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Abacus Data

Abacus Data is a private Canadian firm specializing in market research and public opinion polling, founded in 2010 by David Coletto and headquartered in Ottawa, Ontario.^[1]^[2] The company operates as a full-service agency offering strategic insights through methods such as surveys, focus groups, omnibus polling, and multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) modeling for precise electoral projections.^[3]^[4] With additional offices in Toronto and Halifax, Abacus Data serves clients including major media outlets and corporations, emphasizing data-driven decision-making in political, policy, and consumer contexts.^[5] It maintains compliance with industry standards, including accreditation by the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and adherence to ESOMAR and ISO 20252:2019 protocols.^[6] Notable for its frequent national polls tracking Canadian political sentiments, the firm has established itself as a key player in public affairs research, often collaborating with entities like the Toronto Star as their official pollster.^[7]^[8]

Company Overview

Founding and Operations

Abacus Data was founded on July 3, 2010, by David Coletto, who serves as its chair and chief executive officer, initially operating as a two-person firm based in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.^[9]^[10] The company emerged from Coletto's prior experience in public opinion research, with a focus on delivering strategic polling and analysis for political parties, public policy, and market insights, emphasizing innovative approaches to data collection and interpretation.^[11] From its inception, Abacus Data prioritized high-quality, proprietary research methods over traditional polling, aiming to provide clients with actionable intelligence through tools such as custom surveys and predictive modeling.^[9] The firm expanded rapidly, establishing a second office in Toronto to support broader operations across Canada, and now employs a team dedicated to full-service market research, including public opinion tracking, voter intention studies, and consumer behavior analysis.^[12] Its headquarters remain in Ottawa, facilitating close ties to federal political and policy circles.^[2] Abacus Data's operational model centers on integrating empirical data with first-principles-driven forecasting, such as its Abacus Data MRP system for granular electoral projections, while maintaining independence from partisan affiliations to ensure methodological rigor.^[3] The company conducts regular national and regional polls, snap surveys for real-time insights, and customized research for corporate and governmental clients, positioning it as one of Canada's most influential research agencies in competitive electoral and policy environments.^[11]

Business Model and Services

Abacus Data operates as a private, full-service market and public opinion research firm, deriving revenue primarily from fee-based contracts for custom research projects, proprietary polling tools, and strategic advisory services provided to clients in politics, advocacy, corporate marketing, and media.^[3]^[13] The firm's model emphasizes data-driven insights tailored to client needs, combining quantitative polling with qualitative analysis to inform decision-making in competitive environments, such as elections and public policy campaigns.^[14] This approach positions Abacus Data as a value-added partner rather than a commoditized data provider, focusing on actionable strategies derived from unmet audience needs.^[3] Core services include quantitative research via custom online and telephone surveys, as well as rapid-response options like the Abacus Data Snap Poll for timely public opinion tracking.^[3] Qualitative offerings encompass focus groups, in-depth interviews, and moderated online research communities to explore nuanced consumer or voter motivations.^[15] Ad testing services evaluate campaign effectiveness through simulated exposure and response measurement, while advocacy and government relations support involves stakeholder mapping and targeted polling to influence policy outcomes.^[15] A distinctive element is the Abacus Data MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification), a proprietary modeling tool that enhances polling accuracy by fusing national survey data—typically from samples exceeding 3,000 respondents—with census demographics to generate localized predictions, such as vote shares in Canada's 338 federal electoral districts.^[16] This method, validated by accurate forecasts in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and 2017–2019 U.K. elections, supports applications in electoral strategy, micro-targeted advocacy (e.g., constituency-specific reports for parliamentarians), and efficient marketing segmentation without exhaustive traditional surveys.^[16] The firm also conducts public policy research, association membership studies, and behavioral trend analysis, serving sectors like real estate and small business through partnerships, such as with the Canadian Real Estate Association for housing market surveys.^[17]^[2] Overall, Abacus Data's integrated services blend empirical data collection with strategic interpretation, prioritizing reliability and client-specific customization over standardized reporting.^[18]

Historical Development

Establishment and Early Polling

Abacus Data was established on July 3, 2010, in Ottawa, Ontario, by David Coletto, who serves as its founder, chair, and CEO.^[9] Initially operating as a two-person firm, the company emphasized innovative public opinion and market research to enable leaders to make informed decisions based on empirical insights.^[9] Coletto, drawing from his background in analyzing political parties and public policy through polling, positioned Abacus Data to differentiate itself via rigorous data-driven approaches in a competitive Canadian research landscape.^[11] In its formative period from 2010 to 2012, Abacus Data concentrated on conducting targeted polls for political entities and policy stakeholders, building a foundation in federal and provincial opinion tracking.^[11] These early efforts included surveys assessing voter sentiments and issue priorities, which helped establish the firm's reputation for accuracy amid Canada's 2011 federal election cycle, though specific public releases from that time were limited as the company prioritized client-specific work.^[10] By focusing on customized research rather than broad media polling, Abacus Data expanded its client base among political campaigns and organizations seeking strategic guidance.^[11] This phase marked the transition from startup to a growing player, leveraging Coletto's expertise to navigate initial challenges in data collection and analysis.^[9]

Growth Through Key Elections

Abacus Data's involvement in the 2015 Canadian federal election represented a pivotal phase in its expansion, as the firm conducted frequent polls that captured the shifting dynamics of a highly competitive campaign. In early June 2015, Abacus reported a virtual three-way tie, with the Conservatives at 31%, the NDP at 30%, and the Liberals at 29% among decided voters, underscoring the election's unpredictability just months before Justin Trudeau's Liberal victory.^[19] These surveys, disseminated through media outlets, elevated the firm's visibility beyond its initial Ottawa base, attracting attention from political campaigns and journalists seeking data-driven insights into voter sentiment on economic softness and leadership perceptions.^[20] Post-2015, Abacus leveraged this momentum to deepen its role in national polling, conducting post-election analyses such as studies on youth engagement that highlighted increased turnout among younger voters, positioning the firm as an authority on emerging electoral trends.^[21] This period facilitated strategic partnerships, including its designation as the official pollster for the Toronto Star, which amplified its reach through regular federal and provincial tracking polls.^[7] The firm's growth manifested in workforce expansion and methodological refinements, transitioning from a two-person operation founded in July 2010 to a multi-office entity serving diverse clients.^[9] Continued participation in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections further solidified Abacus's reputation, with ongoing surveys informing public discourse on minority government dynamics and policy priorities. By the 2025 federal election, the firm had scaled its operations significantly, releasing weekly tracking polls that navigated volatile shifts—from early Conservative leads to a deadlocked race—and culminating in a final pre-election survey reflecting heightened uncertainty.^[22] This sustained electoral presence drove geographic expansion, including a new office in Nova Scotia in November 2024, and broadened its advisory services to international clients, attributing much of its trajectory to the credibility earned through rigorous, election-timed data collection.^[23]

Methodology and Research Practices

Data Collection Techniques

Abacus Data primarily collects quantitative data through online surveys administered via opt-in panels, enabling rapid fielding of national samples typically ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 Canadian adults over 3 to 5 days. These surveys recruit respondents from established panels and apply post-stratification weighting based on age, gender, education, region, and other census-aligned variables to mitigate selection biases inherent in non-probability sampling.^[24]^[25]^[26] The firm supplements online methods with custom telephone surveys, including live interviewer-led calls and interactive voice response (IVR) systems for scenarios requiring higher engagement or validation against digital divides, though online approaches predominate for their cost-effectiveness and stability in tracking gradual shifts in public opinion.^[3]^[27] Abacus Data has noted that online polling yields more consistent results compared to IVR, which can amplify volatile responses from highly motivated subgroups.^[27] Qualitative data collection includes moderated focus groups, one-on-one in-depth interviews, and hosted online research communities, often used to probe underlying motivations or test messaging in controlled settings with 6 to 10 participants per group.^[3] For specialized tools like Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), Abacus Data conducts larger-scale online polls—at least 3,000 respondents—gathering detailed respondent-level data on demographics, geography, issue priorities, and voting behavior to fuel hierarchical models that estimate sub-population outcomes without exhaustive sampling.^[16] This technique integrates survey responses with external census data for granular, riding-level projections.^[16]

Analytical Tools and Models

Abacus Data employs multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) as a core analytical model for estimating public opinion and voting intentions at granular levels, such as individual electoral ridings.^[16] This method integrates data from large-scale national surveys—typically involving at least 3,000 Canadian adults—with demographic details from census records to construct predictive models based on respondent characteristics like age, education, income, and geography, rather than relying solely on sample representativeness.^[16] The MRP process begins with detailed polling that captures political variables alongside demographics, followed by regression analysis to identify patterns and post-stratification to adjust estimates according to known population distributions, enabling constituency-specific forecasts without exhaustive local sampling.^[16] Abacus Data has applied this model to generate 338 customized reports for Canadian parliamentary constituencies, highlighting variations such as crime as the top issue in Winnipeg ridings versus healthcare in Atlantic Canada seats.^[16] Proponents of MRP, including Abacus Data, claim it offers greater accuracy and cost-efficiency for subgroups compared to traditional random sampling, with the firm citing successful predictions in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, 2017 UK general election, and 2019 UK election—though independent verification of these claims remains limited to self-reported outcomes.^[16] Beyond MRP, Abacus Data utilizes segmentation models to dissect voter behavior along multi-dimensional ideological axes, challenging simplistic left-right spectra by incorporating attitudes on economics, social issues, and cultural values.^[28] These models derive from survey data analysis to profile consumer and voter cohorts, informing targeted strategies in political and market research.^[28] The firm also developed the Three Thread Framework as an analytical tool for policy advocacy, assessing success potential through convergence of public problem recognition, solution feasibility, and political support, drawn from longitudinal opinion tracking.^[29] In practice, these tools complement standard statistical techniques like weighting for online panels, where Abacus Data conducts surveys via proprietary panels to minimize house effects observed in divergent polling modes such as IVR versus online methods.^[27] Sample sizes in recent federal polls range from 1,500 to over 4,500 adults, with margins of error around ±2-3%, adjusted post-hoc for demographic alignment.^[30] While MRP enhances precision for niche applications like government relations and advertising targeting, its reliance on model assumptions introduces potential biases if demographic-vote correlations shift unpredictably, as critiqued in broader polling literature on aggregation techniques.^[16]

Leadership and Key Contributors

Principal Figures

David Coletto is the founder, Chair, and CEO of Abacus Data, having established the firm in 2010 as a full-service market research and strategy consultancy specializing in public opinion polling.^[9] With a PhD in political science and over two decades of experience in polling and social research, Coletto directs the company's strategic direction, including its proprietary data collection and analytical models, and frequently provides commentary on Canadian electoral trends through partnerships such as with the Toronto Star.^[31] ^[32] Ihor Korbabicz serves as President of Abacus Data, playing a central role in operational leadership and client relations within the senior executive team.^[33] His contributions focus on ensuring the firm's growth and delivery of customized research services across sectors like politics, healthcare, and consumer insights.^[34] Other principal contributors include Yvonne Langen, Vice President of Sales and Marketing, who oversees business development and client acquisition strategies, and Eddie Sheppard, Vice President of Insights, responsible for interpreting polling data and deriving actionable intelligence for clients.^[34] These figures collectively drive Abacus Data's emphasis on rigorous, data-driven public opinion analysis, distinguishing the firm through its hybrid online and telephone survey methodologies.^[34]

Organizational Structure

Abacus Data is structured as a privately held, full-service market research firm with centralized leadership under founder David Coletto, who serves as chair and chief executive officer, overseeing strategic direction, research design, and client advisory services.^[35] Ihor Korbabicz holds the position of president, contributing to the senior leadership team by managing operational execution, business development, and surpassing client objectives in polling and strategy projects.^[33] This top-level hierarchy supports a lean team of research professionals, including associates, analysts, and field specialists, who handle data collection, analysis, and reporting without publicly detailed departmental divisions.^[36] The firm maintains a distributed operational footprint with offices in Ottawa (headquarters), Toronto, and Halifax, enabling national coverage for quantitative surveys, qualitative focus groups, and custom research initiatives across public affairs and market sectors.^[5] Recent expansions, including hires and internal promotions as of March 2024, reflect efforts to optimize team capacity for growing demand in election polling and opinion tracking, though specific reporting lines or subunit structures remain undisclosed in public records.^[37] As a small-scale operation estimated at under 50 employees, Abacus Data emphasizes agile, client-focused workflows over rigid bureaucratic layers, prioritizing empirical data handling and methodological innovation in its core functions.^[38]

Political Impact and Notable Work

Federal Election Polling

Abacus Data conducts regular nationwide polling for Canadian federal elections, employing online panels and telephone surveys to track voter intentions, often releasing multiple waves during campaigns and final assessments on the eve of voting. The firm's methodology emphasizes likely voter models, regional breakdowns, and issue salience to predict outcomes, with surveys typically involving 1,500 to 2,500 respondents weighted to national demographics.^[39] In the 2019 federal election, Abacus Data's final poll, released October 20, 2019, showed the Liberals and Conservatives separated by 2 percentage points nationally, with Liberals at approximately 32% and Conservatives at 30% among decided voters, while stressing that differentials in turnout and regional strengths—particularly in Ontario and Quebec—would decide seat counts. This aligned closely with the actual popular vote, where Conservatives edged Liberals by 1.3 points but failed to secure a parliamentary majority due to vote distribution.^[40] For the 2021 snap election, the firm's concluding survey from September 17 to 19, 2021, involving 2,431 eligible voters, indicated a statistical tie between Conservatives (33%) and Liberals (32%), with NDP at 20%, mirroring the final result of Conservatives at 33.7% and Liberals at 32.6% in popular vote, though Liberals retained power via seat advantages in urban ridings. Abacus Data's projection accurately captured the absence of a majority, attributing stability to persistent pandemic-related concerns overriding economic dissatisfaction.^[41] Abacus Data's polling for the 2025 federal election featured ongoing tracking that initially forecasted a Conservative majority amid economic discontent, but late surveys reflected a rebound for Liberals under new leadership. The final poll, April 24–27, 2025, among 2,500 adults using a likely-voter adjustment, pegged Liberals at 41%, Conservatives at 39%, NDP at 10%, and Bloc Québécois at 6%, suggesting a narrow Liberal win potentially yielding 170 seats if turnout exceeded 70%. Post-election review highlighted an underestimation of late surges in Conservative support driven by cost-of-living priorities, which shifted decisively in the final days and contributed to a tighter national race than modeled.^[22]^[42] The firm's federal polls contribute to aggregates like the CBC Poll Tracker and are evaluated positively in independent reviews for low average errors in popular vote projections across cycles, with adherence to Canadian Research Insights Council standards ensuring probabilistic sampling and transparency in weighting. Assessments by analysts such as Éric Grenier have ranked Abacus Data among top performers in 2021 for minimizing house effects, though like peers, it faced challenges in volatile turnout modeling during 2025's leadership transitions.^[43]^[44]^[45]

Public Opinion on Key Issues

Abacus Data surveys have identified cost of living as the dominant public concern in Canada, frequently outranking other issues in voter priorities. In a poll conducted from September 26 to October 1, 2025, among 1,504 adults, economic pressures including inflation and affordability were cited as surging worries, contributing to perceptions of political deadlock. Similarly, an August 15-19, 2025, survey of 1,915 adults showed cost of living dominating discussions, with steady public pessimism about the country's direction amid stagnant growth. These findings align with broader economic unease, as a September 2025 poll linked GDP contraction to heightened voter anxiety over living standards.^[46]^[47]^[48] Housing affordability has emerged as a critical flashpoint, with polls revealing widespread pessimism about homeownership prospects. A national survey partnered with the Canadian Real Estate Association, conducted in October 2025, found Canadians resizing expectations amid crisis-level availability and costs, with 76% agreeing insufficient affordable homes exist. Over 90% expressed concern about the overall state of housing, highlighting generational divides where younger respondents doubt achieving traditional ownership. Public support leans toward expanded non-market solutions, including co-operative housing, as 73% viewed such models as viable for alleviating shortages in a March 2025 poll.^[49]^[50]^[51] Immigration ranks among the top five national priorities for approximately 28% of Canadians, per a September 12-17, 2025, survey of over 2,000 adults, reflecting rising scrutiny of intake levels and integration. Opinion splits sharply along partisan lines, with 80% of Conservative identifiers deeming immigrant numbers excessive, eroding prior consensus on benefits. A September 8, 2025, poll revealed divisions on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, with generational, regional, and political variances favoring restrictions among older and conservative respondents. These sentiments tie to housing and job strains, positioning immigration as intertwined with economic grievances.^[52]^[53]^[54] Crime and safety have ascended as a leading issue, surpassing traditional economic foci in some tracking. The same September 12-17, 2025, poll elevated it to a top concern amid parliamentary resumption, signaling public demand for tougher policies. On environmental matters, a October 2025 survey indicated Canadians perceive natural assets like forests and biodiversity as a core economic strength, supporting restoration efforts such as reforestation over pure regulatory approaches, though climate ranks below immediate fiscal threats.^[55]^[56]

Accuracy, Reception, and Criticisms

Performance Track Record

Abacus Data has maintained a strong record of accuracy in Canadian federal elections, consistently earning high ratings from independent evaluators such as 338Canada, which assigns the firm an overall A− rating and an A+ for the 2021 federal contest based on alignment with popular vote shares and regional breakdowns.^[57] In the 2021 election, Abacus's final poll on September 19 indicated Conservatives and Liberals statistically tied nationally, a projection that closely matched the actual outcome where Conservatives garnered 33.7% of the vote to Liberals' 32.6%, with the firm outperforming the CBC Poll Tracker aggregate and ranking among pollsters with errors under 2 points per party in key regions like Ontario and Alberta.^[41]^[44] The firm's performance in the 2019 election similarly demonstrated precision, with its October 20 final poll showing Conservatives ahead of Liberals by 2 points—a margin that anticipated the real 1.3-point Conservative lead (34.4% to 33.1%), while also capturing competitive regional dynamics that influenced seat outcomes amid higher-than-expected turnout.^[40] For the 2025 federal election held on April 28, Abacus's pre-election surveys, including a late-April poll showing Liberals leading by 3 points among committed voters, aligned with the Liberal victory under Mark Carney, though short of a majority; regionally, the firm achieved the lowest errors in Atlantic Canada, correctly forecasting all major parties within 1 percentage point.^[58]^[59] These results reflect Abacus's reliance on online panels of over 1,500–2,000 respondents per survey, weighted for demographics and past voting behavior, which has minimized systematic biases observed in some telephone-based polling.^[57] Critics note occasional underestimation of late-campaign surges, as in 2015 when pre-October polls tracked a tight race but missed the full Liberal momentum to 39.5%, yet aggregate analyses place Abacus above average for that cycle due to reliable tracking of undecideds and regional shifts.^[60] Independent reviews, including those from The Writ, attribute Abacus's reliability to methodological transparency and avoidance of over-reliance on low-response-rate modes, contrasting with firms prone to higher errors from non-probability samples.^[44] Overall, the firm's track record supports its reputation for credible forecasting, with Brier scores and error metrics competitive among Canada's top pollsters.^[57]

Debates on Bias and Reliability

Abacus Data's reliance on online opt-in panels for surveying has sparked methodological debates regarding potential self-selection and non-response biases inherent in non-probability sampling. Unlike traditional random-digit-dialing approaches, opt-in methods recruit respondents from pre-existing panels, which may disproportionately include more engaged, urban, or digitally savvy individuals unless corrected through weighting. Abacus addresses this by aggregating data from multiple panels and applying demographic post-stratification weights aligned with census benchmarks, such as age, gender, education, and region, to approximate representativeness.^[61] Critics, including some readers and traditional pollsters, contend that even weighted online surveys can systematically underperform in capturing less accessible populations, such as rural or low-engagement voters, potentially inflating volatility or favoring status quo sentiments. The Toronto Star, a frequent collaborator with Abacus, has rebutted such concerns, affirming that polling evolution—driven by declining landline usage and rising digital access—necessitates online methods, and that Abacus's multi-panel strategy minimizes single-source distortions. Independent analyses, such as those by Éric Grenier, place Abacus among pollsters with solid historical performance, though no firm achieves perfect predictive accuracy due to inherent uncertainties like turnout modeling.^[61]^[44] Partisan allegations of ideological bias occasionally arise, typically tied to results diverging from expectations; for example, during periods of strong Conservative leads in Abacus polls, some left-leaning commentators on platforms like Reddit have speculated pro-Conservative skewing, attributing it to sampling favoring motivated right-leaning respondents. Conversely, Abacus CEO David Coletto has publicly highlighted general polling pitfalls, including response bias where vocal subgroups dominate, without endorsing partisan favoritism. These claims remain unsubstantiated by systematic audits, as Abacus discloses methodologies transparently and adheres to standards from bodies like the Canadian Research Insights Council, fostering credibility among media outlets despite polarized interpretations.^[62]^[63]

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September 8, 2025. A new Abacus Data survey finds the country deeply divided on whether to eliminate Canada's Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), ...
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Abacus Data Poll: Crime and Safety Rise as Top Issue as ...
Sep 21, 2025 · Concern about crime and public safety is slightly higher among older Canadians, in Ontario and the Prairies, and among Conservative voters. In ...<|separator|>
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https://www.theenergymix.com/canadians-see-nature-as-economic-advantage-abacus-poll-finds/
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338Canada Ratings of Canadian Pollsters
But in the interest of transparency, and to give readers a clearer understanding of how pollsters have performed in recent elections across Canada, I believe ...
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Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 3 in final days of the campaign.
Apr 23, 2025 · A new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among all committed eligible voters and those who have voted and by 5 among those who are most ...
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How the polls did in the 2025 election - by Éric Grenier - The Writ
May 2, 2025 · The election results at the top of the chart and the polling results for each pollster are all rounded off, but the errors are calculated to a ...
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How accurate are Canadian polls? - Macleans.ca
May 20, 2019 · Philippe J. Fournier: A 338Canada analysis shows the hits and misses of the country's top polling firms—and the importance of polling ...
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Star stands by the polling methods of Abacus Data - Toronto Star
Apr 26, 2024 · The Star's use of polling had changed as technology and trends have changed. Using opt-in online polling -- the kind of polling used by ...
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Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 19 as Liberal vote ... - Reddit
Feb 13, 2025 · Also worth noting that 22% of 2021 NDP + LPC voters are currently undecided compared to 3% of 2021 CPC voters. Hard to say because Abacus rarely ...<|control11|><|separator|>
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Response bias occurs when people who choose to participate in a ...
How response bias distorts poll results. View profile for David Coletto · David Coletto. Founder, Chair & CEO of Abacus Data, Canada's most sought ...