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Justin II

Justin II (Latin: Iustinus; Greek: Ἰουστῖνος, Ioustinos; c. 520 – 5 October 578) was Eastern Roman emperor from 14 November 565 until his death, succeeding his uncle Justinian I as the last ruler of the Justinianic dynasty. Born to Vigilantia, Justinian's sister, he married Sophia, niece of Empress Theodora, though the couple had no surviving children. His early reign focused on fiscal prudence, repaying Justinian's debts and halting tribute payments to the Avar khaganate and Sasanian Persia to preserve treasury resources. These policies, however, provoked invasions, including Lombard incursions into Italy in 568, Avar-Slavic assaults on the Balkans, Berber revolts in Africa from 569, and a Persian war from 572 that culminated in the catastrophic loss of the fortress of Dara in 573. Domestically, Justin enforced Chalcedonian orthodoxy, persecuting Monophysites and attempting doctrinal reconciliations that ultimately failed, exacerbating religious divisions. His rule also saw building projects, such as the palace of Sophia and churches, alongside the dispatch of relics like a fragment of the to . Following the Dara defeat, Justin suffered a severe mental breakdown, manifesting in , , and violent outbursts, leading him to elevate general as Caesar on 7 December 574 and effectively co-emperor. Tiberius succeeded him upon his death in 578, marking the end of Justin's troubled tenure, which reduced the empire's frontiers despite initial ambitions to restore Justinian's conquests.

Early Life and Family Background

Origins and Upbringing

Justin II was born around 520, the son of Vigilantia, sister of Emperor , and her husband Dulcissimus, a figure of limited historical record whose background likely reflected the provincial origins of Justinian's family. Little is documented about his precise birthplace, though the family's ties to the suggest early exposure to Latin-speaking rural environments before relocation to the imperial capital. As the nephew of Justinian, Justin's upbringing occurred amid the opulence and intrigue of the Constantinopolitan court, where he benefited from the resources available to imperial kin, including rigorous training in , , and essential for bureaucratic advancement. Historical accounts of his formative years remain sparse, with primary sources focusing more on his later roles than childhood, underscoring the era's emphasis on adult achievements over personal . By 552, at approximately age 32, Justinian elevated him to the office of cura palatii (or curopalates), a senior court position overseeing palace administration and signaling his emergence as a trusted advisor and potential successor amid the aging emperor's lack of direct heirs. This appointment reflected strategic grooming within the Justinianic dynasty, positioning Justin as a key figure in managing imperial affairs during Justinian's final years.

Marriage to Sophia and Court Connections

Justin II, born as the son of Vigilantia (sister of ), married before June 548, during the lifetime of Empress , who was Sophia's aunt and likely facilitated the union to favor Justin as a potential successor. Sophia, born circa 530, was the daughter of Comito, one of Theodora's sisters from a family of humble origins elevated by imperial favor, thereby forging a between Justinian's bloodline and Theodora's influential kin. This marriage strengthened Justin's court connections, complementing his appointment as cura palatii in 552, a key administrative role overseeing palace finances and logistics under Justinian I. Sophia's ties to Theodora's faction provided access to networks of loyalty within the imperial household, enhancing Justin's position amid succession rivalries, such as with Germanus's son Justin. The couple had two children: a son, Justus, who died prior to 565, and a daughter, Arabia, whose marriage to Badouarios (later curopalates) further intertwined their family with court elites. Supporters including Patriarch John Scholasticus and Tiberius, Count of the Excubitors, bolstered their standing, aiding Justin's rapid consolidation of power after Justinian's death on November 14, 565.

Ascension and Initial Consolidation

Succession Following Justinian I

Justinian I died suddenly during the night of 14 or 15 November 565, without having formally designated a successor despite his advanced age and prior experiences with court intrigues. The chamberlain Callinicus later asserted that, with his final breath, Justinian had named his nephew —son of the emperor's sister Vigilantia—as his heir, though this claim's veracity remains uncertain given the absence of prior public adoption or co-emperorship. , who had cultivated strong ties at the Constantinopolitan court during Justinian's reign, including through his marriage to (niece of the late Empress ), positioned himself advantageously amid the power vacuum. Prior to any public announcement of Justinian's death, palace officials and senators proclaimed Justin emperor on 15 November 565, with Scholasticus performing the coronation in a swift, controlled ceremony. The excubitores, the palace guard, secured the doors to prevent unrest, ensuring a seamless transition without reported opposition. To solidify loyalty, Justin immediately repaid senatorial debts accrued under his uncle's fiscal policies and revived the consulship, signaling continuity while addressing grievances. He further appointed key allies, notably elevating (later Tiberius II) to the critical post of count of the excubitores, thereby securing military backing within . This rapid reflected Justin's pre-existing network of supporters, averting the factional strife that had plagued earlier successions.

Domestic Stabilization Efforts

Upon his accession on November 14, 565, following Justinian I's death, Justin II focused on financial to the depleted resulting from his predecessor's conquests, plagues, and monumental constructions. He promptly repaid forced loans imposed under Justinian, including obligations to key financiers, and ceremonially burned the bonds to symbolize debt clearance. This initiative, highlighted in his to the , countered the inherited fiscal insolvency while preserving resources through reduced expenditures. To foster domestic support and mitigate economic discontent, remitted tax arrears accumulated since 560, alleviating pressures from Justinian's rigorous collections that had fueled provincial resentments. He further demonstrated fiscal restraint by curtailing non-essential outlays, earning acclaim for , and revived the consulship—dormant since 541—to enable public distributions and reinforce elite allegiance. These steps incrementally restored treasury equilibrium, though sustained stability demanded ongoing administrative vigilance. Administrative consolidation complemented financial measures, as Justin neutralized threats to his rule by orchestrating the of rival claimant Justin, son of Germanus, and executing plotters including Aetherios and Addaios after a 566/567 . On November 15, 565, he elevated his wife to Augusta, drawing on her familial ties to Justinian's for influence and continuity. Such decisive actions secured internal cohesion, enabling focus on broader governance amid the empire's strained resources.

Domestic Administration

Financial and Economic Policies

Upon ascending the throne in 565, Justin II implemented measures to address the fiscal strain inherited from Justinian I's extensive campaigns, building projects, and subsidies to neighboring powers. He promptly repaid the imperial debts accumulated under his predecessor and publicly burned the treasury bonds symbolizing these obligations, signaling a commitment to fiscal renewal. Justin also ordered the remission of arrears dating back to 560, effectively forgiving older debts to stimulate economic activity and improve collection among subjects burdened by prior defaults. Additionally, he decreed an initial reduction of one-fourth of across his dominions even before his formal coronation, further alleviating fiscal pressures on the populace and administration. These steps, as recorded by the contemporary historian —a Monophysite cleric later persecuted under Justin's religious policies—reportedly led to rumors of an overflowing treasury, though Ephesus's account reflects his doctrinal biases against the emperor. To curtail expenditures, Justin terminated the annual subsidies paid to barbarian groups and Persia, which Justinian had used to maintain fragile peaces; this policy saved substantial resources but precipitated conflicts that ultimately eroded the short-term surplus. remained conservative, with the continuation of Justinian's gold standard—minted at 4.5 grams of pure gold—and production of for everyday transactions, ensuring currency stability amid these reforms. By prioritizing debt reduction and tax relief over expansive spending, Justin's approach aimed at long-term solvency, though subsequent wars tested these gains.

Administrative Reforms and Bureaucracy

Upon ascending the throne on November 14, 565, Justin II implemented financial measures to counteract the fiscal exhaustion from Justinian I's reconquests and building programs. In 566, he repaid all outstanding public debts, which had burdened the and administrative machinery. He also remitted arrears extending back to 560, alleviating enforcement pressures on provincial officials and curbing potential in collection. These policies reflected a broader commitment to , with Justin II reducing state expenditures to preserve liquidity amid territorial overextension. While no comprehensive overhaul of bureaucratic ranks occurred, the curtailment of spending implicitly constrained the growth of administrative posts created under Justinian, prioritizing efficiency over expansion. In 569, Justin II extended major concessions to provincial magnates, granting them enhanced fiscal privileges that diminished direct central bureaucratic involvement in local taxation. This adjustment acknowledged the empire's diminished capacity for intensive oversight, effectively decentralizing elements of revenue administration to local elites while easing the load on officials. Such pragmatic adaptations, issued via Novels, sustained operational continuity without radical restructuring, though they placated influential landowners at the potential cost of long-term central authority.

Religious Policies and Doctrinal Enforcement

Upon his accession on November 14, 565, Justin II publicly affirmed adherence to the doctrines of the (451), restoring bishops exiled under Justinian I's late policies and rejecting the aphthartodocetist tendencies that had gained imperial favor in Justinian's final years. This marked a deliberate return to strict Chalcedonian orthodoxy, emphasizing the two natures of Christ in opposition to Monophysite views prevalent in , , and parts of . Early in his reign, Justin attempted reconciliation with moderate Monophysites (miaphysites) by issuing an edict of union around 566, which presented doctrinal formulas intended to accommodate their Christological concerns while upholding ; miaphysite bishops were invited to amend or endorse it. These overtures, influenced by Empress Sophia's pragmatic diplomacy, convened discussions but collapsed due to mutual suspicions and Chalcedonian insistence on full submission, as detailed in contemporary accounts by Monophysite chronicler , whose partisan perspective highlights imperial duplicity yet confirms the edict's content and failure. Doctrinal enforcement escalated through ecclesiastical trials and administrative measures under Patriarch John IV Scholasticus (r. 565–577), who targeted miaphysite for reordination or deposition; notable cases included the of presbyters like and bishops such as of and of Sardes circa 566–567, often on charges of invalid under non-Chalcedonian rites. By 571, following miaphysite resistance and provincial unrest, Justin authorized widespread persecution, mandating subscription to an anti-miaphysite creed by all , with non-compliance leading to exile, monastic closures, and property seizures—actions that suppressed but did not eradicate , exacerbating schisms in the eastern provinces. John of Ephesus records over 500 miaphysite executions or banishments in this phase, though his Monophysite bias likely inflates figures while underscoring the policy's rigor. These measures prioritized imperial unity over theological compromise, aligning with Western churches and but alienating eastern populations, where persisted as a marker of cultural resistance to Constantinople's authority.

Foreign Relations and Military Engagements

Persian Frontier and Diplomacy

Upon ascending the throne in November 565, Justin II repudiated the annual subsidies to the Sassanid Empire stipulated in the 562 "Eternal Peace" treaty negotiated by , which had included payments for the defense of the passes against northern invaders. This decision reflected Justin's broader policy of fiscal retrenchment and assertion of Roman prestige, aiming to redirect resources toward western reconquests while ending what he viewed as humiliating . Initial diplomatic overtures, such as sending Komentiolos to negotiate over the border region of Suania, failed by 572, exacerbating tensions. A revolt in Persian Armenia in 571, triggered by Sassanid governor Suren's imposition of Zoroastrian practices—including the construction of a at Dvin and the execution of a Mamikonean noble—provided Justin an opportunity to intervene; he welcomed the rebels as allies and exploited the unrest to justify halting payments to . In 572, Byzantine forces under domestic generals advanced into to besiege the key fortress of Nisibis, but internal discord among commanders led to the operation's abandonment without decisive gains. Concurrently, Justin pursued a with the Göktürk Turks, formalized around 569, to encircle Persia economically and militarily; this included granting them trading privileges to establish a northern silk route, bypassing Sassanid monopolies and threatening Persia's commerce. These moves provoked to declare war in 572, framing the conflict as retaliation for Byzantine perfidy. Persian forces swiftly invaded Byzantine in spring 573, besieging the frontier fortress of ; despite stout resistance, the city fell after five months on November 15, 573, with its commander Mauricius accused of or . Khosrow's armies then ravaged , sacking Apamea and deporting over 292,000 captives to Persian territories, while Lakhmid Arab allies raided further into the desert frontiers following Justin's disbandment of the Ghassanid buffer federation in 572. Byzantine counteroffensives faltered amid logistical strains and multi-front pressures, prompting Justin—reportedly maddened by reports of Dara's fall—to sue for peace. In 574, Empress leveraged prior Byzantine medical aid to Khosrow (treatment by physicians during Justinian's era) to secure a one-year , later extended to three years, though it excluded contested and proved temporary as hostilities resumed by 576. Justin's aggressive diplomacy, while initially rooted in rejecting perceived weakness, yielded strategic setbacks: the loss of Dara undermined the eastern frontier's defenses, and the Turkish alliance eroded after 576 due to mutual betrayals, prolonging the war into subsequent reigns until a 591 settlement. Primary accounts, such as those by Evagrius Scholasticus and Theophanes, attribute the escalation to Justin's intransigence, though Persian sources emphasize Khosrow's defensive posture against encirclement.

Northern Threats: Avars, Slavs, and

The invasion of began in the spring of 568, when King led his people—estimated at around 150,000 to 200,000 individuals, including warriors and families—across the into the weakened peninsula, exploiting the devastation from Justinian I's and the ongoing plague. Justin II's administration, focused on fiscal retrenchment and eastern priorities, initially responded by recalling the victorious general from in 567–568 amid court intrigues, but provided no substantial reinforcements, allowing the to rapidly seize Forum Iulii (modern Cividale del Friuli) in June 568, followed by in 569 and , which became their capital. Byzantine countermeasures under Justin emphasized diplomacy, including subsidies to subvert individual dukes and alliances with , but these proved ineffective against Alboin's unified advance, resulting in the loss of most of northern and by 572 and the confinement of imperial holdings to coastal enclaves and the future . Concurrently, the , a nomadic confederation recently settled in the , posed a direct threat along the frontier. had paid them an annual tribute of 80,000 gold solidi to secure against other groups, but Justin II, pursuing a policy of reduced subsidies to restore imperial prestige, haughtily rejected continuation of these payments upon his accession in 565, prompting Avar to demand —a strategic fortress held by —and initiate into and as early as 568. Justin's military response included dispatching forces under commanders like Theodore to defend key positions, temporarily staving off major incursions, but Avar pressure culminated in a on in 574, which foreshadowed its prolonged (ultimately under II from 579–582), during which the city endured famine and the Avars extracted refugees for ransom. This refusal of tribute, while fiscally prudent short-term, escalated Avar hostility and facilitated their coordination with , as the Avars acquired the latter as vassals or neighbors after the Gepidic wars. Slavic tribes, migrating from the north across the , intensified raids into the throughout Justin's reign, marking the onset of sustained pressure that eroded Byzantine control in Illyricum and . Initial incursions in the 560s targeted and , with warbands—often numbering in the thousands—capturing forts and pillaging as far as the of by 570–571, though imperial fleets and thematic troops under local strategoi repelled some assaults. A major escalation occurred in 577–578, when large forces, possibly coordinated with , overran much of the , wintering in occupied territories and reaching the , including attacks on and ; chronicler records their devastation of 100 forts in alone during this period. Justin's strategy relied on mobile field armies and riverine defenses, achieving temporary victories such as the repulsion of a host near Adrianople in 573, but chronic underfunding and diversion of troops to Persia (after war erupted in 572) prevented decisive campaigns, allowing settlements to begin forming south of the by the late 570s. These northern threats collectively strained the empire's resources, contributing to Justin's overextension and the partial collapse of Balkan defenses.

Strategic Decisions and Their Consequences

Upon ascending the throne in November 565, Justin II adopted a policy of refusing tribute payments to neighboring powers, departing from Justinian I's strategy of purchasing peace through subsidies; this included denying the the annual payments previously granted to secure the frontier. Within weeks of his accession, he rejected envoys' demands for continued subsidies, viewing such concessions as incompatible with Roman imperial dignity. This stance initially preserved treasury resources but provoked aggression, as exploited Byzantine distractions elsewhere to launch raids that escalated into full-scale war by 568, culminating in the siege and capture of key fortresses like in 582 under Justin's successor. In the east, Justin's overtures to the Turks for an anti-Persian , combined with his refusal to remit the customary pounds of gold annually to Sassanid Persia for the Iberian captives' upkeep, triggered the Byzantine-Sassanid War of 572–591. Seizing on the 572 Armenian revolt against Persian religious impositions, Justin dispatched aid to rebels under , framing the conflict as a defense of Christian orthodoxy against Zoroastrian persecution; however, this opportunistic intervention ignored the empire's overstretched military, leading Persian king to invade , besiege and capture the fortress of in June 573 after a prolonged assault that killed thousands, and ravage unchecked. The loss of , a vital bulwark symbolizing Justinian's diplomatic gains, exposed to further raids and tied down Byzantine forces for two decades, exacerbating fiscal exhaustion without territorial compensation. Regarding Italy, Justin's recall of the victorious general in late 567, motivated by court intrigues and suspicions of disloyalty, left the peninsula underdefended amid migrations; this decision facilitated Alboin's invasion in April 568 with 150,000 warriors, who rapidly overran , capturing by September and by 569, reducing Byzantine holdings to coastal enclaves like and . Attempts to counter this through a 569 alliance with the , offering subsidies for joint campaigns, yielded only temporary diversions, as Frankish kings like prioritized internal divisions over sustained commitment, allowing consolidation under Cleph and beyond. These miscalculations—prioritizing short-term economies over defensive reinforcements—contributed to the permanent fragmentation of , draining imperial revenues and manpower while incursions further eroded Balkan defenses, collectively undermining Justin's aggressive posture and hastening the empire's strategic retrenchment.

Crisis, Decline, and Succession

Mental Health Deterioration and Regency

The onset of Justin II's mental health deterioration is dated to late 573 or early 574, coinciding with the capture of the fortress of on the eastern frontier, a humiliating defeat that exacerbated the empire's military setbacks. Contemporary chronicler , a Monophysite who had faced persecution under Justin's religious policies, described vivid episodes of the emperor's derangement, including frenzied rushes through the palace in terror, attempts to bite attending courtiers, and outbursts of howling that echoed the agony of wild beasts. These accounts, while potentially colored by John’s theological grievances against Justin’s Chalcedonian orthodoxy, align with reports from other sources like Evagrius Scholasticus, who noted the emperor's progressive incapacity to govern amid mounting crises, including and incursions in the . By November 574, Justin's episodes had rendered him unfit for rule, prompting him—during a —to elevate his comes excubitorum (commander of the ), Tiberius, as Caesar and co-emperor, effectively instituting a regency while retaining nominal . This arrangement, formalized on November 7, 574, delegated administrative and military authority to , who managed diplomacy with the , distributed grain relief during famines, and stabilized the court without immediate usurpation. The empress played a pivotal role in advocating for Tiberius's appointment, leveraging her influence to avert chaos, though her later ambitions contributed to tensions in the succession. Justin's condition persisted intermittently until his death on October 5, 578, after which Tiberius assumed full emperorship. Historians interpret Justin's affliction as a probable acute psychotic break, possibly triggered by from fiscal exhaustion, diplomatic failures, and over military losses, rather than mere senility, given his age of around 60 and the sudden onset. No evidence suggests feigned illness for political cover; instead, the regency's success in maintaining continuity underscores the severity, as courtiers and reportedly prayed for during his most acute phases. This period marked a rare instance of Byzantine self-restraint, contrasting with precedents of contested successions, though it highlighted vulnerabilities in the autocratic system's reliance on the ruler's .

Elevation of Tiberius II Constantine

As Justin II's mental health deteriorated in 574, marked by acute episodes of , auditory hallucinations, and violent outbursts such as biting palace attendants and fleeing in terror through the corridors, the empress recognized the necessity of securing a reliable successor to avert dynastic collapse and administrative paralysis. During one of Justin's rare lucid moments, , leveraging her influence as niece of and de facto power broker, urged him to elevate , the loyal comes excubitorum (commander of the imperial bodyguard) of Armenian origin and proven administrative competence, to the rank of Caesar on December 7, 574. Justin formally adopted Tiberius as his son, renaming him to evoke imperial precedent, thereby entrusting him with effective regency over military, financial, and diplomatic affairs while Justin retained titular sovereignty. This arrangement stabilized the court, with collaborating closely with to distribute donatives to the —totaling 150 pounds of to placate frontier legions strained by ongoing and pressures—and to negotiate truces, such as the renewed five-year peace with the in 574 for 80,000 solidi annually. Primary accounts, including those from contemporary chronicler , portray Tiberius's elevation not as a coup but as a pragmatic imperial decree amid Justin's incapacity, underscoring the Byzantine system's reliance on and co-optation to ensure continuity without elective turmoil. By September 578, as Justin's condition proved terminal, he proclaimed full Augustus and co-emperor on September 26, granting him unrestricted authority and the prerogative to select his own heir, a move ratified by the and populace to legitimize the transition. Justin expired on October 5, 578, leaving as sole ruler, whose prior fiscal restraint and military distributions had already mitigated risks of rebellion from disaffected troops. This phased elevation—from Caesar to Augustus—reflected causal imperatives of Byzantine governance: prioritizing capable regents to counter external threats and internal entropy, rather than adhering rigidly to blood succession amid evident unfitness.

Death and Immediate Aftermath

Justin II died on October 5, 578, succumbing to natural causes after years of severe mental instability that had rendered him unfit to rule since at least 574. His insanity, documented in contemporary accounts, manifested in episodes of paranoia, self-harm attempts, and violent outbursts, such as biting courtiers and requiring restraint via a mechanical throne; these were temporarily alleviated by organ music but ultimately necessitated a regency. Primary sources like Evagrius Scholasticus and Theophanes Confessor attribute the onset to military defeats, particularly the fall of Dara to the Persians in 573, exacerbating his psychological decline without evidence of external poisoning or assassination. Upon Justin's death, , whom he had elevated as Caesar on December 7, 574, amid a lucid interlude prompted by Empress , seamlessly assumed sole imperial authority without opposition. marked his uncontested accession by issuing a remission of 25 percent on for the next four years, a populist measure drawn from the treasury to consolidate support and alleviate fiscal strains inherited from Justin's reign. This policy, recorded by , contrasted with Justin's earlier economies and signaled a shift toward , though it accelerated depletion of reserves already pressured by ongoing wars. Sophia, Justin's widow and influential consort, initially sought to dominate the new regime by urging Tiberius to divorce his wife Ino Anastasia and marry her, leveraging her role in his elevation; Tiberius rebuffed these advances, instead crowning Ino as Augusta, which diminished Sophia's power and relegated her to ceremonial status. No widespread unrest or factional strife erupted immediately, as Tiberius's military credentials and the regency's continuity ensured stability, though Sophia's reported pre-death intrigues with rivals like Justinian (son of Germanus) hinted at underlying court tensions that persisted into Tiberius's rule. Persian incursions into Mesopotamia shortly thereafter tested the succession, prompting Tiberius to dispatch forces under domesticus Maurice for counteroffensives.

Legacy and Historical Evaluation

Achievements and Positive Assessments

Justin II initiated his reign with prudent financial measures, clearing accumulated state debts inherited from , remitting overdue taxes dating back to 560, and implementing reductions in imperial expenditures to alleviate the fiscal strain from prior conquests and subsidies. These actions, undertaken immediately after his accession on November 14, 565, reflected a commitment to fiscal responsibility and provided short-term relief to the empire's overextended economy. Determined to assert independence, Justin II discontinued the annual tribute payments to the Avar khaganate and Sassanid Persia—approximately 80,000 silver coins to the and equivalent sums to the —thereby conserving treasury reserves that had been depleted under Justinian's of . This policy, while precipitating conflicts, was praised for prioritizing imperial sovereignty and resource preservation over costly pacification. Justin II demonstrated patronage in the arts, commissioning high-quality silver plate inscribed with Christian motifs that promoted Chalcedonian orthodoxy and imperial imagery, with the volume of such works— even accounting for reused antique statues—indicating significant cultural investment. Contemporary accounts described him as magnanimous, capable in administration, and an avid builder, highlighting his early political astuteness in managing court factions and securing a smooth succession. These attributes underscored positive evaluations of his initial vigor, contrasting with later challenges.

Criticisms and Failures

Justin II's foreign policy has been characterized by historians as "megalomaniac and irresponsible," marked by the abrupt cessation of subsidies to neighboring powers that had maintained to preserve fragile peaces, resulting in the empire's overextension across multiple fronts amid exhausted resources from prior reconquests. This shift from to confrontation, driven by a desire to assert prestige without adequate military or fiscal preparation, precipitated territorial losses and strategic defeats that undermined Byzantine security. Militarily, Justin's refusal to continue annual payments to Sasanian Persia—totaling 30,000 pounds of gold—prompted Shah to declare war in 572, following the failure of an embassy led by Sebokht; Byzantine forces suffered early setbacks, including the fall of the fortress of in November 573, which triggered Justin's mental collapse and exposed and to Persian raids until a truce in 576. In the west, the recall of the capable general from in 567, reportedly due to complaints from Roman senators about his exactions, left defenses vulnerable; this decision facilitated the invasion under in 568, which swiftly captured and much of the peninsula, reducing Byzantine holdings to isolated exarchates by 576 despite failed counteroffensives like the defeat and death of Justin's son-in-law Baduarius. On the northern frontier, halting subsidies to the khaganate alienated this steppe power, leading to their with and ; Justin's granting of asylum to Gepid refugees provoked incursions into the from 568, culminating in a crushing defeat of imperial forces under in 573/574 and penetrations as far as the . Religiously, Justin initially pursued reconciliation with Monophysites by releasing prisoners and issuing a henotikon-like edict around 565-566, but riots in and doctrinal intransigence prompted a reversal to , including the condemnation of aphthartodocetism and enforcement of Chalcedonian , which alienated eastern provinces and sparked unrest. This policy, enforced harshly until halted by his incapacity, imprisoned figures like the Monophysite bishop , who in his Ecclesiastical History denounced Justin's rule as tyrannical and financially exploitative, exacerbating schisms that weakened loyalty in and . Contemporary Chalcedonian Evagrius Scholasticus echoed these criticisms, portraying Justin as impulsive and ineffective, while later scholars like A. A. Vasiliev described him as "weak-minded," attributing the empire's contraction to his rash decisions rather than insurmountable odds.

Long-Term Impact on the Empire

The refusal to continue annual subsidies to the and , inherited from Justinian I's diplomacy, provoked aggressive responses that exposed the empire's overextended defenses and depleted treasury. In 568, the invasion of —initially invited as allies against the but unchecked due to troop withdrawals to the —led to the occupation of , , and much of the peninsula's interior by 572, fragmenting Byzantine holdings into isolated enclaves like the . This territorial contraction severed access to Italy's substantial tax revenues, estimated at over 200,000 solidi annually under Justinian, and its grain supplies, imposing enduring economic strain that limited fiscal recovery and military mobilization for generations. The resumption of war with Persia in 572, following the repudiation of the Fifty-Year Peace, resulted in the humiliating loss of Daras in November 573 after a prolonged siege, diverting critical legions eastward and enabling opportunistic advances across the . Although concluded the conflict favorably in 591 with Armenian gains, Justin's phase inflicted irrecoverable losses in manpower and funds—exacerbated by plague-weakened armies—eroding the eastern buffer zones and foreshadowing the of 602-628 that nearly collapsed the empire. Balkan frontiers crumbled under coordinated Avar-Slavic pressure, with Slavic warbands penetrating and ; by circa 582, they raided and entrenched in the eastern Peloponnesus, maintaining control until Byzantine reconquests around 805. These settlements facilitated demographic shifts toward Slavization, reducing taxable populations and imperial loyalty in Illyricum and , while subsidies like 60,000 solidi to the in 574 underscored the unsustainable costs of deterrence without fortified depth. Collectively, Justin's fiscal intransigence and multi-front engagements accelerated the shift from expansion to contraction, institutionalizing vulnerabilities that compounded under Arab invasions after 634 and hindered thematic reorganization until the 8th century.

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