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Federales

The Federales, colloquially referring to Mexico's federal law enforcement personnel, most prominently designates the Policía Federal, a national civil police force established in 1999 through the merger of the Federal Highway Police and Fiscal Police under the Secretariat of Public Security. This agency was tasked with combating organized crime, drug trafficking, and federal offenses, expanding significantly during Felipe Calderón's 2006–2012 administration amid the escalation of the Mexican Drug War. The term traces its cultural origins to the Federal Army (Ejército Federal) of the Porfiriato era (1876–1911) and the subsequent Mexican Revolution, where "federales" denoted government troops enforcing central authority against revolutionaries. The Policía Federal grew to over 36,000 officers by 2010, deploying in high-risk operations and supporting military efforts against cartels, yet it faced persistent challenges including widespread corruption, infiltration by criminal organizations, and inadequate training. Empirical assessments highlight systemic issues such as low public trust—polls consistently ranking police among the least credible institutions—and documented involvement in , with , and violations including arbitrary detentions and . In 2019, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador disbanded the force amid criticism of its ineffectiveness, reallocating most personnel to the newly formed , a military-civilian entity under civilian oversight in theory but operationally militarized. This transition reflected broader frustrations with policing's failure to curb violence, which surged from approximately 10,000 homicides annually pre-2006 to over 30,000 by the late , underscoring causal links between institutional weaknesses and persistent insecurity. Despite notable seizures of narcotics and arrests of high-profile traffickers, the Federales' legacy is marred by operational scandals, such as the 2014 Tlatlaya massacre where soldiers under federal coordination executed suspected criminals, and internal purges revealing cartel moles. Reforms attempted professionalization through vetting and better pay, but rates exceeding 90% for abuses perpetuated a cycle of distrust and inefficiency, privileging short-term enforcement over sustainable rule-of-law building. In historical context, the term evokes the repressive tactics of Díaz's federales, who maintained order via the —a mounted federal founded in 1861—foreshadowing modern force's struggles with legitimacy and accountability.

Historical Development

Origins in the 19th Century

Following Mexico's in 1821, the country experienced chronic political fragmentation and economic disruption, fostering widespread rural banditry that undermined commerce, travel, and central governance. For nearly half a century, fragmented state militias proved inadequate against gangs exploiting remote terrains and weak authority, as local forces prioritized regional loyalties over national order. This instability intensified after the (1857–1861), with demobilized soldiers contributing to amid ongoing liberal-conservative conflicts. To address these threats, President decreed the creation of the Guardia Rural—federal mounted police corps—on May 6, 1861, initially forming four units tasked with securing major roadways such as those from to and . The force aimed to centralize enforcement by recruiting discharged soldiers, thereby reducing military overhead while curbing that directly impeded trade and administrative control. Early operations yielded mixed results, with units like the Fourth Corps suffering losses—such as 30 men killed in a single 1861 ambush near —highlighting the scale of entrenched outlawry. The Rurales played a stabilizing role by patrolling vulnerable routes and suppressing insurgent bands, evolving into a core instrument of federal authority under Juárez's liberal regime. During the French Intervention (1862–1867), surviving elements integrated into republican irregular forces, aiding resistance against imperial occupation while maintaining internal security against bandit exploitation of wartime chaos. By 1871, the corps had expanded to seven units, demonstrating a pragmatic shift toward sustained centralized policing amid persistent rural threats.

The Rurales and Porfiriato Era

The Guardia Rural, known as the , was established on May 6, 1861, by President as a federal mounted police force tasked with combating widespread rural that disrupted travel, commerce, and agricultural production in post-independence . Initially limited to small, under-resourced units amid ongoing civil strife and French intervention, the Rurales lacked the scale to fully control bandit groups operating in remote areas during the 1860s and 1870s. Porfirio Díaz's seizure of power in November 1876 marked a turning point, as he reorganized and expanded the to enforce centralized authority during the era (1876–1911), viewing them as a disciplined counterweight to both the and fragmented local militias. By the early 1880s, the force had grown through recruitment of former bandits and military personnel into multiple corps totaling around 1,800–2,000 men, equipped with modern rifles and horses for rapid deployment across haciendas and frontiers. The Rurales achieved notable success in eradicating endemic , reducing reported rural crimes by imposing swift federal interventions that local authorities—often compromised by or complicity with networks—had failed to address. This pacification enabled the expansion of economic infrastructure, including over 15,000 kilometers of railroads constructed between 1876 and 1910, which previously faced constant and raids. Employing authoritarian methods such as legal provisions for on-site executions of suspected bandits without , the extended their operations to suppress critics and unrest, drawing accusations of excessive repression from contemporaries and later historians. Yet empirical outcomes—verifiable drops in highway robberies and caravan attacks—stemmed primarily from the force's mobility and accountability to , overriding parochial loyalties that perpetuated disorder under decentralized governance, rather than repression alone.

Post-Revolutionary Reforms

The , the mounted rural police force established during the to maintain order in remote areas, were officially disbanded by revolutionary forces following the collapse of Victoriano Huerta's regime in July 1914. This action dismantled the primary federal mechanism for combating and enforcing order outside urban centers, coinciding with the dissolution of the amid widespread revolutionary upheaval. The ensuing civil war phase of the Revolution (1914–1920) compelled reliance on irregular, ad-hoc federal armies drawn from victorious factions under leaders like Venustiano Carranza, which prioritized armed suppression of rival groups over systematic law enforcement. The 1917 Constitution's Article 21 established the Ministerio Público Federal to oversee criminal investigations, supported by auxiliary judicial police tasked with executing arrests and inquiries into federal offenses, laying a constitutional basis for investigative policing amid persistent instability. Reforms in the sought to rebuild federal capacities, including the reorganization of rural defense units into the Rural Defense Corps in to counter lingering banditry and agrarian unrest. These civilian-oriented initiatives under the Secretaría de Gobernación aimed at specialized investigative roles but yielded limited results, as evidenced by the need for military interventions in uprisings like the Cristero Rebellion (–1929), where army deployments outnumbered police actions and underscored inefficiencies in non-militarized responses. By the 1940s, institutional adaptations accelerated with the establishment of the in 1947 under the Secretaría de Gobernación, consolidating federal intelligence and investigative functions to address emerging threats from organized unrest and early criminal networks. Empirical patterns of sustained — including regional protection rackets documented from the —revealed the constraints of these reforms, perpetuating a dual civil-military policing model where involvement in became normalized due to forces' inadequate capacity to restore order independently.

Federal Law Enforcement Institutions

Policía Federal (1999–2018)

The Policía Federal originated as the Policía Federal Preventiva (PFP) in 1999, established by President through the merger of the Federal Highway Police, Fiscal Police, , and elements of the , initially comprising about 11,000 personnel. This unified agency was designed to enhance coordination in preventing and investigating federal crimes, filling gaps left by fragmented prior structures and aiming to professionalize responses to rising . Under President Felipe Calderón's administration (2006–2012), which initiated a major offensive against drug cartels, the force expanded rapidly to support intensified operations, reaching approximately 36,000 officers by 2008 through recruitment drives and reforms including improved training and equipment. Its jurisdiction encompassed federal offenses such as drug trafficking, , and arms smuggling, enabling nationwide patrols, checkpoints, and raids often integrated with efforts under joint commands. The Policía Federal conducted intelligence-driven operations that contributed to significant arrests, including participation in detaining thousands of affiliates amid overall captures exceeding 121,000 suspects from 2006 to 2009. Notable actions involved disrupting trafficking routes and seizing narcotics, though verifiable successes were frequently collaborative with armed forces due to the agency's limitations in high-risk confrontations. Critiques centered on internal vulnerabilities, with documented infiltration—such as the 2008 revelation of penetration providing intelligence on U.S. agents—exposing that eroded trust and operational security, prompting calls for purges and external oversight. These issues underscored causal factors like inadequate vetting and low salaries fostering , ultimately requiring supplementation to sustain momentum against entrenched narco networks.

Transition to Guardia Nacional (2019–Present)

The administration of President initiated the transition from the Policía Federal by proposing the Guardia Nacional as a centralized force shortly before taking office on December 1, 2018, citing the need to address systemic and inefficacy in existing federal law enforcement. Constitutional reforms creating the Guardia Nacional were approved by the Mexican Congress on February 28, 2019, establishing it as a hybrid civilian-military entity initially under the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC). The force absorbed select personnel and assets from the Policía Federal, which had been plagued by documented cases and abuses, alongside recruits from the (SEDENA) and (SEMAR), with military elements comprising the majority of its initial composition to instill discipline and reduce vulnerability to local criminal infiltration. The dissolution of the Policía Federal, announced for completion by the end of , triggered widespread protests by its officers in July , who blockaded facilities and clashed with over forced , reductions, and threats of dismissal for non-compliance. These actions highlighted operational tensions, as thousands of federal police resisted integration, leading to legal challenges and temporary holdouts, though the proceeded with incorporating compliant elements to form the Guardia Nacional's core. This restructuring reflected an empirical response to pervasive , particularly at municipal and state levels, where national surveys documented perceptions of exceeding 86% among respondents attributing graft to actors. Decentralized forces had demonstrated higher susceptibility to influence and , with victimization data indicating low crime-reporting rates—often below 11%—due to in local integrity. By 2023, the Guardia Nacional had expanded to 126,203 assigned personnel, with administrative and operational control formally transferred to SEDENA in September 2022 via decree, further embedding its militarized framework to prioritize national-level oversight over fragmented civilian policing.

Structure and Jurisdiction

The Guardia Nacional (GN) operates as a centralized under the Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana, with its structure defined by the Ley de la Guardia Nacional and its Reglamento, which outline a hierarchical framework including a general command, operational commanders, territorial coordinators at the state level, and unit coordinators for localized deployment. This organization emphasizes divisions for coordination (overseeing logistics and intelligence sharing), investigation (focusing on offenses like ), and operations (executing patrols and rapid response), enabling unified command over nationwide security tasks without devolving authority to subnational entities. Jurisdiction stems from Article 21 of the Mexican Constitution, granting the GN authority over federal crimes that threaten public security, including organized criminal activities, drug trafficking, , and interstate offenses, while prohibiting overlap with state or in these domains. Unlike state forces, which handle localized violations such as non-federal homicides or petty theft, the GN exercises exclusive federal powers in cases involving multiple jurisdictions or national impact, ensuring centralized response to transnational threats without routine interference in municipal policing. Personnel undergo standardized training in professionalization centers, incorporating from its foundational elements drawn from the Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional, with equipment standards bolstered by post-2008 U.S. assistance under the , which supplied forces with non-intrusive inspection tools, tactical gear, and capacity-building for investigation and operations. This differentiates GN capabilities from under-resourced and municipal units, prioritizing interoperability in high-threat scenarios while adhering to oversight mandates.

Military Involvement in Internal Security

The Mexican Constitution's Article 89 empowers the President to exercise supreme command over the Armed Forces, including their deployment to preserve national independence, security, and internal peace, particularly when civilian institutions prove inadequate against threats like organized crime. This authority has been invoked through administrative decrees rather than explicit statutory mechanisms for routine public security tasks, reflecting a gap between constitutional intent and detailed regulation. Deployments intensified after 2006, when President Felipe Calderón initiated a frontal assault on drug cartels, as civilian police forces—riddled with corruption and infiltration—lacked the capacity to counter escalating violence that saw annual homicides surge from approximately 10,000 in 2007 to over 30,000 by the mid-2010s, driven by cartel territorial disputes and retaliatory killings. In response to judicial and human rights challenges questioning the legality of such uses, Congress enacted the Ley de Seguridad Interior on December 21, 2017, which sought to codify military participation in public security operations by defining "disturbances to internal security" (e.g., cartel activities) and establishing protocols for presidential declarations of emergency, intelligence sharing, and temporary military oversight of arrests and detentions when local forces were overwhelmed. Proponents argued this framework restored rule of law in regions where civilian breakdowns had ceded control to criminal groups, enabling coordinated responses beyond fragmented police efforts. However, the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation invalidated the law on November 15, 2018, in a 4-1 ruling (with three recusals), deeming it unconstitutional for encroaching on civilian jurisdiction, inadequately protecting human rights standards, and failing to transition authority back to police within defined timelines, thus perpetuating ad hoc reliance on military decrees. Post-ruling, military deployments persisted under presidential executive orders grounded in Article 89 and auxiliary laws like the National Public Security Law, justified by ongoing cartel-driven instability that continued to exceed civilian operational thresholds, with homicide rates stabilizing around 30,000 annually into the . A 2022 constitutional amendment, approved by on September 14 and upheld by the on November 29, extended explicit permission for the Armed Forces to perform duties until 2028, framing it as an exceptional measure tied to specific threats rather than indefinite , with data indicating deployment scales correlated to violence peaks rather than permanent entrenchment. Critics contend this risks eroding civilian primacy, yet empirical patterns show surges aligned with cartel escalations, such as post-2006 fragmentation, underscoring deployments as reactive necessities amid persistent institutional voids in non-military policing.

Key Operations Against Organized Crime

In December 2006, shortly after Felipe Calderón's inauguration, Mexican authorities launched , deploying approximately 6,500 army personnel alongside federal agents to target drug trafficking networks in state, focusing on dismantling methamphetamine labs operated by groups like . The operation marked an early escalation of military involvement in anti-cartel efforts, resulting in the seizure of over 20 tons of and the of dozens of suspects, though it also triggered retaliatory violence from cartels. From 2006 to 2012, SEDENA collaborated with the Policía Federal in nationwide joint under the broader anti-drug strategy, including operations in high-violence regions like and , where federal forces conducted thousands of checkpoints and search warrants targeting and strongholds. These efforts led to the capture of key figures, such as the arrest of leader in November 2010 during a SEDENA-led in , which temporarily disrupted smuggling routes along the border. Some analyses of municipal-level data from this period indicate localized homicide reductions of up to 25% in targeted areas immediately following intensified deployments, attributed to disrupted operations, though nationwide violence surged overall. In the 2020s, SEDENA integrated with the Guardia Nacional for operations against factions led by successors to , including incursions in and surrounding areas amid infighting between the Chapitos and other groups. A notable SEDENA-involved action occurred on January 5, 2023, when forces captured , one of El Chapo's sons, in , resulting in clashes that killed at least 29 individuals and injured over 80, with the operation yielding seizures of weapons and vehicles used by enforcers. Ongoing SEDENA-Guardia Nacional patrols in , reinforced by additional troop deployments in 2024-2025, have focused on intercepting labs and migration-related by remnants.

Integration with Civilian Forces

The Mexican , established in 2019, incorporates a hybrid structure with approximately 70 percent of its personnel drawn from units of the (SEDENA) and (SEMAR), supplemented by former Federal Police members, facilitating seamless integration of operational capabilities with civilian protocols. This composition has enabled the Guard to deploy rapidly in high-risk areas where state and municipal civilian forces often lack sufficient resources or face infiltration by criminal groups, allowing for coordinated patrols and checkpoints that leverage alongside federal investigative authority. Intelligence-sharing mechanisms between military commands and civilian agencies, such as the National Intelligence Center (successor to CISEN) and the Federal Attorney General's Office (successor to PGR), have enhanced operational synergies, as demonstrated in the early 2010s dismantlement of the . Joint efforts, including real-time data exchange on cartel movements, contributed to the December 2009 killing of Arturo Beltrán-Leyva and subsequent arrests of key lieutenants like Gerardo Álvarez Vázquez in April 2010, disrupting the group's and trafficking networks. Government data indicate empirical gains from this integration, including heightened drug interdiction efficacy; for instance, Mexican security forces, incorporating Guard elements, reported record fentanyl seizures exceeding one ton in coordinated raids in Sinaloa and Sonora in November 2024, reflecting improved hybrid response capabilities in cartel-dominated zones. Such operations underscore how military-civilian fusion has amplified seizure volumes of synthetic opioids and precursors, with SEDENA attributing surges to integrated deployments since the Guard's formation.

Achievements and Operational Successes

Captures and Dismantling of Cartel Networks

The Policía Federal, in coordination with , played a key role in joint operations that facilitated the apprehension of high-profile figures, demonstrating the efficacy of integrated federal efforts against networks. In July 2011, federal police captured , a founder of and alleged perpetrator of multiple extortion and murder schemes, in the suburb of Santa Martha Acatitla, yielding weapons, cash, and vehicles linked to the group's operations. This arrest exemplified the Federal Police's direct involvement in targeting Zetas leadership, contributing to disruptions in their command structure amid broader campaigns initiated under President . Federal-military intelligence fusion was instrumental in the 2014 capture of leader , where sustained by federal agents and navy units led to his detention on February 22 in , , without gunfire; was found with family members in a hotel condominium. Although the final raid involved , the operation underscored federal contributions to tracking after prior near-misses, such as a 2012 Federal Police raid in Los Cabos that missed him by hours. Similarly, the Zetas network was significantly weakened post-2010 through serial leadership takedowns, including federal detentions of regional commanders like Víctor Manuel Pérez Izquierdo ("El Siete Latas") in , eroding the group's operational cohesion. These efforts resulted in cartel fragmentation, with Zetas splintering into rival factions like the Northeast Cartel, yielding temporary violence increases but enabling state reclamation of territories previously dominated by unified structures. Operations such as the joint Operativo Conjunto -Nuevo León (later expanded as Operación Noreste) further dismantled Zetas cells, with federal police alongside army units detaining hundreds in and neighboring states by 2011, seizing arms caches and disrupting extortion rackets. By 2015, cumulative arrests of Zetas figures, including near , compounded earlier federal actions to hollow out the cartel's hierarchy, reducing its capacity for coordinated attacks on state forces. These successes affirmed the strategic value of federal-led in prioritizing captures over territorial skirmishes, fostering long-term degradation of cartel networks despite adaptive splintering.

Reduction in Specific Crime Metrics

Federal law enforcement operations, particularly through the (1999–2018) and subsequent Guardia Nacional deployments, have been associated with measurable declines in certain metrics in targeted regions. In , intensified interventions correlated with a 76 percent reduction in the rate, from 105 per 100,000 people in 2017 to 26 per 100,000 in 2019, alongside a 94.1 percent drop in firearms-related crimes during the same period. These improvements followed surges in patrols and confrontations, stabilizing violence after earlier escalations from fragmentation. Nationally, homicide trends post-2018 reflect stabilization and incremental reductions linked to sustained presence. The rate fell 5.3 percent in 2023 to 24.5 per 100,000, continuing a four-year downward trajectory amid Guardia Nacional operations covering over 200,000 personnel deployments across high-risk municipalities. From 2018's peak of 33,341 , cumulative declines reached 27 percent by mid-2025, with September 2024 to April 2025 recording 24.9 percent fewer intentional (21 fewer per day) in areas under coordination. Regional data underscores this: saw a 61 percent drop, and the a 43 percent reduction, in the first year of intensified strategies post-2024. Drug seizure metrics further evidence federal operational impacts, with SEDENA and Guardia Nacional logging record volumes that disrupt logistics. Between October 2024 and April 2025, joint forces secured 144 tons of narcotics, including and precursors, exceeding prior annual benchmarks. Over the preceding four years, 5.4 tons of were confiscated, nearly half in through targeted SEDENA raids on precursor labs. Earlier, meth seizures hit 4.7 tons in 2021, a sharp rise from 1.36 tons in 2020, tied to federal intelligence-driven operations. These outcomes stem partly from federal forces' advantages in mobility and firepower, enabling visible deterrence that local police, hampered by corruption and understaffing, cannot match—evident in rapid response times reducing cartel impunity in deployed zones.

International Cooperation Efforts

The , established in 2008 as a bilateral security agreement between the and , has delivered over $3.3 billion in U.S. assistance through fiscal year 2021, funding equipment procurement, programs, and institutional reforms to bolster Mexican forces against drug trafficking organizations. This support encompassed the provision of five Bell helicopters for aerial surveillance and , alongside specialized for thousands of personnel in areas such as vetted development and case management systems. By enhancing logistical and tactical capacities, the initiative facilitated joint targeting of infrastructure, with U.S. contributions emphasizing non-intrusive aid like technical expertise over direct intervention. Collaborative operations with the U.S. (DEA) and have intensified in the , yielding high-profile extraditions that impair leadership and revenue streams. In February 2025, Mexico transferred 29 suspects linked to major s, including Sinaloa figure , to U.S. custody, marking one of the largest such actions in recent history. This was followed by the August 2025 extradition of 26 additional alleged operatives, coordinated amid U.S. pressure on border security threats. Mexico's National Central Bureau supports these efforts through and participation in global operations, enabling arrests via red notices and intelligence fusion on transnational networks. These partnerships have driven measurable gains in border interdiction efficacy, particularly against fentanyl flows. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data indicate fentanyl seizures at southwest ports of entry rose from 1,208 kilograms in fiscal year 2019 to sustained annual increases post-2020, with California's sector alone escalating from 4,790 pounds in 2020 to 27,000 pounds by 2023 due to enhanced bilateral scanning and tip-offs. Such outcomes stem from integrated intelligence mechanisms under frameworks like Mérida, which prioritize real-time cooperation over unilateral actions, though Mexican officials have occasionally contested the framing of specific joint initiatives.

Controversies and Criticisms

Allegations of Human Rights Abuses

The disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' on , 2014, in , , has been cited as a prominent case involving alleged complicity by federal security forces. Investigations by the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI), appointed by the , concluded that facilitated the abductions through inaction and obstruction, including the presence of a nearby that failed to intervene despite reports of attacks. The Mexican government under President later classified the incident as a "crime of the State" in 2022, acknowledging involvement by local, state, and federal actors in collusion with the cartel, though full accountability for federal personnel remains unresolved. Amnesty International documented over 1,000 complaints of torture and ill-treatment by Mexican federal police and military forces during the 2010s, often in counter-narcotics operations, with methods including beatings, electric shocks, and sexual violence against detainees. The U.S. State Department's human rights reports for the period similarly noted widespread allegations of arbitrary detention and excessive force by federal forces, including the Policía Federal, with impunity rates exceeding 90% in investigated cases. These claims have persisted into the National Guard era, with Human Rights Watch reporting instances of extrajudicial executions and enforced disappearances attributed to militarized federal units in 2023-2024. However, such reports from nongovernmental organizations like Amnesty and Human Rights Watch have faced criticism for disproportionate emphasis on state actors amid cartel-perpetrated atrocities, potentially overlooking the operational constraints faced by forces confronting non-state armed groups. In context, groups account for approximately two-thirds of homicides in , with cartel-related comprising over 50% of intentional killings in peak years like 2010-2011, dwarfing verified state abuses in scale. Federal forces, including predecessors to the modern , operate in an asymmetric conflict against cartels equipped with military-grade weaponry, where restraint is evidenced by limited escalation to broader warfare despite provocations, though allegations persist that some abuses stem from misattribution of cartel-executed to personnel. Independent analyses underscore that while isolated federal violations warrant investigation, the primary drivers of crises remain cartel dominance in regions with minimal state presence.

Persistent Corruption Challenges

In the 2010s, the Policía Federal (PF) faced multiple high-profile corruption scandals involving commanders colluding with cartels, prompting internal purges and dismissals. For instance, in August 2010, federal officers in detained a accused of ties, amid broader clashes where groups of PF members confronted superiors over alleged criminal involvement. That same year, Mexican authorities dismissed approximately 10% of the PF force—around 4,000 officers—following investigations into graft and infiltration, including a against a dubbed "The Shaman" for suspected links. These incidents highlighted vulnerabilities at mid-level command, where operational intelligence was sometimes leaked to cartels like or in exchange for payments. Empirical data from national surveys indicate that enforcement exhibits lower corruption perceptions and reported rates compared to and municipal forces, though infiltration remains a concern. INEGI's National Survey on Governmental Quality and Impact (ENCIG) consistently ranks institutions higher in perceived integrity than subnational , with experiences in interactions reported at around 52% nationally but disproportionately concentrated at local levels due to decentralized vulnerabilities. centralization enables standardized vetting and oversight, yielding fewer verified ties than in fragmented units, yet persistent cases—such as the U.S. sentencing of a former PF commander for aiding a in shipments dating to the 2010s—demonstrate ongoing risks. Cartel bribes, often exceeding annual salaries by orders of magnitude, provide a primary causal driver for -level , outpacing official pay of roughly 15,000–25,000 MXN monthly for rank-and-file officers. Cartels allocate hundreds of millions annually to such incentives, targeting operatives for their access to nationwide operations, which sustains infiltration despite centralized monitoring that limits low-level graft more effectively than in under-supervised local forces. This economic disparity fosters selective , where high-value leaks persist even as routine shakedowns decline under scrutiny.

Debates on Militarization Efficacy

Supporters of federal forces in contend that such deployments have contained escalation in high-risk zones, with some econometric evaluations estimating 15-20% relative reductions in targeted municipalities compared to untreated controls, crediting enhanced operational capacity and disruptions for these localized outcomes. These arguments emphasize empirical deterrence effects, where sustained presence deters territorial contests among cartels, as evidenced by slower violence growth in deployed areas during peak intervention periods from 2010-2018. Critics, including organizations like , counter that militarization primarily displaces rather than eradicates violence, with federal interventions correlating to overall homicide surges—quadrupling from approximately 8,000 in 2007 to over 30,000 annually by 2020—without dismantling underlying criminal economies. This perspective, often advanced by left-leaning analysts, attributes purported "failures" of the drug war to militarized strategies themselves, yet overlooks how revenues, exceeding $20 billion yearly from diversified illicit activities, persist amid lax demand-side enforcement in consumer markets like the . A causal reveals that militarization's limited long-term stems not from inherent flaws in armed deployments but from systemic judicial frailties, including rates exceeding 90% due to prosecutorial incapacity and , which undermine arrests' deterrent value regardless of enforcement intensity. Empirical tests of alternatives, such as Mexico's 2009 partial of small drug quantities, show no substantial decline in dominance or , as traffickers adapted by expanding into synthetic opioids and , with U.S. state-level correlating to heightened flows from Mexican sources rather than reduced supply incentives. Thus, outcomes prioritize robust capture-and-prosecute mechanisms over demilitarization, as procedural shifts alone fail to address causal drivers of persistence.

Recent Developments and Reforms

Shifts Under López Obrador Administration

Upon assuming office in December 2018, President disbanded the Federal Police, citing widespread corruption, and initiated the creation of the as a replacement force. The was formally established by legislation enacted on May 27, 2019, initially comprising elements from the , , and federal police, with an initial target of 60,000 members but expanding rapidly thereafter. This shift aligned with López Obrador's "abrazos no balazos" (hugs, not bullets) approach, which prioritized addressing root causes of crime through social programs and youth opportunities over direct confrontation with . However, the Guard's operational deployments surged, reaching over 133,000 personnel by 2024, with a stated goal of 150,000, reflecting sustained federal involvement in amid persistent cartel threats. Despite the non-confrontational rhetoric, the National Guard conducted high-profile operations, including the capture of Ovidio Guzmán López, son of Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, on January 5, 2023, in Culiacán, Sinaloa, following an intense firefight that highlighted the force's combat role. The Guard was increasingly placed under military command, with constitutional reforms in 2024 formalizing its subordination to the Secretariat of National Defense, enabling broader policing duties. This expansion occurred against a backdrop of municipal police ineffectiveness, where local forces—often underfunded, undertrained, and infiltrated by cartels—failed to control violence concentrated in approximately 80 high-risk municipalities, necessitating federal intervention to maintain order. Critics, including organizations, argued that the Guard's growth entrenched , contravening Obrador's pre-election pledges to withdraw troops from policing and potentially exacerbating abuses due to military training ill-suited for civilian . Empirical data on persistence and localized , however, underscored the causal link between local institutional collapse and the imperative for robust capabilities, as municipal units exhibited low levels (only 7% ) and high to influence. While sources like the Washington Office on highlight risks of in militarized structures, the continuation of captures and deployments indicates that de-escalatory policies alone proved insufficient against entrenched criminal networks.

Sheinbaum's Security Strategy (2024–Onward)

Upon assuming the presidency on October 1, 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum outlined a security strategy emphasizing continuity with her predecessor's National Guard model while introducing enhancements in intelligence and targeted enforcement. The plan, presented on October 8, 2024, by Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch, rests on four pillars: addressing root causes of violence through social programs, consolidating the National Guard under the Secretariat of National Defense (Sedena), bolstering intelligence capabilities, and improving coordination with state and municipal forces. Unlike the López Obrador administration's "hugs, not bullets" restraint, Sheinbaum's approach adopts a more proactive posture against organized crime, including expanded military deployments and arrests, though it maintains the Guard's militarized structure rather than pursuing demilitarization. A key proposal involves creating a "Federal Police 2.0" as a civilian-led unit embedded within the framework to handle specialized investigative and enforcement tasks, aiming to revive elements of the disbanded Federal Police while leveraging the Guard's operational scale. Announced in September 2025, this initiative seeks to balance with professionalized policing amid persistent challenges, focusing on intelligence-driven operations to disrupt and drug trafficking without fully reverting to pre-2019 civilian structures. Critics argue this model may perpetuate risks inherited from the original Federal Police, which was dissolved in 2018 due to infiltration by cartels, though proponents highlight its potential for targeted efficacy under fiscal pressures limiting broad expansions. In early 2025, operations intensified against the and (CJNG), with deployments of thousands of troops to amid internal fractures following the arrest of in July 2024. Federal forces conducted raids resulting in dozens of high-level arrests, seizures of precursors, and the of 26 suspects to the in a gesture of bilateral cooperation, though violence surged with homicide rates in rising over 400% in some periods due to factional infighting. Against CJNG expansion, intelligence-focused efforts yielded U.S.-Mexico joint actions, including a operation arresting over 670 affiliates, but resilience persisted, underscoring constraints from budget limitations and institutional biases in underreporting threats. Sheinbaum reported a 25.3% drop in intentional homicides from September 2024 to July 2025, attributing it to these measures, yet absolute rates remained elevated, reflecting the strategy's incremental build on prior federal frameworks rather than transformative shifts.

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