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Triangular distribution

The triangular distribution is a continuous probability distribution characterized by a triangular-shaped probability density function (PDF), defined by three parameters: the lower bound a, the upper bound b (with a \leq b), and the mode c (with a \leq c \leq b), representing the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of a random variable, respectively.^[1]^[2]^[3] This distribution is particularly useful in scenarios with limited data, where expert judgment provides estimates for these bounds and peak, serving as a simple model for uncertainty or variability when more complex distributions cannot be fitted.^[4] The PDF of the triangular distribution is piecewise linear: for a \leq x \leq c, it is f(x) = \frac{2(x - a)}{(b - a)(c - a)}; for c < x \leq b, it is f(x) = \frac{2(b - x)}{(b - a)(b - c)}; and zero otherwise.^[1]^[2] The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is similarly piecewise: F(x) = 0 for x < a, F(x) = \frac{(x - a)^2}{(b - a)(c - a)} for a \leq x \leq c, F(x) = 1 - \frac{(b - x)^2}{(b - a)(b - c)} for c < x \leq b, and F(x) = 1 for x > b.^[1] Its mean is \frac{a + b + c}{3}, and variance is \frac{a^2 + b^2 + c^2 - ab - ac - bc}{18}.^[1]^[2] The distribution is symmetric when c = \frac{a + b}{2}, positively skewed when c < \frac{a + b}{2}, negatively skewed when c > \frac{a + b}{2}, with excess kurtosis of -\frac{3}{5}.^[3] Commonly applied in fields requiring approximations with sparse data, the triangular distribution models task durations in project management via three-point estimating techniques, such as in PERT-like methods where optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates define a, c, and b.^[5]^[6] It is also used in Monte Carlo simulations for business and economic forecasting, natural phenomena modeling, audio signal dithering (often the symmetric case), and Type B uncertainty evaluations in metrology, where its standard deviation \frac{b - a}{2\sqrt{6}} (for symmetric case with mode at midpoint) provides a less conservative estimate than the uniform distribution.^[1]^[4]^[7]

Definition and Basic Properties

Probability Density Function

The triangular distribution is a continuous probability distribution supported on the closed interval [a, b], characterized by three parameters: the lower bound a, the upper bound b, and the mode c where a \leq c \leq b.^[8] The probability density function (PDF) of the triangular distribution, denoted f(x), is given by

f(x) = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{if } x < a \text{ or } x > b, \\ \frac{2(x - a)}{(b - a)(c - a)} & \text{if } a \leq x < c, \\ \frac{2(b - x)}{(b - a)(b - c)} & \text{if } c \leq x \leq b. \end{cases}

^[8] The PDF is zero outside the support [a, b], rises linearly from 0 at x = a to its peak value of \frac{2}{b - a} at the mode x = c, and then falls linearly to 0 at x = b. This piecewise linear form ensures that the total area under the curve integrates to 1, satisfying the fundamental property of a PDF.^[8] Graphically, the PDF traces a triangle with its base spanning [a, b] and vertex at the mode c, providing a simple visual representation of probability density that peaks at the most likely outcome.^[8] Conceptually, this triangular shape arises in scenarios involving combinations of uniform distributions, such as the sum of two independent uniforms yielding a symmetric case.^[9] A standardized version of the triangular distribution rescales the support to [0, 1] by setting a = 0 and b = 1, while allowing the mode c to vary between 0 and 1; the corresponding PDF adjusts accordingly to maintain the triangular form on this unit interval.^[10]

Cumulative Distribution Function

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the triangular distribution, denoted F(x), gives the probability that a random variable X takes a value less than or equal to x, where X has support on [a, b] with mode at c such that a \leq c \leq b. It is defined piecewise as

F(x) = \begin{cases} 0 & x < a \\ \frac{(x - a)^2}{(b - a)(c - a)} & a \leq x < c \\ 1 - \frac{(b - x)^2}{(b - a)(b - c)} & c \leq x \leq b \\ 1 & x > b. \end{cases}

^[8]^[11] This CDF is derived by integrating the probability density function (PDF) of the triangular distribution from the lower bound a to x. For a \leq x < c, the integral of the left segment of the PDF yields the quadratic form \frac{(x - a)^2}{(b - a)(c - a)}, reflecting the linear increase in density from a to c. Similarly, for c \leq x \leq b, integrating the right segment of the PDF produces $1 - \frac{(b - x)^2}{(b - a)(b - c)}, accounting for the linear decrease from c to b. The full integration over [a, b] confirms that F(b) = 1, ensuring proper normalization.^[8] The quadratic segments of the CDF arise because the PDF is piecewise linear, so its antiderivative is piecewise quadratic. Depending on the mode's position c, the CDF rises more slowly in the initial segment if c is closer to a (shorter left tail) and then more steeply toward 1, or vice versa if c is closer to b. This curvature captures the accumulating probability, starting concave up from 0 at x = a and ending concave down approaching 1 at x = b.^[11] The CDF exhibits key properties essential for a continuous distribution: it is continuous everywhere, including at the mode c where the left- and right-hand limits match, specifically F(c) = \frac{c - a}{b - a}. It is also strictly monotonically increasing on [a, b] since the PDF is positive in this interval, ensuring a one-to-one mapping from probabilities to outcomes. These traits make the CDF differentiable almost everywhere, except at the kink point c.^[8] In practice, the CDF facilitates computation of interval probabilities, such as P(a < X \leq d) = F(d) - F(a) = F(d) for d \in [a, b], which is particularly useful in simulation and risk analysis to assess the likelihood of outcomes within subintervals of the support. For example, if d falls in [a, c), this probability equals \frac{(d - a)^2}{(b - a)(c - a)}, providing a closed-form expression without further integration.^[11]

Moments and Characteristic Function

Mean, Variance, and Skewness

The mean \mu of the triangular distribution, defined on the interval [a, b] with mode c where a \leq c \leq b, is given by

\mu = \frac{a + b + c}{3}.

^[8]^[12] This formula arises from evaluating the first moment via integration: E[X] = \int_a^b x f(x) \, dx, where the probability density function f(x) is piecewise over [a, c] and [c, b], leading to the weighted average of the bounds and mode after performing the definite integrals.^[8] The variance \sigma^2 is derived from the second moment E[X^2] = \int_a^b x^2 f(x) \, dx, computed similarly by piecewise integration, followed by \sigma^2 = E[X^2] - \mu^2, resulting in

\sigma^2 = \frac{a^2 + b^2 + c^2 - ab - ac - bc}{18}.

^[8]^[12] Let V = a^2 + b^2 + c^2 - ab - ac - bc, so \sigma^2 = V/18; this expression quantifies the spread, with larger V indicating greater variability depending on the separation of a, b, and c.^[8] The skewness \gamma_1, measuring asymmetry via the standardized third central moment E[(X - \mu)^3]/\sigma^3, is

\gamma_1 = \frac{\sqrt{2} (a + b - 2c)(2a - b - c)(a - 2b + c)}{5 V^{3/2}}.

^[8]^[12] The third central moment is obtained by expanding E[(X - \mu)^3] = E[X^3] - 3\mu E[X^2] + 3\mu^2 E[X] - \mu^3, where E[X^3] requires integrating x^3 f(x) piecewise; the resulting skewness formula reflects the distribution's tail imbalance.^[12] The sign of \gamma_1 depends on c's position relative to the midpoint (a + b)/2: positive if c < (a + b)/2 (longer right tail), negative if c > (a + b)/2 (longer left tail), and zero if c = (a + b)/2.^[8] In the symmetric case where c = (a + b)/2, the mean simplifies to \mu = (a + b)/2, the variance to \sigma^2 = (b - a)^2/24, and skewness \gamma_1 = 0, illustrating a balanced, bell-like shape without asymmetry.^[8]^[12] For example, with a = 0, b = 1, c = 0.5, these yield \mu = 0.5, \sigma^2 = 1/24 \approx 0.0417, and \gamma_1 = 0, confirming uniformity in spread around the center.^[8]

Higher Moments and Characteristic Function

The k-th raw moment of a random variable X following the triangular distribution with parameters a < c < b is given by

E[X^k] = \frac{a^{k+2} - 2 a^k c^2 + 2 a^{k+1} c + b^{k+2} - 2 b^k c^2 + 2 b^{k+1} c - a^2 b^k + a^k b^2 + c^{k+2} - c^2 a^k - c^2 b^k + 2 a c b^k - 2 b c a^k}{(k+1)(k+2)(b - a)(c - a)(b - c)}

for k \geq 1./05%3A_Special_Distributions/5.24%3A_The_Triangle_Distribution) This expression arises from direct integration of x^k against the piecewise linear probability density function and simplifies to a rational function polynomial in the parameters. For k = 0, E[X^0] = 1 by definition. Higher raw moments build upon lower-order moments as foundational components in expansions. Central moments of order n, denoted \mu_n, are derived from the raw moments \mu_k' using the binomial relation

\mu_n = \sum_{j=0}^n \binom{n}{j} (-\mu_1)^{n-j} \mu_j',

where \mu_1 = E[X] is the mean. This allows computation of skewness (n=3), kurtosis (n=4), and beyond, providing measures of tail behavior and peakedness for the distribution. For instance, the fourth central moment yields the kurtosis, which for the triangular distribution is fixed at -0.6 (platykurtic), independent of parameters.^[8] The characteristic function \phi(t) = E[e^{itX}] of the triangular distribution encapsulates all moments via its derivatives at t=0 and facilitates analysis in limit theorems, such as convolutions of independent variables. A closed-form expression is

\phi(t) = \frac{2 \left[ -c e^{i t a} + b e^{i t a} + b e^{i t c} + a e^{i t c} - a e^{i t b} + c e^{i t b} \right] }{(a - c)(a - b)(c - b) t^2}, \quad t \neq 0,

with \phi(0) = 1.^[8] This form results from integrating the Fourier transform over the piecewise density segments, yielding exponential terms adjusted for the linear rises and falls. The characteristic function relates to the moment-generating function M(t) = \phi(-i t), enabling exponential moment computations when analytic continuation is valid within the radius of convergence. In applications, the characteristic function proves useful for deriving the distribution of sums of triangular variables, as the convolution theorem simplifies to products of \phi(t), aiding central limit approximations for large samples.^[8]

Parameter Estimation

Method of Moments

The method of moments for estimating the parameters a, b, and c of the triangular distribution involves equating the first few sample moments to their theoretical counterparts. The theoretical mean is \mu = (a + b + c)/3 and the variance is \sigma^2 = (a^2 + b^2 + c^2 - ab - ac - bc)/18.^[13]^[14] Let m_1 denote the sample mean and m_2 the sample second moment about the origin. Matching the first moment yields the equation \hat{a} + \hat{b} + \hat{c} = 3 m_1. For the second moment, the relation is \hat{a}^2 + \hat{b}^2 + \hat{c}^2 - \hat{a} \hat{b} - \hat{a} \hat{c} - \hat{b} \hat{c} = 18 (m_2 - m_1^2). These equations provide a system to solve for the parameters, often requiring the third sample moment (skewness) for the full set of three unknowns, as the triangular distribution has three parameters.^[13]^[15] A common practical approach assumes a and b are known from domain knowledge or data bounds (e.g., minimum and maximum observed values), reducing the problem to estimating c. In this case, the mode estimate is \hat{c} = 3 m_1 - a - b, which can then be verified by substituting into the variance equation to check consistency with the sample variance. If all parameters are unknown, numerical methods such as solvers are used to minimize the squared differences between sample and theoretical moments, incorporating skewness for the third equation.^[13]^[14]^[15] This estimation faces challenges due to the nonlinear system of equations, which can be non-trivial to solve analytically and often requires computational tools or precomputed tables. Additionally, method of moments estimators are generally biased in small samples, as sample moments may not accurately reflect population values, and the approach can be sensitive to outliers because raw sample moments and extreme values heavily influence the estimates, exacerbated by the piecewise linear nature of the density.^[15]^[16]

Maximum Likelihood Estimation

The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the parameters of the triangular distribution, denoted as a < c < b, is based on the probability density function, which serves as the foundation for constructing the likelihood function from an independent and identically distributed sample x_1, \dots, x_n. The log-likelihood is given by

l(\theta) = \sum_{i=1}^n \log f(x_i \mid a, b, c),

where \theta = (a, b, c) and the density f is piecewise: f(x) = \frac{2(x - a)}{(b - a)(c - a)} for a \leq x \leq c, and f(x) = \frac{2(b - x)}{(b - a)(b - c)} for c < x \leq b, assuming all observations lie within [a, b]. This expression simplifies to

l(\theta) = n \log 2 - n \log(b - a) + \sum_{x_i \leq c} \left[ \log(x_i - a) - \log(c - a) \right] + \sum_{x_i > c} \left[ \log(b - x_i) - \log(b - c) \right],

with the piecewise nature arising from the position of each x_i relative to the mode c.^[17] Given the bounded support [a, b], the likelihood is zero if a > \min_i x_i or b < \max_i x_i; thus, the MLEs are \hat{a} = \min_i x_i and \hat{b} = \max_i x_i, as increasing a toward the minimum or decreasing b toward the maximum increases the likelihood without violating the support condition. If the mode estimate falls outside [\hat{a}, \hat{b}], it is typically adjusted to the nearest boundary to ensure validity, though this occurs rarely under standard assumptions.^[17] With \hat{a} and \hat{b} fixed, estimation of \hat{c} requires maximizing the profile log-likelihood with respect to c \in (\hat{a}, \hat{b}). The score function is

\frac{\partial l}{\partial c} = -\frac{n_1}{c - \hat{a}} + \frac{n_2}{\hat{b} - c},

where n_1 is the number of observations \leq c and n_2 = n - n_1 is the number > c. Setting this to zero yields the condition

\frac{n_1}{c - \hat{a}} = \frac{n_2}{\hat{b} - c},

which balances the density contributions from the left and right sides of the mode. Solving explicitly gives

\hat{c} = \frac{n_1 \hat{b} + n_2 \hat{a}}{n},

but since n_1 depends discontinuously on c, the solution must be found by considering intervals between the ordered sample points x_{(1)} \leq \cdots \leq x_{(n)}: for each possible k = 1, \dots, n-1, set n_1 = k, compute the candidate c_k, and check if x_{(k)} \leq c_k < x_{(k+1)}; the valid c_k with the highest likelihood is selected, or boundary values are evaluated if needed.^[18] Due to the lack of a closed-form solution and the piecewise structure, numerical optimization is typically employed, such as the MM (majorization-minimization) algorithm, which constructs a surrogate function that is easier to maximize iteratively and guarantees convergence to a local maximum. Newton-Raphson methods can also be applied by evaluating the score and Hessian at trial points, with initialization often from method-of-moments estimates to avoid poor local optima. The likelihood surface may be multimodal, particularly for small n, necessitating careful starting values.^[17] Under standard regularity conditions (interior parameters and sufficient sample size), the MLE \hat{\theta} is consistent, asymptotically efficient, and normally distributed as n \to \infty, with covariance matrix given by the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. The Fisher information elements involve expectations of second derivatives of the log-density, ensuring \sqrt{n} (\hat{\theta} - \theta) converges to \mathcal{N}(0, I(\theta)^{-1}), where I(\theta) is the information matrix.^[17]

Special Cases and Relationships

Mode at a Bound

When the mode parameter c equals the lower bound a or the upper bound b, the triangular distribution degenerates into a form with a linear probability density function over the support [a, b], forming a right or left triangle shape, respectively. For the case c = a (mode at the lower bound), the PDF is

f(x) = \frac{2(b - x)}{(b - a)^2}, \quad a \leq x \leq b,

describing a linear decrease from its maximum value of $2/(b - a) at x = a to 0 at x = b. The mean is \mu = (2a + b)/3, and the variance is \sigma^2 = (b - a)^2 / 18.^[1]^[19]^[14] For the case c = b (mode at the upper bound), the PDF is

f(x) = \frac{2(x - a)}{(b - a)^2}, \quad a \leq x \leq b,

describing a linear increase from 0 at x = a to its maximum value of $2/(b - a) at x = b. The mean is \mu = (a + 2b)/3, and the variance is again \sigma^2 = (b - a)^2 / 18.^[1]^[19]^[14] The distribution with mode at the lower bound (c = a) arises as the distribution of |U - V|, where U and V are independent Uniform(a, b) random variables; the difference U - V follows a symmetric triangular distribution centered at 0, and the absolute value folds the support to [0, b - a], yielding the linear decreasing PDF after scaling. These boundary cases apply in modeling situations where the most probable outcome is the minimum or maximum value, such as optimistic or pessimistic estimates in risk analysis, with no point mass at the mode due to the continuous nature of the distribution.

Symmetric Triangular Distribution

The symmetric triangular distribution occurs when the mode m of the general triangular distribution equals the midpoint (a + b)/2, producing an isosceles triangular shape that is symmetric about its peak. This configuration assumes a < b, with the density rising linearly from the lower bound a to the mode and falling linearly to the upper bound b. Unlike asymmetric cases, the symmetry implies no skewness, making it suitable for scenarios where uncertainty is balanced around a central value. The probability density function for the symmetric triangular distribution is

f(x) = \begin{cases} \frac{4(x - a)}{(b - a)^2} & a \leq x < m, \\ \frac{4(b - x)}{(b - a)^2} & m \leq x \leq b, \end{cases}

where m = (a + b)/2 and f(x) = 0 otherwise. This piecewise linear form ensures the total area under the curve integrates to 1, with the peak height of $2/(b - a) at x = m. The first three central moments reflect the symmetry: the mean is (a + b)/2, the variance is (b - a)^2 / [24](/page/24), and the skewness is 0. These moments position the distribution centrally at the midpoint, with spread scaling quadratically with the range b - a, and no directional bias.^[20] The symmetric triangular distribution corresponds to the distribution of (U + V)/2, where U and V are independent uniform random variables on [a, b]. This arises because the sum U + V follows an Irwin–Hall distribution for n=2, which is triangular on [2a, 2b]; scaling by $1/2 preserves the triangular shape while centering it on [a, b]. Owing to its bell-like profile, the symmetric triangular distribution approximates the normal distribution for large ranges b - a, providing a computationally simple surrogate without requiring normality assumptions. It is frequently employed to represent symmetric uncertainty in measurement and simulation contexts, such as Type B evaluations where bounds are known but the true value is equally likely on either side of the mode.^[20]

Random Variate Generation

Inversion Method

The inversion method for generating random variates from the triangular distribution utilizes the inverse cumulative distribution function (CDF), which is available in closed form for this distribution.^[21] To generate a random variate X from a triangular distribution with parameters a (minimum), c (mode), and b (maximum), where a < c < b, proceed as follows. First, generate a uniform random variate U \sim \text{Uniform}(0,1). Compute p = \frac{c - a}{b - a}. If U < p, set X = a + \sqrt{U (b - a)(c - a)}; otherwise, set X = b - \sqrt{(1 - U)(b - a)(b - c)}. This yields the inverse CDF F^{-1}(U), ensuring X follows the desired triangular distribution exactly.^[21] The method assumes a < b to avoid division by zero in computing p; degenerate cases where a = b are not supported under this parameterization.^[21] This approach offers key advantages, including exact generation without approximation errors due to the closed-form inverse, and computational simplicity requiring only basic arithmetic and square root operations, making it efficient for the general case with arbitrary a, b, and c.^[22]^[21]

Convolution Approach

The convolution approach to generating random variates from the triangular distribution leverages the fact that certain special cases of the distribution arise naturally from operations on uniform random variables, such as summation, differences, minima, or maxima, which can be extended to the general asymmetric case through weighted combinations. These methods exploit the probabilistic structure of the uniform distribution, as the probability density function (PDF) of the triangular distribution can be derived via convolution in specific scenarios, providing an intuitive generative mechanism based on uniform building blocks.^[23] For the general triangular distribution with parameters a < c < b, where a is the lower bound, b the upper bound, and c the mode, one efficient method uses two independent uniform random variables U, V \sim \text{Uniform}(0,1). Normalize the mode as \tilde{c} = (c - a)/(b - a), then generate the variate as

X = a + (b - a) \left[ (1 - \tilde{c}) \min(U, V) + \tilde{c} \max(U, V) \right].

This MINMAX method produces the desired distribution directly, as \min(U, V) corresponds to a triangular variate with mode at the lower bound, and \max(U, V) to one with mode at the upper bound, weighted by the position of c. The approach requires only two uniform draws and avoids explicit inversion of the cumulative distribution function (CDF).^[24] In special cases, the method simplifies to pure convolutions or order statistics of uniforms. For the symmetric triangular distribution (mode at the midpoint (a + b)/2), \tilde{c} = 0.5, so X = a + (b - a)(U + V)/2, where the sum U + V (normalized and scaled) yields the triangular PDF via convolution of two uniform densities, peaking at the center.^[23] For a mode at the lower bound (c = a, \tilde{c} = 0), X = a + (b - a) \min(U, V), equivalent to the distribution of the minimum of two i.i.d. uniforms on [a, b], with PDF decreasing linearly from a. Similarly, for mode at the upper bound (c = b, \tilde{c} = 1), X = a + (b - a) \max(U, V), the maximum of two uniforms, with PDF increasing to b. An alternative for the boundary case with mode at a (normalized to [0,1]) is the absolute difference |U - V|, which follows a triangular distribution on [0,1] via the convolution of the uniform density with its reflected version.^[25] This approach offers advantages in interpretability, as it ties the triangular variates directly to uniform operations familiar from order statistics and convolutions, facilitating understanding of the distribution's shape as a "smoothed" uniform. However, for highly asymmetric cases (e.g., \tilde{c} near 0 or 1), it may be less efficient than direct inversion due to the implicit weighting, though it remains computationally simple with fixed uniform draws.^[24]

Applications

Project Management and PERT

In project management, the triangular distribution is employed within the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to model the uncertain durations of tasks, using three expert-provided estimates: the optimistic time a, the most likely time c, and the pessimistic time b.^[26] This approach allows for probabilistic assessment of project timelines by representing task durations as random variables drawn from the triangular distribution defined by these parameters.^[27] PERT was developed in the late 1950s by the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Office to manage the complex Polaris nuclear submarine project, which involved coordinating thousands of tasks across multiple contractors.^[28] Originally, PERT utilized a beta distribution for task durations, approximating the mean as (a + 4c + b)/6 to emphasize the most likely estimate.^[28] The triangular distribution serves as a simplification of this beta model, employing the exact mean (a + b + c)/3 and requiring fewer assumptions, making it suitable for scenarios with limited historical data.^[29] The triangular distribution offers several advantages in PERT applications, including its simplicity in relying solely on expert judgments without needing extensive empirical data, and its ability to capture asymmetry in risk perceptions for task durations.^[26] It facilitates straightforward Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate project risks, particularly along the critical path.^[30] For instance, in critical path calculations, triangular distributions can be sampled to simulate multiple project scenarios; consider a simple network with tasks A (optimistic 2 days, most likely 3 days, pessimistic 5 days) and B (optimistic 1 day, most likely 4 days, pessimistic 6 days) in sequence. The simulated total durations would vary, allowing estimation of the probability that the project completes within 7 days by averaging outcomes from numerous iterations.^[26]

Business Simulations

The triangular distribution is widely employed in Monte Carlo simulations for business risk analysis, particularly when historical data is scarce and expert estimates are available for the minimum (a), maximum (b), and mode (c) parameters.^[31] This approach allows modelers to represent uncertain variables such as future sales volumes, where a might represent the pessimistic low forecast, b the optimistic high, and c the most expected outcome based on managerial judgment.^[32] By generating random variates from the distribution and propagating them through financial models, simulations quantify the range of possible outcomes, enabling better-informed decisions under uncertainty.^[33] In specialized software tools like @Risk (from Lumivero) and Crystal Ball (from Oracle), the triangular distribution is integrated to facilitate these simulations, often within Excel-based environments.^[34] For instance, in net present value (NPV) calculations for investment projects, cash flows or discount rates can be modeled as triangular variates to assess the probability of positive returns across thousands of iterations, highlighting risks like market volatility.^[35] These tools automate variate generation—typically via the inversion method—and provide outputs such as probability distributions of NPV, tornado charts for sensitivity analysis, and confidence intervals for key metrics.^[36] Compared to the uniform distribution, which assumes equal likelihood across the range and lacks a peak, the triangular distribution offers greater realism by emphasizing the mode, making it suitable for business scenarios where outcomes cluster around an expected value.^[37] Its parameterization is also simpler, requiring only three intuitive estimates rather than complex curve fitting.^[33] A practical example is inventory modeling, where demand is simulated using a triangular distribution to evaluate stockout risks; for rubber shipments to a plant, parameters might include a minimum of 200 tons, mode of 220 tons, and maximum of 360 tons, with Monte Carlo runs (e.g., 5,000 iterations) revealing the likelihood of shortages and associated costs like $60 per ton penalties.^[38] While less flexible than empirical distributions derived from actual historical data—which can capture nuanced shapes without assumptions—the triangular distribution enables faster simulations and is ideal for preliminary analyses or when data collection is impractical.^[39] This balance of simplicity and peaked structure makes it a staple in business applications, from supply chain optimization to financial forecasting.^[34]

Audio Dithering and Signal Processing

In audio dithering, triangular noise is added to the analog or high-resolution digital signal prior to quantization to mitigate distortion and linearize the overall transfer function. This noise follows a triangular probability density function (PDF) spanning one quantization step Δ, effectively randomizing the rounding errors that would otherwise introduce signal-dependent harmonics and nonlinearity. By decorrelating the quantization error from the input signal, the process converts potentially audible distortion into broadband noise that is less perceptible, particularly in low-level signals near the noise floor.^[40] The triangular PDF arises as the distribution of the sum of two independent uniform (rectangular PDF, or RPDF) noise sources, each spanning [-Δ/2, Δ/2], resulting in a triangular dither known as TPDF with support over [-Δ, Δ]. This construction ensures the noise spectrum is flat (white) and the error is uncorrelated with the input signal, eliminating harmonic content while maintaining a uniform power distribution across frequencies. The variance of this TPDF dither is given by

\sigma^2 = \frac{\Delta^2}{6},

derived from the convolution of the two uniform distributions, each with variance Δ²/12. The symmetric triangular distribution is the typical form used for TPDF in audio applications.^[40] Triangular dither has been employed in digital audio since the early development of PCM systems in the 1970s and became standard in the 1980s for formats like compact discs (CDs), where it was integrated into mastering processes to preserve audio fidelity during 16-bit quantization. It is preferred over unbounded distributions like Gaussian noise due to its finite support, which avoids excessive outliers that could cause clipping or require higher amplitude for equivalent decorrelation, while still achieving full linearization with minimal added noise power. In seminal work, this approach was formalized as optimal for non-subtractive dither in audio quantization.^[40] In analog-to-digital converters (ADCs), applying triangular dither to the input signal smooths the piecewise-linear transfer characteristic into an effectively continuous function, enhancing effective resolution for signals below 1 LSB and suppressing harmonic distortion products. For instance, a small sinusoidal input (e.g., 1 LSB amplitude) without dither exhibits prominent odd harmonics in the output spectrum; with appropriate triangular dither, these harmonics are reduced to near the noise floor, yielding a cleaner, more linear response suitable for audio and instrumentation applications.^[41]

Metrology

The triangular distribution is used in metrology for Type B evaluations of measurement uncertainty, where prior knowledge provides bounds and a most likely value for potential errors or biases. In such cases, it models the state-of-knowledge distribution for an input quantity, offering a standard uncertainty of \frac{b - a}{\sqrt{6}} for the symmetric case (mode at the midpoint), which is less conservative than the uniform distribution's \frac{b - a}{\sqrt{12}}. This approach, recommended in guidelines like the NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook, avoids overly pessimistic worst-case assumptions by incorporating expert judgment on the peak likelihood at zero bias.^[7]

References

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Triangular Distribution - MATLAB & Simulink - MathWorks
Its parameters are the minimum, maximum, and peak of the data. Common applications include business and economic simulations, project management planning, ...Parameters · Probability Density Function · Examples
[2]
An Introduction to the Triangular Distribution - Statology
Mar 28, 2021 · The triangular distribution is a probability distribution that is defined by three parameters: the minimum value (a), the maximum value (b) ...
[3]
https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Probability_Theory/Probability_Mathematical_Statistics_and_Stochastic_Processes_(Siegrist)/05:_Special_Distributions/5.24:_The_Triangle_Distribution
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Triangular Distribution - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics
Triangular distribution is defined as a statistical distribution used when there is a known relationship between variable data, but limited data available ...
[5]
Triangular Distribution vs Pert: Which is Best for Project Management?
Jan 5, 2021 · In this example, the Pert distribution has a skewness or asymmetry coefficient of 1.00 while the Triangular one has a coefficient of 0.56. ...
[6]
Triangular Distribution - Three-point estimating technique
Triangular distribution is a common formula used when there is insufficient historical data to estimate duration of an activity. It is based on three points ...
[7]
2.5.4.1. Standard deviations from assumed distributions
The triangular distribution leads to a less conservative estimate of uncertainty; i.e., it gives a smaller standard deviation than the uniform distribution.
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[PDF] Triangular distribution
A triangular distribution, denoted as X ∼ triangular(a,m,b), uses a minimum value a, a most likely value m, and a maximum value b.
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Modeling Background - Mobius Wiki
Mar 4, 2014 · The triangular distribution could arise, for example, as the sum of two independent uniform random variables. If X and Y are independent ...
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Geometry of deviation measures for triangular distributions - Frontiers
In Table 1, we compute mean, median and standard deviation for standard triangle distribution (a = 0, b = 1) for c = 0, c = 1/4, c = 1/2, c = 3/4, and c = 1.
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[PDF] Hand-book on STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS for experimentalists
30.2 Derivation of distribution . ... (µ+ Γ)/2 is distributed according to the triangular distribution. If ξ1 and ξ2 are uniformly distributed between zero ...
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Triangular Distribution -- from Wolfram MathWorld
(8). It has skewness and kurtosis excess given by. gamma_1, = (sqrt(2)(a+b-2c)(2a-b-c. (9). gamma_2, = -3/5. (10). See also. Triangle Function, Uniform ...
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Method of Moments: Triangular Distribution
Describes how to estimate the a, b, and c parameters of the triangular distribution that fits a set of data using the method of moments approach in Excel.
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Triangle Distribution Math
Dec 12, 2022 · Method of Moments. E(x)=a+b+c3. c=3E(x)−a−b ... Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The procedure for maximum likelihood estimation involves ...
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[PDF] estimating parameters of the triangular distribution using non
2 APPROACH AND RESULTS In the case of the triangular distribution, the first three moments (mean, variance, and skewness) can be expressed in terms of the ...
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1.4 - Method of Moments | STAT 415 - STAT ONLINE
The method of moments involves equating sample moments with theoretical moments. So, let's start by making sure we recall the definitions of theoretical ...
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[PDF] Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Triangular and Polygonal ... - arXiv
Feb 13, 2016 · Abstract. Triangular distributions are a well-known class of distributions that are often used as elementary example of a probability model.
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[PDF] triangle: Distribution Functions and Parameter Estimates for the ...
Dec 13, 2022 · Description Provides the ``r, q, p, and d'' distribution functions for the triangle distribution. Also in- cludes maximum likelihood estimation ...
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Triangular Distribution - RocFall2 Documentation - Rocscience
For a left triangular distribution, the mode = minimum, and the mean = (2*minimum + maximum) / 3. For a right triangular distribution, the mode = maximum, and ...
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[PDF] Theorem The difference of two independent standard uniform ...
Theorem The difference of two independent standard uniform random variables has the standard trianglular distribution. Proof Let X1 and X2 be independent ...
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[PDF] Trapezoidal and triangular distributions for Type B evaluation of ...
Feb 26, 2007 · We show that triangular and rectangular distributions are special cases of the trapezoidal distribution. Then we derive the moment generating ...
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[PDF] Handbook on probability distributions - Rice Statistics
From the density, we can derive its distribution function. F(x) = β(a, b, x) β(a, b). , where x ∈ [0,1] and β(., ., .) denotes the incomplete beta function.
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[PDF] Theorem Random variates from the triangular distribution with ...
Proof The triangular(a, c, b) distribution has probability density function f(x) =... 2(x-a). (b-a)(c-a) a<x<c. 2(b-x). (b-a)(b-c) c ≤ x<b and ...
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[PDF] Generating Random Variables and Stochastic Processes
Advantages of the Inverse Transform Method. There are two principal advantages to the inverse transform method: 1. Monotonicity: we have already seen how this ...
[25]
[PDF] Lecture 5: Conditional Distributions and Functions of Jointly
Figure 5B. Convolution of Two Uniform Random Variables Yields a Triangular. Distribution. Example 5.5. Suppose X and Y are independent random variables both ...
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A new method to simulate the triangular distribution - ScienceDirect
A new method is developed to simulate the triangular distribution. The result is of interest from a practical as well as a theoretical viewpoint.
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Project schedule risk analysis - PMI
There are two main approaches to handling the schedule risk: Monte Carlo simulation and PERT. The Monte Carlo approach is a powerful tool, while PERT is ...
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Project Management - Uncertainty
Project Management · Example · Data · Critical Path · Update · Network ... The triangular distribution is used in our first example. An illustration of ...
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Better Project Management Through Beta Distribution - iSixSigma
Feb 25, 2011 · During the late 1950s, when the U.S. Navy was working on the Polaris nuclear submarine project, the Navy's Special Projects Office developed a ...<|control11|><|separator|>
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The Triangular Distribution as a Proxy for the Beta Distribution ... - jstor
The beta distribution is seen as a suitable model in risk analysis because it provides a wide variety of distributional shapes over a finite interval.
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[PDF] Project Schedule Risk Assessment
Mar 1, 1995 · The triangular distribution is commonly used because it is simple ... Project Management Institute. 1987. Risk Man- agement. Project ...
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Monte Carlo Simulation Provides Insights to Manage Risks
May 28, 2021 · Triangular: The user defines the minimum, most likely, and maximum values. Variables that could be described by a triangular distribution ...
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Improving Project and Business Confidence using Monte Carlo ...
Apr 2, 2025 · The most commonly used probability distribution used for modeling project and business uncertainty is the Triangular distribution, so-called ...
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How Does Monte Carlo Simulation Work? - Vose Software
The Triangle distribution interprets the three input values with straight lines to form a triangular shape, hence its name. There are many different ...
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Monte Carlo Simulation software: Risk analysis and assessment
Variables that could be described by a triangular distribution include past sales history per unit of time and inventory levels. PERT. The user defines the ...A Forecast Analysis Tool... · Common Probability... · Random Sampling Versus Best...
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[PDF] Using Monte Carlo Simulation for a Capital Budgeting Project - IMA
Monte Carlo simulation helps visualize risk by mapping all project outcomes, using a spreadsheet tool to estimate probability of success in discounted cash ...
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Use Monte Carlo Simulation to Manage Schedule Risk - iSixSigma
Apr 4, 2016 · The following figure is an example of a triangular distribution of an activity that was simulated in Crystal Ball. Commonly used ...
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When do I take which distribution? - Wehrspohn - Risk Management
The triangular and PERT distributions are an important alternative to the uniform distribution when designing the range of possible losses from a risk. Here, ...
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Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Exercise to Teach ... - PubsOnLine
Feb 25, 2019 · A triangular distribution could be used to model monthly rubber demand. Values of approximately 200, 220, and 360 tons for minimum, most likely, ...Missing: stockouts | Show results with:stockouts
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Why triangular distributions are used as inputs for Monte Carlo ...
Jun 28, 2017 · Triangular distribution is used for when you have no idea what the distribution is but you have some idea what the minimum value is for the variable.
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[PDF] A Theory of Non-Subtractive Dither - Robert Wannamaker
(44) and the knowledge that TPDF dither has a variance of ∆2/6, we find using Eq. (20) that the autocorrelation function of the dither under consideration.
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[PDF] AN-804 Improving A/D Converter Performance Using Dither
What has been accomplished by adding dither is an effective linearization of the ADC transfer curve. A power spectrum of the output would show that the harmonic ...