Daniel Wagner
Daniel Wagner is the chief executive officer of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk advisory firm he founded, and managing director of Multilateral Accountability Associates. With more than three decades of experience assessing and managing political and cross-border risks, he has held senior positions at organizations including AIG, GE Energy Financial Services, the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the World Bank Group's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency.[1] Wagner holds a bachelor's degree in political science from Richmond, the American International University in London, a master's degree in international relations from the University of Chicago, and a master's degree in international management from Thunderbird School of Global Management. He is the author of twelve books on risk management and international affairs, including Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner's Guide to the Quantitative Analysis of Sovereign Risk (2012) and Global Risk Agility and Decision Making (2016), and has published over 700 articles in outlets such as the South China Morning Post, HuffPost, and Diplomatic Courier. Wagner also served as Adaptation Finance Lead and Technical Advisor for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at COP28 in 2023.[1][2]Early life and education
Early years
Daniel Wagner was born in the United States.[3] Limited public details are available regarding his family background and formative years prior to university.Academic career
Wagner earned a bachelor's degree in political science from Richmond, the American International University in London.[4] Following his bachelor's, Wagner pursued advanced degrees to deepen his expertise in cross-border dynamics. He obtained a master's degree in international management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management, formerly known as the American Graduate School of International Management.[5] Complementing this, he completed a master's degree in international relations from the University of Chicago.[4]Professional career
Initial roles in risk management
Daniel Wagner began his career in the late 1980s at American International Group (AIG) in New York as a political risk insurance underwriter.[6] In this initial role, he focused on assessing country-specific risks for international investments, evaluating political stability, regulatory environments, and potential disruptions to cross-border projects.[7] His work involved analyzing emerging markets to determine insurability, helping clients mitigate exposures in volatile regions.[8] Over the subsequent decade, Wagner advanced within AIG, taking on country risk management and advisory positions, including as regional manager for political risks in Southeast Asia and Greater China in Singapore.[7] In this capacity, he handled assessments for Asian markets, focusing on geopolitical tensions and market entry strategies for multinational clients.[7] Wagner's responsibilities expanded to developing customized political risk insurance products tailored for emerging markets, incorporating quantitative models for credit and political violence risks.[8] Key projects included underwriting coverage for infrastructure and energy investments in Southeast Asia and other regions, where he navigated challenges like currency controls and expropriation threats.[6] Spanning approximately 10 to 15 years, this period at AIG provided foundational expertise in private-sector risk management, culminating in a transition to senior roles, including at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).[7]Positions in multinational corporations and banks
Daniel Wagner held the position of Senior Vice President of Country Risk at GE Energy Financial Services from approximately 2005 to 2009, where he led assessments of geopolitical and economic risks for the company's global energy investment portfolio. In this executive role, he advised senior leadership on the risk profiles associated with proposed deals spanning more than 60 countries, emphasizing strategic mitigation strategies for investments in emerging markets. His work at GE contributed to the evaluation of high-stakes energy projects, including those in volatile regions, by integrating political risk analysis into decision-making processes.[1][9][8] Prior to joining GE, Wagner served as Senior Guarantees and Syndications Specialist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila for four years in the early 2000s, focusing on infrastructure financing and risk mitigation for projects across developing Asian economies. In this capacity, he managed syndication efforts and guarantee structures to facilitate private sector involvement in large-scale infrastructure initiatives, developing frameworks to address credit and political risks in the region. His contributions at the ADB helped enhance the bank's ability to mobilize capital for sustainable development while minimizing exposure to country-specific uncertainties.[10][11][5] Prior to the ADB, Wagner served as Guarantee Officer for the Asia Region at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), a member of the World Bank Group, for five years, developing risk mitigation strategies to facilitate foreign direct investment in emerging markets.[12] In this role, he contributed to global risk frameworks that supported poverty reduction efforts by insuring investments in infrastructure and development projects across Asia, helping to de-risk private sector participation in high-impact initiatives.[9] His work at MIGA also extended to climate-resilient projects, where he helped integrate environmental risk assessments into investment guarantees to promote sustainable development in vulnerable regions.[13] Wagner also held roles at the African Development Bank (AfDB) during the mid-2010s as a senior consultant, where he concentrated on infrastructure financing and risk mitigation strategies for investments in African markets. He contributed to policy development for sustainable investments and the creation of risk modeling tools for loan portfolios, aiding in the assessment of opportunities in resource-rich but politically complex environments. These experiences in multinational corporations and development banks equipped Wagner with insights into cross-border risk dynamics that later informed his advisory work in multilateral institutions.[4][14][15]Leadership in international development institutions
Later, Wagner joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as Senior Investment Officer for Guarantees and Syndications, working from its Beijing headquarters and Abu Dhabi office between approximately 2018 and 2023.[16] In this capacity, he managed investment portfolios focused on Asia-Pacific infrastructure, emphasizing credit and political risk guarantees to mobilize private capital for large-scale projects. In 2023, while at AIIB, he served as Adaptation Finance Lead and Technical Advisor on Private Capital Mobilization for UN COP28 in Abu Dhabi.[1] A key aspect of his tenure involved risk assessments for initiatives aligned with China's Belt and Road Initiative, including evaluations of cross-border financing risks in energy and transport sectors to ensure project viability and sustainability.[15][17] Wagner's efforts at AIIB included the development of innovative tools for emerging market investments, such as syndication structures that enhanced co-financing with other multilateral institutions and reduced barriers to funding in the Middle East and Asia.[4] These contributions influenced AIIB policies on sustainable development, particularly in integrating climate risk into guarantee products to support low-carbon infrastructure and resilient financing mechanisms.[17] As a senior leader, he supervised multinational teams on advisory projects involving high-stakes infrastructure deals, fostering collaboration across diverse stakeholders to advance cross-border economic integration.[14] His institutional experience later informed his independent advisory work, bridging multilateral expertise with private sector risk solutions.Establishment of Country Risk Solutions
In 2009, Daniel Wagner founded Country Risk Solutions (CRS), a cross-border risk advisory firm dedicated to serving corporations and governments navigating complex international environments.[9][18] This entrepreneurial venture marked Wagner's transition to independent consulting, leveraging his extensive expertise to provide tailored risk mitigation strategies in volatile global markets.[1] CRS's core services encompass political risk analysis, guidance on acquiring political and credit risk insurance, and strategic advisory for investments in high-risk regions, including pre-investment due diligence and post-investment management solutions.[19] The firm specializes in evaluating economic, political, and social risks to support informed decision-making for clients entering emerging markets.[20] Under Wagner's leadership, CRS achieved significant growth milestones, expanding its client base to include Fortune 500 companies and establishing remote operations across multiple countries to facilitate global reach.[5][21] Complementing this, Wagner serves as Managing Director at Multilateral Accountability Associates, where he focuses on enhancing governance and accountability mechanisms in international development projects.[22][2] The firm has undertaken key projects advising on high-stakes deals, such as energy sector investments in sub-Saharan Africa, technology infrastructure in Southeast Asia, and large-scale construction initiatives in the Middle East, often anonymized to protect client confidentiality.[19] These engagements highlight CRS's role in de-risking operations amid geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties.[14] As of 2025, Wagner continues to lead CRS, with an increasing emphasis on integrating AI-driven risk assessment tools and strategies for climate adaptation in investment portfolios.[23][24] Firm-generated insights on these evolving challenges also contribute to Wagner's wider body of work in risk management literature.[1]Publications
Authored books
Daniel Wagner has authored twelve books that explore themes in geopolitics, technology risks, and organizational strategies for navigating global uncertainties. Drawing directly from his decades of experience in cross-border risk management and international institutions, these works provide practical insights and forward-looking analyses for professionals and policymakers.[25] His authored books, listed chronologically by publication year, are as follows:- Political Risk Insurance Guide (1999)[26]
- Managing Country Risk (2012)[6]
- Global Risk Agility and Decision Making (2016, co-authored with Dante Disparte)
- Virtual Terror (2017)[27]
- AI Supremacy (2018)[28]
- China Vision (2019)[29]
- The America-China Divide (2019)
- The Chinese Vortex (2020)
- The China Epiphany (2024)
- Decision-Making in the Polycrisis Era (2024)
- Tales from Inside (2024)
- The New Multilateralism (2025)[30]