2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election
The 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election was conducted on 15 February 2017 across the state's 70 constituencies to elect members of the Vidhan Sabha, with results declared on 11 March revealing a landslide triumph for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which captured 57 seats and a vote share sufficient to form the government under Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat, sworn in on 18 March.[1][2] The incumbent Indian National Congress, led by Chief Minister Harish Rawat, suffered a severe reversal, retaining just 11 seats amid anti-incumbency sentiments.[1] Voter turnout stood at 64.8 percent, with approximately 4.92 million votes cast out of over 7.59 million electors.[3] This poll occurred against the backdrop of acute political instability in 2016, when internal rebellions within the Congress prompted nine legislators—including some from the BJP—to support a no-confidence motion against Rawat's administration, culminating in his failure during a mandated floor test and the subsequent imposition of President's rule on 27 March by the central government.[4][5] Judicial interventions, including orders from the Uttarakhand High Court and Supreme Court, briefly reinstated Rawat but failed to stabilize the government, paving the way for fresh elections that underscored the BJP's organizational resurgence and the Congress's vulnerabilities in the hill state.[6] The outcome reinforced the BJP's dominance in northern India following its 2014 national victory, marking a clear mandate shift driven by governance critiques and regional dynamics rather than entrenched ideological divides.[1]Historical and Political Background
Pre-Election Political Landscape
The Indian National Congress formed the government in Uttarakhand following the 2012 legislative assembly election, securing 32 seats in the 70-member house and relying on support from smaller parties and independents to maintain a slim majority. Harish Rawat took office as Chief Minister on 1 February 2014, replacing Vijay Bahuguna, whose tenure had been marred by criticism over the handling of relief efforts after the devastating 2013 Kedarnath floods. Rawat's administration initially focused on rehabilitation and infrastructure, but faced ongoing accusations from the opposition of inefficiency and favoritism in project allocations.[7][8] The Bharatiya Janata Party, with 31 seats from the 2012 poll, emerged as the primary opposition, capitalizing on anti-incumbency against the Congress's perceived mismanagement, including delays in flood recovery and controversies surrounding hydropower projects on sensitive riverine ecosystems. By late 2015 and early 2016, internal dissent within Congress intensified, with Rawat's leadership style described by observers as overly dominant, alienating key party figures and MLAs. This factionalism set the stage for the 2016 crisis, which exposed deep divisions and eroded public confidence in the incumbent regime's stability.[9][10] Post-reinstatement in May 2016 after a Supreme Court-ordered floor test, Rawat's government operated under a cloud of vulnerability, with the disqualification of nine rebel Congress MLAs under anti-defection laws reducing the assembly's effective strength and leaving the ruling coalition precarious. The BJP, unified under state leaders and bolstered by the national momentum from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2014 victory, positioned itself to exploit Congress's weaknesses, emphasizing themes of decisive governance and development to counter Uttarakhand's chronic political volatility, which had seen multiple chief ministerial changes since the state's formation in 2000. Regional outfits like the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal retained sway in Kumaon and Garhwal hills, potentially influencing close contests through vote fragmentation.[11][12][13]The 2016 Uttarakhand Political Crisis
The 2016 Uttarakhand political crisis stemmed from internal dissent within the Indian National Congress party, which held a fragile majority in the 70-member Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly. On March 18, 2016, nine Congress MLAs, including former Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna and Cabinet Minister Harak Singh Rawat, rebelled against incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat, aligning with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s 27 legislators to meet Governor K. K. Paul and demand Rawat's ouster.[14][15] This rebellion was fueled by longstanding factional rivalries and perceived neglect of dissenting leaders by Rawat after he assumed office in February 2014, exacerbating ambitions and power struggles within the state Congress unit.[16] The immediate trigger involved disputes over the state budget passage on March 19, 2016, which the rebels contested as improper via voice vote amid their walkout, prompting them to submit letters expressing loss of confidence in Rawat and calling for a floor test.[17] Governor Paul, assessing the situation, recommended President's Rule on March 27, 2016, after Assembly Speaker Govind Singh Kunjwal disqualified the nine rebels under anti-defection provisions, reducing Congress's effective strength and leading the central government to invoke Article 356 of the Constitution, dissolving the assembly. Rawat challenged this imposition in the Uttarakhand High Court, which on April 21, 2016, quashed President's Rule, reinstated Rawat, and mandated a floor test within a week to verify his majority claim.[18] The Supreme Court intervened on April 23, 2016, staying the High Court's order and upholding President's Rule temporarily to oversee a supervised floor test, emphasizing constitutional norms over gubernatorial discretion in majority disputes.[19] On May 10, 2016, under Supreme Court monitoring, Rawat secured a trust vote by 33-30 in the reduced assembly (excluding disqualified MLAs), proving his majority and leading to the lifting of President's Rule on May 11.[20] The crisis underscored vulnerabilities in coalition-like dynamics within Congress, with the rebels—disqualified but later joining BJP on May 18—highlighting defection risks that eroded public trust and set the stage for BJP's opposition strategy in the impending 2017 elections.[21] A subsequent CBI probe into an alleged sting video showing Rawat offering inducements to MLAs further tainted his administration, though it did not immediately alter the government's status.[22]Electoral Framework
Announcement and Schedule
The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the schedule for the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election on 4 January 2017, alongside polls for the assemblies of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur.[23][24] This announcement enforced the model code of conduct immediately across the state, prohibiting new development projects or financial grants without ECI approval to ensure a level playing field.[25] The election covered all 70 constituencies in a single phase, reflecting the state's compact geography and security assessments by the ECI.[24]| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Issue of notification | 20 January 2017[26] |
| Last date for filing nominations | 27 January 2017[26] |
| Scrutiny of nominations | 30 January 2017[26] |
| Last date for withdrawal of candidature | 1 February 2017[26] |
| Date of polling | 15 February 2017[27][26] |
| Date of counting and results | 11 March 2017[26][28] |
Electorate Composition and Voter Turnout
The electorate for the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election totaled 7,512,559 registered voters, according to pre-election data released by the Election Commission of India.[29] Males numbered 3,933,564, comprising 52.4% of the total, while females accounted for 3,578,995 or 47.6%, yielding a voter gender ratio of 910 females per 1,000 males.[29] This composition reflected Uttarakhand's demographic profile, dominated by rural and semi-urban populations across 70 constituencies, with a significant portion in the hilly Garhwal and Kumaon divisions where terrain and migration patterns influence voter accessibility. Polling occurred on February 15, 2017, in a single phase across all seats, with the final voter turnout recorded at 65.64% after revision by the Chief Electoral Officer.[30] Initial reports estimated turnout near 68%, but subsequent verification reduced the figure, highlighting discrepancies common in aggregating data from remote polling stations.[30] Female turnout exceeded male participation, at approximately 67.2% versus 62.6%, contributing to the overall rate and indicating stronger mobilization among women in several hill districts.[31] District-wise variations existed, with higher turnout in accessible plains areas compared to remote hills, though specific factors like weather and security arrangements ensured broad participation without major disruptions.Parties, Candidates, and Alliances
Bharatiya Janata Party Campaign
The Bharatiya Janata Party initiated its campaign for the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election with the release of its manifesto, termed Sankalp Patra, on February 5, 2017, by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Dehradun, emphasizing priorities in education, employment generation, and infrastructure development to address youth aspirations and economic challenges in the hill state.[32] The document pledged initiatives to curb rural-to-urban migration through local job creation and promised enhanced disaster preparedness, including the appointment of trained aapda mitra (disaster friends) in villages to mitigate frequent natural calamities like landslides and floods.[33] The campaign strategy leveraged anti-incumbency against the incumbent Congress government, exacerbated by the 2016 political crisis involving the imposition and subsequent lifting of President's Rule, positioning the BJP as a stable alternative focused on governance reforms.[34] A key tactical element included targeted outreach to the Dalit community, comprising approximately 18.8% of the electorate, via community engagement programs and promises of social justice aligned with national agendas, aiming to consolidate support in key constituencies.[35] High-profile rallies, including one addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Srinagar on February 12, 2017, amplified the campaign's momentum, with Modi's speeches highlighting national development models adaptable to Uttarakhand's unique topography and invoking anti-corruption themes against the Rawat administration.[36] The BJP refrained from projecting a chief ministerial face during the electioneering, instead selecting Trivendra Singh Rawat, a long-time party organizer close to national leadership, as leader post-victory on March 17, 2017, to maintain internal unity amid factional dynamics.[37]Indian National Congress Efforts
The Indian National Congress campaign in the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election was primarily led by incumbent Chief Minister Harish Rawat, who sought to leverage his personal popularity and the party's record in governance following the 2016 political crisis. Rawat positioned the Congress as the defender of state stability against alleged Bharatiya Janata Party attempts to undermine the elected government, emphasizing themes of self-respect and administrative continuity.[38] The party focused on youth outreach and development promises to counter anti-incumbency sentiments arising from migration and unemployment issues in the hill state.[39] On January 29, 2017, Rawat announced "Harish ke 9 sankalp," a set of nine pledges targeting young voters, including free smartphones with data connectivity for youth, laptops for meritorious students, and a monthly unemployment allowance of ₹2,500 for 36 months to jobless individuals aged 18-35.[40] Additional commitments encompassed establishing a dedicated ministry for ex-servicemen and enhancing disaster response mechanisms, such as appointing "aapda mitra" (disaster friends) in every village to address frequent natural calamities.[41] These initiatives aimed to address youth disillusionment and rural exodus, with Rawat framing them as firm resolutions rather than mere electoral rhetoric.[42] The formal Congress manifesto, released on February 5, 2017, expanded on these themes, pledging to halt and reverse migration from hilly regions by 2022 through infrastructure improvements, tourism promotion, and local employment generation.[43] It highlighted disaster management reforms, including better flood control and rehabilitation, drawing from the party's experience in handling 2013 Kedarnath floods. Rawat criticized the BJP's manifesto as a "compilation" of existing Congress schemes, accusing opponents of lacking original ideas.[44] The campaign involved extensive door-to-door canvassing and rallies by Rawat, who also contested from Haridwar Rural constituency for broader appeal.[45] To maintain party discipline amid defections, the Congress expelled 30 local leaders on February 18, 2017, for anti-party activities, particularly supporting BJP or independent candidates in key seats like Sahaspur.[46] Rawat urged voters to reject "deserters" who had switched to the BJP, portraying such shifts as opportunistic betrayals.[47] Despite these efforts, internal fissures from the prior year's rebellion weakened cohesion, contributing to the party's eventual loss of 36 seats compared to 2012.[48]Minor Parties and Independent Contenders
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a national party with a focus on scheduled castes and other marginalized groups, fielded candidates in over 50 constituencies but secured no seats in the 70-member assembly. Despite this, the party polled approximately 7% of the valid votes statewide, reflecting limited but notable support in certain pockets, particularly among Dalit voters disillusioned with the major parties.[49][50] The Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD), the state's primary regional party advocating for local governance reforms, resource allocation to hill districts, and protection of regional identity, contested around 20 seats across its factions but won none. Its vote share remained marginal at under 1%, underscoring the dominance of national parties in Uttarakhand's bipolar contest.[51][52] Other minor national and unrecognised parties, including the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, and various smaller outfits, collectively contested dozens of seats but registered zero victories, with their combined vote share absorbed largely into the major contenders. Independent candidates, often backed by local influences or as rebels from established parties, achieved greater relative success by winning two seats amid a 10% aggregate vote share, demonstrating pockets of voter preference for non-partisan or hyper-local representation over national platforms.[49][53]Campaign Dynamics and Issues
Key Policy Debates and Voter Concerns
Migration emerged as a predominant voter concern in the 2017 Uttarakhand election, driven by the depopulation of hill villages due to lack of local employment and infrastructure, with over 1,000 villages reported as "ghost villages" by 2017, up from 1,053 uninhabited per the 2011 census.[54][55] Youth from districts like Pauri Garhwal and Almora migrated en masse—88% of households in these areas had at least one migrant—seeking low-wage jobs in plains cities such as Dehradun or Mumbai, exacerbating rural decay and shifting political focus toward plains constituencies.[56][55] Both major parties addressed migration in their manifestos, with the Indian National Congress promising measures to reverse it through rural job creation and the Bharatiya Janata Party emphasizing education and employment generation to retain youth in hills.[57][32] However, debates centered on implementation feasibility, as small landholdings (averaging 0.68 hectares per household, below the national 1.16) and barren terrain limited agricultural viability, fueling demands for industrial and tourism-led growth without ecological harm.[55][33] Unemployment intertwined with migration as a core grievance, with voters in hill areas prioritizing local job opportunities over national issues like demonetization.[58] The BJP campaigned on skill development and infrastructure to combat it, while Congress highlighted governance failures under prior regimes, though both faced skepticism amid persistent out-migration rates.[32] Disaster management loomed large following the 2013 floods that killed over 5,000 and devastated Kedarnath, with voters criticizing slow rehabilitation and alleged fund misuse by the incumbent Congress government.[58][55] Parties debated proactive policies, including Congress and BJP pledges for village-level "aapda mitra" disaster response teams, alongside BJP calls for CBI probes into relief mismanagement, reflecting broader concerns over unsustainable hydropower projects (over 170 planned) and forest fires.[33][58] Corruption allegations, amplified by the 2016 political crisis involving rebel Congress MLAs and a sting video implicating Chief Minister Harish Rawat's administration in fund irregularities, fueled debates on mafia ties in liquor, mining, and timber sectors.[58] The BJP positioned itself as an anti-corruption alternative, contrasting with Congress defenses of its record amid instability.[58] Basic infrastructure deficits, including water scarcity—despite abundant rivers—and inadequate medical facilities, ranked high among voter priorities, particularly in remote hills where women fetched water over miles and healthcare access remained limited.[59][55] These concerns underscored uneven development favoring plains over hills, with parties pledging balanced growth but offering few specifics on irrigation or health expansion.[60] Overall, while personalities overshadowed policies, empirical voter sentiments prioritized tangible local fixes over ideological divides.[58]Strategies, Rallies, and Media Influence
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) employed a strategy centered on discrediting the incumbent Congress government's record, particularly highlighting alleged scams in polyhouse schemes, seed distribution, and flood relief funds during Vijay Bahuguna's tenure, while emphasizing a narrative of "change" following the 2016 political crisis.[61] The party leveraged national leadership under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, with Shah overseeing operations and central figures like J.P. Nadda coordinating efforts, deliberately sidelining veteran state leaders to project fresh governance tied to Modi's achievements such as surgical strikes, demonetization, and welfare schemes like Ujjwala Yojana.[61] A key tactical outreach targeted the Dalit community, comprising 18.8% of the electorate and influencing over 20 constituencies, through poaching leaders like Yashpal Arya from Congress (who joined with his son and were fielded as candidates) and organizing social welfare events across all 70 constituencies on Modi's birthday in September 2016.[35] In contrast, the Indian National Congress, hampered by internal divisions and the prior crisis, hired poll strategist Prashant Kishor to bolster its campaign, focusing on deflecting scam allegations onto the BJP and criticizing reduced central funding to the state.[61][62] The party relied heavily on Chief Minister Harish Rawat as its central figure, launching the "Swabhimaan Yatra" on January 25, 2017, to reclaim voter loyalty amid accusations of divisive forces undermining the state.[63] Rallies formed a cornerstone of mobilization, with the BJP deploying high-profile national leaders to amplify its message. Prime Minister Modi addressed four rallies: in Haridwar on February 10, Pithoragarh on February 11, and Srinagar and Rudrapur on February 12, 2017, framing the contest as a spiritual and developmental imperative aligned with Uttarakhand's ethos.[64][65] Amit Shah conducted public meetings in Ghansali and Ramnagar on February 7, 2017, urging a return to BJP rule for sustained development.[66][67] Congress countered with Rawat-led events, including a joint appearance with Rahul Gandhi for a Ganga Aarti and rally in Haridwar on February 13, 2017, in the campaign's final phase, alongside anticipated visits from Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to shore up support.[68] Media influence, particularly via social platforms, intensified the contest, with both parties vying for digital dominance amid emerging online engagement. Congress enhanced its IT cell operations from Dehradun, launching a Twitter series with #Dhol_ki_Pol posing 30 factual questions on BJP policies like excise duty hikes, though trailing BJP in followers (43,388 on Facebook vs. BJP's 136,623; 2,344 on Twitter vs. 6,936).[69] The BJP countered with trending hashtags such as #NautankibazzHarishRawat and #PappuInUttarakhand, utilizing cartoons and content across Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp to mock Congress leadership.[69][70] Traditional media coverage adhered to Election Commission guidelines under Section 126 of the Representation of the People Act, ensuring balanced reporting during the restricted period, though social media's unmonitored nature allowed partisan amplification.[71]Pre-Election Assessments
Opinion Polls and Predictions
Pre-election opinion polls indicated a decisive advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the incumbent Indian National Congress, driven by widespread anti-incumbency stemming from the 2016 government dismissal and President's Rule imposition. Surveys highlighted voter dissatisfaction with Chief Minister Harish Rawat's leadership amid allegations of corruption and administrative failures, alongside the BJP's appeal through national leadership under Narendra Modi and promises of stability.[72] The India Today-Axis My India survey, conducted from December 12 to 22, 2016, with a sample of 853 respondents, projected the BJP to secure 41-45 seats in the 70-member assembly, against 12-23 for Congress and 2-6 for others, with vote shares of 45% for BJP and 33% for Congress.[72] An earlier aggregation in the same series estimated BJP at 41-46 seats and Congress at 18-23.[73] A subsequent ABP News poll, released on February 8, 2017, forecasted BJP gains of 35-43 seats and Congress at 22-30, with BJP vote share at 40% and Congress at 33%; it also noted Rawat's edge as preferred chief ministerial candidate at 19% support versus 13% for BJP's B.C. Khanduri.[74]| Polling Agency | Fieldwork Date | BJP Seats | Congress Seats | BJP Vote Share | Congress Vote Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India Today-Axis My India | Dec 12-22, 2016 | 41-45 | 12-23 | 45% | 33% |
| ABP News | Early Feb 2017 | 35-43 | 22-30 | 40% | 33% |
Election Outcomes
Overall Results and Seat Distribution
The results of the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election were declared on 11 March 2017, following polling on 15 February 2017. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a decisive victory by winning 57 seats in the 70-member assembly, surpassing the majority mark of 36 seats required to form the government.[76][1] The Indian National Congress (INC), the incumbent party, was reduced to 11 seats.[76][1] The remaining two seats were secured by other parties and independents.[76] Voter turnout stood at 64.8%, with 4,922,923 valid votes cast out of 7,592,845 registered electors.[3]| Party | Seats Won |
|---|---|
| Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 57 |
| Indian National Congress (INC) | 11 |
| Others | 2 |
Constituency-Wise Breakdown
The Bharatiya Janata Party achieved a sweeping victory across Uttarakhand's 70 assembly constituencies in the 2017 election, securing 57 seats while the Indian National Congress retained only 11, and the Bahujan Samaj Party claimed the remaining 2.[1][78] This outcome reflected a broad rejection of the incumbent Congress government amid political instability, with BJP candidates prevailing in diverse terrains from urban centers like Dehradun to remote hill areas.[79] In the Garhwal region, encompassing approximately 42 constituencies, the BJP dominated by winning 34 of 41 contested seats, underscoring strong voter support in this hill-heavy area influenced by factors such as anti-incumbency and organizational strength.[80] The Kumaon region, with 28 seats, saw the BJP secure the majority as well, though Congress held onto several traditional pockets, particularly in areas with historical party loyalty and demographic advantages.[81] Notable among Congress's wins were constituencies in Kumaon and Haridwar districts, where local issues like development and community representation sustained their margins, while the BSP's successes occurred in reserved or minority-concentrated seats in the plains. The solitary postponement in Badrinath (Garhwal), due to a candidate's death, resulted in a BJP victory on 9 March, completing their tally without altering the overall pattern.[1] This constituency-wise distribution illustrated the BJP's ability to consolidate votes across regions, leading to margins often exceeding 10,000 votes in key races.[82]Vote Share Analysis and Electoral Margins
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) garnered approximately 46% of the valid votes cast in the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election, enabling it to secure 57 seats out of 70 despite the modest overall lead in popular support.[83] This outcome reflected the BJP's superior geographic concentration of votes in competitive constituencies, amplified by anti-incumbency sentiments against the incumbent Indian National Congress (INC) amid the state's political instability following the 2016 government crisis. In contrast, the INC, which polled a significant but fragmented share of votes—primarily in Garhwal and select Kumaon pockets—managed only 11 seats, underscoring inefficiencies in vote consolidation where opposition support split among minor parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which contested widely but won none.[84] Electoral margins revealed a highly contested poll in numerous assembly segments, with 29 seats decided by less than 10% of votes polled locally.[84] For the BJP, 17 of its 57 victories (about 30%) fell into this narrow band, including the tiniest margin of 148 votes (0.3%) in Lohaghat, where tactical voting and local dynamics proved decisive. The INC's 10 out of 11 wins (91%) were similarly tight, often under 10% margins, highlighting vulnerability to defection risks and the razor-thin nature of its retained strongholds. Larger margins, such as the BJP's 36,927-vote (38%) triumph in Hardwar, occurred in urban or Hindu-majority areas where national narratives on development and security resonated more uniformly. Overall, the distribution of margins indicated that while BJP candidates frequently crossed the 50% threshold per constituency (average winner share around 47%), many successes hinged on incremental edges over divided opponents, consistent with first-past-the-post mechanics favoring disciplined mobilization over broad pluralism.[84][3]| Party | Seats Won | Notable Margin Patterns |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 57 | 30% of wins <10% margin; highest margin 38% in Hardwar |
| INC | 11 | 91% of wins <10% margin |
| Others | 2 | All independents won by <10% margins |
Post-Election Developments
Government Formation Process
The results of the 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election were declared on March 11, 2017, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 57 out of 70 seats, securing a clear majority.[1] The incumbent Congress, led by Chief Minister Harish Rawat, was reduced to 11 seats, rendering post-poll alliances unnecessary for the BJP.[1] In accordance with constitutional conventions, Governor K. K. Paul invited the BJP, as the single largest party with a majority, to form the government.[85] The BJP's legislative party convened a meeting where Trivendra Singh Rawat, a former RSS pracharak and party organizer, was unanimously elected as the leader on March 17, 2017.[86] Rawat submitted letters of support from BJP legislators to the governor, staking claim to form the government.[86] On March 18, 2017, Rawat was sworn in as Chief Minister by Governor Paul in Dehradun, along with 10 cabinet ministers and one minister of state, marking the establishment of the BJP administration without legal challenges due to the decisive mandate.[2] This process concluded the transition from the Congress government, which had faced instability in the prior term.[1]