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Pakistani rupee


The Pakistani rupee (Urdu: پاکستانی روپیہ; sign: ₨; code: PKR) is the official currency of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, subdivided into 100 paisa. It is issued and regulated exclusively by the State Bank of Pakistan, which holds the sole right to produce banknotes as per Section 24 of the State Bank of Pakistan Act. Following the partition of British India in 1947, Pakistan initially circulated overprinted Indian rupee notes under the Pakistan (Monetary System and Reserve Bank) Order, 1947, before the State Bank issued its first original banknotes on 1 March 1949, starting with the 2-rupee denomination. The currency has undergone multiple redesigns for security enhancements, with current legal tender denominations including 10, 20, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, and 5,000 rupees, alongside commemorative issues like the 75-rupee note marking independence anniversaries. Coins in paisa and rupee values are also minted by the State Bank, though smaller denominations see limited circulation due to inflation. The rupee's value has depreciated substantially since inception, reflecting chronic economic challenges such as fiscal deficits and balance-of-payments pressures, with the exchange rate against the US dollar shifting from near parity in the late 1940s to over 270 PKR per USD by 2023.

History

Origins and pre-independence context

The territories that formed upon independence in 1947 utilized the as the primary unit of currency for centuries, rooted in the monetary traditions of the under and administrations. Prior to British standardization, local rulers and empires issued silver coins denominated in rupees, with the term "rupee" deriving from the "rupya," signifying wrought silver. In regions like and , which became integral to , -era silver rupees circulated widely, often weighing approximately 11.5 grams and serving as a stable . Under colonial rule, established progressively from the , the began minting rupees modeled on existing Mughal designs as early as 1671, transitioning from a disordered variety of local coinages to a more uniform system. By 1835, British India adopted a mono-metallic centered on the rupee, which was minted at facilities in Calcutta, Bombay, and Madras, ensuring consistency across provinces including those later allocated to . This rupee, subdivided into 16 annas or 192 pies, facilitated trade and taxation in areas such as the Punjab Province and , annexed by the in 1843 and 1849, respectively. In the princely states within or acceding to Pakistan, such as and , rulers maintained semi-autonomous coinage rights, issuing their own silver and occasionally gold rupees aligned with the British Indian standard to avoid . For instance, State produced silver rupees bearing the nawab's name alongside Islamic inscriptions, circulating alongside imperial currency until accession in 1947. Balochistan's tribal areas and the similarly relied on rupees, often imported or locally struck in silver, reflecting the rupee's dominance despite peripheral governance. Acute silver shortages during prompted the introduction of paper notes in denominations like 1 and 2.5 rupees by the , which circulated in these regions as well. This pre-independence framework of rupee-based coinage and emerging paper currency provided the foundational monetary infrastructure for the nascent state of , with notes and coins continuing in use immediately post-partition until domestic issuance began.

Establishment and early post-independence period

Following 's independence on August 14, 1947, the new dominion initially continued using rupees issued by the , as no separate currency infrastructure existed. The (Monetary System and Reserve Bank) Order, 1947, authorized the overprinting of selected notes with "" and "Hakumat-e-" to facilitate circulation in Pakistani territory, effective from April 1, 1948, covering denominations of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 100 rupees. The was established on July 1, 1948, assuming responsibility for , currency issuance, and banking regulation to achieve economic . In parallel, the issued its first coins in 1948, retaining the pre-decimal system of 1 = 16 = 64 pice, featuring the crescent and star emblem on obverse and denomination values on reverse, minted in nickel, bronze, and copper-nickel. To address immediate needs, emergency banknotes in 5, 10, and 100 denominations were issued by the Government on October 1, 1948, printed by Thomas de la Rue & Company with simple designs including the crescent moon and star, signed by Finance Minister Ghulam Muhammad. The 's first regular series began on March 1, 1949, starting with the 2- note printed by Bradbury Wilkinson & Company, signed by Governor Zahid Hussain, depicting Jahangir's tomb; the 1- note followed concurrently, showing the . Higher denominations expanded in the early 1950s: 5- and 10-rupee notes on September 1, 1951, featuring motifs like the Khyber Pass and Shalimar Gardens, also by Thomas de la Rue; the 100-rupee note debuted on September 15, 1953, introducing security features such as watermarks and threads. The Pakistani rupee maintained parity with the Indian rupee initially, pegged indirectly to the British pound sterling, with an exchange rate of approximately 3.31 rupees per U.S. dollar until devaluation in September 1949, when Pakistan aligned with India's 30.5% depreciation to 4.76 rupees per dollar to preserve trade competitiveness within the sterling area.

Decimalization and key monetary reforms

Pakistan implemented decimalization of the on January 1, 1961, transitioning from the pre-existing subdivision of 16 annas per —each anna further divided into 4 pice—to a where 1 equals 100 . This reform, aligned with global adoption of coinage, simplified arithmetic operations in and by eliminating fractional divisions incompatible with base-10 systems. The issued initial coins in denominations of 1, 5, and 10 in 1961, with 25 and 50 coins following in 1963 to support the new structure. Subsequent monetary reforms addressed evolving economic conditions and circulation efficiency. In June 1971, amid political tensions preceding the secession of , the government demonetized Rs. 100 and Rs. 500 banknotes inscribed with political slogans, introducing a revised series to restore confidence and curb misuse. To accommodate inflation-driven demand for higher-value transactions, the introduced Rs. 2 coins in 1998, Rs. 5 coins in 2002, and Rs. 10 coins in 2016, phasing out lower-denomination paper equivalents where feasible. Small decimal coins, including those below 1 , were demonetized effective October 1, 2014, as their production costs exceeded face value and usage had declined significantly due to electronic payments and practices. These reforms prioritized practical functionality over symbolic continuity, reflecting causal pressures from , technological shifts in payments, and the need for cost-effective minting, as evidenced by the State Bank's periodic evaluations of coin viability.

Devaluations, crises, and recent developments

The Pakistani experienced its initial significant in 1955, when it was adjusted downward by 57.5% against the British pound amid post-colonial economic adjustments. This was followed in 1956 by a shift in from Rs. 2.80 to Rs. 4.76 per U.S. , reflecting efforts to align with international monetary standards and address trade imbalances. A further occurred in 1972, pegging the rupee at PKR 11 per USD, which aimed to boost exports but contributed to imported pressures. The adoption of a managed regime in 1982 marked a transition from fixed pegs, leading to cumulative depreciation exceeding 372% against the USD by subsequent decades, driven by persistent current account deficits and external shocks such as price surges. Pakistan faced acute currency crises in the late 2000s, exacerbated by the global financial downturn, which strained foreign reserves and prompted interventions by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The most severe recent episode unfolded during the 2022–2024 economic crisis, characterized by a balance-of-payments squeeze, dwindling reserves below $5 billion, and a sharp rupee depreciation of over 50% against the USD, culminating in a record low of 307.75 PKR per USD in September 2023. Lifting exchange controls in early 2023 triggered a single-day plunge of 9.6%, amplifying inflation to 38% and eroding purchasing power amid import dependency and fiscal shortfalls. This crisis necessitated an IMF bailout program, which enforced structural reforms including subsidy cuts and tax broadening to restore external viability. Post-2023 stabilization efforts yielded results, with the rupee appreciating 1.186% against the USD by end-2024—the first annual gain in seven years—supported by inflows projected at $29.8 billion for fiscal 2024–25 and improved surpluses. rebounded to approximately $19.85 billion by October 2025, while inflation eased to record lows around 4.5%, enabling SBP rate cuts to 12% by 2025. The stabilized near 281 PKR per USD through mid-2025, though minor losses of 2% since reflected ongoing vulnerabilities to global commodity prices and domestic policy execution. upgrades to B- in July 2025 by S&P underscored gradual recovery, contingent on sustained fiscal discipline and export growth.

Physical Denominations

Coins

Following independence in 1947, Pakistan initially circulated pre-partition coins until the issuance of its first domestic coins in , which included denominations of 1 pice (), ½ and 1 (), 2 ( with square outline), ¼ and ½ (), and 1 (), all featuring a emblem on the obverse and a and on the reverse. These adhered to the pre-decimal system where 1 equaled 16 and 1 equaled 4 pice. In 1961, adopted decimalization effective January 1, dividing the into 100 , with initial coins of 1, 5, and 10 introduced that year, followed by 25 and 50 in 1963, and 1 and 2 in May 1964; these smaller denominations, primarily bronze or copper-nickel, were progressively demonetized, with coins ceasing circulation by October 1, 2014. The first 1 coin appeared in 1977 to commemorate Dr. Allama Muhammad Iqbal's 100th birth anniversary, marking the shift toward higher-value circulation pieces as eroded smaller units' utility. Subsequent introductions included the 2 coin in 1998, the 5 coin in 2002, and the 10 coin on October 24, 2016, reflecting adjustments to economic conditions and production costs, with lower denominations transitioning to aluminum in for lighter weight and reduced expense. Current regular circulating are the 1, 2, 5, and 10 denominations, minted by the under oversight.
DenominationMaterialWeight (g)Diameter (mm)Shape/EdgeColorIssue Date
1 Aluminum1.7520Nov 20, 2008
2 RupeesAluminum2.622.5Nov 20, 2008
5 Rupees 79%, Zn 20%, 1%318.5-Oct 15, 2015
10 Rupees-5.525.5, serratedYellowOct 24, 2016
Commemorative coins, such as issues of rupees in 1977 and 3,000 rupees in 1976 for , have been produced alongside regular ones but do not circulate widely.

Banknotes

Following in 1947, Pakistan initially circulated banknotes overprinted with "" on issues, including emergency denominations of 5, 10, and 100 rupees printed by & Company of . The , established in 1948, issued its first original banknotes on 1 March 1949, beginning with the 2-rupee denomination produced by Bradbury Wilkinson and Company. This marked the inaugural series under SBP authority, featuring simple designs focused on national symbols. Subsequent issuances expanded the range: 5- and 10-rupee notes followed on 1 September 1951, also printed by Thomas de la Rue in . Over decades, denominations evolved to include 50 rupees in 1957, 500 rupees in 1986, 1,000 rupees in 1987, and 5,000 rupees later, alongside periodic reintroductions like the 2-rupee note in 1985. The fifth-generation series commenced on 13 August 2005 with the introduction of the 20-rupee note, incorporating enhanced security features for the first time in that denomination. As of 2025, circulating s comprise denominations of 10, 20, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, and 5,000 rupees, all polymer-based or paper with advanced anti-counterfeiting elements like optically variable ink (OVI) on select notes such as the 500-rupee variant. Commemorative issues include 75-rupee notes marking the 75th anniversary of SBP's founding in and Pakistan's independence. In January 2024, SBP announced plans for a new banknote series to replace the 2006 designs, with final designs completed by July 2025 and issuance anticipated within two years from initiation, aiming to update security amid ongoing counterfeiting challenges.
DenominationPrimary ColorKey Features
10 RupeesVariousBasic ,
20 RupeesGreenIntroduced , fifth series
50 RupeesRed/PurpleFluorescent elements
100 RupeesVariousHolographic strip
500 RupeesPurpleOVI option available
1,000 RupeesBlueAdvanced intaglio printing
5,000 RupeesYellow/GreenHighest denomination, multi-color

Design and Security Features

Evolution of designs

The designs of Pakistani rupee coins initially drew from pre-partition traditions, with the Government of Pakistan issuing its first coins on April 3, 1948, in denominations of 1 pice, 1/2, 1, and 2 annas, and 1/4, 1/2, and 1 rupee. These featured a tughra (stylized royal monogram) in Urdu alongside "Government of Pakistan" on the obverse, and a crescent moon and star enclosing the denomination value on the reverse, using materials such as bronze for smaller units and nickel for the rupee. By 1953, minor refinements incorporated wreaths or corn ears flanking the central motifs, maintaining Islamic and national symbolism while aligning with regional patterns. Decimalization on January 1, 1961, subdivided the into 100 , prompting new and copper-nickel coins in 1, 5, and 10 denominations with scalloped or fluted edges for distinction, retaining the crescent-star and updated value inscriptions. Additional 1 and 2 coins followed in 1964, featuring stalks and sheaves as elements to evoke agricultural . In the late 1990s, higher-value coins emerged: the 2- bimetallic coin in 1998 depicted the on the reverse with clouds added in 1999 for visual enhancement, while the 5- coin debuted in 2002 using copper-nickel with motifs. Material shifts to aluminum for 1- and 2- coins in 2008 reduced weight and cost, preserving core symbols like the and star for continuity. Banknote designs originated from overprinted notes in 1947, bearing "" stamps in English and across denominations from 1 to 100 rupees. The State Bank of Pakistan's inaugural series from March 1, 1949, introduced original prints: the 2-rupee note by Bradbury Wilkinson & Co. showcased Jahangir's Tomb on the front and on the back, with a crescent moon ; the 1-rupee followed with . Subsequent 1951 issues for 5 and 10 rupees by Thomas de la Rue incorporated and Makli Tombs, emphasizing historical architecture. The 1957 series marked a shift with Quaid-i-Azam Jinnah's portrait on the 100-rupee note, a feature retained in later iterations alongside security threads and updated watermarks of his likeness. Post-1971 demonetization yielded redesigned notes in distinct colors—such as for 5 rupees and for 50—focusing on national unity motifs. The 1974-1988 generation highlighted on the 1-rupee and added inscriptions like "حصول رزق حلال عین عبادت ہے" (Earning lawful livelihood is true worship) by , with new denominations up to 1000 rupees incorporating societal and Islamic themes. The 2005-2010 series introduced vibrant, denomination-specific color schemes and advanced security, debuting the 20-rupee note with Jinnah's portrait and ruins, followed by the 5000-rupee featuring . These emphasized Pakistan's civilizational depth—from Indus Valley artifacts to modern landmarks—while phasing out lower notes like 2 and 5 rupees in favor of coins by 2002. Throughout, designs balanced , national icons, and anti-counterfeiting needs, with Jinnah's image as a persistent of founding principles.

Anti-counterfeiting measures and technologies

The (SBP) employs a combination of overt and covert security features in its banknotes to combat counterfeiting, including watermarks, security threads, and specialized inks that require specific verification methods for authentication. These measures evolved from basic elements like watermarks and threads in early series to advanced technologies in later issuances, such as the incorporation of optically variable ink (OVI) and to hinder reproduction via scanners or printers. Key overt features include an enlarged depicting Muhammad Ali Jinnah's portrait, visible when the note is held against light, accompanied by an electrotype denomination numeral for added verification. A windowed , partially embedded and running vertically, displays the denomination "" (or equivalent for other notes), demetallized dashes, and fluorescent bands in yellow and under light, making it difficult for counterfeiters to replicate without specialized equipment. See-through registration aligns numeral elements between the obverse and reverse when backlit, ensuring precise printing alignment that is challenging to forge. Advanced printing techniques further enhance security: intaglio printing creates raised tactile lines and portraits detectable by touch, while latent images—such as hidden denomination numerals—emerge at specific viewing angles. Micro-lettering, with fine text like repeated "1000" along edges, requires magnification to discern and blurs under attempted photocopying. Optically variable ink on elements like the crescent and star shifts color (e.g., from to green) upon tilting, a feature reliant on proprietary formulations not easily duplicated. Anti-scan and anti-copy patterns embedded in the design produce moiré effects or distortions in digital reproductions, preventing high-fidelity scanning. Covert elements include serial numbers printed in magnetic ink for machine readability and verification by automated systems, alongside identification marks like raised circles for the visually impaired, which also serve as tactile anti-counterfeiting checks. In response to persistent counterfeiting—estimated to cause annual losses of PKR 2 billion—the SBP announced in January 2024 plans for a new series of banknotes across all denominations, incorporating upgraded holograms, enhanced threads, and other bolstered features to be introduced progressively starting later that year. These updates build on existing technologies while addressing vulnerabilities exposed by rising forgery incidents. For coins, anti-counterfeiting relies primarily on material composition, such as specific or alloys, milled edges to prevent clipping, and intricate engravings that are labor-intensive to replicate at , though these face fewer sophisticated threats compared to banknotes. The SBP supports public awareness through campaigns like "Rupay ko Pehchano," including videos, apps, and posters detailing verification methods to reduce circulation of fakes.

Exchange Rate Dynamics

Historical exchange rate regimes

Following 's in , the Pakistani rupee was maintained under a fixed , initially pegged to the British within the . This peg resulted in a of the rupee in September 1949, mirroring the sterling's 30.4% adjustment against the US from $4.03 to $2.80 per pound, which increased the rupees per dollar rate from approximately 3.31 to align with the new . accepted IMF membership in 1950 and established an initial par value for the rupee equivalent to the pre-devaluation rate, approximately 3.31 rupees per US , though this was later adjusted through consultations; the regime emphasized to support post-partition reconstruction. The fixed peg continued with periodic devaluations to address balance-of-payments deficits, notably a 44% adjustment in 1955 against the to boost exports, and further realignments in the tied to import substitution policies. After the collapse of the in 1971, the rupee shifted its effective peg to the US while retaining the fixed regime until early 1982, during which the official rate hovered around 9.90 rupees per from 1975 to 1981 amid controlled foreign exchange allocations. A significant occurred in May 1972, raising the rate to 11 rupees per following the Indo-Pakistani War and IMF recommendations to enhance competitiveness, marking a 56% effective from pre-war levels near 4.76 rupees per . These adjustments under the fixed peg were discretionary, often prompted by external pressures like aid dependencies and trade imbalances, with the rationing foreign exchange to maintain the parity. In January 1982, under General Zia-ul-Haq's administration, abandoned the fixed peg for a , allowing the to adjust based on market indicators like earnings and remittances while the intervened to limit volatility; the initial rate stood at approximately 10.10 rupees per . This shift aimed to reduce overvaluation and foster -led growth, though it led to gradual depreciation, with the rupee losing about 38.5% against the dollar between 1982 and 1988 due to rising import costs and fiscal deficits. The managed float faced strains during the economic crisis, triggered by nuclear tests and sanctions, prompting a brief introduction of multiple slabs in 1998 to differentiate commercial and transactions. These were unified by early 1999, transitioning to a more market-determined flexible system by May 1999, where the rupee's value is set primarily through trading, supplemented by interventions to prevent disorderly movements rather than targeting a specific rate. This framework, classified by the IMF as a "crawl-like arrangement" with moderate fluctuations, has endured, balancing autonomy from peg-induced crises against intervention to mitigate imported from chronic deficits.

Factors influencing depreciation and volatility

Persistent current deficits have been a primary driver of the Pakistani rupee's , as Pakistan's imports—particularly commodities like —routinely surpass exports, leading to sustained outflows of . This structural imbalance is compounded by low export diversification and competitiveness, with the deficit widening during periods of global commodity price surges. High fiscal deficits and obligations further pressure the currency, as government borrowing requirements deplete foreign reserves needed to defend the . In the 2022–2024 economic crisis, excessive external borrowing raised default risks, contributing to a sharp rupee fall and import cost escalation. Low reserves and eroding investor confidence alone drove a 27.9% against the US dollar from July 2022 onward. Similarly, in fiscal year 2009, the rupee depreciated by about 19% amid comparable reserve strains and balance-of-payments weaknesses. Domestic , often exceeding that of major trading partners, erodes the rupee's real value, necessitating periodic adjustments to maintain external competitiveness. Negative real interest rates and inadequate monetary tightening amplify inflationary pass-through from changes, as observed in responses to swelling deficits. Political instability, including governance disruptions and security challenges, deters foreign investment inflows critical for reserve buffering, while events like the 2022 floods widened trade gaps through supply disruptions. Exchange rate volatility stems from abrupt policy shifts and external shocks, such as the State Bank's removal of controls in early 2023, which triggered a 9.6% single-day plunge amid pent-up pressures. like terms of trade fluctuations, debt levels, and political stability Granger-cause rate swings, with causality running from these to variability. Dependency on volatile remittances and aid inflows, alongside global factors like interest rate hikes strengthening the , induces short-term fluctuations, often exacerbated by speculative pressures during IMF negotiations.

Economic Role and Impacts

Integration in Pakistan's economy and trade

The Pakistani rupee (PKR) functions as the exclusive and for all domestic economic transactions in , including , business operations, wage disbursements, and interbank settlements. As the unit of account, it denominates prices, contracts, and across sectors, with Pakistan's nominal GDP measured in PKR reaching approximately 84 trillion PKR in FY2024. The (SBP), as the , issues and regulates the currency to maintain monetary stability, ensuring its seamless integration into everyday commerce and implementation, such as the federal budget's revenue and expenditure allocations conducted entirely in PKR. In , the PKR integrates indirectly through market, where exporters repatriate proceeds from foreign currency-denominated sales (primarily USD) by selling to authorized dealers for PKR, while importers purchase with PKR to settle payments. This process, overseen by the SBP under a , links flows to domestic liquidity; for instance, Pakistan's merchandise exports and imports, which contributed to a deficit in services and goods, generate PKR inflows and outflows that influence dynamics and reserve accumulation. Weak regional integration and a narrow export base have historically constrained these PKR conversions, limiting broader economic benefits from stability. Remittances from overseas represent a critical integration channel, with inflows converted to PKR via formal banking channels, injecting liquidity equivalent to a record $38.3 billion (over 10 trillion PKR at prevailing rates) in FY2025, surpassing official exports and supporting the balance of payments. These funds, primarily from and other , enhance PKR availability for household consumption and investment, though competition from informal systems—offering premium rates—has occasionally fragmented integration by diverting flows outside regulated markets. Government incentives, such as reduced withholding taxes on remittances, have boosted formal PKR conversions, aiding economic stabilization post-IMF programs.

Effects on inflation, purchasing power, and living standards

The depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against major currencies, particularly the US dollar, has exerted upward pressure on inflation through elevated costs of imported essentials such as petroleum products, edible oils, and machinery, which constitute a significant portion of Pakistan's import bill. Empirical analysis indicates a positive pass-through effect from exchange rate changes to consumer prices, with studies using time-series data from 2001 to 2018 confirming that rupee devaluation correlates with higher inflation rates, as imported inflation transmits to domestic CPI components like food and energy. For example, during the 2022-2023 economic crisis, the PKR depreciated by over 50% from approximately 170 to more than 280 per USD, coinciding with consumer price inflation surging to 29.2% in 2023, the highest in nearly a decade. This inflationary impact erodes the of the rupee, disproportionately affecting lower-income households reliant on imported or import-dependent goods, as fail to keep pace with increases. Historical from 2000 to 2023 shows periods of sharp PKR weakening, such as the 38.5% between 1982 and 1988 under managed float, leading to sustained erosion in domestic despite nominal gains. In recent years, average annual exceeded 10% for much of the and , with the PKR's indicating overvaluation corrections that amplified cost-of-living pressures, reducing the real value of remittances—which averaged $30 billion annually—and fixed incomes. Consequently, depreciation has contributed to declines in living standards, as evidenced by rising rates and constrained during high- episodes. data links elevated to increased multidimensional , with the headcount ratio climbing from 4.6% in 2018 to over 5% by 2023 amid currency volatility, as higher prices for staples like and fuel outstripped income growth. While theoretically supports competitiveness, Pakistan's import-heavy — with deficits averaging 5-7% of GDP—results in net contractionary effects in the short term, exacerbating and reducing access to healthcare and due to diminished real expenditures. By 2024-2025, moderated to around 7-10% following stabilization measures, yet cumulative losses in since 2000 have left per capita real stagnant relative to regional peers.

Controversies and Criticisms

Counterfeiting and illicit activities

Counterfeiting of the occurs primarily through domestic operations involving printing presses and distribution networks within , often linked to . In October 2025, authorities in arrested Behzad, a suspect involved in producing counterfeit and U.S. dollars, along with forged documents such as joining orders and letters, highlighting the integration of forgery with identity . Similarly, on October 23, 2025, District City Police in apprehended another individual in the Area for large-scale counterfeiting and fraud, seizing fake notes during an intelligence-based raid. Earlier operations, such as the arrest of Saeed with 54,000 counterfeit notes, demonstrate recurring seizures tied to local syndicates. These incidents reflect challenges in , as counterfeit PKR undermines monetary trust and facilitates petty , though large-scale state involvement remains unverified beyond domestic reports. The Pakistani rupee features prominently in illicit activities through informal value transfer systems like and , which enable unregulated cross-border remittances and evade formal banking oversight. Pakistan's Financial Monitoring Unit has identified networks as key facilitators of operations, where operators handle transfers in PKR equivalents to launder proceeds from goods like textiles and electronics. These systems, prevalent despite prohibitions under the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act of 1947, support by converting illicit funds into PKR cash or equivalents without traceable records. U.S. State Department assessments note that unlicensed operators in and neighboring regions transfer and launder proceeds from narcotics, human , and other crimes, often settling in local currencies like the PKR. Hawala's opacity also aids terrorist financing, with networks channeling funds to militant groups operating in and beyond. Investigations reveal hawala's role in post-2021 Afghanistan-related terror flows, where PKR-denominated settlements fund logistics and arms procurement amid weak regulatory controls. The highlights counterfeit currency's ties to terror financing globally, including in , where fake notes supplement hawala to inject untraceable funds into economies. 's parallel terror economy incorporates counterfeit cash alongside narcotics and , exacerbating vulnerabilities as per analyses of state-adjacent circuits. Dismantling these networks requires enhanced monitoring, but enforcement gaps persist due to entrenched cultural reliance on informal .

Policy failures and structural economic issues

Pakistan's has been undermined by chronic fiscal deficits averaging over 7% of GDP in recent years, driven by expansive public spending without commensurate revenue mobilization, leading to unsustainable accumulation and recurrent balance-of-payments pressures. In 2023, the deficit reached 7.7% of GDP, slightly down from 7.9% the prior year, yet still fueling external borrowing needs that strain foreign reserves and precipitate . This pattern reflects policy choices prioritizing short-term subsidies and over long-term fiscal discipline, as large deficits translate into ballooning interest payments—by 2022/23, comprising a significant portion of the —and heightened vulnerability to adjustments. A core structural weakness is Pakistan's persistently low tax-to-GDP ratio, hovering around 10-12% and among the lowest globally for comparable economies, resulting from a narrow tax base, widespread evasion, and exemptions for influential sectors such as and . This revenue shortfall, exacerbated by weak enforcement and a large , limits fiscal space and forces reliance on , external aid, and borrowing, all of which contribute to inflationary pressures and erosion. For context, collections represent only about 3.8% of GDP, far below developing country averages, underscoring systemic failures in broadening the tax net despite repeated IMF recommendations. External debt dynamics amplify these issues, with public debt surging to over 80% of GDP and reaching $124.3 billion by June , where rupee depreciation mechanically increases the domestic-currency burden of repayments. inaction on structural reforms—such as privatizing loss-making state-owned enterprises, rationalizing energy subsidies, and boosting export competitiveness—has perpetuated deficits and import reliance, as evidenced by post-2022 crises where floods and interacted with pre-existing imbalances to deepen rupee volatility. Pakistan's prolonged dependence on IMF programs, spanning nearly continuously since the late 1980s, highlights repeated reform slippages, including inadequate progress on , measures, and fiscal , which undermine and in the . Empirical analyses confirm that fiscal deficits, alongside and rising rates, directly drive public growth, creating a vicious cycle where currency weakness begets further fiscal strain without addressing root causes like low and of resources. Despite empirical data from pointing to these causal links, execution remains hampered by institutional weaknesses, perpetuating instability.

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