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Not even wrong

"Not even wrong" is a phrase attributed to the Austrian-Swiss physicist Wolfgang Pauli, used to describe a scientific theory, hypothesis, or argument that is so vaguely formulated or lacking in specific predictions that it cannot be empirically tested or falsified, rendering it neither provably correct nor incorrect.^[1]^[2] The expression emphasizes the importance of falsifiability as a cornerstone of scientific validity, echoing Karl Popper's criterion that true scientific claims must be capable of being disproven through observation or experiment.^[1] The origin of the phrase traces back to an anecdote from the 1930s or 1940s, when Pauli, a Nobel laureate known for his sharp critiques, reportedly dismissed a muddled theoretical paper by remarking in German, "Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig, es ist nicht einmal falsch" ("That is not only not right, it is not even wrong").^[3] This comment highlighted the paper's failure to provide clear, testable propositions, making it impossible to evaluate its merits or flaws. Pauli's reputation for incisive commentary on scientific work, including his early predictions like the neutrino, underscores how the phrase captured his disdain for imprecise thinking in physics.^[1] In contemporary usage, "not even wrong" has been invoked to critique modern theoretical frameworks perceived as untestable, particularly in particle physics and cosmology.^[4] For instance, mathematician Peter Woit popularized the term in his 2006 book Not Even Wrong, applying it to string theory's lack of experimentally verifiable predictions despite decades of development.^[4] The phrase continues to appear in scientific discourse to question the scientific status of ideas in fields ranging from quantum gravity to multiverse hypotheses, reminding researchers of the need for empirical grounding.^[2]

Historical Origin

Pauli's Anecdote

Wolfgang Pauli, an Austrian-born theoretical physicist renowned for his incisive critiques during the formative years of quantum mechanics, received the 1945 Nobel Prize in Physics for his discovery of the exclusion principle, which states that no two electrons in an atom can occupy the same quantum state simultaneously. Pauli's reputation as the "conscience of physics" stemmed from his uncompromising standards, often delivering sharp assessments that highlighted flaws in theoretical work.^[5] The phrase "not even wrong" originated from an anecdote recounted by Pauli's colleague Rudolf Peierls, who described showing Pauli a paper by a young physicist suspected of lacking merit but worthy of Pauli's opinion. Upon reviewing it, Pauli remarked in German, "Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig, es ist nicht einmal falsch," which translates to "That is not only not right, it is not even wrong."^[5] The comment critiqued the work's failure to make testable predictions, rendering it neither verifiable nor refutable through experiment, a core issue in early quantum field theory efforts.^[5] This incident occurred in the 1930s, during Pauli's tenure as a visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, amid ongoing debates in quantum electrodynamics, including challenges like infinite zero-point energies that plagued theories of the positron and related phenomena.^[6]

Early Interpretations

Following its origin in the 1930s, Pauli's phrase "not even wrong" was initially interpreted by contemporaries as a witty but incisive rebuke of theoretical proposals that were too imprecise or disconnected from empirical reality to warrant serious debate. Rudolf Peierls, a collaborator and friend, recounted the anecdote in his reminiscences, highlighting the phrase's role as a pointed dismissal of vague ideas in particle physics during that decade, blending humor with a demand for rigor.^[7] In the post-World War II period, the phrase resonated in debates over quantum field theory, particularly amid efforts to address infinities in quantum electrodynamics (QED) renormalization. Physicists grappling with divergent calculations and ad hoc fixes invoked similar sentiments to critique hypotheses that evaded experimental testing, echoing Pauli's emphasis on empirical grounding. Pauli himself contributed to this discourse through his longstanding skepticism of renormalization techniques, which he viewed as temporary measures rather than fundamental solutions; in a 1953 letter to Werner Heisenberg, he described renormalization as "a not yet understood palliative."^[8] By the mid-20th century, Pauli reiterated the core idea of the phrase in private correspondence and public talks, using it to counter what he saw as overly speculative or "metaphysical" excursions in particle physics that prioritized mathematical elegance over testable predictions. This evolution reflected a broader cultural shift among physicists toward prioritizing falsifiability in theoretical work, as Pauli warned against ideas detached from observable phenomena. A notable example appears in Pauli's 1950s correspondence, where he applied the phrase's spirit to critiques of early quantum gravity interpretations. In a 1953 letter to Markus Fierz, Pauli rejected unified field theories attempting to merge gravity with quantum principles, asserting that they rested on "dubious ideas" without empirical support, rendering them immune to meaningful validation.^[8] Similarly, in a 1946 letter to Albert Einstein, Pauli lamented that classical field theories, including those incorporating gravity, were "a completely sucked out lemon from which in no way can spring something new," underscoring their lack of predictive power.^[8]

Philosophical Context

Falsifiability Criterion

Falsifiability serves as a foundational criterion in the philosophy of science, stipulating that a theory qualifies as scientific only if it makes predictions that can potentially be disproven through empirical observation or experimentation.^[9] This requirement ensures that scientific claims are testable and subject to rigorous scrutiny, distinguishing them from non-scientific assertions that evade empirical challenge.^[9] The concept was formally developed by Karl Popper in the 1930s, amid the intellectual ferment of the Vienna Circle and debates over scientific methodology. In his seminal work Logik der Forschung (1934), later translated as The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1959), Popper introduced falsifiability as the key to demarcating science from pseudoscience, rejecting verificationism in favor of a critical, conjectural approach to knowledge.^[9] Popper's ideas stemmed from his disillusionment with theories like Marxism and psychoanalysis, which he argued had devolved into unfalsifiable dogmas through ad hoc adjustments that insulated them from refutation.^[9] For instance, he critiqued Marxism for initially offering testable historical predictions that were later rendered immune to disproof by flexible reinterpretations, and psychoanalysis for being compatible with virtually any human behavior, rendering it irrefutable.^[9] To illustrate the criterion's application, Popper highlighted Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which boldly predicted the deflection of starlight by the sun's gravitational field—a claim that risked outright falsification. This prediction was tested during the 1919 solar eclipse expedition led by Arthur Eddington, whose observations confirmed the bending of light, thereby corroborating the theory while demonstrating its vulnerability to empirical disproof.^[9] In contrast to unfalsifiable doctrines, Einstein's framework exemplified scientific risk-taking, as its consequences were "highly improbable" yet open to decisive testing.^[9] At its core, the logical structure of falsifiability posits that a genuine scientific theory must prohibit certain observable outcomes, allowing for potential refutation by a single counterexample. Universal statements, such as "All swans are white," are falsified by encountering a black swan, but if no conceivable observation could contradict the theory—due to its vagueness or flexibility—it fails the criterion and becomes "not even wrong," neither true nor false in a scientific sense.^[9] This prohibitive nature underscores Popper's view that science advances through bold conjectures and attempted refutations, rather than accumulations of confirmatory evidence.^[9] Pauli's phrase "not even wrong" echoes this formal demarcation intuitively.^[9]

Relation to Scientific Methodology

The principle of "not even wrong" embodies the critical integration of falsifiability into the scientific method, serving as a benchmark for hypothesis testing and theory evaluation. Within this framework, hypotheses must generate specific, empirical predictions that can be tested through experiments or observations, allowing for potential refutation; unfalsifiable propositions, by contrast, cannot participate in this deductive process of conjecture and criticism, rendering them incompatible with scientific advancement. Such ideas also undermine core evaluative criteria, including Occam's razor, which favors parsimonious explanations by penalizing theories reliant on untestable assumptions, and assessments of explanatory power, where the absence of verifiable predictions diminishes a theory's utility in accounting for phenomena.^[10]^[11] This emphasis on falsifiability extends to peer review and broader scientific practices, where it shapes the scrutiny of proposed research. In physics and related fields, professional societies incorporate testability into their standards for advancing understanding through empirical or predictive rigor. Funding bodies, such as the National Science Foundation, enforce these norms in many programs by requiring grant proposals to articulate explicit, testable hypotheses, ensuring resources support experiments capable of confirming or disproving claims.^[12] Debates surrounding falsifiability highlight tensions between practical testability and absolute untestability, especially in domains involving extreme conditions like high-energy physics. Proponents argue that predictions feasible only in principle—such as those requiring energies beyond current accelerators—remain scientifically valid if they risk refutation under conceivable future conditions, distinguishing them from wholly immune claims. Critics, however, caution that extended practical inaccessibility can erode a theory's methodological standing, blurring the line with unfalsifiability and challenging the method's application in resource-constrained environments.^[13] Post-1950s developments in philosophy of science marked key milestones in embedding falsifiability into methodological discourse, building on Karl Popper's criterion as a demarcation tool for scientific theories. Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962) engaged this indirectly by framing paradigm shifts as responses to persistent anomalies that evade resolution within dominant frameworks, thereby underscoring falsification's role in prompting revolutionary reevaluations over routine verification.^[9]^[14]

Usage in Modern Physics

Critiques of Unfalsifiable Theories

The phrase "not even wrong," attributed to physicist Wolfgang Pauli in reference to a theoretically vague manuscript that offered no testable predictions, has been invoked in modern physics to critique theories lacking empirical falsifiability. In particle physics and cosmology, it underscores dismissals of frameworks with excessive adjustable parameters that can accommodate virtually any observational data, rendering them scientifically inert.^[15] A prominent application arises in critiques of multiverse hypotheses, which posit innumerable universes with varying physical laws to explain fine-tuning in our own cosmos, yet provide no direct observables for verification. Physicist Paul Davies has argued that such ideas merely relocate the explanatory burden to untestable meta-laws governing universe generation, stating, "The multiverse theory... doesn’t so much explain the laws of physics as dodge the whole issue."^[16] Without mechanisms for empirical confrontation, these hypotheses exemplify theories deemed "not even wrong" for evading predictive accountability.^[16] Central to these critiques is the principle that scientific theories must prioritize predictive power and testable bounds over mere descriptive elegance or mathematical sophistication. As emphasized by cosmologist George Ellis and astrophysicist Joseph Silk, unfalsifiable speculations, such as those exempting multiverse claims from experimental scrutiny, erode the rigor of physics by allowing adjustable parameters to retroactively fit outcomes without risk of refutation.^[15] In cosmology, this manifests in proposals for varying fundamental constants across cosmic epochs or regions, often tied to multiverse scenarios, where the absence of specific, bounded predictions—such as measurable spectral deviations—leaves them without empirical leverage.^[15] In particle physics, similar concerns about unfalsifiability have been raised regarding supersymmetry, particularly following null results at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in the 2010s. Supersymmetry extensions predict superpartner particles, but adjustable mass scales and coupling parameters have allowed models to evade detection without unique experimental signatures. Early enthusiasm, including among Soviet theorists around 1982, anticipated confirmation at accessible energies, but prolonged lack of evidence has led to skepticism about the theory's predictive power.^[17] These issues were discussed at conferences, though prominent use of Pauli's phrase in supersymmetry critiques emerged later, in the context of post-LHC reevaluations.^[18] These critiques have profoundly shaped methodological priorities, channeling funding and resources toward experimental verification rather than unchecked speculation. Ellis and Silk warn that tolerating unfalsifiable ideas risks a "loss of public trust" in physics, as seen in post-LHC debates where null results for supersymmetry spurred reevaluation of theoretical commitments and bolstered support for next-generation colliders.^[15] By invoking Pauli's maxim, physicists reinforce falsifiability—rooted in Karl Popper's demarcation criterion—as essential for advancing knowledge, ensuring theories confront data rather than elude it.^[15]

String Theory Controversy

String theory gained prominence in the 1980s through the "first superstring revolution," initiated by the 1984 anomaly cancellation calculation by Michael Green and John Schwarz, which demonstrated that superstring theories could be consistent quantum theories incorporating gravity and resolving inconsistencies in grand unified theories.^[19] This breakthrough fueled optimism for a unified description of all fundamental forces, attracting thousands of physicists to the field and positioning string theory as a leading candidate for a "theory of everything."^[20] However, by the early 2000s, the discovery of the string theory landscape—a vast array of approximately $10^{500} possible vacuum states—emerged as a major challenge, as it implied an immense multiplicity of potential universes, rendering specific predictions about our universe elusive and complicating empirical verification.^[21] Critics have prominently invoked the "not even wrong" critique to question string theory's scientific status, arguing that its flexibility allows post-hoc adjustments to fit data without risking falsification. Peter Woit's 2006 book Not Even Wrong: The Failure of String Theory and the Search for Unity in Physical Law articulates this view, contending that the theory's mathematical inconsistencies and lack of testable predictions have led to a research program that evades traditional scientific scrutiny through continual theoretical refinements rather than empirical confrontation.^[22] Similarly, Lee Smolin's 2006 book The Trouble with Physics: The Rise of String Theory, the Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next reinforces these arguments, asserting that string theory's dominance has marginalized alternative approaches and hindered progress in fundamental physics by prioritizing untestable mathematical elegance over experimental guidance.^[23] Defenders of string theory, including Edward Witten, have countered by emphasizing indirect evidence from dualities such as the AdS/CFT correspondence, proposed by Juan Maldacena in 1997 and further developed by Witten, which equates string theory in anti-de Sitter space to a conformal field theory without gravity, providing a non-perturbative framework for studying quantum gravity effects. Witten has highlighted such tools as offering rigorous consistency checks and insights into black hole physics and quantum information, even if not direct tests of the full theory.^[20] Nonetheless, as of November 2025, string theory lacks direct empirical confirmation. Recent claims of observational support—such as preliminary evidence from 2025 analyses linking swampland conjectures to dark energy models using Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) data—remain highly debated and insufficient to establish falsifiability, with proposed tests (e.g., gravitational experiments at micron scales) still under exploration.^[24]^[25]^[26] The controversy culminated in the 2006 "string wars," a series of public debates in academic journals, conferences, and online forums like the n-Category Café, where physicists including John Baez critiqued string theory's hegemony and its implications for scientific methodology.^[20] These exchanges, amplified by Woit and Smolin's books, influenced career decisions among young physicists, prompting some to pursue alternatives like loop quantum gravity, which Smolin advocated as a more empirically oriented path to quantum gravity.^[23] The debates also spurred broader discussions on funding allocation, with concerns that string theory's resource intensity has diverted support from diverse theoretical approaches.

Broader Applications and Impact

In Other Scientific Fields

The phrase "not even wrong," originating from critiques in physics, has been extended to other scientific disciplines to describe hypotheses or models that evade empirical testing due to vagueness or over-flexibility, rendering them neither verifiable nor refutable. In these fields, it underscores the importance of falsifiability as a cornerstone of scientific rigor, echoing Pauli's original intent while highlighting interdisciplinary methodological challenges. In biology, particularly within 1990s debates on evolutionary psychology, the term has been applied to critiques of modular mind theories that propose numerous specialized cognitive modules shaped by natural selection but lack identifiable genetic or neurological markers for testing. For instance, some accounts of the mind as a collection of domain-specific adaptations have been dismissed as "not even wrong" because they generate post-hoc explanations without predictive power or empirical constraints, akin to unfalsifiable "just-so stories." This usage appeared in critical analyses that questioned the field's reliance on untestable ancestral scenarios without corresponding biological evidence.^[27] In the social sciences, especially economics and econometrics, the phrase critiques models that incorporate excessive parameters, allowing them to fit any dataset post hoc and thus become non-testable. More recently, aggregate production functions in growth economics have been labeled "not even wrong" for assuming linear relationships between capital and output that hold by construction rather than empirical validation, making them immune to falsification despite widespread use.^[28] In climate science, the phrase has surfaced in post-2000 discussions to dismiss overly flexible modeling approaches that predict extreme events without specified falsifiable thresholds, such as broad projections adaptable to any outcome. For example, critiques of attribution studies have called certain claims "not even wrong" when they attribute weather events to climate change without rigorous statistical baselines.^[29] This reflects ongoing debates about ensuring climate models produce testable predictions amid complex natural variability. In emerging fields like AI ethics by the 2020s, "not even wrong" has been used to critique unfalsifiable bias-detection frameworks that lack standardized benchmarks or causal definitions for fairness. A 2018 systematic review of machine learning literature highlighted how many algorithmic fairness demonstrations are empirically incomplete, failing to test interventions across diverse scenarios and thus evading meaningful evaluation.^[30] Similarly, debates over counterfactual fairness in AI have labeled some parity-based approaches "not even wrong" for conflating correlation with causation without interventional evidence, hindering progress in ethical AI deployment.^[31]

Cultural and Media References

The phrase "not even wrong" gained prominence in popular media through coverage of debates in theoretical physics, particularly the so-called "string wars." A notable example is Jim Holt's 2006 article "Unstrung" in The New Yorker, which explored the controversy surrounding string theory and directly referenced the term as borrowed from Peter Woit's forthcoming book, highlighting how the theory's lack of testable predictions rendered it immune to standard scientific critique.^[32] In popular literature beyond academic critiques, the phrase has been invoked to challenge unfalsifiable ideas in fields like probability and economics. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his 2013 review of The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal by James Franklin, described certain historical and modern treatments of probability—such as those in Peter L. Bernstein's Against the Gods—as "not even wrong" due to their fundamental misconceptions about odds and randomness, extending Pauli's dismissal to unreliable economic modeling.^[33] Online, the term emerged early in blog culture with Peter Woit's Not Even Wrong weblog, launched in March 2004, which became a key platform for public discourse on theoretical physics shortcomings and attracted widespread attention during the mid-2000s string theory debates.^[34] As of 2024-2025, discussions on Reddit's r/Physics subreddit have repurposed the phrase to scrutinize hype around artificial intelligence applications in physics, such as AI-driven explorations of string theory landscapes, with users arguing that overly speculative claims about AI's revolutionary potential in fundamental physics often evade empirical falsification.^[35] The phrase has also shaped broader public skepticism toward scientific claims in non-academic media, fostering a cultural wariness of untestable hypotheses. This influence underscores a shift in public engagement with science, emphasizing demands for falsifiability over aesthetic appeal.

References

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Nov 1, 2006 · It's not even wrong." I call this Pauli's proverb. Columbia University mathematician Peter Woit recently employed Pauli's proverb in his book ...Missing: origin | Show results with:origin<|control11|><|separator|>
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Is String Theory Even Wrong? | American Scientist
It is best described by Wolfgang Pauli's famous phrase, "It's not even wrong. ... At the moment string theory cannot be falsified by any conceivable experimental ...
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Who was “Not Even Wrong” first? - Columbia Math Department
Apr 10, 2023 · Wolfgang Pauli's remark “Das is nicht einmal falsch” (“That is not even wrong”) was made not as a comment on a seminar talk but as a reaction to a paper by a ...Missing: anecdote primary source
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Oct 31, 2009 · but on which he wanted Pauli's views. Pauli remarked sadly, “That's not right. It's not even wrong.[2]” Pauli reserved this particularly harsh.
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