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Sahm rule

The Sahm rule is a recession indicator that signals the onset of an economic downturn when the three-month moving average of the U.S. national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its minimum during the preceding 12 months.^[1]^[2] Developed by economist Claudia Sahm during her tenure at the Federal Reserve Board, the rule leverages empirical patterns in unemployment data, which historically precede and accompany recessions due to weakening labor demand.^[3] Its simplicity and reliance on timely Bureau of Labor Statistics figures make it a favored real-time gauge among policymakers and analysts for prompting countercyclical responses, such as fiscal stimulus.^[4] Historically, the Sahm rule has coincided with every U.S. recession since 1970, demonstrating perfect retrospective accuracy without false positives until a 2024 trigger that did not align with an official National Bureau of Economic Research declaration amid sustained GDP expansion.^[5]^[6] This track record underscores its value as a statistical regularity capturing labor market deteriorations, though critics argue it may lag peak-to-trough dynamics or overlook modern influences like demographic shifts and policy interventions that decouple unemployment from output declines.^[7]^[8] Sahm herself has advocated using the rule to automate early recession responses, emphasizing causal links between rising joblessness and reduced consumer spending that amplify downturns.^[4] Despite its robustness in post-war data, ongoing debates highlight the need for complementary indicators to address potential breakdowns in traditional correlations.^[9]

Definition and Methodology

Core Indicator

The core indicator of the Sahm rule is the U3 unemployment rate, which measures the share of the civilian labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment, as reported monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This metric excludes discouraged workers and those marginally attached to the labor force, focusing on standard unemployment to capture broad labor market slack without broader underemployment distortions.^[1] Economists prioritize the U3 rate for its consistency in historical data series dating back to 1948, enabling reliable back-testing against National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession dates.^[10] The choice of unemployment as the core indicator stems from empirical patterns in U.S. business cycles, where recessions consistently feature sharp, sustained rises in joblessness driven by weakening aggregate demand and employer hiring freezes.^[11] Unlike leading indicators like stock prices or yields, which can whipsaw due to speculation, unemployment responds with a lag but signals entrenched downturns once elevated, reflecting causal chains from reduced consumer spending to payroll cuts.^[8] Claudia Sahm, the rule's originator, derived the threshold from analyzing post-1950 data, confirming that unemployment accelerations precede NBER recession calls by months without isolated spikes in expansions.^[11] To mitigate noise from single-month BLS revisions or seasonal adjustments, the rule smooths the U3 rate into a three-month moving average, calculated as the average of the current month and two prior months' seasonally adjusted figures.^[1] This average is then benchmarked against the lowest three-month average within the preceding twelve months, providing a dynamic low-point reference that adapts to recent labor market strength.^[2] The indicator's simplicity—requiring only publicly available BLS data updated around the first Friday of each month—facilitates real-time monitoring, though initial estimates may adjust with subsequent data revisions.^[1]

Calculation and Thresholds

The Sahm rule is computed using seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically the U3 measure, which represents the official unemployment rate comprising individuals actively seeking work.^[1] The core calculation involves deriving a three-month moving average of this rate for the current period and comparing it to the minimum three-month moving average observed over the preceding 12 months. This approach smooths out monthly volatility while capturing sustained rises in unemployment, which empirical data link to recessions defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).^[2] To apply the rule, first calculate the three-month moving average for month t as \frac{U_t + U_{t-1} + U_{t-2}}{3}, where U denotes the monthly unemployment rate. Next, identify the lowest such average from months t-12 to t-1. The rule triggers a recession signal if the current average exceeds this minimum by 0.5 percentage points or more: \frac{U_t + U_{t-1} + U_{t-2}}{3} \geq \min_{t-12 \leq i < t} \left( \frac{U_i + U_{i-1} + U_{i-2}}{3} \right) + 0.5.^[11] This 0.5-point threshold was selected based on historical analysis of post-World War II U.S. recessions, where it consistently activated at or near downturn onsets without frequent false alarms prior to the COVID-19 era. The threshold's fixed value of 0.5 percentage points reflects a balance between sensitivity to labor market weakening and avoidance of noise-driven signals, as smaller rises (e.g., 0.3 points) have occurred in expansions without NBER-declared recessions.^[12] Real-time implementations, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's SAHMREALTIME series, update this indicator monthly using preliminary BLS data, though revisions to unemployment figures can retroactively adjust signals.^[1] Proponents note the rule's simplicity enables rapid policy response, but critics argue the threshold may require contextual adjustment for structural shifts like demographic changes in labor force participation.^[7]

Historical Development

Claudia Sahm's Proposal

Claudia Sahm, then an economist at the Federal Reserve Board, proposed the use of a specific unemployment-based recession indicator as a trigger for automatic direct stimulus payments in a May 2019 policy paper published by the Hamilton Project.^[13] The indicator, later formalized as the Sahm rule, activates when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3 measure) rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest three-month average over the prior 12 months.^[13] This threshold was derived from empirical analysis of U.S. recessions since 1950, where such an increase has consistently coincided with the onset of economic downturns, providing a simple, data-driven signal independent of subjective judgments like those from the National Bureau of Economic Research.^[13] Under Sahm's framework, triggering the indicator would initiate lump-sum payments to individuals to bolster consumer spending and mitigate downturn severity without relying on discretionary legislative action, which often delays fiscal responses.^[13] Payments would be tiered: $500 annually for adults aged 18-64, $300 for children under 18, with supplements up to $1,000 for low-income adults and $600 for their children, funded through general revenues and phased out for higher earners.^[13] The proposal emphasized universality to ensure rapid disbursement via existing tax infrastructure, such as IRS records, arguing that targeted aid alone risks administrative lags and incomplete coverage during crises.^[13] Sahm's rationale centered on the limitations of existing automatic stabilizers, like unemployment insurance, which cover only about half of jobless workers and require claims processing that slows aid.^[13] By automating transfers upon the indicator's signal, the policy would act preemptively—often weeks before NBER recession declarations—drawing on historical evidence that prompt fiscal support reduces recession depth and duration, as seen in prior downturns where delayed responses amplified hardship.^[13] She positioned this as a complement to monetary policy, addressing fiscal policy's historical inertia amid political gridlock, while noting the rule's back-tested accuracy in avoiding false positives outside genuine recessions.^[14]

Context of Automatic Stabilizers

Automatic stabilizers refer to elements of fiscal policy that inherently adjust to economic fluctuations without requiring new legislation, such as progressive income taxation, which reduces tax revenues during downturns, and unemployment insurance benefits, which rise with job losses to support household spending.^[15] These mechanisms emerged prominently in the U.S. following the Great Depression and the expansion of the social safety net under the Social Security Act of 1935 and subsequent programs, providing countercyclical support by increasing government deficits precisely when private demand weakens.^[15] By the late 20th century, economists estimated that automatic stabilizers offset about 10-30% of GDP fluctuations in advanced economies, depending on the severity of the cycle, though their responsiveness can lag due to administrative delays in claims processing or income reporting.^[16] Claudia Sahm's development of the Sahm rule in 2019 built on this framework by proposing it as an objective, data-driven trigger to activate augmented automatic stabilizers, specifically direct cash payments to households, amid concerns over the delays in discretionary fiscal responses during the 2008-2009 recession and earlier downturns.^[17] In her chapter for the Hamilton Project's "Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy," published on May 16, 2019, Sahm argued that traditional stabilizers like unemployment benefits, while effective, often fail to deploy swiftly enough or broadly enough to prevent deep contractions, as evidenced by the 18-month lag between the start of the 2001 recession and significant stimulus enactment.^[18] The rule's threshold—a 0.5 percentage point rise in the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate relative to its minimum over the prior 12 months—serves as a "recession signal" that has historically aligned with National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession dates since 1950, enabling pre-specified payments (e.g., $400-600 per adult and child) to boost consumption immediately upon verification via monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics data.^[17] This approach addresses limitations in existing stabilizers, which Sahm noted are calibrated more for insurance against individual risks than aggregate demand shortfalls, potentially underperforming in severe recessions where unemployment surges rapidly beyond typical insured rates.^[18] By tying activation to the Sahm rule, the proposal aims to insulate policy from political gridlock, as seen in the 2011 debt ceiling debates that constrained stimulus during recovery, while minimizing false activations through the rule's empirical track record of no signals outside NBER-defined recessions post-1950.^[14] Sahm emphasized that such triggers complement rather than replace discretionary measures or core stabilizers, positioning them as a "first line of defense" to sustain economic well-being, with payments phasing out as the unemployment signal reverses to avoid pro-cyclical effects.^[18] Legislative efforts, including bills introduced in Congress around 2019-2020, incorporated the rule for this purpose, though enactment faced hurdles amid debates over fiscal sustainability and inflation risks.^[14]

Empirical Performance

Signals in Post-1950 Recessions

The Sahm rule has signaled every U.S. recession occurring after 1950, encompassing the 11 downturns dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) from 1953–1954 through 2020. In each instance, the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rose by at least 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month prior low, typically within the first three to four months of the recession's start. This timing precedes the NBER's retrospective announcements, which often require 6 to 18 months of data analysis across multiple indicators such as gross domestic product, employment, and industrial production.^[19] For the nine recessions from 1960 onward—including the 1960–1961, 1969–1970, 1973–1975, 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001, 2007–2009, and 2020 episodes—the rule triggered by the fourth month without exception. Earlier post-1950 recessions, such as those in 1953–1954 and 1957–1958, also met the threshold, though real-time data series from the Federal Reserve begin reliably in late 1959. The rule's unemployment focus captures labor market deteriorations that align with NBER criteria, where nonfarm payroll declines and rising joblessness are key factors.^[1] Empirical backtesting confirms the rule's consistency, with triggers occurring after sustained economic contractions evidenced by falling output and employment. For instance, during the 1973–1975 recession amid the oil crisis, the signal followed sharp unemployment increases from energy shocks and policy responses. Similarly, in the 2007–2009 Great Recession, the rise reflected housing market collapse and financial turmoil, with the indicator activating as payroll losses accelerated. No post-1950 recession evaded detection, underscoring the rule's sensitivity to broad cyclical weakness.^[19]^[20]

Instances of False Positives

The Sahm rule has triggered false positives on rare occasions since its inception, defined as instances where the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points or more above its 12-month low without a corresponding National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)-declared recession occurring contemporaneously or in the immediate aftermath.^[21] One such event took place in November 1976, when the indicator crossed the threshold amid a temporary uptick in unemployment following the 1973–1975 recession; however, economic output continued expanding, with real GDP growth averaging 5.3% annually from 1976 to 1979, and no recession materialized until January 1980.^[2] This episode highlighted the rule's sensitivity to short-term labor market fluctuations unaccompanied by broader contractionary pressures. Another documented false positive occurred in 2003, when the smoothed unemployment rate average reached the 0.5-point threshold in the spring, driven by factors including military mobilization for the Iraq War and sector-specific hiring slowdowns, yet NBER data confirmed no recession, with quarterly GDP growth remaining positive at an average of 2.5% for the year.^[21] Unemployment peaked at 6.3% in June 2003 before declining, underscoring the rule's potential vulnerability to transient shocks absent sustained economic weakness.^[8] Analyses of postwar data indicate these pre-2024 false alarms—primarily 1976 and 2003—represent the rule's limited error rate, with only two such signals since 1959 amid otherwise high specificity in identifying downturns.^[22] A borderline case arose in 1959, where the rule triggered shortly before the April 1960 recession onset, but some evaluations classify it as a false positive due to the six-month lag before contraction, during which GDP still grew by 1.8% in 1959; this near-miss illustrates the rule's real-time nature but also its occasional lead time exceeding typical recession confirmation lags.^[19] In these instances, the absence of recession reflected offsetting dynamics, such as fiscal stimuli or demographic shifts, that prevented unemployment rises from cascading into GDP declines, though the rule's simplicity precluded adjustments for such confounders.^[23] Overall, false positives have been infrequent, comprising fewer than 5% of postwar triggers, bolstering the indicator's reliability for policy applications despite these exceptions.^[8]

Recent Applications

2024 Trigger Event

The Sahm rule was triggered in August 2024, marking the first such signal since the 2020 COVID-19 recession, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' July employment report released on August 2. The national unemployment rate (U3) rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June, with the three-month moving average for May through July reaching approximately 4.13%, exceeding the rule's 0.50 percentage point threshold relative to the prior 12 months' minimum three-month average of 3.6%.^[1] ^[3] This increase reflected a net rise of 0.53 percentage points, the exact value at which the real-time indicator crossed into recession territory.^[24] Claudia Sahm, the economist who developed the rule, acknowledged the trigger publicly, stating it served as a call for fiscal and monetary policy responses to bolster household incomes and avert deeper labor market deterioration.^[25] However, she expressed reservations about interpreting it as conclusive evidence of a traditional recession, citing atypical post-pandemic dynamics including a surge in immigration that expanded the labor force and elevated unemployment without proportional job losses or broad economic contraction.^[26] ^[21] Sahm emphasized the rule's design as a heuristic for early intervention rather than a deterministic forecast, noting that other labor market metrics—such as continued job openings exceeding hires and steady wage growth—did not align with historical recession patterns.^[27] ^[28] The signal prompted immediate market turbulence, with recession odds from models like the New York Fed rising above 50% and stock indices declining in the following days, though subsequent data on consumer spending and GDP growth tempered fears.^[29] Policymakers, including Federal Reserve officials, referenced the trigger in discussions of potential rate cuts, viewing it as a cautionary indicator amid resilient nonfarm payroll gains of 114,000 in July despite downward revisions to prior months. The event underscored ongoing debates about the rule's sensitivity to structural shifts like demographic changes and immigration-driven labor supply expansions, which some analyses argued could produce false positives in non-cyclical environments.^[21]

2025 Data Revisions and Outcomes

In September 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released preliminary benchmark revisions to its Current Employment Statistics survey, adjusting nonfarm payroll employment downward by 911,000 jobs for the 12 months ending March 2025.^[30] These revisions, part of the annual process to align survey data with comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records, indicated that initial monthly estimates had overstated job gains by an average of about 76,000 per month during this period, with some months—like June 2024—showing net job losses after adjustment that were not apparent in preliminary figures.^[31]^[30] The revisions lent retrospective support to the Sahm rule's mid-2024 trigger, which had signaled potential recessionary conditions when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low.^[1] Critics had attributed the 2024 unemployment uptick primarily to non-cyclical factors, such as a surge in labor force participation from immigration, potentially rendering the signal a false positive; however, the downward adjustments to payrolls implied a weaker underlying labor market than real-time data suggested, aligning the observed unemployment dynamics more closely with cyclical softening rather than solely demographic shifts.^[30] Analysts like those at EndGame Macro contended that "the Sahm rule didn’t miss, the inputs did," emphasizing how flawed initial job counts had delayed recognition of the indicator's validity.^[30] Despite this validation of the 2024 signal's prescience, the broader economic outcomes in 2025 did not materialize into a declared recession. The real-time Sahm rule recession indicator fell to 0.13 percentage points by August 2025, well below the 0.5 threshold, reflecting stabilization in the unemployment rate around 4.1–4.2% without further acceleration.^[32]^[1] Gross domestic product growth remained positive, with no National Bureau of Economic Research announcement of a downturn, though the revisions heightened scrutiny of Federal Reserve forecasting models and contributed to expectations of monetary policy easing.^[33] Claudia Sahm, the rule's originator, had previously noted in 2023 that post-pandemic data distortions could affect its reliability but maintained in subsequent commentary that rapid unemployment rises warranted caution regardless of revisions.^[30]^[34] Institutions like Morgan Stanley interpreted the adjustments as evidence of an economy bottoming out rather than deepening contraction, underscoring the rule's role as an early warning rather than an infallible predictor.^[30]

Modifications and Alternatives

Symmetric and Two-Sided Variants

Economists Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez proposed a two-sided modification to the Sahm rule in August 2024, incorporating both rising unemployment and falling job vacancies to signal recessions symmetrically across labor market tightness and slack.^[35] This variant computes an indicator as the minimum of two components: the three-month moving average unemployment rate minus its minimum over the prior 12 months (mirroring the original Sahm rise), and the maximum three-month moving average vacancy rate over the prior 12 months minus the current three-month average (capturing vacancy declines).^[35] The resulting indicator balances signals from both sides of the labor market, reducing reliance on unemployment alone and mitigating asymmetries in the original rule's focus on expansions' lows.^[35] Thresholds for this two-sided rule are set at 0.3 percentage points to indicate a possible recession start and 0.8 percentage points to confirm an ongoing recession (for data from 1960 onward), with an adjusted 0.6 percentage point confirmation threshold for pre-1960 periods to account for historical data limitations like the 1937 recession.^[35] Unlike the unidirectional Sahm rule, which averages a 2.1-month delay in detecting post-1950 recessions, this variant triggers 0.8 months earlier on average while maintaining perfect accuracy—no false positives or negatives—from 1929 to 2022, extending reliable signaling beyond the original rule's post-1960 breakpoint where it generates false positives (e.g., 1959) or misses dynamics (e.g., 1934 peak exceeding 4 points without recession).^[35] The symmetric design leverages the minimum function to require corroboration from both unemployment increases and vacancy decreases, enhancing robustness against isolated shocks; for instance, it avoided pre-1960 errors by validating signals through dual metrics, achieving a 1.5-month average delay across the full 1929–2022 span.^[35] As of August 2024 data, the indicator stood at 0.54 percentage points, implying a 48% recession probability under post-1960 thresholds or 80% under pre-1960 scaling, with a potential start as early as March 2024—earlier than traditional Sahm triggers.^[35] This approach has been noted for broadening the rule's historical applicability without introducing errors, though it remains a research proposal rather than a standard policy tool.^[36]

Employment-to-Population Adjustments

Proponents of modifications to the Sahm rule argue that the unemployment rate can be distorted by fluctuations in labor force participation, such as surges from immigration or demographic shifts, which increase the denominator without reflecting weakened demand for labor.^[34]^[37] The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP), defined as the percentage of the working-age population (typically 16+) that is employed, offers a complementary metric less sensitive to these participation changes, as it compares employment directly to total population rather than the labor force.^[38]^[34] One proposed adjustment involves constructing a "corollary" rule mirroring the Sahm framework but applied to EPOP: a recession signal triggers if the three-month moving average of EPOP falls by a threshold amount—often calibrated around 1-2 percentage points—below its 12-month maximum, capturing sustained employment weakness relative to population growth.^[38] This approach aims to filter out supply-driven unemployment rises, as seen in historical episodes where EPOP declines aligned more closely with NBER-dated recessions than unemployment alone during periods of rapid labor supply expansion.^[38] In the 2024 episode, where the original Sahm rule triggered in July due to a 0.57 percentage point unemployment rise, EPOP for the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16+ declined only modestly by about 0.3 percentage points from its recent peak, remaining above pre-pandemic levels at around 60%.^[39] Claudia Sahm has highlighted that roughly half of the unemployment increase stemmed from new entrants (e.g., immigrants or re-entrants), inflating the rate without a proportional EPOP drop, suggesting the trigger overstated demand weakness. Alternative models, such as those adjusting unemployment for supply shocks via structural vector autoregressions, yield an "adjusted" Sahm statistic of 0.29 percentage points as of August 2024 data—below the 0.50 threshold—implying over 75% probability of no recession.^[37] These EPOP-based adjustments enhance causal attribution by isolating demand-side pressures, though they require careful population controls (e.g., focusing on prime-age 25-54 EPOP to minimize demographic noise) and have not yet achieved the original rule's perfect post-1950 track record due to fewer historical calibrations.^[34]^[41] Critics note that EPOP remains vulnerable to unmeasured migration undercounts or secular trends like aging, potentially introducing lags in signaling.^[37]

Insured Unemployment-Based Indicators

The insured unemployment rate measures the percentage of workers covered by state unemployment insurance programs who are receiving continued benefits, calculated as the number of continued claims divided by covered employment.^[42] This rate, reported weekly and seasonally adjusted by the U.S. Department of Labor, serves as an administrative gauge of ongoing joblessness among insured workers, typically those recently separated from full-time, covered employment.^[42] Unlike the broader household survey-based unemployment rate, the insured rate focuses on verifiable claims filed shortly after layoffs, providing a timelier signal of labor market stress with reduced susceptibility to survey nonresponse biases, such as the declining response rates in the Current Population Survey.^[21] A prominent recession indicator adapting the Sahm rule's structure to insured unemployment data is the Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style (SOS) indicator, developed by economists Adam Scavette and John O'Trakoun at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.^[21] The SOS signals a recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises by more than 0.2 percentage points relative to its lowest value over the preceding 52 weeks.^[43] This threshold was calibrated to align with historical recession onsets as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, drawing on weekly Department of Labor data starting from 1971.^[21] Empirically, the SOS indicator has identified all seven U.S. recessions since 1971 without generating false positives, averaging a 2.3-month lag from NBER-dated starts.^[21] In contrast to the original Sahm rule—which relies on the overall unemployment rate and produced false signals in 2003 and 2024—the SOS avoided erroneous triggers during those expansionary periods, when insured claims remained subdued despite rising overall unemployment influenced by labor force expansions.^[21] It has also signaled earlier in several cycles, such as five months ahead of the 1973 recession onset and contemporaneously with the 2001 downturn.^[21] The use of insured unemployment data in such indicators offers advantages in causal tracking of cyclical downturns, as claims reflect actual separations from stable jobs rather than voluntary labor market entries or discouraged workers re-entering surveys.^[21] For instance, during the 2023–2024 period of elevated immigration and participation shifts, the SOS approached but did not cross its threshold, correctly withholding a recession call amid sustained economic growth.^[21] As of the week ending October 11, 2025, the indicator stood at 0.085, well below the 0.2 trigger.^[43] This approach underscores a focus on insured layoffs as a purer proxy for demand-driven slack, though it may understate distress among uninsured or gig workers outside traditional coverage.^[21]

Criticisms and Limitations

Vulnerability to Immigration and Supply Shocks

The Sahm rule's dependence on the unemployment rate exposes it to distortions from labor supply fluctuations, particularly surges in immigration that expand the workforce without corresponding weakness in aggregate demand. In such scenarios, the influx of new entrants seeking employment can mechanically increase the measured unemployment rate as they temporarily enter the labor force, potentially triggering the rule's 0.5 percentage point threshold even amid robust job growth and economic expansion. This vulnerability was evident in 2024, when the rule signaled a recession as the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, but analyses attributed much of the increase to elevated immigration-driven labor force participation rather than layoffs or hiring slowdowns.^[44]^[45] Claudia Sahm, the rule's creator, has acknowledged that the supply side of the labor market represents its "Achilles' heel," as shifts like immigration can produce misleading signals by elevating unemployment independently of cyclical downturns. Economist Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management emphasized that the indicator was calibrated for demand-side contractions, not supply expansions from immigration, a view Sahm endorsed in discussions of the 2024 trigger. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed foreign-born workers' unemployment rate at 3.8% in 2024, compared to 2.7% for U.S.-born workers, underscoring how demographic inflows can suppress native wage pressures while inflating overall unemployment metrics.^[44]^[45]^[46] Supply shocks further compound these limitations by altering production capacities and labor dynamics in ways that decouple unemployment from traditional recessionary demand signals. The COVID-19 pandemic exemplified this, as initial shutdowns and subsequent reopenings disrupted labor supply through migration halts, retirements, and health-related withdrawals, leading to atypical unemployment paths that the rule's historical calibration—based on post-1950 demand-driven cycles—may overinterpret as weakening. Analyses adjusting for such labor supply shocks, using models like structural vector autoregressions, demonstrate that removing these effects prevents premature rule triggers, highlighting its sensitivity to non-cyclical factors. In stagflationary episodes driven by adverse supply shocks, such as 1970s oil crises, the rule activates via rising unemployment but cannot differentiate these from pure demand recessions, potentially misguiding policy toward demand stimulus over supply-side remedies.^[37]^[22]^[8]

Overreliance on Unemployment Rate Dynamics

The Sahm rule's core mechanism hinges on the smoothed dynamics of the unemployment rate—specifically, a 0.5 percentage point rise in its three-month moving average relative to the prior 12-month low—which critics contend fosters an overly narrow lens on labor market health. This approach presumes that unemployment trajectories reliably capture cyclical downturns, yet empirical assessments reveal it underperforms in forecasting recessions lacking a pronounced contractionary unemployment shock, as vector autoregression models demonstrate the rule's efficacy diminishes when non-unemployment factors dominate economic stress.^[8] Such reliance can amplify false alarms amid transient rate fluctuations, even after averaging, since the indicator disregards concurrent expansions in absolute employment or output that might offset rising joblessness ratios.^[7] Unemployment rate dynamics are inherently susceptible to compositional shifts within the labor force, including surges in participation from demographic inflows or policy-induced entries, which elevate the denominator without proportional job losses, thereby inflating perceived cyclical weakness. For example, post-pandemic reentrants and structural mismatches have periodically nudged rates upward independent of demand shortfalls, underscoring how the rule's threshold, calibrated to historical patterns, may misattribute non-cyclical variance to recessionary forces.^[28] This dynamic focus also lags integration of contemporaneous data like payroll growth or initial claims, which often precede unemployment inflection points, leading analysts to caution against interpreting triggers in isolation from multifaceted indicators.^[47] Proponents of diversified metrics argue that overemphasizing unemployment paths ignores episodes where output contractions occur sans sharp rate accelerations, as seen in supply-constrained slowdowns; econometric evaluations confirm the rule's predictive power wanes outside unemployment-centric scenarios, prompting calls for hybrid models incorporating velocity of hiring or wage pressures.^[8] Despite its simplicity yielding real-time utility—historically aligning with National Bureau of Economic Research recession dates in eight of nine U.S. cases since 1950—the exclusion of rate levels or broader dynamics risks conflating statistical artifacts with substantive economic reversals.^[6]

Reception and Policy Role

Adoption in Economic Forecasting

The Sahm rule has gained significant adoption among economists and forecasters as a real-time recession indicator, particularly for nowcasting the onset of economic downturns ahead of lagged GDP data. Formalized by economist Claudia Sahm, the rule's perfect track record in signaling every U.S. recession since 1970—without false positives—has led to its integration into professional monitoring tools.^[1]^[27] In October 2019, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis incorporated both historical and real-time versions of the Sahm rule into its FRED economic database, enabling monthly updates based on Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data and facilitating its use in forecasting workflows.^[48] Forecasters at regional Federal Reserve Banks routinely reference the Sahm rule in analyses of labor market stress and recession risks. For instance, the San Francisco Fed highlighted its application in tracking national unemployment rises in an August 2025 economic letter, while the Richmond Fed featured it in a podcast episode on recession detection methods as of April 2025.^[49]^[50] Private sector economists, such as those at TS Lombard, have noted its role in defining recession status, with managing director Dario Perkins observing in August 2024 that practitioners increasingly rely on it for timely assessments.^[27] This adoption stems from the rule's simplicity and empirical reliability, allowing integration with other indicators like yield curves in probabilistic forecasting models.^[51] Despite widespread use, econometric evaluations indicate the Sahm rule's limitations as a standalone forecasting device, performing less effectively in predicting recessions beyond immediate nowcasting due to its exclusive focus on unemployment dynamics, which can lag broader economic shifts.^[8] A 2024 study comparing it to alternative indicators via vector autoregression models found it misses non-unemployment-driven downturns, prompting forecasters to employ it alongside complementary metrics for robust predictions.^[8] Nonetheless, its heuristic value persists in macroeconomic practice, informing adjustments to growth outlooks when triggered, as seen in heightened scrutiny following the August 2024 signal.^[2]

Implications for Fiscal Policy Triggers

The Sahm rule offers a potential mechanism for automating fiscal policy responses to incipient recessions, as originally envisioned by its creator, Claudia Sahm, in her 2019 proposal for direct stimulus payments to individuals. Under this framework, activation of the rule—defined as the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rising by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest three-month average over the prior 12 months—would trigger lump-sum payments to eligible households, scaled inversely by income to prioritize lower-income groups most vulnerable to labor market downturns.^[52]^[53] For instance, payments could range from $500 for the lowest earners to $100 for higher brackets, with the intent of rapidly boosting consumer spending to mitigate demand shortfalls without awaiting congressional deliberation. This rule-based trigger addresses key deficiencies in discretionary fiscal policy, such as implementation lags that historically delay stimulus by months or years, as seen in responses to the 2001 and 2008 recessions. By tying activations to a timely, publicly verifiable unemployment metric released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the approach ensures responses occur at the recession's onset, potentially reducing its depth and duration through automatic stabilizers that function independently of political cycles.^[52] Sahm argued that such payments, funded via Treasury issuance, would enhance economic resilience while minimizing administrative burdens compared to means-tested programs.^[14] In practice, integrating the Sahm rule into fiscal legislation could institutionalize countercyclical support akin to existing stabilizers like unemployment insurance, but with broader reach via direct transfers. Proponents highlight its empirical track record since 1970, where triggers aligned with all U.S. recessions, offering a simple threshold for pre-legislated actions like enhanced tax credits or infrastructure outlays.^[3] However, the rule's activation in July 2024—when the three-month unemployment average reached 4.43%, 0.53 percentage points above the prior year's low—illustrates implications for premature triggering amid non-recessionary pressures like labor force expansion from immigration, potentially leading to fiscal expansions without corresponding output declines.^[3] This underscores the need for complementary safeguards, such as phase-outs based on subsequent GDP data, to balance responsiveness against fiscal risks like added debt during expansions.^[54]

References

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Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) - FRED
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage ...Notes · Real-time Sahm Rule... · GDP-Based Recession
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The Sahm Rule Trigger: Is the United States in a Recession?
Aug 26, 2024 · The Sahm rule is triggered when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low in the ...
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Aug 26, 2024 · The Sahm rule is based on the historical pattern in which a rise in unemployment above a specific threshold tends to be followed by a further ...
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[PDF] Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals - The Hamilton Project
Abstract. This chapter proposes a direct payment to individuals that would automatically be paid out early in a recession and then continue annually.
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Defining Recession | Congress.gov
Sep 30, 2024 · The Sahm rule was the only rule to identify all recessions once they started, but it also got triggered one time without a recession occurring.
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Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: What You Need to Know and Why It ...
Sep 4, 2024 · Historically, the Sahm Rule has demonstrated strong accuracy, aligning with every U.S. recession since 1970 and producing no false positives, ...
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The Sahm Rule as a Recession Indicator - Alpha Architect
Oct 11, 2024 · The Sahm rule states that the early stages of a recession are signaled when the three-month moving average of the US unemployment rate is half a percentage ...
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The Sahm rule is a poor predictor of future recessions. The VAR exercise suggests this is because of its focus on the unemployment rate, which misses non- ...Missing: accuracy | Show results with:accuracy
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[PDF] Recession indicators are flashing red, but ... - Duke People
Sahm skepticism. The Sahm Rule, devised by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, was triggered when July employment data came out on the first ...
[10]
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator | FRED | St. Louis Fed
The Sahm Rule identifies signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 ...Missing: core | Show results with:core
[11]
The Sahm rule: step by step - Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)
Dec 7, 2023 · So, the Sahm rule uses the 3-month average of the monthly unemployment rate, not the monthly rate. Calculate that average in each month and ...Missing: methodology | Show results with:methodology
[12]
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
Oct 8, 2024 · According to the Sahm Rule, when the three-month average unemployment rate rises more than a half percentage point from the minimum rate over 12 months, a ...Missing: exact | Show results with:exact
[13]
[PDF] Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals - The Hamilton Project
This chapter proposes establishing direct payments to individuals as an automatic stabilizer. The lump-sum annual payments would be made to individuals, ...
[14]
The Sahm rule: I created a monster
Dec 30, 2022 · I created the Sahm rule to send out stimulus checks automatically. The idea was to act fast to make the recession less severe and help families.
[15]
What are automatic stabilizers? - Brookings Institution
Jul 2, 2019 · Automatic stabilizers are mechanisms in government budgets that automatically increase spending or decrease taxes when the economy slows, ...Missing: context | Show results with:context
[16]
The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in Fighting Recessions | Econofact
Oct 13, 2020 · Economic-data based triggers such as the “Sahm Rule” would allow spending to rise and fall based on data not politics. Because automatic ...
[17]
Recession Ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy
May 16, 2019 · ... automatic stabilizers. Some stabilizers respond as underlying ... In the third chapter, Claudia Sahm suggests making an automatic direct payment ...
[18]
[PDF] Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy
A proposal by Claudia Sahm of the Federal Reserve would boost consumer spending during recessions by: • Creating a system of direct stimulus payments to ...
[19]
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - Current Market Valuation
The Sahm Rule is an economic indicator that signals the onset of a recession by tracking changes in the unemployment rate.Missing: definition | Show results with:definition
[20]
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) - FRED
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage ...Missing: proposal | Show results with:proposal
[21]
SOS! Signaling Recessions Earlier | Richmond Fed
On average, the Sahm rule signaled a recession 3.4 months after the official start month, while SOS was 2.3 months behind. There are only two instances when ...
[22]
Sahm-thing more on the Sahm rule
Jul 26, 2024 · It had only two false positives since 1959—when the rule hit 0.50 or more, but the economy was not a recession.
[23]
A better Sahm rule? Introducing the SOS recession indicator
The Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style (SOS) indicator uses the insured unemployment rate to correctly signal the past seven recessions since 1971.Missing: definition | Show results with:definition
[24]
The Sahm Rule: What is behind the recession indicator?
Sep 3, 2024 · The Sahm rule is based on the idea that a significant and sustained rise in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of an economic downturn.
[25]
Recession indicator: Sahm Rule flashes red, but creator says 'this ...
Aug 2, 2024 · The Sahm rule says a recession is under way when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate jumps more than half a percentage point in a year.Missing: date | Show results with:date
[26]
My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken - Bloomberg.com
The Sahm rule, which was triggered with Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report, joins a long list of economic tools skewed by the unusual disruptions of the ...
[27]
Recession: What is the Sahm Rule and why is everyone talking ...
Aug 5, 2024 · The time-tested indicator, which is widely recognized for its simplicity and ability to quickly reflect the onset of a recession, was named ...
[28]
How reliable is the Sahm rule as a recession indicator?
it was like an economic fire alarm was going off. And at 8:31 a.m., economists all over the ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[29]
The Sahm Rule: What It Is and What Investors Need to Know
Sep 27, 2024 · But for the 11 recessions between 1953 and 2020, the Sahm Rule triggered every time within eight months of the recession's onset. On 10 of ...
[30]
“Sahm Rule was right all along” as BLS revisions expose massive ...
Sep 10, 2025 · The Sahm Rule is a real-time measure that flags the start of a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises at least 0.5 ...
[31]
Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National ...
Sep 9, 2025 · The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with ...Missing: Sahm rule
[32]
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast
United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator was 0.13000 Percentage Points in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve.Missing: revisions | Show results with:revisions
[33]
Another US Jobs Markdown Sets Stage for Fed Cut, BLS Criticism
Sep 8, 2025 · Sahm Rule, Explained. Back Forward. Economics ... benchmark revisions to reduce payrolls growth by an average of about 60,000 a month.
[34]
Labor market conditions. - by Claudia Sahm
Sep 5, 2024 · The unemployment rate of 4.3% in July would not necessarily raise concerns since it is still historically low and close to, if not below, many ...
[35]
[2408.05856] Has the Recession Started? - arXiv
Aug 11, 2024 · We then propose a two-sided recession rule: When our indicator ... Sahm rule detects them 2.1 months after their start. The new rule ...
[36]
New Indicator Says There's a 40% Chance the US Is in a Recession
Aug 12, 2024 · Michaillat and Saez's measure uses a similar methodology, but it's two-sided, using unemployment and the vacancy rate for jobs. The measure uses ...
[37]
Sahm Rule and labour supply shocks - KBC Bank
Sep 11, 2024 · The adjusted Sahm Rule currently stands at 0.29 percentage points, remaining below the 0.50 percentage points level with a probability of more ...
[38]
A corollary to the Sahm rule - Capital Economics
Nov 6, 2023 · We propose a corollary to the Sahm rule, based on the employment-to-population ratio, which suggests the economy is not in imminent danger.
[39]
Five questions on US recession risks - Aberdeen Investments
Aug 22, 2024 · The Sahm Rule finds that a 0.5ppt increase in the unemployment rate ... The employment-to-population ratio is currently down 0.3ppts ...Missing: modifications | Show results with:modifications
[40]
Sahm's Rule and mini-recessions - TheMoneyIllusion
Nov 5, 2019 · Sahm's Rule and mini-recessions ... When you look at the unemployment rate or better yet, a prime-age 25-54 employment-to-population ...Missing: modifications | Show results with:modifications
[41]
Insured Unemployment Rate (IURSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.
[42]
Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style (SOS) Recession Indicator
The SOS indicator signals a recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises by more than 0.2 percentage points.
[43]
The Frustration of Claudia Sahm As Her Recession Indicator Triggers
Aug 9, 2024 · But Sahm believes the current signal is a false positive due to rising labor force participation. "Maybe you can't do early-stage recessions ...Missing: EPOP | Show results with:EPOP<|control11|><|separator|>
[44]
Unemployment rising due to immigration, not layoffs, economist
Aug 7, 2024 · “The Sahm Rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration,” Slok said. Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the rule, agreed ...
[45]
Claudia Sahm: Grow the economy? Not with these immigration ...
Jul 25, 2025 · The unemployment rate among U.S.-born workers was 2.7% in 2024, compared to 3.8% for foreign-born workers.
[46]
How the Sahm Rule is causing a recession - LinkedIn
Aug 19, 2024 · The Sahm Rule is sending a false signal. As a lagging indicator, the Sahm Rule flashes red four months into a recession, on average.
[47]
FRED Adds Sahm Rule Recession Indicators
Oct 2, 2019 · The Sahm Rule identifies signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) ...Missing: adoption | Show results with:adoption
[48]
Tracking Labor Market Stress - San Francisco Fed
Aug 18, 2025 · The Sahm rule suggests that, when the national unemployment rate rises 0.5% or more relative to the lowest 3-month average over the ...Missing: exact | Show results with:exact
[49]
A New Way of Detecting Recessions | Richmond Fed
Apr 16, 2025 · The Sahm rule is a recession indicator that relies on the monthly US unemployment rate to determine whether the nation has entered a recession.
[50]
Making Sense of Recession Probabilities | St. Louis Fed
May 27, 2025 · The Sahm rule has a shorter lag in its release; the rule's most recent value (released May 2) is for April 2025. The Smoothed U.S. Recession ...
[51]
[PDF] FISCAL POLICIES STABILIZE the AMERICAN ECONOMY
the most-familiar automatic stabilizers include unemployment insurance, ... This trigger is borrowed from a companion chapter written by Claudia Sahm (2019).
[52]
Direct stimulus payments to individuals - The Hamilton Project
Sahm's proposal would offer lump-sum annual payments to individuals when the three-month average national unemployment rate rises by at least ...Missing: stabilizers | Show results with:stabilizers
[53]
What Are Automatic Stabilizers and How Do They Affect the Federal ...
Feb 3, 2025 · Automatic stabilizers provide critical support during economic downturns because they respond almost immediately to changes in income and unemployment.