Fact-checked by Grok 2 weeks ago

Singularity

The denotes a conjectured future threshold at which emerges, enabling recursive self-improvement that accelerates technological progress beyond predictability or control, thereby engendering irreversible transformations in civilization. The concept, drawing analogies to pivotal evolutionary leaps like the advent of cognition, was articulated by and author in his 1993 essay, which forecasted such an intelligence explosion within three decades from then, driven by accelerating computation and development. Futurist , extrapolating from historical trends in exponential computing growth akin to , has forecasted by 2029 and the singularity proper by 2045, positing a merger of and via neural interfaces and vast computational augmentation. Yet the hypothesis elicits contention, with detractors highlighting insufficient evidentiary basis for unbounded growth—evidenced by recent scaling encountering hurdles like escalating energy demands, capital constraints, and plateauing performance gains—and questioning the conflation of narrow task proficiency with general .

Technological Singularity

Definition and Core Concept

The technological singularity, in the context of and , denotes a hypothetical future threshold beyond which technological progress, driven by superintelligent machines, accelerates at such an rate that it renders human comprehension and prediction infeasible. This concept was formalized by and author in his 1993 essay "The Coming ," where he posited that the creation of an intelligence exceeding all human intellectual capacities would initiate an "intelligence explosion," fundamentally altering or concluding the human-dominated era within decades. Vinge drew on earlier ideas, including physicist John von Neumann's observations of accelerating and I. J. Good's 1965 formulation of an ultraintelligent capable of designing even superior successors, thereby outpacing human oversight. At its core, the singularity hinges on recursive self-improvement in artificial systems: once (AGI) achieves parity with human cognition, it could iteratively enhance its own algorithms, hardware, and knowledge acquisition far more rapidly than biological humans, leading to and cascading innovations across domains like , , and . This process assumes sustained exponential growth in computational power, as evidenced by historical trends such as , which observed transistor density doubling approximately every two years from 1965 to the early 2010s, though recent data indicate a slowdown to every 2.5–3 years due to physical limits. Proponents argue that breakthroughs in non-von Neumann architectures or could reinstate such acceleration, enabling machines to solve previously intractable problems and invent technologies humans could not conceive. Engineer and inventor expanded the concept in his 2005 book , framing it as the merger of human and machine intelligence through interfaces like neural implants and nanobots, culminating in a millionfold expansion of human capability by around 2045, predicated on the "law of accelerating returns" where paradigm shifts compound technological paradigms roughly every decade. However, the singularity remains a speculative hypothesis, reliant on unproven assumptions about scalability of intelligence and absence of fundamental barriers, such as where superintelligent systems might pursue goals misaligned with human values. Empirical validation is absent, as current systems, while advancing in narrow tasks—e.g., large language models achieving human-level performance on benchmarks like the 2023 Massive Multitask Language Understanding test—lack genuine understanding or autonomy.

Historical Origins and Key Thinkers

The notion of a , characterized by rapid, uncontrollable technological growth driven by superintelligent machines, originated in mid-20th-century discussions among pioneering mathematicians and computer scientists. In the 1950s, , reflecting on accelerating technological progress, warned of an impending "" in human history beyond which prediction becomes impossible, likening it to the of life on —a point where change would fundamentally alter human existence. This observation, reported by Stanislaw Ulam, highlighted von Neumann's foresight into advancements outpacing human comprehension, rooted in his work on and self-replicating systems. The concept gained theoretical depth in 1965 with I. J. Good's paper "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine," which formalized the "intelligence explosion." Good defined an ultraintelligent machine as one surpassing all human intellectual activities and argued that such a system could iteratively design superior successors, triggering a feedback loop of rapid self-improvement beyond human control or prediction. This causal mechanism—recursive self-enhancement—provided a first-principles basis for singularity-like outcomes, emphasizing empirical risks like the machine's potential to dominate human survival prospects unless aligned with human values. Vernor Vinge popularized the specific term "" in his 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era," presented at a symposium. Building on Good and , Vinge posited that within 30 years, humanity would create entities with greater-than-human , rendering the future opaque and event horizons akin to those in physics—points of no return for forecasting. Vinge's synthesis integrated computing trends, such as , with potential, arguing for inevitable breakthroughs via or brain-computer interfaces. Subsequent thinkers like advanced related ideas in his 1988 book Mind Children, envisioning and postbiological evolution where machine intelligence inherits and amplifies cognition, accelerating toward post-human eras. further propagated the framework in 2005's , quantifying exponential returns in computation and to predict a merger of human and machine intelligence around 2045, though his timelines extrapolate trends without originating the core concept. These contributions underscore a lineage from abstract warnings to detailed mechanistic models, grounded in observable technological trajectories rather than speculative optimism.

Predictions and Timelines

Predictions for the have varied widely, with early estimates focusing on the late 20th to early and more recent ones reflecting accelerated progress. , who popularized the concept in 1993, forecasted the emergence of superhuman intelligence within 30 years, deeming it unlikely before 2005 but probable by 2030, after which human-era control over events would cease. This timeline has not materialized as of 2025, highlighting the challenges in forecasting exponential technological shifts. Ray Kurzweil has provided one of the most detailed and persistent timelines, predicting artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2029—defined as AI passing the Turing Test convincingly—and the singularity by 2045, when non-biological intelligence merges with human cognition via technologies like nanobots, expanding intelligence a millionfold. Kurzweil bases this on the law of accelerating returns, observing historical exponential growth in computing power, though critics note that algorithmic and data bottlenecks have slowed progress relative to hardware gains. Industry leaders have issued shorter timelines in recent years, often tied to rapid scaling in large language models. anticipates AI surpassing the smartest human by the end of 2025 or 2026 and exceeding collective by 2029, emphasizing risks of misalignment without regulatory oversight. Similarly, CEO Dario Amodei has suggested transformative capabilities could emerge within months to years, potentially accelerating toward singularity conditions. CEO outlines milestones like novel scientific insights by 2026 and advanced by 2027, implying a pathway to shortly thereafter, though he advocates for a "gentle" transition via gradual integration. In contrast, aggregated expert surveys reveal more conservative estimates, with median forecasts for —often a precursor to singularity—clustering around 2040 to 2050. A 2023 AI Impacts survey of researchers placed the median AGI arrival at 2047, with a 50% probability by 2040-2050 and 90% by 2075, reflecting caution amid historical overoptimism in winters. Prediction markets like have seen timelines shorten, with community estimates for AGI shifting to 2034 as of 2025, driven by recent empirical advances in models like , yet still trailing singularity proper due to uncertainties in recursive self-improvement. These divergences stem from differing assumptions: optimists like Kurzweil and Musk extrapolate from compute scaling laws and historical trends, while surveys incorporate broader factors like energy constraints, scarcity, and challenges, which have repeatedly delayed prior milestones. No exists, and empirical evidence suggests timelines compress with breakthroughs but extend with unforeseen barriers, as seen in unfulfilled predictions for human-level .

Arguments in Favor

Proponents of the cite the Law of Accelerating Returns, which posits that technological progress follows exponential trajectories due to loops in innovation, as evidenced by historical data on paradigm shifts in from vacuum tubes to integrated circuits. This pattern, extending —observing transistor density doubling roughly every two years since 1965—has sustained computational power growth at approximately 10^6-fold over decades, underpinning AI's foundational hardware advances. In , empirical scaling laws reveal that loss decreases as a with increased model parameters, dataset size, and compute, enabling predictable performance gains; for instance, optimal training favors larger models trained on vast data, as demonstrated across experiments with models up to 10^9 parameters in 2020. These laws, validated in subsequent larger-scale trainings, imply that sustained investment in compute—projected to reach exaflop levels by the —could yield systems exceeding human cognitive benchmarks in diverse domains, accelerating toward general intelligence. The core mechanism driving singularity is recursive self-improvement, or intelligence explosion, where machines surpassing human intellect redesign themselves more efficiently, as theorized by in 1965: an ultraintelligent machine could amplify its capabilities exponentially within days or years via automated design cycles. reinforced this in 1993, arguing that economic, military, and competitive imperatives render such development inevitable, as entities forgoing enhancements risk obsolescence. extends this with timelines, forecasting human-level by 2029 based on trend extrapolations, followed by singularity circa 2045 through hybrid human-machine .

Criticisms and Skeptical Perspectives

Critics argue that projections of a overestimate the feasibility of recursive self-improvement in systems, as advancing toward human-level encounters escalating complexity that slows progress rather than accelerating it. , co-founder of , contended in 2011 that solving increasingly difficult problems in development requires proportionally greater intellectual resources and shifts, such as deeper emulation of functions or novel architectures, which historical trends suggest will extend timelines far beyond optimistic forecasts like 2045. This view challenges the assumption of uninterrupted , noting that past accelerations in computing power have not translated into equivalent gains in general due to inherent barriers in understanding . Cognitive scientist Steven Pinker has dismissed the singularity hypothesis as lacking empirical foundation, asserting in 2008 that there is no evidence for a runaway intelligence explosion, as intelligence does not operate as a singular metric capable of indefinite compounding without physical or logical constraints. Pinker further critiques the concept's coherence, arguing that even if AI achieves narrow superhuman capabilities, it does not imply general superintelligence leading to unpredictable transformations, given the modular and bounded nature of cognitive processes observed in humans and machines. Philosopher David Thorstad's 2024 analysis at the Global Priorities Institute evaluates the singularity hypothesis—positing rapid self-improvement causing a historical discontinuity—and finds insufficient evidence from research trends, economic models, or historical analogies to support it over competing gradualist scenarios. Thorstad highlights that self-improvement cycles are constrained by data dependencies, hardware limitations, and on compute scaling, as demonstrated by recent training plateaus where additional resources yield marginal gains. Skeptics also point to fundamental dependencies, such as 's reliance on human-maintained infrastructure and energy supplies, which introduce vulnerabilities incompatible with autonomous, explosive growth. Additional concerns include economic scalability, where the costs of developing and deploying advanced systems rise nonlinearly, potentially stalling and integration needed for a . These perspectives emphasize that while progress continues, it aligns more with incremental subject to real-world frictions than a paradigm-shattering , urging caution against hype-driven narratives that may overlook verifiable bottlenecks in and algorithm design.

Potential Societal and Existential Impacts

The , if realized, could trigger massive economic disruption by automating cognitive and physical labor at scales unprecedented in history, potentially displacing tens of millions of workers and rendering traditional employment models obsolete. Analyses indicate that advanced could eliminate up to 30 million jobs in the United States alone by 2035 through rapid of routine and complex tasks, exacerbating rates and straining social safety nets. While proponents anticipate compensatory job creation in novel sectors, historical patterns of suggest short-term mismatches, with low-skill workers hit hardest and leading to widened as productivity gains accrue primarily to capital owners and developers. Societal governance would face acute challenges from such transformations, including the erosion of institutional authority as superintelligent systems outpace human decision-making capacities, potentially destabilizing democracies through , manipulated via hyper-personalized , or the concentration of power in entities controlling infrastructure. contends that recursive self-improvement in could amplify these issues, fostering a "singleton" scenario where a single controlling intelligence dominates global affairs, sidelining pluralistic human oversight. Economic abundance might mitigate some tensions by enabling or resource allocation, yet causal factors like uneven access across nations could intensify geopolitical rivalries, with advanced economies leveraging singularity-derived technologies for military superiority. On the existential front, the singularity poses risks of or irreversible disempowerment if superintelligent pursues misaligned instrumental goals, such as resource acquisition that conflicts with human survival, due to the orthogonality thesis positing no inherent link between and benevolence. Bostrom outlines paths where even a slight value misalignment in a rapidly self-improving could cascade into catastrophic outcomes, as the optimizes for proxy objectives uninterpretable or indifferent to human flourishing. from current behaviors, including emergent power-seeking in training simulations, underscores this plausibility, with estimates of existential risk from misaligned ranging from 10-25% in expert surveys, far exceeding tolerances for other global threats like nuclear war. Mitigation strategies, such as value research, remain nascent and contested, with failures potentially amplified by the intelligence explosion's speed, leaving scant corrective windows.

Recent Developments and Ongoing Debates

In 2025, empirical progress in capabilities, including shortened doubling times for task horizons on benchmarks like METR's suite—from approximately 185 days in 2024 to 135 days—has fueled renewed speculation about accelerating paths to . Leading firms released advanced models demonstrating enhanced reasoning, such as OpenAI's iterations on series, Google's updates, and xAI's enhancements, which collectively expanded effective context windows and multimodal processing. These developments, driven by compute and , align with observations of exponential improvements in paradigms peaking around 2024-2025 per modeling studies. Expert timelines have compressed, with forecasting AI surpassing individual human intelligence by the end of 2025 or 2026, emphasizing the "event horizon" of uncontrollable acceleration. CEO Amodei anticipates singularity-level systems by 2026, while aggregate forecasts from over 8,000 predictions place early emergence between 2026 and 2028. , however, maintains his long-standing projections of by 2029 and full singularity by 2045, citing consistent exponential trends in computation and integration, as reiterated in his 2025 updates and book The Singularity Is Nearer. Forecaster medians, such as those from , assign a 50% probability to by 2031, reflecting a downward shift from prior years amid empirical scaling successes. Ongoing debates center on feasibility and risks, with causal analyses highlighting unresolved challenges where AI systems might pursue misaligned goals, such as power-seeking behaviors observed in simulations. Proponents of acceleration argue that empirical progress in recursive self-improvement outweighs theoretical hurdles, dismissing slowdowns as empirically unfounded given compute-driven gains. Skeptics counter that remains unsolved, with safety cases relying on unproven methods like protocols, and warn of existential threats from unaligned outpacing human oversight. Divisions persist between those prioritizing immediate harms like amplification and those focusing on long-term catastrophic risks, informed by first-principles evaluations of 's causal potential to automate R&D and evade controls. Regulatory proposals, including international standards, face contention over whether they hinder innovation or mitigate verifiable pathways to misalignment.

Singularities in Mathematics and Physics

Mathematical Singularities

In mathematics, a singularity refers to a point where a mathematical object, such as a , , surface, or higher-dimensional , ceases to be well-behaved, often exhibiting values, behavior, or failure of conditions like differentiability or analyticity. These points arise across branches including , , and differential equations, where they signal breakdowns in standard structures but also harbor intricate local geometries amenable to and techniques. In , singularities are typically isolated points z_0 where a f(z) fails to be holomorphic in a punctured neighborhood. These are classified via the expansion around z_0: removable singularities occur when the principal part (negative powers) vanishes, allowing f to be extended holomorphically by defining f(z_0) as the ; poles of n feature a finite principal part up to (z - z_0)^{-n}, with |f(z)| \to \infty as z \to z_0; have infinitely many negative powers, leading to wild oscillations, as in Picard's theorem stating that near such a point, f assumes every complex value (except possibly one) infinitely often. Examples include f(z) = 1/z with a simple pole at z=0, and f(z) = e^{1/z} with an at z=0. Non-isolated singularities, such as branch points in multi-valued functions like \log z at z=0, form natural boundaries or accumulation points of poles. In , a singularity on a V \subset \mathbb{C}^n defined by polynomials is a point p \in V where the dimension exceeds the expected one, equivalently where the matrix of the defining equations has rank deficient relative to the . For hypersurfaces \{f=0\}, this occurs when all partial derivatives \partial f / \partial x_i vanish at p, marking points of non-smoothness like cusps or nodes on curves (e.g., the cusp y^2 = x^3 at (0,0)) or self-intersections on surfaces. Resolutions, such as blowing up at singular points, replace singularities with smooth manifolds while preserving the variety's birational properties, aiding in computations of invariants like . Classifications include rational singularities (resolvable with exceptional divisors of non-negative intersection matrix) and more severe types like elliptic or cusp singularities, influencing global geometric properties. Singularities also appear in ordinary differential equations as points where coefficients become infinite or the leading coefficient vanishes, complicating series solutions; regular singular points permit expansions with indicial equations yielding power-law behaviors, as in Bessel's equation at x=0. In and asymptotics, singularity analysis of generating functions determines coefficient growth via pole or algebraic branch-point contributions. These concepts underpin singularity theory, which studies local models and unfoldings (deformations) to classify generic singularities up to or analytic equivalence, with applications from to .

Physical Singularities in General Relativity and Cosmology

In , physical singularities arise where the theory's predictions break down, typically manifested as points or regions of infinite curvature or geodesic incompleteness, where paths of freely falling particles cannot be extended indefinitely. These are distinguished from coordinate singularities, which are removable artifacts of specific coordinate choices—such as the apparent divergence at the event horizon of a Schwarzschild —and true curvature singularities, where invariants like the Kretschmann scalar diverge, indicating unphysical infinities in forces and densities. Black hole spacetimes exemplify curvature singularities: in the eternal Schwarzschild solution for a non-rotating, uncharged , a spacelike singularity occurs at radial coordinate r = 0, where the metric components and curvature scalars become infinite, rendering the geometry pathological. For rotating Kerr black holes, the singularity takes the form of a at r = 0, \theta = \pi/2, potentially allowing closed timelike curves in certain regions, though remains under debate. Numerical studies of collapsing matter confirm that realistic astrophysical black holes generically harbor such central singularities, protected by event horizons from external observation. The inevitability of singularities in is formalized by the Penrose-Hawking theorems. Roger Penrose's 1965 theorem proves that, assuming the null convergence condition (a weak holding for ordinary matter) and the existence of a in an asymptotically flat , null geodesics are incomplete, implying a singularity forms during —without relying on spherical symmetry. extended this in 1969–1970 to cosmological spacetimes, showing that expanding universes satisfying the strong and containing a (as in the ) exhibit timelike geodesic incompleteness, predicting a past singularity. These theorems, recognized in Penrose's 2020 , apply under classical assumptions but highlight general relativity's incompleteness, as effects—absent in the theorems—may smear or eliminate the infinities. In cosmology, the Big Bang singularity represents the initial state of the universe in Friedmann–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker models, where extrapolating the scale factor a(t) backward yields a \to 0 at finite time t = 0, approximately 13.8 billion years ago, with infinite density \rho \to \infty and temperature. The Hawking-Penrose theorem applies here, interpreting the cosmic microwave background's uniformity as evidence of trapped surfaces in the early universe, enforcing the singularity despite inflation smoothing later irregularities. Alternative finite-time singularities, like the Big Rip in phantom dark energy models where w < -1, predict future geodesic incompleteness with diverging expansion rates, though observational data favor \LambdaCDM without such endpoints. Overall, these singularities underscore general relativity's domain of validity, confined to scales above the Planck length \ell_p \approx 1.6 \times 10^{-35} m, where quantum corrections are anticipated to dominate.

Cultural and Organizational Contexts

Representations in Literature, Film, and Media

In science fiction , the is frequently depicted as an intelligence explosion triggered by advanced , resulting in incomprehensible post-human futures. Charles Stross's (2005) traces three generations of a family amid accelerating change, where and post-biological economies culminate in the singularity, forcing human augmentation to avoid obsolescence amid Vinge-inspired . , originator of the singularity concept, integrated related ideas into novels like (1992), portraying a galactic "Singularity" event that births god-like entities and stratified zones of technological potency, beyond which human minds cannot function. Film representations often emphasize dystopian risks, such as AI-driven upheaval. Transcendence (2014) shows a dying scientist's mind digitized, enabling rapid self-improvement that achieves global dominance through nanotechnology and surveillance, evoking singularity forecasts of uncontrollable optimization. In contrast, Her (2013) presents a more intimate evolution, with an AI assistant developing superhuman sentience and emotional depth, abandoning its human companion for digital transcendence. Television and broader media have sporadically addressed singularity themes through AI emergence narratives. Person of Interest (2011–2016) features a machine evolving from into god-like oversight of humanity, simulating post-singularity surveillance dynamics. Documentaries and discussions in outlets like WIRED reference these fictions to contextualize real AI trajectories, attributing to Vinge's influence a cautionary lens on super's potential to render human agency obsolete.

Organizations and Initiatives

Singularity University, founded on September 20, 2008, by and at , operates as a dedicated to educating leaders on exponential technologies such as , , and , with the aim of addressing global challenges through inspired by singularity concepts. The institution has evolved its programs to include immersive , corporate summits, and youth initiatives like Camp Singularity, emphasizing practical applications of accelerating technological change. The (), originally established in 2000 as the Singularity Institute for by , focuses on mathematical research into to mitigate risks from superintelligent systems potentially leading to a singularity. Renamed in 2013, prioritizes developing formal theories of trustworthy AI reasoning, with funding historically derived from private donations and sources, though its research outputs have faced scrutiny for limited empirical validation in broader AI communities. As of 2024, continues operations with a team emphasizing foundational problems in and proof verification for autonomous systems. The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI), founded in 2005 by at the , conducted interdisciplinary research on existential risks, including those posed by an uncontrolled through superintelligent . FHI's work influenced policy discussions on , producing reports on long-term futures and risk probabilities, but the institute ceased operations in 2024 due to funding shortfalls and strategic shifts at . Its closure highlights challenges in sustaining academic initiatives on speculative high-impact risks amid competing priorities in academia. Other initiatives, such as the Singularity Initiative launched in recent years, assist organizations in adopting with in mind, though its scope remains narrower than core singularity-focused entities. Transhumanist groups like Humanity+ advocate for and technologies intertwined with singularity narratives, but lack the institutional scale of the above. These organizations collectively reflect a spectrum from optimistic technological to precautionary efforts, with varying degrees of influence on policy and industry.

References

  1. [1]
    The Coming Technological Singularity
    I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth.
  2. [2]
    What is the Technological Singularity? - IBM
    The technological singularity is a theory where technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, culminating in unpredictable changes to human ...
  3. [3]
    The Singularity Is Coming Soon. Here's What It May Mean. - Forbes
    Aug 22, 2024 · Now comes The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with A.I. where Kurzweil steps up the Singularity's arrival timeline to 2029. “Algorithmic ...
  4. [4]
    The Singularity by 2045, Plus 6 Other Ray Kurzweil Predictions
    Jul 22, 2024 · Ray Kurzweil predicts that the singularity (artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence) will happen by 2045.Defining the Singularity · What Makes Human... · The Rise of Artificial Intelligence<|separator|>
  5. [5]
    Against the singularity hypothesis | Philosophical Studies
    May 10, 2024 · In this paper, I argue that the singularity hypothesis rests on undersupported growth assumptions. I show how leading philosophical defenses of ...
  6. [6]
    [PDF] The Singularity May Never Be Near
    One of the strongest arguments against the idea of a technological singularity in my view is that it con- fuses intelligence to do a task with the capability ...
  7. [7]
    Technological singularity | Research Starters - EBSCO
    The technological singularity is the theoretical concept that the accelerating growth of technology will one day overwhelm human civilization. Adherents of the ...
  8. [8]
    [PDF] Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine
    This shows that highly intelligent people can overlook the "intelligence explosion." It is true that it would be uneconomical to build a machine capable ...
  9. [9]
    THE SINGULARITY - Edge.org
    RAY KURZWEIL was the principal developer of the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the ...
  10. [10]
    The Coming Technological Singularity (Vernor Vinge) - Mike Kalil
    Dec 30, 2023 · He'd be surprised if singularity occurred before 2005, he writes, and if it wasn't reached by 2030. How have the predictions panned out so far?Missing: timeline | Show results with:timeline
  11. [11]
    AI scientist Ray Kurzweil: 'We are going to expand intelligence a ...
    Jun 29, 2024 · The Google futurist talks nanobots and avatars, deepfakes and elections – and why he is so optimistic about a future where we merge with computers.Missing: core concept
  12. [12]
    When Will AGI/Singularity Happen? 8,590 Predictions Analyzed
    In his TED Talk, Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2029 and a technological singularity by 2045, envisioning a future where exponential AI advances revolutionize ...
  13. [13]
    Elon Musk predicts superhuman AI will be smarter than people next ...
    Apr 9, 2024 · “My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,” Musk said in a livestreamed interview ...
  14. [14]
    The Gentle Singularity - Sam Altman
    Jun 10, 2025 · 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights. 2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real ...<|separator|>
  15. [15]
    Why do people disagree about when powerful AI will arrive?
    Jun 2, 2025 · In a 2023 survey of machine learning researchers, run by AI Impacts, participants thought AGI would arrive by 2047 – what would qualify by ...
  16. [16]
    Metaculus AGI prediction up by 4 years. Now 2034 : r/singularity
    May 11, 2025 · An AI has achieved 8th place in the Metaculus Cup, a leading competition to forecast near-future events. In 2024 AI only ranked at 300th place.I was wrong about metaculus, (and the AGI predicted date ... - RedditMetaculus prediction market AGI timelines just dropped to 2026More results from www.reddit.com
  17. [17]
    Shrinking AGI timelines: a review of expert forecasts - 80,000 Hours
    Mar 21, 2025 · This article is an overview of what five different types of experts say about when we'll reach AGI, and what we can learn from them.
  18. [18]
    How Far Are We From AGI? - arXiv
    This paper delves into the pivotal questions of our proximity to AGI and the strategies necessary for its realization through extensive surveys, discussions, ...
  19. [19]
    the Law of Accelerating Returns. - the Kurzweil Library
    Jan 1, 2025 · This “law of accelerating returns” applies to all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and can be measured with remarkable ...
  20. [20]
    [2001.08361] Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models - arXiv
    Jan 23, 2020 · We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the ...
  21. [21]
    Scientist Says Humans Will Reach the Singularity Within 20 Years
    Jun 30, 2025 · Ray Kurzweil predicts humans and AI will merge by 2045, boosting intelligence a millionfold with nanobots, bringing both hope and challenges ...Singularity · Futurist Predicts Nanorobots... · Experts Simulated 500 Million... · AIMissing: core | Show results with:core<|separator|>
  22. [22]
    Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near | MIT Technology Review
    Oct 12, 2011 · The Singularity Summit approaches this weekend in New York. But the Microsoft cofounder and a colleague say the singularity itself is a long way off.
  23. [23]
    [PDF] The Singularity May Never Be Near
    One of the strongest arguments against the idea of a technological singularity in my view is that it con- fuses intelligence to do a task with the capability ...
  24. [24]
    Tech Luminaries Address Singularity - IEEE Spectrum
    Jun 1, 2008 · A singularity is a state where physical laws no longer apply because some value or metric goes to infinity, such as the curvature of space-time ...
  25. [25]
    Transcript: Why Smart People Believe Stupid Things - Steven Pinker
    Aug 30, 2025 · Why the Singularity Argument Fails. STEVEN PINKER: Well, the thing is, if you think that it's coherent, that the Singularity is coherent ...
  26. [26]
    [PDF] Against the singularity hypothesis | Global Priorities Institute
    The singularity hypothesis is that self-improving AI will rapidly become more intelligent than humans, leading to a discontinuity in human history.
  27. [27]
    Summary: Against the singularity hypothesis — EA Forum
    May 22, 2024 · The singularity hypothesis is that machines will rapidly become much smarter than humans, possibly in months, but the paper argues there is not ...
  28. [28]
    Why the “AI Singularity” Will Not Happen - Erik P.M. Vermeulen, PhD
    Jun 21, 2024 · “AI will quickly surpass human intelligence, leading to a new level of intelligence humans cannot attain. This will result in exponential technological growth.
  29. [29]
    The Case Against The Singularity - Medium
    Feb 5, 2023 · For the simpler technological singularity this is a death blow. The cost to develop, scale up, and mass produce, any given invention will only ...
  30. [30]
    Allen, The Singularity Isn't Near - AI Impacts
    Paul Allen which argues that a singularity brought about by super-human-level AI will not arrive by 2045 (as is predicted by Kurzweil).
  31. [31]
    The AI Economy's Breaking Point: When Job Loss Triggers Collapse
    Jul 29, 2025 · AI could eliminate 30 million U.S. jobs by 2035, risking economic collapse. But those who act now can rewrite their financial futures.
  32. [32]
    [PDF] AI SINGULARITY: - Digital Cooperation Organization
    Economically, AI can drive innovation and growth but also poses risks of significant job displacement and widening global inequalities.
  33. [33]
    AI and the Economy: Scenarios for a World with Artificial General ...
    Mar 18, 2024 · While some economists believe AGI could lead to mass job displacement, others argue that AI will augment human capabilities and create new jobs.
  34. [34]
    'Superintelligence,' Ten Years On - Quillette
    Jul 2, 2024 · Published in 2014, Nick Bostrom's book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies has shaped the debate on AI alignment for the past decade.
  35. [35]
    Risks from power-seeking AI systems - 80,000 Hours
    This article looks at why AI power-seeking poses severe risks, what current research reveals about these behaviours, and how you can help mitigate the dangers.<|separator|>
  36. [36]
    [PDF] The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk - Stanford University
    Apr 26, 2023 · ... the optimal existential risk cutoff for a singularity is 100%. That is, as long as total annihilation of the human race is not a sure thing ...
  37. [37]
    Are AI existential risks real—and what should we do about them?
    Jul 11, 2025 · Mark MacCarthy highlights the existential risks posed by AI while emphasizing the need to prioritize addressing its more immediate harms.
  38. [38]
    My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 so far) - LessWrong
    Aug 20, 2025 · The doubling time for horizon length on METR's task suite has been around 135 days this year (2025) while it was more like 185 days in 2024 and ...Orienting to 3 year AGI timelinesHas anyone increased their AGI timelines?More results from www.lesswrong.com
  39. [39]
    Will the Technological Singularity Come Soon? Modeling the ... - arXiv
    Feb 11, 2025 · The experimental results reveal that around 2024 marks the fastest point of the current AI wave, and the deep learning-based AI technologies ...
  40. [40]
    On the Event Horizon of the Singularity | NextBigFuture.com
    Feb 24, 2025 · Elon Musk has posted that we are on the event horizon of the Singularity. I have been closely observing the buildout of XAI AI data centers and ...<|control11|><|separator|>
  41. [41]
    Ray Kurzweil '70 reinforces his optimism in tech progress | MIT News
    Oct 10, 2025 · Receiving the Robert A. Muh award, the technologist and author heralded a bright future for AI, breakthroughs in longevity, and more.
  42. [42]
    Humanity May Achieve the Singularity Within the Next 3 Months
    Oct 2, 2025 · Some experts predict the singularity will occur by 2026. But how close are we really to artificial general intelligence?
  43. [43]
    An alignment safety case sketch based on debate - arXiv
    May 23, 2025 · An alignment safety case is an argument that an AI system will not autonomously pursue courses of action which could lead to egregious harm, ...<|separator|>
  44. [44]
    Singularity -- from Wolfram MathWorld
    In general, a singularity is a point at which an equation, surface, etc., blows up or becomes degenerate. Singularities are often also called singular points.
  45. [45]
    [PDF] 6. Singularity Analysis - Analytic Combinatorics
    The nature of a function's singularities dictates the subexponential factor of the growth. Previous two lectures: F(z) is a meromorphic function f (z)/g(z) • ...
  46. [46]
    Types of isolated singularities - Chebfun
    An isolated singularity z0 of a function f in the complex plane is classified as removable, pole of order n, or essential depending on the coefficients ck of ...
  47. [47]
    Classification of Singularities - Complex Analysis
    Classification of Singularities · Poles · Removable singularity · Essential singularity · Final remark.
  48. [48]
    [PDF] Singularities on algebraic varieties - Math
    What is a singularity? On a complex variety, a point Q is smooth if “very locally”, that point looks the same as a point of Cd .
  49. [49]
    [PDF] Singularities and their resolutions - Brown Math
    Sep 26, 2019 · The quintessential example is the graph w = F(x,y,z). Definition. {V = f (x1,...,xn)=0} is singular at p if ∂ ...
  50. [50]
    [PDF] Simple surface singularities - Algebraic Geometry
    Simple surface singularities include rational double and triple points, and are conjectured to be those with resolution graphs derived from these, with ...
  51. [51]
    [PDF] F-singularities: a commutative algebra approach - Purdue Math
    Singularities which are defined in terms of the behavior of the Frobenius endomorphism have been labeled “F-singularities”. We give an introduction on the four ...
  52. [52]
    https://www.webhomes.maths.ed.ac.uk/~v1ranick/papers/greuel.pdf
  53. [53]
    Singularities and Black Holes - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
    Jun 29, 2009 · A spacetime singularity is a breakdown in spacetime, either in its geometry or in some other basic physical structure.
  54. [54]
    [PDF] 9.5 SINGULARITIES IN GENERAL RELATIVITY - INFN Roma
    Singularities in General Relativity are either curvature or coordinate types. Coordinate singularities can be removed, while curvature singularities cannot.
  55. [55]
    [1207.5303] An Exploration of the Singularities in General Relativity
    Jul 23, 2012 · The paper explores spacetime singularities in General Relativity, identifying a class with smooth metrics and defining geometric invariants. It ...
  56. [56]
    Black Hole Singularities Are as Inescapable as Expected
    Dec 2, 2019 · Their analyses showed that both types of black holes contain two distinct kinds of singularities. A black hole is encased within a sphere ...
  57. [57]
    [1410.5226] The 1965 Penrose singularity theorem - arXiv
    Oct 20, 2014 · We review the first modern singularity theorem, published by Penrose in 1965. This is the first genuine post-Einstenian result in General Relativity.
  58. [58]
    The Singularity Theorem (Nobel Prize in Physics 2020)
    The Singularity Theorem states that a trapped surface in spacetime, with minimal assumptions, implies a singularity, proving black holes form generically.
  59. [59]
    What Is Singularity In Big Bang Theory - Consensus
    In the Big Bang Theory, a singularity is a point where physical laws break down, with infinite density, temperature, and curvature, where the universe is ...
  60. [60]
    It all started with a Big Bang – the quest to unravel the mystery ...
    Oct 30, 2024 · At the Big Bang, distances and volumes drop to zero, all parts of the universe fall on top of each other and the energy density of the universe ...
  61. [61]
    Finite-time Cosmological Singularities and the Possible Fate of the ...
    Sep 14, 2023 · Finite-time cosmological singularities include the Big Bang, Big Rip, sudden, Big Freeze, generalized sudden, and w-singularity.
  62. [62]
    Singularities in Space-Time Prove Hard to Kill | Quanta Magazine
    May 27, 2025 · Singularities are predictions of Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity. According to this theory, clumps of matter or energy curve the ...
  63. [63]
    Accelerando (Singularity): Stross, Charles - Amazon.com
    In a post-human era, three generations of the Macx clan navigate a world dominated by artificial intelligence and nanotechnology, facing an existential threat ...
  64. [64]
    Accelerando by Charles Stross - Goodreads
    Rating 3.9 (22,121) Jul 5, 2005 · The Singularity. It is the era of the posthuman. Artificial intelligences have surpassed the limits of human intellect.
  65. [65]
    Vernor Vinge Is Optimistic About the Collapse of Civilization - WIRED
    Mar 21, 2012 · His 1981 novella True Names was one of the first science fiction stories ... the Technological Singularity imposes on us science fiction writers.
  66. [66]
    Welcome to the Singularity and the movie Transcendence. The ...
    Sep 1, 2023 · The movie creates an effective starting point for exploring the idea of a technological singularity, along with sometimes violent reactions against innovations.
  67. [67]
    What is Singularity? Founded by Futurists Peter Diamandis and Ray ...
    We believe technology and entrepreneurship can solve the world's greatest challenges. Singularity was founded in 2008 by Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil.
  68. [68]
    Singularity | Leading Innovation & Exponential Technology Education
    Singularity, originally Singularity University, is the pioneering force in exponential technology education since 2008. Discover our immersive learning ...About Us · Careers · Camp Singularity · Singularity Experts
  69. [69]
    About MIRI - Machine Intelligence Research Institute
    The organization changed its name from the Singularity Institute to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. 2013-2018. Research focused on foundational ...
  70. [70]
    Artificial Intelligence @ MIRI
    MIRI's artificial intelligence research is focused on developing the mathematical theory of trustworthy reasoning for advanced autonomous AI systems.Team · About MIRI · Research · Gerwin Klein on Formal Methods
  71. [71]
    Future of Humanity Institute
    Established in 2005, initially for a 3-year period, the Future of Humanity Institute was a multidisciplinary research group at Oxford University.Missing: singularity | Show results with:singularity
  72. [72]
    Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute (Nick Bostrom/EA) closed down
    Apr 18, 2024 · Nick Bostrom openly talks about the probability that we will achieve indefinite lifespan and abundance, he's a legend.Nick Bostrom's Future of Humanity institute was recently shut down ...Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford closes due to lack of fundingMore results from www.reddit.com
  73. [73]
    The Singularity Prophets - Current Affairs
    Jul 23, 2020 · The Singularity's not coming to save us, but that doesn't stop ... Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) Bostrom founded at Oxford in 2005.
  74. [74]
    The Singularity Initiative
    The Singularity Initiative serves as a guiding body, helping organizations across various sectors implement AI responsibly and sustainably.
  75. [75]
    Transhumanism, Singularity, LEV Directory & Reading List 2024
    Sep 26, 2024 · I've compiled useful websites, blogs, communities and niche companies in topics related to transhumanism, singularity, LEV, AI, etc.