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Cyclic model

The cyclic model (or oscillating model) is a class of cosmological theories proposing that the universe undergoes an endless sequence of cycles of cosmic evolution, avoiding a singular origin or ultimate end.^[1] Distinct from the standard Big Bang theory's singular beginning, some cyclic models integrate elements of string theory, such as the ekpyrotic scenario where higher-dimensional branes collide to initiate each cycle.^[2] A prominent example was developed by physicists Paul J. Steinhardt and Neil Turok in 2001, drawing inspiration from earlier oscillating universe ideas but incorporating modern insights from ekpyrotic cosmology, where brane collisions replace the traditional singularity.^[2] In this scenario, dark energy plays a pivotal role in the accelerated expansion phase, leading to dilution of entropy before a slow contraction phase sets in, culminating in the next brane collision approximately every trillion years. The approach aims to resolve issues like the flatness and horizon problems without invoking cosmic inflation, while naturally producing a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of density fluctuations observed in the cosmic microwave background.^[3] Variants of cyclic models exist, such as the Baum–Frampton phantom energy model and Roger Penrose's conformal cyclic cosmology (CCC), which posits infinite "aeons" where the remote future of one universe conformally maps onto the Big Bang of the next, preserving information across cycles through black hole evaporation and photon scaling without contraction. These models remain theoretical and face challenges, including the need for quantum gravity to describe transitions between cycles and empirical tests via cosmic microwave background polarization patterns, which could distinguish them from inflationary predictions. Despite limited observational confirmation, cyclic theories continue to influence discussions on the universe's long-term fate and multiverse possibilities.^[2]

Historical Development

Early Oscillating Universe Ideas

In the early 20th century, the idea of an oscillating universe emerged as a way to avoid both eternal expansion and the heat death predicted by thermodynamic principles in a static or perpetually expanding cosmos. Alexander Friedmann first proposed this concept in 1922, deriving solutions to Einstein's general relativity equations that allowed for a closed universe with positive spatial curvature, where the scale factor could expand from a minimum value, reach a maximum, and contract back, potentially repeating in a cyclic manner.^[4] In his seminal paper "Über die Krümmung des Raumes," Friedmann described a "periodic world" with a single cycle duration estimated at approximately 10 billion years, based on a total mass of about $5 \times 10^{21} solar masses and no cosmological constant (\Lambda = 0).^[4] This model relied on the Friedmann equations, particularly the first one for a closed universe (k = +1):

\left( \frac{\dot{a}}{a} \right)^2 = \frac{8\pi G}{3} \rho - \frac{k c^2}{a^2} + \frac{\Lambda}{3},

where a is the scale factor, \dot{a} its time derivative, \rho the matter density, G the gravitational constant, c the speed of light, and k the curvature parameter; in the oscillating scenario, \Lambda = 0, and the universe "bounces" when \dot{a} = 0 at a minimum a, reversing expansion to contraction without singularity in the idealized classical treatment.^[4] Friedmann's work positioned the oscillating universe as a dynamic alternative to the prevailing static models, though he initially envisioned it as a finite cycle rather than infinite oscillations.^[4] Albert Einstein, who had initially favored a static universe with a positive \Lambda to balance gravitational collapse, adopted and modified Friedmann's oscillating framework around 1930–1931 amid growing evidence for cosmic expansion.^[4] In his 1931 paper "Zum kosmologischen Problem I," Einstein discarded \Lambda and calculated the dynamics of a pressureless dust-filled closed universe undergoing a single expansion-contraction cycle, with the radius P increasing from a minimum P_0 to a maximum before recollapsing. He estimated the critical density at \rho \approx 10^{-26} g/cm³ and the maximum radius at about 100 million light-years, yielding a cycle duration on the order of billions of years, dependent on density parameters like the total mass and initial conditions.^[4] Einstein's modification emphasized a smooth turnaround at maximum expansion where \frac{dP}{dt} = 0, providing a relativistic basis for potential repetition, though he treated it as a finite process to align with observed expansion. Richard Tolman provided a more rigorous analysis in 1934, exploring the implications of thermodynamics for infinite cyclic models in his book Relativity, Thermodynamics, and Cosmology.^[4] Tolman demonstrated that the second law of thermodynamics, which dictates increasing entropy in isolated systems, would cause entropy to accumulate across cycles in an oscillating universe, leading to progressively longer periods and larger maximum radii without bound.^[4] Using a model where the scale factor follows R(t) = R_m \sin\left(\sqrt{\frac{8\pi \rho}{3}} t\right) for a closed, matter-dominated universe, he showed that each bounce at minimum R = 0 (idealized as elastic, akin to a rebounding ball) incorporates prior entropy, rendering an infinite past sequence impossible without a mechanism to reset entropy to zero.^[4] This entropy problem highlighted a fundamental challenge for classical cyclic cosmologies, suggesting they could not extend indefinitely backward in time and thus avoiding heat death but conflicting with notions of an eternal universe.^[4]

Modern Revival and Motivations

The discovery of the universe's accelerating expansion in 1998, based on observations of Type Ia supernovae by the Supernova Cosmology Project and High-Z Supernova Search Team, revealed the dominant role of dark energy in late-time cosmology. This unexpected acceleration challenged the standard Big Bang model by implying a future dominated by an unknown component with negative pressure, prompting renewed interest in bounce scenarios that replace the initial singularity with a contracting phase transitioning smoothly to expansion.^[2] Persistent issues in inflationary cosmology, such as the horizon problem—where causally disconnected regions exhibit surprising uniformity—the flatness problem requiring improbable initial conditions for spatial flatness, and the monopole problem involving the overproduction of magnetic monopoles without dilution, have motivated cyclic alternatives.^[2] These models achieve homogeneity and isotropy through repeated expansion-contraction cycles, where each cycle erases prior irregularities and establishes scale-invariant perturbations without relying on a brief, superluminal inflationary epoch.^[2] The 2013 Planck satellite results further solidified dark energy's dominance, contributing approximately 68% of the universe's energy density and constraining its equation-of-state parameter w near -1, though compatible with phantom regimes where w < -1.^[5] Such phantom dark energy facilitates contraction in cyclic models by driving a turnaround from expansion to crunch, enabling perpetual cycles without singularities. A pivotal development occurred in 2001 when Paul J. Steinhardt and Neil Turok proposed a string theory-inspired cyclic model, integrating brane dynamics to produce ekpyrotic contractions that address fine-tuning issues like the small cosmological constant and entropy buildup across cycles.^[2] This framework linked empirical observations of acceleration to theoretical constructs from M-theory, reviving cyclic cosmologies as viable alternatives to inflation.^[2]

Core Principles

Prerequisites from Big Bang Cosmology

The ΛCDM (Lambda cold dark matter) model forms the foundation of modern Big Bang cosmology, positing that the universe originated from an extremely hot, dense state approximately 13.8 billion years ago and has since expanded and cooled. This evolution is described within the framework of general relativity using the Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker (FLRW) metric, which assumes spatial homogeneity and isotropy on large scales. The dynamics of the universe's expansion are governed by the Friedmann equations, derived from Einstein's field equations, where the scale factor a(t) characterizes the relative size of the universe as a function of cosmic time t. In the ΛCDM paradigm, the universe's composition includes ordinary matter (about 5%), cold dark matter (about 27%), and dark energy (about 68%), with the latter associated with the cosmological constant Λ driving late-time acceleration. A key component is the second Friedmann equation, also known as the acceleration equation, which determines the deceleration or acceleration of the cosmic expansion:

\frac{\ddot{a}}{a} = -\frac{4\pi G}{3} \left( \rho + \frac{3p}{c^2} \right) + \frac{\Lambda c^2}{3},

where G is the gravitational constant, \rho the total energy density, p the isotropic pressure, and c the speed of light. For dominant matter or radiation components, where the equation of state satisfies p \geq 0 (implying \rho + 3p/c^2 > 0), the term -\frac{4\pi G}{3} (\rho + 3p/c^2) causes \ddot{a} < 0, leading to decelerated expansion in the early universe. Conversely, the positive cosmological constant term \frac{\Lambda c^2}{3} dominates at late times, yielding \ddot{a} > 0 and accelerated expansion, as confirmed by observations of type Ia supernovae, cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, and baryon acoustic oscillations. This transition from deceleration to acceleration marks a pivotal feature of the ΛCDM model, with dark energy traditionally interpreted as a constant vacuum energy density, though recent observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) as of 2025 suggest possible evolution over time.^[6] However, the ΛCDM model faces tensions, including the Hubble constant discrepancy and recent hints from DESI of evolving dark energy, motivating alternative frameworks like cyclic models. Despite its successes, the Big Bang model encounters a fundamental issue at the initial singularity, where general relativity predicts infinite density and spacetime curvature at t = 0. The Hawking–Penrose singularity theorems rigorously establish that, under reasonable physical conditions—such as the validity of Einstein's equations, the dominant energy condition for matter, and the existence of trapped surfaces or geodesic incompleteness—spacetime must develop singularities in gravitational collapse or cosmological expansion scenarios. These theorems imply that the Big Bang singularity is inevitable in classical general relativity for our universe, given its observed expansion from a hot, dense phase. However, at Planck scales near the singularity (t \sim 10^{-43} s), quantum effects become dominant, rendering general relativity incomplete and necessitating a theory of quantum gravity to resolve the infinities and describe the earliest moments.^[7]^[8] To address fine-tuning problems in the standard Big Bang model, such as the horizon problem (why distant regions appear uniform in temperature) and the flatness problem (why the universe is so close to spatial flatness), the inflationary paradigm emerged in the early 1980s. Proposed by Alan Guth, inflation hypothesizes a brief epoch of exponential expansion driven by a scalar inflaton field with negative pressure, occurring shortly after the singularity at energies around $10^{15} GeV, expanding the universe by a factor of at least e^{60}. This rapid growth stretches quantum fluctuations to cosmic scales, seeding the observed CMB anisotropies and large-scale structure, while smoothing initial irregularities. Nonetheless, the theory's reliance on eternal inflation in many realizations implies a multiverse of bubble universes with varying constants, raising philosophical concerns, and direct evidence remains elusive, relying instead on indirect consistency with CMB data from missions like Planck.^[9] The monotonic increase of entropy in the universe, as dictated by the second law of thermodynamics, establishes a thermodynamic arrow of time that aligns with the expansion from the Big Bang, posing considerations for models attempting to incorporate cycles.

Defining Features of Cyclic Universes

Cyclic universes are characterized by an infinite or indefinite sequence of cycles, each consisting of an expansion phase followed by a contraction phase culminating in a Big Crunch, and a subsequent bounce known as the Big Bounce that initiates the next expansion without encountering an initial singularity.^[2] This structure contrasts with linear cosmologies by positing a timeless, repeating evolution where the universe avoids a true beginning or end, relying on the Friedmann equations as the dynamical basis for these phases.^[10] A central defining feature is the mechanism for resetting entropy between cycles, which prevents unbounded accumulation that would otherwise halt repetition. In various cyclic models, this is achieved through processes such as conformal rescaling, which effectively dilutes the density of black holes and other entropy sources by rescaling the geometry at the transition, or through spatial separation that spreads out entropy carriers, ensuring the entropy per cycle remains bounded and compatible with repetition.^[11] Cyclic models inherently avoid the fine-tuning problems plaguing standard Big Bang cosmology, such as the horizon and flatness issues, by having each cycle inherit the necessary homogeneity, isotropy, and flatness from the dynamics of the preceding contraction phase. During slow contraction, causal horizons shrink and gravitational attraction amplifies initial uniformity, generating the observed large-scale structure without requiring an inflationary epoch or precise initial conditions.^[12] The equation of state parameter w = p / \rho, where p is pressure and \rho is energy density, plays a crucial role in enabling these cycles. For the expansion phase to proceed as observed, w > -1 is typically required to ensure acceleration without recollapse, while in certain bounce realizations, w < -1 (phantom-like behavior) facilitates the transition from contraction to expansion by violating standard energy conditions.^[10]

Major Models

Steinhardt–Turok Ekpyrotic Model

The Steinhardt–Turok ekpyrotic model originates from proposals within string theory, particularly heterotic M-theory, where our observable universe is conceptualized as a three-dimensional brane embedded in a higher-dimensional bulk space, with another parallel brane representing a hidden sector.^[13] In this framework, the hot Big Bang arises not from an initial singularity but from the violent collision between these two branes, which releases energy and initiates thermalization without invoking rapid inflationary expansion.^[13] The cycle mechanics involve an ekpyrotic contraction phase, named after the Greek word for "conflagration" to evoke a fiery, transformative process, during which the branes approach each other slowly under the influence of a negative potential, avoiding a full gravitational crunch.^[13] Following the collision, which produces the hot, dense state mimicking the Big Bang, the branes rebound and separate during an expansion phase driven by positive potential energy akin to dark energy.^[14] This separation continues until quantum or stringy effects reverse the motion, leading to another contraction and collision approximately every $10^{12} years, perpetuating an infinite sequence of cycles without a cosmic beginning.^[14] A key advantage of the model is its mechanism for generating density perturbations through quantum fluctuations in the scalar field on the brane during the contraction phase, which seed the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies.^[14] Unlike inflation, these perturbations grow inversely with the scale factor, following the relation \delta \propto a^{-1} in the ekpyrotic regime, where a is the scale factor, yielding a nearly scale-invariant spectrum that matches CMB observations without superluminal expansion or fine-tuning issues.^[14] In their 2002 extension to a full cyclic model, Steinhardt and Turok incorporated dark energy explicitly to drive brane separation, ensuring entropy dilution across cycles and resolving potential buildup of disorder.^[14]

Baum–Frampton Phantom Energy Model

The Baum–Frampton model, proposed by Lauris Baum and Paul H. Frampton in 2007, describes a cyclic universe driven by phantom dark energy, where the cosmos expands toward a potential Big Rip before undergoing a rapid turnaround, contraction, and bounce to initiate the next cycle.^[15] In this framework, phantom energy with an equation-of-state parameter w < -1 powers the accelerated expansion, fragmenting matter into isolated patches as the scale factor a grows without bound, but the dynamics prevent a full singularity by triggering a turnaround extremely close to the would-be Big Rip time.^[16] This turnaround marks the transition to a super-rapid contraction phase, during which the universe's volume decreases dramatically, followed by a nonsingular bounce that restarts expansion and inflation.^[15] The model's dynamics rely on the standard Friedmann equations augmented by the phantom energy contribution, where the acceleration equation \frac{\ddot{a}}{a} = -\frac{4\pi G}{3} \sum_i (\rho_i + 3p_i) yields positive values initially due to $1 + 3w < -2 for the phantom component, driving superacceleration, but shifts to extremely negative values during contraction to facilitate the bounce without violating energy conditions in a classical sense.^[16] A key feature is the resolution of the entropy buildup issue plaguing cyclic cosmologies: following the turnaround, the contracting universe (cu) becomes nearly empty, containing at most zero or one photon with negligible energy, effectively resetting entropy to S_{cu} = 0 via a ghost condensate state that avoids thermodynamic accumulation across cycles.^[17] The full cycle time, from one bounce to the next, spans approximately $10^{11} years, allowing sufficient duration for structure formation and observationally consistent evolution.^[17] This model addresses the observed cosmic acceleration, such as that inferred from 1998 Type Ia supernova data, by naturally incorporating phantom energy without the fine-tuning required for a cosmological constant \Lambda, as the w < -1 parameter aligns with flat-space solutions that match the Hubble expansion rate H_0.^[16] Some dark energy observations have hinted at the possibility of w < -1, providing motivational support for the phantom regime explored here.^[15]

Penrose Conformal Cyclic Cosmology

The conformal cyclic cosmology (CCC), proposed by Roger Penrose in 2006, posits that the universe undergoes an infinite sequence of cycles, or "aeons," where the remote future of one aeon conformally rescales to become the Big Bang of the next. In this framework, the expanding universe approaches a state dominated by massless particles after black holes fully evaporate via Hawking radiation, leaving a smooth, low-entropy configuration that lacks massive structures or clocks, allowing the conformal boundary to match the initial singularity of the subsequent aeon. This rescaling avoids a big crunch by leveraging the conformal invariance of general relativity, ensuring that the geometry of the future infinity—resembling a de Sitter-like expansion—maps onto a flat, Minkowski-like initial state without singularities disrupting the transition.^[18] Central to CCC is the Weyl curvature hypothesis, which asserts that the Weyl tensor vanishes at the start of each aeon (indicating low curvature and high smoothness), while increasing toward the end due to gravitational clumping, such as black hole formation; however, complete evaporation restores near-zero Weyl curvature, enabling the cycle. This hypothesis predicts observable remnants from previous aeons, including "Hawking points"—localized hot spots in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) arising from the evaporation of supermassive black holes (up to $10^{14} solar masses) in prior aeons, which manifest as circular temperature anomalies with angular diameters of approximately 3–4 degrees and central temperature excesses exceeding standard fluctuations by an order of magnitude. Penrose and collaborators have claimed analysis of Planck and WMAP CMB data identifies such spots with over 99.98% confidence, appearing at identical locations across datasets and inconsistent with Gaussian noise models; however, independent analyses find lower significance, around 87% confidence after marginalization.^[19]^[20] These claims remain controversial, with some studies questioning the statistical significance of the anomalies. The key mathematical mechanism involves a conformal factor \Omega that rescales the metric via ds^2 \to \Omega^2 ds^2, where \Omega \to 0 at the future infinity (squashing distances to conformally connect to the next Big Bang) and \Omega \to \infty near the initial singularity, preserving angles and null geodesics while eliminating massive particle influences. In the 2010s, Penrose further developed these ideas through analyses of CMB anomalies, interpreting low-variance concentric circles and hot spots as evidence of pre-Big Bang activity, with statistical support from simulations ruling out chance occurrences. More recent advancements, including a 2025 collaboration with Krzysztof Meissner, emphasize a gravitational wave-dominated epoch during the crossover, where waves from prior aeons imprint on the CMB and explain the observed scale of Hawking points, with the post-crossover wave era lasting approximately $2 \times 10^{16} seconds and linking black hole cluster masses to temperature perturbations of \delta T / T \sim 10^{-3}.^[21]

Alternative Approaches

Loop Quantum Cosmology Cycles

Loop quantum cosmology (LQC) provides a framework for cyclic universe models by applying techniques from loop quantum gravity to homogeneous and isotropic cosmological spacetimes, effectively replacing the classical big bang singularity with a quantum bounce occurring at the Planck scale of approximately $10^{-35} meters. Developed primarily by Abhay Ashtekar and collaborators, LQC quantizes the geometry of space using discrete "loops" or spin networks, leading to a non-singular evolution where the universe transitions smoothly from contraction to expansion without reaching infinite density. This approach is motivated by the need to resolve singularities predicted by general relativity through quantum gravity effects, ensuring a finite and well-defined description of the early universe.^[22] The cyclic mechanism in LQC relies on holonomy corrections that modify the classical Friedmann equation, introducing a repulsive quantum force at high densities that triggers the bounce. The effective dynamics are governed by the modified equation

\left( \frac{\dot{a}}{a} \right)^2 = \frac{8\pi G}{3} \rho \left(1 - \frac{\rho}{\rho_c} \right),

where a is the scale factor, \rho is the energy density, G is Newton's constant, and \rho_c \approx 0.41 \rho_{\rm Pl} is the critical density at which the bounce occurs, with \rho_{\rm Pl} denoting the Planck density.^[23] This quadratic suppression term ensures that the expansion rate \dot{a}/a vanishes and reverses when \rho approaches \rho_c, enabling a symmetric bounce that connects contracting and expanding phases in a cyclic manner. For closed universes (k=1), these corrections allow the universe to recollapse after expansion, perpetuating indefinite cycles without singularities.^[23] In models developed during the 2010s, researchers including Martin Bojowald addressed key challenges in cyclic LQC, such as the resolution of entropy accumulation across bounces through quantum dispersion effects. Effective equations reveal that quantum fluctuations and correlations, particularly state squeezing, evolve asymmetrically during recollapse, providing a quantum measure of entropy that avoids classical thermodynamic paradoxes by tying irreversibility to underlying quantum uncertainties rather than volume growth.^[24] These dynamics predict subtle asymmetries in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), such as power suppression at low multipoles (\ell < 30), arising from pre-bounce quantum perturbations that influence post-bounce inflationary phases. Following the bounce, LQC incorporates inflation-like expansion driven by scalar fields, smoothing the universe and generating primordial perturbations consistent with observations while preserving the cyclic structure.

Other Variants

In the 2010s, Nikodem Popławski introduced a torsion-based cyclic model within Einstein-Cartan gravity, where the intrinsic spin of fermions couples to torsion, generating repulsive effects at high densities that trigger a big bounce and avoid singularities. This mechanism enables a sequence of expanding and contracting universes, with each cycle potentially nucleating inside black holes of the previous one, forming a multiverse-like chain.^[25]^[26] Popławski's framework extends general relativity by including spin-torsion interactions, which become significant during the contraction phase, replacing the big bang with a nonsingular transition.^[27] Nick Gorkavyi proposed an oscillating cosmological model in the 2000s and refined it in subsequent works, eschewing dark energy and dark matter in favor of nonlinear density waves and gravitational radiation to drive universal contraction. In this approach, collapsing matter efficiently converts into gravitational waves, which dominate the dynamics and facilitate a rebound without invoking exotic components, leading to perpetual cycles. Gorkavyi's model emphasizes the role of black holes and wave absorption in regulating the oscillation, providing a purely Einsteinian basis for cyclic evolution.^[28] The 2023 Cosmocycles calendar concept offers a speculative timeline framing cyclic cosmology as a recurring sequence of cosmic epochs. This visualization scales infinite cycles into a metaphorical calendar, highlighting phases of expansion, stagnation, and rebirth without formal mathematical derivation.^[29]

Challenges and Evidence

Theoretical Obstacles

One of the primary theoretical obstacles in cyclic cosmological models is the entropy arrow problem, stemming from the second law of thermodynamics, which states that the entropy of an isolated system cannot decrease over time. In a truly infinite cyclic universe, entropy would accumulate across successive cycles, leading to unbounded growth in disorder and eventually rendering the universe incompatible with observed low-entropy initial conditions. To address this, models propose mechanisms such as dilution via rapid expansion in ekpyrotic scenarios or conformal rescaling in Penrose's conformal cyclic cosmology (CCC), where the infinitely expanded future conforms to a new big bang, effectively resetting entropy through geometric dilution. However, these resets rely on unproven assumptions about entropy's behavior under extreme conditions, such as quantum effects or higher-dimensional dynamics, without a complete theoretical justification. A specific critique highlighting this issue came in a 2022 analysis by Kinney and Stein, which proves that within general relativity, any cyclic model attempting to dissipate entropy through growth of the scale factor—common in bouncing cosmologies—must be geodesically past-incomplete. This incompleteness implies that geodesics tracing backward in time terminate at a finite affine parameter, effectively requiring a beginning to the cycles rather than true eternity. The theorem applies broadly to models where expansion dilutes black hole entropy and other contributions, underscoring that avoiding an initial singularity demands physics beyond general relativity, such as quantum gravity modifications, which are not yet available.^[30] Stability issues further complicate cyclic models, particularly regarding cycle duration and dynamical consistency. In the Steinhardt–Turok ekpyrotic model, the brane collision mechanism requires exquisite fine-tuning of the brane tension to precisely balance the bulk cosmological constant, enabling a static inter-brane configuration before each cycle. Deviations from this tuning disrupt the equilibrium, potentially leading to premature collisions or unstable trajectories that vary cycle lengths unpredictably and prevent perpetual repetition. Additionally, tachyonic instabilities in the scalar field sector during the contracting phase demand initial conditions finely adjusted to suppress growing modes, introducing sensitivity to perturbations that undermines the model's robustness over infinite cycles.^[31] Finally, the incompleteness of quantum gravity poses a fundamental barrier, as cyclic models typically involve bounce transitions where classical general relativity predicts singularities with infinite density and curvature. These bounces—whether from brane collisions or quantum effects—occur in regimes where quantum gravitational corrections are essential to resolve the singularities and ensure smooth passage to the next cycle, yet no complete, consistent theory of quantum gravity exists to validate such mechanisms. Seminal reviews emphasize that without a unified framework incorporating string theory, loop quantum gravity, or similar approaches, the viability of these transitions remains speculative, leaving open questions about particle production, horizon formation, and the preservation of causal structure across cycles.

Observational Tests and Predictions

Cyclic models, particularly the ekpyrotic scenario proposed by Steinhardt and Turok, predict scalar perturbations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) that align with the power spectrum observed by the Planck satellite in 2018, providing a key empirical consistency with standard cosmological parameters. In contrast, Penrose's conformal cyclic cosmology (CCC) anticipates distinctive "Hawking points"—low-variance circular spots in the CMB arising from black hole evaporation in a prior aeon—which have been actively searched for in reanalyses of Planck data throughout the 2020s, though no conclusive detections have emerged to date. Recent observational updates from 2024 and 2025 have bolstered interest in cyclic models involving phantom energy. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey's 2025 results indicate hints of evolving dark energy with a decaying equation-of-state parameter, potentially favoring phantom-like behavior (w < -1) that aligns with turnover mechanisms in models like Baum–Frampton's phantom energy cyclic universe. However, direct evidence for a cosmic bounce remains absent, as no pre-bounce relics have been identified in current datasets. Gravitational wave observations offer promising tests for cyclic scenarios. A 2025 analysis in conformal cyclic cosmology proposes that the transition between aeons occurs during a phase dominated by gravitational waves, predicting a distinct tensor spectrum observable by future detectors.^[21] Additionally, supercomputer simulations from August 2025 using numerical relativity have modeled bounce dynamics as alternatives to inflation, demonstrating how gravitational waves could generate primordial structures without an inflaton field, consistent with CMB flatness and homogeneity.^[32] A critical observational discriminator for ekpyrotic cyclic models is the level of primordial non-Gaussianities in the CMB, which are predicted to be significantly larger (f_NL ~ 10–100) compared to the near-Gaussian fluctuations in standard slow-roll inflationary models.^[33] These enhanced non-Gaussianities, arising from the slow-contraction phase, provide a testable prediction distinguishable by upcoming CMB experiments like the Simons Observatory or CMB-S4, though current Planck constraints remain consistent with both paradigms.^[34]

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