, support academic research, forecasting models, and historical comparisons of business expansion or contraction.^[7]

S&P Global PMI Surveys

S&P Global's PMI surveys provide comprehensive coverage of global economic activity through flash and final estimates for manufacturing, services, and composite indices across more than 40 countries, encompassing approximately 70 individual survey panels with an average of 300-500 respondents per country to ensure representative sampling.^[4]^[40] These surveys trace their origins to the Markit era beginning in 1998, when harmonized methodologies were established to enable consistent cross-regional comparisons, and now operate with online questionnaires distributed to senior purchasing executives for rapid response collection.^[8]^[41] Real-time data processing allows for the timely release of flash PMIs, which are based on 80-85% of responses and serve as early indicators ahead of the final indices.^[8] Respondent panels are stratified by industry sub-sectors, including consumer goods, capital goods, and basic materials, to capture sector-specific trends, with questionnaires prioritizing forward-looking questions on new orders and business expectations to gauge future economic momentum.^[42]^[43] A significant innovation in the framework is the composite PMI, launched in 2005 as a weighted average combining manufacturing and services data to reflect broader economic output, and in select regions such as the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Ireland, surveys have since incorporated construction activity for a more holistic view.^[8] The indices undergo seasonal adjustment using established techniques to isolate underlying trends from calendar effects.^[8]

Variations and Global Indices

Services and Composite PMIs

The Services PMI adapts the standard manufacturing PMI methodology to assess economic activity in the services sector, focusing on intangible outputs such as consulting, finance, and hospitality rather than physical goods production. Survey questions are tailored accordingly; for instance, respondents report changes in "new business" volumes instead of "new orders," and "business activity" levels replace "output" metrics to better capture service-oriented dynamics. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) first published its Non-Manufacturing Report on Business, encompassing services sector indicators, in July 1991 to address the growing importance of non-goods activities.^[33] S&P Global, through its predecessor IHS Markit, began publishing Services PMIs in the late 1990s, with the UK launch in 1996 and the US in 2009, expanding globally thereafter.^[5] Key differences from the manufacturing PMI include reduced emphasis on inventories and supplier delivery times, as these factors are often irrelevant or minimal in services operations where stockpiling is uncommon. Instead, the services version prioritizes metrics like employment changes and new business growth, reflecting labor-intensive and demand-driven characteristics of the sector. These adaptations ensure the index more accurately gauges service provider sentiment and performance.^[5]^[1] The Composite PMI integrates manufacturing and services data to offer a holistic snapshot of private sector economic health, calculated as a weighted average: (Services PMI × services sector GDP share) + (Manufacturing PMI × manufacturing sector GDP share). In many advanced economies, weights approximate a 70/30 split favoring services, aligned with official GDP proportions.^[5] This approach accounts for the services sector's outsized role, which constitutes over 70% of GDP in most developed nations, making composite indices increasingly dominant for overall economic forecasting.^[44] For example, the Eurozone Services PMI climbing above the 50 expansion threshold in mid-2013 highlighted services-led recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis, contributing to broader GDP rebound.^[45]

Regional and National PMIs

The Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, aggregates data from monthly surveys of purchasing managers across more than 10 countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and others, providing a composite measure of economic activity in the single currency area.^[46] Launched in 1999, the Eurozone PMI has become a key forward-looking indicator, often influencing European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions due to its timely insights into manufacturing and services trends ahead of official GDP data.^[47] Sustained readings below 50 have historically signaled contractions that prompted ECB rate adjustments. In China, two prominent manufacturing PMIs offer contrasting views of the economy, reflecting differences in survey coverage and sectoral focus. The official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, introduced in January 2005, primarily surveys large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises, capturing broader industrial trends influenced by government policies.^[48] In contrast, the Caixin/S&P Global PMI, launched in April 2008, targets small and medium-sized private firms, providing earlier signals on export-oriented and market-driven activities.^[49] Discrepancies between the two indices frequently arise, with the Caixin PMI often showing more volatility; for example, during economic slowdowns, the NBS reading may remain above 50 due to state support, while Caixin dips below, highlighting strains in the private sector.^[50] Other national PMIs adapt the methodology to local contexts, such as Japan's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which surveys around 300 private sector companies and serves as a monthly complement to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey by offering diffusion-based insights into business conditions.^[51] In India, the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, conducted by S&P Global since 2005, polls approximately 400 manufacturers and has consistently indicated robust growth, with readings above 55 signaling strong domestic and export demand in recent years; as of October 2025, the PMI stood at 57.5.^[52]^[53] For emerging markets, Brazil's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI tracks activity among roughly 450 firms, frequently reflecting commodity price fluctuations and policy shifts, as evidenced by contractions below 50 during the 2020-2021 recession.^[54] S&P Global also produces regional PMI composites, such as those for Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Asia-Pacific, which aggregate national data to assess trade bloc dynamics and cross-border spillovers. These aggregates, covering dozens of economies, enable analysis of regional resilience; for instance, Asia-Pacific composites have highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities during global disruptions, aiding policymakers in trade-focused regions like ASEAN.^[55]

Significance and Use

Role as an Economic Indicator

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) functions as a leading economic indicator, providing early insights into business conditions that often precede broader economic trends, such as changes in gross domestic product (GDP), by several months.^[1] For example, the U.S. manufacturing PMI plummeted to 49.1 in March 2020 amid the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, foreshadowing the severe Q2 recession that saw GDP contract by 31.2% annualized.^[56] This timeliness allows PMI data to signal expansions or contractions before official statistics confirm them, with historical analysis showing a strong positive correlation of 0.75 between U.S. PMI readings and quarterly GDP growth rates since 2005.^[57] Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, closely monitor PMI surveys to inform monetary policy decisions, such as interest rate adjustments, due to their monthly release and forward-looking components on orders and production.^[58] Investors similarly rely on PMI releases for gauging market sentiment; beats against expectations frequently trigger stock market rallies, as seen in instances where stronger-than-forecast readings boost equity indices by reflecting improved economic momentum.^[59] Correlation studies further underscore PMI's reliability, while composite PMIs—blending manufacturing and services—offer a robust proxy for overall economic expansion.^[57] In practice, these indices have captured real-world dynamics, such as the 2022-2023 inflation surges, where the ISM prices-paid sub-index surged above 80 in late 2021 and remained elevated into 2022, mirroring peak consumer price inflation at multi-decade highs.^[60]

Criticisms and Limitations

One key criticism of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is its reliance on subjective perceptions of purchasing managers, which can introduce bias and variability into the data. Since the index is derived from qualitative responses to survey questions about business conditions, outcomes such as new orders or production levels may reflect optimism or pessimism influenced by individual or company-specific factors rather than objective metrics. This subjectivity can lead to discrepancies between PMI readings and actual economic performance, as the "soft" nature of the data amplifies perceptual distortions during uncertain periods.^[61]^[62] Sample limitations further undermine the PMI's representativeness, as surveys typically draw from a restricted panel of companies that overrepresents larger firms and undercovers small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). For instance, the ISM's methodology requires membership, skewing responses toward established, bigger organizations with greater resources, while global aggregates may exhibit geographic biases by prioritizing major economies over emerging markets or underrepresented regions. These issues can result in an incomplete picture of broader economic activity, particularly in diverse or fragmented sectors.^[63]^[64]^[65] The PMI also struggles with timeliness during major disruptions, as its monthly compilation based on prior-period data creates a lag that delays capture of sudden events like supply shocks. For example, volatility from supply chain issues, such as the 2021 semiconductor shortages, can make readings prone to revisions and less effective for real-time assessment, exacerbating inaccuracies in fast-changing environments.^[61]^[63] Comparability across providers poses additional challenges, with differences between ISM and S&P Global surveys—such as panel sizes, question phrasing, and coverage—leading to divergent signals that confuse analysts and policymakers. ISM panels are smaller (around 400 respondents for manufacturing) and more manufacturing-focused, while S&P Global's larger samples (over 1,300) include broader private services, resulting in inconsistent trends, particularly post-2020 amid economic volatility. These methodological variations have prompted discussions on the need for greater alignment to enhance reliability.^[18]^[65]^[66]

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Sep 18, 2024 · The NBS PMI has averaged 49.6 in the year to August compared with an average reading of 51.0 for the Caixin PMI. Variations between the two ...Missing: 2008 | Show results with:2008
[49]
ICYMI - Why does China have two sets of PMIs and why are both ...
Jan 1, 2025 · Today we get the second of China's monthly manufacturing PMIs, from Caixin/S&P Global, due at 0145 GMT, which is 2045 US Eastern time:.1. Provider And Affiliation · 3. Sample Size And... · 4. Release Dates
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Analysis: Why China's Two Manufacturing PMIs Are Diverging
Jan 4, 2024 · For both PMIs, a reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
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Japan Manufacturing PMI - Trading Economics
The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 48.2 in October 2025, from a preliminary estimate of 48.3 and down from 48.5 in September.
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HSBC Manufacturing PMI - India - 2025 Calendar Forecast - FXStreet
The PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to survey panels of around 400 manufacturers and 400 service providers. The panels are ...
[53]
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases/latest/Press-Release-India
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PMI, Purchasing Managers' Index – Manufacturing ... - S&P Global
S&P Global PMI data are closely-watched market-moving economic indicators, covering more than 30 advanced and emerging economies worldwide.Purchasing Managers' Index · PMI Commentary and Analysis · PMI ReleasesMissing: definition | Show results with:definition
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March PMIs presage a precipitous recession in America and Europe
Mar 24, 2020 · The numbers are staggeringly bad: they presage a recession every bit as bad as in the financial crisis of 2007-09, and probably worse.
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PMI and GDP : Do They Correlate for the United States? For China ...
Mar 25, 2016 · This scatterplot shows a strong positive correlation (0.75 correlation coefficient) between PMI and GDP growth, confirming results found in Koenig (2002).
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Using PMI data to better understand monetary policy decisions
May 9, 2025 · PMI data are advantageous as a tool for central banks, providing timely sets of macroeconomic information that are released monthly and not ...
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What is the PMI? - FOREX.com US
For example: Significant PMI beats (well above forecasts) can boost market sentiment and investor trust, driving up stock prices and strengthening the domestic ...
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ISM Index: The Manufacturing Sector Continues to Struggle
The measure remains well above the critical 50% threshold, but it also is well shy of readings above 80% in 2021 and 2022, when inflation had climbed to a ...
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Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Calculation and Significance
### Criticisms and Limitations of PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)
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[PDF] The PMI: a Predictive Power for Economic Growth - blominvest
May 24, 2018 · However, a modern yardstick known as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also emerged as a leading indicator to forecast economic (GDP) ...<|control11|><|separator|>
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Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - Levelup IAS
Dec 2, 2023 · Sample bias: The PMI relies on surveys from a limited sample of companies, potentially introducing sample bias. · Lack of industry details: The ...Missing: criticisms | Show results with:criticisms
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The Importance of the Purchasing Managers' Index - Investopedia
Calculation of the PMI The PMI is a composite index based on equal weights (20%) of the following five primary sub-indexes: New Orders, Production, Employment, ...
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https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010914/importance-purchasing-managers-index-pmi.asp
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US - ISM and Manufacturing PMI divergence – what does it mean?
Mar 7, 2024 · ... output – the February manufacturing PMI actually rose 0.7 points to 52.2, suggesting rising output. What do these mixed signals mean for the ...Missing: correlation production