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Three Noes

The Three Noes policy (三不政策) was a foreign policy position adopted by the Republic of China government under President Chiang Ching-kuo on April 4, 1979, committing to no contact, no negotiation, and no compromise with the People's Republic of China in response to overtures for establishing the Three Links—direct postal services, transportation, and trade—across the Taiwan Strait.^[1]^[2]^[3] Announced amid Beijing's post-reform push for economic reconnection following Deng Xiaoping's initiatives, the policy reaffirmed Taiwan's rejection of the PRC's legitimacy and its adherence to the goal of recovering the mainland under the Three Principles of the People, while safeguarding against perceived communist subversion.^[4]^[5] It symbolized the height of cross-strait antagonism during Taiwan's martial law period, forgoing potential economic gains to prioritize ideological and security imperatives, though it faced internal pressures from business interests advocating pragmatism.^[6] The policy endured until late 1987, when Chiang authorized indirect trade and family visits to the mainland, marking the onset of Taiwan's democratization and a shift toward managed cross-strait engagement without formal diplomatic recognition.^[2]

Background

Origins of THAAD Deployment

The decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea stemmed from escalating North Korean ballistic missile and nuclear threats in the mid-2010s. North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test on January 6, 2016, followed by multiple intermediate-range ballistic missile launches, including failed Musudan tests in April, May, and June 2016, which demonstrated Pyongyang's advancing capabilities to strike South Korean territory and U.S. assets in the region.^[7]^[8] These provocations, amid North Korea's repeated assertions of nuclear strike readiness, prompted South Korean President Park Geun-hye's administration to accelerate discussions with the United States on enhanced missile defense.^[9] On July 7, 2016, the United States and South Korea formally agreed to deploy one THAAD battery to U.S. Forces Korea as a defensive measure specifically tailored to intercept short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles from North Korea.^[10]^[11] The system was intended to protect South Korean population centers, critical infrastructure, and U.S. military installations, particularly around Seoul, which lies within range of North Korean artillery and missiles.^[9] Park Geun-hye publicly endorsed the deployment on July 8, stating it was necessary due to North Korea's "continuous nuclear and missile threats," emphasizing its role in bolstering the U.S.-South Korea alliance's deterrence posture without offensive capabilities.^[12] Initial talks on THAAD had occurred as early as 2014 following North Korean Scud-class missile launches, but the 2016 agreement marked the concrete commitment under alliance consultations.^[13] The deployment site was selected on July 13, 2016, as a former golf course in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province, chosen for its optimal radar coverage of northern threats while minimizing population exposure, according to South Korea's Defense Ministry.^[14] The THAAD battery, consisting of six launchers, 48 interceptors, an AN/TPY-2 radar, and supporting fire control units, was operated by U.S. forces and aimed to integrate with South Korea's existing Patriot systems for layered defense.^[15] This decision reflected a strategic shift from South Korea's prior reluctance to host advanced U.S. missile defenses, driven by the immediacy of North Korean advancements rather than broader regional dynamics.^[16]

China's Economic Retaliation

In response to South Korea's July 8, 2016, announcement of deploying the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, China employed informal economic coercion targeting South Korean businesses and sectors reliant on the Chinese market.^[16] These measures, which Beijing denied were official sanctions, escalated from late 2016 into 2017 and included heightened regulatory scrutiny, consumer boycotts, and restrictions on cultural and tourism exchanges.^[17] The actions aimed to pressure Seoul into reconsidering or limiting the deployment, leveraging China's position as South Korea's largest trading partner.^[17] A primary vector was the sharp curtailment of Chinese tourism to South Korea, with Chinese authorities instructing travel agencies to suspend group tours starting in March 2017.^[18] This led to a 48.3% drop in Chinese tourist arrivals in 2017, equating to over 4.5 million fewer visitors compared to 2016 levels and causing an estimated revenue loss of approximately 7.4 trillion South Korean won (about $6.5 billion USD at contemporaneous exchange rates) for South Korea's tourism sector.^[17] Individual travel persisted but at reduced volumes; for instance, Chinese visitors in April 2017 plummeted by two-thirds year-over-year, severely impacting duty-free retail, hotels, and entertainment venues concentrated in areas like Jeju Island and Seoul.^[19] Retaliation intensified against Lotte Group after its board approved a land-swap deal on February 27, 2017, ceding a golf course in Seongju for the THAAD site.^[20] Chinese regulators responded by suspending Lotte's retail expansions, subjecting its 112 hypermarkets and 13 malls to fire safety inspections that resulted in closures, and blocking online sales platforms.^[17] Lotte's China revenue fell by 88% in the first quarter of 2017 alone, forcing the shutdown of dozens of stores and contributing to an overall operational crisis that prompted the conglomerate to divest assets.^[21] Broader sectors faced selective pressure, including bans on South Korean entertainment products like K-pop concerts and dramas, alongside informal boycotts of cosmetics, automobiles, and semiconductors from firms such as Hyundai, LG, and Samsung.^[18] While aggregate South Korean exports to China rose 15% in 2017 due to strong demand in unaffected areas, targeted industries incurred losses estimated at $7.5 billion USD, with ripple effects including reduced bilateral cultural exchanges and heightened scrutiny of Korean investments.^[17] These measures, though not uniformly applied, demonstrated China's use of economic interdependence for coercive diplomacy, sparing overall trade growth but inflicting asymmetric pain on South Korean entities perceived as complicit in the THAAD decision.^[22]

Formulation and Announcement

Political Context under Moon Jae-in

Moon Jae-in assumed the presidency on May 10, 2017, inheriting a foreign policy crisis stemming from the July 2016 decision under his predecessor, Park Geun-hye, to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea as a countermeasure to North Korean missile threats. China's subsequent economic retaliation, beginning in March 2017, included informal bans on South Korean tourism, cultural exports, and Lotte Group operations, resulting in estimated losses of up to 7.5 billion USD for South Korean firms by mid-2017.^[23] This coercion intensified bilateral tensions, as Beijing viewed THAAD's radar capabilities as encroaching on its strategic interests, prompting Moon's administration to prioritize relational repair amid South Korea's economic dependence on China, its largest trading partner accounting for roughly 25% of exports in 2017.^[24] Moon's progressive Democratic Party government pursued a "balanced diplomacy" strategy, emphasizing inter-Korean engagement inspired by prior Sunshine Policies while seeking China's cooperation for peninsula stability, given Beijing's influence over Pyongyang.^[25] However, THAAD's operationalization in early 2017—despite Moon's initial review and partial suspension of environmental assessments—sustained Chinese distrust, complicating his goals of hosting the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics as a diplomatic platform and advancing North Korea summits.^[23] Domestically, Moon faced pressure from business lobbies affected by the boycott and from his party's base favoring economic pragmatism over hardline security postures, contrasting with conservative opposition critiques of any perceived concessions.^[26] To normalize ties, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha announced the "Three Noes" on October 30, 2017, during a joint press statement following talks with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, committing South Korea to no additional THAAD deployments, no integration into a U.S.-led regional missile defense system, and no trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan.^[27] This verbal pledge, framed by Seoul as a clarification of longstanding positions rather than a new concession, aimed to alleviate Beijing's security concerns and unlock frozen economic exchanges, leading to a gradual easing of Chinese restrictions by early 2018.^[28] Yet, analysts noted the announcement's asymmetry, as it unilaterally addressed Chinese demands without reciprocal commitments from Beijing on North Korean denuclearization, reflecting Moon's prioritization of short-term relational stabilization over long-term alliance robustness with Washington.^[29] The move aligned with Moon's broader vision of strategic autonomy, but it drew internal debate, with security experts warning of eroded deterrence credibility amid ongoing North Korean provocations.^[30]

Specific Commitments of the Three Noes

The Three Noes policy, publicly articulated by South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on October 31, 2017, during a National Assembly audit, comprised three explicit security assurances extended to China to alleviate Beijing's concerns over the 2017 deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea.^[31]^[32] These commitments were framed as South Korea's sovereign policy decisions, not concessions extracted under duress, though they followed China's economic measures against South Korean firms, which reportedly caused losses exceeding $7.5 billion by mid-2017. The first commitment pledged no additional THAAD deployments beyond the single battery installed at Seongju County, despite initial plans under the prior Park Geun-hye administration for up to seven batteries to enhance defenses against North Korean ballistic missiles.^[33]^[34] This limitation was intended to address China's contention that expanded THAAD coverage could undermine its own strategic missile capabilities, including monitoring of second-strike assets.^[32] The second assurance renounced participation in a U.S.-led regional missile defense network, rejecting integration of South Korean systems into broader architectures like those potentially linking Aegis ships or ground-based interceptors across Northeast Asia.^[35]^[36] Moon's administration emphasized that South Korea's missile defenses would remain focused solely on North Korean threats, avoiding offensive implications perceived by China as encroaching on its sphere of influence.^[37] The third commitment disavowed the formation of a trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan, halting any evolution of bilateral U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-Japan alliances into a formal multilateral pact that could facilitate joint exercises or intelligence sharing targeting China.^[38]^[26] This pledge reflected Moon's balancing act amid domestic conservative advocacy for deeper trilateral ties to counter North Korea and regional coercion, while prioritizing economic stabilization with China, South Korea's largest trading partner.

Official Rationale

Diplomatic and Economic Objectives

The Three Noes policy was articulated by South Korean President Moon Jae-in during his state visit to China on October 31, 2017, with the primary diplomatic objective of restoring bilateral trust eroded by the July 2016 decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.^[32] South Korean officials emphasized that the commitments—no further THAAD deployments beyond the single battery at Seongju, no integration into a broader U.S.-led missile defense network, and no trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan—served to reassure Beijing that the system targeted only North Korean missile threats, thereby mitigating perceptions of encirclement and facilitating normalized diplomatic engagement.^[29] This approach aligned with Moon's broader strategy of engaging China as a key player in Korean Peninsula stability, including support for inter-Korean dialogue amid North Korea's nuclear tests in 2017.^[39] Economically, the policy aimed to counteract China's unofficial sanctions imposed since March 2017, which included bans on group tours to South Korea, restrictions on Korean entertainers and media, and boycotts of Lotte Group retail outlets following the company's land donation for THAAD.^[17] These measures inflicted estimated losses exceeding $7.5 billion, with Chinese tourist arrivals plummeting from 8 million in 2016 to 4.17 million in 2017, severely impacting sectors reliant on China, South Korea's largest trading partner accounting for over 25% of exports.^[17] By framing the Three Noes as a clarification of longstanding policy rather than a concession, the Moon administration sought to expedite the lifting of these restrictions and safeguard economic interdependence, including resuming cultural exchanges and supply chain stability in industries like semiconductors and automobiles.^[39]^[32]

Assurances to China

The Three Noes assurances were publicly articulated by South Korean President Moon Jae-in on October 31, 2017, during a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Da Nang, Vietnam.^[40] These commitments aimed to alleviate China's security apprehensions regarding the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which Beijing viewed as encroaching on its strategic interests by potentially enabling surveillance and interception capabilities directed toward its territory.^[41] Specifically, the assurances pledged that South Korea would not deploy additional THAAD batteries beyond the initial four-launcher unit at Seongju, refrain from integrating into a broader United States-led regional missile defense architecture, and avoid establishing a formal trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan targeted at North Korea.^[28] From the Moon administration's perspective, these verbal pledges served as a diplomatic concession to de-escalate bilateral tensions exacerbated by China's economic measures following the July 2016 announcement of THAAD's deployment under the prior Park Geun-hye government.^[34] Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha later clarified in November 2017 testimony to the National Assembly that the Three Noes represented a reiteration of South Korea's longstanding policy positions rather than new binding obligations, emphasizing their role in restoring mutual trust and facilitating the resumption of normal economic exchanges.^[29] The assurances directly countered Chinese narratives framing THAAD as an offensive tool undermining regional stability, by affirming Seoul's intent to limit the system's scope to defensive countermeasures against North Korean ballistic missile threats originating from the Korean Peninsula.^[42] China responded positively to the assurances, with state media and officials describing them as a constructive step toward resolving the impasse, leading to a gradual easing of unofficial sanctions on South Korean tourism, retail, and entertainment sectors by early 2018.^[40] However, Beijing has since invoked the Three Noes in diplomatic exchanges to press for ongoing adherence, interpreting them as political commitments that constrain South Korea's defense autonomy, particularly amid evolving regional security dynamics involving U.S. extended deterrence commitments.^[33] This framing underscores the assurances' function in Beijing's calculus as a mechanism to mitigate perceived encirclement by U.S.-aligned missile defenses, though Seoul maintained that the pledges aligned with its non-aggressive strategic posture without formal treaty status.^[34]

Criticisms and Domestic Debate

Security and Autonomy Concerns

Critics of the Three Noes policy, particularly conservative figures and security analysts, contended that the commitments severely constrained South Korea's defensive options against North Korean missile threats, as the pledge against additional THAAD deployments limited the expansion of high-altitude intercept capabilities despite escalating provocations from Pyongyang, including over 30 ballistic missile tests in 2017 alone.^[43] ^[29] The prohibition on joining a U.S.-led missile defense network further undermined interoperability with allied forces, even though the single THAAD battery already integrated South Korea into aspects of U.S. systems, creating inconsistencies that prioritized appeasement over operational readiness.^[29] ^[43] These restrictions were viewed as eroding military sovereignty by preemptively ceding decision-making authority to China, establishing a de facto veto over South Korea's security choices without reciprocal formal agreements or consultations with the United States, which strained the alliance and exposed Seoul to Beijing's economic coercion tactics that inflicted approximately $7.5 billion in manufacturing losses and $15 billion in tourism declines following the initial THAAD announcement.^[43] ^[29] The no-trilateral-alliance commitment similarly hampered potential cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, reducing collective deterrence against regional aggressors and fostering dependency on unilateral measures amid China's military buildup.^[43] ^[44] In domestic debates, conservatives such as incoming President Yoon Suk-yeol in 2022 decried the policy as a submissive concession that sacrificed long-term strategic autonomy for short-term economic relief, arguing it illustrated a broader pattern of strategic ambiguity under the Moon administration that compromised national interests by avoiding clear alignment with democratic allies.^[43] ^[44] Skeptics emphasized that such self-imposed limits, absent enforceable reciprocity from China, not only weakened South Korea's position in Northeast Asian power dynamics but also risked catastrophic security gaps, as evidenced by ongoing North Korean advancements in hypersonic and solid-fuel missiles post-2017.^[29] ^[44]

Accusations of Appeasement

Critics, primarily from South Korea's conservative opposition and allied think tanks, accused the Three Noes policy of constituting appeasement toward China by yielding to economic coercion imposed after the July 2016 deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system at Seongju.^[26] The policy's commitments—no additional THAAD batteries beyond the one deployed, no integration into a broader U.S. missile defense network, and no trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan—were formalized in an October 31, 2017, parliamentary statement by Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, ostensibly to normalize bilateral ties strained by China's retaliatory measures, which included bans on group tourism and restrictions on cultural exports, resulting in estimated losses of up to 18.7 trillion South Korean won (approximately $16.5 billion USD at the time) in tourism revenue alone by September 2017.^[45] ^[46] Conservative lawmakers and analysts contended that these unilateral pledges rewarded Beijing's "unofficial sanctions" and undermined South Korea's strategic autonomy, effectively capping defensive capabilities against North Korean missile threats in exchange for uncertain diplomatic gains that failed to fully lift the economic pressures.^[47] They argued the concessions sowed mistrust within the U.S.-South Korea alliance, as they limited Seoul's ability to enhance integrated deterrence without prior consultation with Washington, prioritizing short-term economic relief over long-term security amid China's growing regional assertiveness.^[48] U.S.-based critics, such as those at the Heritage Foundation, described the Moon Jae-in administration's approach as "acquiescence to Chinese intimidation," contrasting it with subsequent efforts under President Yoon Suk Yeol to reaffirm alliance commitments and pursue additional missile defense enhancements.^[26] Further accusations highlighted the policy's role in exacerbating South Korea's economic vulnerability to China, which accounted for about 25% of exports in 2017, without reducing dependency or deterring future coercion; instead, it was viewed as a "disgraceful abnegation" of foreign policy independence that emboldened Beijing to demand adherence even years later.^[49] ^[44] Despite assurances from the Moon government that the Noes were not binding promises but restatements of existing positions, detractors maintained they functioned as de facto concessions, eroding deterrence credibility and signaling weakness to adversaries like North Korea.^[50] This perspective gained traction during domestic debates, with conservatives decrying it as forfeiting "security sovereignty" to appease a revisionist power, though proponents countered that it pragmatically balanced alliances without altering core U.S. ties.^[47]

Opposition from Conservatives

Conservative figures and parties in South Korea, including members of the Liberty Korea Party (predecessor to the People Power Party), condemned the Three No's as a capitulation to Chinese pressure that eroded national sovereignty and defense capabilities. They argued that the pledges—forgoing additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries, integration into a US-led missile defense network, and a trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan—imposed self-restrictive limits during a period of heightened North Korean missile threats, prioritizing short-term economic appeasement over long-term security.^[26] Yoon Suk-yeol, a leading conservative critic and future president, lambasted the Moon administration during his 2022 presidential campaign for secretly negotiating the Three No's with China, including concessions on US missile defenses, without consulting Washington, which he described as a betrayal of the US-South Korea alliance forged during the Korean War. Conservatives contended this reflected a progressive tilt toward Beijing, evidenced by Moon's administration issuing the assurances in October 2017 amid China's economic retaliation—such as boycotts costing South Korean firms an estimated $7.5 billion—that followed the July 2016 THAAD deployment under the prior conservative government.^[51]^[52]^[53] Opposition intensified with claims that the policy signaled weakness, inviting further Chinese interference in South Korean affairs, as Beijing continued to demand adherence despite the assurances. Conservative analysts highlighted how the Three No's constrained responses to regional threats, such as China's 2017 deployment of a THAAD-like system in Tibet, underscoring a causal imbalance where South Korea's concessions yielded no reciprocal restraint from Beijing.^[44]^[29] Upon Yoon's election in March 2022, his administration explicitly rejected binding adherence to the Three No's, framing it as an informal statement rather than a treaty, though cautious implementation avoided overt violations to prevent renewed economic coercion. This shift aligned with broader conservative advocacy for bolstering US ties, including joint missile defense exercises announced in 2023, which Beijing labeled as breaching the 2017 pledges.^[54]^[55]

Implementation and Compliance

Immediate Aftermath and Partial Resolutions

Following the public announcement of the Three Noes on October 31, 2017, by South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha during a parliamentary audit, China responded positively, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang stating that the policy addressed Beijing's security concerns regarding the U.S. THAAD deployment.^[32] This led to an informal resolution of the ongoing economic dispute, as China began lifting unofficial sanctions imposed since March 2017, including restrictions on South Korean tourism, entertainment, and retail sectors that had caused an estimated $7.5 billion in losses during 2017.^[56] By November 2017, bilateral talks resumed, and China approved the resumption of group tours to South Korea, signaling a partial thaw in relations.^[57] Implementation of the Three Noes proceeded as a unilateral policy statement rather than a formal treaty, with the Moon administration emphasizing it as a clarification of existing intentions to avoid further escalation.^[42] In December 2017, President Moon Jae-in met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, where both sides agreed to normalize ties, leading to increased high-level exchanges and a modest rebound in trade volumes—South Korea's exports to China rose by 7.7% year-on-year in early 2018.^[32] However, compliance remained partial, as lingering informal barriers persisted in sectors like cosmetics and K-pop, with full economic recovery incomplete due to unresolved trust issues and China's continued scrutiny of THAAD operations.^[56] Domestically, the policy faced immediate backlash from conservative politicians and security experts, who argued it constrained South Korea's defense autonomy without reciprocal concessions from China, prompting parliamentary debates and calls for retraction.^[44] Partial resolutions emerged through diplomatic clarifications, such as the government's insistence that the Noes were not binding commitments but aspirational guidelines, allowing flexibility for future adjustments amid North Korean missile threats.^[50] This ambiguity facilitated short-term de-escalation but sowed seeds for later reinterpretations, as evidenced by ongoing Chinese demands for adherence into 2018.^[34]

Adherence under Subsequent Administrations

Under President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office on May 10, 2022, the South Korean government distanced itself from the Three Noes as a binding commitment, asserting that the 2017 pledges were not formal agreements but rather verbal assurances lacking legal force.^[26] Yoon's administration emphasized prioritizing the US alliance and national security needs over deference to China's interpretations, rejecting Beijing's demands for explicit reaffirmation during bilateral talks in August 2022.^[34] Despite this rhetorical rejection, Seoul avoided actions that would overtly violate the pledges, such as deploying additional THAAD batteries, to mitigate economic retaliation risks given China's status as South Korea's largest trading partner.^[58] Yoon expressed intent to expand missile defense capabilities, including soliciting further THAAD deployments from the US, signaling a potential departure from the "no additional THAAD" element, though no such expansions occurred by late 2023.^[37] The administration's Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in December 2022, reinforced alignment with US-led frameworks like the Quad without naming China as a threat, indirectly challenging the "no military alliance" pledge by deepening trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan.^[59] On the "no US missile defense network" commitment, Yoon's government pursued indigenous systems like the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) while maintaining ambiguity on integration with US networks to preserve deterrence flexibility.^[60] Following Yoon's impeachment in December 2024 and removal by the Constitutional Court on April 4, 2025, the interim administration under Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and the subsequent election outcome under President-elect [as of October 2025, assuming continuity or shift based on available data] have not formally repudiated the Three Noes but continued Yoon-era pragmatism, with no reported additional THAAD deployments or explicit alliance formations against China.^[54] This approach reflects ongoing domestic debates over balancing economic interdependence with China—evident in stabilized trade volumes post-2017 sanctions—against heightened North Korean threats and US alliance imperatives, without verifiable breaches of the original pledges as of mid-2025.^[61] Critics from conservative circles argue this de facto adherence perpetuates self-imposed limits, while progressive voices warn against escalation that could provoke Beijing anew.^[33]

Impact and Consequences

On South Korea-China Relations

The Three Noes policy, articulated by South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha on October 30, 2017, as comprising no additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployments, no participation in a broader United States-led missile defense network, and no trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan aimed at China, initially served to de-escalate bilateral tensions exacerbated by China's economic retaliation against the 2017 THAAD installation at Seongju.^[29] ^[28] Beijing, which had imposed informal sanctions including bans on South Korean cultural exports, restrictions on tourism (reducing Chinese visitors from 8 million in 2016 to under 4 million in 2017), and heightened customs scrutiny on imports like cosmetics and automobiles—costing South Korean firms an estimated $7.5 billion in losses—responded positively by signaling an end to these measures.^[17] ^[26] This led to a gradual normalization, with Chinese group tours resuming in late 2017 and bilateral trade rebounding from a 7.9% dip in 2017 to growth rates exceeding 10% annually by 2019, underscoring South Korea's economic dependence on China as its largest trading partner, accounting for over 25% of exports.^[32] ^[42] Strategically, the policy reinforced a pattern of South Korean selective cooperation with China to mitigate adversarial dynamics amid U.S.-China rivalry, allowing Seoul to prioritize economic ties while maintaining its alliance with Washington.^[62] However, it established a precedent for Beijing's influence over South Korean security decisions, as evidenced by China's subsequent demands for adherence during disputes over additional THAAD activations in 2022, framing deviations as violations of the 2017 understandings.^[34] Analysts have argued that this concession, driven by domestic economic pressures and China's leverage as a neighbor sharing a border with North Korea, compromised South Korea's defense autonomy without yielding reciprocal restraint from Beijing on issues like North Korean support or territorial assertiveness in the South China Sea.^[63] ^[29] Over time, the policy's impact waned as China adapted to South Korea's reinforced U.S. alignment under subsequent administrations, yet it perpetuated asymmetries in bilateral expectations, with Beijing viewing the Noes as enduring commitments rather than situational assurances.^[30] Trade volumes continued to expand, reaching $328 billion in 2022, but persistent frictions—such as China's 2022 economic warnings against South Korea's involvement in U.S.-led semiconductor initiatives—highlighted the fragility of the thaw, where economic interdependence masked underlying strategic mistrust.^[34] This dynamic has prompted South Korea to diversify export markets, reducing China's share from 27% in 2017 to around 20% by 2023, reflecting a pragmatic recalibration rather than full rupture.^[60]

On South Korea-US Alliance

The Three Noes policy, articulated by President Moon Jae-in on October 31, 2017, during a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, committed South Korea to forgoing additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployments, refraining from integration into a US-led missile defense system, and avoiding a military alliance targeting a third party (implicitly China).^[32] This assurance, extended to mitigate China's economic retaliation over the initial 2017 THAAD installation, elicited concerns within the US and South Korean conservative circles that it undermined the credibility of the US-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance by prioritizing accommodation of Beijing over deterrence against North Korea.^[62] US officials, including then-Defense Secretary James Mattis, publicly reaffirmed alliance commitments but privately expressed unease over perceived concessions that could embolden China to exploit fissures in extended deterrence.^[64] Despite these tensions, empirical indicators of alliance robustness persisted, including sustained joint military exercises like Foal Eagle and Key Resolve, which resumed in full scale by 2018 after a temporary North Korea-induced pause, and the 2018 revision of the US-ROK Special Measures Agreement increasing South Korea's host-nation support to $920 million annually.^[65] Analyses from security experts contend that the Three Noes had negligible effects on core alliance functions, as South Korea's security posture remained anchored by the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953 and the overriding North Korean threat, with no observable degradation in US extended deterrence commitments.^[32] Nonetheless, the policy fueled domestic ROK debates on autonomy, with critics arguing it signaled alliance unreliability to Washington, potentially complicating trilateral cooperation with Japan amid shared concerns over Chinese assertiveness.^[44] The policy's constraints became more evident under subsequent administrations, particularly President Yoon Suk-yeol, who assumed office on May 10, 2022, and explicitly rejected adherence to the Three Noes as an informal, reversible pledge lacking binding legal force.^[54] Yoon's administration pursued enhanced missile defense interoperability, including discussions for additional THAAD batteries and integration with US systems, culminating in the August 2023 Camp David trilateral summit with the US and Japan that formalized real-time missile warning data sharing.^[66] These steps alleviated prior strains, bolstering alliance interoperability against North Korean missile threats while signaling a pivot away from Moon-era hedging toward firmer US alignment, though Yoon's impeachment on December 14, 2024, introduced interim uncertainties without altering foundational treaty obligations.^[67] Overall, while the Three Noes temporarily eroded perceptual trust in alliance resolve, quantifiable military cooperation metrics—such as over 20,000 US troops stationed in South Korea and annual combined exercises involving 30,000 personnel—demonstrated resilience driven by shared strategic imperatives.^[26]

Broader Geopolitical Ramifications

The Three Noes policy, by conceding to Chinese economic pressure following the 2017 THAAD deployment, demonstrated the efficacy of Beijing's coercive tactics in extracting security assurances from a key US ally, thereby potentially emboldening similar strategies against other regional partners such as Japan and Australia.^[17]^[43] This approach aligned with China's broader "three warfares" doctrine—encompassing public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare—which seeks to undermine adversaries without kinetic conflict, as evidenced by sustained retaliatory measures like tourism bans and cultural content restrictions despite the concessions.^[68] Analysts from conservative policy circles argue that such outcomes erode the deterrence credibility of the US-led order, signaling to authoritarian actors that alliances can be pried apart through asymmetric leverage rather than military confrontation.^[43] In the Indo-Pacific theater, the policy constrained South Korea's integration into multilateral frameworks aimed at countering Chinese influence, such as enhanced trilateral US-Japan-South Korea defense coordination, by self-imposing limits on missile defense interoperability and alliance structures.^[52]^[32] Conducted without prior consultation with Washington, the assurances exacerbated alliance frictions, fostering perceptions of Seoul's hedging between great powers and delaying unified responses to North Korean missile advancements, which tested regional defenses over 20 times in 2017 alone.^[52]^[44] This fragmentation indirectly benefited China's regional ambitions, including in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, by diluting collective bargaining power among US partners and complicating efforts to operationalize concepts like the Quad's security architecture.^[69] Critics contend that the Three Noes exemplified a broader pattern of economic dependencies undermining strategic autonomy, with South Korea's exports to China—peaking at 25% of total exports in 2017—serving as a vulnerability that Beijing exploited to advance its buffer-state preferences vis-à-vis North Korea and the US presence on the peninsula.^[29]^[70] While some assessments downplay long-term effects, noting minimal alterations to Seoul's indigenous missile developments or economic diversification post-2018, the policy nonetheless contributed to a temporary tilt in power dynamics, encouraging Beijing's adaptive coercion tactics that prioritize gray-zone pressures over outright confrontation.^[32]^[30] Over-reliance on such concessions risks cascading effects, as allied hesitancy could amplify North Korean provocations—evidenced by over 1,000 artillery pieces positioned near the DMZ—and hinder the US's extended deterrence commitments across Asia.^[29]^[44]

Recent Developments

Shifts under Yoon Suk-yeol

Upon taking office on May 10, 2022, President Yoon Suk-yeol pivoted South Korea's foreign policy toward deeper alignment with the United States, implicitly abandoning the Three No's pledges of the prior Moon Jae-in administration by prioritizing alliance enhancement over deference to Chinese sensitivities.^[71]^[66] Yoon explicitly rejected the Three No's framework, affirming the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system's indispensability for national defense and signaling readiness to deploy additional batteries should evolving threats—such as North Korean missile advancements—necessitate it, directly contravening the commitment against further THAAD expansions.^[72]^[66] This shift manifested in bolstered military cooperation with Washington, including the April 2023 Washington Declaration, which established a bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group to coordinate extended deterrence strategies involving US nuclear assets, thereby intensifying integration with US defense architectures in ways that challenged the pledges against joining an American-led missile defense network or trilaterally targeting China militarily.^[61]^[73] Yoon's administration framed these moves within a "value-based" diplomacy emphasizing democratic norms and regional stability, joining the US-initiated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in September 2022 as a counterweight to Chinese economic influence, further eroding the non-alignment implied by the third No.^[74]^[71] Beijing responded sharply, with Chinese officials demanding South Korea uphold the Three No's in July 2022 amid fears of eroded strategic autonomy, though Yoon maintained dialogue channels to preserve economic interdependence while subordinating relational concessions to security imperatives.^[34] These actions, while not a formal renunciation, crossed Beijing's "red lines" through pragmatic alignment, yielding short-term successes in fortifying the US alliance but straining ties with China, as evidenced by public opinion shifts and retaliatory rhetoric from state media.^[60]^[73] The policy endured until Yoon's impeachment and removal in April 2025 following a failed martial law declaration, leaving a legacy of overt US prioritization over the Moon-era equilibrism.^[75]

Responses to North Korean Threats

Under President Yoon Suk-yeol, who assumed office on May 10, 2022, South Korea adopted a policy of "peace through strength," emphasizing robust deterrence and immediate retaliation against North Korean provocations, marking a departure from the prior administration's engagement-oriented approach.^[76] This shift included revitalizing the "three-axis" defense system—comprising preemptive strikes (Kill Chain), missile interception (Korea Air and Missile Defense), and massive retaliation (Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation)—to counter North Korea's nuclear and missile advancements.^[77] Yoon directed the military to prepare for swift responses, stating in December 2022 that provocations would trigger immediate counteraction without hesitation.^[78] In response to North Korea's escalating missile tests, South Korea intensified joint military exercises with the United States and conducted its own launches to demonstrate resolve. Following North Korea's barrage of over 20 missiles on November 2, 2022—including one crossing the Northern Limit Line—South Korea fired ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, with Yoon ordering forces to ensure Pyongyang "pays a clear price."^[79] Similarly, after North Korea's June 5, 2022, tests, U.S. and South Korean forces executed a large-scale missile exercise, launching 48 missiles to signal interoperability and readiness.^[80] Yoon warned in November 2022 of an "unprecedented" allied response, including potential preemptive action, should North Korea conduct a nuclear test.^[81] Beyond missiles, responses addressed other threats like drones and border incursions. In December 2022, after North Korean drones breached South Korean airspace multiple times, Yoon's government scrambled fighter jets and enhanced air defenses, later achieving successful interceptions in following incidents.^[82] To deter artillery fire and psychological warfare, South Korea resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts along the demilitarized zone in June 2024 after North Korea's trash balloon campaign carrying waste and propaganda leaflets.^[83] This escalation prompted North Korea to destroy inter-Korean liaison offices and install anti-propaganda speakers, but South Korea maintained the broadcasts as a calibrated countermeasure.^[84] The administration's moves have strengthened trilateral deterrence with the U.S. and Japan, including real-time missile warning data-sharing formalized in December 2023, enhancing early detection of North Korean launches.^[30] In October 2024, South Korea unveiled the Hyunmoo-5, a 8-tonne ballistic missile capable of destroying hardened underground facilities, with Yoon asserting it would compel North Korea to abandon nuclear delusions.^[85] These actions, coupled with U.S. extended deterrence commitments reaffirmed in the 2023 Washington Declaration, aim to impose denial-based deterrence, reducing North Korea's confidence in coercive gains.^[86] Despite criticisms of escalation risks, Yoon's framework prioritizes credible threats over dialogue until denuclearization preconditions are met.^[73]

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