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Harry Enten


Harry Enten is an American data journalist and political analyst who serves as Chief Data Analyst for CNN Politics, where he delivers empirical analyses of polling data, electoral trends, and voter demographics. Specializing in data-driven journalism, he combines statistical evidence with historical context to interpret public opinion and election dynamics, often uncovering patterns that challenge conventional assumptions.
Enten hosts CNN's Margins of Error , which examines statistical narratives in , , and through a lens of probabilistic reasoning and raw data. A summa cum laude and graduate of with a degree in government, he developed his expertise early through independent studies on topics like voter attitudes toward and vice-presidential debate impacts, alongside internships at . Prior to joining CNN as a senior writer and analyst, Enten was a senior political writer at , where he earned the moniker "Whiz Kid" for his sharp forecasting that integrated polls with demographic and historical variables, contributing to the site's reputation for probabilistic election modeling. His work there, including regular appearances on the podcast, highlighted his affinity for "horserace" predictions rooted in quantitative rigor rather than qualitative speculation. Enten's defining characteristic is his commitment to letting the numbers speak, frequently presenting findings—such as shifts in voter sentiment on the or —that prioritize factual discrepancies over ideological alignment.

Early life and education

Family background and upbringing

Harry Enten was raised in , a neighborhood in , , within a Jewish family of Eastern European descent. His father, Harold Enten, served as a in , while his mother, Dr. Barbara E. Strassberg, held a doctoral degree. Enten has one sibling, a sister named Louise. His uncle, through his mother's side, is the singer-songwriter Neil Sedaka. From an early age, Enten accompanied his father to the polls at age four, an experience that sparked his lifelong interest in elections and politics. He attended Riverdale Country School, a preparatory institution in the Bronx, and participated in Jewish community activities, including nursery and camp at Riverdale Temple. His father's fandom for the New York Giants baseball team also influenced family discussions around sports and statistics, aligning with Enten's later analytical pursuits. Harold Enten passed away in 2015, leaving behind his wife, children, and extended family. The family's emphasis on education and critical thinking shaped Enten's upbringing, fostering his development as a data-driven analyst.

Academic pursuits at Dartmouth

Enten enrolled at Dartmouth College in 2007 and graduated in 2011 with a major in government. His coursework emphasized government and elections, including classes with professors such as Robert Norman in mathematical and social sciences, Karen Gocsik in writing, and Joseph Bafumi. He also pursued studies in related areas, such as a course on black religion where he analyzed religion's influence on attitudes toward same-sex marriage, and a final term paper under Bafumi examining the impact of vice-presidential debates during an off-campus term in Washington, D.C. Enten's academic interests centered on in , sports, and weather, viewing them through the lens of odds and predictions. He supplemented his major with independent studies, benefiting from flexible guidance by professors, and took statistics classes to enhance his skills. During his D.C. term, he interned at , contributing political blog posts to their website, which aligned his coursework with practical data interpretation. Beyond formal classes, Enten engaged in self-directed academic pursuits by authoring the "Margin of Error" blog from his dorm, often posting early in the morning on polling and . He also produced a widely circulated , reaching 200 to 400 recipients—approximately 10% of the student body—integrating forecasts with analytical commentary. These efforts reflected his focus on -driven prediction, though he avoided deep involvement in student politics beyond serving as class treasurer, assisting with senior-year student , and affiliating with the College Democrats while registering as an independent.

Early career

Blogging and initial political analysis

Enten initiated his political analysis through personal blogging while studying at . In 2009, during his undergraduate years, he founded Margin of Error, a centered on dissecting political polling data and electoral statistics, often producing content early in the morning from his dorm room. The blog emphasized and empirical trends, reflecting his interest in "horserace" aspects of politics akin to odds. His early writings attracted attention from established outlets; pieces from Margin of Error were referenced by , , and while he was still a . This recognition stemmed from rigorous data-driven posts that challenged conventional narratives through statistical scrutiny, such as evaluating polling reliability and historical patterns in voter behavior. Interning at during this period, Enten contributed blog entries to the network's political unit, collaborating with journalists like Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro on election coverage. After graduating in 2011, Enten extended his analysis via freelance contributions to The Guardian, where he authored columns on polling methodologies and electoral dynamics during the 2012 U.S. presidential cycle. His "Harry Enten: on polling and politics" series delivered frequent examinations of public opinion data, extending to intersections with sports and weather forecasting, underscoring a consistent focus on quantitative prediction over qualitative speculation. These efforts established Enten as an emerging voice in data-centric political commentary, prioritizing verifiable metrics amid a media landscape often reliant on anecdotal reporting.

Entry into professional journalism

Enten initially entered professional journalism through contributions to Baseball Prospectus, where he sold a proprietary designed to forecast players' future performance and began writing articles incorporating sabermetric analysis. This early work, rooted in his interest in sports statistics, predated his focus on politics but established his approach to data-driven reporting. Following his graduation from in 2011, Enten transitioned to political coverage by freelancing for The Guardian, analyzing U.S. elections during the 2012 cycle with pieces that applied statistical models to polling data and voter trends. His freelance output gained traction, leading to a full-time position at the outlet, where he expanded to topics including and sports alongside election analysis. By November 2013, Enten had published dozens of articles for The Guardian, later reflecting in one such piece that the role marked his "first full-time journalism job." During this period, Enten's writing emphasized empirical scrutiny of polls and historical precedents, such as assessing frontrunners' viability through variables like endorsements and incumbency advantages, which differentiated his work from traditional narrative-driven reporting. This stint at The Guardian, lasting through late 2013, bridged his personal blogging efforts to institutional media and honed the quantitative style that defined his subsequent career.

Tenure at FiveThirtyEight

Key roles and forecasting models

Enten joined in December 2013 as a political , later advancing to senior political writer and , where he specialized in dissecting polling data and electoral trends to inform probabilistic assessments of outcomes. In this capacity, he produced detailed analyses of poll methodologies, house effects, and aggregation techniques, emphasizing empirical adjustments for biases such as those observed in registered-voter versus likely-voter samples. His work supported FiveThirtyEight's forecasting framework, which integrated national and state-level polls with historical data and economic indicators to generate ensemble probabilities, though primary model development remained under Nate Silver's direction. Enten contributed interpretive pieces on forecast sensitivities, such as how polling errors could shift projected margins—for instance, noting in October 2016 that trailed by an amount consistent with typical historical polling inaccuracies rather than an insurmountable deficit. He also examined generic ballot polling as a leading indicator for midterm shifts, adjusting for turnout models to refine projections of congressional control. Following the 2016 election, Enten led inquiries into polling shortfalls, interviewing pollsters to quantify underestimation of non-college-educated white and support, which informed subsequent model refinements like increased weighting for recent surveys and demographic corrections. These efforts underscored a commitment to iterative, data-validated forecasting, avoiding overreliance on unadjusted aggregates amid evidence of systematic errors in battleground states.

Development of The Forecast Fest

The Forecast Fest emerged as a podcast initiative in 2019, designed to deliver data-centric breakdowns of the Democratic primaries and broader 2020 presidential race dynamics. Co-hosted by Harry Enten alongside anchors and , it emphasized probabilistic modeling, polling aggregation, and empirical trends over narrative speculation, with Enten applying methodologies refined during his tenure, such as ensemble forecasting from multiple pollsters to mitigate sampling errors. Development accelerated amid the crowded 2019 Democratic field, with the undergoing a format relaunch on July 29, 2019, to incorporate Enten's quantitative expertise for weekly episodes previewing debates and caucuses. This iteration shifted from prior audio efforts toward tighter integration of raw data visualization—Enten often referencing historical baselines like incumbency advantages or correlations—to counterbalance subjective commentary from co-hosts. The structure prioritized brevity, with segments allocating roughly 10-15 minutes to forecast updates, drawing on sources like averages for cross-verification. Episodes from late 2019 through early 2020, totaling over 20, dissected events like the ' polling discrepancies—where Enten highlighted underweighted rural samples in aggregates—and shifts, attributing Biden's surge to non-white voter consolidation backed by data from 70% turnout in key states. Production ceased in March 2020 amid the pivot, having established Enten's on-air data style but revealing limitations in real-time adjustments to exogenous shocks like pandemics, which standard models undervalue without updated priors.

Transition to CNN

Hiring and initial responsibilities

Enten joined CNN in February 2018 as a senior writer and analyst on the network's team, transitioning from his role at where he had specialized in data-driven political forecasting. His initial responsibilities centered on analyzing polling data, electoral trends, and metrics to inform 's coverage of political events, including writing articles and providing on-air commentary during key moments such as the 2018 midterm elections. In October 2018, shortly after his arrival, launched "The Forecast with Harry Enten," a daily segment in which he delivered probabilistic predictions for U.S. Senate and House races based on aggregated polling and statistical models, marking an early emphasis on his expertise in quantitative election analysis. This role positioned him as a key contributor to data-centric reporting, often highlighting discrepancies between polls and voter behavior or demographic shifts, while appearing regularly on programs to break down numbers for broader audiences.

Evolution to Chief Data Analyst

Upon joining CNN in February 2018 as a senior writer and analyst for Politics, Harry Enten concentrated on dissecting poll numbers, electoral trends, and demographic data to inform coverage of political developments. His analyses often integrated historical context with current polling aggregates, emphasizing empirical patterns over partisan spin, such as highlighting discrepancies between voter enthusiasm and turnout probabilities during the 2018 midterms. Enten's role expanded to include regular on-air segments and contributions to CNN's digital platforms, where he developed a reputation for accessible yet rigorous data visualization and interpretation, including the launch of the "Margins of Error" in 2020, which delved into statistical underpinnings of public opinion shifts. Over the subsequent years, his work increasingly positioned him as CNN's go-to figure for and counterintuitive insights derived from raw survey data, such as adjustments for non-response bias in economic perception polls, distinguishing his output from traditional punditry. This progression culminated in his promotion to Chief Data Analyst on February 24, 2025, as announced by , recognizing his established expertise in "data-driven journalism that cuts through the noise to explain what the numbers really mean." In this elevated capacity, Enten oversees broader data strategy across 's platforms while maintaining his focus on polling aggregation and , building on nearly seven years of specialized contributions that elevated quantitative rigor in the network's political reporting.

Major analyses and contributions

Election forecasting and 2016 reflections

Enten contributed to FiveThirtyEight's presidential election forecasting as a senior writer and analyst, producing guides on interpreting polls and emphasizing the tightness of the race in the campaign's final weeks. The site's probabilistic model, which aggregated state and national polls with historical data dating to 1972, gave a 29 percent chance of winning the on November 7, , while assigning a 71 percent probability; this reflected polling averages showing Clinton ahead by about 3 points nationally but narrower margins in swing states like , , and . Enten highlighted in analyses that Trump's path to victory remained viable despite lower favorability ratings and historical precedents suggesting underperformance among white voters compared to in 2012. Following Trump's victory on November 8, 2016—despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points—Enten examined polling errors in post-mortems, noting that state-level polls underestimated Trump's support by more than 3 points on average in key battlegrounds, a deviation within historical norms such as the 7-point miss in 1980 but larger than typical recent cycles. He attributed some inaccuracies to over-reliance on subgroup polling data, such as assumptions about Trump's underperformance among white voters, and cautioned against treating polls as exact predictors given non-response biases and herding among pollsters. In reflections, Enten stressed that had consistently communicated the race's closeness, countering public misperceptions of overconfidence, while acknowledging model limitations like insufficient weighting for primary-era data that might have better captured Trump's appeal. Enten outlined broader lessons from the election, arguing that demographics are not destiny, as flipped non-college-educated white voters in states who had supported in 2008 and 2012, with turnout among black voters dropping to 59 percent from 66 percent in 2012. He debunked reliance on a Democratic "" in the Midwest, noting 's wins in (by 0.7 points), (0.2 points), and (0.8 points) exposed vulnerabilities when popular vote margins fell below 4 points, as in prior Democratic victories from 1992 to 2012. Additional insights included the dominance of loyalty— capturing 90 percent of identifiers despite policy deviations—and the unreliability of data as a predictor, since led early ballots in and yet prevailed by over 150,000 votes in each. These observations informed subsequent forecasting adjustments, prioritizing larger historical samples and skepticism toward subgroup extrapolations without robust turnout validation.

Public opinion and demographic shifts

Enten has frequently analyzed shifts in voter demographics that challenge conventional assumptions about partisan loyalty, particularly among non-white and younger voters. In October 2024, he predicted that former President would secure a "historic" share of and voters, citing polling data showing Trump leading or competitive in these groups compared to prior nominees; for instance, exit polls from the 2024 election confirmed Trump won 13% of the vote, the highest for a since 1972, and 46% of the vote, up from 32% in 2020. These gains, Enten argued, reflected dissatisfaction with Democratic economic policies and stances rather than ideological realignment, as evidenced by consistent polling trends in battleground states like and where minority turnout favored Republicans more than expected. Among younger demographics, Enten highlighted a pronounced divide in party identification, with young women identifying as Democrats at rates over 20 points higher than young men in surveys, attributing this to differing views on issues and economic metrics. He noted that this gap, wider than in prior generations, stemmed from self-reported rates: Gen Z men reported higher personal financial improvement under Trump-era policies, correlating with a rightward shift among non-college-educated males across racial lines. In contrast, Enten observed erosion in Trump's support among non-college white voters—a core group comprising 51% of battleground state electorates—where leads narrowed to under 10 points in late polls, potentially offsetting minority gains if turnout remained high. Post-2024 analyses by Enten revealed volatility in these shifts, with early 2025 polls indicating a rebound in Democratic support among Hispanics, dropping Trump's favorability by over 20 points in some states like due to policy implementation perceptions. He emphasized that such fluctuations underscore the role of issue salience, like , where legal immigrants showed a 15-point shift toward stricter enforcement in mid-2025 Gallup data, challenging narratives of immutable demographic blocs. Enten's approach consistently prioritizes raw polling aggregates over adjusted models, arguing that unweighted data better captured these under-the-radar shifts missed by outlets reliant on likely voter screens.

Economic perceptions and policy critiques

Harry Enten has frequently analyzed polling data revealing a persistent disconnect between objective economic indicators and public perceptions, particularly highlighting how voters prioritize personal financial experiences over aggregate metrics like GDP growth or rates. In 2025, Enten examined surveys showing that despite low figures around 4.1%, only 42% of Americans rated the job market positively, with 55% viewing it unfavorably, attributing this gap to inflation's lingering impact on household budgets. He noted that such sentiments drove Republican advantages in trust on economic handling, with GOP leads expanding to 8 points in some polls by mid-2025, even as Democratic messaging emphasized post-pandemic recovery. Enten's breakdowns often underscore "vibes-based" voter assessments, where perceptions of affordability for groceries and outweighed official data. For instance, in June 2025, he expressed surprise at polls indicating Republicans maintained a double-digit edge on economic trust, questioning how Democrats had failed to capitalize on improving indicators like gains, and linking this to unresolved supply-chain issues from prior policies. By October 2025, analyzing Gallup data under the early administration, Enten highlighted a rapid shift where only 28% of respondents cited the as the top national issue—down from 43% in prior cycles—suggesting policy signals like announcements influenced short-term optimism, though he cautioned that sustained above 2% could reverse gains. On specific policies, Enten critiqued the uncertainty surrounding trade measures through voter surveys. In April 2025, he reviewed data showing 52% disapproval of proposed tariffs, with independents particularly wary of price hikes, yet noting that 45% believed such policies could boost domestic jobs, reflecting divided causal expectations on protectionism's effects. He further dissected probabilities in early 2025 stock plunges, estimating a 35% market-implied chance based on futures data, and argued that fiscal stimuli risked exacerbating debt without addressing structural productivity drags. These analyses positioned perceptions as a leading indicator for electoral outcomes, with Enten attributing partisan gaps to experiential variances, such as lower-income voters reporting 20% higher dissatisfaction rates regardless of administration.

Media presence and podcasting

CNN appearances and style

Harry Enten serves as a frequent on-air contributor to CNN programs, delivering data analyses on topics including election polls, economic perceptions, and demographic shifts in voter sentiment. His appearances typically feature detailed breakdowns of surveys from sources like Gallup and 's own polling, often integrated into shows such as and morning segments with anchors like and . For example, on October 24, 2025, Enten analyzed economic polling data during a discussion on voter priorities, emphasizing discrepancies between reported conditions and public approval ratings. Enten's analytical style prioritizes over narrative conformity, presenting aggregated polling data with visual aids to illustrate trends, such as gains among voters or shifts in Democratic national pride. He employs straightforward, unvarnished language to convey findings, even when they counter expectations among CNN's audience, as seen in his October 8, 2025, segment on as a news source, where he highlighted usage rates across demographics without softening politically sensitive implications. This approach is marked by animated enthusiasm and emphatic delivery, which Enten uses to make statistics accessible and memorable, often exclaiming phrases like "stunning" to denote outlier results. However, it has elicited criticism for perceived theatricality; in an April 30, 2025, on-air exchange, Republican pollster accused Enten of Broadway-like dramatics unsuitable for "very serious" topics, prompting anchor to defend his style as engaging.

Margins of Error podcast

"Margins of Error" is a hosted by CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, which premiered on September 21, 2021. Produced by CNN Audio, the series focuses on uncovering the human stories and insights hidden within statistical , examining how numbers reflect behaviors, beliefs, and societal trends. Enten, drawing from his expertise in polling and , presents episodes that blend with narrative explanations, often addressing non-political subjects like the evolution of beliefs or the financial benchmarks for personal contentment. The features seasonal formats, with recent installments probing questions such as the influence of regional accents on perceptions, the persistence of Christianity's cultural footprint , and the psychological drivers of in speech patterns. Episodes typically run 20-40 minutes and emphasize rigorous interpretation over partisan commentary, though Enten's analytical style occasionally intersects with trends informed by his broader journalistic work. As of September 2025, the show maintains an active release schedule, available across platforms including and iHeart, where it holds a 4.5-star average rating from hundreds of user reviews. While primarily solo-narrated, select episodes incorporate expert interviews or panel discussions to contextualize findings, such as explorations of undecided voters' perspectives tied to Enten's polling data. The 's approach prioritizes verifiable metrics from surveys and studies, aligning with Enten's for data-driven skepticism, and has contributed to CNN's expanding audio slate alongside shows from other network figures. By mid-2025, it had amassed over 100 episodes, totaling several hours of content that illustrate statistical margins' role in decoding everyday phenomena.

Reception and controversies

Achievements in data journalism

Harry Enten gained prominence in through his early blogging at Margin of Error, where he dissected political polls using statistical methods and demographic breakdowns, establishing a foundation for rigorous, evidence-based commentary independent of mainstream narratives. During his time as a senior political writer and analyst at from 2013 onward, Enten earned the nickname "Whiz Kid" for integrating raw polling data with historical patterns and socioeconomic variables to forecast electoral outcomes and explain voter behavior, such as analyzing shifts in partisan identification tied to economic indicators. At , starting in 2018 and culminating in his promotion to Chief Data Analyst on February 24, 2025, Enten has advanced data visualization techniques for broadcast audiences, presenting metrics like approval ratings and turnout models in segments that prioritize empirical trends over , including breakdowns of media's role in news consumption based on survey aggregates from October 2025. His analytical framework, described by colleagues as "empirical ," emphasizes falsifiable claims derived from large datasets rather than anecdotal , contributing to FiveThirtyEight's team accolades including a Peabody Award and multiple Online Journalism Awards for excellence in data presentation.

Criticisms of methodological choices

Polling analyst criticized Enten's October 2025 CNN segment assessing President 's fulfillment of campaign promises, arguing that Enten cherry-picked a limited set of four polls for the generic ballot lead while broader polling aggregates indicated a seven-point toward Democrats since the start of 's term. further contended that Enten's emphasis on a / poll finding 52% of respondents agreeing was "doing what he promised" overlooked the same survey's 58% disapproval rating for , misinterpreting selective data points without holistic context. He attributed such choices partly to the demands of presentation, which prioritize sensationalism over comprehensive analysis. In coverage of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race, independent pollster Zoose accused Enten of overreliance on a single Quinnipiac University poll showing Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leading by six points, while disregarding at least five contemporaneous surveys from firms including Trafalgar and Emerson that converged on a toss-up. Zoose highlighted methodological flaws in Quinnipiac's likely-voter screening, which allegedly overweighted Democrats and undercounted unaffiliated voters and young men, contrasting this with Zoose's own October 9–12 survey of 3,600 respondents indicating a three-point race. Additionally, Enten's analogy to 2024 presidential polling margins was faulted as invalid due to differences in off-year turnout dynamics and electorates. These instances reflect broader observer concerns that Enten's data presentations, while grounded in empirical polling, occasionally emphasize or narrow datasets that align with narrative-driven conclusions, potentially at the expense of polling convergence or turnout modeling rigor. Critics like , a former Wall Street Journal polling director, underscore the importance of aggregating across pollsters to mitigate house effects, a standard Enten has advocated in past defenses of the industry but not always applied uniformly in real-time commentary.

Personal life and influences

Interests beyond politics

Enten maintains a longstanding interest in sports, particularly as a fan of the National Football League's . During middle school, he participated in and , continuing with junior varsity in high school. His early engagement with centered on probabilistic predictions of game outcomes, akin to his analytical approach in other domains. He pursues amateur as a , distributing weekly forecast emails to subscribers numbering over 300 as of 2016, blending with personal commentary. This interest originated in , where he used statistical arguments to advocate for snow days. Enten has voiced affection for dogs and , as noted in profiles of his personal quirks. He frequently endorses Popeyes sandwiches, pairing them with diet , and has described their quality in enthusiastic terms. His activity reveals an appreciation for television theme songs and , contributing to his self-described eccentric online persona.

Public persona and ideological stance

Harry Enten cultivates a public persona centered on rigorous, -centric , characterized by an energetic delivery and reliance on empirical polling over subjective opinions during appearances. As Chief Data Analyst, he specializes in dissecting voter trends, demographics, and historical patterns through visual graphics and straightforward commentary. His self-professed toward human judgment underscores this approach, as reflected in his online bio: "I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls." Enten's ideological stance prioritizes fidelity to statistical evidence above partisan alignment, enabling analyses that challenge assumptions across the . For instance, he has highlighted Democratic advantages in party affiliation polling ahead of midterms, describing a Gallup-measured shift as "shocking" in its favorability to Democrats. Conversely, he has warned of historical headwinds for Democrats in midterm elections based on presidential approval ratings and economic perceptions, predicting potential losses for the party in control of the . This data-first methodology, rooted in his training at and experience at , positions him as an analyst who navigates politically charged environments by adhering to verifiable metrics rather than ideological priors.

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