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Multilevel regression with poststratification

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) is a statistical technique that uses hierarchical Bayesian regression models to estimate outcomes for demographic or geographic subgroups from non-representative survey samples, followed by poststratification to weight these subgroup predictions by their proportions in the target population, thereby generating adjusted population-level estimates.^[1] The method addresses sampling biases by borrowing strength across groups through multilevel partial pooling, where parameters for sparsely observed cells are informed by related cells with more data, rather than relying solely on direct sample proportions or simple weighting schemes.^[2] Originally rooted in earlier work on poststratification with multinomial logistic regression, MRP gained prominence through applications in political science for small-area estimation, such as inferring state- or district-level public opinion from national polls that undersample certain regions or demographics.^[3] Empirical evaluations have demonstrated its effectiveness in improving predictive accuracy over traditional raking or disaggregation methods, particularly when surveys cover broad covariates like age, education, race, and geography that align with census data for poststratification cells.^[1] For instance, MRP has yielded estimates closely matching validation data from referenda and targeted polls, outperforming unadjusted aggregates in scenarios with clustered non-response.^[4] Despite its advantages in leveraging auxiliary information for robust inference under hierarchical data structures, MRP's performance hinges on correct model specification of predictors and random effects; misspecification can introduce bias, as the method extrapolates to unsampled cells via assumed relationships rather than observed data alone.^[5] Extensions like automated or machine-learning-enhanced MRP aim to mitigate this by optimizing covariate selection, though debates persist on its reliability versus direct sampling when validation benchmarks are scarce.^[5] Overall, MRP represents a model-based alternative to design-based survey weighting, prioritizing causal structure in covariate effects for causal realism in population inference.^[2]

Fundamentals

Mathematical Formulation

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) combines a hierarchical regression model, which partially pools information across subgroups to estimate cell-specific parameters, with a poststratification step that weights these estimates by known population cell proportions to produce population-level inferences.^[6] The approach is particularly suited to non-representative samples, such as opt-in surveys, by leveraging covariate structure to borrow strength across sparse cells.^[6] In the multilevel regression stage, outcomes Y for sample units i are modeled conditional on individual and group-level covariates, often using a generalized linear model framework. For binary outcomes common in applications like opinion polling, the logit link is applied: \operatorname{[logit](/page/Logit)}(p_i) = \alpha + \sum_{k} \beta_{k[g_k(i)]}, where \alpha is a global intercept, g_k(i) indexes the category of unit i in demographic level k (e.g., age group, region), and \beta_{k} are varying intercepts for category j in level k.^[6] These varying intercepts follow hierarchical priors to enable partial pooling, typically \beta_{k} \sim \operatorname{Normal}(0, \sigma_k) for each level k, with hyperpriors on the standard deviations \sigma_k \sim \operatorname{Normal}(0, 1) (half-normal or Cauchy variants often used for robustness).^[6] For continuous outcomes, a normal linear model may replace the logit, with Y_i \sim \operatorname{Normal}(\mu_i, \sigma) and \mu_i following an additive structure of fixed effects and varying intercepts.^[6] The poststratification step adjusts subgroup predictions to the target population by averaging over a grid of J covariate cells defined by the poststratification variables, weighted by cell sizes N_j: \hat{\mu}^{\mathrm{PS}} = \frac{\sum_{j=1}^J N_j \hat{\mu}_j}{\sum_{j=1}^J N_j}, where \hat{\mu}_j is the posterior mean (or predictive mean) of the outcome for cell j, obtained by integrating the model predictions over the cell's covariate values.^[6] This formula generalizes to quantities like proportions via the inverse logit for binary cases, ensuring estimates reflect population composition even if sample cells are empty or unrepresentative.^[6] Uncertainty propagation typically involves posterior simulation, drawing parameters from the multilevel model's posterior and recomputing poststratified quantities across draws.^[6]

Core Methodology and Post-Stratification

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) integrates hierarchical modeling to estimate parameters for population subgroups defined by covariates such as demographics and geography, then applies poststratification to weight these estimates by actual population cell proportions. This approach addresses limitations in non-representative samples by borrowing strength across cells via partial pooling in the multilevel regression, enabling reliable predictions even for undersampled subgroups.^[2]^[6] The core regression component posits an outcome Y for observation i in subgroup j as drawn from a distribution centered on a cell-specific mean \mu_j, often Y_{j} \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_j, \sigma^2) for continuous outcomes or logistic for binary. The mean \mu_j incorporates fixed effects from linear predictors \mathbf{X}_j \boldsymbol{\beta} and random effects for multilevel structure, such as varying intercepts a_{l}^k for nested categories l within levels k (e.g., age within region), with priors like a_l^k \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma_k^2). This hierarchical specification regularizes estimates in data-sparse cells by shrinking them toward group-level means, typically estimated via Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to handle the full posterior.^[6]^[2] Poststratification follows by applying the fitted model to predict \hat{\mu}_j for every cell j in a comprehensive grid of covariate combinations matching the population frame, such as from census data. The population-level estimate is then the weighted average \hat{\mu}^{PS} = \frac{\sum_{j=1}^J N_j \hat{\mu}_j}{\sum_{j=1}^J N_j}, where N_j denotes the population size of cell j. This step enforces representativeness without requiring cell-specific sampling quotas, as the multilevel model extrapolates to unsampled or thinly sampled cells.^[7]^[8] In practice, the poststratification grid J is constructed from high-quality auxiliary data on population distributions, ensuring \sum N_j approximates total population size; discrepancies in cell definitions between sample and census can introduce bias if unmodeled. The method's validity relies on the multilevel model's correct specification of covariate effects and independence assumptions within cells, with uncertainty propagated via posterior samples of \hat{\mu}_j.^[8]^[7]

Historical Development

Early Foundations in Small Area Estimation

Small area estimation (SAE) developed to overcome the limitations of direct survey-based estimators, which exhibit high variability for subpopulations or geographic domains with few observations. Early SAE efforts distinguished between direct methods—simple domain-specific averages from sample data—and indirect approaches that borrow information from larger areas or external covariates to stabilize estimates. These foundations addressed the need for reliable small-domain statistics in fields like agriculture, health, and census data, where traditional design-based inference fails due to sparse sampling.^[9]^[10] Synthetic estimation emerged as an initial indirect technique, applying regression models fitted at a national or large-area level to small-area covariates under the assumption of uniform relationships across domains. Pioneered in Hansen, Hurwitz, and Madow (1953) for regression-based synthetic estimates of radio listening, the method gained traction with the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics in 1968 for state-level disability prevalence. Composite estimators, blending direct and synthetic components to mitigate bias-variance trade-offs, were proposed by Holt, Smith, and Tomberlin (1979). These ad hoc methods highlighted the potential of covariate adjustment but often ignored domain-specific heterogeneity, prompting shifts toward explicit modeling of area effects.^[9]^[10] Model-based SAE advanced with the Fay-Herriot area-level model in 1979, which regresses direct small-area estimates on auxiliary predictors while incorporating random effects to capture unobserved heterogeneity, enabling empirical Bayes shrinkage of unreliable direct estimates toward a common regression line. This hierarchical structure borrowed strength across areas, reducing mean squared error compared to synthetic methods. Unit-level extensions, such as the Battese-Harter-Fuller model (1988), modeled individual responses with nested random effects for areas, facilitating direct use of microdata and covariates at the unit level. Empirical Bayes estimation of variance components was integral, providing a bridge to fully Bayesian multilevel frameworks; these innovations established regression-based adjustment and hierarchical pooling as core principles, directly informing the multilevel regression component of later poststratification techniques.^[9]^[11]

Key Milestones and Contributors

The foundational work on multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) emerged from efforts to refine small area estimation techniques, with Andrew Gelman and Thomas C. Little introducing the core method in their 1997 paper, which applied hierarchical logistic regression to enable poststratification across numerous demographic and geographic categories using survey data. This innovation allowed for more robust subpopulation estimates by leveraging multilevel partial pooling to stabilize predictions where direct sample sizes were sparse, extending beyond simpler weighting schemes constrained to coarse strata. Subsequent advancements focused on Bayesian implementations for broader applications, particularly in political science. In 2004 (published 2006), David K. Park, Andrew Gelman, and Joseph Bafumi developed a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression framework tailored for generating state-level opinion estimates from national polling data, incorporating poststratification cells defined by demographics like age, race, education, and region to correct for nonrepresentative samples. This work demonstrated MRP's capacity to produce reliable subnational inferences, outperforming direct aggregation in validation against benchmark surveys.^[12] Further refinements in the 2010s expanded MRP's flexibility and accuracy. Yair Ghitza and Andrew Gelman (2013) incorporated time-varying coefficients and interactions in dynamic models, enabling trend estimation across subgroups, while Gelman and colleagues (2016) emphasized robust prior specifications to mitigate overfitting in high-dimensional poststratification. These contributions, primarily from Gelman's research group at Columbia University, solidified MRP as a standard tool in survey analysis, with Gelman recognized as the method's principal architect and advocate through ongoing methodological critiques and software implementations like those in R and Stan.

Applications and Empirical Use

In Electoral Polling and Forecasting

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) is applied in electoral polling to derive subnational estimates of voter preferences and turnout from national or regional surveys that lack sufficient sample sizes at finer geographic levels. The method models individual vote intentions or turnout propensities using multilevel logistic or linear regressions incorporating covariates such as age, sex, education, ethnicity, and geographic hierarchies (e.g., state or district), then poststratifies predictions weighted by census population cell sizes to obtain aggregate forecasts for target domains like states or constituencies. This compensates for non-representative sampling by borrowing strength across groups via hierarchical priors, enabling predictions even from convenience or opt-in polls when auxiliary data are available.^[12]^[13] In U.S. presidential elections, MRP has been used to forecast state-level outcomes from national tracking polls. For the 2016 election, analysts applied MRP to national data, estimating state vote shares and turnout by demographics, yielding predictions aligned with final results in key battlegrounds after poststratification to American Community Survey benchmarks. Similar approaches informed 2020 forecasts, integrating polls with voter file and early voting data within Bayesian frameworks to adjust for nonresponse biases among subgroups like rural voters or non-college-educated whites. YouGov's 2024 MRP models for presidential and congressional races explicitly account for demographic-geographic interactions, projecting district-level margins by simulating thousands of respondents per cell before aggregation.^[14]^[15]^[16] Beyond the U.S., MRP facilitates constituency-level predictions in parliamentary systems. In the UK's 2019 general election, MRP models from firms like YouGov accurately anticipated the Conservative Party's 80-seat majority, outperforming uniform swing methods that underestimated gains in Leave-voting areas by modeling granular opinion variations across 650 constituencies using national panel data poststratified to census demographics. The technique debuted prominently in British elections around 2017, with renewed application in 2024 for seat projections amid fragmented polling. Empirical evaluations indicate MRP's utility in small-area estimation for elections, though its forecasts depend on model specification and prior assumptions, with successes attributed to capturing heterogeneous turnout and preference shifts not evident in aggregate polls.^[17]^[18]^[19]

In Public Health and Opinion Surveys

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) has been applied in public health to generate small-area estimates of health outcomes from non-representative or sparse survey data, such as the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). In a 2018 analysis, researchers used MRP on BRFSS data combined with other health surveys to produce county-level estimates of outcomes like obesity prevalence and physical inactivity, demonstrating improved precision over direct standardization methods by borrowing strength across geographic units via multilevel modeling.^[20] This approach leverages census poststratification cells defined by demographics and geography to adjust for sampling biases, yielding estimates that align closely with validation data from larger samples.^[20] In epidemiology, MRP facilitates estimation of disease prevalence in subpopulations with limited data. A 2014 study developed a multilevel logistic model with state- and county-level random effects to estimate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) prevalence across U.S. counties using BRFSS data from 2007–2011, poststratifying to 2010 census demographics; the resulting small-area estimates showed correlations of 0.85–0.92 with external benchmarks like hospitalization rates.^[21] Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, MRP was employed to adjust electronic health record data for SARS-CoV-2 exposure among outpatients, incorporating routine testing results and demographic covariates to produce stable regional prevalence estimates despite uneven sampling.^[22] These applications highlight MRP's utility in addressing participation biases and data sparsity, as validated against administrative records.^[23] For opinion surveys, MRP enables subnational inference from national polls by modeling responses with multilevel regressions on demographics and geography, then weighting to population strata. A 2008 study by Lax and Phillips applied MRP to American National Election Studies data to estimate state-level policy opinions, achieving errors under 3 percentage points compared to direct polling benchmarks.^[1] Organizations like Data for Progress have used MRP since 2018 to derive state-specific public attitudes on issues such as climate policy from national samples of around 1,000–2,000 respondents, poststratifying to census margins for age, race, education, and region, which reduces variance in small subgroups.^[24] This method outperforms simple raking in simulations with non-representative samples, providing reliable small-area opinion estimates where traditional stratified sampling is infeasible due to cost.^[25]

Advantages and Empirical Strengths

Improvements Over Conventional Sampling

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) addresses key limitations of conventional probability sampling, such as simple random sampling or direct stratification, which often require prohibitively large and costly samples to achieve reliable estimates for small or heterogeneous subpopulations. In conventional approaches, estimates for rare demographic cells or geographic subunits suffer from high variance due to sparse direct observations, leading to unstable predictions unless oversampling is employed, which increases expenses and logistical challenges.^[26] MRP mitigates this by employing a multilevel regression model to borrow strength across similar cells via partial pooling, generating smoothed predictions that incorporate hierarchical structure (e.g., varying intercepts and slopes by region or demographics), before poststratifying to population cell sizes..pdf) This process yields lower mean squared error (MSE) for subgroup estimates compared to raking or inverse-probability weighting in conventional designs, as demonstrated in simulations and real-world applications like state-level health indicator estimation from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, where MRP reduced variability and improved uniformity across strata.^[26]^[27] A primary improvement lies in MRP's ability to leverage non-representative or opt-in samples—such as online surveys with low response rates—by modeling selection biases through covariates and poststratifying to known population distributions from census data, enabling cost-effective scaling without relying on expensive probability-based recruitment.^[28] Conventional sampling struggles with declining response rates (often below 5% in telephone polls), amplifying non-coverage biases, whereas MRP's Bayesian framework integrates prior information and multilevel partial pooling to stabilize inferences, as evidenced in high-frequency polling studies where adjusted non-representative data matched election outcomes more closely than unadjusted aggregates.^[29] For instance, in subnational opinion estimation, MRP from national polls outperformed direct disaggregation by reducing bias in sparsely sampled regions like rural areas or minority groups, with empirical validation showing up to 50% variance reduction in predictive accuracy relative to stratified sampling benchmarks..pdf)^[30] Furthermore, MRP enhances small area estimation by exploiting geographic and demographic covariances, allowing reliable predictions even for cells with zero observations, in contrast to conventional methods that default to unstable direct estimates or discard data.^[31] Applications in public health, such as estimating behavioral risk factors across U.S. states, confirm MRP's superior precision over sample-based weighting, particularly when sample sizes per cell are under 30, as the multilevel structure propagates information from data-rich to data-poor areas without assuming independence across units.^[26] This causal realism in modeling—rooted in hierarchical dependencies rather than ad hoc adjustments—underpins its empirical edge, though gains depend on accurate specification of the multilevel priors and poststratification cells.^[27]

Demonstrated Predictive Accuracy

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has exhibited predictive accuracy in small-area estimation, particularly when validated against benchmark data from larger surveys. In a study utilizing national health survey data from the U.S., MRP-generated small-area estimates of population health indicators, such as obesity prevalence, demonstrated close alignment with direct estimates from state-level surveys, with average absolute biases below 2 percentage points and correlations exceeding 0.9 for most metrics, confirming its reliability for subnational inference even with sparse data.^[32] In electoral forecasting, MRP has enabled precise sub-state predictions from national samples, outperforming some conventional approaches. For the 2016 U.S. presidential election, MRP applied to national tracking polls produced state-level estimates of vote shares and turnout that were more accurate than aggregated predictions from limited state polls, achieving lower mean absolute errors in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, where direct polling samples were under 500 respondents per state.^[14] MRP's efficacy extends to adjusting non-representative data for predictive purposes. Analysis of Xbox user surveys—a convenience sample skewed toward younger males—adjusted via MRP yielded 2012 U.S. election forecasts aligning within 1-2 percentage points of national polling averages and actual outcomes, demonstrating the method's capacity to correct for sampling biases through hierarchical modeling and poststratification.^[13] Similarly, in small-area public opinion estimation, MRP models validated against census-validated benchmarks showed root mean squared errors under 3% for demographic subgroup preferences, underscoring its outperformance over simple raking in heterogeneous populations.^[1]

Limitations and Criticisms

Methodological Assumptions and Potential Biases

Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) presupposes that the specified multilevel model accurately represents the conditional expectation of the outcome given the covariates, including assumptions of linearity (or appropriate link functions in generalized linear models), independence of observations conditional on covariates, and normality of random effects in hierarchical levels.^[32] These modeling choices extend standard regression assumptions to clustered data, relying on partial pooling via group-level priors to stabilize estimates in sparse cells, but require that the hierarchical structure—such as varying intercepts or slopes by geographic or demographic groups—mirrors the true data-generating dependencies.^[23] Poststratification further assumes access to exhaustive and precise population cell sizes N_j from external sources like censuses, enabling weighted aggregation of cell-specific predictions \hat{\mu}_j to the population total, under the condition that cells are mutually exclusive and collectively comprehensive.^[33] A core implicit assumption is the sufficiency of modeled covariates for adjusting selection or nonresponse mechanisms: MRP infers unsampled cell outcomes by extrapolating from observed patterns, presuming that systematic differences between sample and population are captured by the covariate structure rather than unmodeled confounders.^[34] This contrasts with design-based inference, introducing model-dependence where validity hinges on the researcher's specification choices, including prior distributions that regularize shrinkage toward group means.^[35] Biases in MRP estimates arise predominantly from model misspecification, where unmodeled interactions, nonlinear effects, or omitted variables distort predictions, especially when extrapolating to cells with minimal or zero sample representation; simulations indicate such errors amplify if the multilevel hierarchy fails to encode underlying geographic or subgroup structures.^[30] For instance, if covariates inadequately predict selection into the sample—common in opt-in or low-response surveys—residual nonresponse bias endures, as evidenced by applications estimating disease prevalence from internet panels, where MRP narrowed but retained nonnegligible deviations from benchmark probability samples (e.g., biases of 1-3 percentage points in subgroup estimates).^[36] ^[37] Data sparsity poses additional risks: while multilevel borrowing reduces variance in small cells, extreme undersampling can lead to over-shrinkage toward implausible priors or failure to detect local deviations, yielding biased aggregates if population weights N_j overweight unstable \hat{\mu}_j.^[38] Invalid poststratification frames, such as misaligned census categories or temporal mismatches between sample and population data, compound these issues by introducing weighting errors uncorrelated with the model.^[34] Empirical validations, including cross-jurisdictional comparisons, underscore that MRP's bias reduction depends on covariate quality and model fit; poorly predictive auxiliaries or hierarchical oversimplifications can inflate mean squared errors relative to unadjusted raking in certain domains.^[35]^[37]

Controversies in High-Stakes Predictions

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has encountered significant criticism in electoral forecasting due to instances where its subnational estimates translated into inaccurate national vote projections, even when seat-level predictions proved more reliable. In the United Kingdom's July 4, 2024, general election, Survation's MRP model forecasted a Labour Party landslide with 470 seats but overestimated Labour's national vote share by 3.5 percentage points (projecting 43.6% against an actual 33.7%) and underestimated Reform UK's share by 4.9 points (projecting 12.1% against 17.0%).^[39] Similar overestimations affected the Liberal Democrats (projected 14.4% vs. actual 12.2%), while Conservative projections were closer but still off by 1.7 points. Survation's post-election analysis attributed these errors primarily to unmodeled national swings favoring Reform UK, particularly among older voters in small rural cells with sparse data, where MRP's hierarchical borrowing from national trends amplified biases rather than correcting them.^[39] Critics, including polling analysts, argue that MRP's reliance on assumed stable multilevel structures can propagate aggregate sampling biases—such as nonresponse from low-engagement voters—into poststratified estimates, fostering overconfidence in high-volatility environments. For example, in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, MRP-augmented state-level polling underestimated Donald Trump's support in Midwest swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan by 4-7 points, as models failed to fully adjust for differential nonresponse among non-college-educated white voters, who were underrepresented in surveys by up to 10 percentage points relative to census benchmarks.^[40] This issue persisted into 2020, where MRP-informed forecasts aggregated from state polls missed Trump's performance in similar demographics, with errors exceeding 3 points in battlegrounds, highlighting how poststratification on static covariates like age, education, and race cannot compensate for dynamic behavioral shifts un captured by the model's priors.^[40]^[41] Further scrutiny arises from comparative studies showing MRP's marginal gains over simpler weighting methods like raking in nonprobability samples, raising questions about its added complexity in high-stakes scenarios where computational smoothing may obscure genuine local heterogeneities. Pew Research Center's 2018 analysis of opt-in online polls found that MRP reduced bias in subgroup estimates but did not outperform raking by more than 1-2 points on average for national aggregates, suggesting that in elections with rapid preference changes, MRP's variance reduction comes at the cost of understating uncertainty from model misspecification.^[37] Proponents counter that such errors stem from data quality rather than the method itself, yet repeated discrepancies in volatile races have prompted calls for hybrid approaches incorporating real-time adjustments beyond standard multilevel priors.^[41]

Extensions and Recent Advances

Structured Priors and Computational Enhancements

Structured priors in multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) incorporate domain-specific knowledge or partial pooling structures into the Bayesian hierarchical model to mitigate bias arising from sparse data cells or unmodeled dependencies. Unlike standard weakly informative priors, structured priors explicitly encode relationships such as smoothness across geographic units or demographic groups, often via Gaussian processes or conditional autoregressive distributions tailored to the poststratification cells. This approach reduces absolute bias and posterior variance in MRP estimates, particularly in scenarios with non-representative samples or high-dimensional stratifications, as demonstrated in simulation studies where structured priors outperformed baseline priors in over 70% of tested data regimes.^[42] For instance, in analyses of U.S. survey data on political opinions, structured priors yielded more stable subgroup estimates by borrowing strength across correlated cells, avoiding overfitting in low-sample strata.^[42] Computational enhancements have addressed MRP's scalability challenges, where traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling becomes prohibitive for large poststratification tables exceeding millions of cells. Sparse MRP leverages data-augmentation techniques to accelerate estimation, achieving convergence speeds up to 10 times faster than full MCMC while maintaining comparable accuracy in predictive tasks like small-area health estimates.^[43] Similarly, embedded MRP (EMRP) integrates the estimation of population cell proportions directly into the Bayesian workflow, eliminating reliance on external census data and reducing sensitivity to auxiliary variable misspecification; empirical evaluations on simulated finite populations showed EMRP lowering mean squared error by 15-20% compared to standard MRP under covariate shift.^[44] Machine learning integrations, such as autoMrP, combine multilevel regression with ensemble methods like random forests for covariate selection and prediction, enhancing out-of-sample performance without sacrificing MRP's interpretability. In electoral forecasting applications, autoMrP models reduced prediction error by 5-10% relative to vanilla MRP across varying sample sizes from national polls.^[45] Recent approximate Bayesian methods, including variational inference implemented in tools like Stan, further enable rapid inference for massive datasets, with computation times dropping from hours to minutes for state-level poststratifications involving thousands of cells.^[46] These advances collectively expand MRP's applicability to dynamic, high-stakes domains like real-time public opinion tracking, though they require careful validation to ensure prior specifications align with causal structures in the data.^[46]

Emerging Techniques and Tools

Recent developments in multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) include embedded MRP (EMRP), which integrates the estimation of population cell counts for poststratification directly into the modeling workflow by generating synthetic populations from auxiliary variables, thereby addressing limitations in sparse data scenarios.^[47] This approach, proposed in 2024, enhances accuracy when joint distributions of poststratification cells are unavailable, as demonstrated in simulation studies showing reduced bias compared to traditional MRP.^[48] Another advancement involves structured prior distributions designed to mitigate bias in MRP estimates, particularly in hierarchical models with varying cell sizes or sparse subgroups.^[49] These priors, formalized in a 2021 Bayesian Analysis paper, incorporate partial pooling and smoothness assumptions across levels, yielding variance reductions of up to 50% in posterior means across diverse data regimes, as validated through extensive simulations.^[2] Spatial priors have also emerged for MRP applications in geographically clustered data, such as estimating COVID-19 vaccination rates, where they improve predictive performance by accounting for local dependencies.^[46] Hybrid methods combining MRP with machine learning, such as autoMrP, automate model selection and incorporate algorithms like random forests or gradient boosting to refine predictions before poststratification, outperforming standard MRP in cross-validation benchmarks on survey data.^[50] Similarly, multilevel regression with synthetic poststratification (MrsP) relaxes requirements for full crosstabulated census data by using marginal distributions, achieving comparable accuracy to MRP in empirical evaluations from 2021 onward.^[51] Software tools facilitating these techniques include the R package rstanarm, which streamlines Bayesian MRP via formula-based interfaces to Stan for efficient MCMC sampling, as detailed in its 2025 vignette for hierarchical polling models.^[52] The autoMrP package extends this by integrating automated machine learning pipelines for MRP, supporting scalable implementation on large datasets.^[50] Additionally, mrpkit provides modular R tools for poststratification and visualization, emphasizing reusable workflows for subpopulation estimates.^[53] These tools leverage advances in probabilistic programming, enabling faster computation for complex priors and high-dimensional poststratification cells.

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Multilevel regression and poststratification: a modelling approach to estimating population quantities from highly selected survey samples. Am J Epidemiol 2018; ...
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Validation of Multilevel Regression and Poststratification ... - NIH
Small area estimation is a statistical technique used to produce reliable estimates for smaller geographic areas than those for which the original surveys ...
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[PDF] Using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate ...
Aug 28, 2018 · Gelman 2006 writes that this leads the model to overstate the expectation of true variance, which can lead to less-than-optimal shrinkage of ...
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[PDF] Multilevel Regression and Poststratification
Jul 30, 2024 · Stan makes MRP generally accessible as an open-source software project for statistical modeling and high-performance statistical computation.
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On the Use of Auxiliary Variables in Multilevel Regression and ... - NIH
Jul 2, 2025 · In this paper, we examine the inferential validity of MRP in finite populations, exploring the impact of poststratification and model specification.
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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31662236
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Comparing MRP to raking for online opt-in polls
Nov 13, 2018 · Pew Research Center compared a variety of weighting approaches and found that complex statistical adjustments using machine learning don't perform much better ...
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Evaluating Multilevel Regression and Poststratification with Spatial ...
Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient estimation method that can quickly produce improved population-adjusted ...
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[PDF] 2024 general election MRP model post-mortem
Jul 5, 2024 · Our preliminary conclusion is that we failed to estimate national vote shares correctly. Our headline figures. Seat tallies. The primary use of ...
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[PDF] Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
in an election forecast the goal is to adjust to the population of voters. My own preferred approach of MRP works by dividing the problem into two parts ...
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Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting
The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races?
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Improving multilevel regression and poststratification with structured ...
Aug 19, 2019 · This work aims to provide a new framework for specifying structured prior distributions that lead to bias reduction in MRP estimates.Missing: principles | Show results with:principles
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[PDF] Sparse Multilevel Regression (and Poststratification (sMRP))
Jul 19, 2018 · ... Gelman ... “Predicting State Presidential. Election Results Using National Tracking Polls and Multilevel Regression With Poststratification.<|separator|>
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https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sim.9956
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Improved Multilevel Regression with Poststratification through ...
Multilevel regression with poststratification (MrP) has quickly become the gold standard for small area estimation. While the first MrP models did not ...
[46]
Evaluating Multilevel Regression and Poststratification with Spatial ...
Mar 7, 2025 · Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient indirect estimation method that can quickly produce improved ...
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Embedded multilevel regression and poststratification: Model-based ...
Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular approach for small subgroup estimation as it can stabilize estimates by fitting multilevel ...
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Embedded multilevel regression and poststratification: Model-based ...
Jan 30, 2024 · We embed the estimation of population cell counts needed for poststratification into the MRP workflow: embedded MRP (EMRP).Missing: enhancements | Show results with:enhancements
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Improving Multilevel Regression and Poststratification with ...
This work aims to provide a new framework for specifying structured prior distributions that lead to bias reduction in MRP estimates.
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CRAN: Package autoMrP
Jan 30, 2024 · autoMrP: Improving MrP with Ensemble Learning. A tool that improves the prediction performance of multilevel regression with post ...
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Improved Multilevel Regression with Post-Stratification Through ...
Aug 7, 2025 · On the methodological side, research has improved MRP by using more complex hierarchical models (Ghitza and Gelman 2013), exploring machine ...
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MRP with rstanarm
Sep 29, 2025 · Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) (Little 1993; Lax and Phillips 2009; Park, Gelman, and Bafumi 2004) has been shown to be ...<|separator|>
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lauken13/mrpkit: Tools and tutorials for multi-level ... - GitHub
After model fitting, mrpkit handles the post-stratification step, producing population and sub-population estimates. Summary statistics and simple ...