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Jammu and Kashmir

Jammu and Kashmir is a of , formed on 31 October 2019 under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, which abolished the region's special autonomous status previously enshrined in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and separated as a distinct . The territory encompasses the Jammu and Kashmir divisions, spanning diverse topography from the fertile and to the rugged Jammu hills, with an administered area of approximately 42,241 square kilometers and a of 12,267,013 as recorded in the 2011 census. Geographically, it lies north of and , west of , and borders to the west and to the north and east, forming a strategic Himalayan marked by high-altitude passes and glacial rivers. Historically, the of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to the Dominion of on 26 October 1947, when executed the amid an invasion by Pashtun tribesmen supported by , prompting military intervention the following day and the first Indo-Pakistani war. The 1949 ceasefire established the , dividing the region with administering about 78,000 square kilometers as Azad Jammu and Kashmir and , while China seized —roughly 38,000 square kilometers—during the 1962 , though maintains sovereignty claims over the entirety of 222,236 square kilometers. The post-accession era has featured persistent territorial disputes, punctuated by wars in 1965 and 1999, and a Pakistan-fueled Islamist since 1989 that peaked in the 1990s but has since waned amid counterinsurgency efforts and reforms, including the 2019 reorganization that extended full constitutional rights, boosted investment, and facilitated recovery. This culminated in 2024 assembly elections—the first since 2014—with high leading to a National Conference-led government under , signaling stabilized local politics despite ongoing cross-border tensions.

Geography

Physical Features

The region encompassing Jammu and Kashmir exhibits diverse physiographic divisions, including the Jammu plains and foothills, the , and the plateau. The features outer plains adjacent to the Indo-Gangetic alluvial tract, rising into the Siwalik Hills (with elevations of 600–1,500 meters) and lesser Himalayan ranges that form a transitional zone of folded sedimentary rocks and dissected terrain. The Kashmir Valley constitutes a longitudinal alluvial basin, approximately 135 kilometers long and 40 kilometers wide, situated between the to the southwest and the Greater Himalayan Range ( sub-range) to the northeast. This synclinal depression, formed by tectonic folding during Himalayan , supports fertile soils deposited by ancient glacial and fluvial action. The , the longest segment of the lesser Himalayas in the area, stretches over 300 kilometers from the gorge to the upper , with peaks such as Tatakuti reaching 4,745 meters, creating a effect that influences regional patterns. The plateau, elevated at an average of over 3,000 meters and extending northward beyond the Greater , comprises a high-altitude cold desert with , glacial valleys, and the Ladakh and ranges; it transitions into the and features sparse vegetation due to arid conditions and in higher zones. Major rivers of the Indus basin dominate the hydrology, with the originating at Spring (elevation 1,800 meters) in the Pir Panjal foothills, meandering 725 kilometers through the and (area 189 square kilometers) before piercing the range at . The Chenab, rising from in the Jammu , flows 960 kilometers westward through rugged gorges in the Jammu hills, contributing to the region's sediment load and seasonal flooding dynamics. These waterways, fed by glacial melt and rains, carve deep valleys and sustain alluvial deposits critical to the valley's agriculture. The western boundary aligns with the Line of Control amid varied terrain of rivers, valleys, and siwalik spurs, while the northern and eastern frontiers traverse the and Himalayan ranges, where elevations exceeding 5,000 meters and glacial features like the (length 76 kilometers) form extensive natural barriers of ice, rock, and .

Climate and Natural Resources

The climate of Jammu and Kashmir varies significantly across its regions due to elevational differences and topographic influences, resulting in subtropical conditions in the Jammu plains, temperate patterns in the , and cold arid conditions in . In the , winters from December to March feature sub-zero s often dropping to -15°C, accompanied by heavy fall that accumulates in higher elevations, while summers from June to August see maximum temperatures around 32°C with moderate . is generally low, averaging under 1000 mm annually in most areas, predominantly as snow in winter, with diurnal temperature variations exceeding 20°C in valleys due to clear skies and low humidity. Higher altitudes, including parts of , experience arid conditions with minimal rainfall below 100 mm per year and persistent cold, where temperatures can fall to -18°C in winter. Natural resources in the region include substantial forest cover, estimated at over 20% of the area, dominated by coniferous species such as deodar cedar and , which support timber production. Mineral deposits, primarily in the Jammu region, encompass , , , and , though extraction remains limited by infrastructure constraints. The territory holds significant potential, derived from perennial rivers like the and Chenab, fed by glacial melt and inflows, with an estimated capacity exceeding 20,000 MW, though much remains untapped. Agricultural lands in the yield specialized crops, including from Pampore fields, which produce around 5-7 tons annually under temperate conditions, and apples from orchards covering over 150,000 hectares, thriving in the valley's . Environmental challenges include , which has reduced forest cover by approximately 10-15% over recent decades due to and land conversion, exacerbating and altering local . Glacial retreat, driven by rising temperatures averaging 0.1-0.2°C per decade in the , has led to the shrinkage of over 1,000 glaciers in the region, increasing downstream water variability and loads in rivers. Flood risks are heightened by these factors, as evidenced by the September 2014 deluge, triggered by 5-7 days of continuous heavy rainfall exceeding 300 mm in the catchment, which inundated over 80% of the and caused widespread outbursts. This event, the most severe in 60 years, highlighted vulnerabilities from reduced buffering and upstream , resulting in altered riverine dynamics and heightened rates.

History

Ancient and Medieval Periods

Archaeological evidence from the Burzahom site in the indicates settlements dating to approximately 3000 BCE, featuring pit dwellings, polished stone tools, and early agriculture, marking one of the region's earliest known human habitations. This period reflects indigenous development of sedentary communities, with artifacts suggesting continuity into later prehistoric phases without direct ties to contemporaneous Indus Valley cultures farther south. During the Mauryan Empire in the 3rd century BCE, Emperor promoted , constructing stupas and viharas as part of his broader edicts to disseminate the faith following his conversion around 260 BCE. These structures, referenced in later historical chronicles like the , underscore early imperial integration of the region into northern Indian Buddhist networks, though direct archaeological confirmation remains limited. The , under Emperor (r. circa 127–150 CE), further elevated Buddhism's role in , convening the Fourth Buddhist Council there to systematize doctrines and patronizing monastic centers. This era saw artistic and architectural advancements blending Greco-Buddhist styles, evidenced by coinage and relics, positioning as a conduit for Buddhist transmission between and . From the 7th to 9th centuries CE, the governed Kashmir, with King (r. 724–760 CE) expanding territorial influence through military campaigns against regional powers, fostering a period of economic prosperity and cultural synthesis. Architectural legacies include the , constructed under Lalitaditya in the 8th century CE, dedicated to the solar deity and exemplifying Kashmiri with its hypostyle design and courtyard layout. Subsequent dynasties like the Utpala and Lohara maintained Hindu-Buddhist traditions until political instability in the early facilitated the rise of the , founded by in 1339 CE after the overthrow of the last Hindu queen, . This marked the onset of Muslim sultanate rule, incorporating administrative influences while retaining elements of local Kashmiri customs, as seen in the blending of Islamic governance with valley-specific land systems. Early Shah Mir sultans, such as Shamsuddin (r. 1339–1342 CE), consolidated power amid Mongol threats, establishing a dynasty that endured until 1561 CE.

Dogra Dynasty and Princely State

The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was founded by , a chieftain from the clan who had risen to prominence as a under of the . Appointed Raja of around 1820, expanded his territory through conquests, including the annexation of between 1834 and 1842 following campaigns against local Tibetan-influenced rulers. The decisive establishment of the unified state occurred after the (1845–1846), when the British , victorious over the Sikhs, sold the to via the Treaty of signed on March 16, 1846. Under the treaty's terms, paid 7.5 million Nanakshahi rupees (equivalent to 75 rupees) for sovereignty over the valley and its dependencies, formally recognizing him as of Jammu and Kashmir while requiring loyalty to the British Crown. Gulab Singh's rule (1846–1857) focused on consolidating administrative control over the disparate regions of (Hindu-majority hill territories), the (fertile but previously exploited under Afghan and Sikh governors), and (high-altitude Buddhist enclaves), introducing a centralized revenue system amid ongoing border skirmishes with forces. His son, Ranbir Singh (r. 1857–1885), pursued reforms to stabilize governance and economy, promulgating the in the 1860s, which drew from Hindu legal traditions like the Mitakshara but incorporated Islamic principles such as elements for personal laws affecting the Muslim population, aiming to balance the state's . Ranbir Singh also advanced infrastructure, including early irrigation works like extensions to local kuls (community channels) and state-sponsored canals in Jammu's agrarian belts, which boosted rice and maize yields in areas previously limited by inconsistent ; these efforts supported over 75% of the population reliant on , though yields remained modest due to feudal land tenures. The state's demographics reflected stark regional diversity, with the Kashmir Valley holding a Muslim majority exceeding 90% by the early , Jammu province featuring a Hindu plurality alongside substantial Muslim communities (overall state Muslims at 77.1% in per census data), and dominated by Buddhists at around 47% of its population. This composition—totaling roughly 4 million residents by —fostered administrative challenges under Hindu rulers, as Muslim peasants in faced begar (forced labor) impositions and high land revenue demands averaging 30–50% of produce, sparking localized unrest and petitions for relief documented in resident reports from the onward. While Ranbir Singh's codes and relief measures in the mitigated some grievances by standardizing taxation and prohibiting arbitrary begar in core areas, underlying frictions persisted, with favoritism toward Hindu officials in administration exacerbating perceptions of bias among the Muslim majority.

Partition, Accession, and Early Conflicts

In the aftermath of the partition of British India on August 15, 1947, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, ruled by Maharaja Hari Singh, initially sought to remain independent through a standstill agreement with Pakistan while delaying a decision on accession to either dominion. However, on October 22, 1947, Pakistani military officers orchestrated an invasion by Pashtun tribal militias under Operation Gulmarg, advancing toward Srinagar with support from regular Pakistani forces, resulting in widespread atrocities including the killing of an estimated 20,000 to 35,000 civilians, primarily Hindus and Sikhs, in areas like Baramulla and Muzaffarabad. Facing the collapse of his forces and the tribal lashkars' rapid advance to within miles of , Maharaja signed the to on October 26, 1947, formally integrating the state into the Indian Union and requesting military assistance; the document ceded control over defense, external affairs, and communications to while preserving internal autonomy. Indian troops airlifted to on October 27, 1947, halted the invasion, sparking the First Indo-Pakistani War, which saw Indian forces reclaim much of the and while Pakistani regulars and tribesmen occupied roughly one-third of the state, including and much of Azad Kashmir. The war concluded with a UN-mediated ceasefire on January 1, 1949, establishing the Ceasefire Line (later renamed the in 1972), which divided the state with controlling about two-thirds, including the Valley, , and . The Commission for and (UNCIP) resolutions of August 13, 1948, and subsequent Security Council actions, including Resolution 91 of March 30, 1951, outlined a phased demilitarization process requiring to first withdraw its tribesmen and nationals, followed by 's reduction of forces to a minimum before a plebiscite under UN ; however, 's failure to fully withdraw impeded implementation. Tensions escalated in the Second , triggered by Pakistan's , which infiltrated some 30,000 commandos into Indian-administered Kashmir to incite an uprising; the operation failed, leading to open conflict from August to September 1965, with major battles in the Chhamb sector and Haji Pir Pass, where Indian forces captured strategic heights before a UN-mandated on September 23 restored the pre-war ante, though India retained tactical gains like the Haji Pir Pass until partially returned under the Tashkent Agreement of January 1966. The Third Indo-Pakistani War of December 1971, primarily over East Pakistan's secession, saw limited but significant fighting along the Kashmir , where Indian forces advanced into territories like Chhamb and , capturing over 5,000 square kilometers; Pakistan's surrender in the east on December 16, 1971, led to the of July 2, 1972, in which both nations agreed to resolve disputes bilaterally without third-party involvement, formalized the as the de facto boundary pending final settlement, and committed to non-interference, with India repatriating over 90,000 Pakistani POWs and most captured territory except minor adjustments for defensive lines.

Insurgency Era (1989–2019)

The erupted in the late 1980s, triggered primarily by the alleged widespread rigging of the November state legislative assembly elections, in which the National Conference-Congress alliance secured a sweeping victory amid reports of ballot stuffing, voter intimidation, and the declaration of defeated candidates as winners. This eroded trust in India's democratic institutions among segments of the Kashmiri Muslim population, particularly youth who had mobilized under the Muslim , prompting many to abandon electoral politics for armed . Militant groups proliferated rapidly after 1988, with the (JKLF) leading initial operations through high-profile actions like the 1989 kidnapping of foreign tourists and Rubaiya Sayeed, daughter of India's home minister. The JKLF initially , drawing local recruits disillusioned by failures. By 1989, emerged as a rival Islamist outfit, advocating merger with and quickly surpassing JKLF in recruitment and attacks through enforced ideologies and external ideological support. These groups sustained operations via arms smuggling and funding networks, exploiting porous borders to import weapons and sustain cadres. Parallel to the militancy's rise, targeted violence against the Kashmiri Hindu minority intensified, culminating in mass by early 1990. Threats broadcast via mosques, selective killings, and arson drove an estimated 300,000 Pandits from the , reducing their population from around 140,000-160,000 households pre-insurgency to a few thousand remnants. This demographic shift, amid over 200 documented Pandit murders between 1990 and 1995, reflected militants' strategy to consolidate control by eliminating perceived Indian loyalists, though some analysts attribute partial causation to broader chaos rather than systematic . Violence escalated sharply through the , peaking with thousands of annual fatalities from ambushes, bombings, and reprisals; for instance, 1995 recorded 5,946 incidents, the highest single-year tally. Overall, the conflict claimed approximately 41,000 lives from 1988 to 2017, including civilians, , and militants, with civilian deaths predominant in the early phase due to indiscriminate attacks and enforced shutdowns. Foreign fighters, often ideologically aligned with global jihadist networks, bolstered militant ranks, with reports documenting their infiltration alongside arms via established routes. Post-2000, insurgency intensity waned due to intensified Indian counter-operations, including precision strikes and intelligence-led arrests that dismantled local command structures and reduced active militants from thousands to hundreds by the mid-2010s. Annual fatalities dropped markedly after 2004, reflecting disrupted supply lines and surrenders amid sustained military pressure, though sporadic spikes persisted from residual cells. This decline underscored the causal role of external sustainment in prolonging the conflict, as domestic recruitment faltered without continuous inflows.

Abrogation of Article 370 and Post-2019 Developments

On August 5, 2019, the Government of India, exercising powers under President's Rule imposed on June 20, 2019, issued a presidential order abrogating Article 370 of the Constitution, which had granted special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir, and simultaneously revoked Article 35A, which restricted property rights and settlement for non-residents. This was followed by the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, effective October 31, 2019, which reorganized the former state into two union territories: Jammu and Kashmir (with a legislative assembly) and Ladakh (without one), thereby applying all provisions of the Indian Constitution uniformly and extending central laws on citizenship, fundamental rights, and reservations to the region. The changes aimed to integrate the territory more fully with India, eliminating perceived barriers to investment and development while addressing long-standing security concerns rooted in separatist militancy. Post-abrogation, metrics indicated a substantial decline in terrorism-related violence. Government data reported a 70% reduction in terror activities from 2019 to 2024, with terrorist incidents dropping from 417 in 2018 to around 125 by 2023, corroborated by independent trackers showing fewer civilian and force fatalities. This trend aligned with intensified counter-terrorism operations, including the neutralization of over 1,800 militants since 2019, though civilian casualties remained a persistent issue amid targeted killings. Politically, the first elections since 2014 were held in three phases from September 18 to October 1, 2024, with a of 63.88%, resulting in the National Conference securing 42 seats, 29, and 6, leading to a under sworn in on October 16, 2024. Economically, the abrogation facilitated infrastructure expansion, with over 2,200 projects valued at more than ₹25,000 completed or underway by 2024, including the (world's highest rail arch) and expansions in highways, airports, and like solar and hydroelectric initiatives. However, inflows remained minimal, totaling just ₹10.52 from 2020 to September 2024—the lowest among Indian states and union territories—despite incentives, highlighting challenges in attracting external capital amid ongoing perceptions. Initial measures included a starting August 5, 2019, suspending , mobile, and landline services until gradual restoration by February 2021, justified by authorities to prevent unrest but criticized for economic disruption. These developments marked a shift toward centralized and focus, with empirical gains but mixed economic progress.

Government and Politics

Administrative Divisions and Governance

Following the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act of 2019, effective from August 5, the region was bifurcated into two Territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and , with the former retaining a under direct central oversight. The Lieutenant Governor, appointed by the , serves as the administrative head, wielding executive authority akin to other Territories to ensure integrated governance and policy implementation. has held this position since August 7, 2020, focusing on developmental initiatives amid centralized control. The comprises two divisions— and —encompassing 20 in total, with featuring 10 in a predominantly Hindu-majority southern and similarly structured in the Muslim-majority valley. Each is subdivided into tehsils headed by tehsildars, facilitating administrative efficiency under divisional commissioners who report to the Lieutenant Governor's office. This supports targeted resource allocation for stability, , and equitable development across diverse terrains. Post-2019 reorganization, Institutions were fully integrated via the 73rd , establishing a three-tier system of gram panchayats, block panchayats, and district panchayats to devolve powers and boost local participation in planning and decision-making. The Jammu and Kashmir Panchayati Raj Act, amended post-abrogation, extended constitutional safeguards, including reservations for marginalized groups, with over 4,000 gram panchayats operationalized to channel funds directly for village-level projects. This shift addressed prior delays in , enabling approximately ₹1,200 in additional central grants for local bodies since 2019. The abrogation repealed Article 35A's restrictive provisions, which had discriminated against women marrying non-residents, refugees, and certain ethnic minorities by denying them property and residency rights, thereby extending equal citizenship under the Indian Constitution. National frameworks, including the Act of 2009, were uniformly applied, mandating free and compulsory education for children aged 6-14 and integrating Jammu and Kashmir into broader welfare schemes like the National Food Security Act. These measures prioritize non-discriminatory access to services, with centralized mechanisms ensuring compliance and monitoring for sustained regional integration.

Electoral Politics and Representation

The political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir has been dominated by regional parties advocating varying degrees of autonomy, alongside national parties favoring fuller integration with . The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC), established in , has historically emphasized regional autonomy and Kashmiri identity, securing majorities in assembly elections such as 2002 and forming coalitions thereafter. The People's Democratic Party (), founded in 1999, promoted a "self-rule" agenda and alternated power with NC, notably leading the government from 2002 to 2008 and in coalition with the (BJP) from 2014 to 2015. In contrast, the BJP, representing Hindu-majority Jammu, has campaigned on abrogation of special status and economic integration, gaining seats primarily in Jammu divisions during elections like 2014. Voter turnout has fluctuated significantly, often influenced by calls for election boycotts from separatist groups like the Hurriyat Conference, which argued polls lacked legitimacy without resolving the dispute; such appeals contributed to low participation, dipping below 30% in during some 1990s and 2000s polls. Turnout rebounded to around 58% in the 2014 assembly elections but remained contested amid insurgency-related disruptions. In the 2024 assembly elections—the first since the 2019 reorganization into union territories—overall turnout reached 63.88%, the highest for assembly polls in decades, with phase-wise figures including 61.38% in phase 1 and 69.69% in phase 3, signaling broader acceptance despite residual apathy in parts of the . This surge, exceeding the 2024 turnout in several districts, countered narratives of rejection, as proceeded peacefully without overt mobilization from traditional separatists. Electoral representation underwent restructuring via the Jammu and Kashmir Delimitation Commission, constituted in 2020 and finalized in 2022, which redrew boundaries using the 2011 census to allocate 90 assembly seats—43 in Jammu, 47 in Kashmir—addressing prior imbalances where Kashmir held disproportionate seats relative to population. The exercise increased Jammu's share from 37 to 43 seats, aiming for equitable demographic weighting, though contested by some Valley-based parties for allegedly favoring Jammu's Hindu-majority areas. Post-2019, electoral dynamics showed a shift from entrenched family-led parties toward diversified participation, with over 20 new outfits registering between 2019 and 2022, enabling independents and non-dynastic candidates to contest amid reduced militancy. In 2024, while NC retained strongholds through alliances like with , independents captured notable seats, reflecting grassroots mobilization over hereditary dominance previously exemplified by the Abdullah and families. This evolution, coupled with high turnout, underscores a pragmatic engagement with the electoral process, prioritizing development and over rhetoric in voter preferences.

Central Government Interventions

The has deployed central paramilitary forces, including the (CRPF), to Jammu and Kashmir for counter-insurgency operations, with approvals for additional battalions in response to specific threats, such as the deployment of three battalions to Jammu in August 2025 and in-principle approval for 20 more battalions following the Pahalgam attack in July 2025. These deployments, coordinated under the , aim to bolster internal security and facilitate the transition of responsibilities from the to central police forces where feasible. The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), extended to designated disturbed areas in Jammu and Kashmir under the Jammu and Kashmir Armed Forces Special Powers Act of 1990, grants security forces powers for search, arrest, and use of force based on periodic threat assessments by the central government, with discussions on partial revocation reflecting improved ground conditions. Empirical data indicate a significant decline in terrorist incidents post-2018, with the Ministry of Home Affairs reporting reduced infiltration and attacks, attributed to these coordinated federal security measures. In parallel, the has pursued initiatives, notably the Prime Minister's Package (PMDP) of , which allocated approximately Rs 58,477 across 53 projects in sectors including roads, power, , and health, implemented by 15 ministries. This package was extended by three years to March 2022 in December 2019, with further progress post-reorganization, completing or substantially advancing 29 projects by 2022 and supporting infrastructure like schools and connectivity. The upheld the constitutional validity of the 2019 presidential orders abrogating Article 370 and reorganizing Jammu and Kashmir into union territories in a unanimous on December 11, 2023, affirming Parliament's authority under Article 370(3) and directing restoration of statehood at an appropriate time. These interventions reflect mechanisms to address through integrated security and , correlating with official data on lowered levels.

Security and Conflicts

Origins and Nature of Militancy

Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir originated in the late 1980s, initially driven by groups like the , founded in 1977 as a secular, pro-independence outfit that launched armed operations in 1988 targeting Indian security installations. This phase emphasized Kashmiri through nationalist lenses rather than religious ideology, with early actions focused on hit-and-run attacks against military targets. However, by the early 1990s, the dominant strain shifted toward Islamist militancy, exemplified by the rise of , established in 1989 as an ideologically rigid group seeking accession to under an Islamic framework. This transition reflected deeper radicalization processes, including the propagation of Deobandi and Wahhabi interpretations of through cross-border networks that indoctrinated recruits with puritanical views framing the conflict as a religious over mere territorial grievance. Local clerical endorsements accelerated this ideological pivot, with fatwas issued in 1990 by figures like Mirwaiz Maulana Muhammad Farooq declaring armed resistance a religious , thereby recasting secular into jihadist fervor and drawing in via mosques and informal study circles. prioritized absolutist narratives of eternal conflict, sidelining pragmatic politics and fostering a cadre committed to total societal transformation, as evidenced by Hizbul's internal purges of non-conforming members and enforcement of Sharia-like codes in controlled areas by 1992. The nature of this militancy manifested in asymmetric tactics designed to maximize psychological impact, including ambushes on security convoys, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and selective assassinations of civilians labeled as informants or non-Muslims, such as the targeted killings of over 650 between 1989 and 2004. Groups adapted fidayeen-style assaults—small teams storming fortified positions with intent to die—while bombings, though infrequent compared to other insurgencies, occurred in high-profile cases like the 2000 Legislative Assembly attack and the 2019 incident, killing 40 paramilitary personnel. These methods deliberately blurred military-civilian lines to erode governance legitimacy, with records indicating that civilian fatalities from militant actions averaged 200-400 annually during peak years (1990s-2000s), alongside 300-500 security personnel deaths per year. Post-2019 trends show a marked decline in local recruitment into these groups, dropping from peaks of over 100 Kashmiri youth joining annually in 2016-2018 to fewer than 30 by 2022-2023, as conduits weakened amid expanded economic avenues and targeted interventions that disrupted ideological echo chambers without formal labeling here. This contraction underscores how sustained exposure to alternative prospects diluted the appeal of militant ideologies, reducing the influx of homegrown operatives reliant on prior or familial indoctrination pathways.

Pakistan-Sponsored Terrorism

Pakistan's (ISI) has been implicated in orchestrating terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir through support for militant groups, including provision of training, funding, and infiltration across the (LoC). Declassified intelligence and court testimonies, such as FBI evidence presented in U.S. proceedings, indicate ISI's direct sponsorship of attacks in the region, countering Pakistani denials by highlighting state agency involvement in proxy warfare. Groups like (LeT) and (JeM), designated as terrorist organizations by the , maintain training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), including areas near , where recruits are prepared for infiltration and operations in Jammu and Kashmir. These camps have facilitated attacks such as the 2008 Mumbai assaults, executed by LeT operatives motivated by the group's Kashmir-focused jihadist ideology, resulting in 166 deaths and demonstrating the spillover of Pakistan-sponsored militancy beyond the region. LeT founder Hafiz Muhammad Saeed faces UN sanctions for leading the group, with assets frozen and travel bans imposed since 2008 under Security Council resolutions. Post-2019, despite India's abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan-sponsored persisted, exemplified by the April 22, 2025, attack in Jammu and Kashmir, where militants killed 26 civilians, primarily Hindu tourists, using automatic weapons in a targeted on a scenic . This incident, the deadliest civilian attack in since 2008, prompted escalated cross-LoC firing, with initiating unprovoked small-arms and artillery exchanges in multiple sectors including and Poonch on subsequent nights, as reported in official statements. International scrutiny has intensified through the (FATF), which grey-listed from 2018 to 2024 for deficiencies in countering terror financing, including failures to prosecute leaders of LeT and JeM linked to operations. Even after removal from the grey list, FATF issued warnings in October 2025 that exit does not shield from ongoing monitoring, citing persistent use of digital wallets and other methods to fund camps amid reports of JeM explosives in Indian attacks. These designations underscore global recognition of state complicity, despite Pakistani assertions of non-involvement.

Indian Counter-Terrorism Measures

India has employed intelligence-led operations as a core component of its counter-terrorism strategy in Jammu and Kashmir, targeting militant hideouts and infiltration routes along the . These operations have resulted in the neutralization of thousands of militants since the onset of the in 1989, with conducting precision strikes based on human and . In response to the Uri army base attack on September 18, 2016, which killed 19 Indian soldiers, the Indian Army launched cross-border surgical strikes on September 29, 2016, targeting nine terror launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The strikes, executed by special forces, inflicted significant casualties on militants preparing for infiltration, as confirmed by the Ministry of External Affairs and Defence Ministry in a joint briefing. Similarly, following the Pulwama suicide bombing on February 14, 2019, that claimed 40 Central Reserve Police Force personnel, the Indian Air Force conducted the Balakot airstrike on February 26, 2019, striking a Jaish-e-Mohammed camp in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to disrupt terrorist training infrastructure. Post the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, counter-terrorism efforts intensified with enhanced area domination and cordon-and-search operations, leading to a marked decline in violent incidents. Stone-pelting events, often used as a proxy for unrest, dropped by approximately 88% in 2020-2021 compared to 2019 levels, with zero reported incidents in 2023 according to data. Rehabilitation programs for surrendering militants have also been implemented, offering vocational training and incentives to encourage defections and reduce recruitment. Legal measures have bolstered these operations, particularly through amendments to the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) in 2019, which empowered the government to designate individuals as terrorists and seize assets linked to terror financing without prior judicial approval. These provisions have facilitated actions against networks funding militancy, including hawala channels and overseas remittances, aligning with India's commitments under the Financial Action Task Force. Overall, these strategies have contributed to a reduction in terrorist incidents, with official statistics showing fewer infiltrations and attacks in recent years.

Persistent Challenges and Recent Incidents

Despite a general decline in encounters since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, remains a persistent challenge, increasingly driven by platforms that disseminate extremist and glorify . identified around 200 such handles in early April 2025, many linked to groups like The Resistance Front (TRF), which use encrypted apps and online networks for and incitement. These digital tactics have sustained low-level amid reduced physical infiltration, complicating counter-radicalization efforts that prioritize over solely kinetic operations. The April 22, 2025, attack in Baisaran Valley near exemplified ongoing targeted killings, with militants gunning down 26 civilians—mostly Hindu tourists—in the deadliest civilian assault in since 2019. Claimed by TRF, an offshoot of , the incident involved selective targeting of non-Muslims, prompting retaliatory strikes on terrorist infrastructure in and highlighting vulnerabilities in tourist-heavy areas despite enhanced security. forces later neutralized three perpetrators in 2025, but the event underscored how sporadic, high-impact attacks persist amid broader reductions in insurgency scale. Human rights monitoring reveals tensions between security imperatives and detention practices, with the Public Safety Act (PSA) enabling preventive arrests criticized for overuse against youth and dissenters. In March 2025, reported approximately 400 such PSA detentions of individuals without prior criminal records, fueling claims of arbitrary application to suppress . Separatist groups and some reports allege systemic abuses, including prolonged detentions without , yet aggregate data show declining overall violations and encounters, as reflected in National Human Rights Commission registrations and fewer large-scale militancy incidents compared to pre-2019 peaks. Freedom House's 2025 assessment upgraded Indian-administered Kashmir to "Partly Free," attributing improvements to competitive elections and stabilized , which counterbalance narratives of unmitigated repression with evidence of reduced violence lethality.

Demographics

Population Distribution and Composition

The population of the Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory stood at 12,541,302 according to the 2011 census, representing 1.04% of India's total population at that time. Projections based on census trends estimate the figure to reach approximately 16 million by 2025, reflecting a decadal growth rate of around 23% from 2001 to 2011 that has since moderated due to declining birth rates. This growth is unevenly distributed, with 75% of the population residing in rural areas and the remainder in urban settings as of 2011. Population density across the territory averages 124 persons per square kilometer, but exhibits stark regional variations driven by topography and arable land availability. The Kashmir Valley, encompassing about 16% of the territory's area, supports over half the population at a density of approximately 430 persons per square kilometer, concentrated in fertile alluvial plains. In contrast, the Jammu region's hilly and mountainous terrains yield sparser densities, often below 200 persons per square kilometer, with even lower figures in remote sub-Himalayan areas. Key urban centers anchor much of the territory's concentrated habitation. , the summer capital and largest city, had a district population of 1.24 million in 2011, with city estimates approaching 1.2 million amid ongoing . city, the winter capital, recorded a district population of 1.53 million in 2011, with the urban core projected at around 750,000 residents by 2025. Demographic trends indicate slowing expansion, with the dropping to 1.4 children per woman in the 2019–21 (NFHS-5), the lowest among Indian states and union territories and well below the replacement level of 2.1. This decline, consistent across regions including , signals an emerging aging population structure, as evidenced by rising median ages and reduced dependency ratios in recent surveys. Literacy rates stood at 67.16% overall in 2011, with registering higher attainment around 73% compared to approximately 65% in the , reflecting disparities in access to education infrastructure.

Religious and Ethnic Dynamics

The population of Jammu and Kashmir, as per the 2011 census, comprises approximately 68.3% , 28.4% , 1.9% , and 0.9% Buddhists, with smaller Christian and other minorities. Regional variations are stark: the is overwhelmingly Muslim at around 96%, while holds a Hindu majority of over 60%, and features Buddhist predominance exceeding 45%. These distributions reflect geographic and historical settlement patterns, with concentrated in the Valley and Pir Panjal areas, Hindus in Jammu plains, and Buddhists in Ladakh's high-altitude districts. The exodus of , a Hindu subcaste native to , dramatically altered its religious homogeneity. Between late 1989 and early 1990, amid rising Islamist militancy, an estimated 90,000 to 100,000 Pandits—roughly 90% of the community's 120,000 to 140,000 Valley residents—fled targeted violence, including assassinations and threats, leaving behind fewer than 5,000 by mid-1990. This , driven by insurgent calls for Islamic , reduced the Hindu presence in the Valley to under 1% today, transforming it from a pluralistic hub to a near-monolithic Muslim enclave and exacerbating sectarian divides. Ethnically, the region features diverse groups tied to religious identities: Kashmiri Muslims dominate the Valley, comprising the core Indo-Aryan population with Sunni-majority affiliations; Dogras, a Hindu-majority Indo-Aryan group, prevail in Jammu's lower hills; and nomadic Muslim Gujjars and Bakarwals, of Central Asian descent, traverse both divisions seasonally. Paharis, another Muslim and Hindu mix in the Pir Panjal, and Ladakhi Tibetans in the east add further layers, with tribal affiliations influencing and agrarian lifestyles. Linguistically, these dynamics manifest in spoken vernaculars: Kashmiri (Dardic branch) among Valley Muslims, Dogri and related dialects in Jammu's Hindu and Muslim areas, and Gojri among Gujjars, while serves as the longstanding since , functioning as a unifying administrative medium despite limited native fluency. This underscores ethnic fragmentation, with Urdu's Perso-Arabic script historically bridging Hindu and Muslim literati pre-partition. Pre-1990 inter-community relations exhibited syncretic elements, such as shared Sufi-Rishi traditions blending Islamic mysticism with indigenous Shaivite influences, fostering coexistence in mixed neighborhoods and joint festivals. However, underlying frictions—stemming from Hindu rule's perceived favoritism and land reforms favoring —eroded amid the 1989 , which weaponized religious identity through selective targeting of and , polarizing communities into fortified enclaves and mutual suspicion. This shift from pragmatic accommodation to communal estrangement persists, with trust deficits hindering reintegration efforts.

Migration and Demographic Policies

Following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, the Indian government amended domicile eligibility criteria through the Jammu and Kashmir Grant of Domicile Certificate (Procedure) Rules, 2020, which extended domicile status to individuals who had resided in the region for 15 years, studied there for seven years and passed class 10 or 12 examinations, or served in central or government roles. These rules, notified on March 31, 2020, via the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Adaptation of State Laws) Order, aimed to facilitate the integration of skilled workers and government employees to support administrative and developmental needs in the , rather than enabling unrestricted settlement. By April 2025, Jammu and Kashmir authorities reported issuing 83,742 domicile certificates to non-state subjects or outsiders since the changes, out of a total of over 3.5 million certificates processed, with the territory's estimated at approximately 13.8 million. This figure represents less than 1% of the and primarily includes personnel and their families relocated for service, with no verified of large-scale civilian influx altering residency patterns. Claims of "settler colonialism" or systematic demographic engineering, often voiced by regional political figures like PDP leader Waheed Parra, lack empirical support given the modest scale and targeted nature of issuances, contrasting with unsubstantiated projections of mass Hindu settlement. Parallel initiatives have focused on reversing the 1990 exodus of Kashmiri Pandits through rehabilitation schemes, including employment packages offering 25,000 jobs announced in 2021 and property restorations exceeding 600 cases by 2022, though actual permanent returns remain limited to a few thousand families amid security concerns. These efforts, extended through 2025-26 under central schemes, prioritize transit accommodation and financial aid but have not materially shifted the region's Muslim-majority composition, projected to hold steady absent a full since 2011. In , demographic shifts driven by settlement of and have been documented as altering local ethnic balances, unlike the data-constrained changes in Indian-administered areas where inflows remain negligible relative to population baselines. Fears of parallel engineering in Jammu and Kashmir thus appear overstated, as issuance trends indicate administrative pragmatism over transformative migration.

Economy

Traditional Sectors

The economy of Jammu and Kashmir prior to 2019 was predominantly agrarian, with and forming the backbone, contributing significantly to gross state domestic product (GSDP) and for a large rural . , in particular, dominated exports, with apples accounting for the bulk of production; the region supplied approximately 75-77% of India's total apple output, primarily from the , supporting over seven families directly or indirectly through cultivation, packing, and transport. cultivation, concentrated in areas like Pampore of Pulwama district, provided over 90% of India's domestic production from about 5,700 hectares of land, though yields had been declining due to factors such as climate variability and outdated farming practices. Handicrafts represented another traditional pillar, leveraging local skills in weaving Pashmina shawls from Changthangi goat wool, silk carpets, , and wood carvings, which employed thousands of artisans and generated export revenue but suffered from limited mechanization and market access. These sectors underscored a heavy reliance on primary activities, with little diversification; industrial growth remained stunted under the provisions of Article 370, which restricted non-residents from acquiring land or establishing businesses, deterring external investment and perpetuating a low-industrialization trap. Remittances from migrant laborers in Gulf countries supplemented household incomes and cushioned economic vulnerabilities, with inflows supporting consumption and small-scale investments amid seasonal agricultural ; however, this dependency masked structural weaknesses, including high rates exceeding 18% in the 15-29 age group, driven by skill mismatches and insufficient job creation in non-agrarian fields. Overall, these traditional sectors reflected underperformance during the period of special autonomy, characterized by stagnant growth and vulnerability to external shocks like weather disruptions or conflict-related disruptions, without substantial shifts toward or services.

Post-Abrogation Economic Reforms

Following the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, Jammu and Kashmir's integration into India's national economic architecture enabled the full extension of key laws such as the regime and the and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), which were previously limited by the region's special status. These measures promoted economic formalization by unifying taxation processes—eliminating exemptions that had encouraged informal trade—and providing a structured framework for corporate debt resolution, thereby enhancing investor confidence and credit access. Official assessments indicate that GST compliance expanded the tax base, with registered businesses increasing from around 50,000 in 2019 to over by 2023, though revenue impacts remain debated amid recent rate adjustments. Nominal Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) rose from Rs 1.57 crore in 2018-19 to Rs 2.25 crore by 2022-23, reflecting an average annual growth exceeding 7% in nominal terms, driven by central funding and policy alignment, though real GSDP growth averaged 3.97-4.89% from 2019-25, below the pre-abrogation rate of 6.91% and national averages around 8%. This growth contrasted with pre-2019 stagnation risks from insulated policies, as integration unlocked central schemes contributing up to 40% of budgetary outlay by 2024-25. Reforms in land acquisition and industrial policies spurred investment inflows, with 6,851 proposals totaling Rs 1.19 lakh crore approved for industrial estates and special economic zones (SEZs) by August 2024, alongside grounded investments of Rs 9,606 crore creating 63,710 jobs. Central oversight via schemes like PM's Programme enhanced transparency in fund allocation, extending jurisdiction to agencies such as the (), enabling prosecutions of cases previously shielded under state autonomy, though quantifiable corruption reductions remain unverified beyond anecdotal government claims.

Tourism and Infrastructure Growth

Tourism in Jammu and Kashmir experienced significant growth following the revocation of Article 370 in August 2019, with domestic tourist arrivals rebounding from a low of 25.19 in 2020—impacted by security concerns and the —to 2.07 in 2023 and a record 2.35 in 2024. Pre-2019 figures, such as approximately 1.26 arrivals in 2018, had established the region as a major draw, but post-revocation recovery demonstrated resilience amid intermittent violence. This uptick included foreign tourists rising from 1,650 in 2021 to 55,337 in 2023, reflecting improved perceptions of accessibility despite ongoing risks. The April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam's Baisaran Valley, which killed 26 civilians—primarily Hindu tourists—and was attributed to Pakistan-based groups, temporarily disrupted inflows, with Kashmir's tourist numbers plunging 52% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024. authorities responded with heightened security measures and diplomatic pressure on , while local officials emphasized the region's safety for visitors outside conflict zones to sustain momentum. By mid-2025, partial recovery efforts focused on diversified destinations beyond , underscoring tourism's role in economic stabilization despite such incidents. Infrastructure developments have bolstered tourism accessibility. The 272-km Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link (USBRL), initiated in 2002 and fully operationalized on June 7, 2025, connects the to India's broader rail network, reducing travel time and enhancing year-round connectivity previously hampered by harsh winters. Complementing this, the project—a 13.1-km bi-directional linking to —stands at 64% completion as of mid-2025, with full operationalization delayed to February 2028 due to geological challenges, disruptions, and a prior terrorist incident at a related site. Hydropower expansion supports infrastructural reliability for tourism-dependent areas. Jammu and Kashmir's installed capacity of approximately 3,540 MW is set to increase by up to 7,000 MW over the next 8-10 years through projects like the 1,856-MW Sawalkot on the and others totaling over 3,000 MW, including Pakal Dul (1,000 MW) and Ratle (850 MW), enabling consistent power for hotels, transport, and amenities amid seasonal demands. This growth has spurred job creation in and services, with the sector's expansion post-2019 generating for thousands in , guiding, and ancillary roles, though precise figures vary amid informal labor prevalence.

Culture and Society

Linguistic and Religious Traditions

Kashmiri, the predominant language of the , belongs to the Dardic subgroup of the Indo-Aryan language family and is spoken by approximately 7 million people. Among Muslim speakers, it is typically rendered in a modified Perso-Arabic script, adapted from conventions to accommodate unique phonetic elements like retroflex sounds. In the Jammu region, Dogri prevails as an Indo-Aryan language within the group, serving as a medium for local and oral traditions among the community. This linguistic mosaic underscores a heritage where languages evolved through historical migrations and interactions, fostering shared vocabularies in trade and daily life across ethno-religious lines. Kashmiri literary traditions exemplify syncretism, particularly through the vakhs (mystical verses) of 14th-century poetess Lal Ded (Lalleshwari), which fuse non-dualistic Shaivite philosophy with Sufi introspection on divine unity and self-realization. Her works, orally transmitted and later compiled, emphasize direct experiential knowledge of the divine over ritual orthodoxy, influencing subsequent poets who bridged Hindu asceticism and Islamic mysticism. This blending is evident in the order, a 15th-century Sufi movement in Kashmir that adopted vegetarianism and meditative seclusion reminiscent of pre-Islamic yogic rishis, promoting communal harmony through folk teachings on ethical living and tolerance. Religious observances reflect this heritage via shared shrine veneration and festivals transcending sectarian divides. Sufi urs commemorations, such as the annual event at Charar-e-Sharif honoring Sheikh Noor-ud-Din Noorani (Nund Rishi) in October, draw interfaith pilgrims for dhikr recitations and communal feasts, echoing the saint's syncretic shrukhs that parallel Lal Ded's verses. Similarly, the Hazratbal Shrine's urs for its relic of the Prophet Muhammad's hair fosters collective devotion, with practices incorporating local mystical elements. Kashmiri Hindus mark Navreh, the lunar new year on Chaitra Shukla Pratipada (typically March-April), with rituals invoking spring renewal and familial thali displays symbolizing prosperity, a tradition rooted in ancient Puranic calendars yet observed amid broader cultural coexistence. These customs prioritize experiential piety and seasonal cycles over doctrinal exclusivity, as seen in joint participation at sites blending architectural motifs from Persian and indigenous styles. Culinary practices further illustrate syncretic influences, with —a ritualistic multi-course banquet of up to 36 dishes, primarily lamb-based—tracing Persian-Islamic origins to 14th-century arrivals like , who integrated Central Asian feasting norms with local spices and yogurt tempering. Prepared by hereditary hanjis (cooks) for weddings and festivals, it embodies communal etiquette where dishes are shared from large platters, reflecting egalitarian values akin to teachings on irrespective of faith.

Social Structures and Customs

The Gujjar and Bakarwal communities maintain tribal pastoral systems characterized by seasonal nomadism, with primarily herding sheep and goats across high-altitude pastures in the during summers and lower plains in winters, while Gujjars focus on and buffalo rearing in semi-nomadic patterns. These groups, comprising about 11% of Jammu and Kashmir's population, rely on traditional institutions for and among kin networks. Traditional joint family systems, prevalent in rural and tribal areas for resource sharing and elder care, have declined since the 1990s due to , , and economic pressures, shifting toward nuclear units particularly among younger generations in districts like and . Consanguineous marriages, such as first-cousin unions, remain common at rates up to 62% in some Muslim-majority areas like , reinforcing kinship ties but also reflecting patriarchal norms. Gender roles exhibit patriarchal structures, with women often managing household and pastoral duties while facing restrictions on mobility and decision-making; honor killings, though underreported, persist in cases tied to inter-caste or disputes, with Jammu and Kashmir recording low but nonzero incidents amid broader Indian trends of familial enforcement of norms. Female literacy has risen to approximately 68% as of recent estimates, surpassing earlier figures from the 2011 (56.4%) due to expanded schooling access, though rural gaps remain with rates below averages for girls. The abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 extended central Indian laws to Jammu and Kashmir, applying equal inheritance rights to daughters under statutes like the Hindu Succession Act for applicable communities and overriding prior regional customs that denied women property shares upon marrying non-residents, thereby enhancing female economic agency. Higher education infrastructure has expanded with the establishment of IIT Jammu in 2016 and IIM Jammu in the same year, providing local access to and programs and reducing out-migration for studies, with campuses emphasizing research and skill development for regional youth. These institutions have enrolled thousands annually, contributing to evolving norms by promoting merit-based opportunities over traditional preferences.

Cultural Impacts of Conflict

The exodus of in the early 1990s, triggered by targeted violence amid rising militancy, led to the displacement of an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 individuals, fundamentally eroding Kashmir's composite culture that integrated Hindu, Muslim, and Sufi elements. Pandits, as custodians of Shaivite traditions and scholarship, contributed uniquely to this syncretic ethos through literature, rituals, and interfaith dialogues, whose absence post-exodus diminished and intensified sectarian divides. This demographic shift, coupled with militancy's promotion of exclusivist ideologies, weakened the historical framework that emphasized shared heritage over rigid communal boundaries. Militant groups, often backed by external Salafi-Wahhabi influences from and the , challenged Kashmir's entrenched Sufi traditions, which had fostered tolerance and for over seven centuries through shrines, poetry, and music. The influx of jihadist ideologies during the promoted , targeting Sufi mausoleums—such as attacks in —and shifting public discourse from mystical pluralism to puritanical intolerance, as evidenced by the rise of groups enforcing veiling and prohibiting traditional practices. This ideological pivot, documented in analyses of trends, replaced Sufi emphasis on inner with external conformity, altering social norms and diminishing the valley's historical resistance to orthodoxy. During the peak from the late 1980s to early 2000s, local artistic expression faced suppression through militant threats and , with performances and curtailed to avoid reprisals for perceived pro-India or non-conformist content. Folk theater and satirical works, once vibrant outlets for critique, declined sharply, as artists reported intimidation and venue shutdowns amid violence. Post-2019 abrogation of Article 370, Bollywood's return to for filming—evident in over a dozen productions by 2021, including location shoots in —signaled a resurgence in cinematic activity, shifting from militancy-era avoidance to portraying normalized landscapes, though local narratives remained marginalized. Despite disruptions, cultural resilience manifested in sustained folk traditions like Chakri music, a rhythmic blending Sufi and string instruments, which communities preserved through private gatherings and performances to maintain linguistic and emotional ties amid conflict. Handicrafts such as Pashmina and , employing thousands pre- and post-conflict, endured as economic and identity anchors, with artisan cooperatives adapting to market challenges while embedding motifs of resilience. Kashmiri exile literature, including memoirs like Rahul Pandita's Our Moon Has Blood Clots (2013), documented displacement's trauma and preserved rituals through narrative, fostering intergenerational continuity and revival calls. Recent efforts, such as community-led festivals and craft training programs since the mid-2010s, aim to reclaim traditions against radical erosion.

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