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Multiple baseline design

Multiple baseline design is a single-case experimental design commonly employed in (ABA), , and to assess the effects of an . It establishes concurrent baselines across multiple behaviors, participants, or settings, then introduces the intervention at staggered intervals. This demonstrates experimental control and functional relationships between the intervention and target behaviors without requiring of the . Introduced in 1968 by Donald M. Baer, Montrose M. Wolf, and Todd R. Risley as a key dimension of , the design addresses ethical concerns associated with withdrawing effective treatments. It is particularly useful when behavioral changes are expected to be irreversible or reversal might not reliably occur. Multiple baseline designs remain among the most frequently used single-case experimental designs, comprising a significant portion of published studies in behavioral and health sciences as of recent reviews (2020–2025).

Definition and Purpose

Definition

Multiple baseline design is a single-subject experimental design that evaluates the effects of an independent (such as an ) on a dependent (target behavior) by establishing multiple baselines and introducing the sequentially across them, thereby demonstrating experimental control through replication without withdrawing the treatment. In the baseline phase, the target is measured repeatedly over time without any to establish , typically requiring a sufficient number of points (often at least three) to confirm a consistent pattern of responding that serves as a control condition. The is then applied at staggered intervals across at least three distinct baselines—such as different , subjects, or settings—to isolate the functional relation between the intervention and behavior change, ensuring that effects are not due to extraneous factors like maturation or history. Interpretation of results relies primarily on visual analysis of graphed data, where changes in level (overall magnitude), trend (direction and rate of change over time), and variability (consistency of data points) are examined immediately following each intervention introduction to confirm the intervention's impact. This approach, common in and related fields, emphasizes ongoing data collection for timely decision-making.

Purpose

The multiple baseline design serves as a primary method in single-case experimental research to demonstrate the effects of an without the need to withdraw treatment, thereby addressing ethical concerns in clinical and therapeutic settings where reversing progress could harm participants. This approach allows researchers to evaluate sustained behavioral changes while maintaining the integrity of ongoing interventions, particularly in fields like speech-language pathology and . A core objective of the design is to provide replication across multiple baselines—such as behaviors, subjects, or settings—to for alternative explanations like maturation or external events, thereby strengthening causal inferences about the intervention's impact. By staggering the introduction of the across these baselines, consistent patterns of change can be observed only upon implementation, ruling out coincidental factors and enhancing . The design's flexibility makes it particularly suitable for applied disciplines including , , and , where traditional group designs are often impractical due to small sample sizes, heterogeneous populations, or the need for individualized interventions. Unlike group-based studies that rely on averages to infer effects, multiple baseline designs focus on establishing functional relationships within individual cases, allowing for precise of how interventions influence specific behaviors in real-world contexts.

Historical Development

Origins

The multiple baseline design emerged in the as a key component of single-subject experimental methodology within (ABA), a discipline grounded in B.F. Skinner's principles of . Skinner's foundational work, including his 1938 book The Behavior of Organisms, emphasized the analysis of behavior through measurable environmental contingencies, laying the groundwork for experimental designs that could demonstrate causal relationships between interventions and behavioral outcomes without group comparisons. This approach addressed the need for rigorous, individualized evaluation in behavioral research, particularly as ABA sought to apply laboratory-derived principles to real-world settings. The concept of the multiple baseline design was first articulated in basic operant research by Murray Sidman in his 1960 book Tactics of Scientific Research: Evaluating Experimental Data in Psychology, where he proposed staggering baseline measurements across multiple response classes or subjects to establish experimental control absent traditional reversal procedures. An early applied instance appeared in 1965, when J.R. Metz graphed a multiple baseline design using conventional coordinates to evaluate the conditioning of generalized imitation skills in children with autism, marking one of the initial visualizations of the method in a clinical context. The design received its formal description in the literature in 1968 through the seminal paper by Donald M. Baer, Montrose M. Wolf, and Todd R. Risley, which outlined dimensions of ABA and positioned the multiple baseline as a primary experimental strategy. This development built directly on the limitations of designs, such as the ABAB format, which often required withdrawing effective interventions—a process fraught with ethical challenges, especially when behaviors were socially significant and reversal could cause harm or was irreversible. By the late 1960s, the multiple baseline design gained rapid adoption in special education and clinical psychology, enabling ethical evaluation of interventions like skill-building programs for individuals with developmental disabilities without necessitating treatment withdrawal.

Key Contributors

Murray Sidman played a foundational role in the development of single-case experimental designs through his 1960 book Tactics of Scientific Research: Evaluating Experimental Data in Psychology, which emphasized the importance of replication, steady-state responding, and rigorous control in behavioral research, providing the conceptual groundwork for designs like the multiple baseline. The multiple baseline design was formally introduced in 1968 by Donald M. Baer, Montrose M. Wolf, and Todd R. Risley in their seminal paper "Some Current Dimensions of ," published in the inaugural issue of the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA), where they outlined it as an ethical alternative to designs for demonstrating functional relations in applied settings. R. Vance Hall contributed significantly to the early application of multiple baseline designs in educational contexts, particularly through his 1970 work on token reinforcement programs in classrooms, which utilized multiple baselines across students to evaluate interventions for disruptive behaviors and academic performance. Montrose Wolf and Todd Risley further advanced the design's adoption during the 1970s as co-founders and editors of JABA, promoting its use in numerous studies on , including and social skills training, which helped establish it as a cornerstone of (ABA) research. By the 2000s, the multiple baseline design had evolved into formalized standards for evidence-based practices, with the What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) incorporating specific criteria for its evaluation in single-case studies, such as minimum data points per phase and staggered interventions, to assess intervention efficacy in and related fields.

Types of Designs

Across Behaviors

In the multiple baseline design across behaviors, the intervention is applied sequentially to two or more distinct, measurable behaviors exhibited by the same or within the same setting, while data are collected concurrently on all behaviors to demonstrate experimental . This variation is particularly useful when behaviors are independent enough that intervening on one does not immediately affect the others, allowing researchers to isolate the intervention's effects. Target behaviors are selected based on their relevance to the research or clinical goals, ensuring they are objectively defined, independent, and amenable to direct and . For instance, in educational settings, behaviors such as on-task responding and disruptive vocalizations might be chosen for a single student, with data collected via frequency counts or interval recording during simultaneous phases. The key is that the behaviors should not overlap functionally, so changes in one do not confound the others. Baseline stability is established by collecting until patterns show minimal variability and no systematic trends, typically requiring 3 to 5 consistent data points per behavior before introducing the to the first target. This criterion, recommended in seminal guidelines, ensures that any subsequent changes can be attributed to the rather than maturation or external factors. The is then staggered across behaviors at predetermined intervals, such as after 3-5 sessions of in the targeted behavior, while maintaining conditions for the others to confirm their . This staggered approach replicates the effect across behaviors, strengthening by ruling out alternative explanations like history or testing effects. A representative example involves targeting talking out and out-of-seat behaviors in a classroom setting using a multiple baseline across behaviors design. Baseline data showed stable high rates for both behaviors. An intervention, such as reinforcement for appropriate behavior, was introduced first to talking out, reducing it significantly while out-of-seat remained elevated; staggering the intervention to out-of-seat then yielded similar reductions, demonstrating efficacy without spillover effects.

Across Subjects

The multiple baseline design across subjects involves the concurrent of an identical target in three or more participants during an initial , allowing researchers to establish patterns of responding for each individual before any intervention is applied. This approach is particularly suited to contexts where the of interest, such as academic performance or social skill deficits, is observed uniformly across subjects to ensure comparability. Baselines are typically extended until is achieved, meaning the data show consistent levels, trends, or variability without systematic change, which helps rule out maturation or other extraneous influences. Once baselines are stable, the is introduced sequentially to each at staggered intervals, while the remaining participants continue in baseline conditions. This staggered implementation serves as a for external variables, as any simultaneous changes across all subjects would suggest influences beyond the intervention, whereas behavior changes coinciding only with the introduction of the for each individual demonstrate experimental . The design ensures replication of the effect across subjects, strengthening by showing consistent functional relations between the intervention and behavior change for each participant. For instance, in a setting, a teacher might target disruptive behaviors in three students by applying a system first to one student, then the second after observing in the first's response, and finally the third, with ongoing for all to monitor effects. This design is commonly employed in group environments like classrooms or groups, where applying simultaneously to all might confound results or be logistically challenging. It addresses ethical concerns associated with withholding effective treatments by eventually providing the intervention to every participant, though researchers must justify delays in treatment for those in extended baseline to minimize potential harm. The sequential nature also promotes ethical practice by prioritizing subjects who may show the most pressing need based on baseline data severity.

Across Settings

In the multiple baseline design across settings, the target behavior of a single participant is measured simultaneously across multiple distinct environments, such as the home, school, and community, to evaluate the effects of an while minimizing ethical concerns associated with reversing learned behaviors. Baseline data are collected in all settings until levels are observed, ensuring that any subsequent changes can be attributed to the rather than maturation or external influences. This approach allows researchers to demonstrate functional by showing that behavioral improvements occur only in the setting where the is applied, while untreated settings remain . The intervention is introduced in a staggered fashion, typically beginning in one setting after a sufficient period, with subsequent introductions in the remaining settings at different times based on demonstrated stability in the baselines. For instance, positive reinforcement might be implemented first in the setting to increase a child's on-task , while continuing baseline monitoring at home and in the community; the intervention is then extended to those settings only after the initial effect is replicated. This staggered introduction helps establish the intervention's efficacy through intra-subject replication across contexts, with data paths ideally showing immediate and sustained changes coinciding with the intervention's onset in each setting. At least three distinct settings are required to provide adequate replication and strengthen , as fewer may limit generalizability assessments. This design is particularly valuable in applied behavior analysis for promoting generalization of skills across real-world environments, where behaviors like social interactions or compliance may naturally vary by context. A representative example involves a 13-year-old boy with learning disabilities whose inappropriate peer interactions were targeted using and a system in a multiple baseline across settings design. Baseline rates of inappropriate interactions (e.g., physical touching, pretend fighting) were measured across school settings including P.E., drama, and lunch, with the interventions—social stories providing narratives for appropriate behavior and tokens earned for compliance—introduced sequentially in each setting. Improvements in appropriate interactions emerged only following the intervention in each environment, demonstrating effectiveness and contextual generalizability without disrupting prior gains.

Implementation Procedures

Concurrent Implementation

In concurrent multiple baseline designs, occurs simultaneously across all baselines from the outset of the study, ensuring that each tier—such as behaviors, , or settings—is exposed to the same external influences and historical events over time. This temporal synchronization allows researchers to monitor multiple baselines in , with phase changes (introduction of the ) staggered across tiers to demonstrate functional without withdrawing the . For instance, in designs across , all participants begin baseline measurement concurrently, providing a controlled comparison of intervention effects as they are applied sequentially. Decision rules for staggering interventions typically involve waiting for a sufficient number of stable baseline data points before introducing the to the next tier, often defined as three to five consecutive points showing low variability and no systematic trend. The first tier receives the after meeting this , while subsequent tiers continue in until their data similarly stabilize, thereby replicating the effect across tiers and strengthening experimental control. These rules help predict when changes would occur without and verify that observed shifts coincide with . All data from the concurrent baselines are graphed on a single plot, with calendar time or session number on the x-axis and the dependent variable (behavior) on the y-axis, allowing of overlapping timelines and staggered phase lines to compare effects across tiers. This graphing convention facilitates the identification of replicated level changes or trends immediately following each , while unchanged tiers serve as controls. Concurrent implementation is preferred for enhancing because the overlapping measurement periods minimize threats from history and maturation effects, as any extraneous variable would need to align precisely with each staggered to mimic outcomes across tiers. The design's strength lies in within-tier replication ( stability followed by change upon ) and across-tier comparisons, which collectively demonstrate that the independent variable, rather than external factors, accounts for behavioral changes.

Nonconcurrent Implementation

Nonconcurrent multiple baseline design represents a flexible of the traditional multiple baseline approach in single-case experimental research, wherein phases and interventions are initiated at staggered times across multiple units—such as behaviors, subjects, or settings—without requiring temporal overlap or synchronization. This variant allows researchers to introduce the independent variable sequentially to different units at distinct points, accommodating real-world constraints that prevent concurrent . The design proves particularly useful in applied settings where simultaneous measurement across units is impractical, such as due to limited resources, varying participant availability, or logistical challenges in field-based studies. For instance, in community , researchers might implement monitoring for one group while preparing another, staggering starts to manage personnel or materials effectively. Despite the lack of concurrency, each unit's phase must demonstrate or predictability independently prior to introduction, mirroring stability criteria from concurrent designs, to ensure reliable assessment of intervention effects. Replication of effects is achieved through consistent within-unit changes across the staggered cases, rather than relying on between-unit synchrony for inference. Introduced in the early within the on to support , this design facilitates experimental control in asynchronous contexts, as exemplified by staggered intervention rollouts in educational or community programs evaluating behavioral outcomes.

Advantages and Limitations

Advantages

One key advantage of the multiple baseline design is its avoidance of ethical concerns associated with treatment or , making it particularly suitable for interventions that are intended to produce lasting changes, such as skill-building programs in . Unlike reversal designs, which require reverting to baseline conditions potentially harming participants, the multiple baseline approach staggers the introduction of the intervention across behaviors, subjects, or settings without necessitating removal of effective treatments. This design enhances by providing multiple replications of the experimental effect within a single study, as the staggered baselines allow researchers to demonstrate consistent functional relations between the and across different conditions. For instance, changes observed only after implementation in each baseline tier help rule out alternative explanations like maturation or external events, thereby strengthening causal inferences. The multiple baseline design is especially applicable to low-incidence behaviors or small sample sizes, where traditional group comparison designs are impractical due to challenges or the rarity of the target behavior. It enables rigorous at the individual or small-group level, often requiring just three to four baselines for sufficient replication, which is ideal for heterogeneous populations or clinical settings with limited participants. In applied research contexts, the design is cost-effective, as it minimizes the need for large-scale resources typically required in randomized controlled trials while allowing implementation in real-world environments. Furthermore, its reliance on visual analysis of graphed data facilitates accessible interpretation without complex statistical tests, enabling practitioners to quickly assess effects through changes in level, trend, and variability.

Limitations

Multiple baseline designs, while valuable in , present several limitations that can impact their feasibility and interpretation. One primary drawback is their time-intensive nature, as the design requires extended phases across multiple tiers (e.g., behaviors, subjects, or settings) with staggered introductions to establish stability and demonstrate functional relations. This prolongation of can delay the of effective treatments, particularly in applied settings where timely is crucial. Another constraint involves the risk of diffusion or carryover effects, where changes in one tier inadvertently influence others, undermining the isolation necessary for . For instance, if the affects multiple subjects simultaneously through social interaction or shared environments, the design's logic may falsely attribute outcomes to extraneous variables rather than the itself. This issue is exacerbated when tiers are not sufficiently , leading to potential of results. The reliance on visual analysis for evaluating effects introduces subjectivity, as interpretations of data patterns—such as level changes, trends, or variability—can vary among observers without standardized metrics. Studies have shown challenges in interobserver agreement, particularly for subtle or gradual changes, which may result in inconsistent conclusions about . Complementing with statistical analyses has been recommended to mitigate this, but it remains a core limitation of the approach. Finally, multiple baseline designs are less suitable for rapid-onset interventions or scenarios where extending baselines raises ethical concerns, such as withholding from participants experiencing distress or . In cases involving vulnerable populations, like those with severe behavioral issues, the staggered timeline may prolong exposure to problematic conditions, conflicting with principles of beneficence and justice in .

Validity Considerations

Threats to Validity

In multiple baseline designs, threats to arise when alternative explanations for observed behavioral changes cannot be ruled out, potentially the attribution of effects to the . These threats are particularly relevant due to the staggered introduction of interventions across tiers (e.g., behaviors, subjects, or settings), where coincidental factors could align with changes and mimic intervention outcomes. Maturation and history threats occur when biological, environmental, or external events produce changes that coincide with the staggered phase changes, simulating intervention effects across multiple tiers. Maturation involves ongoing processes such as developmental growth or fatigue that alter over time, while encompasses discrete events like environmental disruptions (e.g., a school holiday or family stressor) that impact one or more tiers at the moment of implementation. In concurrent designs, where all tiers run simultaneously, a history event affecting all tiers equally might be detectable through across-tier comparisons, but tier-specific events could still threaten validity if they align precisely with staggering. Nonconcurrent designs, with non-overlapping tiers, face heightened risk from history threats because the lack of synchronization makes it harder to rule out independent events coinciding with each phase change. For instance, if an external event like a policy change occurs just as the second tier receives the intervention, it could explain the change without invoking the treatment. Testing effects represent another concern, stemming from the cumulative impact of repeated assessments or session procedures on behavior, independent of the . These effects, such as from frequent observations or reactivity to the process (e.g., participant altering responses), can accumulate over sessions and produce changes that appear timed with introduction. In multiple baseline designs, this is plausible if the number of sessions varies across tiers but still leads to similar patterns of change upon staggering, making it difficult to distinguish from effects. For example, prolonged to might naturally reduce disruptive behaviors in later tiers, replicating the apparent success without actual efficacy. Both concurrent and nonconcurrent variations are susceptible, though within-tier replications with differing session lengths can reduce plausibility if the pattern holds inconsistently with testing accumulation. Selection bias threatens validity when baselines across tiers (e.g., subjects or settings) differ systematically due to non-random assignment or inherent participant characteristics, leading to differential responsiveness that confounds attribution. If one or setting starts with a more or reactive —perhaps because of pre-existing differences in severity or —the staggered changes might reflect these disparities rather than the 's impact. This is especially problematic in designs across subjects or settings, where uncontrolled selection could result in tiers that are not truly comparable, violating the assumption of . are crucial here, as variability in initial data paths can exacerbate perceptions of if not adequately documented. Instrumentation threats involve inconsistencies in that drift over time, such as observer fatigue, changes in scoring criteria, or issues, which can artifactually create the appearance of effects. Observer drift, where raters become more lenient or strict across sessions, might align with changes and produce upward or downward trends mimicking behavioral improvement or decline. This threat affects both concurrent and nonconcurrent designs, as repeated measurements over extended periods increase the likelihood of such drifts, particularly in long baselines required for staggering. Ensuring consistent measurement is vital, but without procedural safeguards, these changes can undermine the design's ability to demonstrate functional relations.

Strategies for Managing Threats

To enhance in multiple baseline designs, researchers implement multiple replications across at least three to four tiers (), with staggered introductions that provide sufficient temporal lag—typically several sessions or days—between changes to demonstrate experimental and rule out coincidental extraneous events or chance occurrences. This replication requirement ensures that behavior changes covary predictably with the across tiers, as recommended in standards for single-case experimental designs. Additionally, clear criteria for , such as low variability (e.g., data points within 20% of the mean) and absence of systematic trend over a minimum of three to five consecutive points, establish reliable predictions of behavior that are then contradicted by effects, further mitigating threats from unpredictable fluctuations. Instrumentation threats, such as observer drift or inconsistent , are addressed through systematic interobserver (IOA) checks, where at least two independent observers collect data simultaneously on a minimum of 20% of sessions per ( and intervention) across all tiers, targeting levels of 80% or higher using exact or interval-by-interval methods. This practice verifies data reliability and prevents systematic errors in behavioral recording, a standard procedure in research. Researcher and observer bias are minimized by randomizing the staggering order of interventions across tiers—such as through blocked or simple randomization of start points—to counter time-related confounds like maturation or history, ensuring that the sequence is not predetermined by convenience. Complementing this, blind assessments involve data collectors or analysts who are masked to the study phase, tier assignments, or intervention timing, reducing expectancy effects during observation or visual analysis. External validity concerns, including limited generalizability from maturation or selection threats, can be managed by extending baseline durations variably across tiers (e.g., 5–15 sessions) to allow for natural developmental trends before , while comparing intervention outcomes to normative from similar populations provides for broader applicability beyond the study sample.

Practical Applications

Participant Recruitment

In multiple baseline designs, particularly those implemented across subjects, researchers often target heterogeneous groups to enhance the generalizability of findings through replication across diverse individuals, such as varying ages, diagnoses, or behavioral profiles. Recruitment typically occurs via referrals from professionals in clinical or educational settings, including teachers, parents, or staff, who identify potential participants exhibiting socially significant behaviors like self-injurious actions or hyperactivity. This approach allows for purposive selection that aligns with the study's goals while accommodating real-world applied contexts. Sampling strategies in these designs commonly employ convenience or purposive methods to identify participants whose behaviors permit stable, replicable baselines essential for demonstrating experimental . Convenience draws from readily available individuals in accessible settings, such as classrooms or outpatient clinics, whereas purposive sampling focuses on those with specific characteristics that facilitate clear and staggered introduction. These strategies ensure that baselines can be established without undue influence from external variables, supporting the design's . Inclusion criteria emphasize the severity and measurability of the target behavior, requiring it to be deviant, disruptive, or clinically significant—such as or bedwetting—while allowing for stable data collection over multiple sessions. Participants are typically excluded if their condition demands immediate , as prolonging the baseline phase for design purposes could raise ethical concerns about withholding effective . This selection process prioritizes behaviors that are observable and quantifiable, enabling reliable prediction and evaluation of intervention effects. Informed consent procedures in multiple baseline studies must clearly explain the staggered nature of the intervention, including potential delays in treatment access for some participants to establish sequential baselines. This addresses ethical implications of the , ensuring participants or guardians understand the rationale for timing variations and the commitment to eventual intervention delivery, thereby balancing rigor with participant welfare.

Case Examples

One illustrative case of a multiple baseline design across behaviors in (ABA) involved three children exhibiting non-compliance and related deviant behaviors, such as and crying. Baseline data were collected concurrently on (defined as responding correctly to adult requests) and untreated deviant behaviors like for all participants. Differential reinforcement of was introduced in a staggered manner across the children, with no direct intervention applied to aggression initially. Compliance rates increased immediately following the introduction of reinforcement for each child, while levels decreased covariantly without targeted treatment, demonstrating the intervention's broader impact. Graphically, the data were presented in a multiple baseline format showing stable but low baselines (around 20-40% across children) with abrupt level changes to near 100% upon onset, replicated across tiers. Aggression, measured as occurrences per session, exhibited variable but elevated baselines (5-15 incidents) that declined to zero or near-zero post- intervention, with no overlap between and phases, confirming experimental through replication of effects. In a school-based application across subjects, a multiple probe multiple baseline design evaluated simultaneous prompting to teach skills to four students using base-ten manipulatives. Baselines were established for solving three basic facts (e.g., 4+2=6) across all students, with probes conducted daily but intervention staggered sequentially for each. The prompting procedure involved presenting the task, providing a model and verbal prompt simultaneously during training sessions (three per week), followed by independent probes. Three of the four students achieved mastery (100% accuracy on algorithm steps and sums across three consecutive sessions) within 10-15 training sessions, with the fourth showing progress before withdrawal. The graphs displayed flat, low baseline performance (0-20% accuracy) for all facts across students, with sharp level increases to 80-100% accuracy immediately after intervention introduction for each, replicated without overlap in subsequent tiers; maintenance probes at 2-6 weeks post-training confirmed sustained high levels (90-100%), while generalization to novel facts reached 70-90% without further instruction. A case demonstrating multiple baseline across settings utilized systematic exposure therapy to address extreme social withdrawal, akin to anxiety-driven avoidance, in two children across classroom and playground environments. Baselines measured social interaction (percentage of time engaging with peers) and self-talk (avoidant internal monologue) concurrently in both settings. Exposure was implemented sequentially: gradual, therapist-guided interactions in the first setting (e.g., classroom), then replicated in the second (playground) after baseline stability. For both children, interaction increased from near-zero baselines to 40-60% in the treated setting, with self-talk dropping from 70-85% to 20%, and effects replicated upon extension to the second setting. Visual analysis of the graphs revealed stable low interaction baselines (0-10%) and high self-talk across settings, with immediate, non-overlapping level changes post-exposure ( rising steeply, self-talk falling), replicated in the second setting; follow-up data at 5-9 months showed maintenance of gains (30-50% ), establishing the design's validity through staggered introductions and setting-specific replications.

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