Cribbage
Cribbage is a card game primarily for two players—though adaptable for three or four—played with a standard 52-card deck and scored using a cribbage board with pegs to track points.[1] The objective is to be the first to reach 121 points by forming scoring combinations during the play (pegging) phase and in the hand and crib, including pairs, runs, flushes, and totals of 15 or 31.[1] Invented in early 17th-century England, it combines elements of strategy, memory, and luck, making it one of the oldest continuously played card games in the English-speaking world.[2] Originating as a derivation of the earlier game noddy, cribbage was created by English poet and playwright Sir John Suckling around the 1630s, with the earliest printed rules appearing in England by the mid-17th century.[2] The game quickly gained popularity among the English aristocracy[3] and has endured with minimal changes, spreading to North America and becoming a staple in social and military settings, such as among American submariners during World War II.[2] Its distinctive cribbage board, often wooden with 121 holes, allows players to "peg" points visually, adding a tactile element that distinguishes it from other card games.[1] In standard two-player rules, the dealer shuffles and deals six cards to each player, who then discards two face-down to form the shared "crib"—an extra hand belonging to the dealer.[1] The non-dealer cuts the deck to reveal the starter card, which can yield immediate points if it is a jack (two points to the dealer).[1] During the pegging phase, players alternate laying cards face-up, announcing cumulative totals up to 31, and score for interim combinations like 15 (two points), pairs (two points), runs (one point per card), or a "go" (one point when a player cannot play without exceeding 31).[1] Scoring concludes with the "show," where each player tallies their four-card hand plus the starter for 15s, pairs, runs, flushes (four points for a four-card hand of the same suit, five points if the starter matches that suit; five points in the crib only if all four cards and the starter match), and "his nobs" (one point for holding a jack of the starter's suit).[1] The crib is scored last by the dealer, and the deal alternates until one player reaches 121 points, at which point the game ends—though variants like playing to 61 or rules for "skunking" (penalizing a lurch, or heavy loss) add strategic depth.[1]History
Origins
Cribbage is traditionally attributed to the invention of the English poet and courtier Sir John Suckling in the 1630s or 1640s.[4] This attribution stems from historical accounts recorded by the antiquarian John Aubrey in his Brief Lives, where he states that Suckling devised the game and distributed specially marked packs of cards to gaming establishments across England to gain an advantage in play. As a notorious gambler and member of the Cavalier circle, Suckling popularized the game among the English aristocracy during a period when card games were central to social and wagering activities.[5] The game evolved from the earlier English card game Noddy, which had been played since at least the late 16th century and featured similar scoring for card combinations such as pairs, runs, and sums of 15.[6] Unlike Noddy, which relied on a simple trump suit and a scoring board for points up to 31, Cribbage introduced the innovative "crib" mechanic—a separate hand formed by players discarding cards, which is scored by the dealer after the main hands.[4] This addition allowed for deeper strategic depth in forming high-scoring combinations while maintaining Noddy's core elements of pegging during play and hand evaluation.[7] In its original form, Cribbage used a five-card deal to each player, with two cards discarded to the crib, leaving three cards in hand for play and scoring.[7] This version, aimed at reaching 61 points, emphasized concise hands and rapid play, differing from the later six-card variant that became more widespread.[7] Early documentation of Cribbage appears in 17th-century English literature on gaming, notably in Charles Cotton's The Compleat Gamester (1674), which describes the rules in detail within a guide to fashionable pastimes and gambling pursuits.[8] The game quickly gained traction in taverns and courts as a wagering staple, reflecting the era's enthusiasm for strategic card play among gentlemen.[4] A dedicated cribbage board for pegging scores emerged later as an accessory, supplementing initial tallies kept by hand or memory.[7]Development and Popularity
Following its invention by the English poet Sir John Suckling in the early 17th century, cribbage underwent significant refinements in gameplay and scoring mechanisms during the subsequent decades. Early descriptions in Charles Cotton's The Compleat Gamester (1674) outlined the five-card variant, though updated editions through the 18th century and period rule compilations reflect the growing favor of the six-card version for two-player games, offering more strategic depth through additional discards to the crib and extended hand evaluation, as evidenced in surviving play records from English gaming circles.[8][9] The cribbage board emerged in the late 17th century as an essential tool for accurate score tracking, replacing informal methods like tallies or verbal counts in games aiming for 61 points. Initially resembling nautical traverse boards—reflecting the game's appeal to seafarers—these early boards featured linear tracks of holes for pegs, evolving into the familiar continuous layout by the early 18th century to accommodate scores up to 61 or, less commonly, 121 points in longer matches. This innovation, documented in gaming treatises and artifact collections, facilitated fair play in social and wagering contexts, solidifying cribbage's place in English leisure.[10] Cribbage's popularity surged in English-speaking countries throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, particularly among naval and military personnel who valued its portability and quick setup on ships or in barracks. British Navy traditions embraced the game as a morale booster during long voyages, with officers and enlisted sailors alike crafting boards from available materials; this enthusiasm carried over to American forces through colonial ties, where it became a staple in whaling fleets and later U.S. Navy submarines during World War II. By the mid-20th century, the game had embedded itself in working-class and professional cultures across the UK, Canada, Australia, and the United States, with millions of players fostering clubs and informal gatherings.[11][12] Standardization efforts in the 20th century, driven by organized playgroups like the American Cribbage Congress (founded 1979), cemented the six-card format and shifted the standard game length to 121 points, a gradual change accelerating in the late 1930s to extend matches and heighten competition. This adjustment, reflected in updated rulebooks and tournament protocols, distinguished modern cribbage from shorter 61-point variants still used in casual or time-constrained settings, ensuring consistency for global enthusiasts.[10]Equipment
Cribbage Board
The cribbage board serves as a dedicated scoring device in the game of cribbage, allowing players to track points visually through peg advancement rather than relying on verbal counts or paper. It typically features a layout designed for two players, with parallel tracks that enable competitive progress monitoring during play.[10] Historically, the cribbage board emerged in the mid-17th century shortly after the game's invention around the 1630s by English poet Sir John Suckling, serving as a practical alternative to tallying scores on paper or with matchsticks amid the game's growing popularity. Early boards featured layouts similar to ancient gaming artifacts, such as the Egyptian "Dogs and Jackals" game with its 58-hole ivory or bone layout grouped in sets of five, but cribbage-specific designs evolved to accommodate the game's point-based scoring. By the early 18th century, wooden boards became common, reflecting the need for durable, portable scoring tools among sailors and gamblers who favored the game.[13][10][14] The traditional layout consists of a 121-hole track, forming a continuous loop or linear path divided into two parallel lanes for opposing players, with a starting "box" position at one end and an end hole marking victory at 121 points. This configuration supports the standard game's objective of reaching 121 points first, where players advance their pegs by the number of points scored from card combinations during play and the show phase. Each player uses two pegs—often one red and one black or contrasting colors—to leapfrog along the track, with the trailing peg indicating the current score and the leading peg marking the previous total for error-checking. Boards may include additional holes for tracking games won in matchplay or storing spare pegs.[2][15][13] Common materials for cribbage boards include hardwoods such as elm, beech, walnut, and cherry, valued for their durability, grain patterns, and workability in crafting intricate designs. These wooden boards, often measuring about 10–12 inches by 3–4 inches, feature precisely drilled holes (typically 1/8 to 3/16 inch in diameter) to hold metal or wooden pegs securely. Variations include continuous-track boards for two players, which form a single looping path, and three- or four-track designs for multiplayer games, sometimes incorporating decorative elements like inlays or engravings. Earlier 61-hole boards, used for shorter games to 61 points, persist in some traditional or travel versions, while modern innovations like folding or oversized boards enhance portability and accessibility.[16][2][10]Playing Cards
Cribbage requires a standard 52-card Anglo-American deck, with all jokers removed.[1][17] The numerical values assigned to cards for gameplay purposes are uniform: aces count as 1, numbered cards from 2 to 10 retain their face value, and face cards (jacks, queens, and kings) each count as 10.[1][17] Aces function as low cards in sequences and runs, preventing formations such as queen-king-ace.[1] To prepare the deck, the dealer shuffles it face down and presents it to the non-dealer for a cut, ensuring at least four cards remain in each portion to avoid exposing cards prematurely.[1][17] After dealing, the non-dealer cuts the remaining undealt cards, and the dealer turns up the top card of the lower packet as the starter, which serves as a communal card integral to the hand evaluations.[1][17]Rules of Standard Two-Player Cribbage
Objective and Setup
The objective of standard two-player cribbage is for a player to be the first to reach 121 points, with points accumulated through combinations of cards during the play phase (pegging) and the show phase (scoring hands).[18] This goal emphasizes strategic card play and hand evaluation to maximize scoring opportunities while minimizing the opponent's.[18] Setup begins with a standard 52-card deck, excluding jokers, and a cribbage board featuring tracks marked up to at least 121 points for pegging progress.[18] To determine the initial dealer, players cut the deck, and the one drawing the lower-ranking card deals first; dealing then alternates between players for each hand.[18] Both players start with their pegs at the zero position on the board.[18] A single game typically concludes when one player reaches 121 points, though a full match may consist of multiple such games.[18] The dealer holds an advantage due to the crib, a separate four-card hand that the dealer scores last in each round, potentially adding extra points.[18]Dealing and the Crib
In standard two-player cribbage, the first dealer is determined by each player cutting the deck after it has been shuffled, with the player cutting the lower card becoming the initial dealer; if the cards are of equal rank, the cut is repeated until a decisive result is obtained.[19][17] The deal then alternates between players after each hand throughout the game, which continues until one player reaches 121 points.[19][17] Once the dealer is established, they shuffle the standard 52-card deck and offer it to the non-dealer (known as the pone) for a cut; the pone divides the deck into two packets without exposing any cards.[19][17] The dealer then proceeds to deal six cards face down to each player, distributing them one at a time in clockwise order starting with the pone, resulting in a total of 12 cards dealt from the top of the reassembled deck.[19][17] All cards are dealt face down to maintain secrecy of hands. After the deal, each player selects and discards two cards from their hand face down into a central pile that forms the crib, a shared but exclusively scored hand belonging to the dealer.[19][17] The discards are placed without revealing their identities, and the order of discarding does not affect the game, though players typically do so simultaneously or in turn to avoid observation.[19] This leaves each player with a four-card hand, while the crib consists of the four discarded cards. With the hands and crib formed, the pone cuts the remaining undealt portion of the deck (the stock) into two packets, and the dealer reveals the top card of the lower packet as the starter, or turn-up card, which is placed face up and used in conjunction with all hands and the crib for scoring purposes later.[19][17] If this starter card is a knave (jack), the dealer immediately scores two points, known as "two for his heels," providing an early advantage regardless of the hand's progress.[19][17] The starter remains visible throughout the hand but is not played during the pegging phase.The Play
The play, also known as the pegging phase, begins after the starter card is revealed and constitutes the second main part of a cribbage deal, following the discard to the crib. During this phase, the non-dealer (pone) leads by playing the first card face up, announcing its pip value (face cards and tens count as 10, aces as 1), and the dealer then responds with a card, announcing the running total of the combined values.[18] Players continue alternating in this manner, each announcing the updated cumulative count after their play, until neither can play a card without exceeding 31 or until both have exhausted their hands.[18] Cards played are laid overlapping in a line to maintain visibility of their ranks, and a card once released cannot be withdrawn except if it would cause the total to surpass 31, in which case it may be retrieved and replaced.[18] A player unable to contribute a card without exceeding 31 must say "go," allowing the opponent to play any remaining cards that do not exceed 31, scoring points for each as they go, until the limit is reached or no more playable cards remain.[18] The opponent then leads the next sequence, starting a new count from zero, and play resumes alternating until all cards are played or a final "go" halts the round.[18] If the total reaches exactly 15 or 31 with a player's card, that player immediately scores 2 points; reaching 31 also ends the current sequence, with the next lead starting anew.[18] Scoring occurs in real time during play for specific combinations formed by the cards laid down: the player contributing the card that completes a pair scores 2 points, a three-of-a-kind (three cards of the same rank) scores 6 points, a four-of-a-kind scores 12 points, and a run of three or more consecutive cards scores 1 point per card in the run (e.g., 3 points for a three-card run).[18] Additionally, the player who plays the last card before a "go" is called scores 1 point per card remaining in the opponent's hand that could not be played, and the player laying the very last card of the entire play (if it does not make exactly 31) also scores 1 point.[18] All such points are pegged immediately on the board as they are scored, with the dealer having the final play in each sequence if possible.[18]Scoring the Show
After the play phase concludes, players score their hands and the crib based on combinations formed by their four cards plus the starter card. The non-dealer (pone) scores their hand first, followed by the dealer scoring their own hand, and finally the dealer scores the crib.[18] Points for each component are pegged immediately upon completion of its scoring.[18] Scoring relies on identifying specific combinations within the five cards (four held plus the starter). Each combination of cards totaling exactly 15 scores 2 points; multiple such combinations are scored separately.[18] Pairs score 2 points for every two cards of the same rank, with three of a kind worth 6 points (equivalent to three pairs) and four of a kind worth 12 points (six pairs).[18] Runs of three or more consecutive cards (regardless of suit) score 1 point per card in the sequence; for example, a run of three scores 3 points.[18] A flush—four cards of the same suit in the hand—scores 4 points, increasing to 5 points if the starter card matches the suit.[18] Additionally, holding the jack (knave) of the starter's suit, known as "his nob," awards 1 extra point.[18] These bonuses apply to both hands, with combinations scored additively without overlap unless they form distinct groups.[18] The crib follows the same scoring rules as a hand but has a stricter flush requirement: it scores only if all five cards (four in the crib plus the starter) are of the same suit, for 5 points total, with no 4-card flush recognized.[18] His nob also applies to the crib if the jack of the starter's suit is present.[18]| Combination | Points | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Fifteen (sum to 15) | 2 per combination | Applies to any cards totaling 15; multiple combinations scored separately. |
| Pair | 2 | Two cards of same rank. |
| Three of a kind | 6 | Three cards of same rank (three pairs). |
| Four of a kind | 12 | Four cards of same rank (six pairs). |
| Run | 1 per card | Minimum three consecutive ranks; longer runs score accordingly (e.g., 3 cards = 3 points). |
| Flush (hand) | 4 (or 5 with matching starter) | Four cards same suit; +1 if starter matches. |
| His Nob | 1 | Jack of starter's suit in hand or crib. |
| Flush (crib) | 5 | All five cards (crib + starter) same suit only. |
Muggins
Muggins is an optional rule in cribbage that allows a player to claim points overlooked by their opponent during scoring. If a player fails to peg the full value of points earned during the play of cards or when counting their hand or the crib, the opponent may call "muggins" and take those points for themselves.[18] This rule applies to underpegging in all phases of the game, including the play, the show of hands, and the crib, but excludes missed penalties, the dealer's two points for a jack as the starter, or other specific exceptions.[18][1] The rule must be agreed upon and announced before play begins, particularly in competitive settings, where it enforces meticulous scoring to prevent errors that could alter the game's outcome.[18] In such environments, like tournaments sanctioned by the American Cribbage Congress, muggins is commonly invoked to maintain accuracy, with the calling player specifying the points claimed, which are then awarded if verified—typically the lesser of the announced or actual amount, up to available pegging space.[18] No additional fines or penalties beyond the transfer of points are imposed.[20] Historically, muggins originated as a traditional element in English variants of cribbage, dating back to at least the mid-19th century, where the term derives from British slang for a fool, implying the oversight makes the missing player appear foolish.[21] It has since become a standard feature in many modern rule sets, enhancing the game's competitive integrity without altering core mechanics.[2]Matchplay
In standard two-player cribbage, a complete game consists of multiple hands played sequentially until one player reaches or exceeds 121 points, at which point they are declared the winner. The dealer position alternates after each hand, with the initial dealer determined by cutting the deck and awarding the deal to the player who draws the lowest card (aces low). This rotation ensures fairness, as the dealer benefits from scoring the crib but alternates the advantage. Hands continue without interruption, with points accumulated from pegging during play and scoring the hands and crib afterward, building toward the 121-point threshold.[17] Skunk rules are optional in casual play and are enforced in official American Cribbage Congress (ACC) tournaments, where a single skunk (winner reaches 121 while the opponent has 90 points or fewer) awards 3 game points instead of 2 (equivalent to 1.5 wins for tournament standings). A double skunk (opponent has 60 points or fewer) is not recognized separately by the ACC and is treated as a regular skunk, though some house rules may triple or quadruple the value. These multipliers apply only if agreed upon before play and are tracked separately from standard point totals.[18][1] A full match typically comprises a series of games, often structured as the best of three or best of five to determine an overall victor, with winners tracked across the set. In competitive settings, the loser of a game may deal first in the next to balance opportunities, though alternation remains standard. Matches allow for extended play, rewarding consistency over single-game luck.[22] The game concludes immediately when a player reaches or exceeds 121 points during any scoring phase, including the dealer's crib. After the play, the non-dealer (pone) scores their hand first; if they reach 121, they win outright. Otherwise, the dealer scores their hand, and if still short, the crib—potentially pushing the dealer to victory. This sequential scoring ensures the game ends precisely upon hitting the target, even mid-hand evaluation.[17]Variants
Predecessor and Early Forms
Noddy, a 16th-century English card game, served as the direct ancestor of cribbage, sharing core mechanics of scoring combinations during play and in hand without the crib feature.[4] Originating around the 1550s and referenced as early as 1589 in literary works by Thomas Nashe, noddy was played with a standard 52-card deck where aces count as 1, numbered cards by their face value, and court cards as 10.[4] The game involved dealing three cards to each of two players (or four in partnerships), turning up a trump card, and scoring points for fifteens (combinations totaling 15 for 2 points), pairs (2 points for a pair, 6 for three-of-a-kind, 12 for four-of-a-kind), runs (2 points for three cards, 4 for four, and 1 per additional card), and flushes (1 point per card in a suit of three or more).[4] A key score was "knave noddy," awarding 1 point for the jack of trumps in hand or 2 to the non-dealer if it appeared as the trump; this evolved into cribbage's "nobs."[4] Play proceeded by alternately leading cards up to 31, scoring for pairs, runs, and exact hits at 15, 25, or 31, with the game tracked on a 31-hole board to a target of 31 points.[4] Costly colours, an 18th-century English variant popular in regions like Shropshire, built on noddy's structure but incorporated suit-based bonuses, distinguishing it as a transitional form toward modern cribbage.[23] Documented in Charles Cotton's Compleat Gamester (1674) and later in The Royal Game of Costly Colours (1805), the game used a standard deck with aces low (1) or high (11), and dealt three cards each plus a turned-up trump.[23] Scoring included combinations totaling 15, 25, or 31 (1 point per card), pairs (2 for pair, 9 for three, 18 for four), and runs (1 per card), but added enhanced flush scores: 2 points for three cards of the same color (red or black), 3 for three in suit, up to 6 for four in exact suit ("costly colours").[23] Jacks and deuces of trumps scored 4 points in hand ("his nob" for jacks), with turned-up examples giving the dealer 4 ("his heels"); other jacks or deuces scored 2.[23] A unique "mogging" rule allowed players to exchange one card for the trump, with refusal or acceptance penalties/bonuses of 1-4 points, and play to 121 on a board.[23] By the late 19th century, costly colours had largely merged into three-card cribbage variants, influencing suit scoring while emphasizing the crib mechanic's absence in earlier forms.[23] The original form of cribbage, known as five-card cribbage, emerged in the 17th century as an adaptation of noddy, introducing the crib and extending play length.[4] Players were dealt five cards from a 52-card deck, discarding two to a shared crib while retaining three for hand scoring, plus a starter card; this contrasted with noddy's fixed three-card hands.[24] Scoring combined noddy's fifteens, pairs, runs, and nobs (1 point for jack of starter suit in hand) with the crib's potential for the dealer, targeting 61 points in a single lap around a 121-hole board.[24] Play rules aligned closely with noddy, leading alternately to 31 and scoring interim combinations, but the discard mechanic added strategic depth.[4] These early forms transitioned to standard six-card cribbage through 17th-18th century refinements, notably the crib's addition attributed to Sir John Suckling, who adapted noddy by incorporating discards to create a communal scoring pool.[4] Noddy's combination scoring and board-tracking provided the foundation, costly colours contributed flush variants and heel/nob bonuses, while five-card play established the crib's role before the shift to longer 121-point games with larger hands.[23]Multi-Player and Card-Count Adaptations
In three-player cribbage, each player is dealt five cards, and after one card is dealt face-down to the crib from the deck, each discards one card face down to the dealer's crib, resulting in a four-card crib.[1] The game proceeds to 121 points, with the turn-up card (starter) still used for scoring hands and the crib, and partnerships are optional depending on house rules or tournament preferences.[1] The play phase follows the standard rules, with players alternating cards to a cumulative total not exceeding 31, and scoring for pairs, runs, and 15s occurring during play as normal.[1] For four-player cribbage, often played in partnerships with teams sitting opposite each other and sharing a scoring track, five cards are dealt to each player, with each discarding one to the shared crib belonging to the dealer's team.[1][25] An alternative adaptation, known as seven-card cribbage, deals seven cards per player, with each discarding two to the crib (plus an initial card from the deck), for longer hands and a larger crib.[26] Teams score collectively during the play and show phases, with the starter card applying to all hands and the crib as in the two-player game, scaled for group participation.[1] Three-card cribbage is a faster variant played without a crib, in which three cards are dealt to each player and scored with the starter card for combinations like 15s, pairs, runs, and flushes.[27] Adjustments ensure the game still aims for 121 points, though the reduced card count emphasizes strategic play in the pegging phase and simplifies hand evaluation.[27]Modern and Regional Variations
In recent years, cribbage has seen adaptations aimed at accelerating gameplay or enabling solo play, such as speed cribbage, where each player is dealt six cards in a primary pile and four additional cards in a "speed" pile to facilitate quicker hands and decisions.[27] In this variant, players alternate between the piles during play, with the dealer managing three potential hands while non-dealers handle two, reducing overall game time compared to standard rules.[27] Cribbage solitaire variants provide single-player engagement by adapting core scoring mechanics to layouts without opponents. One common form involves dealing six cards to a hand and two to a crib, discarding two from the hand to the crib, then playing cards alternately against the remaining deck while scoring only personal points from pairs, runs, and fifteens.[28] A specialized version, Cribbage Squares, uses a 4x4 grid where 16 cards are placed sequentially from the stock into empty spaces, with reserves holding up to five cards each for strategic redeployment of the top card; after filling the grid, a starter card is revealed, and scoring tallies combinations across rows and columns as cribbage hands.[29] The goal in these solitaire games is typically to exceed 120 points over multiple deals, emphasizing optimal discards and plays.[28] In the United States, differences in casual play often involve the optional muggins rule, where opponents claim overlooked points, adding vigilance and competitiveness to the game.[20] This approach contrasts with non-muggins styles by integrating point-stealing as an element rather than an add-on. Digital platforms have popularized cribbage through online adaptations that incorporate automated scoring and AI opponents, eliminating the need for physical boards. Sites like eCribbage offer virtual play with instant hand evaluation based on standard combinations, allowing matches against computer algorithms that simulate strategic discards and pegging.[27] AI-driven tools, such as those using photo recognition for hand scoring, further enhance accessibility by computing points from uploaded card images, supporting both solo practice and remote multiplayer without traditional equipment.[30] These adaptations maintain fidelity to base rules while enabling features like variable game lengths to 61 or 121 points.Strategy and Tactics
Discarding Decisions
In cribbage, discarding decisions form a foundational strategic element, as each player must select two cards from their six-card hand to contribute to the four-card crib while optimizing the remaining four-card hand for scoring during the show. The core principles emphasize retaining cards in the hand that offer high potential for combinations such as 15s (two cards or more summing to 15, worth 2 points each), runs (consecutive cards worth 1 point per card), and pairs (two of a kind worth 2 points), while discarding cards that minimize scoring opportunities in the crib.[31] For instance, players prioritize keeping versatile cards like 5s or connectors (e.g., 6-7-8) in hand to facilitate multiple 15s or runs with the starter card, as these can yield 8-12 points or more in a strong hand.[32] Conversely, discards should avoid gifting the opponent easy points, such as pairs of the same rank or cards that sum to 15 or 5, which could combine with the opponent's discards or the starter to score 2-6 points or higher.[31] A key consideration is the distinction between the dealer's and non-dealer's positions, which alters discard priorities due to control over the crib. As non-dealer, the focus is on weakening the opponent's crib by discarding low-value, non-complementary cards that average fewer than 5 points, such as 10-K (sum 20, average 3.83 points) or 9-K (sum 19, average 3.93 points), to limit potential pairs, 15s, or short runs.[33] These combinations rarely form strong scores because they do not add to 15, connect sequentially, or pair easily with common cards. In contrast, the dealer benefits from the crib as an extension of their hand and should discard higher-potential pairs averaging 5.5-8.8 points, such as 5-5 (8.82 points) or 2-3 (7.17 points), which frequently produce multiple 15s or runs when combined with the other two crib cards and starter.[34] Overall, non-dealer discards to the opponent's crib average 5.0-5.5 points, while dealer discards to their own crib average around 4.5 points but can be optimized higher through selection.[34] Certain discards carry inherent risks due to their compatibility with the deck's composition, influencing common strategic choices. For example, discarding a 5 is generally avoided unless paired with another strong card, as it forms a 15-2 (2 points) with any of the 16 ten-point cards (10s, jacks, queens, kings), which comprise about 30% of the deck and increase the crib's scoring likelihood significantly.[31] Similarly, jacks should be retained over kings or queens when possible, as a discarded jack to the opponent's crib has a 25% chance of scoring 1 point as "nobs" (matching the suit of the starter card).[35] Safer common discards to the opponent's crib include 4-10 (sum 14, low run potential) or 9-6 (sum 15 but isolated from easy extensions), which average under 4.5 points and reduce the odds of the crib exceeding 6 points.[32] These probabilities, derived from simulations of over 250,000 discards, underscore the importance of mathematical evaluation over intuition in discard selection.[32]| Discard Pair | Average Points to Opponent's Crib | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | 3.83 | High sum (20), no 15 or run starters |
| 9-K | 3.93 | Sum 19, minimal combinations |
| 9-Q | ~4.0 | Similar to 9-K, avoids ten-point links |
| 5-5 | Avoid (high risk) | Pairs easily with 16 ten-point cards for 15s |