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Data for Progress

Data for Progress is an American left-of-center think tank, polling firm, and advocacy organization founded in 2018 as a project of the 501(c)(4) nonprofit Tides Advocacy.^[1]^[2] It conducts public opinion research, data analysis, and policy memos aimed at demonstrating the electoral and popular viability of progressive causes, including universal healthcare, aggressive climate action, and restrictions on immigration enforcement.^[1]^[2] Established by political activist Sean McElwee, data scientist Colin McAuliffe, and political scientist Jon Green, the group has focused on equipping progressive movements and candidates with empirical arguments to challenge centrist Democratic positions.^[3] Its work includes nationwide polling showing support for policies like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal among broad demographics, as well as advocacy for dismantling U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and recommending left-leaning appointees for federal roles.^[1] Data for Progress achieved influence in progressive circles by supporting Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign and launching initiatives like the Progressive Cabinet Project, but faced internal turmoil in 2022 when McElwee was ousted following a no-confidence vote tied to his undisclosed ties to cryptocurrency executive Sam Bankman-Fried amid the latter's fraud scandal.^[1]^[3] As an advocacy-oriented entity rather than an independent research body, its outputs consistently frame data to advance left-wing policy agendas, reflecting its explicit mission to reshape the Democratic Party toward more radical positions.^[2]^[1]

Founding and Early Development

Establishment and Founders

Data for Progress was established in 2018 as a progressive think tank focused on public opinion research, polling, and data analysis to advance left-leaning policy agendas.^[4] The organization was founded by Sean McElwee, a political activist and researcher previously involved in progressive causes, who served as its inaugural executive director starting in August 2018.^[5] McElwee, known for his work on immigration reform and co-founding efforts like the advocacy group to abolish ICE, positioned Data for Progress to provide rapid polling and strategic insights for Democratic campaigns and progressive movements emerging from the post-2016 political landscape.^[6] As a fiscally sponsored project of Tides Advocacy, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit arm of the Tides network, Data for Progress benefited from the infrastructure of a larger advocacy ecosystem without initially forming as an independent entity.^[1] This arrangement allowed quick operational startup, emphasizing low-cost, high-turnaround surveys to influence primaries and policy debates within the Democratic Party. McElwee's vision drew from empirical polling to demonstrate public support for bold progressive policies, contrasting with more establishment-oriented approaches. While McElwee led the organization until his dismissal in November 2022 amid controversies over personal financial activities, the founding period established its core methodology of data-driven advocacy.^[7]^[8]

Initial Focus and Growth

Data for Progress was established by Sean McElwee as a left-of-center public opinion research group focused on generating data-driven reports and scorecards to advocate for populist progressive policies within the Democratic Party, such as Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and the abolition of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).^[1] Early efforts emphasized rapid polling and analysis to demonstrate purported public support for these positions, aiming to influence primary challenges and shift party priorities away from centrist approaches.^[1] By mid-2018, the organization had produced analyses on topics including health care policy and voting barriers, drawing on datasets like the Cooperative Congressional Election Studies 2014 Survey to highlight disparities in Medicaid expansion support among voter groups.^[9] The group's initial growth involved expanding beyond basic polling to strategic tools for campaigns, including the New Progressive Agenda Project launched on August 8, 2018, which provided district- and state-level issue polling to resource-constrained progressive candidates and incumbents.^[10] This initiative addressed gaps in traditional campaign research, enabling targeted messaging on progressive issues and supporting primary contenders like those challenging establishment Democrats.^[11] Data for Progress also began conducting quick-turnaround surveys to boost liberal candidates in competitive races, leveraging findings to promote an aggressive progressive agenda through media and direct advocacy.^[12] Subsequent expansion included the Give Smart Initiative ahead of the 2020 elections, which vetted pivotal races and directed donor funds to progressive causes, and the Progressive Cabinet Project initiated in early 2020, producing memos with policy recommendations and personnel suggestions for a hypothetical progressive administration, such as nominating figures like Janet Yellen and Deb Haaland.^[1] These efforts, coupled with earned media placements and social media outreach, elevated the organization's profile, leading to citations by U.S. senators, the White House, and outlets including The New York Times and The Washington Post.^[13] Recognition for polling accuracy in the 2020 federal elections and the 2021 New York City mayoral primary further solidified its role as a key player in progressive strategy, transitioning from niche activism to mainstream influence within Democratic circles.^[13]^[14]

Mission, Ideology, and Organizational Structure

Stated Mission and Objectives

Data for Progress (DFP) self-identifies as a progressive think tank focused on research, polling, and data analysis to generate strategic insights that inform policymaking and provide movements with resources for advancing progressive priorities. Its core mission, as articulated on its official website, is to "produce strategic insights, inform policymaking, and equip movements with the tools needed to advance a more just, equitable future."^[13] This objective emphasizes empirical support for left-leaning policies through data-driven advocacy, positioning DFP as an analytical partner for progressive campaigns and organizations. Key operational objectives include conducting voter file analysis to identify electoral opportunities, developing digital communication strategies, executing polls to gauge public opinion, crafting policy proposals, and offering messaging guidance to refine advocacy narratives.^[13] DFP claims these efforts contribute to electoral successes, such as providing what it describes as the most accurate polling for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and the 2021 New York City mayoral primary.^[13] The organization also states goals of amplifying progressive ideas via earned media and social platforms while countering perceived misinformation on policy issues.^[13] DFP's structure supports these aims through affiliated entities: the Data for Social Good Education Fund, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit for educational and research activities, and Data for the Social Good, Inc., a 501(c)(4) organization enabling advocacy and lobbying.^[13] These components enable DFP to blend nonpartisan-appearing research with partisan-aligned outputs, though its self-described progressive orientation indicates an explicit ideological commitment rather than neutrality in source selection or analysis.^[13]

Ideological Framework

Data for Progress espouses a progressive ideological framework centered on advancing bold left-leaning policies through data-driven analysis and polling, with the explicit goal of demonstrating their broad electoral appeal beyond traditional progressive bases. The organization defines progressivism as encompassing transformative reforms in economic redistribution, universal healthcare, aggressive climate action, and expansions of social safety nets, often framing these as responses to systemic inequalities in wealth, race, and gender.^[2] ^[15] This approach rejects incrementalism in favor of policies like the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, which it polls to argue enjoy supermajority support among diverse voter demographics when messaged effectively.^[15] Central to its framework is the integration of empirical polling with advocacy, positing that progressive ideas can "win with broader electorates" by countering perceived misinformation and providing strategic message testing. Data for Progress emphasizes a holistic view of justice, linking economic policies with social issues such as racial equity and gender rights, as evidenced in analyses showing voter convergence across these domains rather than isolated attitudes.^[13] ^[16] It positions itself as equipping a "new generation unafraid to fight for their beliefs," supporting progressive candidates and movements via voter file analysis, digital targeting, and policy briefs that prioritize causal claims about policy popularity over elite-driven moderation.^[13] ^[17] While self-described as data-oriented, the framework inherently aligns with left-of-center priorities, as a project of Tides Advocacy, and has evolved from fringe left activism toward mainstream Democratic influence, polling to bolster policies like wealth taxes that showed 61% support in early tests. Critics from within progressive circles have accused it of "selling out" by normalizing radical ideas within establishment channels, though the organization maintains fidelity to core progressive tenets.^[1] ^[18] ^[12]

Leadership and Funding Sources

Data for Progress was co-founded by Sean McElwee, who served as its executive director from its establishment in 2018 until his dismissal in November 2022 following a no-confidence vote by staff.^[1]^[19] The ouster stemmed from revelations of McElwee's undisclosed financial ties to Sam Bankman-Fried, including over $300,000 in contributions funneled to the organization from Bankman-Fried's entities, such as the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, without proper disclosure to the board or staff.^[20] McElwee's personal gambling activities, which exceeded $1 million in losses, further eroded trust, as they coincided with the FTX scandal's exposure of risky financial practices.^[8] Danielle Deiseroth succeeded as interim executive director in December 2022, becoming permanent executive director by May 2023, a role she held through at least August 2025 while overseeing expansions in climate polling and policy analysis.^[21]^[22] She joined the organization in 2020, initially focusing on environmental data, and led during a period of internal stabilization post-McElwee.^[23] Other key staff include polling directors and analysts, though no formal board is publicly detailed; leadership transitions reflect efforts to maintain operational continuity amid progressive policy advocacy.^[24] As a fiscally sponsored project of Tides Advocacy, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, Data for Progress does not file independent IRS Form 990 returns, limiting public visibility into its finances.^[1] Tides Advocacy provides administrative, legal, and financial infrastructure, channeling funds from donors while often shielding specific contributor identities through its donor-advised fund model.^[25] This structure, common among progressive advocacy groups, has drawn criticism for reducing transparency compared to standalone nonprofits, though Tides reports aggregate support from foundations and individuals aligned with left-of-center causes.^[26] The organization's revenue relies on grants and contributions funneled via Tides, with the 2022 FTX-linked funds highlighting vulnerabilities in donor vetting practices.^[20] No comprehensive donor list is disclosed, consistent with 501(c)(4) privacy allowances.^[1]

Research Methodology and Polling Practices

Data Collection and Sampling Techniques

Data for Progress conducts surveys primarily through SMS text-to-web methods and web panels, supplemented by live caller phone interviews, interactive voice response systems, and mail-to-web approaches as required for specific projects.^[27] These modes target registered voters and likely voters, with SMS surveys drawing from voter files enriched with cellphone records and response propensity scores to contact potential respondents via text messages linking to online questionnaires.^[27] Web panels recruit participants through marketplaces such as Cint, using email and SMS invitations with incentives like cash payments or gift cards to encourage completion.^[27] Sampling begins with random selection of records from commercial voter files, stratified by key variables including age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, geography, and partisanship to promote representativeness.^[27] For web panels, preset quotas align with demographic and partisan benchmarks derived from recent election data and census figures.^[27] The organization oversamples low-propensity respondents—such as infrequent voters or those from underrepresented groups—to mitigate nonresponse bias, while most surveys achieve weighted sample sizes exceeding 1,000 respondents, yielding margins of error around ±3 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval.^[27] Post-collection weighting employs raking procedures with regularization constraints to align responses with benchmarks for likely voters, incorporating variables like age, gender, education, race, geographic region, and recalled 2020 presidential vote (updated for 2024 cycles).^[27] Weights are bounded to remain close to uniform distribution, preventing extreme adjustments that could amplify variance, and sum to the effective sample size N.^[27] This approach addresses potential non-coverage errors inherent in opt-in panels and digital modes, though the firm acknowledges limitations from nonrandom participation patterns tied to political engagement levels.^[27] Qualitative data collection includes focus groups (e.g., 17 conducted in 2023 across nine states and Washington, D.C.) and one-on-one interviews to complement quantitative polling.^[27]

Analytical Approaches and Reported Accuracy

Data for Progress primarily employs non-probability sampling methods for its surveys, drawing from commercial voter files to select records at random and stratifying by key demographics such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, geography, and partisanship to approximate representativeness.^[27] Data collection occurs mainly through SMS text-to-web recruitment, targeting cellphone records linked to voter files, supplemented by web panels sourced from marketplaces like Cint with preset quotas and screening questions to align with demographic targets.^[27] Additional modes, including live telephone calls, interactive voice response (IVR), and mail-to-web, are used selectively for specific projects to mitigate nonresponse biases, particularly among low-engagement groups like non-college-educated or rural respondents.^[27] These approaches prioritize rapid turnaround for omnibus and targeted polls, with sample sizes typically exceeding 1,000 respondents nationally, yielding margins of error around ±3% at 95% confidence.^[27] Post-collection, Data for Progress applies raking weighting procedures to adjust samples toward benchmarks for likely voters, incorporating variables like age, gender, education, race, region, and recalled 2020 presidential vote, with regularization techniques to bound weights and prevent extremes that could inflate variance.^[27] Analytical outputs often include subgroup breakdowns, turnout modeling, and specialized techniques such as maximum difference (maxdiff) scaling for evaluating policy or message preferences, enabling comparisons of voter priorities.^[28] The organization has iteratively refined these methods since 2020, incorporating multi-mode recruitment and complex turnout models to address prior underperformance in capturing Republican-leaning turnout.^[29] However, reliance on opt-in web and SMS panels introduces potential self-selection biases, as non-probability samples may underrepresent demographics with lower online or tech engagement despite weighting adjustments.^[30] In terms of reported accuracy, Data for Progress documented improvements in its 2022 midterm polling, achieving a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.05—lower than the industry average of 0.064—and an average bias of 1.9 points favoring Republicans across key Senate and gubernatorial races, outperforming many multistate public pollsters in bias reduction.^[29] External evaluations aligned with this, ranking the firm in the top 10% for historical accuracy per FiveThirtyEight's metrics as of March 2024, with 2022 average errors around 4.4 points.^[31]^[27] For the 2024 presidential election, however, analyses indicated a reversal, with an average error of 4.0 points and a Democratic bias of +3.2 points, contributing to overestimations of Democratic support in national and battleground polls.^[32] Critics, including WPA Intelligence, highlighted this as part of a pattern among certain firms underestimating Republican performance due to methodological limitations in weighting for late-deciding or low-propensity voters.^[33] Independent raters like Media Bias/Fact Check classify Data for Progress as a credible pollster with high factual reporting, though its left-center ideological alignment raises questions about question wording and sample tuning potentially favoring progressive framing.^[34] Overall, while empirical metrics show competence in controlled settings, variability across cycles underscores challenges in consistently modeling turnout dynamics amid partisan nonresponse disparities.^[32]^[31]

Key Activities and Outputs

Policy Research and Briefs

Data for Progress produces policy briefs, working papers, and reports that combine polling data with analysis to advocate for progressive policy positions, often emphasizing empirical voter support for initiatives such as universal basic income, Medicare for All, and aggressive climate action.^[2]^[35] These outputs are disseminated via their website's blog and dedicated sections, targeting policymakers, campaigns, and activists to demonstrate that progressive causes can garner broad electoral appeal.^[36] For instance, a working paper by researcher Max Kasy compares universal basic income favorably to the Earned Income Tax Credit, arguing that the former avoids incentivizing low-wage labor and better addresses poverty without work requirements.^[37] In foreign policy, Data for Progress has issued briefs highlighting cross-partisan opposition to certain actions, such as Israel's restrictions on aid to Gaza, with surveys showing majorities of voters, including Republicans, favoring U.S. pressure for humanitarian access.^[38] Their climate and energy research includes analyses of state-level policies under federal laws like the Inflation Reduction Act, where a 2025 survey found voters reporting tangible community benefits from clean energy investments, though respondents indicated legislators could expand such efforts further.^[39] Similarly, briefs on LGBTQ+ rights draw from polling to underscore discrimination concerns, noting that over 25% of transgender adults reported feeling unsafe in medical settings due to mistreatment fears.^[40] The New Progressive Agenda Project exemplifies their approach to localized policy research, conducting district-level issue polling to guide campaigns on economic priorities like student debt relief and labor protections, which they frame as having sustained bipartisan backing.^[11] Collaborations, such as with the Student Borrower Protection Center, have produced reports on debt cancellation, revealing majority support across demographics, including older Republicans as outliers in opposition.^[41] These materials prioritize rapid-turnaround data to influence Democratic strategies, though critics note the organization's selective framing to bolster left-leaning outcomes over neutral academic scrutiny.^[12]

Political Advocacy and Engagement

Data for Progress advances progressive causes through data-driven advocacy, including the production of policy memos, message testing, and strategic polling designed to influence electoral outcomes and policymaking. The organization provides guidance to Democratic campaigns and congressional leaders, emphasizing policies such as Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and immigration reform, with research aimed at demonstrating their electoral viability.^[13]^[1] In the political arena, Data for Progress has directly supported progressive candidates and initiatives. During the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, it campaigned for Bernie Sanders, publishing analyses asserting that "progressives control the future of the [Democratic] Party" based on endorsement data and polling trends.^[42] The group launched the Give Smart initiative in 2020 to facilitate small-dollar donations—such as $80 contributions via ActBlue—to eight Democratic state-level candidates, building on prior evaluations of endorsement impacts from the 2018 midterms in partnership with the Future Now Fund.^[43] Its polling efforts have aided progressive electoral wins, including accurate predictions for the 2021 New York City mayoral primary and broader 2020 election forecasting, which it claims positioned it among the most precise pollsters for Democratic campaigns.^[14]^[44] The organization engages policymakers through targeted advocacy projects. In late 2020, the Progressive Cabinet Project released four memos recommending left-leaning appointees for the incoming Biden administration, including Janet Yellen for Treasury Secretary and Deb Haaland for Interior Secretary, all of whom were subsequently confirmed.^[45] Data for Progress collaborates with congressional figures to refine messaging on issues like climate policy, using polls to urge ambitious legislation before Congress and the executive branch.^[46]^[47] Additionally, the Accountable Allies Project equips advocates with datasets to pressure corporations over donations to politicians opposing LGBTQ rights, exemplifying its role in issue-based campaigns.^[48] These efforts extend to broader voter engagement strategies, such as testing viral messaging for low-propensity voters to boost turnout for progressive priorities, as outlined in 2025 analyses.^[49] Operating as a project of the 501(c)(4) Tides Advocacy, Data for Progress leverages its research for non-partisan-appearing influence while aligning with left-wing policy shifts within the Democratic Party.^[1]

Publications and Media Outreach

Data for Progress regularly publishes policy briefs, polling analyses, and reports via its website, emphasizing empirical support for progressive initiatives such as climate action, labor reforms, and economic redistribution.^[2] These outputs typically draw on proprietary surveys to claim broad voter backing for left-leaning policies, with over 100 briefs released since 2018 on topics including electoral dynamics and social issues.^[36] For instance, a 2019 report on the Green New Deal analyzed polling data to assert rising public approval for ambitious environmental measures, influencing early Democratic debates.^[50] Notable recent publications include the "Lines That Connect Us" report, co-authored with environmental groups in 2023, which examined community benefits from transmission infrastructure to advocate for accelerated clean energy deployment.^[51] In December 2024, they issued a post-election analysis highlighting inflation and cost-of-living concerns as dominant voter priorities, based on national surveys conducted throughout the cycle.^[52] Such documents often prioritize data interpretation aligned with organizational goals, stratifying results by demographics to underscore support among working-class and minority voters.^[27] The organization conducts media outreach by disseminating findings to journalists, op-ed writers, and policymakers, securing placements in outlets like The New York Times, Politico, and The Guardian.^[53] President Biden cited their three-year-old polling during a February 2021 call with House Democrats to justify a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package, demonstrating direct policy leverage.^[54] Coverage has included a June 2021 New York Times profile on their mainstreaming within Democratic circles, and 2023 citations in USA Today for transgender rights polling and The Guardian for a study documenting $700 million in fossil fuel donations to U.S. universities from 2010 to 2020.^[12]^[55] CNN referenced their April 2023 analysis on abortion access post-Dobbs, reflecting outreach to shape narratives on judicial impacts.^[53] This strategy amplifies their data in progressive-leaning media ecosystems, though interpretations may reflect inherent advocacy bias.^[34]

Influence, Impact, and Reception

Policy and Electoral Influence

Data for Progress (DFP) has exerted policy influence primarily by conducting polls to demonstrate voter support for progressive initiatives, which have been used to advocate for legislative and executive actions within the Democratic Party. For instance, DFP's polling and strategic input helped shape aspects of President Biden's climate agenda, including pitches to his team on key areas like emissions reductions and green infrastructure, contributing to policies emphasized in the American Jobs Plan.^[56]^[57] Their data on public backing for measures such as child care tax credits and expanded unemployment benefits informed Democratic pushes for social spending, while surveys showing support for ambitious climate action were cited to encourage the Biden administration and Congress to pursue aggressive environmental legislation.^[12] Additionally, DFP's Progressive Cabinet Project recommended nominees aligned with left-wing priorities, resulting in appointments like Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary and Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary under Biden.^[1] DFP's polling also supported the passage of a $250 billion Senate bill for scientific research and development in 2021 by highlighting constituent demand.^[12] In the electoral realm, DFP has bolstered progressive candidates through targeted polling and fundraising efforts rather than formal endorsements. Their surveys during the 2020 New York Democratic primary for Congress showed Jamaal Bowman leading incumbent Eliot Engel, prompting a surge in donations that aided Bowman's upset victory.^[12] DFP campaigned actively for [Bernie Sanders](/page/Bernie Sanders)' 2020 presidential bid, providing data to underscore support for his platform among key demographics.^[1] Through the Give Smart Initiative, DFP raised funds via ActBlue for eight Democratic state-level candidates in 2020, focusing on progressive-aligned races.^[1] Post-election analyses, such as their 2024 report identifying inflation and cost-of-living concerns as top voter issues, have guided Democratic strategists in refining messaging for future cycles.^[52] While DFP's rapid, low-cost polling has made it a resource for Democratic campaigns and primaries, its influence often amplifies narratives favoring left-wing positions, with adoption depending on alignment with party leadership priorities.^[12]

Adoption by Political Figures

Data for Progress's research has been cited by progressive politicians to bolster arguments for expansive left-leaning policies. In April 2021, Senators Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced the first bill to ban fracking nationwide, drawing on Data for Progress polling that indicated public support for such measures; the organization's vice president of policy and strategy, Julian NoiseCat, publicly affirmed that "Our Data for Progress research shows the American public is behind him."^[58] This alignment reflects the group's role in equipping advocates with empirical claims of voter backing for restrictive energy policies.^[59] Mainstream Democratic figures have also referenced Data for Progress findings to justify infrastructure and economic initiatives. Biden administration officials in April 2021 highlighted a Data for Progress survey—conducted with Invest in America—claiming it demonstrated bipartisan support among likely voters for the American Jobs Plan, a $2.3 trillion proposal emphasizing public investment over tax cuts.^[60] The poll, which queried 1,000 registered voters and reported 54% overall approval, was selectively emphasized to portray the plan as broadly popular, though it drew scrutiny for excluding non-likely voters and overstating cross-party consensus.^[60] The organization's polling on debt relief has informed executive actions under President Biden. A September 2022 Data for Progress survey, released alongside the Student Borrower Protection Center, found 55% support for canceling up to $50,000 in federal student debt per borrower among likely voters, coinciding with Biden's announcement of $10,000–$20,000 forgiveness for millions—a policy the group framed as responsive to widespread public demand.^[61] Similarly, Data for Progress data on the Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force recommendations, including expansions in healthcare and worker protections, showed majority Democratic voter approval in surveys from 2020 onward, influencing internal party debates on platform adoption.^[62] On climate policy, Data for Progress has provided polling to Democratic leaders advocating for aggressive federal interventions. The group surveyed voters in battleground states like Wisconsin in 2022, reporting 66% support for the Inflation Reduction Act's clean energy investments, which it used to urge congressional and White House prioritization; this data aligned with Biden's signing of the $369 billion climate package in August 2022.^[63] Critics, however, have noted that such polls often sample demographics predisposed to progressive views, potentially inflating perceived consensus.^[1] Overall, adoption remains concentrated among Democrats, with Data for Progress functioning as a data provider rather than a direct policy architect, its influence amplified through alignment with figures favoring voter persuasion via popularist framing.^[12]

Broader Reception and Critiques of Effectiveness

Data for Progress has received positive reception within Democratic Party circles for its role in shaping policy debates and providing data-driven support for progressive initiatives, with its research influencing legislation such as a $250 billion scientific research bill and the confirmation of Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary.^[12] The organization is frequently cited by White House officials and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, reflecting its integration into mainstream Democratic strategy.^[12] However, segments of the activist left have critiqued Data for Progress for prioritizing establishment influence over radical principles, describing its mainstream embrace as "normie" and indicative of selling out its origins in left-wing polling and advocacy.^[12] Conservative observers and outlets have dismissed its outputs as inherently partisan, given its focus on progressive causes like climate action and LGBTQ rights, though independent ratings assess it as left-center biased with high factual reporting.^[34]^[1] Critiques of its polling effectiveness center on consistent methodological biases favoring Democrats, evidenced by house effects in major elections. In the 2022 midterms, Data for Progress polls showed an average error of 4.4 points and a Republican house effect of +1.8, indicating underestimation of Republican support relative to actual results across 33 polls with 79% call accuracy.^[31] For the 2024 presidential race, its house effect shifted to D+3.2 with an average error of 4.0 points, reflecting overestimation of Democratic performance amid broader polling underestimation of Republicans by approximately 3 points.^[32] These patterns suggest limitations in sampling or weighting that may undermine the reliability of its strategic recommendations for campaigns and policymakers seeking accurate electoral forecasts.^[64] FiveThirtyEight rates the firm at 2.7 stars overall, noting a slight left-leaning bias of +1.4 in its aggregated polls.^[34]

Controversies and Criticisms

Methodological and Bias Concerns

Data for Progress primarily conducts surveys using SMS text-to-web and online web panels, drawing samples from commercial voter files stratified by demographics and geography.^[27] These non-probability methods, while efficient for rapid polling, are susceptible to self-selection bias, as participation depends on respondents' willingness to engage via digital channels, potentially overrepresenting urban, younger, or more politically active individuals who skew toward progressive views.^[65] Independent polling research highlights risks in such opt-in samples, including higher rates of inattentive or fraudulent responses compared to probability-based approaches like random-digit dialing.^[66] Analyses of DFP's election polling reveal a systematic house effect favoring Democrats. In the 2022 midterms, FiveThirtyEight's evaluation showed an average house effect of R+1.8 across 33 polls, meaning DFP's results underestimated Republican performance by approximately 1.8 percentage points relative to actual outcomes.^[31] For the 2024 presidential election, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin calculated a D+3.2 house effect, indicating even stronger Democratic-leaning bias in DFP's national and battleground state surveys.^[32] WPA Intelligence similarly critiqued DFP among pollsters that "missed the mark" by underestimating Republican support, attributing this to methodological shortcomings in capturing shifts among non-college-educated and rural voters.^[33] As an explicitly progressive organization focused on advancing left-wing policies, DFP's polls often frame questions in ways that align with advocacy goals, raising concerns about leading wording or selective emphasis. A September 2024 survey partnered with the climate group CCI, for example, was accused of biasing results toward support for lawsuits against plastics and fossil fuels through targeted sampling and phrasing that highlighted environmental harms without balancing economic trade-offs.^[67] Broader critiques note that such polls may elicit abstract support for progressive concepts (e.g., "climate action") that erodes when specifics like costs or mandates are introduced, as evidenced by contrasts with Gallup's more neutral framing on similar budget proposals.^[68] Bias rating organizations classify DFP as left-leaning, with Media Bias/Fact Check assigning a "Left-Center" rating due to ideological slant in topic selection and interpretation, despite high factual reporting on verifiable data.^[34] AllSides concurs with a "Left" designation, reflecting the firm's origins in supporting Democratic campaigns and its role in narrative-building for progressive causes.^[69] While DFP claims improved accuracy in self-assessments, such as outperforming averages in 2022 Senate and gubernatorial races, these partisan affiliations and methodological choices undermine perceptions of neutrality, particularly in an era of polarized polling where left-leaning firms like DFP systematically diverge from actual electoral results.^[29]

Internal Organizational Issues

In late 2022, Data for Progress faced significant internal turmoil stemming from controversies surrounding its founder and executive director, Sean McElwee. McElwee's public betting activities on the prediction market platform PredictIt, including wagers on political outcomes, drew scrutiny from staff and observers, particularly as they coincided with his consulting work for Sam Bankman-Fried of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX.^[3]^[70] Internal discussions on the organization's Slack channels reflected unease among employees, with some noting McElwee's openness about his betting as a point of concern.^[3] By mid-December 2022, senior leadership ousted McElwee amid the reputational damage from these associations and the broader FTX scandal, which implicated progressive funding networks.^[3]^[71] Danielle Deiseroth was appointed interim executive director to lead the transition, with the organization emphasizing a desire to "put that chapter behind us."^[3] In response, Data for Progress implemented structural changes, including shutting down public Slack channels, introducing new employment agreements that prohibited staff from betting on firm-related topics without authorization, and severing formal ties with its parent organization, Tides Advocacy, to operate independently with an advisory board.^[3] These events highlighted tensions between personal entrepreneurial risks by leadership and the nonprofit's mission-driven image, contributing to efforts to rebuild internal trust and external credibility. No further major internal disputes, such as unionization efforts or workplace lawsuits, have been publicly documented.^[1]

Political and Ethical Critiques

Data for Progress has faced political criticism from both the progressive left and conservative commentators for advancing a partisan agenda under the guise of neutral data analysis. Activists on the further left have accused the organization of "selling out" its radical roots by gaining mainstream influence within the Democratic establishment, particularly through close collaboration with figures like Senator Chuck Schumer and the Biden White House, which they argue dilutes bold progressive demands in favor of incrementalism.^[12] Conversely, conservative critics contend that Data for Progress selectively interprets polling to bolster radical policies such as Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and the abolition of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, thereby pressuring the Democratic Party toward socialism rather than empirical consensus.^[1] Ethically, the organization's ties to Tides Advocacy—a 501(c)(4) entity criticized for opaque "dark money" practices that obscure donor identities and facilitate left-leaning funding pass-throughs—have raised concerns about undue influence and accountability in its research and advocacy.^[1] Tides, which incubates projects like Data for Progress, has encountered broader scrutiny, including lawsuits alleging mismanagement of funds (as in the 2024 Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation case over $33 million) and facilitation of anonymous progressive philanthropy that bypasses transparency requirements.^[72] Internally, ethical lapses culminated in the November 2022 no-confidence vote and departure of co-founder Sean McElwee amid revelations of his associations with disgraced crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried, including allegations of election betting and improper straw donor activities, which undermined the group's claim to data-driven integrity.^[1] Critics have also highlighted instances of potentially manipulative polling, such as surveys with leading questions and omitted context to manufacture public support for litigation against industries like plastics and fossil fuels, funded by entities like the Rockefeller-backed Center for Climate Integrity.^[67]

References

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What is Data for Progress?
Data for Progress (DFP) is a progressive think tank that conducts research, polling, and data analysis to produce strategic insights, inform policymaking.Missing: focus growth history
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https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/6/24/dfp-nyc-primary-polling-retrospective
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Polling The Left Agenda - Data For Progress
We set out to change that, and we commissioned polling on major progressive policies with YouGov Blue. ... The Civis and Data For Progress/Yougov polls did not ...
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The Convergence Among Racial, Gender, and Economic Attitudes ...
In other words, most voters do not divorce matters of racial and economic justice. However, in the case of self-described “moderate” and “liberal” Democrats, we ...
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Political Elites Are More Supportive of Progressive Policies Than the ...
Dec 9, 2021 · Across 10 progressive policies, we find a higher rate of support among elites than likely voters.
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[PDF] DATA FOR PROGRESS
Data for Progress matches other pollsters, even when we are first. DFP and YouGov were the first to test Warren's wealth tax, showing 61 percent support and 21 ...Missing: positions | Show results with:positions<|control11|><|separator|>
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Sean McElwee, An SBF Ally in the Barrel - Puck news
Nov 29, 2022 · Sean McElwee, the ur-connected political operative, is the latest to get singed by the FTX scandal following a no-confidence vote at Data for Progress.
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https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/sam-bankman-fried-legal-troubles-bad-week-data-for-progress
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Decoding Climate Polls with Data for Progress - MCJ Collective
Aug 14, 2023 · Data for Progress produces polling, database messaging, and policy generation for progressive causes, campaigns and candidates. Danielle joined ...
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Danielle Deiseroth - Chief of Staff at the Searchlight Institute - LinkedIn
Data for Progress. 5 years 1 month. Data for Progress Graphic. Executive Director. Data for Progress. May 2023 - Jun 2025 2 years 2 months.
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MCJ AMA: Danielle Deiseroth - Data for Progress - Luma
Aug 24, 2025 · Join us in the MCJ Community Slack for our next MCJ Ask-Me-Anything with Danielle Deiseroth, Executive Director of Data for Progress.
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Our Team - Data For Progress
Ryan (he/him) is the interim executive director at Data for Progress. He joined the team in 2019 and helped build the organization's electoral and polling ...
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Frequently Asked Questions - Tides Advocacy
What is fiscal sponsorship? A fiscal sponsor is a nonprofit organization that provides fiduciary oversight, financial management, and other administrative ...
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Tides Advocacy (The Advocacy Fund) - InfluenceWatch
Fiscal Sponsorship. Besides lobbying, Tides Advocacy helps to incubate other left-wing 501(c)(4) advocacy nonprofits, a process known as “fiscal sponsorship ...
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Data for Progress Methodology
Our sampling frames are generated by selecting records at random from a commercial voter file. We stratify these on personal and regional demographic and ...Missing: growth | Show results with:growth
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https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/2022/1/20/maxdiff-for-message-and-policy-testing
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DFP 2022 Polling Accuracy Report - Data For Progress
Dec 2, 2022 · Our Accuracy. During the 2022 general election cycle, Data for Progress released public polling in key Senate and governor races. We improved ...
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How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century
Apr 19, 2023 · The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections left many Americans wondering whether polling was broken and what, if anything, pollsters might do ...
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The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight
Mar 10, 2023 · Data for Progress, 33, 4.4, 79, R+1.8. Rasmussen Reports, 7, 4.4, 86, R+4.4 ... Polling Accuracy (37) Polling Bias (24). Comments. Latest ...
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How did the polls do in 2024? It's complicated. - Silver Bulletin
Feb 17, 2025 · Data for Progress, 4.0, D+3.2. 0.7. 0.7. 8. Note: Advanced-Plus-Minus describes how each pollster's average error compares to other pollsters' ...
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WPA Intelligence: Who Nailed 2024's Polls—and Who Missed the ...
Jan 16, 2025 · ... polling accuracy—though ... Polls from firms such as CNN, Data for Progress, and The Hill/Emerson consistently overestimated her support.
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Data for Progress - Bias and Credibility - Media Bias/Fact Check
Jun 4, 2024 · These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that ...
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Future Of The Party Report - Data For Progress
A progressive vision for a populist Democratic Party · Get Data for Progress Delivered.Missing: statement | Show results with:statement
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Briefs - Data For Progress
the groups that make or break their electoral support — to see the ...
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Working Papers - Data For Progress
Kasy argues there are a number of reasons why a UBI is preferable to an EITC. First, the EITC and other subsidies for low-wage work cause people to work more ...
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Foreign Policy - Data For Progress
Voters across party lines oppose Israel blocking food and medical aid in Gaza, and want Trump to demand that Israel let aid into Gaza.
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Voters Report Seeing Material Benefits in Their Communities From ...
Aug 11, 2025 · By Grace Adcox. While the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the CHIPS and Science Act marked transformational ...Missing: organization outputs
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LGBTQ+ Rights - Data For Progress
More than 1 in 4 transgender adults have felt unsafe going to the doctor or hospital in the past year due to concerns about discrimination or mistreatment.Missing: research | Show results with:research<|separator|>
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New Report: Broad Support for Action to Cancel Student Debt Holds ...
Jun 16, 2022 · Data for Progress (DfP) and SBPC release both a new report and a tracking poll showing sustained public support for action by Biden to ...Missing: methods | Show results with:methods
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https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/progressives-control-the-future-of-the-party
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Analyzing the Impact of Give Smart and Future Now Fund ...
In the 2018 midterm elections, Future Now Fund (FNF) endorsed 62 candidates across sixlegislative chambers in five states. In addition, Data for Progress's Give ...
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https://www.dataforprogress.org/case-studies/best-in-class-polling-electing-progressives
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https://www.filesforprogress.org/reports/progressive-cabinet-project-report.pdf
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Our Impact - Data For Progress
Data for Progress has used our best-in-class polling to show Congress and the Biden Administration that ambitious climate policy isn't just the right thing to ...
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https://www.dataforprogress.org/case-studies/collaborating-with-leaders-in-congress
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Data For Progress' Accountable Allies Project
Data for Progress empowers advocates with tools to hold companies accountable for donating to the campaigns of politicians enacting anti-LGBTQ and ...Missing: advocacy | Show results with:advocacy
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Want to Reach Low-Engagement Voters? You Need a Message ...
Mar 18, 2025 · Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Executive Director at Data for Progress. Abby Springs March 18, 2025 ...
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A Green New Deal - Data For Progress
Americans also do not see a trade-off between environmental protection and jobs. This is according to a Data For Progress analysis of the American National ...
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[PDF] Lines That Connect Us: Reimagining Transmission Development ...
In this report, researchers from Data for Progress, the World Resources Institute, and the Great. Plains Institute examine the potential for community ...
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[PDF] 2024 Post-Election Report
Dec 1, 2024 · Data for Progress polling has consistently shown that the top issues for voters in this election were inflation and the cost of living.
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Media - Data For Progress
“Roughly 6 in 10 likely voters say the Supreme Court faces a legitimacy crisis, according to new polling from progressive firm Data for Progress. The data, ...
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'We've learned to love the guy': How Biden charmed the left - Politico
Feb 4, 2021 · The think tank, Data for Progress, may not have been in existence when Biden was vice president, but it's become a mainstay for activists ...
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/01/fossil-fuel-companies-donate-millions-us-universities
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Biden's climate plan won praise from progressives. Now he needs ...
Jul 30, 2020 · NoiseCat and other Data for Progress members, including co-founder Sean McElwee, pitched Biden's team on core areas they viewed – with the ...
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How climate became the centerpiece of Biden's economic agenda
Apr 22, 2021 · There's no doubt Biden was influenced by young climate activists ... policy and strategy at Data for Progress, told Vox in an interview.
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Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez Lead First-Ever Bill to Ban ... - Vote Smart
Our Data for Progress research shows the American public is behind him," said Julian Noisecat, Vice President of Policy and Strategy, Data for Progress.<|separator|>
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Progressives Control the Future - Data For Progress
Jun 14, 2020 · By Sean McElwee and Colin McAuliffe · Cohorts of voters tend to get more conservative and Republican as they age.
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Democratic Spin on Bipartisan Support for American Jobs Plan
Apr 19, 2021 · The survey being cited by some Biden administration officials comes from Data for Progress and Invest in America, which listed seven ...
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New Poll Shows Continued, Widespread Support for Action to ...
Just as President Biden announce student debt cancellation plan, new SBPC-Data for Progress poll shows broad public support for action.
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[PDF] VOTERS SUPPORT THE BIDEN-SANDERS TASK FORCE ...
Over the last two years, Data for Progress and YouGov Blue have fielded twenty-five national surveys—totaling over 1,600 questions—to measure public opinion ...Missing: cited | Show results with:cited
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NEW POLL: Wisconsin Voters Strongly Support New Federal ...
Sep 1, 2022 · Evergreen Action and Data for Progress released new polling that shows that two-thirds of Wisconsin voters support the IRA.Missing: figures | Show results with:figures<|separator|>
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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[PDF] Data Quality Metrics for Online Samples - AAPOR
While probability-based panels have become increasingly relied on by researchers as telephone response rates declined, nonprobability panels and other online ...
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Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents
Feb 18, 2020 · A new study by Pew Research Center finds that online polls conducted with widely-used opt-in sources contain small but measurable shares of bogus respondents.Missing: Progress SMS<|control11|><|separator|>
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Recycled: Rockefeller-Backed Group Releases Biased Poll to Push ...
Sep 12, 2024 · CCI partnered with Data for Progress to put out a new poll that claims that respondents support lawsuits against plastics and fossil fuel ...
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U.S. Public Opinion and the $3.5 Trillion Senate Budget Plan
Aug 13, 2021 · But many of the elements on which there is polling appear to be favored by a majority of Americans. The aforementioned Data for Progress poll, ...
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Data for Progress - AllSides
Feedback does not determine ratings, but may trigger deeper review. As of October 2025, people have voted on the AllSides Media Bias Rating for Data for ...
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Sam Bankman-Fried and Sean McElwee's Fateful Alliance
Dec 22, 2022 · Sean McElwee formed a lucrative alliance with SBF. Then his patron went bust and he suffered his own scandal.
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The American Prospect on X: "Sean McElwee, who was fired late ...
Nov 14, 2023 · Sean McElwee, who was fired late last year from Data for Progress and once claimed to invent the phrase "Abolish ICE", is back—this time, ...
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BLM Nonprofit Says Tides Foundation Mismanaged $33 Million (1)
May 7, 2024 · Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation Inc. is suing in California state court its one-time partner, the Tides Foundation, saying the ...