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Altman Z-score

The Altman Z-score is a financial metric developed by Edward I. Altman in 1968 to predict the likelihood of a publicly traded manufacturing company's bankruptcy within two years, utilizing multiple discriminant analysis on five key financial ratios from balance sheets, income statements, and market data.^[1] The model generates a composite score that classifies firms into zones of financial health: a score above 2.99 indicates a "safe" zone with low bankruptcy risk, between 1.81 and 2.99 a "gray" zone of uncertainty, and below 1.81 a "distress" zone signaling high risk.^[2] Altman's original formulation, derived from a sample of 66 U.S. manufacturing firms (33 bankrupt and 33 non-bankrupt, all with assets under $25 million and data from before 1966), is expressed as Z = 1.2X₁ + 1.4X₂ + 3.3X₃ + 0.6X₄ + 1.0X₅, where X₁ is working capital divided by total assets (measuring liquidity), X₂ is retained earnings divided by total assets (assessing profitability age), X₃ is earnings before interest and taxes divided by total assets (evaluating operating efficiency), X₄ is market value of equity divided by total liabilities (gauging market leverage), and X₅ is sales divided by total assets (reflecting asset turnover).^[1] In the initial study, the model achieved 94% accuracy in classifying bankrupt firms (Type I error) and 82% for non-bankrupt firms (Type II error) on the training sample, with 72% Type II accuracy on a holdout sample of 50 firms; subsequent validations, including data from 1969–1975, confirmed overall accuracies around 86% for Type I errors.^[2] Widely adopted in credit risk assessment, investment analysis, and regulatory monitoring, the Z-score has proven robust over decades, with Altman noting its continued relevance as a benchmark despite market evolutions, though he developed variants like the Z'-score for private firms (excluding market-based X₄ and adjusting coefficients) and the Z''-score for non-manufacturers to address limitations in the original model's scope to public manufacturers under pre-1978 U.S. bankruptcy laws.^[2] The model's enduring influence stems from its simplicity, empirical foundation, and high predictive power, influencing fields from corporate finance to emerging market applications, while emphasizing the importance of timely financial data for accurate forecasting.^[2]

Overview

Definition and Purpose

The Altman Z-score is a statistical model employing multivariate discriminant analysis to evaluate the financial health of companies and forecast the probability of bankruptcy occurring within a two-year horizon.^[1] Developed by Edward I. Altman in 1968 specifically for publicly traded manufacturing firms in the United States, it integrates multiple financial indicators to provide a holistic assessment of distress risk, distinguishing between stable and failing entities through a classification approach.^[2] The primary purpose of the Z-score is to function as an early warning tool for corporate insolvency, enabling stakeholders such as investors, creditors, and analysts to gauge a firm's vulnerability to financial distress in advance.^[1] By synthesizing essential financial metrics, it aids in decision-making processes related to credit extension, investment allocation, and strategic oversight, thereby promoting proactive risk management within the financial community.^[2] At its core, the model aggregates five key financial ratios—representing liquidity, profitability, leverage, solvency, and activity—into a unified score that reflects overall financial stability.^[1] Higher scores signal robust health and reduced likelihood of failure, while the methodology's discriminant framework allows for the probabilistic separation of healthy firms from those at risk, based on empirical patterns observed in historical data.^[2]

Historical Development

The Altman Z-score originated from a lineage of bankruptcy prediction research that sought to identify financial indicators of corporate distress. Early studies in the 1930s, such as those by Smith and Winakor, analyzed balance sheet changes in failed industrial firms to discern common patterns of financial deterioration leading to insolvency. These univariate approaches were advanced in the mid-1960s by Beaver, who systematically evaluated individual financial ratios—like debt-to-assets and cash flow measures—for their ability to predict failure up to five years in advance, revealing that no single ratio consistently outperformed others across datasets.^[3] Edward I. Altman, then a doctoral candidate in finance at New York University, innovated by integrating multiple ratios through multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), a statistical technique pioneered by Fisher in 1936 for classifying observations based on several variables, originally in biological taxonomy. Altman developed the Z-score model during his 1967 PhD dissertation, applying MDA to financial data from 66 publicly traded U.S. manufacturing companies—33 that had declared bankruptcy between 1946 and 1965, matched by industry and asset size to 33 non-bankrupt controls, all with total assets exceeding $1 million—to create a composite score distinguishing distressed from healthy firms.^[4] The model addressed limitations of prior single-ratio methods amid the expanding post-World War II U.S. economy, where rising corporate leverage and credit demands necessitated more robust tools for bankruptcy forecasting to guide lenders and investors. It was first published in the August 1968 issue of The Journal of Finance as "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy," marking a shift toward multivariate statistical models in corporate finance.^[5]^[4]

Original Model

Formula

The original Altman Z-score model, developed for publicly traded manufacturing companies, is expressed as the following linear combination of five financial ratios:

Z = 1.2X_1 + 1.4X_2 + 3.3X_3 + 0.6X_4 + 1.0X_5

where the variables are defined as: X_1 = working capital / total assets; X_2 = retained earnings / total assets; X_3 = earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) / total assets; X_4 = market value of equity / book value of total liabilities; and X_5 = sales / total assets.^[4] The coefficients (1.2, 1.4, 3.3, 0.6, and 1.0) were derived through multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), a statistical technique that identifies a linear combination of predictor variables to optimally separate observations into predefined groups—in this case, bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms—by maximizing the ratio of between-group variance to within-group variance relative to the group centroids (means).^[4] MDA was applied to historical financial data from a matched sample of 66 U.S. manufacturing firms (33 that went bankrupt between 1946 and 1965, and 33 non-bankrupt controls), with ratios computed from the year prior to bankruptcy or a matched period.^[4] Calculating the Z-score requires data from standard financial statements: total assets, working capital (current assets minus current liabilities), retained earnings, EBIT, book value of total liabilities, and sales from the balance sheet and income statement, supplemented by market capitalization for equity value.^[4] All input ratios are dimensionless, as they normalize financial figures by total assets (or liabilities for X_4), ensuring the resulting Z-score is a unitless value interpreted on a continuous scale without inherent bounds.^[4]

Component Definitions

The original Altman Z-score model incorporates five financial ratios, each selected for its ability to capture distinct dimensions of a manufacturing firm's financial health and vulnerability to bankruptcy. These ratios were derived through multiple discriminant analysis on a sample of 66 U.S. manufacturing companies, emphasizing variables that demonstrated strong discriminatory power between bankrupt and non-bankrupt entities.^[1] X1: Working Capital / Total Assets measures a firm's short-term liquidity by calculating the ratio of net working capital (current assets minus current liabilities) to total assets. This component assesses the availability of liquid resources to cover immediate obligations, with lower values indicating potential cash flow strains and heightened bankruptcy risk, as distressed firms often deplete working capital in the lead-up to failure.^[1]^[6] X2: Retained Earnings / Total Assets evaluates cumulative profitability relative to total assets, reflecting the firm's historical earnings retention and maturity. Retained earnings accumulate over time from profitable operations, so younger firms or those with ongoing losses exhibit low or negative values, signaling limited reinvestment capacity and greater susceptibility to distress.^[1]^[6] X3: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) / Total Assets gauges operating efficiency and core profitability by dividing pretax, pre-interest earnings by total assets. This ratio isolates the firm's ability to generate returns from its asset base independent of financing structure or tax effects, where higher values denote robust operational performance and reduced bankruptcy likelihood.^[1]^[6] X4: Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities assesses leverage from a market perspective, using the current market capitalization of equity divided by the book value of liabilities. This component incorporates investor confidence in the firm's going-concern value, as market prices adjust for perceived distress risks, providing a more dynamic measure of debt burden than book values alone.^[1]^[6] X5: Sales / Total Assets reflects asset utilization efficiency, known as total asset turnover, by relating annual sales to total assets. It captures how effectively a firm converts its asset base into revenue, with higher ratios indicating productive operations; in manufacturing contexts, this highlights tangible asset performance in driving sales.^[1]^[6] Collectively, these components provide a balanced assessment of firm health: X1 addresses liquidity, X2 and X3 focus on profitability and historical performance, X4 evaluates leverage with market insights, and X5 examines activity levels. The model's design prioritizes manufacturing firms, where tangible assets dominate and these ratios effectively signal distress through interconnected financial pressures.^[1]^[6]

Interpretation and Validation

Score Thresholds

The Altman Z-score categorizes a company's financial health into three distinct zones based on the computed value, providing a framework for assessing bankruptcy risk. A score greater than 2.99 indicates the "safe zone," where the company exhibits low risk of bankruptcy and strong financial stability. Scores between 1.81 and 2.99 fall into the "gray zone," signaling moderate risk and uncertainty that warrants closer monitoring. Finally, a score below 1.81 places the company in the "distress zone," indicating a high probability of bankruptcy within the near term.^[4] These thresholds derive from the multiple discriminant analysis used in the model's development, where the centroids of the bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups informed the boundaries: scores approaching zero align closely with the bankrupt centroid, reflecting severe distress, while values exceeding 3 approximate the non-bankrupt centroid, denoting stability.^[4] The model interprets the Z-score as a probabilistic measure rather than a deterministic outcome, estimating the likelihood of financial failure based on the relative distance from group centroids in the discriminant space.^[4] The thresholds primarily forecast bankruptcy probability over a 1- to 2-year horizon, capturing patterns observed in the original sample of manufacturing firms facing failure within that timeframe.^[4] These interpretive zones apply specifically to the original Z-score model designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with total assets under $25 million; subsequent adaptations for private firms, non-manufacturers, or emerging markets require adjusted thresholds to maintain accuracy. The model was based on pre-1966 U.S. data under pre-1978 bankruptcy laws.^[4]

Empirical Accuracy

In the original 1968 study, the Altman Z-score model demonstrated an overall classification accuracy of 95% for predicting bankruptcy one year in advance and 83% for two years ahead, based on a sample of 66 manufacturing firms, with Type I error rates (failing to identify bankruptcies) at 6% and Type II error rates (false positives) at 3%. Subsequent follow-up analyses by Altman confirmed the model's long-term effectiveness, with accuracy rates of 80-90% for one-year predictions sustained across three testing periods spanning 31 years up to 1999 in U.S. markets, despite varying economic conditions.^[6] In a 2000 revisit of the Z-score and related Zeta models, Altman reported continued predictive power, emphasizing out-of-sample validation on diverse datasets that maintained high Type I accuracy for financial distress identification.^[7] A 2018 retrospective further validated this robustness, noting the model's 80-90% accuracy in U.S. contexts over five decades, with consistent performance in classifying distressed firms through multiple economic cycles.^[6] Key studies have integrated the Z-score with advanced frameworks to enhance its empirical foundation. For instance, Shumway's 2001 hazard model, using accounting ratios similar to those in the Z-score alongside market variables, achieved superior out-of-sample forecasting accuracy compared to standalone static models, with strong explanatory power for bankruptcy events.^[8] Recent research from 2023-2025 extends validation to non-U.S. contexts, showing the model's sustained effectiveness. A 2023 study on European airlines reported 82.4% accuracy for one-year bankruptcy predictions using the updated Z''-score, outperforming the original Z' version's 64.7% and demonstrating early distress detection in out-of-sample tests.^[9] Similarly, a 2025 analysis of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Indonesia's LQ45 index found the Z-score accurately classified financial health for 85%+ of issuers over 2019-2023, with robust out-of-sample performance in emerging market settings.^[10] Empirical metrics underscore the model's reliability, with classification accuracies typically ranging 75-90% in one-year horizons and AUC-ROC values around 0.72 in comparative out-of-sample evaluations against benchmarks.^[11] As of 2025, literature reviews highlight the Z-score's enduring robustness for traditional finance applications, remaining competitive with machine learning models in interpretability and cost-effectiveness, though ML variants achieve higher AUC-ROC scores (up to 0.95) in complex datasets. Recent developments include integrations with AI for improved long-horizon predictions post-2008 financial crises.^[11]

Extensions and Variations

Adaptations for Non-Manufacturers

The original Altman Z-score model, designed for public manufacturing companies, relied on market value of equity, which posed challenges for private and non-manufacturing firms lacking readily available market data. To address this, Edward Altman introduced adaptations in the 1980s and 1990s, focusing on book values and adjusted coefficients to better suit service, retail, and other non-manufacturing sectors. These modifications emphasized profitability and liquidity metrics, reflecting the asset-light structures common in such industries.^[6] In 1983, Altman developed the Z'-score specifically for private manufacturing firms, substituting book value of equity for market value in the leverage ratio. The formula is:

Z' = 0.717X_1 + 0.847X_2 + 3.107X_3 + 0.420X_4 + 0.998X_5

where X_1 is working capital over total assets, X_2 is retained earnings over total assets, X_3 is earnings before interest and taxes over total assets, X_4 is book value of equity over total liabilities, and X_5 is sales over total assets. Interpretation thresholds are adjusted as follows: Z' > 2.9 indicates a safe zone, $1.23 \leq Z' \leq 2.9 a grey zone, and Z' < 1.23 a distress zone. This version has been widely applied to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), achieving over 85% accuracy in predicting bankruptcy one year prior in private firm samples.^[6]^[12]^[13] A further variant, the Z''-score, emerged in 1995 to accommodate non-manufacturing firms (both public and private), such as those in services and retail, by eliminating the sales-to-assets ratio (X_5)—deemed less predictive due to varying capital intensities across sectors—and increasing emphasis on profitability and liquidity. The formula simplifies to four factors:

Z'' = 6.56X_1 + 3.26X_2 + 6.72X_3 + 1.05X_4

using the same variable definitions as the Z'-score (with X_4 based on book value). Thresholds are calibrated to Z'' > 2.6 for safe, $1.1 \leq Z'' \leq 2.6 for grey, and Z'' < 1.1 for distress, accounting for the generally higher baseline scores in asset-light industries. These models were empirically tested on diverse datasets, including utilities and technology sectors, demonstrating robust performance across non-manufacturing samples.^[6]^[13]^[14]

Versions for Emerging Markets

The Emerging Market Score (EMS), a variant of the Altman Z-score developed by Edward I. Altman in the 1990s, adapts the model for firms in developing economies to address unique economic conditions such as high inflation, currency volatility, and underdeveloped financial systems. The formula is given by:

Z_{EM} = 3.25 + 6.56X_1 + 3.26X_2 + 6.72X_3 + 1.05X_4

where X_1 is working capital divided by total assets, X_2 is retained earnings divided by total assets, X_3 is earnings before interest and taxes divided by total assets, and X_4 is book value of equity divided by total liabilities; notably, it excludes the sales-to-total-assets ratio (X_5) to avoid distortions from erratic turnover figures common in volatile markets.^[14]^[13] This adaptation relies on book values rather than market values for equity, as the latter can be unreliable in emerging markets due to thin trading and speculative pricing. The model emphasizes the leverage ratio (X_4) with a coefficient of 1.05, reflecting the heightened vulnerability from immature debt markets where firms often face restricted access to financing and higher borrowing costs. Thresholds for interpretation are >4.15 (safe zone, low distress risk), 2.75–4.15 (grey zone, moderate risk), and <2.75 (distress zone, high bankruptcy probability within two years).^[15]^[16] The EMS was tested on datasets from Latin America and Asia, demonstrating predictive power during events like the 1997 Asian financial crisis, where low scores flagged firms at risk of default amid regional contagion. Altman's 2005 analysis extended its global applicability, integrating the EMS into a credit scoring system for emerging corporate bonds and validating its robustness across diverse economies.^[16] Recent research from 2023–2025 on firms in European emerging markets underscores its continued relevance.

Other Modified Models

In the 2000s and beyond, researchers developed hybrid models that combined the Altman Z-score's multivariate discriminant analysis framework with logistic or probit regression techniques to improve predictive power and address limitations in assuming equal group priors. These hybrids often incorporate additional variables such as cash flow metrics to better capture liquidity and operational health. For instance, the ZETA model, originally introduced in 1977 but refined in subsequent decades, uses logistic regression and includes cash flow to current liabilities as a key predictor for assessing bond default risk, achieving higher accuracy in rating corporate bonds compared to the original Z-score. A notable update came in Altman et al. (2017), who re-estimated the Z''-score coefficients using logit regression on a sample of European Union companies, enhancing its applicability to international bond markets by integrating more robust probability estimates.^[6]^[17] Recent literature from 2023 to 2025 has increasingly explored machine learning (ML) enhancements to the Z-score, positioning it as a baseline for more complex algorithms like random forests, neural networks, and gradient boosting. These integrations leverage the Z-score's financial ratios as input features, often yielding superior performance in out-of-sample predictions. For example, studies comparing the models report ML variants outperforming the traditional Z-score in bankruptcy prediction accuracy, particularly in data-rich environments, though the Z-score remains preferred for its simplicity and interpretability among practitioners.^[11]^[18] Niche adaptations of the Z-score have extended its use to specific sectors, including banks and non-profits, often drawing on foundational logit influences like Ohlson (1980). For banks, modifications adjust ratios to account for high leverage and regulatory capital, aligning with Basel frameworks; empirical tests show adapted Z-scores predicting bank failures in crisis periods. In non-profits, such as nursing homes, a modified Z-score using liquidity, profitability, and efficiency ratios predicts financial distress one to three years ahead with 39-44% accuracy, highlighting its utility despite sector-specific challenges like grant dependency. Recent 2024 credit cycle models, such as Wiserfunding's SME Z-score, extend the framework by incorporating macroeconomic factors like GDP growth and inflation, improving default probability estimates across economic phases without altering the core structure.^[19]^[20]^[21] Despite these evolutions, the Z-score has undergone no fundamental overhaul and remains a foundational tool, with ongoing research integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors or applying it to digital assets. The 2025 Z-ESG score model adapts the Z-score's discriminant logic to 39 ESG indicators across European firms, achieving 84-96% classification accuracy for compliance and correlating 79-84% with established ESG ratings. For digital assets, applications to cryptocurrency firms like BIGG Digital Assets use the Z-score to flag distress risks, though research remains preliminary due to volatile asset valuations.^[22]^[23]

Applications and Limitations

Practical Examples

One notable application of the Altman Z-score occurred in the case of Enron Corporation, an energy services firm, prior to its 2001 collapse. Note that the original Z-score was developed for manufacturing firms; its application here is illustrative. Analysis of Enron's financial statements from 1996 to 2000 using the original Z-score model revealed scores ranging from 1.58 (distress zone) in 1997 to 2.49 (grey zone) in 2000, indicating increasing financial strain despite apparent stability in later years.^[24] This highlighted vulnerabilities from high leverage and manipulated earnings, as the score's components—particularly retained earnings to total assets (X2) and market value of equity to book value of liabilities (X4)—deteriorated, foreshadowing the firm's inability to sustain debt obligations amid off-balance-sheet risks. Lehman Brothers, a financial services firm, provides another illustrative example from the 2008 financial crisis. Note that the original model is for manufacturers, and adaptations like Z'' are recommended for non-manufacturers. In 2007, Lehman's Z-score was calculated at -2.95 using the original model, placing it firmly in the distress zone and signaling severe insolvency risk due to excessive leverage and asset illiquidity.^[25] This low score amplified during the subprime mortgage meltdown, as the firm's reliance on short-term funding exposed it to market panic; by September 2008, Lehman filed for bankruptcy, the largest in U.S. history, validating the model's predictive power in crisis amplification for service-oriented entities. An alternative computation for the same period yielded a Z-score of 0.0891, still in distress, underscoring leverage issues with X4 at just 0.0532.^[26] In manufacturing contexts, the Z-score has effectively flagged distress, as seen with General Motors (GM) ahead of its 2009 bankruptcy. As of September 2008, GM's Z-score stood at -0.16, deep in the distress zone, driven by negative working capital (X1) and poor profitability (X3) amid declining auto sales and high labor costs.^[27] This outcome demonstrated the model's utility for capital-intensive manufacturers, where fixed asset burdens exacerbate downturns. A step-by-step calculation using public data from SEC filings and Altman's testimony exemplifies practical implementation, often done via Excel or financial software like Bloomberg. The formula is Z = 1.2X₁ + 1.4X₂ + 3.3X₃ + 0.6X₄ + 1.0X₅, yielding -0.16 for Q3 2008. This distress signal prompted strategic reviews, though external bailouts delayed filing.^[27] For emerging markets, the adapted Z''-score model (for non-manufacturers and emerging economies) was applied to PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk, an Indonesian airline, from 2016 to 2020; however, the cited analysis used the original Z-score. Scores consistently below 1.81—such as -0.44 in 2020—indicated distress, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on revenues and debt loads, leading to a restructuring in 2021-2022.^[28] This case illustrates the variant's relevance in volatile emerging settings, where currency fluctuations and regulatory hurdles affect components like sales to total assets (X5).

Criticisms and Limitations

The Altman Z-score model assumes linear relationships among its financial ratios, which can overlook non-linear risks such as sudden market shocks or "black swan" events that precipitate distress beyond predictable patterns.^[29] This limitation stems from its foundation in multiple discriminant analysis, a statistical technique that imposes linearity on the data, potentially underestimating complex interactions in volatile economic environments.^[29] Developed using 1960s data from U.S. manufacturing firms, the model's coefficients and thresholds have become outdated in the era of technology-driven companies, where intangible assets like intellectual property and software dominate balance sheets but receive limited emphasis in traditional ratios such as working capital or retained earnings.^[30] For instance, tech startups often exhibit negative working capital and prioritize growth over short-term profitability, leading the Z-score to misclassify them as distressed despite underlying viability.^[11] Additionally, the market-based ratio (X4, market value of equity to book value of total liabilities) proves volatile during bull markets, inflating scores and masking underlying leverage risks.^[29] The model's heavy reliance on historical U.S. manufacturing data introduces bias when applied globally, as it performs less reliably in emerging markets or non-U.S. contexts with different accounting standards and default dynamics.^[30] It also disregards qualitative factors, such as management quality, regulatory changes, or geopolitical risks, focusing exclusively on quantitative financial metrics and thereby providing an incomplete risk assessment.^[30]^[29] Recent studies from 2023 to 2025 highlight diminished accuracy in high-inflation or post-pandemic settings, with one-year prediction rates around 70-75% compared to higher performance from machine learning alternatives that better capture non-linear patterns.^[11] For example, during the COVID-19 recovery period, the model required significant recalibration to maintain relevance, as inflationary pressures distorted traditional ratios like earnings before interest and taxes.^[31] These analyses also note increased false positives in stable economies, where firms are erroneously flagged as risky due to outdated thresholds that do not account for evolved leverage norms.^[29] Recent integrations with machine learning (as of 2025) enhance the model's accuracy in contemporary data-rich environments without sacrificing its interpretability.^[11] The Z-score does not incorporate emerging factors like environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria or the valuation of cryptocurrency assets, limiting its applicability in modern portfolios influenced by sustainable investing and digital finance.^[11] While alternatives such as the Ohlson O-score—another logit-based model emphasizing total liabilities and firm size—serve as complements by addressing some accounting inconsistencies, and machine learning approaches enhance accuracy through data-driven adaptability, they are not outright replacements but rather tools to augment the Z-score's framework.^[32]^[11] To address these shortcomings, researchers suggest dynamic updates to the model's coefficients, periodically re-estimating them based on contemporary datasets to reflect economic shifts and improve long-term predictive power. Such recalibrations, as seen in sector-specific revisions, help mitigate obsolescence without abandoning the model's core simplicity.^[11]

References

[1]
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x
[2]
https://doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2018.243
[3]
Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure - jstor
86 WILLIAM H. BEAVER with the best ratio. The total-debt to total-assets ratio predicted next best, with the three liquid-asset ratios performing least well.
[4]
Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of ... - jstor
Firms in the original sample whose Z scores were below the so-called "zone of ignor- ance" experienced an average decline in the market value of their common.
[5]
[PDF] A fifty-year retrospective on credit risk models, the Altman Z-score ...
Fifty years ago, in 1967, I completed my PhD dissertation, which involved the first multivariate model for predicting the financial health of US ...
[6]
[PDF] A fifty-year retrospective on credit risk models, the Altman Z-score ...
The zones of discrimination from the original Z-score model (Altman 1968) were as follows: Z > 2:99; “safe” zone; 1:81 < Z < 2:99; “gray” zone; Z < 1:81; “ ...
[7]
[PDF] Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting the Z-Score ...
To deal with this problem,. Altman, Hartzell, and Peck (1995) have modified the original Altman Z-Score model to create the emerging market scoring (EMS) model.
[8]
[PDF] Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model
Sep 26, 2023 · I propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market-driven variables to produce out-of-sam- ple forecasts that are more accurate than.
[9]
Bankruptcy prediction for the European aviation industry: An ...
Oct 11, 2023 · The present research assesses the predictive power of the updated Altman Z-score model (1983 and 2017) using data on European airline bankruptcies over the ...
[10]
Financial Health of Leading SOEs: Altman Z-Score Analysis on ...
Oct 13, 2025 · This study aims to evaluate the financial health of selected state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed in the LQ45 index during the 2019–2023 period ...
[11]
Corporate Failure Prediction: A Literature Review of Altman Z-Score ...
According to Altman (2018a), the Z-score model has demonstrated sustained high Type I accuracy in predicting bankruptcy, even in subsequent studies conducted ...
[12]
Altman Z' Score - Insolvency Predictor (for Private Firms) - Credit Guru
It is used for predicting financial stress and the probability of a publicly traded firm going bankrupt in the next two years. The formula uses a combination of ...
[13]
Altman Z-Score | Formula + Calculator - Wall Street Prep
Nov 1, 2022 · Altman Z-Score is a model used to predict the near-term likelihood of companies undergoing bankruptcy or insolvency.
[14]
How to Assess Bankruptcy Risk With the Altman Z-Score Models
Apr 9, 2025 · The Altman Z-Score is a widely-used model developed by Edward I. Altman in 1968 to predict the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy within two years.
[15]
An emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds
Aug 9, 2025 · We use various components of balance sheet and income financial statement indicators to calculate Altman EM (emerging markets) Z -score as a ...
[16]
An emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds
The EMS model is a scoring system for emerging corporate bonds, based on a financial review and specific credit risk assessments, for relative value ...Missing: formula | Show results with:formula
[17]
An accuracy test of Altman and Zmijewski accounting-based ... - Qeios
Jan 10, 2024 · Altman (1968) developed the use of accounting ratios for bankruptcy ... X1 = working capital / total assets; X2 = retained earnings ...
[18]
Machine Learning and Financial Ratios as an Alternative to Altman's ...
In the study, the Altman Z-score method was first applied to assess the financial failure risks of the companies.
[19]
[PDF] Verifying the Validity of Altman's Z” Score as a Predictor of Bank ...
Nov 22, 2013 · many financial ratios at the same time (Altman, 1968). The primary ... X3: EBIT/Total Assets. X4: Book Value Equity/Total liabilities. X5 ...
[20]
Predicting Nursing Home Financial Distress Using the Altman Z-Score
Jul 2, 2020 · The Altman Z-score is a financial distress prediction model that has been used to identify financially distressed organizations in other ...
[21]
[PDF] Unlocking the Credit Cycle: Beyond the Z-Score
Apr 8, 2025 · Estimated outstanding amounts for the following European debt markets as of the end of 2024: European High Yield Bonds: Approximately €450 ...
[22]
None
### Summary of Z-ESG Score Model
[23]
BIGG Digital Assets (STU:7111) Altman Z-Score - GuruFocus
BIGG Digital Assets has a Altman Z-Score of -1.06, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years. The zones of ...
[24]
(PDF) Using Altman Z-score and Beneish M-score Models to Detect ...
... X3 = EBIT. Total assets. X4 = Market value of equity. Book vlue of liabilities ... The Z-score model (Altman, 1968) and M-score (Beneish, 1999) were used ...
[25]
[PDF] A Financial Risk and Fraud Model Comparison of Bear Stearns and ...
Altman Z-Score. The Altman (1968 and updated in 2005) Z-Score is a multivariate statistical formula used to forecast the probability a company will enter ...
[26]
[PDF] Lehman Brothers' inevitable bankruptcy splashed across its financial ...
Oct 19, 2011 · According to Altman's results, companies with a Z score higher than 2.99 were not in financial distress. In contrast, those with a Z score ...
[27]
[PDF] 1 Testimony of Dr. Edward I. Altman before the House of ...
Dec 5, 2008 · The latter is based on GM's Z-Score of -0.17 as of September 2008, clearer in the case of GM, since Chrysler's financials are not available ...
[28]
Analysing the Potential of Bankruptcy using Altman Z-Score
Aug 6, 2025 · The results of the study revealed that PT. Garuda Indonesia faced the financial difficulty that potentially led to bankruptcy risk. Evidence on ...Missing: example | Show results with:example
[29]
Altman Z-Score For Morgan Stanley (MS) - Finbox
Morgan Stanley's altman z-score decreased in 2020 (6.1, -0.7%) and increased in 2021 (6.4, +3.7%), 2022 (6.5, +1.9%), 2023 (6.6, +1.5%), and 2024 (6.6, +0.7%).
[30]
[PDF] European retail: defaults still on the rise after jump in 2023
Jul 9, 2024 · As we expected, bankruptcies increased again in 2023, amid inflation and easing government support. The trend continued in Q1 2024. Regarding ...
[31]
[PDF] The Use and Misuse of Simple Tools for Predicting Financial Distress
The original Altman Z-Score study, first pub- lished in 1968,2 created a simple formula to mea- sure the probability that publicly traded companies would go ...Missing: primary | Show results with:primary
[32]
The Altman Z-Score after 50 Years: Use and Misuse
Feb 9, 2016 · And what we found over the years is that non-manufacturers, especially in certain industries like services or retail, have on average higher Z- ...
[33]
Refining the Best-Performing V4 Financial Distress Prediction Models
... Altman Z-score required significant adjustments to remain accurate during the pandemic. Candera [39] conducted a comparative analysis of service companies ...
[34]
review and comparison of altman and ohlson model to predict ...
Sep 17, 2022 · The goal of this study is to compare and contrast Altman's (1993) revised Z-score model with Ohlson's (1980) O-score model for commercial firms.