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Cyclone Nisarga


Severe Cyclonic Storm Nisarga was a tropical cyclone that formed from a low-pressure area over the southeastern Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region on 31 May 2020, developing into a depression on 1 June, a cyclonic storm later that day, and intensifying to a severe cyclonic storm by early 3 June with maximum sustained winds of 110–120 km/h (gusts to 130 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 984 hPa. It tracked initially northwards before recurving northeast, covering approximately 1,294 km, and made landfall near Alibag in Maharashtra, India—about 95 km south of Mumbai—between 1230 and 1430 IST on 3 June, marking the first cyclone to strike the Maharashtra coast since Cyclone Phyan in 2009. Despite initial concerns for the densely populated metropolitan area during the ongoing , which prompted large-scale evacuations and preparedness measures, Nisarga produced heavy to very heavy rainfall (up to 19 cm in places like ), gale-force winds peaking at 110 km/h at observatories such as , widespread uprooting of trees, power disruptions, and localized flooding, but spared the city from catastrophic damage due to its slightly southward track. The storm resulted in at least four fatalities across , primarily from related incidents like falls and electrocution, alongside economic losses estimated in billions of rupees from crop damage, infrastructure repairs, and disruptions in districts like Raigad (where official surveys pegged losses at ₹200 ). Notably rare for the basin, which accounts for only about 5% of North cyclones, Nisarga highlighted vulnerabilities in urban coastal preparedness while demonstrating effective forecasting and response by the , which issued early warnings and verified gale wind predictions with high accuracy.

Meteorological History

Formation and Initial Development

A formed over the southeastern and adjoining region during the morning of 31 May 2020. The (IMD) issued its initial bulletin on the system at 1400 IST that day, issuing a pre-cyclone watch for the first time at the low-pressure area stage. The disturbance intensified amid warm sea surface temperatures exceeding 30°C and low vertical , organizing around a developing low-level circulation center. By late 1 June 2020, the system had strengthened into a while moving north-northeastward at approximately 10 km/h. On 2 June, the depression further developed, with sustained winds reaching 45 knots (83 km/h), prompting the IMD to upgrade it to a cyclonic storm and assign the name Nisarga from the regional . The initiated advisories, classifying it as 01A.

Intensification and Track

Following its intensification into a deep depression early on 2 June 2020, the system further strengthened into the cyclonic storm Nisarga at 0600 UTC, centered approximately 15.6°N 71.2°E over the eastcentral , with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (65 km/h). The storm initially tracked northwards at an average speed of 15.8 km/h, steered by an upper-level anticyclonic circulation. By 1200 UTC on 2 June, Nisarga recurved northeastwards, continuing to intensify amid favorable sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. It reached severe cyclonic storm status at 0000 UTC on 3 June, positioned at 17.3°N 72.1°E with winds increasing to 50 knots (93 km/h). Peak intensity occurred at 0600 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 60 knots (111 km/h) near 18.1°N 72.8°E. The cyclone maintained its northeastward path towards the coastline, covering a total track length of approximately 1,294 km from formation to dissipation. This trajectory brought it into close proximity to the coast south of by early 3 June.

Landfall and Dissipation

Cyclone Nisarga made on the western coast of near in , , at approximately 1:00 PM IST (0730 UTC) on 3 June 2020. At the point of , the system was classified as a severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained surface winds estimated at 110–120 km/h (68–75 mph) and gusts up to 140 km/h (87 mph), accompanied by a minimum central pressure of around 984 . The occurred roughly 80–100 km south of , marking the first such cyclone to strike the region since 1990. After crossing the coastline, Nisarga tracked northeastwards inland over north Madhya Maharashtra, where frictional effects from the terrain caused rapid weakening. By 5:30 PM IST (1200 UTC) on 3 June, it had downgraded to a cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 80–90 km/h (50–56 mph). Further inland progression led to additional degradation into a deep depression later that evening, with winds reduced to 50–60 km/h (31–37 mph). By 5:30 AM IST on 4 June, the remnants had weakened to a depression over west in eastern , continuing to move east-northeastwards. The system further dissipated into a well-marked over adjoining south and east by the morning of 5 June, with all cyclone-related bulletins discontinued by the . This quick post-landfall decay was attributed to the storm's interaction with the Deccan Plateau's rugged topography and decreasing moisture availability.

Forecasting and Warnings

Meteorological Agency Predictions

The (IMD), as the designated for the North , issued its first operational bulletin at 0330 UTC on 31 May 2020 regarding the low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining area, forecasting its likely intensification into a depression within 24 hours and further development into a cyclonic moving north-northeastwards towards the north and south coasts by 3 June. Earlier indications included an extended-range weather forecast on 21 May predicting low-pressure formation over the same region in about 10 days, and a tropical weather outlook on 29 May anticipating a depression over the in 3 days. IMD's intensity forecasts evolved with observations: at 0400 UTC on 1 , it predicted escalation to a severe cyclonic with maximum sustained surface winds of 105-115 km/h gusting to 125 km/h over the next 24-48 hours; by 0600 UTC on 2 , the was forecasted at 100-110 km/h gusting to 120 km/h. Track guidance from IMD's multi-model ensemble (MME) and global models like GFS and ECMWF consistently projected a north-northeastward path, with the final operational forecast at 0600 UTC on 2 specifying between Revdanda and in , , during the afternoon of 3 (around 1200-1500 IST). Associated hazards included winds reaching 100-110 km/h gusting to 120 km/h along the -Goa coasts from the evening of 2 , heavy to very heavy rainfall (up to 150-200 mm in 24 hours) over , Madhya , and on 3-4 , and a of 1-2 meters above astronomical near the point, particularly affecting , , and . The (JTWC) initiated warnings for the system as Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nisarga), assessing initial intensity at 65 knots (approximately 120 km/h using 1-minute sustained winds) based on convective structure around 0000 UTC on 1 June, with forecasts indicating a northeastward track steered by a mid-level and potential for further strengthening to intensities near 70 knots before . JTWC guidance emphasized low confidence in the overall track due to environmental shear and rapid environmental changes, projecting along the central west coast of on 3 June.

Accuracy and Uncertainties

The (IMD), as the primary forecasting agency for the North Indian Ocean basin, achieved notable accuracy in predicting Cyclone Nisarga's , , and parameters. Operational forecast errors stood at 59.7 km for 12-hour lead times, 111.6 km for 24 hours, and 212.0 km for 48 hours, representing skills of 67%, 73%, and 78% respectively relative to forecasts; while 12- and 24-hour errors exceeded the 2015-2019 long-period averages (LPAs) of 49.6 km and 80.6 km, the 48-hour skill surpassed the LPA of 73%. Landfall-specific predictions were highly precise, with point errors of 7.8 km, 33.1 km, and 80.1 km at 12, 24, and 48 hours—better than LPAs of 25.4 km, 44.7 km, and 69.4 km—and time errors of 0 hours, 0.5 hours, and 1.0 hour, outperforming LPAs of 2.0, 3.0, and 5.4 hours. forecasts similarly exceeded benchmarks, with absolute errors of 2.9 knots at 12 hours, 3.3 knots at 24 hours, and 7.5 knots at 48 hours—lower than LPAs of 5.4, 8.9, and 13.0 knots—and corresponding skills of 80%, 89%, and 81% based on error reduction relative to and . errors (RMSE) for intensity were 4.6 knots, 5.8 knots, and 7.9 knots at those lead times, again below LPAs of 7.1, 11.5, and 16.7 knots. Adverse elements, including gale winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, aligned closely with observations, enabling timely warnings. Forecast uncertainties stemmed primarily from inconsistent guidance among global models, resulting in substantial track spread that complicated interpretations. The IMD's multi-model (MME) mitigated this by selecting the guidance with the lowest errors, but longer-lead predictions (beyond 48 hours) exhibited elevated track errors compared to historical norms, reflecting inherent challenges in resolving steering patterns influenced by subtropical ridges and interactions. Despite these, the early issuance of a pre-cyclone watch during the stage—unprecedented for systems—underscored proactive uncertainty management. (JTWC) advisories, while secondary for the basin, corroborated IMD tracks but lacked detailed post-event error analyses specific to Nisarga.

Preparations

Evacuation and Safety Measures

Authorities in and initiated large-scale evacuations from coastal and low-lying areas ahead of Cyclone Nisarga's landfall on June 3, 2020, near in . In , over 80,000 individuals were evacuated from vulnerable coastal zones across eight districts, with more than 20,000 relocated by the evening of June 2 to 140 designated shelter homes. authorities focused evacuations on high-risk areas including Mumbai's coastal neighborhoods and , contributing to an estimated total of 170,000 people displaced across both states. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) deployed 45 teams across Maharashtra and Gujarat to support evacuation and preparedness operations, with 16 teams positioned specifically in Gujarat's coastal regions. State Disaster Response Forces (SDRF) complemented these efforts, including six reserve units in Maharashtra and additional teams in Gujarat, totaling 18 combined NDRF and SDRF units for rescue readiness. Mumbai police enforced restrictions prohibiting public presence along coastal areas to facilitate safe evacuations and minimize exposure to approaching winds exceeding 100 km/h. Public safety advisories emphasized securing essentials and structural precautions: residents were urged to stockpile , dry food, torches, batteries, and charged communication devices while moving loose outdoor items indoors and trimming overhanging branches to prevent hazards. Valuable documents and belongings were recommended for elevation to upper floors in flood-prone zones, with evacuation prioritized for those in makeshift or vulnerable structures. By June 3 morning, evacuation efforts were reported as nearly complete, with sheltered individuals provided precautionary support including essentials in .

Challenges Posed by COVID-19 Pandemic

The , which prompted nationwide in India starting March 25, 2020, significantly complicated preparations for Cyclone Nisarga's approach toward 's coast in early June. measures restricted mobility, supply chains, and inter-district transport, hindering the rapid deployment of resources like sandbags, tarpaulins, and emergency teams typically used for cyclone mitigation. Authorities faced dual imperatives: enforcing physical distancing to curb virus transmission while necessitating mass evacuations from vulnerable coastal zones, where over 100,000 residents in and were relocated to shelters. Evacuation centers, often overcrowded and lacking ventilation, posed heightened risks of outbreaks, particularly in Mumbai's densely populated slums identified as pandemic hotspots with thousands of cases by June 2020. Public reluctance to evacuate stemmed from fears of infection in communal s, compounded by unfamiliarity with risks in , where such events are rarer than on the eastern coast. To mitigate this, officials distributed (PPE) kits to response teams and disseminated guidelines blending safety with COVID protocols, such as masking and staggered arrivals, though enforcement remained uneven amid resource strains. Special protocols were required for relocating patients, including approximately 150 from temporary field hospitals in coastal areas to safer facilities inland, stretching an already overburdened healthcare system that reported over 72,000 cases in alone by early June. These overlapping crises amplified logistical difficulties, as cyclone-related flooding threatened sites and disrupted testing, yet early warnings and coordinated efforts by disaster management agencies limited direct human casualties from the storm to three confirmed deaths.

Impacts

Human Casualties and Injuries

Cyclone Nisarga caused six fatalities, primarily in , according to official reports from India's . These deaths occurred due to cyclone-related incidents such as falling s and electric poles amid high winds, rather than widespread flooding or structural collapses. In , near the landfall site, a 58-year-old man and a 10-year-old boy were killed when an electric pole and a collapsed on them during the storm on June 3, 2020. Additional deaths and injuries were reported in , where two individuals perished and three others sustained injuries in separate wind-related accidents on the same day. Media accounts aggregated at least four deaths and eight injuries across affected districts, highlighting the localized nature of the impacts despite the cyclone's proximity to densely populated . No human casualties or significant injuries were recorded in , where the storm's effects were minimal after . The low overall toll, relative to the cyclone's category 3-equivalent intensity, has been attributed to extensive preemptive evacuations of over people from coastal areas, which mitigated risks from storm surges and heavy rainfall. Preparations, including those conducted amid the concurrent , prevented higher losses, though incidental injuries from debris and uprooted infrastructure underscored vulnerabilities in rural and semi-urban zones.

Infrastructure and Economic Damages

Cyclone Nisarga caused significant damage to infrastructure primarily in Maharashtra's coastal districts, particularly Raigad, where it made on June 3, 2020, though Mumbai experienced relatively minor impacts due to the storm's weakening. Power supply networks suffered considerable disruption, affecting approximately 25 consumers across four districts including Raigad, Thane, Palghar, and , with snapped power lines and fallen poles requiring extensive repairs. Roads in affected areas, especially between Raigad and , were damaged by uprooted trees and debris, hindering access and necessitating clearance operations that extended into subsequent days. Over five lakh structures were damaged across eight talukas in , including partial collapses of houses, tin roofs stripped by winds, and walls breached in rural villages such as Udaywadi, where 23 of 25 structures were affected. Public infrastructure losses were estimated at around Rs 150 , encompassing repairs to coastal facilities and minor impacts on hospitals and schools, while hundreds of trees were uprooted, exacerbating damage to local buildings and utilities. In , 140 houses sustained partial damage alongside 105 additional structures. faced negligible infrastructure harm as the cyclone's path shifted away from its coast. Economic losses in totaled Rs 6,048 according to state government assessments, predominantly from agricultural devastation including orchards and crops across 8,000 hectares, alongside housing and fishing infrastructure such as damaged boats. Earlier surveys estimated lower figures around Rs 1,000 , reflecting initial underreporting in rural regions where and other plantations were heavily uprooted. These costs encompassed direct structural repairs and lost productivity, with minimal insured losses reported due to the cyclone's localized impact and the predominance of uninsured rural assets.

Environmental and Agricultural Effects

Cyclone Nisarga caused significant damage to coastal vegetation, including the destruction of approximately 150,000 rare mangrove saplings in Raigad district, Maharashtra, on June 3, 2020, during its landfall. The storm also uprooted around 160,000 trees across affected areas, contributing to vegetation degradation and shoreline changes along the Maharashtra coast. Existing mangrove forests played a mitigating role by preventing widespread saltwater ingress into inland areas, though storm surges still led to localized saltwater intrusion and erosion in vulnerable coastal zones. Agriculturally, the cyclone destroyed crops across approximately 8,000 hectares in , with heavy impacts on , , and fields due to high winds, flooding from torrential rainfall, and exposure. Overall, more than 20,000 hectares of farmland were affected in 13 tehsils, exacerbating and root stress in low-lying regions. cultivation in the region suffered long-term setbacks from uprooted trees and disrupted orchards, compounding recovery challenges amid the ongoing season.

Aftermath and Recovery

Immediate Government Response

The (NDRF), under the coordination of the central government, mobilized 20 teams immediately following the landfall of Cyclone Nisarga on June 3, 2020, near in Maharashtra's , focusing on , relocation, and infrastructure restoration in coastal areas. These teams were stationed across key districts including Sindhudurg, , , , , and , working in tandem with state authorities to relocate residents from vulnerable zones and conduct rapid damage assessments. Restoration operations commenced without delay, with NDRF personnel clearing and restoring access in affected regions; by the operation's conclusion shortly after the event, teams had removed 618 uprooted trees, 94 fallen electric poles, and cleared 237 kilometers of obstructed roads in alone. These 24/7 efforts supported local administrations in and , where an additional 16 NDRF teams were prepositioned in districts such as , , , and to address potential spillover impacts and facilitate swift return to normalcy. The coordinated response emphasized minimizing further risks amid the ongoing restrictions, prioritizing physical relocations over large gatherings for aid distribution.

Long-Term Reconstruction and Resilience Building

In , the primary area impacted by Cyclone Nisarga's landfall on June 3, 2020, local authorities initiated plans for multi-purpose cyclone shelters, lightning arrestors, and saline water embankments to mitigate future risks from similar events, with implementation targeted for completion within subsequent years following the storm. These measures aimed to enhance structural durability against high winds and flooding, drawing from observed damages to power lines and coastal vegetation during Nisarga, which affected over 167,000 square kilometers of land in . The supported the Sustainable Climate-Resilient Coastal Protection and Management Project, which included community-based initiatives for ecosystem restoration and long-term coastal defenses in vulnerable areas like those hit by Nisarga, emphasizing natural barriers such as mangroves to reduce and impacts. Post-storm assessments highlighted the role of mangroves in buffering effects, prompting calls for their conservation and replanting along the -Gujarat coast to restore natural , as Nisarga's winds degraded shoreline vegetation and accelerated in affected zones. Community-led efforts complemented state actions, such as in Bandarwadi village, where residents, aided by NGOs, reconstructed access roads using local labor and materials by early 2025, fostering and incorporating basic drainage improvements to withstand recurrent monsoons and cyclones. Additionally, Maharashtra's government approved enhanced underground cabling projects costing approximately ₹390 in coastal districts including and , prioritizing cyclone-resistant power infrastructure to prevent outages like those experienced during Nisarga, which disrupted electricity for thousands. These initiatives reflected a broader push for disaster-resilient , informed by Nisarga's relatively low human toll—three fatalities in —attributed to evacuations but underscoring vulnerabilities in aging coastal assets, with ongoing evaluations recommending integrated early warning systems and elevated building codes for future-proofing.

Scientific Assessments and Lessons Learned

The (IMD) conducted a post-event confirming that Nisarga's from a on June 1, 2020, to a severe cyclonic storm by June 3 was driven by sea surface temperatures of 30-32°C, heat potential exceeding 100 kJ/cm², and low vertical of 10-15 knots. Peak reached sustained winds of 110-120 km/h (60 knots), gusting to 130 km/h (70 knots), with a minimum central of 984 hPa recorded at 0600 UTC on June 3. The storm's track spanned 1294 km, making near (18.35°N, 72.95°E) between 0700-0900 UTC on June 3, accompanied by storm surges of 0.5-1.0 m in and heavy rainfall totals up to 19 cm in . Forecast verification revealed high accuracy in IMD predictions: track errors averaged 59.7 km at 12-hour (67% ) and 111.6 km at 24 hours (73% ), with landfall point errors of 7.8 km (12 hours) and 33.1 km (24 hours), and time errors of 0-1 hour. Intensity forecasts showed absolute errors of 2.9 knots at 12 hours (80% ) and 3.3 knots at 24 hours (89% ), outperforming historical benchmarks despite inconsistent model guidance. Observational from IMD stations recorded peak gusts of 110 km/h at and 102 km/h at , validating the intensity estimates. Peer-reviewed studies further elucidated Nisarga's structure, including wind profiles measured from May 31 to June 5, 2020, which indicated evolving vertical and directional shifts during , aiding understanding of near-surface dynamics in urban coastal settings. Reanalysis using ECMWF ERA5 data reconstructed the track with mean errors of approximately 31 km, confirming dynamical features like pre- and post- asymmetry influenced by orographic effects from the . These assessments highlighted the cyclone's atypical northward path in the , contrasting with dominant Bay of Bengal activity. Key lessons emphasized refining numerical models to better capture air-sea interactions for forecasts, as Arabian Sea warming has enabled stronger systems with extended inland reach. IMD's early pre-cyclone watch issuance 80 hours prior and adoption of district-specific wind warnings with live GIS tracking demonstrated effective enhancements in dissemination, reducing potential impacts in densely populated areas like . Future monitoring protocols recommend intensified surveillance of the basin, integrating high-resolution observations to mitigate underprediction risks in low-shear environments conducive to explosive growth.

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