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Bagram

Bagram is a town serving as the seat of Bagram District in Parwan Province, Afghanistan, situated about 60 kilometers north of Kabul near the coordinates 34°57′N 69°16′E. It is primarily known for Bagram Airfield, a strategically vital military installation originally constructed in the 1950s with Soviet assistance during the Cold War era of competition for influence in Afghanistan. The airfield, expanded extensively by U.S.-led coalition forces after 2001, covered more than 77 square kilometers and included dual runways exceeding 10,000 feet in length, enabling operations for large cargo and combat aircraft while facilitating logistics, air support, and troop deployments for the War in Afghanistan. At its peak, it processed substantial daily cargo—around 400 short tons—and passenger volumes, supporting up to tens of thousands of personnel as the largest coalition base in the country. Bagram's location at a historical crossroads enhanced its military value, with proximity to key routes like the Salang Tunnel linking northern and southern Afghanistan, while its ancient roots trace to settlements such as Kapisa, a Kushan Empire summer capital yielding significant Greco-Roman and Indian artifacts in archaeological hoards. The base hosted a detention center that drew international scrutiny for detainee conditions and indefinite holds, emblematic of counterterrorism challenges. U.S. forces vacated Bagram in early July 2021, transferring control to Afghan counterparts ahead of the full withdrawal, after which Taliban forces seized it following the Afghan government's swift collapse, inheriting vast equipment caches left behind.

Geography

Location and Terrain


Bagram District, with its central village of the same name, lies in Parwan Province in northern Afghanistan at coordinates approximately 34.94°N latitude and 69.27°E longitude. The district is situated roughly 47 kilometers north of Kabul by straight-line distance, placing it within strategic proximity to the capital along key northern access routes. The terrain consists of relatively flat plains in the Shomali Plain, a plateau-like region north of Kabul spanning about 30 kilometers in width and 80 kilometers in length, conducive to agriculture and large flat expanses. Elevations average around 1,500 meters (4,900 feet), featuring open, arid valleys suitable for aviation runways amid surrounding rugged foothills. This positioning at the edge of higher mountainous areas facilitated its role in historical overland movement. Bagram's location intersected ancient Central Asian and Indian trade routes, notably during the Kushan Empire's expansion, which boosted Silk Road commerce by integrating regional paths for goods exchange between Asia and beyond.

Climate

Bagram experiences a cold semi-arid climate (Köppen BSk) with significant seasonal temperature variations and low overall precipitation. Summers are hot, with average highs reaching 33°C (91°F) in July and occasional peaks exceeding 38°C (100°F), while winters are cold, with average lows around -3°C (27°F) in January and extremes dropping to -10°C (14°F) or lower. Annual precipitation averages approximately 300 mm, concentrated primarily in the spring months of March and April, when monthly totals can reach 48 mm (1.9 inches); much of the year features dry conditions, including a rainless period from mid-November to mid-January. Dust and sand storms are prevalent, occurring 1-2 days per month in winter and up to 6 days per month during summer peaks, driven by strong winds exceeding 25 knots that generate intense particulate matter, impacting visibility and air quality. These climatic patterns constrain local agriculture to irrigated crops along river valleys, as unirrigated land supports only sparse vegetation, while the frequent dust events and temperature extremes challenge military logistics, including aircraft operations and infrastructure maintenance at Bagram Airfield.

Demographics

Bagram District in Parwan Province had an estimated population of 113,173 as of 2018–2019, based on data from Afghanistan's National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA). Updated projections for 2020 indicate a figure of approximately 117,181 residents across an area of 380.5 square kilometers, yielding a density of about 308 people per square kilometer. The district remains largely rural, with the administrative center at Bagram i Adi supporting a smaller core settlement amid surrounding villages. Ethnically, the district's population aligns with Parwan Province's multi-ethnic makeup, dominated by Pashtuns and Tajiks alongside communities of Hazaras, Uzbeks, Qizilbash, Kuchis, and other minorities. Primary livelihoods center on agriculture and pastoralism, including cultivation of wheat, rice, fruits, and vegetables via irrigation from local rivers, as well as livestock rearing. Decades of conflict have driven notable displacement patterns, with post-2001 repatriations contributing to population recovery. By mid-2020, Bagram hosted 26,534 returnees from abroad (17% of the base population) and 15,383 arriving internally displaced persons (IDPs, 10%), together accounting for 27% of residents. These inflows reflect broader returns following the Taliban's ouster, though ongoing out-migration (18,465 persons, or 16%) and conflict-related housing damage (affecting 61% of structures) underscore persistent instability.

History

Ancient Period

The site of ancient Begram, from which modern Bagram derives its name—interpreted by Alexander Cunningham as "the city par excellence," a term applied to sites near major capitals—corresponding to modern Bagram in Afghanistan's Parwan Province, has been identified with the historical city of Kapisa, capital of the Kingdom of Kapisa and a key regional center from at least the Hellenistic era onward. Archaeological and textual evidence suggests it may have originated as Alexandria in the Caucasus, a colony established by Alexander the Great around 330 BCE during his campaigns through the Hindu Kush, though this attribution relies on ancient itineraries like those of Arrian and remains tentative due to limited direct Hellenistic remains at the site. Under the Kushan Empire, Begram functioned as the summer capital during the reign of Emperor Kanishka I (circa 127–150 CE), complementing winter capitals like Purushapura (modern Peshawar). This role positioned it as a nexus for Silk Road commerce, facilitating exchanges between Central Asia, India, and the Mediterranean, as evidenced by its control over passes linking the Kabul Valley to the Indus and beyond. French excavations led by Joseph Hackin in the late 1930s at Begram's royal quarter uncovered two sealed storerooms yielding the Begram hoard, comprising over 1,000 ivory and bone plaques, inlays, and figurines, alongside Roman glass vessels, bronze statuettes, and Chinese lacquerware dated to the 1st–2nd centuries CE. These artifacts, featuring motifs blending Greco-Roman, Indian, and steppe influences—such as winged cupids, Dionysiac scenes, and local Gandharan styles—demonstrate Begram's cosmopolitan trade hub status and artistic syncretism under Kushan patronage. Proximate to Begram, the Topdara stupa, a monumental Buddhist structure approximately 33 meters tall with a 23-meter base diameter, dates to the Kushan era (1st–3rd centuries CE) and exemplifies the empire's promotion of Buddhism as a state-supported faith. Constructed with a circular dome and harmika, it overlooked trade corridors, reinforcing Begram's strategic oversight of routes vital for transmitting Buddhist iconography and relics between Gandhara and Bactria.

Medieval and Early Modern Period

Following the gradual Arab conquests of the mid-7th to 8th centuries, the Bagram area in Parwan province integrated into the Umayyad and subsequent Abbasid Caliphate as part of the greater Khorasan region, marking the onset of Islamic administration amid ongoing local resistance. Control shifted to regional powers like the Saffarids (861–1003) and Samanids (819–999), who consolidated authority over eastern Afghanistan, before the Ghaznavids (977–1186) extended dominance northward from Ghazni, incorporating Parwan into their sphere for its role in securing trade and military routes toward Kabul. The Seljuks (1037–1194) later supplanted Ghaznavid influence, maintaining the site's peripheral strategic utility without notable urban expansion. The 13th-century Mongol incursions under Genghis Khan inflicted severe destruction on Parwan. In September 1221, Khwarazmian prince Jalal al-Din Mingburnu defeated a Mongol detachment at the Battle of Parwan in the province's narrow valley, leveraging terrain advantages against cavalry tactics. Enraged, Genghis personally led reinforcements, overwhelming resistance and razing settlements across the region as retribution, contributing to long-term depopulation and economic collapse in the Bagram vicinity. Timurid rule from the late 14th century offered limited recovery after Timur's campaigns subdued local holdouts in the 1380s, folding Parwan into the empire's eastern domains centered on Herat. While Timurid patronage spurred cultural and architectural advancements elsewhere, Bagram persisted as a modest agrarian outpost with scant reconstruction, its pre-Mongol urban prominence unrevived amid focus on more viable centers. By the 18th century, Ahmad Shah Durrani unified Pashtun confederations to establish the Durrani Empire in 1747, incorporating Parwan—including Bagram—as a frontier bulwark guarding approaches to Kabul and Hindu Kush passes. The site's valley position supported logistical roles, but persistent post-Mongol underdevelopment confined it to basic fortification and subsistence, without significant imperial investment in infrastructure or population growth.

20th Century Conflicts

The Soviet Union provided assistance in constructing Bagram Airfield during the 1950s as part of broader military and economic aid to Afghanistan, with the primary runway—measuring approximately 3,000 meters—completed in 1976 to support expanded aviation capabilities. This development reflected Moscow's strategic interest in bolstering a client regime amid Cold War rivalries, enabling the base to function as a forward operating site for transport and combat aircraft. On December 27, 1979, Soviet forces launched their invasion of Afghanistan, rapidly securing Bagram as a central logistics and air operations hub approximately 40 kilometers north of Kabul; paratroopers and ground units used it to consolidate control over key terrain and supply lines. The airfield hosted squadrons of MiG-21 fighters and other Soviet Tactical Air Force assets, which conducted close air support, interdiction strikes, and reconnaissance missions against Mujahideen guerrillas employing hit-and-run tactics in rugged mountainous areas. These operations, involving rotations of up to several hundred aircraft at peak, aimed to suppress insurgent mobility but faced challenges from Stinger-supplied man-portable air-defense systems introduced by U.S. aid in 1986, contributing to over 300 Soviet fixed-wing losses by war's end. Soviet withdrawal from Bagram and Afghanistan concluded on February 15, 1989, under the Geneva Accords, leaving the base to the Soviet-backed Democratic Republic of Afghanistan government under President Najibullah, which sustained operations with residual MiG-21s and Su-17s amid ongoing low-intensity conflict. The regime's collapse in April 1992, triggered by defection of key militias and cutoff of Soviet subsidies, plunged the country into civil war among Mujahideen factions, with Bagram changing hands amid factional fighting over strategic assets near the capital. By the mid-1990s, the Taliban—emerging from Pashtun religious students and former Mujahideen networks—gained dominance through disciplined infantry tactics and capture of provincial centers, seizing Bagram as part of their advance on Kabul in 1996 and solidifying control over northern approaches. Under Taliban rule until 2001, the airfield operated at minimal capacity due to international sanctions prohibiting aviation fuel imports and maintenance, reducing it to occasional use for small transports amid dilapidated infrastructure and proxy influences from Pakistan. This period underscored how superpower disengagement exacerbated internal power vacuums, enabling ideologically driven groups to consolidate gains through asymmetric warfare and external patronage.

Bagram Airfield

Development and Infrastructure

Bagram Airfield originated as a Soviet-constructed facility in the 1950s, with the primary runway completed in 1976 at a length of 3,000 meters, designed to support heavy bombers and strategic aircraft operations. The base featured basic hangars and support structures suited for Cold War-era military aviation, reflecting Soviet engineering priorities for regional influence projection in Afghanistan. After U.S.-led coalition forces seized control in December 2001, extensive upgrades transformed the airfield into a modern logistics powerhouse capable of handling massive airlift operations. The main runway was lengthened to 3,602 meters and widened to 46 meters, enabling operations for oversized transport aircraft like the C-5 Galaxy and C-17 Globemaster III, while a second parallel runway was added to increase throughput. In 2005, U.S. Air Force Red Horse engineers executed a $4.4 million project to expand aircraft ramp space by 60,000 square meters using concrete slabs, replacing outdated planking to accommodate fixed-wing and rotary-wing assets. Additional infrastructure included large-scale hangars, fuel depots with high-volume storage for jet fuel and aviation gasoline, and a $30 million passenger terminal with adjacent cargo facilities completed around 2009 to streamline personnel and materiel flows. The base evolved to support peak populations of 26,000 to 31,000 military and civilian personnel through modular housing units, dining facilities, and utilities infrastructure, complemented by perimeter defenses featuring watchtowers, barriers, and electronic surveillance systems. Medical infrastructure, such as the Craig Joint Theater Hospital, provided advanced trauma care capacity, while integrated logistics networks handled millions of tons of annual throughput, underscoring engineering adaptations to high-altitude (about 1,500 meters elevation) and harsh environmental conditions.

Military Operations and Strategic Role

Bagram Airfield served as the primary operational hub for U.S. and coalition forces during Operation Enduring Freedom, initiated on October 7, 2001, following the September 11 attacks, enabling air campaigns and ground insertions against Taliban and al-Qaeda strongholds. The base hosted the 455th Air Expeditionary Wing, comprising approximately 2,000 personnel focused on close air support, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions critical to special operations raids targeting insurgent networks. These efforts included the integration of captured militants into intelligence analysis at Bagram, where detainees were trained to interpret satellite imagery, enhancing the disruption of al-Qaeda logistics and command structures. From 2003 to 2014, Bagram functioned as the central logistics node for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), supporting the expansion of Afghan National Security Forces through training programs and supply distribution that sustained operations across the country. The airfield's infrastructure expansions, including fuel storage increases to over 3 million gallons by 2007, reduced dependency on external supply lines and facilitated the 2009-2011 troop surge, which peaked at around 140,000 coalition personnel in 2010-2011, enabling intensified counterinsurgency efforts. Counterterrorism operations from Bagram yielded verifiable successes in high-value target captures via fused intelligence from joint special operations task forces, unraveling Taliban and al-Qaeda networks through targeted raids and interagency analysis, which contributed to localized stability improvements in key provinces until the ISAF combat mission concluded in December 2014. These disruptions included the elimination or apprehension of senior commanders, as evidenced by operations like the 2002 Shah-i-Kot Valley engagement, where Bagram-based assets provided critical support leading to significant insurgent losses.

Key Incidents During Coalition Use

On February 27, 2007, a suicide bomber detonated explosives at the entrance to Bagram Airfield during a visit by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, killing at least 14 Afghan civilians and two Afghan security personnel while injuring 46 others; no coalition personnel were killed, and the attack failed to breach the perimeter or affect Cheney's schedule. The Taliban claimed responsibility, employing a vehicle-borne tactic aimed at high-profile targets, though base defenses including barriers and guards limited penetration. Indirect fire attacks, primarily rockets and mortars launched from surrounding hills, persisted throughout coalition operations, with notable peaks during the U.S. troop surge from 2011 to 2014. On June 21, 2009, an early morning barrage killed two U.S. servicemembers and wounded six others. A June 18, 2013, mortar strike killed four U.S. service members, highlighting vulnerabilities despite countermeasures like counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar systems. These attacks inflicted dozens of coalition casualties overall, often causing indirect wounds from shrapnel or structural collapse, and underscored Taliban reliance on standoff weapons to probe defenses without risking direct assault. Insider threats emerged as a tactic, with Afghan personnel or contractors exploiting access. On November 12, 2016, a suicide bomber—identified as an Afghan national employed by a U.S. contractor and formerly affiliated with the Taliban—detonated inside the base, killing two U.S. service members and two U.S. contractors while wounding 19 others, including 15 U.S. personnel. The incident exposed vetting gaps for local hires, prompting enhanced biometric screening and restricted access protocols in response. Such incidents, totaling over 100 coalition deaths from hostile action at Bagram including indirect fire and ground assaults, demonstrated sustained insurgent pressure despite airfield fortifications and rapid reaction forces. Taliban tactics evolved from massed rocket volleys to targeted insider operations, correlating with operational tempo; coalition countermeasures included perimeter patrols, intelligence-driven raids on launch sites, and airfield hardening, yet attacks continued intermittently until the 2021 withdrawal.

Detention Facility

Establishment and Operations

The Parwan Detention Facility, initially designated the Bagram Theater Internment Facility (BTIF), was established by United States forces in early 2002 at Bagram Airfield to detain individuals captured during combat operations in Afghanistan, primarily members of the Taliban and al-Qaeda networks engaged in hostilities against coalition forces. The facility served as a primary site for temporary internment of unlawful enemy combatants, aimed at preventing their return to the battlefield and facilitating intelligence collection to support ongoing counterinsurgency efforts. At its peak, it housed approximately 3,000 detainees, the majority Afghan nationals transferred from initial screening sites following field captures. United States military oversight continued through the facility's operations, with detainee disposition handled via initial capturing unit reviews and periodic status assessments to determine ongoing security threats. Following the 2008 Supreme Court ruling in Boumediene v. Bush, which affirmed habeas corpus access for certain detainees and prompted broader procedural reforms, U.S. authorities implemented enhanced review boards at Bagram, enabling personal appearances and evidence-based evaluations that resulted in releases for those no longer deemed threats. A 2012 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Afghan governments initiated the transfer process, culminating in the handover of control over Afghan detainees to Afghan National Security Forces in March 2013, after which Afghan review committees assumed responsibility for case dispositions and releases. The U.S. retained limited custody of non-Afghan detainees until fully closing its operations at the facility in December 2014.

Allegations of Abuse and Legal Challenges

In December 2002, Afghan detainees Dilawar, a 22-year-old taxi driver, and Mullah Habibullah died while in U.S. custody at Bagram Air Base. Military autopsies classified both deaths as homicides, attributing them to blunt force injuries sustained from beatings, stress positions, and other physical abuses by U.S. soldiers. A subsequent U.S. Army investigation implicated 26 soldiers in the mistreatment, leading to criminal charges including assault; several, such as Specialist Willie Brand, were convicted in courts-martial and received sentences ranging from reduction in rank to confinement, though no murder convictions resulted directly from these cases. The Department of Defense maintained that such incidents were isolated deviations from policy, conducted by individual actors amid the exigencies of interrogating captured insurgents in an active combat zone, and emphasized ongoing training and accountability measures to prevent recurrence. Allegations extended to a purported "black jail" or secret detention site within Bagram, separate from the main facility, where human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch reported claims of sensory deprivation, beatings, and sexual humiliation of detainees, including juveniles, by U.S. and CIA personnel. These reports, based on detainee testimonies, contrasted with U.S. official denials of systematic torture, attributing harsh methods to necessities in extracting intelligence from high-value targets linked to al-Qaeda and Taliban operations in asymmetric warfare. Critics, including Amnesty International, highlighted patterns of abuse, while the DoD pointed to prosecuted cases as evidence of internal enforcement rather than institutional policy. Legal challenges focused on detainees' rights to habeas corpus review in U.S. courts. In Al Maqaleh v. Gates (2009), a federal district judge initially ruled that non-Afghan detainees at Bagram could petition for habeas, extending logic from the Supreme Court's Boumediene v. Bush decision on Guantanamo. However, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals reversed this in 2010, denying constitutional habeas access due to Bagram's location in an active war zone under U.S. control but not de facto sovereignty, unlike Guantanamo; the Supreme Court declined certiorari, upholding the decision. This framework reflected judicial deference to executive wartime authority, even as Taliban forces routinely executed captured Afghan security personnel and civilians without trial or investigation, underscoring reciprocal brutality in the conflict.

US Withdrawal and Taliban Takeover

Events of 2021

United States forces completed their withdrawal from Bagram Airfield on July 2, 2021, departing in the early morning hours without prior notification to the incoming Afghan commander, Gen. Jawed Amini, and shutting off the base's electricity as they exited. This abrupt handover created a brief interregnum of approximately two hours during which looters ransacked parts of the facility, stripping copper wiring and other valuables before Afghan troops arrived to assume control. The move preceded the fall of Kabul by over five weeks and marked the end of American presence at Afghanistan's largest airbase, which had served as the central hub for logistics, air operations, and troop movements throughout two decades of conflict. The withdrawal aligned with timelines established in the February 2020 Doha Agreement between the United States and the Taliban, which mandated a full U.S. troop exit by May 1, 2021, later extended to August 31 by the Biden administration. Despite internal military assessments highlighting Bagram's strategic value for potential contingency operations, the administration opted against retaining it, citing requirements for thousands of additional troops to secure the isolated site amid deteriorating conditions. This decision prioritized a complete drawdown over phased base retention, forgoing Bagram's role in enabling close air support and rapid reinforcement, which had underpinned Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) capabilities. The sequencing of the Bagram exit exacerbated a cascading security vacuum, as the ANDSF, now responsible for the base without U.S. logistical backing, experienced rapid demoralization and operational paralysis in the absence of airpower projection from the facility. Afghan defenders at Bagram surrendered with minimal resistance on August 15, 2021, as Taliban forces overran the site amid the simultaneous collapse of Kabul, allowing insurgents unhindered access to residual U.S.-supplied equipment nationwide, valued at approximately $7 billion in transfers to Afghan forces over prior years. This early forfeiture of Bagram's runways and infrastructure facilitated the Taliban's accelerated provincial gains by removing a key chokepoint for coalition interdiction, contributing causally to the ANDSF's inability to mount sustained defenses elsewhere.

Immediate Aftermath and Taliban Utilization

Following the Taliban's capture of Bagram Airfield on August 15, 2021, amid their broader takeover of Kabul, forces immediately accessed the adjacent Parwan Detention Facility and released between 5,000 and 7,000 prisoners, including senior Taliban commanders, al Qaeda operatives, and other militants detained for insurgency activities against coalition forces. This mass liberation, executed without vetting or oversight, swelled Taliban ranks and enabled the reintegration of battle-hardened fighters, with U.S. officials warning it could revive threats from groups like al Qaeda. Subsequent reports confirmed at least one released detainee, an ISIS-K operative, perpetrated the August 26, 2021, Kabul airport bombing that killed 13 U.S. service members and over 170 Afghans. The airfield quickly became a site of symbolic Taliban consolidation, repurposed to showcase captured U.S. military assets as emblems of victory over the 20-year occupation. Starting in subsequent anniversaries, the group held military parades at Bagram, including displays of repaired American helicopters, Humvees, and weapons systems abandoned or disabled during the U.S. exit, with fighters performing drills to demonstrate operational reuse. A notable event occurred on August 14, 2024, marking the third anniversary of their return to power, where approximately 10,000 attendees witnessed goose-stepping troops and flyovers, underscoring the base's role in internal propaganda and morale-building amid ongoing economic sanctions. Under Taliban control, Bagram's infrastructure faced challenges from limited technical expertise and international isolation, leading to partial cannibalization of equipment for salvageable parts, though some hardware was reportedly repaired for display and limited use. The runway and facilities, once central to NATO logistics, showed signs of neglect by 2024, with no verified large-scale operational flights, reflecting broader constraints on sustaining advanced aviation assets without external support.

Current Status and Geopolitical Tensions

Taliban Control and Internal Use

Following the Taliban takeover, Bagram Airfield has served primarily as a military hub for training, equipment storage, and public displays of force. On August 14, 2024, the Taliban organized a large-scale military parade at the base to commemorate the third anniversary of their return to power, featuring goose-stepping troops, salutes atop abandoned U.S. tanks, and flyovers by Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters alongside captured U.S. Black Hawks. The event highlighted homemade improvised explosive devices and other asymmetric weaponry, underscoring the group's emphasis on ground-based capabilities amid ongoing clashes with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP). The Taliban has utilized Bagram to project military expansion, integrating salvaged U.S. equipment—valued at billions in pre-withdrawal estimates—into its operations, though maintenance challenges limit full operationalization. Reports indicate the group has grown its fighting force through recruitment and absorption of former Afghan security personnel, enabling parades that demonstrate organizational cohesion and deterrence against internal threats like IS-KP, which conducted attacks in 2024 including in Kabul and Parwan Province near Bagram. Aviation assets remain rudimentary, with the 2024 parade showcasing rare helicopter flights but no evidence of advanced fixed-wing capabilities or sustained air operations; unverified rumors of Chinese military aid, including potential airfield upgrades, have been dismissed by Taliban spokesmen as foreign interference claims. Economically, Bagram's potential for civilian repurposing—such as logistics or special economic zones proposed by the Taliban in 2023 for former bases—has gone unrealized, with the site prioritizing military retention over development. This underutilization aligns with Afghanistan's broader stagnation, where GDP contraction and aid restrictions have left over half the population facing acute food insecurity as of 2024, heightening famine risks amid restricted international engagement and the Taliban's focus on regime security.

US Strategic Interests and 2025 Developments

Bagram Airfield retains significant strategic value for the United States due to its location approximately 800 kilometers from the Chinese border and roughly 2,400 kilometers from key Chinese missile production facilities in Xinjiang, enabling potential surveillance and rapid response capabilities against regional threats including nuclear proliferation concerns. Proponents argue that reclaiming the base would enhance counterterrorism operations by providing a platform for drone strikes against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) activities, which have intensified post-2021 withdrawal, with UN reports noting ISIL-K's expanded attacks and sanctuary in Afghanistan. The Orion Policy Institute emphasizes Bagram's role in bolstering U.S. influence in Central Asia amid rising Chinese presence, positioning it as a hedge against Beijing's Belt and Road initiatives and regional dominance. In September 2025, President Donald Trump publicly demanded the return of Bagram, stating on September 18 that the U.S. was negotiating to regain control and warning of "bad things" if unmet, citing its proximity to Chinese nuclear sites—claimed hyperbolically as "one hour away"—to justify renewed military projection. The Taliban swiftly rejected these overtures on September 22, with spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid asserting sovereignty and urging U.S. "realism and rationality," viewing any return as a violation of the 2020 Doha Agreement terms that precluded permanent bases. Regional powers including Pakistan, China, Iran, and Russia opposed reestablishment of U.S. bases in a joint statement on September 25, 2025, during Moscow-format talks, citing risks of destabilization and infringement on Afghan autonomy; even India aligned in rejecting foreign military footprints. Advocates for reclamation, such as analysts at the Hudson Institute, frame it as essential for national security given the 2021 abandonment's causal empowerment of the Taliban, which facilitated terrorist safe havens and regional instability, arguing that Bagram's infrastructure could restore deterrence without full reoccupation. Critics, including those in The Diplomat, counter that it undermines sovereignty, invites escalation with adversaries like China and Iran, and diverts resources from over-the-horizon capabilities proven viable post-withdrawal, potentially reigniting insurgency without addressing root governance failures. These debates underscore Bagram's pivotal role in U.S. great-power competition, though logistical and diplomatic hurdles, including Taliban fortification of the site, complicate feasibility as of October 2025.

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