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Forgotten man

The Forgotten Man is a socio-political archetype denoting the ordinary, self-reliant producer in society who shoulders the unacknowledged burdens of reforms and interventions designed to aid others, as originally conceptualized by American economist and sociologist William Graham Sumner in his 1883 lecture.^[1]^[2] In Sumner's formulation, reformers (labeled "A") and beneficiaries (labeled "B"), such as the indigent or special interests, enact measures that extract resources from the Forgotten Man (labeled "C")—the diligent laborer who earns through productive work, pays taxes, and endures regulations without advocacy or acclaim—often yielding inefficient outcomes and moral hazards that undermine liberty and self-reliance.^[1]^[3] This perspective underscores causal chains where well-intentioned policies redistribute from the independent to the dependent, inadvertently penalizing virtue and fostering dependency.^[4] The concept achieved widespread recognition when repurposed by Franklin D. Roosevelt in his April 1932 radio address, where he depicted the Forgotten Man as the economically marginalized worker "at the bottom of the pyramid," neglected by preceding policies amid the Great Depression, and proposed direct relief and structural rebuilding to restore prosperity from grassroots levels upward.^[5]^[6] This adaptation inverted Sumner's emphasis on the taxpayer to spotlight the unemployed and underemployed, framing government expansion as redress for systemic oversight rather than a caution against overreach.^[5]^[7] Subsequent evolutions of the term, particularly in mid-20th-century critiques of New Deal expansions and later fiscal policies, reverted toward Sumner's original intent, highlighting how administrative programs burden productive citizens with costs exceeding visible benefits, often amplifying inefficiencies through unintended fiscal drags and regulatory compliance.^[3]^[8] Defining characteristics include the archetype's anonymity—no lobbying power or public sympathy—coupled with empirical patterns where such figures sustain social safety nets via deferred taxation and inflation, yet face policy designs prioritizing short-term aid over long-term incentives for production.^[1]^[3] The term's enduring resonance lies in its illumination of overlooked distributional effects in political economy, periodically invoked to critique interventions that privilege visible sufferers over invisible supporters.^[8]^[7]

Origins in 19th-Century Liberal Thought

William Graham Sumner's Coinage and Definition

William Graham Sumner, an American sociologist and classical liberal economist at Yale University, first coined the term "forgotten man" in his 1883 essay "The Forgotten Man," originally delivered as a public lecture.^[1] In this work, Sumner defined the forgotten man as "the simple, honest laborer, ready to earn his living by productive work," who supports himself independently without seeking favors or charity, yet remains overlooked by reformers and philanthropists.^[1] ^[3] He portrayed this figure as the backbone of society—the taxpayer and producer burdened by policies that redistribute resources without his consent.^[1] Sumner illustrated his concept through a recurring schema of social reform schemes: individuals A and B (often the energetic, benevolent, or elite reformers) observe X (the poor, weak, or dependent) in distress and devise measures, typically laws or taxes, to aid X, with the costs imposed on C, the forgotten man.^[1] ^[3] This C represents the self-reliant middle-class worker or producer who foots the bill via higher taxes, regulations, or economic distortions, while gaining no direct benefit and suffering unintended consequences such as reduced incentives for productivity.^[1] Sumner argued that such interventions, including protective tariffs and public pensions, exemplify "jobbery" that plunders the efficient to subsidize the inefficient, ultimately diminishing overall societal wealth.^[1] At its core, Sumner's formulation emphasized individual responsibility and the natural outcomes of voluntary cooperation over state coercion, warning that ignoring the forgotten man's contributions leads to parasitism and stagnation.^[3] Rooted in observations of the Gilded Age's rapid industrialization and widening inequalities—marked by events like the Long Depression of 1873–1879 and debates over tariffs averaging 40–50% on imports—Sumner drew on empirical patterns of productive versus non-productive classes, influenced by social Darwinist principles that favored laissez-faire competition as the mechanism for societal advancement.^[4] ^[1] He opposed socialism, militarism, and protectionism as violations of liberty that inverted causal incentives, forcing the capable to underwrite failure rather than allowing natural selection to reward effort.^[3] This perspective critiqued reformist zeal as sentimentalism detached from the realities of economic causation, where the forgotten man's overlooked role sustains all schemes.^[1]

Reinterpretation in 20th-Century Progressivism

Franklin D. Roosevelt's Adaptation During the Great Depression

In his radio address on April 7, 1932, from Albany, New York, Franklin D. Roosevelt repurposed the term "forgotten man" to describe the unemployed and impoverished individuals at the base of the economic pyramid, whom he argued had been overlooked by Republican policies under President Herbert Hoover.^[9] Roosevelt contrasted this with what he portrayed as favoritism toward wealthy organizers and financial elites, asserting that Hoover's approach aided "the great controlling practical resources of the Nation" while neglecting those suffering from economic hardship, thereby inverting William Graham Sumner's original conception of the forgotten man as the self-reliant taxpayer burdened by state interventions.^[9] ^[7] This rhetorical shift framed the forgotten man not as a producer resisting aid but as a victim necessitating expanded federal relief to restore economic balance. Roosevelt integrated this framing into his 1932 presidential campaign and subsequent New Deal initiatives, positioning government as the essential protector of the overlooked masses against market failures and prior inaction.^[5] Programs such as the Works Progress Administration (WPA), established in 1935, directly employed over 8.5 million workers on public projects by 1943, aiming to provide immediate jobs and infrastructure to the unemployed forgotten man. Similarly, the Social Security Act of 1935 introduced unemployment insurance and old-age pensions, targeting long-term security for those deemed neglected, with initial benefits rolling out to millions amid persistent joblessness exceeding 20% in the mid-1930s.^[10] These measures portrayed federal expansion as a corrective force, though critics at the time, including business leaders, contended they discouraged private investment by increasing uncertainty and regulatory burdens.^[11] Empirical data on New Deal impacts showed short-term relief in employment and relief rolls—WPA alone reduced unemployment marginally in participating sectors—but the broader Depression persisted, with real GDP growth averaging only 8% annually from 1933 to 1937 before contracting sharply.^[12] The recession of 1937-1938, during which industrial production fell 33% and unemployment rose from 14% to nearly 19%, coincided with fiscal tightening, including reduced federal spending from 10.2% to 7.8% of GDP and the Federal Reserve's decision to double reserve requirements, halting prior monetary easing.^[11] ^[13] While Roosevelt attributed the downturn to incomplete recovery efforts, economic analyses highlight how policy reversals—such as ending WPA expansions and sterilizing gold inflows—exacerbated contraction, underscoring the limits of interventionist strategies in achieving sustained revival absent wartime mobilization.^[14]

Evolution and Revival in Conservative Rhetoric

Post-World War II Critiques of the Welfare State

Conservative intellectuals and politicians in the 1950s and 1960s reclaimed the "forgotten man" from its progressive reinterpretation, applying it to the middle-class taxpayer strained by the fiscal expansion of federal welfare programs. Barry Goldwater, in his 1960 manifesto The Conscience of a Conservative, lambasted the welfare state for eroding self-reliance and imposing heavy tax loads on productive citizens to subsidize dependency, echoing William Graham Sumner's original emphasis on the overlooked burdens of indirect beneficiaries of government aid.^[15] This rhetoric gained traction amid postwar programs like Social Security expansions and the 1960s War on Poverty initiatives, which multiplied federal outlays from $4.5 billion in public assistance in 1950 to over $20 billion by 1970, disproportionately affecting wage earners through progressive taxation.^[16] Critics highlighted work disincentives inherent in benefit structures, where phase-out cliffs created effective marginal tax rates exceeding 100% in some cases, trapping recipients in poverty and swelling caseloads; for instance, Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) rolls surged from 3 million in 1960 to 11 million by 1975 despite overall economic growth, fostering multi-generational dependency cycles documented in longitudinal studies of urban families.^[17] ^[18] Fiscal pressures compounded this, as welfare spending contributed to federal deficits and state tax hikes, with total public welfare expenditures rising 800% in real terms from 1950 to 1975, diverting resources from private investment and infrastructure that could have aided self-sufficient workers.^[16] These arguments contrasted with prevailing academic narratives attributing welfare growth solely to demographic shifts, as empirical analyses revealed behavioral responses like reduced labor participation among eligible males, undermining claims of unalloyed poverty alleviation.^[19] Amity Shlaes revived the term in her 2007 book The Forgotten Man, contending that New Deal precursors to the modern welfare state prolonged economic malaise by distorting markets and stifling private recovery, with U.S. GDP per capita advancing at only 1.4% annually from 1933 to 1939—far below the 2.7% rate in the prior decade—and unemployment lingering above 14% until World War II mobilization.^[20] ^[21] Shlaes supported this with data on policy-induced uncertainty, such as National Recovery Administration codes raising wages 20-30% above market levels, which economists like Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian later quantified as delaying full recovery by seven years through resource misallocation.^[21] This causal chain—government interventions crowding out voluntary charity and enterprise—positioned the forgotten man as the entrepreneur and saver penalized by opportunity costs, challenging welfare advocates' focus on short-term relief over long-run incentives.^[20]

Usage in Late 20th and Early 21st-Century Politics

In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan invoked the "forgotten man" concept to critique excessive government intervention, echoing Franklin D. Roosevelt's phrasing while reframing it around the burdens of high taxes and regulations on producers and workers. In a March 30, 1981, address to the AFL-CIO Building and Construction Trades Department, Reagan referenced Roosevelt's "forgotten man at the bottom of the economic pyramid" to argue that supply-side policies would empower overlooked laborers by reducing fiscal and regulatory constraints that stifled economic activity.^[22] This usage aligned with Reagan's broader rhetoric portraying the "forgotten man" as the productive middle class neglected by welfare expansions and bureaucratic overreach, which conservatives contended diverted resources from job creators.^[23] The term gained renewed prominence in Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, where he positioned himself as the advocate for "forgotten men and women" sidelined by globalization, unfavorable trade deals, and immigration policies. In his July 21, 2016, Republican National Convention acceptance speech, Trump declared: "These are the forgotten men and women of our country. People who work hard but no longer have a voice" in reference to manufacturing workers displaced by deals like NAFTA.^[24] This resonated amid empirical evidence of industrial decline, with U.S. manufacturing employment falling from a peak of 19.6 million in June 1979 to 12.8 million by June 2019—a 35% drop—driven partly by offshoring and automation without sufficient retraining or wage supports.^[25] Similarly, middle-wage workers experienced flat or declining real wages through the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s (except briefly in the late 1990s), exacerbating grievances over elite-driven policies that prioritized global integration over domestic safeguards.^[26] While the phrase has appeared sporadically in left-leaning contexts to address marginalized minorities, its late 20th- and early 21st-century political deployment has tilted toward conservative populism, emphasizing causal factors like trade liberalization and regulatory capture over identity-based narratives. Conservatives, including Trump in his November 9, 2016, victory speech—"The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer"—framed these as elite betrayals of working-class interests, contrasting with progressive uses that often downplayed structural economic drivers in favor of redistributional remedies.^[27] This right-leaning revival highlighted the absence of safety nets amid globalization's disruptions, such as the sharp manufacturing job losses in the 2000s, without attributing them primarily to domestic policy failures alone.^[28]

Ideological Debates and Empirical Critiques

Disputes Over the True Identity of the Forgotten Man

William Graham Sumner coined the term "forgotten man" in an 1883 address, defining it as the industrious, self-supporting worker who bears the costs of social reforms intended to aid others, such as philanthropists (A) helping the improvident (B) at the expense of the overlooked taxpayer (C).^[8] This producer-centric view emphasized the forgotten man's role as the productive backbone of society, penalized by interventions that redistribute without consent.^[3] In contrast, Franklin D. Roosevelt repurposed the phrase in a 1932 radio address to denote the economically disadvantaged—unemployed workers and the impoverished—overlooked by prior policies and deserving of government aid through New Deal programs.^[9] This shift inverted Sumner's intent, framing the forgotten man as a beneficiary of state action rather than its victim, a reinterpretation critics like H.L. Mencken derided as conflating the diligent taxpayer (A) with the dependent "drone" (B).^[29] Conservatives have reclaimed Sumner's original framing, portraying the forgotten man as the middle-class taxpayer funding expansive welfare systems. For instance, households in the middle income quintile (roughly $50,000–$90,000 annually) shoulder a total tax burden averaging $24,451, including federal, state, and local levies that support over $1 trillion in annual means-tested welfare spending.^[30]^[31] This perspective, echoed in Amity Shlaes's 2007 analysis, argues that such burdens distort incentives without addressing root causes of dependency.^[32] Progressive counterarguments maintain the forgotten man as the vulnerable underclass requiring aid to overcome systemic barriers, yet this view faces critique for overlooking welfare's role in eroding self-reliance. Post-1960s expansions under programs like Aid to Families with Dependent Children saw welfare rolls surge 169% in the ensuing decade, correlating with elevated dependency rates where recipients remained on aid for prolonged periods, reducing labor force participation among able-bodied adults.^[33]^[34] Variants like those from Henry George, who advocated land value taxation to alleviate poverty without broad subsidies, align loosely with Sumner's emphasis on limiting interventions to natural economic processes, though George critiqued unearned privileges more than direct aid.^[35] These clashes persist, with Sumner's definition privileging empirical observation of productive burdens over redistributive ideals unsubstantiated by sustained self-sufficiency gains.

Causal Analysis of Government Interventions

Government interventions aimed at alleviating economic distress during the Great Depression, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, exacerbated unemployment by contracting international trade and prompting retaliatory measures from trading partners, which reduced U.S. exports by approximately 60% between 1929 and 1933.^[36] The National Recovery Administration (NRA), established under the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933, cartelized industries through codes that fixed prices and wages above market levels, distorting competition and hindering recovery; empirical models indicate this policy alone accounted for much of the elevated manufacturing labor costs and contributed to unemployment persisting at over 20% through 1938.^[37] Economists Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian estimated that New Deal cartelization policies prolonged the Depression by about seven years by preventing output and employment from returning to trend levels, as rapid productivity growth post-1933 was insufficient to offset policy-induced rigidities without private sector flexibility.^[38] In the mid-20th century, Great Society programs expanded welfare entitlements, creating "benefits cliffs" where incremental earnings triggered sharp losses in aid, effectively imposing marginal tax rates exceeding 100% and disincentivizing workforce entry or advancement for low-skilled workers.^[39] Empirical analyses of these structures reveal that such cliffs correlate with reduced labor supply, as recipients face net income declines from working more, contributing to stagnant male labor force participation rates that fell from 80% in 1965 to below 70% by the 1980s among prime-age men.^[40] Causal chains from these interventions prioritized short-term relief over long-term self-sufficiency, fostering dependency patterns evidenced by persistent poverty traps despite trillions in spending, with metrics like employment instability underscoring how aid phase-outs amplified work discouragement over narrative gains in coverage.^[41] Recent fiscal stimuli, such as those under the CARES Act of 2020, generated inflationary pressures by injecting liquidity into supply-constrained economies, with Federal Reserve models attributing up to 3 percentage points of 2021-2022 inflation to such expansions, disproportionately burdening low-wage workers who allocate over 50% of income to volatile goods like food and energy.^[42] This erosion of real wages—declining by 2-3% annually for bottom-quartile earners amid 7-9% headline inflation—offset nominal gains for the working class, as savers and fixed-income households absorbed the costs of monetary debasement without corresponding productivity boosts.^[43] Prioritizing aggregate demand stimulation over supply-side reforms thus prolonged recovery for the forgotten man, with labor force participation remaining depressed at 62-63% through 2023, highlighting how interventionist causal pathways favor elite beneficiaries while metrics of sustained employment reveal overlooked harms.^[44]

Intellectual and Cultural Legacy

Influence on Economic Theory and Policy Discourse

William Graham Sumner's concept of the "forgotten man"—the productive taxpayer burdened by state interventions intended to aid others—resonated in Austrian economic thought, underscoring the unseen costs of central planning. Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, key figures in the Austrian School, echoed this by critiquing government overreach for distorting incentives and ignoring dispersed individual knowledge, positioning the forgotten man as a casualty of planners' hubris. Hayek's 1945 essay "The Use of Knowledge in Society" highlighted the "knowledge problem," where centralized authorities fail to account for local circumstances, leading to resource misallocation that disproportionately harms self-reliant producers akin to Sumner's archetype. This framework reinforced debates on liberty versus statism, arguing that interventions erode the voluntary exchanges sustaining prosperity, with empirical historical cases like post-World War I hyperinflations illustrating how policy-induced distortions victimize the overlooked taxpayer. In policy discourse, the forgotten man motif informs critiques of proposals like universal basic income (UBI), which risk disincentivizing labor by decoupling aid from productivity, contrasting with evidence favoring work requirements to bolster employment and output. A 2024 National Bureau of Economic Research study of UBI pilots found recipients worked 2-5% fewer hours annually and exhibited reduced productivity metrics, attributing this to weakened work incentives absent conditional strings. Conversely, the 1996 U.S. welfare reform introducing time-limited benefits and work mandates under TANF increased labor force participation by 10-15% among single mothers within five years, with longitudinal data showing sustained earnings gains and lower dependency rates, supporting causal claims that tying aid to effort preserves the productive ethos Sumner defended. These findings align with supply-side emphases on marginal incentives, where high taxation or unconditional transfers burden the forgotten man, empirically outperforming Keynesian demand stimuli in fostering long-term growth—as seen in the 1980s U.S. tax cuts correlating with 3.5% annual GDP acceleration versus the 1970s stagflation under expansive fiscal policies. Sumner's legacy thus permeates supply-side economics, advocating reduced burdens on producers to unleash enterprise, critiqued against Keynesian models through metrics like productivity growth. Proponents trace this to classical liberal roots, with Arthur Laffer's curve illustrating how excessive rates suppress revenue and effort, mirroring Sumner's warning against "A and B" plundering "C." Empirical contrasts reveal supply-side reforms yielding higher investment returns; for instance, the 1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act preceded a 20% rise in real median incomes by 1989, while Keynesian-era expansions in the 1960s-1970s coincided with stagnant wages amid inflation, underscoring interventions' tendency to overlook the forgotten man's role in capital formation. This dialectic sustains policy realism, prioritizing verifiable incentive effects over aggregate spending illusions.

Representations in Literature and Media

William Graham Sumner's 1883 essay "The Forgotten Man," later collected in The Forgotten Man and Other Essays (1918), serves as the foundational literary representation of the concept, portraying the forgotten man as the "simple, honest laborer, ready to earn his living by productive work" who bears the costs of social reforms without recognition or benefit.^[45] Sumner's narrative emphasizes the unintended burdens on this self-supporting individual from interventions favoring X (the politically connected) and Y (the dependent), reinforcing themes of individual responsibility and skepticism toward state-sponsored uplift.^[46] Amity Shlaes' 2007 book The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression revives Sumner's archetype through biographical vignettes of entrepreneurs and taxpayers stifled by New Deal policies, such as the Schechter family of butchers who challenged federal overreach.^[47] Shlaes contrasts this with prevailing depictions of the era's victims, arguing that government interventions prolonged suffering for productive citizens rather than alleviating it for the truly needy.^[48] H.L. Mencken echoed Sumner's ideas in his critiques of democratic "uplift" schemes, identifying the forgotten man as the average, independent citizen victimized by elite-driven reforms that ignore self-reliant producers.^[49] In essays like those in Notes on Democracy (1926), Mencken satirized the "forgotten men who always suffer" under such programs, using acerbic individualism to challenge collectivist narratives prevalent in interwar literature.^[50] In visual media, Maynard Dixon's 1934 oil painting Forgotten Man depicts a destitute figure amid urban indifference, capturing Depression-era despair but aligning more closely with popular imagery of the unemployed recipient than Sumner's taxpayer archetype.^[51] Created as part of a series on overlooked individuals, the work evokes emotional sympathy for the visibly downtrodden, diverging empirically from analyses prioritizing fiscal burdens on working producers over visible poverty.^[52]

References

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