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Ely Ratner

Ely Ratner is an American political scientist and strategist focused on U.S. competition with and security in the . He served as of Defense for Security Affairs from 2021 to 2025, directing Department of Defense efforts to deter Chinese military coercion, strengthen alliances, and advance integrated deterrence concepts amid rising tensions over and the . Ratner earned a B.A. from Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs, graduating , and a Ph.D. in from the . His early career included roles at the Center for a New American Security, where he directed security studies, and affiliations with the and , producing analyses on Asian security dynamics and U.S. strategic responses to . In government service, Ratner held positions across administrations, including special assistant to the Secretary of Defense and deputy national security adviser to from 2015 to 2017, shaping policies on alliances and countering coercion. During the Biden administration, he led the China Task Force before his confirmation as assistant secretary, contributing to initiatives like enhanced cooperation and forward defense posture adjustments to address empirical threats from modernization. Since departing government in 2025, he has served as principal at The Marathon Initiative and senior adviser at Clarion Strategies, advocating for formalized Pacific defense arrangements to credibly deter aggression based on historical patterns of revisionist powers.

Biography

Early Life and Education

Ely Stefansky Ratner earned a B.A. from Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs in 1998, graduating as a member of . He subsequently pursued graduate studies at the , where he received a Ph.D. in ; his doctoral program spanned from 2001 to 2009.

Professional Career

Think Tank and Advisory Roles

Ratner served as an associate political scientist at the from June 2009 to August 2011, contributing to research on security and international policy challenges. Following a stint in government, he held the position of Senior Fellow for Studies at the , where his work centered on U.S.- strategic competition, regional security in , and implications for American . Ratner joined the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) as a senior fellow and deputy director of its Security Program prior to 2018. In April 2018, he advanced to Vice President and Director of Studies, later serving as Executive Vice President until 2021, overseeing the organization's research agenda, executive team contributions, and policy analysis on great-power competition, particularly in the . In advisory capacities outside formal government service, Ratner provided expertise on East Asian affairs to congressional committees and policymakers, drawing from his experience to inform strategies on deterrence and alliances.

Government Positions Prior to DoD

Ratner held early government positions in the U.S. Senate, serving as a professional staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and in the office of then-Senator . From 2011 to 2012, he worked at the U.S. Department of State in the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs as a China desk officer, addressing issues related to 's military modernization and regional dynamics during his tenure as a International Affairs Fellow. Ratner returned to government service from 2015 to 2017 as to , managing a global portfolio with a primary focus on strategic challenges, including U.S. alliances and competition with .

Tenure as Assistant Secretary of Defense

Ely Ratner was nominated by President on April 21, 2021, to serve as of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs. The Senate confirmed his nomination unanimously on July 22, 2021. He was sworn in by Secretary of Defense on July 25, 2021, en route to for security consultations. In this role, Ratner advised the Secretary and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy on security matters in the , with primary emphasis on strategic competition with . During his tenure from 2021 to 2025, Ratner prioritized enhancing U.S. military posture and deterrence capabilities in the . He oversaw initiatives that included rotational deployments of advanced capabilities, prepositioning of equipment, and infrastructure upgrades across the region. In December 2023, Ratner described the preceding year as "the most transformative year for U.S. force posture in the in a generation," citing progress in dispersing forces to improve survivability and responsiveness against potential Chinese aggression. These efforts aligned with the National Defense Strategy's focus on integrated deterrence. Ratner advanced U.S. alliances and partnerships to counter regional threats. He contributed to deepening defense ties with the Philippines, including expanded access to bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and joint exercises. In July 2024, he highlighted the trajectory of U.S.-Philippine cooperation since 2021 as a model for burden-sharing and interoperability. Similar enhancements occurred with Japan and Australia through trilateral mechanisms, supporting frameworks like AUKUS and the Quad. In March 2024 congressional testimony, he noted these alliances' role in contributing to regional security over the first three years of the Biden administration. On China policy, Ratner led the office responsible for the annual Department of Defense report on military developments, including the 2024 edition assessing capabilities. He emphasized strengthening deterrence in the through U.S. presence and allied coordination to deter coercion or invasion. In October 2023 keynote remarks at CSIS, Ratner discussed China's power projection and the need for U.S. responses grounded in empirical assessments of Beijing's modernization. His tenure also involved diplomatic- engagements, such as a December 2024 video call with a counterpart on operational .

Post-Government Activities

In May 2025, Ratner joined The Marathon Initiative, a non-partisan think tank focused on long-term U.S. national security challenges, as a Principal. In this position, he contributes to research and analysis on great power competition, drawing on his prior government experience to inform strategic recommendations. Concurrently, Ratner became a Senior Adviser at Clarion Strategies, a strategic advisory firm specializing in defense, security, and international affairs consulting. He has focused on expanding the firm's Indo-Pacific practice, advising clients on policy and geopolitical risks in the region. Ratner has maintained an active role in public discourse on U.S. strategy. On May 27, 2025, he authored "The Case for a Pacific " in , arguing for a formal alliance structure akin to to enhance deterrence against Chinese military coercion, emphasizing integrated defense planning and collective burden-sharing among partners. He participated in a June 26, 2025, discussion at the on coalitions and Asian security architectures amid U.S.- tensions. On October 7, 2025, Ratner testified before the U.S. Foreign Relations Committee's Subcommittee on , the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity during a hearing titled "Combatting the of China's Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive, and Deceptive Behavior in the ." His for the record, "Standing Up in the Grey Zone: Recommendations for ," outlined measures to counter China's non-kinetic aggression, including enhanced allied and of gray-zone responses.

Policy Positions

U.S.-China Strategic Competition

Ely Ratner has framed U.S.- strategic competition as a contest over the future character of the region, with the seeking to preserve a free and open against 's push for dominance through military , economic , and ideological . In his view, 's illiberal poses risks to U.S. alliances, economic interests, and global norms, exemplified by territorial assertiveness in the and threats to . He argues that unchecked Chinese advances could erode U.S. strategic advantages, citing military parity, theft, and regional diplomatic inroads as key challenges. Ratner advocates for a comprehensive U.S. response integrating , economic, and diplomatic efforts, prioritizing as the central focus with elevated resource allocation. Recommendations include boosting defense spending to 1.2% of GDP, enhancing export controls on sensitive technologies, and forging new trade agreements to counter . He emphasizes strengthening alliances with partners like , , and through joint capabilities and institutional mechanisms, while urging to sustain bipartisan commitment to deter . In military terms, Ratner stresses credible deterrence to prevent conflict, particularly over , through forward-deployed forces, allied , and asymmetric capabilities for regional partners. He supports modernizing U.S. operational concepts, expanding basing access in the and , and addressing China's nuclear buildup and opaque military practices. Ratner maintains that while competition is intense, U.S. success is achievable by leveraging strengths in innovation and partnerships rather than isolationist or containment-oriented approaches.

Indo-Pacific Deterrence and Alliances

During his tenure as of Defense for Security Affairs from 2021 to 2025, Ely Ratner emphasized enhancing deterrence against Chinese aggression through deepened alliances and partnerships across the region. He highlighted initiatives such as new force posture enhancements with key allies, including expanded U.S. military presence and joint capabilities in , , and the , to bolster collective defense postures. Ratner stressed the importance of allies investing in their own military strengths, stating that the U.S. strategy supports partners in acquiring advanced capabilities like long-range precision strike systems to contribute to regional deterrence rather than depending solely on American forces. Ratner advocated for a more networked and resilient security architecture, promoting trilateral cooperation—such as between the U.S., , and —and multilateral frameworks like the () to integrate intelligence sharing, joint exercises, and interoperability. In congressional testimony, he described these efforts as advancing a "shared vision" with allies to maintain a , including specific advancements like the partnership for nuclear-powered submarines with and the , which he viewed as critical for undersea deterrence. He also underscored the "unbreakable " with , citing enhanced basing and rotational deployments as examples of strengthened bilateral ties contributing to broader regional . Post-government, Ratner has argued for formalizing these alliances into a "Pacific Defense Pact" modeled on NATO's collective defense commitments, with core members including the United States, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, and potential expansion to South Korea and New Zealand. This pact, he contends, would deter Chinese military adventurism—particularly a potential invasion of Taiwan—by imposing mutual defense obligations that raise the costs of aggression through guaranteed collective response, improved military coordination, and reciprocal burden-sharing. Ratner posits that historical U.S. bilateral alliances in Asia, unlike Europe's multilateral NATO evolution, have limited deterrence efficacy, and a pact would address this by fostering integrated planning and operations. He acknowledges challenges, including domestic U.S. political divisions and China's coercive diplomacy, but maintains that the benefits in sustained doubt about aggression's success outweigh risks. In interviews, Ratner has warned that over-reliance on U.S. security guarantees undermines deterrence, urging allies like to exceed 2% GDP spending and develop offensive capabilities to share burdens more equitably. He expressed concerns that certain U.S. policy shifts, such as reduced alliance ambition or conciliatory approaches toward , could erode strategic alignment and embolden , advocating instead for sustained allied contributions to preserve peace. These positions reflect Ratner's broader view that effective deterrence requires not just U.S. forward presence but a where partners actively deter threats through integrated capabilities and commitments.

Intellectual Contributions

Key Publications and Reports

Ratner co-authored the RAND Corporation report China's Strategy Toward South and Central Asia: An Empty Fortress in August 2014, which analyzed Beijing's limited influence in the region despite economic initiatives, attributing this to geographic constraints, internal divisions among regional states, and China's focus on East Asia. At the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Ratner authored Resident Power: Building a Politically Sustainable U.S. Military Presence in Southeast Asia and Australia in 2019, proposing rotational deployments and infrastructure investments to enhance U.S. forward posture without permanent basing, emphasizing political feasibility amid host-nation sensitivities. In May 2025, Ratner published "The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact: America Needs a New Asian Alliance to Counter China" in Foreign Affairs, advocating a formal mutual defense treaty among U.S. allies like Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea to deter Chinese aggression, drawing on historical precedents like NATO while addressing alliance coordination gaps. Ratner's earlier CNAS commentary "Can China Make Peace in the South China Sea?" in 2015 critiqued Beijing's rejection of multilateral dispute resolution, arguing that China's island-building and nine-dash line claims undermined stability and required U.S. countermeasures to uphold international norms.

Congressional Testimony and Public Statements

Ely Ratner has provided congressional testimony on multiple occasions, primarily addressing U.S. security challenges posed by in the region. On December 8, 2021, as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Security Affairs, he testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the future of U.S. policy toward , emphasizing 's strategic importance at the "" and the need for enhanced deterrence to prevent coercion or invasion, while reaffirming the U.S. commitment to peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. In his prepared remarks, Ratner highlighted the risks of aggression disrupting global semiconductor supply chains and U.S. access to the region, advocating for bolstering 's asymmetric defense capabilities alongside U.S. forward posture. On September 19, 2023, Ratner appeared before the House Armed Services Committee in a hearing on defense cooperation with , where he outlined U.S. efforts to provide with defensive arms under the , including accelerated delivery of systems like missiles and HIMARS, without endorsing Taiwanese independence. He stressed the administration's opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo by either side and the importance of integrated deterrence involving U.S. forces, allies, and partners to raise the costs of potential Chinese military action. Ratner testified again on March 20, 2024, before the House Armed Services Committee on U.S. military posture and challenges in the , detailing progress in alliance strengthening, such as trilateral cooperation with and the , and investments in munitions stockpiles to counter China's gray-zone tactics and potential invasion timelines around 2027. He underscored the People's Liberation Army's rapid modernization, including hypersonic weapons and amphibious capabilities, as necessitating U.S. force posture adjustments like enhanced rotational deployments in the region. More recently, on October 7, 2025, following his departure from the Defense Department, Ratner testified before the Foreign Relations Committee's Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy on combatting China's coercive and aggressive behavior. In his statement for the record, he warned of China's ambitions to seize , dominate the , and undermine U.S. alliances, urging to scrutinize allied diplomatic and economic responses to Beijing's malign influence. In public statements outside congressional settings, Ratner has consistently advocated for a competitive U.S. strategy toward . During keynote remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on October 5, 2023, he discussed debates over potential Chinese timelines for Taiwan unification by force, referencing Xi Jinping's directives without confirming specifics, and emphasized the need for allies to prepare for high-intensity conflict scenarios. In a December 5, 2023, Defense Writers Group discussion, he reiterated the strategic imperative of deterring Chinese expansionism through credible military capabilities and burden-sharing with partners like and . These statements align with his broader critique of past U.S. engagement policies, favoring integrated deterrence over accommodation.

Controversies and Criticisms

Challenges to Engagement Orthodoxy

Ely Ratner has been a prominent critic of the long-standing U.S. policy of engagement with , which assumed that and diplomatic outreach would encourage political liberalization and integration into the . In a 2018 Foreign Affairs article co-authored with Kurt Campbell, Ratner argued that this strategy rested on fundamental misjudgments about 's trajectory under rule. U.S. policymakers overestimated the transformative power of commerce—U.S.- trade grew from $8 billion in 1986 to $578 billion in 2016—believing it would foster democratic reforms, but instead reinforced its state-directed economic model, exemplified by initiatives like "," which prioritized indigenous innovation over open markets and imposed restrictions on foreign firms. Ratner highlighted how engagement failed to anticipate or deter China's authoritarian consolidation and external assertiveness. Domestically, cracked down on dissent, detaining over 300 rights lawyers and activists in July 2015 alone, and implemented a to enforce ideological conformity, sliding "ineluctably backward into a political climate more reminiscent of in the 1970s." Internationally, militarized disputed features in the despite U.S. protests and rejected a 2016 arbitral ruling upholding Manila's claims, actions that defied expectations of becoming a "responsible ." Neither incentives nor pressures—"carrots nor sticks"—swayed as predicted, as the prioritized regime survival and power projection over liberalization. In subsequent writings, Ratner called for a "new China debate" to supplant outdated frameworks like , which assumed would yield political and market reforms but instead enabled China's growing and regional dominance. He critiqued post-Cold War U.S. optimism for ignoring the of China's Leninist system, urging a shift toward sustained to blunt Beijing's illiberal order-building in , including through enhanced U.S. competitiveness, alliance-building, and avoidance of grand bargains that concede strategic ground. This perspective informed Ratner's advocacy for policies emphasizing deterrence and over transformative , recognizing that U.S. could not readily mold China's internal evolution.

Taiwan and One China Policy Interpretations

In December 2021 testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Ely Ratner described Taiwan as "located at a critical node within the first island chain, anchoring a network of U.S. allies and partners" essential to U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, stating that "Taiwan's separation from Beijing is therefore of profound strategic importance to the United States." He explicitly linked this geographic and alliance-based rationale to U.S. policy, noting that "it is in part for these strategic reasons that this Administration, like those before it, has affirmed our commitment to our one-China policy, as guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint U.S.-PRC Communiques, and the Six Assurances." This framing drew criticism for potentially altering longstanding U.S. interpretations of the One China policy, which acknowledges Beijing's position on Taiwan's sovereignty without endorsing it and emphasizes peaceful resolution without explicit reference to U.S. strategic imperatives for separation. Critics, including analysts advocating for U.S. restraint in foreign commitments, argued that Ratner's emphasis on Taiwan as a "strategic asset" that must remain separate from Beijing represented a reckless departure from policy ambiguity, historically designed to avoid provoking unification efforts or independence declarations, and could escalate cross-strait tensions by implying U.S. opposition to any form of Chinese control regardless of circumstances. Such views, expressed by outlets aligned with de-escalation priorities, contended that the One China policy originated from diplomatic necessities in the 1970s rather than proactive strategic denial of Taiwan to China, and Ratner's testimony risked undermining bilateral understandings that have maintained relative stability. The statement broke with precedent by openly articulating geostrategic stakes—such as Taiwan's role in and alliance networks—that U.S. officials had previously avoided emphasizing to preserve policy flexibility under the framework. responded by accusing the U.S. of pursuing a "fake" policy, citing such public linkages as evidence of abandonment. Subsequent Ratner statements, including in 2023 congressional testimony and 2024 diplomatic readouts, reaffirmed U.S. adherence to the policy as guided by the and without reiterating the strategic imperative phrasing, suggesting the 2021 remarks as an outlier amid broader deterrence efforts rather than a formal doctrinal shift.

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