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Gompertz function

The Gompertz function, also known as the Gompertz curve, is a mathematical model describing sigmoid growth or decay processes that begin slowly, accelerate exponentially, and then asymptotically approach a maximum or minimum value.^[1] It is typically expressed in the form y(t) = a \exp\left(-b \exp(-c t)\right), where a > 0 represents the upper asymptote (carrying capacity), b > 0 is a parameter influencing the initial value and displacement along the time axis, and c > 0 governs the intrinsic growth rate; an equivalent integrated form derived from its differential equation is y(t) = y_0 \exp\left( \frac{r}{k} \left(1 - e^{-k t}\right) \right), with y_0 as the initial value, r as the initial growth rate, and k as the decay rate of growth.^[2]^[1] Named after British actuary Benjamin Gompertz, the function originated in his 1825 paper analyzing patterns of human mortality, where he proposed that the force of mortality increases geometrically with age according to \mu(x) = B c^x (with B > 0, c > 1, and x as age), providing a foundational law for actuarial science and demography. This mortality model implied a survival function that follows a double-exponential decay, which later inspired extensions to growth dynamics in the early 20th century, transforming it into a versatile tool for asymmetric S-shaped curves beyond pure exponential behavior.^[3] The Gompertz function has broad applications across biology and demography due to its ability to capture resource-limited growth and age-dependent risks. In biology, it models tumor progression, where cell proliferation slows as the tumor nears its maximum size limited by nutrient supply; it also fits empirical data for animal and plant development, including bird fledging, fish length, and microbial populations.^[2]^[1] In demography, it underpins the analysis of adult lifespan distributions and aging rates, quantifying how mortality accelerates exponentially after maturity while incorporating baseline hazards, and has been extended in the Gompertz-Makeham law to include age-independent factors for more accurate life table construction.^[4]^[1] Its flexibility has led to variants like the generalized Gompertz for improved fits in complex datasets, maintaining its status as a benchmark in growth modeling despite competition from logistic or Richards functions.^[1]

Historical Background

Origins in Mortality Modeling

In the early 19th century, actuarial science was emerging as a formal discipline amid the growth of life insurance and annuity markets in Britain, driven by the need for reliable mortality tables to assess risks and premiums.^[5] Benjamin Gompertz, a self-taught mathematician born in London in 1779 to a Jewish family, played a pivotal role in this development despite facing educational barriers due to religious discrimination, which prevented university attendance; instead, he studied works by Newton and Maclaurin independently and engaged with the Spitalfields Mathematical Society from age 18.^[6] By the 1820s, Gompertz had become a practicing actuary, appointed in 1824 as head clerk and actuary for the Alliance British and Foreign Life Assurance Company, where he applied mathematical rigor to refine life expectancy calculations for insurance purposes.^[6] Gompertz's seminal contribution came in 1825 with his paper "On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies," presented to the Royal Society on June 16 and published in Philosophical Transactions.^[7] Drawing on data from established actuarial tables such as those from Carlisle and Northampton, as well as the Equitable Society's experience, Gompertz sought to identify a mathematical law underlying human mortality patterns to improve the accuracy of survival probabilities for life contingencies.^[5] He assumed that the force of mortality—denoted as the instantaneous rate of death at age x—increases geometrically with age, reflecting a progressive weakening of the human constitution over time.^[7] This geometric progression led Gompertz to propose the exponential form for the mortality rate:

\mu(x) = B \cdot C^x

where B is a positive constant representing the initial mortality intensity, C (>1) is the base of the geometric increase, and x is age; equivalently, this can be expressed as \mu(x) = \alpha e^{\beta x} with \alpha = B and \beta = \ln C, yielding a linear increase in \log \mu(x) with age.^[7]^[5] Gompertz demonstrated that this function approximated mortality data across large portions of life tables, enabling more precise computations for annuity values and insurance premiums compared to earlier empirical methods.^[7] Gompertz's work extended his earlier 1820 paper on life contingencies, introducing a notation system that influenced subsequent actuarial practices and consultations, including his testimony to parliamentary committees on friendly societies in 1825 and 1827.^[6] However, contemporaries and Gompertz himself noted early limitations, particularly the model's poor fit at young ages, where it implied unrealistically low or diverging mortality rates that did not align with neonatal and childhood patterns influenced by accidents and diseases rather than senescence.^[5] This prompted later refinements, such as William Makeham's 1860 addition of a constant age-independent term to the mortality rate.^[5]

Adoption in Growth and Biology

Following its initial formulation for mortality modeling, the Gompertz function was rediscovered and adapted in the 1920s and early 1930s by biologists Raymond Pearl and Lowell J. Reed to describe population growth patterns, where they linked it to sigmoid curves capable of representing both human demographics and broader organic growth processes.^[3] Their work demonstrated the function's utility in fitting empirical data from U.S. population censuses, highlighting its flexibility in capturing decelerating growth toward an asymptote, distinct from the symmetric logistic curve they also promoted.^[3] A pivotal popularization occurred in 1965 through Anna K. Laird's application of the Gompertz function to tumor growth studies, where she emphasized its asymmetric sigmoid shape—characterized by slower initial growth accelerating to a peak rate before tapering—as particularly suitable for biological processes involving resource-limited expansion in living tissues.^[8] Laird's analysis of experimental data from various animal tumors showed the model's ability to extrapolate growth curves back to a single initiating cell, underscoring its relevance for asymmetric patterns not well-captured by symmetric alternatives like the logistic.^[8] In the 1960s and 1970s, the function saw expanded use in analyses of plant and animal growth, with early applications including Rees and Chapas's fitting of Gompertz curves to dry weight and leaf area data in oil palm seedlings under nursery conditions, revealing insights into net assimilation rates during ontogeny.^[9] For animals, it was integrated into studies of fish populations by Ricker in 1975, who applied it to describe length-at-age trajectories in species exhibiting prolonged juvenile phases, aiding in stock assessments and ecological projections.^[10] These efforts extended to broader ecological models, where the Gompertz form helped simulate density-dependent population dynamics and resource competition in natural systems during that era.^[10] The late 20th century's computational advances, including the development of nonlinear regression algorithms and accessible statistical software, greatly facilitated parameter estimation for the Gompertz function in biological datasets, enabling robust fitting to noisy empirical growth observations without relying on linear approximations.^[1] This shift, exemplified by iterative least-squares methods implemented in tools like SAS and early versions of R, allowed researchers to derive precise estimates of growth rates and asymptotes from complex longitudinal data, solidifying the model's adoption across biological subfields.^[1]

Mathematical Formulation

Functional Form

The Gompertz function is commonly expressed in the following general form for modeling growth processes:

y(t) = a \exp\left(-b \exp(-c t)\right)

where a > 0 denotes the upper asymptote, representing the carrying capacity or maximum attainable value; b > 0 is a scale parameter that determines the initial condition, as y(0) = a \exp(-b); and c > 0 governs the intrinsic growth rate, influencing the speed at which the function approaches the asymptote.^[11] This parameterization arises from the differential equation \frac{dy}{dt} = c y \ln\left(\frac{a}{y}\right), where the specific growth rate declines as the process nears saturation.^[11] An alternative parameterization emphasizes the initial growth dynamics and is given by

y(t) = y_0 \exp\left( \frac{r}{\alpha} \left(1 - \exp(-\alpha t)\right) \right),

where y_0 > 0 is the initial value; r > 0 is the intrinsic (initial) specific growth rate; and \alpha > 0 is the decay parameter controlling the exponential decline of the specific growth rate over time.^[11] This form highlights that the specific growth rate follows s(t) = r \exp(-\alpha t), integrating to the closed-form solution above, and relates to the prior parameterization via a = y_0 \exp(r / \alpha), b = r / \alpha, and c = \alpha. The time at inflection, where growth accelerates maximally, occurs at t_i = \frac{1}{\alpha} \ln\left(\frac{r}{\alpha}\right).^[11] While discrete versions exist for numerical simulations or time-series data, the continuous formulation is preferred for theoretical modeling due to its analytical tractability and alignment with underlying differential processes. For decay processes, the function can be adapted by negating the growth rate parameter c or reflecting time, yielding symmetric sigmoidal decline toward a lower asymptote.^[11]

Properties

The Gompertz function displays a characteristic sigmoid shape, initiating near zero for small values of time t, followed by an acceleration phase where growth increases rapidly, and then a deceleration phase with diminishing returns as it asymptotically approaches an upper limit. This asymmetrical S-shaped curve transitions from slow initial growth—resembling exponential behavior—to a peak growth rate, and finally to near-linear saturation before flattening.^[12] The function approaches a lower asymptote of 0 as t \to -\infty and an upper asymptote of a as t \to \infty, with the value at t = 0 being positive but typically small relative to a, depending on the parameters. It is strictly monotonic increasing for positive growth rate parameter c > 0, ensuring no oscillations or reversals in the growth trajectory.^[12] The inflection point occurs at time t_i = T_i, the parameter specifying the location of maximum curvature change, where the function value is y(t_i) = a / e \approx 0.3679 a and the absolute growth rate peaks. At this point, the curve shifts from convex (upward bending) to concave (downward bending), marking the transition from accelerating to decelerating growth.^[12] The first derivative, which quantifies the instantaneous growth rate, takes the form

y'(t) = y(t) \cdot c \cdot \exp\left(-c (t - T_i)\right),

revealing that the relative growth rate y'(t)/y(t) decays exponentially from an initial maximum, reflecting the model's inherent slowing over time. The second derivative y''(t) equals zero at t = T_i, is positive for t < T_i (indicating increasing concavity), and negative for t > T_i (indicating decreasing concavity), which analytically confirms the sigmoid's structural properties. The maximum growth rate at the inflection point is a c / e.^[12]

Derivation

The Gompertz function originates from assumptions about the dynamics of mortality rates in human populations. In his seminal 1825 paper, Benjamin Gompertz posited that the force of mortality, denoted as \mu(t), increases geometrically with age t, reflecting a progressive weakening of the body's resistance to destructive forces. Specifically, he assumed \mu(t) = \mu_0 e^{k t} for constants \mu_0 > 0 and k > 0, where the exponential form arises from the idea that the decrement in vitality occurs at a rate proportional to the remaining vitality, leading to a geometric progression in the intensity of mortality.^[13] To derive the survival function S(t), which represents the proportion surviving to age t, integrate the force of mortality: S(t) = \exp\left(-\int_0^t \mu(s) \, ds\right). Substituting the assumed form yields \int_0^t \mu(s) \, ds = \frac{\mu_0}{k} (e^{k t} - 1), so S(t) = \exp\left( -\frac{\mu_0}{k} (e^{k t} - 1) \right). This double-exponential structure, often rewritten as S(t) = g \exp\left( -B e^{c t} \right) with adjusted constants g = \exp(\mu_0 / k), B = \mu_0 / k, and c = k, encapsulates Gompertz's law and justifies the function's form through the interplay of exponentially opposing forces—vitality diminishing geometrically against constant destruction.^[13] In biological growth modeling, the Gompertz function is reinterpreted by assuming the relative growth rate decreases exponentially over time, capturing sigmoid patterns where growth accelerates initially and then asymptotically approaches a maximum. Let y(t) denote the population or size at time t; the assumption is \frac{1}{y} \frac{dy}{dt} = r e^{-c t} for positive constants r and c > 0, implying the growth rate slows as an exponential decay, analogous to diminishing returns in resource utilization.^[3] Solving this separable differential equation proceeds as follows: \frac{dy}{y} = r e^{-c t} \, dt. Integrating both sides gives \ln y = -\frac{r}{c} e^{-c t} + K for integration constant K. Exponentiating yields y(t) = e^K \exp\left( -\frac{r}{c} e^{-c t} \right), or in standard form y(t) = a \exp\left( -b e^{-c t} \right) where a = e^K and b = r/c. This derivation highlights the function's double-exponential nature as emerging from geometric progressions in growth-promoting and limiting factors, mirroring the mortality context but inverted for accumulation rather than depletion.^[3]

Applications

Mortality and Survival Analysis

The Gompertz-Makeham law refines the original Gompertz model by incorporating an age-independent component, expressing the age-specific death rate as \mu(x) = A + B c^x for ages x > 30, where A represents a constant background mortality (e.g., from accidents), B scales the age-dependent component, and c > 1 governs the exponential increase due to senescence.^[5] This formulation captures the observed exponential rise in human mortality rates across adulthood, with parameters typically fitted to empirical life tables; for instance, analysis of Swedish women's data from 1976–1980 yielded A = 5.202 \times 10^{-3}, B = 7.786 \times 10^{-6}, and c = e^{0.1116}, providing a strong fit for ages 30–80.^[14] The corresponding survival function derives from the cumulative hazard, given by S(t) = \exp\left(-\int_0^t \mu(s) \, ds\right), which for the Gompertz component simplifies to S(t) = \exp\left( -\frac{B}{\ln c} (c^t - 1) \right), enabling estimation of survival probabilities from fitted parameters.^[14] Parameters are commonly estimated via least squares or maximum likelihood on life table data, facilitating predictions of remaining lifespan and cohort survival curves in actuarial contexts.^[14] In reliability engineering, the Gompertz model describes failure rates of mechanical components during the wear-out phase, where the hazard rate h(t) increases exponentially over time, analogous to biological aging.^[15] For example, the distribution's increasing failure rate (IFR) property has been applied to datasets like warp breakage in yarn samples, outperforming baselines in goodness-of-fit metrics such as AIC.^[15] Historically, the Gompertz function revolutionized annuity pricing and life insurance by enabling precise life table construction and premium calculations based on exponential mortality trends, as demonstrated in early applications to Carlisle tables yielding premiums like £1 0s 4d annually for a £100 assurance at age 30.^[5] Fitting to U.S. life insurance data from 1948–1977 confirmed a 1% annual mortality improvement, reflected in declining B parameters and rising life expectancy at age 30 from 42.7 to 46.6 years.^[16] In modern demography, the model supports longevity projections by extrapolating fitted parameters to forecast trends, with recent analyses up to 2025 data highlighting continued deceleration in mortality rates at older ages across high-income populations.^[17]

Biological Growth Modeling

The Gompertz function has been widely applied to model tumor growth, capturing the characteristic phases of slow initial expansion, rapid proliferation, and eventual plateauing due to resource limitations. In this context, tumor volume V(t) at time t is often expressed as

V(t) = V_0 \exp\left(-\exp\left(-\frac{t - t_i}{\sigma}\right)\right),

where V_0 is the initial volume, t_i is the inflection time, and \sigma controls the growth rate. This formulation fits empirical data from rodent models, such as Laird's analysis of rat hepatomas, where the model accurately extrapolated growth curves back to a single cell origin and forward to asymptotic limits, demonstrating superior alignment with observed asymmetry compared to exponential models.^[8] In organismal growth, the Gompertz function excels at describing asymmetric S-shaped trajectories for traits like body weight, height, or length in animals and plants, contrasting with the symmetric inflection of logistic curves. For instance, it has been fitted to length-at-age data in fish species, such as Nile tilapia, revealing parameters that reflect sex-specific asymptotes and growth deceleration patterns more realistically than symmetric alternatives. Similarly, in bacterial cultures like Lactobacillus plantarum, the model delineates lag, exponential, and stationary phases, with its skewed profile better accommodating observed delays in microbial adaptation than the logistic function.^[18] For population dynamics, the Gompertz function models the accumulation of individuals in regional human or microbial populations, emphasizing asymmetric approaches to carrying capacity. Applications to Sri Lankan census data from 1871 to 2012 showed the model providing accurate forecasts of total population size, with parameters indicating a gradual slowdown in growth rates over time. In microbial contexts, such as yeast or bacterial colonies, parameters are typically estimated using nonlinear least squares methods to minimize residuals between observed counts and predicted values, enabling reliable projections of density-dependent saturation. Recent applications post-2020 have extended the Gompertz function to epidemic trajectories, particularly for COVID-19 cumulative case growth, where its asymmetric form outperforms the symmetric logistic model in capturing prolonged tails in outbreak data across regions like Europe and Latin America. For example, fits to daily confirmed cases in multiple countries demonstrated lower prediction errors and better alignment with empirical asymmetries, such as extended decline phases, compared to logistic alternatives.

Economic and Diffusion Processes

The Gompertz function has been widely applied in modeling technology diffusion, particularly for forecasting the market penetration of innovative products where adoption follows an asymmetric S-shaped curve, starting slowly, accelerating, and then tapering toward saturation. In this context, the cumulative number of adopters N(t) at time t is often expressed as

N(t) = K \left(1 - \exp\left(-b \exp(c t)\right)\right),

where K represents the market potential or carrying capacity, capturing the total possible adoption level. This formulation extends traditional diffusion models by accommodating slower initial uptake due to limited awareness or high costs, followed by rapid spread through word-of-mouth and network effects, as seen in the adoption of durable goods like televisions and fax machines in the late 20th century.^[19] For instance, analyses of color television diffusion in the United States during the 1970s demonstrated how price declines drive the parameters, leading to accurate predictions of market volume growth over decades.^[19] In economic growth modeling, the Gompertz function effectively describes S-shaped trajectories for regional GDP expansion and firm size in developing economies, where initial slow progress gives way to accelerated development before approaching maturity. Studies on digital mobile telephony diffusion across developing countries from 1980 to 2000 used the Gompertz model to quantify how infrastructure investments and policy reforms influence adoption rates, revealing higher saturation levels (up to 100% penetration) in regions with rapid imitation effects compared to developed markets.^[20] Similarly, projections for vehicle ownership growth worldwide from 1960 to 2030 employed a Gompertz variant to link income levels in emerging economies to saturation curves, estimating non-OECD vehicle ownership growing to around 169 vehicles per 1000 people by 2030, with over half of global vehicles owned by these countries under baseline scenarios.^[21] These applications highlight the model's utility in capturing asymmetric growth driven by external factors like urbanization and trade openness in low-income regions. In management and marketing science, the Gompertz function has been instrumental since the 1980s for forecasting sales growth and innovation spread, particularly for successive generations of high-technology products where substitution effects accelerate diffusion. Seminal work on dynamic sales behavior modeled the adoption of technologies like personal computers and semiconductors using Gompertz-based extensions of the Bass diffusion framework, enabling managers to predict peak sales timing and market share shifts across product generations.^[22] For example, applications to broadband internet uptake in the 2010s showed the model outperforming symmetric alternatives in fitting short-term data for new services, with forecasts adjusting for regional variations in uptake.^[23] More recently, fitting the Gompertz curve to global mobile user growth data up to 2025 has informed strategies for smartphone penetration, projecting saturation near 90% in mature markets while highlighting imitation-driven surges in emerging ones.^[24] The parameters in the Gompertz diffusion model carry specific economic interpretations: b serves as the innovation coefficient, reflecting the initial rate of adoption driven by external influences like marketing or technological breakthroughs, while c represents the imitation rate, capturing the acceleration from interpersonal communication and social learning. These parameters are estimated via nonlinear least squares fitting to time-series data, such as quarterly sales or subscriber counts, allowing for sensitivity analyses on how policy changes might alter diffusion speed.^[25] In practice, higher c values indicate stronger network effects, as observed in smartphone adoption curves where imitation rates exceeded 0.2 annually in high-connectivity regions by 2020.^[24]

Variants and Comparisons

Inverse Gompertz Function

The inverse Gompertz function inverts the standard shifted form of the Gompertz growth model, y(t) = a \exp\left( -\exp\left( -c (t - m)\right) \right), to solve for time t given an observed value y, where a > 0 is the upper asymptote, c > 0 is the growth rate, and m is the inflection time. This inversion is analytically tractable due to the model's structure. The explicit solution is

t = m - \frac{1}{c} \ln \left( \ln \frac{a}{y} \right),

valid strictly for $0 < y < a. This inverse inherits the forward model's monotonicity, being strictly increasing from t \to -\infty as y \to 0^+ to t \to +\infty as y \to a^-, with domain restrictions ensuring real-valued outputs within the model's range. It enables back-calculation of time or age from a given growth level y, such as estimating biological age from size or mortality indicators in demographic analyses.^[17] For cases where the analytical inverse is inapplicable (e.g., due to parameter constraints or extended variants), numerical inversion via methods like Newton-Raphson is employed, iteratively solving y - f(t) = 0 using the derivative f'(t) for convergence. This technique is integral to maximum likelihood parameter estimation in Gompertz fitting, where repeated inversions optimize model alignment with data.^[26] Overall, the inverse supports inverse problem-solving in Gompertz-based fitting, allowing efficient computation of latent times from observations without full forward simulations.

Relation to Logistic Growth

The logistic growth model, often used to describe population dynamics and other symmetric S-shaped processes, takes the form

y(t) = \frac{K}{1 + \exp(-r (t - t_0))}

where K represents the carrying capacity (upper asymptote), r is the intrinsic growth rate, and t_0 is the time at which the curve reaches its inflection point. This equation yields a symmetric sigmoid curve, with the maximum growth rate occurring at the inflection point, where y(t_0) = K/2. In comparison, the Gompertz function produces an asymmetric sigmoid, characterized by rapid early growth followed by a slower approach to the asymptote. The inflection point in the Gompertz model occurs at approximately 36.8% of the carrying capacity (specifically, K/e), rather than at 50% as in the logistic model, resulting in a curve that decelerates more gradually after the midpoint. This asymmetry arises because the Gompertz growth rate decays exponentially toward zero as the population nears the maximum, whereas the logistic model's growth rate decreases linearly with population size.^[27] Consequently, the Gompertz better captures scenarios with pronounced early exponential phases and extended saturation, such as certain biological processes, while the logistic suits more balanced acceleration and deceleration.^[28] Both models share analogous parameters: the carrying capacity K (sometimes denoted A in Gompertz formulations) limits maximum size, and the growth rate r (or k) governs the speed of increase near the origin. However, the Gompertz incorporates an additional asymmetry parameter, often \alpha in the form y(t) = K \exp(-\alpha \exp(-r t)), which modulates the initial conditions and the curve's skew, allowing greater flexibility for non-symmetric data. Selection between the Gompertz and logistic models depends on data characteristics; the Gompertz is favored for biological applications with prolonged saturation, such as tumor growth, where its asymmetry aligns with observed exponential decline in proliferation rates.^[27] In contrast, the logistic excels for symmetric processes like certain population expansions. Statistical tools, including the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), facilitate objective model choice by penalizing complexity while rewarding fit.^[29]

Extended Forms

The four-parameter generalization of the Gompertz function, introduced by Jolicoeur et al. (1992), adds flexibility to capture more complex growth dynamics, such as multi-phase patterns observed in biological systems like tumor or animal growth. Formulated as y(t) = \exp(\alpha + \beta t + \gamma \exp(\delta t)), this extension incorporates a linear term \beta t alongside the exponential decay component, allowing for an initial exponential growth phase followed by Gompertz-like deceleration, which better fits data with varying growth rates over time. The parameters \alpha, \beta, \gamma, and \delta control the initial value, linear growth rate, amplitude of the exponential term, and decay rate, respectively, enabling the model to describe flexible growth phases in applications like poultry weight gain or cell proliferation.^[30] This form has been widely adopted in agricultural and physiological modeling for its improved fit to empirical data compared to the three-parameter Gompertz. The Gomp-ex law extends the Gompertz framework by integrating exponential growth principles with Gompertzian decay, particularly suited for scenarios where population or tumor growth transitions from unconstrained exponential expansion to resource-limited phases. Expressed as y(t) = y_0 \exp\left( \int_0^t r(s) \, ds \right) where the intrinsic growth rate r(s) = r_0 \exp(\alpha s) (with \alpha < 0 for decay), this model combines early exponential proliferation with later Gompertz slowing, providing a mechanistic bridge between simple exponential and sigmoidal growth laws.^[31] Proposed for tumor dynamics, it assumes competition for resources only after a carrying capacity threshold, yielding a growth rate that linearly decreases with log-population size post-threshold, which has been validated in radiotherapy optimization studies. The Gomp-ex law's utility lies in its ability to model hybrid growth in ecological and oncological contexts without assuming immediate density dependence.^[32] The unified-Gompertz model further refines the function by reparametrizing it within a broader family of sigmoidal curves, facilitating comparisons across growth types while bridging to more general forms like the Richards curve. Given by y(t) = y_0 \exp\left( \frac{k}{b} (1 - \exp(-b t)) \right), it emphasizes interpretable parameters where k represents the maximum growth rate and b the decay rate, allowing seamless extension to asymmetric growth patterns.^[1] This formulation, part of the unified-Richards family, standardizes the growth rate metric across models, enhancing its application in comparative biology, such as amphibian metamorphosis or microbial kinetics.^[33] By adjusting parameters, it approximates the Richards curve when asymmetry increases, providing a versatile tool for modeling diverse sigmoidal processes.^[12] In the 2020s, stochastic extensions of the Gompertz function have emerged to incorporate uncertainty in epidemic modeling, addressing variability in transmission rates and interventions during outbreaks like COVID-19. These variants augment the deterministic form with noise terms, such as Gaussian white noise or time-inhomogeneous diffusion processes, yielding stochastic differential equations like dy(t) = y(t) [\alpha - \beta \ln y(t)] dt + \sigma y(t) dW(t), where W(t) is a Wiener process and \sigma quantifies environmental or behavioral stochasticity.^[34] Applied to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, these models simulate outbreak trajectories with probabilistic bounds, improving forecasts for policy decisions in uncertain settings. Such extensions highlight the Gompertz family's adaptability to real-world variability, with noise terms enabling quantification of epidemic risk and control efficacy.

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Least-squares fitting Gompertz curve - ScienceDirect.com
In this paper we consider the least-squares (LS) fitting problem for the Gompertz function (1) which is a solution of the so-called Gompertz growth rate model.
[28]
[PDF] The Gompertz distribution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of its ...
The Gompertz distribution is widely used to describe the distribution of adult deaths. Previous works concentrated on formulating approximate relationships ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[29]
The Model Muddle: In Search of Tumor Growth Laws - AACR Journals
The previous success in describing biologic growth is probably what motivated the application of the Gompertz equation to tumor growth, but Laird also gives ...
[30]
Gompertz growth - GraphPad Prism 10 Curve Fitting Guide
The defining feature of Gompertz growth is that the growth rate decays exponentially as the population approaches it maximum.
[31]
Modelling fish growth: Model selection, multi-model inference and ...
Other commonly used alternatives are the generalized VBGM (Pauly, 1979), the Gompertz growth model (Gompertz, 1825), the logistic model (Ricker, 1975), and the ...
[32]
Gompertz-Laird model prediction of optimum utilization of crude ...
Jan 1, 2010 · In the current study, the Gompertz-Laird estimates of instantaneous growth rate, time at inflection point, asymptotic BW, and FCR of the French ...
[33]
[PDF] Growth Characteristics of Pearl Gray Guinea Fowl as Predicted by ...
Gompertz-Laird Model. The Laird form of the Gom- pertz equation (Laird et al., 1965) was fit to the data. The following equation describes the Gompertz-Laird.Missing: formula | Show results with:formula
[34]
A generalization of Gompertz law compatible with the Gyllenberg ...
The above observations on the doubling time led Wheldon [32] to propose an important modification of (1) the so called Gomp-ex law: N ′ = N ( a - bLnC ) if 0 < ...
[35]
Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models ...
Experiment 4: empirical directed distances from the generalized Gompertz model (GGoM) to other models ... Gomp-ex law (proposed in [45]; see [36]) that for the ...
[36]
Species-specific model to predict amphibian metamorphosis - Nature
Oct 2, 2023 · Following Tjørve and Tjørve, the unified Gompertz equation was used: S(t)=U\mathrm{exp}\left(-\mathrm{exp}\left(-eG\left(t-I\right)\right)\ ...
[37]
The dynamics of novel corona virus disease via stochastic ... - Nature
Mar 7, 2023 · In this paper, a stochastic mathematical model has been investigated to study the transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus disease.
[38]
Richards and Gompertz stochastic growth models with time-varying ...
Aug 1, 2025 · Starting from the Richards and the Gompertz deterministic models with time-dependent carrying capacity, we construct some time-inhomogeneous ...
[39]
The Gompertz Growth of COVID-19 Outbreaks is Caused by Super ...
The Gompertz function was initially envisioned to describe growth in an environment with limited resources (1). Its most important feature is that the ...