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Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific denotes the vast maritime domain connecting the with the western and central , encompassing a biogeographic of unparalleled as well as a strategic geopolitical construct pivotal to and economic interconnections. Originating in early 20th-century geopolitical writings by and later adapted from oceanographic usage, the term gained renewed prominence in the 2000s through Japanese strategic visions and was formalized in policies by , , , and the to promote a "free and open" regional order amid China's expanding maritime influence. Biogeographically, the region spans from to , hosting the Coral Triangle—home to over 75% of the world's coral —and serving as a hotspot for evolutionary divergence due to tectonic activity and ocean currents that facilitate species dispersal while imposing barriers like the Indo-Australian . Geopolitically, it includes critical sea lanes carrying over half of global maritime trade, with tensions arising from territorial disputes in the and Indian Ocean chokepoints, prompting alliances such as the (Quad) to enhance interoperability, deterrence, and rules-based norms without formal treaty obligations. While biodiversity hotspots face threats from , , and climate-induced bleaching, strategic dynamics reflect causal pressures from power asymmetries, including China's island-building and naval expansion, which have elicited balancing coalitions prioritizing empirical threat assessments over ideological conformity.

Definition and Geography

Conceptual Boundaries

The Indo-Pacific region's conceptual boundaries delineate a vast maritime and contiguous land expanse linking the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean through Southeast Asian waterways. In geopolitical framing, these boundaries commonly stretch from the western shores of India eastward across the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific to the United States' western coastline, incorporating over 50 countries and territories with a combined population exceeding 3 billion as of 2020. This delineation emphasizes interconnected trade routes, supply chains, and security theaters rather than rigid territorial lines, reflecting the region's role in global economic flows where more than 60% of world maritime trade transits these waters annually. Variations in boundaries arise from national strategic priorities; for instance, the ' 2017 National Security Strategy specifies the Indo-Pacific as extending "from the west coast of to the western shores of the United States," prioritizing and alliances like the . Japan's formulation, articulated by in 2007, similarly integrates the rim with Pacific island chains up to the dateline, focusing on and rule-based order. In contrast, 's perspective often extends westward to include East Africa's littoral states, underscoring historical maritime ties and countering influences in the western . These definitions exclude the eastern Pacific beyond in some contexts but consistently incorporate archipelagic states like and the as pivotal connectors. Distinguishing from biogeographic usage, geopolitical boundaries prioritize human-centric factors such as and military reach over ecological continuity; the former adapts fluidly to strategic needs, while the latter adheres to species distribution patterns from the to approximately 130°E in the Pacific. Absent a universally binding treaty, boundaries remain interpretive, with frameworks like centrality influencing inclusions of Southeast Asian nations while debates persist over peripheral areas like the Arctic's emerging links or the Middle East's partial overlap. This conceptual flexibility enables adaptive policymaking but invites contention, as evidenced by differing emphases in multilateral forums where critiques the term as exclusionary despite its own activities spanning the defined expanse.

Historical Origins of the Term

The term "Indo-Pacific" originated in the natural sciences, particularly and , where it described the interconnected tropical and subtropical waters spanning the and the western , characterized by shared faunal and floral distributions. Early scientific applications emphasized the region's biogeographic unity, driven by ocean currents and tectonic history facilitating dispersal, with references appearing in studies of reefs, mollusks, and fisheries as early as the . In geopolitical discourse, German scholar introduced the term in the to conceptualize a vast Eurasian maritime space linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, influenced by his theories of and pan-regional alliances, though this usage diverged from purely scientific framings by incorporating strategic and expansionist dimensions. Haushofer's work, drawing on observations of naval power and trade routes, positioned the Indo-Pacific as a pivotal arena for global influence, predating post-World War II institutional uses like the 1948 Indo-Pacific Fisheries Council established by the . The concept gained limited traction amid mid-20th-century focus on frameworks but persisted in niche academic circles, including Weimar-era German scholarship on oceanic connectivity. Its revival in contemporary strategy, beginning with Australian defense analyses in the early 2000s and formalized by Japanese Prime Minister Abe's address to India's Parliament, built on these foundations to address shifting power dynamics, particularly China's maritime expansion. This evolution reflects causal linkages between historical geographic realities—such as monsoon-driven currents and archipelagic chokepoints—and modern security imperatives, rather than abrupt invention.

Biogeographic and Ecological Dimensions

Marine Subregions

The marine Indo-Pacific, spanning tropical waters from the eastern African coast to the western Pacific islands, exhibits distinct biogeographic subregions shaped by oceanographic barriers, larval dispersal patterns, and historical geological events. Classifications such as the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) framework delineate these into the Western Indo-Pacific realm, covering areas from the Red Sea through the Arabian Sea to western Indonesia, characterized by monsoon-driven upwelling and semi-enclosed basins like the Gulf of Aden; the Central Indo-Pacific realm, encompassing the Indonesian seas, Philippines, and northern Australia with exceptional biodiversity due to overlapping Indian and Pacific faunas; and extensions into the Eastern Indo-Pacific toward French Polynesia, where isolation by deep ocean gaps reduces species overlap. Molecular phylogeographic analyses of 56 marine taxa further refine these divisions, supporting five primary provinces: a Western Indian Ocean province limited by the East Madagascar Current and reduced connectivity; an Eastern Indian Ocean province influenced by the Indonesian Throughflow; a Southeast Asian province centered on the Sulu and Celebes Seas; a Western Pacific province; and a Central Pacific province, with genetic breaks aligning to physical barriers like the Indo-Pacific Barrier at the Lombok Strait and the Pacific's Line Islands. These subregions reflect causal drivers including Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations that alternately connected and isolated populations via the Sunda and Sahul Shelves, as evidenced by higher endemism in peripheral areas like the Red Sea (up to 20% unique species in some groups) compared to the central "triangular" overlap zone. Ecological pressures vary across subregions, with the Western Indo-Pacific facing arid coastal influences and seasonal in the , while the Central Indo-Pacific's —spanning six countries and hosting over 600 coral (76% of global total)—experiences nutrient enrichment from outflows but heightened vulnerability to warming from the Pacific Warm Pool. Eastern extensions show steeper diversity gradients, attributable to eastward-decreasing larval retention by gyre systems. Such delineations inform , as subregional discontinuities challenge pan-Indo-Pacific management, with empirical data underscoring the need for targeted protections amid observed shifts in ranges linked to climate forcing.

Biodiversity Hotspots and Environmental Pressures

The Indo-Pacific harbors some of the planet's most biodiverse marine ecosystems, with the serving as the preeminent hotspot. This region, encompassing waters around , , , the , , and , contains over 600 scleractinian coral species, representing 76% of global coral diversity, alongside more than 2,000 reef-associated fish species and over 6,000 mollusk species. These figures underscore the area's role as a center of marine and , driven by historical geological stability and nutrient-rich . Terrestrial hotspots within the Indo-Pacific, such as and , feature high plant and vertebrate , with alone hosting over 25,000 species, 40% of which are endemic, amid fragmented habitats shaped by Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations. Environmental pressures threaten these hotspots through compounded anthropogenic and climatic stressors. Ocean warming has induced mass coral bleaching, with the 2014–2017 global event causing up to 14% mortality in Pacific reefs, including Indo-Pacific sites, by disrupting coral-algal symbioses. , from elevated CO2 absorption, erodes coral skeletons and impairs , reducing reef structural integrity by an estimated 15–20% in vulnerable areas since pre-industrial times. depletes herbivorous and predatory fish populations, promoting algal overgrowth; in the Coral Triangle, unsustainable practices have reduced fish by 50% in some locales since the . Habitat destruction from coastal development and exacerbates and nutrient runoff, smothering reefs and s; Indonesia's loss, for instance, reached 1.5 million hectares between 1980 and 2005, diminishing coastal buffering. , including plastics and agricultural chemicals, introduces toxins that bioaccumulate in food webs, while persists despite regional initiatives. outbreaks, potentially amplified by warming and runoff, have decimated populations of key species like corals. Despite relative compared to Atlantic counterparts—owing to diverse genotypes and potential—Indo-Pacific reefs project 70–90% decline by 2050 under high-emission scenarios without intervention.

Economic Dimensions

Trade Routes and Resource Wealth

The Indo-Pacific region encompasses vital maritime trade routes that facilitate over 60 percent of seaborne trade, connecting major economic centers in , , and through chokepoints such as the and the . In 2023, maritime trade volumes reached 12,292 million tons, with much of the growth driven by container shipping, including nearly 250,000 port calls by container ships in the latter half of the year. The , linking the to the , handles approximately $3.5 trillion in annual —equivalent to about one-third of GDP—and serves as the primary conduit for over 40 percent of . China's dependence on these routes underscores their economic centrality, with roughly 80 percent of its oil imports and 60 percent of imports transiting the , primarily via the . Over 90 percent of crude oil volumes moving through the in recent years have routed through this strait, highlighting its role as a narrow vulnerability for amid rising regional tensions. These passages not only support intra-regional trade but also enable the flow of raw materials and manufactured goods, with disruptions potentially cascading through global supply chains due to limited alternative paths without significant detours. Complementing these trade dynamics, the Indo-Pacific's resource wealth includes extensive exclusive economic zones (EEZs) rich in fisheries, hydrocarbons, and , underpinning economic output across littoral states. Pacific Island EEZs alone encompass vast areas for extracting , oil, and , contributing to marine sectors valued in billions through fisheries, , and potential offshore extraction. The holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and significant reserves, driving exploration interests despite overlapping claims. like , with one of the world's largest EEZs spanning over 6 million square kilometers, dominate in and production, while Australia's exports from Indo-Pacific fields exceeded 80 million tons annually in recent years, fueling regional demands. These assets, combined with deep-sea potential in polymetallic nodules, position the region as a key supplier for global and transitions, though extraction faces environmental and geopolitical constraints.

Growth Drivers and Integration Efforts

The Indo-Pacific region drives approximately two-thirds of global economic growth, underpinned by its large population exceeding half of the world's total and contributing around 60 percent of global GDP. Key growth engines include export-oriented manufacturing, with countries like Vietnam and India attracting foreign direct investment through supply chain diversification away from China, alongside burgeoning digital economies and services sectors in nations such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Infrastructure development, fueled by domestic investment and international financing, supports urbanization and connectivity, while natural resources like oil, gas, and minerals in Australia and Southeast Asia bolster commodity exports. Regional GDP growth is projected to average 4.0-4.1 percent in 2025, moderating from higher rates in prior years due to moderating post-pandemic rebounds and geopolitical frictions. Private consumption remains a primary driver, supported by low inflation and rising incomes in , where it contributed significantly to second-quarter 2025 expansion. Innovation in technology and renewable energy sectors, particularly in , , and , enhances productivity, with expected to account for much of the global innovation-led growth through 2025. However, vulnerabilities such as dependence on external demand and climate-related disruptions to and fisheries temper these advances, necessitating resilient supply chains. Integration efforts center on multilateral trade frameworks to deepen intra-regional ties and attract investment. The (RCEP), effective since January 2022 and encompassing 15 economies including , , and members, forms the world's largest trading bloc by GDP, aiming to reduce tariffs on over 90 percent of goods and harmonize to streamline supply chains. Complementing this, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for (CPTPP), ratified by 11 members including , , and , enforces high-standard provisions on intellectual property, labor, and environmental protections, with accession processes ongoing for others like the as of 2023. The U.S.-led (IPEF), launched in May 2022 with 14 partners excluding , focuses on non-tariff pillars such as resilient supply chains, clean energy transitions, and fair labor practices, though it lacks commitments that characterize traditional FTAs. These initiatives collectively facilitate over $2 trillion in annual U.S.-regional trade as of 2022, promoting FDI inflows exceeding $956 billion to the U.S. from the area, while addressing geoeconomic challenges like overreliance on single markets. Despite progress, utilization rates vary, with RCEP's implementation hindered by domestic regulatory hurdles in some members, underscoring the need for deeper institutional alignment.

Geopolitical Dimensions

Evolution of Strategic Framing

The strategic framing of the Indo-Pacific as a geopolitical construct emerged in the mid-2000s amid growing concerns over China's expanding maritime influence and the need to integrate the into regional security calculus. This shift from the narrower "" paradigm, which centered on the , reflected recognition that security challenges like territorial disputes in the and vulnerabilities extended westward to chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait. The concept gained traction through bilateral dialogues, particularly between and , where it was positioned as a framework for promoting maritime freedom and rule-based order rather than . A pivotal moment occurred on August 22, 2007, when Prime Minister delivered his "Confluence of the Two Seas" speech to the Indian Parliament, articulating the Pacific and Indian Oceans as interconnected "seas of freedom and prosperity." Abe envisioned a "broader " linking democratic partners like , , , and the to uphold open sea lanes and counterbalance authoritarian expansion, drawing on shared values without explicit military alliance language. This address formalized the Indo-Pacific as a strategic vision, influencing subsequent policy under Abe's "" (FOIP) initiative, which emphasized legal norms, economic connectivity, and infrastructure alternatives to China's . Parallel developments included the informal origins of the () in 2004, when the , , , and coordinated tsunami relief in the , highlighting their operational interoperability. proposed a formal in 2007, but it dissolved by 2008 due to domestic shifts and hesitance toward formal alignments. The framework's revival began in 2017 under U.S. President , coinciding with the U.S. pivot from "" reorientation—evident in documents and Strategy updates—to explicit Indo-Pacific emphasis, driven by empirical assessments of China's military buildup and gray-zone tactics. By 2018, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command adopted the terminology, followed by Australia's 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper and India's 2018 strategic outlook incorporating Indo-Pacific elements. The reconvened at senior official levels in 2019 and elevated to leaders' summits in 2021, focusing on vaccines, technology standards, and amid disruptions and heightened tensions. Under President , the February 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy codified investments exceeding $2 billion annually in regional assistance, alliances, and infrastructure, while critiquing China's coercive economics as empirically undermining sovereignty. Into 2024–2025, the framing has institutionalized through multilateral exercises like (expanded to include partners since 2020) and frameworks such as the U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral, responding to data on China's naval deployments surpassing 370 ships by 2023. European actors, including France's 2025 Indo-Pacific Strategy, have aligned with FOIP principles, emphasizing sovereignty partnerships over the 7,000 kilometers of French maritime domain in the region. This evolution underscores causal linkages between power asymmetries—China's GDP growth enabling assertiveness—and adaptive coalitions prioritizing deterrence through presence rather than provocation.

Key Alliances and Frameworks

The , commonly known as the , comprises , , , and the as a strategic forum promoting a through cooperation on , critical technologies, , and . Originally proposed in 2007 but dormant until revived at senior official level in 2017, the grouping elevated to leaders' summits in 2021, with subsequent meetings addressing and countering coercive economic practices. In September 2024, Quad leaders committed to initiatives enhancing via technologies like unmanned systems and monitoring, involving over 2.3 million square kilometers of ocean surveillance. AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership announced on September 15, 2021, between , the , and the , aims to sustain a rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific by advancing undersea capabilities and . Its first pillar supports Australia's acquisition of at least eight nuclear-powered by the 2040s, including three Virginia-class transfers from the starting in the late 2020s and joint development of a second-generation Australian submarine. The second pillar fosters collaboration in areas such as , , and hypersonics, with over 350 projects underway by 2024 to integrate defense industrial bases across the partners. The for Prosperity (IPEF), launched by the on May 23, 2022, includes 14 partner economies: , Brunei Darussalam, , , , , the Republic of Korea, , , the Philippines, , , and . Covering approximately 40% of global GDP, IPEF advances four pillars—, resilient supply chains, clean energy transition, and fair economy—without new tariff reductions but through commitments to , anti-corruption, and sustainable , with agreements finalized on three pillars by November 2023. ASEAN's Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), adopted on June 23, 2019, at the 34th in , underscores ASEAN centrality in regional architecture, advocating inclusive cooperation, connectivity, and while rejecting zero-sum competition. The framework promotes dialogue-based mechanisms like the and ASEAN Regional Forum, with partners such as contributing 89 projects by 2022 in areas including and marine environment protection. AOIP has guided ASEAN's engagements, including a 2023 U.S.-ASEAN leaders' statement aligning on economic resilience and maritime cooperation.

Security Threats and Responses

The primary security threat in the Indo-Pacific stems from the 's (PRC) expansive territorial claims and buildup, particularly in the and around . China has constructed and militarized artificial islands on disputed features, equipping them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft systems, radar installations, and airfields capable of supporting sustained operations, as detailed in the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 report on PRC developments. These actions challenge for commercial shipping, which carries over 80% of global trade through these waters, and have led to incidents of coercion against vessels from claimant states like the and . Regarding , PRC exercises in 2024-2025 simulated blockades and amphibious assaults, escalating hybrid threats including cyber operations and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan's allies, heightening risks of miscalculation or conflict that could draw in the United States under its commitments. North Korea's and programs constitute another acute conventional and risk, with over 100 launches recorded in 2022-2024, including intercontinental-range tests capable of reaching U.S. territory and hypersonic variants threatening regional bases. These activities, often timed to coincide with U.S.- joint exercises, undermine stability on the Korean Peninsula and complicate broader Indo-Pacific deterrence, as North Korea's arsenal—estimated at 50-90 warheads by 2025—could target allies like and , prompting calls from regional leaders for enhanced defenses. Non-state and asymmetric threats, including maritime and , persist but at lower intensity compared to state actors. incidents in the western and Southeast Asian straits totaled around 120 in 2024, down from peaks in the but still disrupting key chokepoints like the Malacca Strait, where armed robberies against tankers and container ships remain common. networks, linked to groups like affiliates in the and , pose risks to coastal populations and infrastructure, though their maritime dimensions are limited; these threats are exacerbated by ungoverned spaces and syndicates involved in . Responses to these threats emphasize alliance-building and capability enhancement to deter aggression without direct confrontation. The (Quad), comprising the , , , and , has intensified cooperation since its 2017 revival, conducting joint maritime exercises like in 2024 that involved over 15,000 personnel and focused on and humanitarian assistance, aiming to counter PRC maritime dominance. The pact, announced in 2021 between , the , and the , advances nuclear-powered acquisition for —targeting delivery of Virginia-class boats by the early 2030s—to bolster undersea deterrence in the Pacific, with pillar two expanding to , quantum technologies, and hypersonic capabilities shared among partners. The has reoriented its Indo-Pacific Command to prioritize integrated deterrence, conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the —18 in 2024 alone—and deploying assets like carrier strike groups and B-52 bombers to signal resolve against PRC coercion. Against , trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan mechanisms have been fortified, including real-time missile warning data-sharing established in 2023 and extended deterrence commitments involving U.S. strategic assets. Regional frameworks like ASEAN's mechanisms address through information-sharing centers, though effectiveness is constrained by varying national capacities. These efforts reflect a causal emphasis on credible military presence to raise the costs of aggression, drawing on empirical assessments of PRC capabilities rather than assumptions of benign intent.

Controversies and Alternative Perspectives

Critiques of Exclusionary Framing

Critics, particularly from and , have characterized the Indo-Pacific concept as an exclusionary construct designed primarily to marginalize by reorienting regional strategies away from inclusivity toward a framework that implicitly counters . analysts argue that the serves as an "artificial" geopolitical to contain 's , excluding it from cooperative architectures in favor of alliances like the () and , which emphasize without 's participation. This gained traction following the U.S. formal adoption of the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017 under the , with state media and officials, such as Foreign Ministry spokesperson in 2020, decrying it as divisive and aimed at encircling rather than fostering genuine regional stability. Russian critiques echo this, framing the Indo-Pacific as a U.S.-led mechanism that isolates both and , thereby undermining Eurasian connectivity initiatives like the Belt and Road. In a January statement, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov explicitly labeled the strategy as an attempt to "contain ," highlighting its exclusion of continental powers and preference for island-chain alliances. Such views are often disseminated through state-aligned outlets, reflecting strategic interests in preserving multipolar alternatives to Western-led orders. Within , some commentators contend that the framing erodes the bloc's centrality by sidelining , a major economic partner responsible for over 20% of 's trade volume as of 2022, in favor of extra-regional powers. This exclusion is seen as heightening intra-regional divisions, with and expressing reservations in 2013-2019 forums about the term's potential to polarize rather than integrate, prioritizing U.S.-aligned maritime domains over land-based economic ties. Geographically, the maritime-centric emphasis has drawn fire for neglecting continental interiors, such as parts of or the , limiting its applicability to holistic Indo-Pacific security. Small island developing states in the Indian and Pacific Oceans further critique their marginalization in high-level Indo-Pacific dialogues, despite comprising over 20% of the region's land area and facing acute vulnerabilities like sea-level rise projected to displace millions by 2050. Reports from Pacific Island Forum summits in 2021-2023 underscore how strategic framing often prioritizes great-power naval postures over tailored support for these nations' agency, rendering the concept exclusionary toward non-militarized perspectives. These viewpoints, while varying in intent—ranging from adversarial pushback to calls for inclusivity—highlight the concept's contested boundaries, shaped by divergent national priorities rather than uniform empirical consensus.

Empirical Justifications and Counterarguments

The Indo-Pacific framing is empirically justified by the region's dominant role in global maritime trade, with approximately 50% of worldwide seaborne trade transiting routes connecting the and Pacific Oceans, including critical chokepoints like the , through which 84% of China's imported resources flow. This connectivity has intensified since the , as the Indian Ocean's share of global trade activity rose from supporting levels to a significant portion, driven by rising intra-regional exchanges in , commodities, and manufactured goods that link East Asian economies with Asian and markets. Such patterns underscore causal linkages in supply chains, where disruptions in one ocean—such as those from or blockades—propagate across both, necessitating integrated strategic oversight rather than siloed ocean-based approaches. Security imperatives further validate the construct, as China's maritime expansion, including the construction of artificial islands in the since 2013 and assertion of expansive territorial claims overlapping with those of multiple neighbors, has generated verifiable incidents of , such as with Philippine fishing vessels in 2019 and of Vietnamese survey ships in 2020. These actions, coupled with Beijing's naval deployments extending into the via bases like (established 2017), correlate with heightened military spending—China's defense budget reached $292 billion in 2023, surpassing the combined totals of several Indo-Pacific states—and have prompted empirical responses like the (Quad) exercises, which logged over 20 joint drills by 2024 involving the U.S., , , and to enhance against shared domain-awareness gaps. Data from freedom-of-navigation operations indicate over 100 U.S. transits challenging Chinese claims since 2015, reflecting a pattern of escalating gray-zone tactics that empirically unify disparate actors around deterrence rather than ideological alignment. Counterarguments contend that the Indo-Pacific lacks empirical coherence as a singular strategic theater, pointing to persistent intra-regional divisions where trade dependencies on China—averaging 20-30% of imports for states as of 2023—often outweigh alliance commitments, leading many nations to pursue hedging strategies rather than binary bloc formation. For instance, and prioritize centrality, with data showing their bilateral trade with China growing 15% annually from 2018-2022 despite tensions, suggesting the framing overlooks causal priorities like economic pragmatism over unified threat perception. Critics, including analyses from regional forums, argue the construct is analytically artificial compared to the established paradigm, as evidenced by the absence of comprehensive Indo-Pacific-wide institutions; instead, overlapping frameworks like the (IORA, founded 1997) handle connectivity without invoking Pacific linkages, and empirical metrics on conflict incidence remain concentrated in subregions like the rather than spanning both oceans uniformly. Moreover, the framing's emphasis on countering is challenged by evidence of diverse threat vectors, such as non-traditional security issues like climate-induced affecting Pacific islands independently of dynamics, with sea-level rise projections displacing up to 1.5 million people by 2050 in low-lying atolls per IPCC , diluting claims of seamless strategic indivisibility. Western-centric sources advancing the Indo-Pacific often exhibit institutional biases toward narratives, as seen in U.S. documents that correlate regional primarily with Beijing's actions while underweighting domestic failures in partner states, such as Myanmar's coup disrupting flows more proximally than distant claims. This selective empiricism risks overstating causal unity, as bilateral reveal varying adoption rates: while members increased defense coordination, non-aligned states like deepened ties with for arms (supplying 80% of its imports in 2022), indicating fragmented rather than convergent responses.

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