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Great Sea Interconnector

The Great Sea Interconnector is a (HVDC) submarine electricity project designed to interconnect the power grids of (via ), , and through a 1,208-kilometer underwater cable, marking it as the world's longest and deepest subsea power link with depths reaching 3,000 meters. Initially focused on the Crete-Cyprus segment of 898 kilometers, the bidirectional link offers a transmission capacity of 1,000 megawatts, expandable to 2,000 megawatts, to facilitate energy exchange equivalent to powering over three million households. Formerly known as the EuroAsia Interconnector, the project—estimated at €1.9 billion—was rebranded in under the oversight of Greece's Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO), a special-purpose established to handle implementation and financing. Designated a Project of Common Interest by the , it aims to terminate Cyprus's longstanding energy isolation by integrating it into the continental grid, enhancing security of supply, promoting exports from the , and yielding economic benefits including reduced costs for consumers projected at €8 billion over decades. Construction commenced in December , with securing a €1.43 billion for the Greece-Cyprus cable section, following feasibility studies dating back to 2012 and EU funding allocations such as €657 million from the Connecting Europe Facility. Despite these advancements, the initiative encounters significant hurdles, including geopolitical strains in the , disputes over maritime boundaries, and domestic opposition in citing excessive costs relative to the island's 1,400-megawatt grid capacity and risks of over-reliance on imported energy amid regional conflicts involving . As of late 2025, while seabed surveys progressed in mid-2024, completion timelines remain uncertain, with earlier EU targets for 2025 appearing optimistic amid financing gaps and bilateral tensions between and over project leadership and equity shares.

Regional Energy Context

Cyprus's Energy Challenges

Cyprus relies entirely on imported and for , as the island lacks domestic resources and operates without interconnections to neighboring systems. This dependence exposes the power sector to global price volatility, amplifying costs amid subsidies that strain public finances. Electricity prices in Cyprus rank among the EU's highest, driven by fuel import expenses; in the second half of 2024, household rates averaged €0.3251 per kWh, exceeding the EU average of €0.2872 per kWh, while non-household prices reached €0.2578 per kWh. As the sole EU member state without grid links to other countries, Cyprus faces heightened blackout risks from isolated system constraints, evidenced by the 2012 island-wide outage from a power plant fault, 2023 disruptions tied to renewable integration overloads, and 2025 incidents from transformer failures and peak demand. To address fuel vulnerabilities, pursued a at Vasilikos for cleaner s and integration, but persistent delays from design flaws, unsafe materials, and setbacks have postponed operations beyond 2026, risking €67 million in recovery and underscoring limits. These hurdles sustain reliance, constraining diversification despite initial progress on receiving .

Greece's Grid Integration Role

serves as the northern terminus for the Great Sea Interconnector, with the (HVDC) cable landing in before linking to the mainland via the established Attica-Crete interconnection, thereby bridging isolated systems to the broader European grid. This configuration enables bidirectional electricity flows, enhancing system stability and allowing to act as an intermediate hub for power exchange between , , and . The Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) of assumed the role of project promoter on October 6, 2023, overseeing integration into the national grid which is already interconnected with Balkan neighbors such as and , facilitating access to the Continental Europe Synchronous Area. The Attica-Crete HVDC link, operational in trial phase as of May 2025 with full commercial service anticipated by September 2025, provides a technical precedent for the interconnector's subsea components, demonstrating Greece's capacity to manage long-distance underwater transmission. This 1,000 MW bipolar system spans 335 km, including 330 km submarine cable at depths up to 1,200 meters, utilizing ±500 kV voltage source converter (VSC) technology for efficient power transfer. By successfully implementing this connection, Greece mitigates perceived risks associated with the longer Cyprus-to-Crete segment, leveraging proven expertise in HVDC deployment to support the multi-terminal 1,000 MW initial capacity of the Great Sea project. HVDC technology in these interconnections minimizes transmission losses compared to alternating current (AC) systems, particularly over extended distances, with losses typically around 3-4% per 1,000 km versus higher AC dissipation, enabling more reliable integration of variable renewable sources into Greece's . This setup positions Crete as a strategic for diversifying routes, reducing reliance on Balkan overland dependencies and enhancing overall resilience through controlled flows and black-start capabilities inherent to VSC-HVDC. Empirical outcomes from the Attica-Crete project, including halved CO2 emissions from reduced fossil fuel backups on , underscore the logistical advantages of Greece's established for the interconnector's northern integration.

Israel's Energy Export Capacity

Israel's electricity sector has increasingly relied on since major offshore discoveries in the (2009) and (2010) fields, with comprising about 70% of total generation by 2024. This transition from imported fuels to domestic production has yielded surplus capacity, as Israel's gas output exceeded domestic consumption, enabling exports of approximately 10 billion cubic meters in 2022, representing revenues over NIS 1.5 billion. By 2024, exports to and accounted for nearly 50% of production, underscoring the feasibility of diverting excess gas toward for international transmission. The Great Sea Interconnector's Stage 2 extension to positions the country to export surplus directly, leveraging gas-fired plants to produce power for bidirectional flow without the infrastructure costs of gas or pipelines such as the EastMed . This approach allows conversion of gas reserves into at source, transmitted via (HVDC) cable, avoiding intermediary processing and enhancing efficiency for distant markets. The planned capacity reaches 2,000 MW in Stage 2, sufficient to supply equivalent to powering three million households, thereby integrating Israel's with those of and for enhanced regional energy trade. This export potential bolsters Israel's economic leverage, as confirmed by ongoing commitments, including agreements in 2025 to advance the cable laying connecting Israel to via .

Hydrocarbon Foundations

Major Gas Field Discoveries

The discovery of significant reserves in the , particularly offshore and , has underpinned the rationale for interconnectors like the Great Sea project by enabling gas-to-power conversion for regional exports. 's field, discovered in 2010 by (now NewMed Energy), holds proven recoverable reserves of approximately 22 trillion cubic feet (TCF), with commercial production commencing on December 31, 2019, supplying domestic needs and enabling exports to and . The earlier field, discovered in 2009 off 's coast, contains around 10 TCF and entered production in 2013, further bolstering 's capacity to generate surplus from local gas resources. Cyprus's Aphrodite field, identified in late 2011 in Block 12 by , is estimated to hold 3.5–4.5 TCF of recoverable gas, representing the island's first major offshore find but remaining undeveloped as of 2024 due to investment and geopolitical hurdles. Subsequent discoveries include in , announced by in 2019 with an estimated 3.7 TCF, confirmed by appraisal drilling in 2022, though production timelines remain uncertain amid ongoing exploration. Collectively, these fields contribute to over 70 TCF of discovered recoverable gas in the since 2009, with Israel's operational output directly supporting power generation that could feed into undersea cables for export to via , reducing reliance on imported fuels. Cyprus's reserves, while promising for local and electricity, face delays that highlight the interconnector's potential role in monetizing stranded gas through cross-border transmission. The utilization of from fields, such as those and , supports the interconnector's economic rationale through its conversion into in high-efficiency combined-cycle (CCGT) plants. These plants achieve thermal efficiencies of up to 60%, significantly surpassing the 30-40% efficiency of Cyprus's existing s operating on imported heavy fuel oil or gasoil. This process involves combusting gas in a to generate , with recovered to produce steam for a secondary , thereby maximizing output per unit of fuel input. In , transitioning to gas-fired generation via planned CCGT facilities like the Vasilikos and plants would lower costs by substituting cheaper, locally accessible or regionally imported gas for liquid fuels, which currently dominate the island's isolated and contribute to elevated wholesale prices. Gas-based generation reduces variable costs through lower fuel prices and higher efficiency, enabling to curtail its dependence on volatile international oil markets while providing baseload power essential for stability, as intermittent renewables alone cannot reliably meet demand peaks. The facilitates monetization of this gas by enabling bidirectional flows, allowing surplus low-cost —generated from regional gas at marginal costs below averages—to be exported northward to and onward to continental markets. Israel's offshore fields, for instance, supply domestic CCGT plants with competitively priced gas, creating opportunities as exported commands premiums in energy-importing amid supply constraints. This pathway unlocks value from otherwise stranded reserves by leveraging the 's 1,000 MW initial capacity for multi-directional trade, prioritizing fossil gas for reliable baseload over less dispatchable options like blending, which remains prospective and secondary to immediate viability.

Technical Infrastructure

Cable Design and Capacity

The Great Sea Interconnector comprises a (HVDC) subsea cable system spanning approximately 1,208 kilometers, including a 900-kilometer segment linking to and a roughly 308-kilometer extension from to . This bipolar HVDC configuration utilizes mass-impregnated cables rated at 525 kV, manufactured by , to achieve a total of up to 2,000 megawatts. Engineered for extreme marine conditions, the cables are buried at depths reaching 3,000 meters to protect against environmental hazards and seismic activity prevalent in the . converters (VSCs) integrated at converter stations enable precise control of active and reactive power, providing grid stabilization, frequency regulation, and black-start functionality essential for isolated systems like Cyprus's. The design incorporates (XLPE) insulation advancements, supporting a projected operational lifespan exceeding 40 years under continuous high-load conditions. Bidirectional power flow facilitates flexible exchange, allowing surplus —such as from Israel's natural gas fields or Greece's renewables—to support deficits elsewhere, with fault redundancy ensured through dual-pole operation and empirical modeling derived from surveys of similar deep-water routes. Multi-terminal VSC-HVDC minimizes losses over the extended distance, with efficiency maintained above 95% through optimized conductor sizing and thermal management validated in prior HVDC projects.

Phased Implementation Plans

The Great Sea Interconnector's implementation proceeds in sequential stages, with Stage 1 focusing on the Crete-Cyprus connection to establish an initial 1,000 MW bidirectional (HVDC) link. This phase prioritizes integrating , the last non-interconnected EU member state, into the wider grid, allowing desynchronization from its isolated system and enhanced incorporation. The link spans approximately 898 km, with converter stations at each terminus facilitating synchronization with national transmission networks. Stage 1 capacity is designed for expandability, serving as the foundation for subsequent enhancements while undergoing operational testing to ensure stability in the Mediterranean's variable conditions. Upon completion, this phase enables electricity flows that support and reduce reliance on isolated generation. Stage 2 extends the interconnector to , adding an additional 1,000 MW to achieve a total capacity of 2,000 MW through a further Cyprus- segment. This expansion, planned after Stage 1 validation, incorporates additional converter stations in and upgraded facilities in to handle increased bidirectional flows and align with regional grid protocols. The phased approach ensures progressive scalability, with each stage building on prior infrastructure for fault-tolerant operations amid the region's tectonic challenges.

Economic and Financial Dimensions

Project Costs and Funding Mechanisms

The Great Sea Interconnector project, encompassing the initial Cyprus-to-Crete segment, has an estimated of €1.9 billion. This figure covers the 898 km subsea (HVDC) link, including submarine cables, converter stations, and associated infrastructure. The full envisioned interconnection extending to is projected to reach up to €2.5 billion, though construction remains focused on the Cyprus-Crete phase as of 2025. Cost breakdowns allocate approximately 60% to submarine cables and HVDC converters, 20% to and laying operations, with the remainder for permitting, engineering, and onshore facilities. In July 2023, secured a €1.43 billion for manufacturing and installing the 900 km submarine cables, marking the largest such award in the project's history and representing a significant portion of the cable-related expenditures. Additional financing includes loans from the (EIB), though specific amounts for this project remain tied to ongoing reviews post-2025. Funding mechanisms combine public grants, national contributions, and private investment through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) established by 's Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) in 2024. The provided €657 million via the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) in 2022, specifically for the -Crete segment's first phase estimated at €1.57 billion. commits over €200 million, funded through electricity tariffs and direct annual payments of €25 million for five years starting in 2024. Under the Cross-Border Cost Allocation agreement, bears 63% of costs, with covering 37% via equity and regulatory approvals for cost recovery. participates through equity stakes in the extension phase, though details for that branch are pending further agreements.

Cost-Benefit Evaluations and Critiques

A cost-benefit analysis conducted for the Great Sea Interconnector's Cyprus-Israel section, presented by the Greek transmission operator IPTO in July 2025 and prepared by Exergia and the , projected positive (NPV) outcomes primarily through energy cost reductions for , estimated at over €300 million annually in electricity bill savings via interconnection-enabled imports and reduced reliance on isolated . The study assumed operational completion around 2030, incorporating low discount rates to favor long-term benefits from grid integration and potential exports, while modeling revenue streams from capacity auctions and between low-cost Israeli gas-fired power and higher Cypriot or prices. Critics, including financial officials, have highlighted opaque modeling assumptions, such as the optimistic 2030 timeline amid ongoing delays and geopolitical risks, which could erode projected NPVs if commissioning slips to 2032 or later as indicated in recent reassessments. Low discount rates in the analysis—typically 2-4% in EU-aligned evaluations—amplify future savings but undervalue immediate capital outlays and execution uncertainties, potentially overstating viability for ratepayers in , where consumers would bear interconnection tariffs post-completion. Historical data on subsea HVDC projects reveal frequent cost overruns of 20-50%, driven by seabed complexities, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory hurdles, as seen in North Sea and Baltic interconnections; for the Great Sea Interconnector, such escalations from the €1.9 billion baseline could impose disproportionate burdens on Cypriot households via higher tariffs, especially if export revenues falter amid volatile natural gas prices. Audits and Cypriot government reviews have questioned the reliability of arbitrage-based payback, noting that sustained low Israeli gas prices—tied to Leviathan field output—may not materialize under global demand pressures, rendering the interconnector less competitive against Cyprus's viable LNG import alternatives like floating terminals. Basic economic reasoning underscores that interconnection benefits hinge on persistent price differentials; without them, the project's isolated NPV could turn negative, prioritizing empirical price forecasts over modeled optimism.

EU Policy Framework

Status as Project of Common Interest

The Great Sea Interconnector was designated a (PCI) by the in the fourth PCI list published on 31 October 2019, with its status reaffirmed in the fifth list via Delegated () 2022/564 of 19 November 2021, reclassifying it under PCI 2.6. This designation under the Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E) framework grants procedural benefits, including accelerated permitting timelines, priority cross-border coordination, and access to dedicated funding streams such as the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). In January 2022, the allocated €657 million from the CEF specifically for the Greece-Cyprus cable segment, representing the largest single CEF energy grant at the time and underscoring the project's priority within infrastructure initiatives. The PCI status aligns the interconnector with TEN-E objectives to enhance cross-border electricity flows, including the EU target for member states to achieve at least 15% interconnection capacity by 2030, thereby facilitating Cyprus's integration from its current energy island status into the wider European grid. Project oversight is managed by the Great Sea Interconnector Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), a subsidiary established by Greece's Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) in January 2024 to handle implementation, financing, and compliance reporting. EU mechanisms include periodic audits and progress monitoring to verify adherence to TEN-E criteria, though the framework imposes no binding veto on participating nations' decisions to pause or withdraw involvement.

Claimed Environmental and Security Rationales

The is promoted by the as facilitating the integration of sources across , , and , purportedly enabling a "significant reduction in CO₂ emissions" through optimized cross-border electricity flows that minimize curtailment of intermittent renewables. advocates, including the Greek transmission IPTO, assert this will enhance in utilizing variable and generation, displacing higher-emission local production in isolated systems like '. However, such environmental rationales remain contingent on future renewable build-out and operational patterns; empirical assessments indicate initial benefits would likely stem from importing natural gas-fired electricity from 's field-linked plants, which emit approximately 400-500 g CO₂/kWh compared to 800-1,000 g CO₂/kWh for ' and diesel generators, yielding verifiable displacement of oil imports but not a transition away from fossil fuels overall. Claims of annual CO₂ savings on the order of 1 million tons, as occasionally referenced in promotional materials, lack independent peer-reviewed validation and overstate impacts without accounting for losses (estimated at 3-5% over 1,200 km) or potential reinforcement of gas dependency. On security grounds, the designates the project a Project of Common Interest to address ' energy isolation, connecting its grid to the continental system for enhanced supply reliability and diversification amid global disruptions like the 2022 Russian gas curtailments to . This rationale posits bidirectional 2,000 MW capacity as a hedge against local fuel import vulnerabilities, with —dependent on seaborne deliveries—gaining access to Israel's gas reserves and Greece's interconnections, theoretically stabilizing prices and availability during crises. Yet, reveals limitations: subsea HVDC cables spanning contested waters introduce single-point failure risks from seismic activity, maintenance challenges, or deliberate interference, contrasting with more national options like ' pursued LNG terminals or decentralized solar-plus-storage, which avoid geographic over-reliance on a 1,200 km link prone to outages exceeding those of diversified local infrastructure. emphasis on interconnection overlooks these hazards, prioritizing supranational integration despite evidence from prior projects (e.g., links) showing vulnerability to threats without commensurate gains for small islands.

Development Timeline

Early Conceptualization and Agreements

The EuroAsia Interconnector project, later rebranded as the Great Sea Interconnector, was first publicly announced on January 23, 2012, in by Nasos Ktorides, emphasizing Cyprus's potential role as an energy hub linking and Asia via subsea electricity cables. This conceptualization arose amid growing interest in Eastern Mediterranean discoveries, such as Israel's field confirmed in 2010, prompting discussions on regional energy infrastructure to integrate isolated grids like Cyprus's with . Initial political backing materialized through the trilateral partnership established between , , and , formalized via a signed on August 8, 2013, in , which encompassed energy cooperation including electricity interconnections. The first formal tripartite summit occurred on January 28, 2016, in , where leaders reaffirmed commitment to the interconnector as a means to end Cyprus's energy isolation and enhance grid stability for all parties. In January 2016, the Italian Odin Finder conducted a survey to identify the optimal subsea route, addressing early concerns over Mediterranean depths exceeding 3,000 meters and strong currents. Feasibility studies progressed in 2017, with technical assessments confirming the viability of a (HVDC) system capable of transmitting up to 2,000 MW, despite challenges posed by the route's length—approximately 1,518 km—and seabed conditions; Cyprus granted environmental approval that year. Initial cost estimates for the project hovered around €1.5 billion, reflecting pre-construction projections for the core interconnection linking Hadera in to and in via . The project's momentum accelerated with its inclusion in the European Union's Projects of Common Interest (PCI) lists, starting from the inaugural 2013 list during its pre-feasibility phase and reaffirmed in the 2019 fourth list, providing access to funding and regulatory support as a priority for European . This status underscored the interconnector's role in bridging non-interconnected islands to the mainland grid, though skeptics noted persistent technical risks from extreme depths and seismic activity in the region.

Key Contracts and Construction Advances

In July 2023, EuroAsia Interconnector Ltd awarded a €1.43 billion contract for the (HVDC) cable system connecting to , spanning approximately 900 km at depths up to 3,000 meters, marking the longest and deepest subsea power cables ever laid with a 2,000 MW bidirectional capacity. The contract encompasses design, manufacturing, installation, and commissioning, integrating converter (VSC) technology for multi-terminal operation. In October 2023, Greece's Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO, or ADMIE) acquired full ownership of the project from EuroAsia Interconnector Ltd for €48 million, redesignating IPTO as the project promoter to accelerate implementation amid prior delays. In January 2024, IPTO established Great Sea Interconnector S.A., a special purpose vehicle (SPV) dedicated to project execution, financing, and oversight of the Crete-Cyprus segment as the initial phase. Progress on marine surveys advanced through 2022-2023, with preparatory seabed route assessments supporting the contract's engineering phase, though full geophysical surveys remained pending detailed permitting in Greek and exclusive economic zones (EEZs). In June 2023, Cyprus's Regulatory (CERA) issued an interconnection line owner license to EuroAsia Interconnector Ltd, facilitating regulatory alignment for cable laying in waters. These steps synchronized with Greece's ongoing Crete-Attica HVDC upgrades, targeted for completion by mid-2025 to enable seamless integration. The had approved €657 million in grants under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) in January 2022 for the first phase, with initial disbursements supporting 2023 contract awards and preparatory works. This funding complemented Cyprus's €100 million allocation from its Recovery and Resilience Plan for interconnector development.

2024-2025 Delays and Reassessments

In March 2025, the Great Sea Interconnector project was officially placed on hold, with Greece's independent ADMIE temporarily suspending payments to for cable manufacturing amid mounting financial and regulatory challenges. This pause followed delays in securing necessary seabed survey licenses, rendering the original completion target of 2030 uncertain and prompting initial reassessments of the project's feasibility. In April 2025, Greece's convened to deliberate on the project's future, evaluating strategic implications and potential adjustments to its scope. By June, ADMIE sought compensation exceeding €250 million from authorities for survey delays, highlighting escalating cost disputes tied to licensing bottlenecks. July 2025 saw stalling ministerial approval for funding mechanisms, with disputes centering on structures and the island's capped annual contribution of €25 million from 2025 to 2030, as doubts mounted over long-term economic viability and risk allocation. In August, issued a statement clarifying its position in response to media reports questioning project viability, affirming no formal cancellation but noting dependency on resolved agreements for resuming production. Ongoing reassessments through October 2025 have focused on narrowing the scope to a bilateral Greece-Cyprus link, exemplified by Cyprus's regulator transferring ownership and management licenses from promoter EuroAsia Interconnector to ADMIE on October 13, while the full trilateral extension to remains in limbo amid persistent financial probes by the . These developments underscore heightened scrutiny of cost-benefit ratios, with no firm resumption timeline established.

Geopolitical Obstacles

Turkey's Territorial Claims and Actions

Turkey's naval forces intercepted and shadowed survey vessels conducting seabed reconnaissance for the Great Sea Interconnector in the during early 2025. In February 2025, a Turkish monitored and harassed research ships, including the Gibraltar-flagged Ievoli, operating east of the Greek islands of and in areas within Cyprus's and Greece's asserted exclusive economic zones (EEZs), prompting complaints from project operators about with surveys. This followed initial surveys planned for the same region, which Turkish officials deemed a violation of based on Ankara's claims that exclude full EEZ generation by islands. Such actions extended into mid-2025, with Turkish warships continuing to track and challenge project-related vessels through August. On August 8, 2025, Turkey halted operations of the survey ship Gauss in waters it claims as part of its , overlapping with and EEZ assertions, as the vessel conducted route assessments for undersea infrastructure crossing these zones; justified the intervention by citing unauthorized activity in disputed areas. Turkish authorities described the Great Sea Interconnector as "provocative " that disregards Turkey's rights in the region, issuing statements that it would not permit initiatives bypassing its maritime interests. These interventions align with a historical pattern of obstructions tied to 's non-recognition of the Republic of 's EEZ, including similar naval deployments against EastMed gas pipeline surveys in Cypriot-claimed waters since 2019. In that case, Turkish warships escorted drillships and shadowed exploration vessels to assert overlapping claims derived from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, effectively delaying operations in contested blocks. has invoked its 2019 maritime with 's to delineate zones extending into areas and view as their own, framing these as "grey zone" entitlements that justify presence and veto power over third-party projects.

Maritime Law Disputes and Regional Tensions

The legal framework for submarine power cables in the derives principally from the Convention on the (UNCLOS), ratified by in 1995, in 1988, and in 2019. Articles 58(1) and 79(1) affirm the freedom of states to lay submarine cables within exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and on the continental shelf, without requiring prior consent from the coastal state, though subject to "due regard" for its rights, reasonable measures for route designation, and avoidance of interference with navigation or fisheries. This regime, rooted in predating UNCLOS, prioritizes global connectivity over unilateral vetoes, with coastal states empowered only to regulate laying processes post-notification rather than prohibit projects outright. Turkey, which signed UNCLOS in 1982 but has not ratified it, explicitly rejects the convention's application in the semi-enclosed Mediterranean, contending that its equidistance-based delimitation principles unfairly favor island states like and at the expense of continental geography, and insisting on equitable bilateral negotiations instead. In the absence of delimited maritime boundaries—particularly in the Aegean and Levantine Basin, where asserts overlapping claims with and —the interconnector's route through purported Cypriot and Greek EEZs raises questions of compatibility with these assertions. While UNCLOS parties view cable laying as permissible absent agreed delimitations, provided routes respect provisional lines or median principles, non-parties like invoke customary equity to challenge such activities, creating interpretive friction without a binding adjudicatory mechanism involving all stakeholders. No established precedent under mandates consent from disputing non-parties for cables in undelimited zones, underscoring reliance on diplomatic over enforceable prohibitions. These disputes amplify regional instability by intertwining energy infrastructure with unresolved claims, fostering zero-sum perceptions where the Greece-Cyprus-Israel trilateral—focused on and —clashes with Turkey's exclusion from shared resources, often framed through alliances like potential Turkey-Qatar energy ties. The causal interplay risks inadvertent escalations, such as navigational hazards or resource competition, in flashpoints like the Aegean, yet empirically reveals voids: UNCLOS's dispute provisions (e.g., ITLOS) bind only parties, leaving customary protections vulnerable to power asymmetries and unilateral assertions in contested waters. This dynamic highlights how legal ambiguities in semi-enclosed seas perpetuate tensions, prioritizing de facto stability over rigid application of treaty norms amid -driven realignments.

Prospective Outcomes and Risks

Energy Security and Economic Gains

The Great Sea Interconnector, with an initial capacity of 1,000 MW expandable to 2,000 MW, will integrate Cyprus's isolated grid into the European network, thereby ending the island's longstanding energy isolation and enhancing supply through bidirectional electricity flows. This connection will enable to import power during or shortages, reducing reliance on costly local and diesel generation, which currently drives some of the highest prices in the . Economic analyses project annual savings of approximately €300 million on 's electricity bills by facilitating access to lower-cost wholesale markets and optimizing generation. Regionally, the project leverages Israel's abundant natural gas reserves, such as those from the field, to generate and export stable baseload electricity, mitigating price volatility exacerbated by events like the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war energy disruptions. The interconnector's multi-terminal design allows efficient power exchange among , , and Greece's grid, fostering market integration and enabling to export surplus during off-peak periods, potentially yielding net economic gains through trade. On a broader scale, the 2,000 MW capacity equates to the average needs of over 3 million households, contributing to EU-wide diversification away from Russian imports by opening southern Mediterranean routes for reliable supply. As a designated Project of Common Interest, it aligns with goals for secure, affordable energy, with the noting its role in reducing dependency on volatile external sources post-2022.

Geopolitical, Financial, and Operational Hazards

The Great Sea Interconnector's subsea route traverses contested maritime zones in the , heightening geopolitical hazards from potential sabotage by state actors, as evidenced by Turkey's territorial claims asserting the cable encroaches on its . A U.S. analysis in December 2024 flagged elevated risks of Turkish interference, including deliberate cable severance, drawing parallels to documented incidents of regional disruption. Subsea power cables generally exhibit vulnerabilities to intentional damage, with state-backed operations requiring specialized vessels and for location but capable of inflicting outages lasting weeks amid repair backlogs. Recent precedents, such as Baltic Sea cable cuts attributed to hybrid threats, underscore how contested waters amplify such risks without robust multilateral deterrence. Financially, the project faces overrun potentials exceeding initial €1.9 billion estimates for the Greece- segment alone, with bearing disproportionate exposure in a small reliant on uncertain exports. Minister Makis Keravnos warned in 2025 of funding risks, citing opaque total costs and viability doubts amid fluctuating energy markets that could render exports unprofitable if prices crash. An independent study in December 2024 identified inadequate profitability for investors under promoter terms, potentially saddling taxpayers with billions in guarantees or sunk costs if demand falters. Geopolitical delays have already escalated pre-construction expenses, with obligated to cover €25 million in 2025 for prior Greek outlays, compounding fiscal strain without assured returns. Operationally, the 's path through seismically active Mediterranean faults poses rupture threats, as lies in a high-hazard zone with historical events like the 1896-2018 catalog documenting frequent tremors capable of displacing undersea infrastructure. Probabilistic assessments confirm elevated seismic probabilities, where undersea quakes or slumps account for up to 10% of global faults, demanding costly and monitoring unproven at the project's 1,000+ km depth extremes. Partial implementation risks grid desynchronization, as asynchronous HVDC links could cascade failures across 's , while annual maintenance—encompassing inspections and repairs in hazardous depths—imposes ongoing multimillion-euro burdens without specified offsets in project economics.

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