Fact-checked by Grok 2 weeks ago

Aridity index

The aridity index is a dimensionless climatological indicator that quantifies the dryness of a region's by comparing long-term average to evaporative demand, most commonly formulated as the of annual (P) to (), where values below 0.20 denote hyper-arid conditions, 0.20–0.50 arid, 0.50–0.65 semi-arid, and above 0.65 increasingly humid regimes. This metric, adopted by organizations such as the for delineating global drylands and assessing desertification vulnerability, integrates empirical data with PET estimates derived from , , and to reflect water availability deficits causally linked to stress and limitations. Alternative formulations, such as the De Martonne index (AI = P / (T + 10), with T as mean annual in °C), simplify computation using as a for evaporative potential and enable regional classification in data-sparse areas, though they may underrepresent -driven in equatorial zones. Global applications reveal stark spatial patterns, with vast hyper-arid extents in the , Atacama, and Australian interior, while projected warming amplifies and erodes values, exacerbating aridity trends in subtropical belts independent of precipitation shifts alone. These indices underpin causal analyses of ecological thresholds, informing land-use policies without reliance on politicized narratives, as their validity stems from direct hydrological balances validated across peer-reviewed datasets spanning decades.

Definition and Fundamentals

Core Concept and Purpose

The aridity index quantifies the degree of climatic dryness at a location by comparing precipitation availability to atmospheric evaporative demand, serving as a key metric for assessing water balance deficits. Commonly formulated as the ratio of mean annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET), where AI = P / PET, values below 0.65 indicate dry conditions, with lower ratios denoting increasing aridity. Potential evapotranspiration represents the maximum water loss possible from soil and vegetation under prevailing energy inputs, incorporating effects of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation, thus providing a more comprehensive gauge of aridity than precipitation alone. This index embodies the core principle that aridity arises from insufficient moisture relative to evaporative potential, enabling differentiation between humid regimes (AI > 0.65) and progressively drier categories such as semi-arid (0.20–0.50) and arid (<0.20) zones, as standardized by frameworks like the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). By integrating , which empirically correlates with actual evapotranspiration under non-limiting water conditions, the index accounts for causal drivers of moisture limitation beyond mere rainfall totals. The primary purpose of the aridity index is to delineate global drylands for bioclimatic classification, informing assessments of drought vulnerability, land degradation risks, and ecosystem productivity limits. It supports policy applications in resource management, such as identifying areas susceptible to desertification under the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, and aids in projecting climate change impacts on water availability by highlighting shifts in the precipitation-evapotranspiration imbalance. In hydrological and agricultural contexts, it evaluates long-term suitability for irrigation and crop yields, prioritizing empirical data on water deficits over simplistic rainfall metrics.

Basic Calculation Principles


The aridity index quantifies climatic dryness by comparing mean annual precipitation, typically denoted as P in millimeters, to potential evapotranspiration PET, which represents the maximum possible water loss to the atmosphere under prevailing conditions assuming unlimited soil moisture. The core formula, standardized by UNESCO, is AI = \frac{P}{PET}, yielding a dimensionless value where AI < 1 indicates a water deficit conducive to aridity. This ratio captures the fundamental balance between water supply from precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand driven by temperature, radiation, humidity, and wind.
Potential evapotranspiration PET is estimated through models that integrate climatic variables; the Penman-Monteith equation, recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization, combines energy balance with aerodynamic resistance, incorporating net radiation, soil heat flux, temperature, wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit for physical accuracy. Simpler empirical methods, such as the Thornthwaite formula, approximate PET using only mean monthly temperature and daylight hours, making it suitable for data-scarce regions but less precise in non-temperate climates due to its neglect of radiation and humidity effects. Calculations generally employ long-term averages (e.g., 30 years) to mitigate interannual variability and reflect climatic norms. Earlier formulations approximated evaporative demand with temperature proxies, such as AI = \frac{P}{T + k} where T is mean annual temperature in °C and k is an empirical constant (e.g., 10 for De Martonne index), assuming a linear relationship between temperature and evaporation rates under wet conditions. These temperature-based indices provide a basic, computationally simple assessment but underestimate aridity in regions with high solar radiation or low humidity, highlighting the superiority of PET-based approaches for global applicability. All variants emphasize annual or seasonal aggregation to align with hydrological cycles, ensuring the index reflects sustained dryness rather than episodic events.

Historical Development

Early Formulations in the Early 20th Century

One of the earliest conceptual foundations for quantifying aridity emerged from 's 1910 work, which defined arid regions as areas where annual evaporation exceeds precipitation, establishing a basic threshold for dryness based on the balance between water supply and atmospheric demand. This qualitative criterion laid groundwork for later numerical indices by emphasizing the primacy of evaporative loss over mere precipitation deficits. In 1920, R. Lang proposed the Rain Factor Index, calculated as the ratio of mean annual precipitation (P, in mm) to mean annual temperature (T, in °C), or R = \frac{P}{T}, to classify climates from humid to arid based on this simple metric. The index aimed to capture relative moisture availability by inversely relating temperature— a proxy for evaporative potential—to precipitation, though it risked instability in cold regions where T approaches zero. Emmanuel de Martonne advanced this approach in 1926 with his aridity index, I = \frac{P}{T + 10}, where the addition of 10°C to temperature provided a correction for baseline evaporative effects and prevented division by near-zero values in cooler climates. Published in La Météorologie, this formulation enabled broader applicability across temperature regimes and introduced thresholds such as I > 20 for humid conditions and I < 5 for desert aridity, influencing subsequent bioclimatic classifications. These early indices prioritized temperature-precipitation ratios due to limited data on evapotranspiration, reflecting the era's reliance on readily available meteorological observations over complex hydrological modeling.

Mid-20th Century Advances

In 1948, climatologist Charles Warren Thornthwaite introduced a revised global climate classification system that advanced aridity assessment by integrating potential evapotranspiration (PET) into moisture indices, enabling more precise quantification of water deficits in dry regimes. His (Ia) was calculated as Ia = 100 × (annual water deficit / annual PET), where water deficit represents the shortfall between PET and precipitation during periods of insufficient rainfall. This formulation marked a shift from earlier precipitation-temperature ratios by emphasizing evaporative demand, estimated via a temperature-dependent PET formula that required only monthly temperature data and latitude, thus broadening applicability to data-sparse regions. Thornthwaite's approach facilitated bioclimatic zoning, classifying climates from arid (Ia > 100/3) to perhumid based on empirical thresholds derived from U.S. data, influencing subsequent hydrological modeling. By , refinements to his equation incorporated daylight hours, improving accuracy for seasonal variations in solar radiation. During the 1950s, hydrologist Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko further propelled aridity index development through his energy balance framework, defining as the ratio of (Ep) to (P), where values exceeding 1 indicate water-limited conditions. In his 1956 The Heat Balance of the Earth's Surface, Budyko derived empirical curves relating actual to this aridity parameter, demonstrating that evaporation approaches precipitation in humid climates ( < 1) and net radiation in arid ones ( > ~3), grounded in global observational data from diverse biomes. This Budyko hypothesis provided a causal link between climatic and hydrological partitioning, validated against measurements and later extended in his 1961 and 1974 works. These mid-century innovations emphasized physical processes over simplistic ratios, laying foundations for process-based forecasting.

Late 20th Century Standardization Efforts

In the 1970s and 1980s, increasing global awareness of prompted international bodies to pursue standardized metrics for assessing aridity, moving beyond disparate regional indices toward a unified framework for cross-national comparisons. The 1977 United Nations Conference on underscored the need for consistent dryness indicators to map vulnerable , influencing subsequent efforts by organizations like the (UNEP). These initiatives emphasized empirical precipitation-evapotranspiration ratios to quantify water deficits causally linked to , prioritizing data-driven thresholds over subjective classifications. A pivotal advancement occurred in 1992 when UNEP formally defined the aridity index (AI) as the ratio of mean annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET), establishing quantitative thresholds for climatic zones: hyper-arid (AI < 0.05), arid (0.05 ≤ AI < 0.20), semi-arid (0.20 ≤ AI < 0.50), and dry sub-humid (0.50 ≤ AI < 0.65). This formulation, rooted in the Budyko framework's energy-water balance principles, facilitated standardized global mapping by integrating gridded climate data and enabling reproducible assessments of aridity's role in ecological stress. UNEP's approach addressed prior inconsistencies in PET estimation methods, advocating for physically based models like the Penman-Monteith equation to ensure causal accuracy in projections of dryness trends. By the late 1990s, this standardization supported key applications, including the 1997 World Atlas of Desertification, which applied the to delineate 40% of Earth's land surface as drylands requiring monitoring. Empirical validations using station data from 1970–2000 confirmed the index's utility in detecting spatiotemporal aridity shifts, though debates persisted on PET sensitivity to climate model assumptions. These efforts laid groundwork for integrating AI into multilateral environmental agreements, emphasizing verifiable hydrological realism over politicized narratives of land use impacts.

Major Types of Aridity Indices

Precipitation-to-PET Ratios

The precipitation-to-PET ratio, commonly expressed as AI = \frac{P}{PET}, where P is mean annual precipitation and PET is mean annual potential evapotranspiration, quantifies the relative availability of water supply against atmospheric evaporative demand in a given climate.![{\displaystyle AI_{U}={\frac {P}{PET}}}}[center] Values of AI below 1.0 denote aridity, as PET exceeds precipitation, leading to chronic water deficits that constrain vegetation, soil moisture, and hydrological processes; higher values indicate surplus moisture supporting denser biomes. This formulation underpins modern assessments of dryness because PET integrates climatic drivers like temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and wind, providing a more physically grounded metric than precipitation alone. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) standardized thresholds for this ratio in its 1992 World Atlas of Desertification, classifying climates as hyper-arid (AI < 0.05), arid (0.05–0.20), semi-arid (0.20–0.50), dry sub-humid (0.50–0.65), and humid (> 0.65 beyond ). These boundaries align with empirical transitions in , such as shrublands dominating semi-arid zones and steppes in arid ones, derived from long-term observational data across global covering 41% of Earth's land surface. PET estimation varies by method: the temperature-based Thornthwaite formula, PET = 16 \left( \frac{10T}{I} \right)^a K, where T is mean monthly temperature, I is a , a = 1.514, and K adjusts for daylight hours, suits data-sparse regions but underestimates in humid or windy conditions; the Penman-Monteith equation, incorporating net and aerodynamic terms, yields more accurate results where full meteorological data exist, as validated against lysimeter measurements with errors under 10% in diverse climates. Global datasets leverage this ratio for mapping, such as the CGIAR's Global Aridity Index (version 3, 1970–2000 baseline), gridded at 1 km resolution using WorldClim and Hargreaves PET estimates from CRU TS data, revealing that arid and semi-arid zones expanded by 1.2% per decade in some regions due to rising PET from warming. Empirical studies confirm the ratio's utility in predicting thresholds, with shifts occurring sharply below AI = 0.2 in grasslands, though local edaphic factors can buffer extremes. Unlike inverse formulations (PET/P) used in some hydrological models like Budyko's, the P/PET form emphasizes supply limitation directly, facilitating cross-scale comparisons in .

Alternative Formulations

Several alternative formulations of the aridity index rely on ratios of to , serving as proxies for without requiring complex computations of or effects. These indices, developed primarily in the early to mid-20th century, approximate using readily available annual or monthly data on (P, in mm) and mean (T, in °C), assuming temperature correlates with evaporative demand. The De Martonne aridity index, proposed in 1926, is calculated as I_{DM} = \frac{P}{T + 10}, where P is the annual and T is the mean annual . This formulation adds a constant of 10°C to to account for baseline evaporative conditions in humid . Values greater than 60 indicate humid conditions, 30–60 subhumid, 10–30 semi-arid, 5–10 arid, and below 5 hyper-arid, enabling classification of climate zones based on water availability relative to thermal drivers. The Lang aridity index, introduced in 1920, uses a simpler I_L = \frac{P}{T}, directly dividing annual by mean annual without adjustment constants. It yields higher values for wetter climates (e.g., >100 humid, 40–100 semi-arid, <20 arid), but is sensitive to variations and less refined for subtropical regions where the De Martonne adjustment improves correlation with observed dryness. Erinc's aridity index, formulated in 1965, modifies the De Martonne approach as I_E = \frac{P}{2(T + 10)}, incorporating a factor of 2 to emphasize greater aridity in Mediterranean-like climates by amplifying the temperature denominator. Classification thresholds include >35 humid, 20–35 semi-arid, 10–20 arid, and <10 very arid, making it particularly applicable for regional assessments in temperate where seasonal swings influence water deficits. These -based indices, while computationally efficient, may overestimate aridity in areas with high solar radiation or underestimate it under cloudy conditions, as they omit direct evapotranspiration physics present in P/PET formulations.

Applications in Environmental and Resource Management

Climate and Bioclimatic Classification

The aridity index (AI), typically defined as the ratio of to (P/PET), serves as a primary metric for delineating zones, particularly in identifying dryland extents that influence bioclimatic patterns. The (UNEP) standardizes this into five categories based on annual AI values, providing a quantitative framework for assessing water availability relative to atmospheric demand: hyper-arid (AI < 0.05), arid (0.05 ≤ AI < 0.20), semi-arid (0.20 ≤ AI < 0.50), dry sub-humid (0.50 ≤ AI < 0.65), and humid (AI ≥ 0.65). This scheme, derived from empirical global datasets, covers approximately 40% of Earth's land surface as (AI < 0.65), with hyper-arid and arid zones comprising vast desert regions like the and Australian outback. In bioclimatic classification, AI thresholds correlate directly with vegetation physiognomy and biome distributions, as water deficit constrains plant growth and structure. Hyper-arid and arid zones (AI < 0.20) predominantly support biomes with sparse, succulent-adapted and minimal , such as in the or Atacama Deserts, where annual rarely exceeds 250 mm against high PET driven by temperatures above 20°C. Semi-arid regions (0.20 ≤ AI < 0.50) transition to shrublands, steppes, and open woodlands, exemplified by the or North American , where grasses and drought-tolerant species dominate under seasonal water availability supporting moderate productivity. Dry sub-humid areas (0.50 ≤ AI < 0.65) align with savanna-woodland mosaics, as in parts of the Indian , enabling taller vegetation and higher biodiversity before yielding to humid forest biomes beyond AI = 0.65. These linkages stem from causal relationships between aridity-driven water stress and physiological limits of plant , validated through global gridded datasets like those from the FAO and Thornthwaite-based PET models.
Aridity Index (AI) RangeClimate ZoneTypical Biomes and Vegetation
< 0.05Hyper-aridBare deserts, salt flats; negligible vegetation cover
0.05–0.20Deserts with scattered shrubs or dunes; low
0.20–0.50Semi-aridSteppes, shrublands; seasonal grasses and thorny
0.50–0.65Dry sub-humidSavannas, dry forests; mixed woodlands with species
≥ 0.65Tropical/subtropical forests; dense canopy and high productivity
This classification extends to systems like , where integrates with biotemperature to predict boundaries, emphasizing empirical thresholds over qualitative descriptors for reproducible zoning in ecological modeling. Global mappings using satellite-derived data, such as from 1901–2016 reconstructions, reveal these zones' stability in equatorial but expansion risks in mid-latitudes under warming-induced increases.

Assessment of Desertification and Land Degradation

The aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of to (P/PET), serves as a foundational metric in classifying susceptible to , with the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) delineating categories as hyper-arid (AI < 0.05), arid (0.05–0.20), semi-arid (0.20–0.50), and dry sub-humid (0.50–0.65). These thresholds identify regions where chronic water deficits heighten vulnerability to , defined under UNCCD as persistent reduction in biological productivity due to climatic variability, human activities, or both. AI trends are monitored to detect shifts toward greater , which can signal escalating risk when corroborated by vegetation decline or indicators. Global assessments leverage gridded AI datasets to quantify historical and projected degradation. A 2024 UNCCD analysis of trends from 1990–2020 revealed that 77.6% of terrestrial land experienced drier conditions relative to the prior 30-year baseline, with dryland expansion accelerating in regions like and , where AI declines correlated with observed productivity losses in 40% of monitored sites. Peer-reviewed studies integrate AI with , such as (NDVI), to map degradation hotspots; for instance, in southeast , gridded AI identified 15–20% of semi-arid zones as highly susceptible based on 1980–2010 data, emphasizing climatic drying over land-use change in initial risk stratification. In practice, AI informs composite indices for nuanced evaluation, such as the optimal land degradation index (OLDI) for arid zones, which weights alongside and metrics to score severity on a 0–1 , with values exceeding 0.6 indicating critical risk. Regional applications, like Italy's soil-adjusted index, refine standard by incorporating pedological factors, revealing 25% of southern territories at high risk as of 2000–2010 assessments. However, AI alone does not equate , as productivity gains from CO2 fertilization have offset aridity-driven losses in less than 4% of per CMIP6 projections, underscoring the need for multi-factor validation to distinguish climatic from .

Agricultural and Hydrological Planning

Aridity indices guide agricultural planning by identifying regions suitable for specific crops based on water availability relative to demands. In rainfed systems, indices such as the precipitation-to-PET ratio help predict yield reductions; for instance, studies in northeast found that lower aridity index values correlate with higher rainfed crop yields, informing decisions on planting drought-tolerant varieties. Farmers in the U.S. utilize aridity index maps to assess probabilistic risks to corn crops, enabling mid-season adjustments in planting or insurance strategies. In hyper-arid areas like , the index supports scheduling by quantifying moisture deficits, optimizing water application to sustain yields under limited rainfall. For irrigation-dependent agriculture, aridity indices inform water allocation and infrastructure needs. Research in semi-arid employs the to delineate arid zones dominating areas, facilitating tailored plans that minimize over-extraction while maximizing productivity. Globally, projections of increasing , as derived from indices, provide guidelines for adapting , such as shifting to water-efficient hybrids in regions where the exceeds thresholds indicating severe dryness (e.g., AI < 0.2). In China's drying northern plains, satellite-derived indices aid in for water-efficient farming, reducing vulnerability to shortfalls. In hydrological planning, aridity indices assess long-term for operations and mitigation. The index's ratio of to predicts runoff variability; a Budyko framework analysis across U.S. basins showed as the primary driver of trends, guiding allocation during dry periods. Recent reformulations incorporating and river flows enhance its utility for equitable water distribution, as demonstrated in models forecasting severity and climate-induced availability shifts. In global , indices support integrated management by mapping intensification, informing policies on recharge and inter-basin transfers to avert hydrological crises.

Observed Historical Patterns

Observations from 1965 to 2014 reveal a downward trend in the global aridity index (AI), calculated as the ratio of to , at a rate of -0.032 ± 0.018 mm mm⁻¹ per 50 years, indicating widespread . This trend manifested as drying over 61.2% of global land areas, with pronounced decreases in AI exceeding 0.1 per 50 years in regions including , , and , while scattered wetting occurred in parts of , , and northwest . Analysis of the period 1970–2018 confirms an overall increase in global aridity, with the AI declining at a statistically significant rate of 0.0016 yr⁻¹ (p < 0.01), primarily driven by reductions in and rises in across humid and semi-humid zones. Despite this, wetting trends—attributable to enhanced or reduced —affected slightly less than half of the world's land surface, including notable humidification on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Earlier assessments using the aridity index over 1960–2009 identify a in trends, wherein arid zones exhibited slight humidification while humid zones showed modest , accompanied by a reversal in dynamics around 1980 that correlated with accelerating global temperature increases. Regional empirical patterns reinforce these global signals, such as the predominance of slow (negative AI trends) across during the second half of the .

Recent Global Datasets and Mapping

The Global Aridity Index and Potential Evapotranspiration (ET0) Database, Version 3 (Global-AI_PET_v3), released in 2022, provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds, approximately 1 km) global raster datasets of monthly and annual aridity index (AI) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) averaged over the 1970–2000 period. This dataset, developed by an international consortium including CGIAR's Consortium for Spatial Information (CSI), utilizes the FAO Penman-Monteith equation for ET0 estimation and WorldClim v2 precipitation data, enabling detailed mapping of aridity zones worldwide. Aridity classes derived from this database delineate hyper-arid (AI < 0.05), arid (0.05–0.20), semi-arid (0.20–0.50), and dry sub-humid (0.50–0.65) regions, covering approximately 41% of global land area as drylands excluding hyper-arid zones. More recent observational datasets extend coverage into the , such as a gridded global AI reconstruction at 0.05° resolution (approximately 5.5 km) spanning 2003–2022, integrating satellite-derived from products like CHIRPS and ERA5 reanalysis for ET0. This dataset facilitates spatiotemporal analysis of aridity trends, revealing increasing dryness in regions like the Mediterranean and over the period. Additionally, ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets, available from 1950 onward at enhanced resolution, support AI computations by providing consistent land surface variables for global mapping, though they rely on model assimilation of observations rather than purely empirical data. Global mapping efforts using these datasets produce visualizations classifying Earth's land into six AI classes for periods like 1991–2020, with semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones comprising the majority of drylands (about 30% of total land). Such maps highlight concentrations of extreme aridity in the , Australian outback, and parts of , informing assessments of land degradation vulnerability. These resources, often distributed via platforms like Figshare and Engine, prioritize non-commercial use under licensing to support research in climate classification and resource management.

Limitations, Criticisms, and Debates

Methodological and Data Uncertainties

The calculation of the aridity index (AI), typically defined as the ratio of (P) to (PET), is sensitive to the choice of PET estimation method, introducing significant methodological uncertainties. Simpler empirical models like the Thornthwaite equation, which rely primarily on temperature data, often yield different AI values compared to physically based approaches such as the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation, which incorporate radiation, , and wind speed; this discrepancy can alter climatic classifications, with regions shifting between semi-arid and arid categories depending on the method used. For instance, the Thornthwaite method tends to underestimate PET in humid regions and overestimate it in arid ones relative to PM, affecting global AI maps and trend analyses. In arid environments specifically, the PM method has been found to overestimate PET due to unadjusted parameters for low and sparse , necessitating site-specific corrections to reduce errors by up to 20-30%. Precipitation data quality further compounds uncertainties, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where networks are sparse, leading to reliance on or satellite-based estimates that introduce spatial biases. Ground-based precipitation records suffer from undercatch in windy or snowy conditions and inconsistencies in measurement standards across sets, with global gridded products like those from GPCC or CRU exhibiting variances of 10-50 mm/year in due to these gaps. Bias correction techniques applied to raw precipitation can alter AI-derived severity assessments, as demonstrated in studies where corrected inputs shifted trends by 5-15% in regional analyses. Satellite-derived precipitation, while improving coverage, faces validation challenges against in hyper-arid zones, where algorithmic assumptions about cloud properties amplify errors in low-rainfall events. Integrating these components at global scales amplifies uncertainties through mismatches in and input data harmonization; for example, monthly estimates from climate reanalyses like ERA5 may not align with annual aggregates, propagating errors into long-term trends exceeding 10% in heterogeneous terrains. Peer-reviewed evaluations of global datasets highlight that methodological choices, such as geospatial implementation of , contribute to inter-dataset variabilities of up to 0.2 in units, underscoring the need for standardized protocols to mitigate classification inconsistencies. These issues are particularly pronounced in historical reconstructions spanning 1901-2019, where archival data inhomogeneities exacerbate sensitivity to formulations.

Discrepancies in Climate Change Projections

Projections of future () changes under exhibit significant discrepancies across global climate models (GCMs), primarily due to uncertainties in simulating () and (). In phase 5 (CMIP5) ensembles under RCP8.5 scenarios, multi-model means indicate a global decline in by approximately 5-10% by the end of the , signaling increased , but with intermodel standard deviations exceeding 20% in many regions, particularly the and . These spreads arise from biases in GCMs, where overestimation of in dry regions and underestimation of variability amplify projected , while some models show trends in high latitudes due to enhanced moisture convergence. A key methodological discrepancy stems from PET estimation methods, with simpler empirical formulas like Hargreaves overestimating future PET increases by up to 15-20% compared to physically based Penman-Monteith approaches under elevated CO2 and warming conditions, leading to exaggerated AI declines in projections. This is compounded by scenario dependencies: under (SSPs) in CMIP6, low-emission scenarios (e.g., SSP1-2.6) project minimal global AI shifts (less than 2% decline by 2100), whereas high-emission SSP5-8.5 yields 10-15% reductions, but regional projections diverge sharply, with Mediterranean and consistently drying while parts of may humidify. Moreover, near-term projections (2021-2040) show subdued AI changes globally due to internal variability overpowering forced trends, with uncertainties amplified in the tropics where GCMs poorly resolve convective processes. Discrepancies also manifest between AI projections and complementary indicators of land response, such as vegetation dynamics or runoff ratios. While AI often forecasts widespread dryland expansion covering 10-20% of global land by 2100, corresponding ecohydrological models reveal limited desertification (less than 4% of drylands), as vegetation resilience and CO2 fertilization mitigate effective aridity impacts, highlighting overreliance on AI alone for policy inferences. These inconsistencies underscore the need for bias corrections in GCM outputs, which can reduce projected aridification by 20-30% in bias-adjusted simulations, emphasizing that uncorrected model biases systematically overestimate future dryness risks.

Controversies in Desertification Narratives

Narratives surrounding have often emphasized rapid, irreversible expansion of arid conditions driven primarily by anthropogenic and poor , yet empirical data from observations reveal discrepancies, with greening in key regions contradicting predictions of widespread . For instance, the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), established in 1994, has promoted global alarmism, projecting billions affected by , but assessments using (NDVI) data indicate that actual affects far less than 4% of under future scenarios, despite aridity index shifts. This mismatch arises because aridity index, defined as the ratio of to , primarily captures climatic dryness but fails to account for resilience or human interventions that mitigate . A prominent controversy centers on the in , where 1970s-1980s droughts fueled claims of encroaching , with narratives attributing permanence to and climate shifts, yet post-1980s recovery shows pronounced greening across 1982-2010, linked to increased rainfall and adaptive pastoral practices rather than solely CO2 fertilization. NDVI trends indicate a 20-30% increase in the since the 1980s, challenging earlier UN reports of irreversible loss and highlighting how short observation periods in alarmist studies overlooked rainfall variability as the dominant driver over fixed aridity thresholds. Institutions like the IPCC have acknowledged such empirical reversals but persist in framing as expanding, potentially influenced by policy imperatives that prioritize climate attribution over local causal factors like farmer-managed natural regeneration. Critics argue that desertification discourses suffer from politicization, where scientific evidence of stability or reversal—such as global analyses showing no net increase in degraded from 1982-2015—is downplayed to support funding for international interventions like the Great Green Wall initiative, launched in , which has achieved uneven success amid overstated baselines. Peer-reviewed evaluations reveal that index-based classifications overestimate vulnerability by ignoring soil feedback and species shifts, as grasslands converting to scrublands may enhance resilience without altering metrics. This has led to accusations of "scientism and evasion" in mainstream assessments, eroding credibility when ground-truthing exposes narrative biases toward catastrophic projections over data-driven nuance.

Future Projections and Research Directions

Model-Based Forecasts

Global climate models, particularly those from the Phase 6 (CMIP6), provide the primary basis for forecasting future aridity index (AI) trends by simulating (P) and (PET) under (SSPs). These projections compute AI as P/PET, revealing a consensus toward global dryland expansion due to elevated PET from warming temperatures, even where precipitation increases modestly. For instance, ensemble analyses indicate that dry sub-humid and semi-arid zones will predominate in future distributions, with AI values declining across approximately 60-70% of terrestrial land by mid-century under SSP2-4.5 scenarios. Regional hotspots include the , southern Africa, and southwestern , where AI is projected to drop by 10-20% relative to 1970-2000 baselines by 2041-2060. High-emission pathways like SSP5-8.5 amplify these trends, forecasting dryland coverage to exceed 50% of global land by 2100, up from current levels around 41%, driven by disproportionate rises in subtropical highs. However, model ensembles exhibit substantial spread, particularly in projections, leading to in transitional zones; low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6) show muted AI declines, with some mid-latitude wetting offsetting drying elsewhere. Datasets derived from 22 CMIP6 models provide gridded AI estimates at 30 arc-second for periods like 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, enabling downscaled applications in assessments. Critically, the AI's reliance on reference PET formulations, such as Penman-Monteith, can overestimate intensification compared to raw GCM outputs, as it amplifies temperature-driven evaporative demand without fully accounting for physiological feedbacks like stomatal closure under elevated CO2. This discrepancy underscores the need for hybrid indices incorporating dynamic vegetation responses, with forecasts remaining sensitive to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values across models—low-ECS variants project less severe drying than high-ECS ones. Ongoing refinements, including bias-corrected ensembles, aim to narrow these gaps for more robust policy-relevant projections.

Unresolved Challenges and Improvements

One persistent challenge in aridity index projections lies in reconciling discrepancies across models, where estimates of dryland vary significantly due to differences in (PET) parameterization; for instance, traditional Hargreaves-based PET tends to overestimate shifts compared to equilibrium PET (PETe) approaches, leading to projected global dryland increases of up to 11% versus minimal changes when accounting for long-term . This discrepancy arises because many models fail to fully capture radiative-convective feedbacks, resulting in overreliance on short-term temperature-driven PET rises that do not align with observed hydrological realities. Furthermore, the standard AI ratio ( over PET) serves as a suboptimal for future dryness under warming scenarios, as it overlooks productivity boosts from elevated CO2 and does not correlate well with actual or runoff declines, potentially inflating risks in projections. Methodological uncertainties compound these issues, particularly in data inputs for PET estimation, where simplistic temperature-only methods like Thornthwaite underestimate in humid regions and overestimate it in cold ones, while more physically based Penman-Monteith formulations reveal greater sensitivity to and changes not uniformly represented in global datasets. limitations in gridded products also hinder accurate local projections, as coarse scales mask topographic influences on aridity gradients, and historical data gaps in arid zones amplify errors in trend extrapolation. Additionally, conventional AI neglects subsurface components like and river baseflows, which buffer surface signals, leading to incomplete assessments of hydrological severity in projections. Proposed improvements include adopting hybrid PETe formulations in CMIP6+ models to better integrate energy balance constraints, enhancing projection consistency across scenarios like SSP2-4.5, where global AI declines by 5-10% by 2100 but with reduced dryland expansion variance. Integrating remote sensing and reanalysis data for finer-resolution AI grids, as in updated global databases, addresses spatiotemporal gaps and improves validation against empirical drought metrics. Redefining AI to incorporate groundwater and fluvial terms—termed the "extended aridity index"—offers a more causal representation of water availability, aiding resource allocation under climate variability, though standardization across indices remains needed to mitigate biases in multi-model ensembles. Future research should prioritize machine learning-augmented hydrological models to refine PET drivers like vapor pressure deficits, ensuring projections align with causal mechanisms over empirical correlations.

References

  1. [1]
    Version 3 of the Global Aridity Index and Potential ... - Nature
    Jul 15, 2022 · Aridity Index (AI). Aridity is often expressed as a generalized function of precipitation and PET. The ratio of precipitation over PET (or ET0).
  2. [2]
    Patterns of Aridity - WAD | World Atlas of Desertification
    The Aridity Index (AI) is a simple but convenient numerical indicator of aridity based on long-term climatic water deficits and is calculated as the ratio P/PET ...
  3. [3]
    Help center - Aridity Index
    The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) defines drylands according to an Aridity Index (AI), which is the ratio between average annual precipitation ...Missing: definition | Show results with:definition
  4. [4]
    Full article: The De Martonne aridity index in Calabria (Southern Italy)
    The spatial variation of aridity in Calabria has been evaluated using the De Martonne aridity index (IDM), which is based on rainfall and temperature data.
  5. [5]
    [PDF] Evaluation of Grid-Based Aridity Indices in Classifying Aridity Zones ...
    Table 1: Aridity index formulas and input parameters. Aridity Index. Formula. Parameters. Lang. AI = P/T. P = annual precipitation (mm).<|separator|>
  6. [6]
    The aridity Index under global warming - IOPscience
    A widely used (offline) impact model to assess projected changes in aridity is the aridity index (AI) (defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to ...<|separator|>
  7. [7]
    Aridity Index (AI) - Integrated Drought Management Programme
    ... aridity is defined as the ratio of precipitation to mean temperature. Characteristics: Can be used to classify the climates of various regions, because the ...
  8. [8]
    [PDF] Regional and global aridity trends and future projections - UNCCD
    (Lang, 1920), De Martonne's aridity index. (De Martonne, 1926 and 1942) and Emberger's pluviothermic index (Emberger, 1930). The. Pinna Combinative Index ...
  9. [9]
    Chapter 2. The world's drylands
    Aridity is assessed on the basis of climate variables (so-called aridity index), or according to FAO on the basis of how many days the water balance allows ...
  10. [10]
    Version 3 of the Global Aridity Index and Potential ... - NIH
    Jul 15, 2022 · A widely used approach to assess status and changes in aridity is the aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to PET. Aridity ...
  11. [11]
    [PDF] Global Geospatial Potential EvapoTranspiration & Aridity Index
    Global Geospatial Potential EvapoTranspiration & Aridity Index. Methodology ... Global Aridity Index (Global-Aridity) was calculated for the entire globe.
  12. [12]
    [Solved] Ardity index (AI) is defined as (where PET = Potential evapo
    An aridity index (AI) is a numerical indicator of the degree of dryness of the climate at a given location.
  13. [13]
    Assessment of global aridity change - ScienceDirect.com
    The UNESCO aridity index (AI) is based on the ratio of annual precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET). Precipitation and PET are two important ...
  14. [14]
    Aridity Indexes | SpringerLink
    Aridity indexes are quantitative indicators of the degree of water deficiency present at a given location. A variety of aridity indexes have been formulated ...Missing: types | Show results with:types
  15. [15]
    Validation of temperature–precipitation based aridity index
    Quantitatively, it was Penck (1910) who first defined an arid region as the place where annual evaporation exceeds precipitation. This scheme was later improved ...
  16. [16]
    De Martonne, E. (1926) Une nouvelle function climatologique L ...
    Nov 4, 2021 · (1926) Une nouvelle function climatologique: L'indice d'aridité [A New Climatological Function: The Aridity Index]. La Meteorologie, 2, 449-458.
  17. [17]
    [PDF] A REVISED THORNTHWAITE-TYPE GLOBAL CLIMATE ...
    Like the 1948 Thornthwaite climate classification, the new index also uses PE as a surrogate for thermal efficiency or energy input to the environment. This ...
  18. [18]
    [PDF] Trend of Thornthwaite's Aridity Index (AI) at Atakpame (Togo)
    ▫ Thornthwaite's Aridity Index (AI): Thornthwaite (1948) model AI = 100. P. ETo . Results and Discussions. Distributions of the average daily reference ...
  19. [19]
    [PDF] Exploring the application of the Thornthwaite Moisture Index to ...
    In 1948 the Thornthwaite Moisture Index was introduced as a new global climate classification system. Since its advent, the use of the index has moved ...<|separator|>
  20. [20]
    [PDF] Global Geospatial Potential EvapoTranspiration & Aridity Index
    An Aridity Index (UNEP, 1997) can be used to quantify precipitation availability over atmospheric water demand.
  21. [21]
    Hydrological Basis of the Budyko Curve: Data‐Guided Exploration of ...
    Oct 2, 2020 · The Budyko curve also for the first time introduced the aridity index, the ratio of potential evaporation (Ep) to precipitation (P), which ...
  22. [22]
    Fewer Basins Will Follow Their Budyko Curves Under Global ...
    For decades, the Budyko framework (Budyko, 1948, 1974) has been used to understand hydroclimatic change by studying the relationship between water and energy ...<|separator|>
  23. [23]
    Calculated UNEP aridity index (AI U , UNEP, 1992). a) CRU ...
    Aridity regimes are defined as: humid-NAI U ≥ 1, dry land-N0.65 ≤ AI U b 1, dry sub-humid-N0.5 ≤ AI U b 0.65, semi-arid-N 0.20 ≤ AI U ...
  24. [24]
  25. [25]
    Characterizing the aridity indices and potential evapotranspiration ...
    Mar 25, 2024 · The current study aims to estimate climate change and quantify the changes in the aridity and evapotranspiration of two distinct areas in Ethiopia.
  26. [26]
    A note on some uncertainties associated with Thornthwaite's aridity ...
    Oct 1, 2021 · This work deals with the uncertainties introduced by the use of different PET methods in the estimation of the aridity index AI.
  27. [27]
    Ecological mechanisms underlying aridity thresholds in global ...
    Oct 30, 2021 · Aridity—referred throughout this review as 1 – Aridity Index (the ratio between annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration)—is a major ...
  28. [28]
    Spatial evaluation of climate change-induced drought characteristics ...
    May 15, 2023 · The De Martonne aridity index is based on the aridity index I = P/(T + 10), in which T is the average temperature (°C), while P is the average ...
  29. [29]
    Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A ...
    Aug 16, 2023 · We used three aridity indices: the Pinna combinative index, the Erinç aridity index and the UNEP aridity index. These indices were calculated ...Abstract · DATA AND METHODS · RESULTS · CONCLUSIONS
  30. [30]
    Figure 3.1 — Special Report on Climate Change and Land
    Geographical distribution of drylands, delimited based on the aridity index (AI). The classification of AI is: Humid AI > 0.65, Dry sub-humid 0.50 < AI ≤ 0.65.
  31. [31]
    The Global Threat of Drying Lands | United Nations iLibrary
    The report underscores the importance of adopting a widely accepted climatic approach based on the aridity index (AI)—a measure of aridity that uses the ratio ...
  32. [32]
    Three-Quarters of Earth's Land Became Permanently Drier in Last ...
    Dec 9, 2024 · Some 77.6% of Earth's land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period.
  33. [33]
    (PDF) Aridity Indices to Assess Desertification Susceptibility
    Overall, the aridity indices based on climate gridded presented good performance when used to identify areas susceptible to desertification. Susceptible areas ...
  34. [34]
    Comprehensive assessment of land degradation in the arid and ...
    This study developed the optimal land degradation index (OLDI) model for arid and semiarid areas. The model utilized a system that assessed soil condition, ...
  35. [35]
    Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite ...
    Jun 5, 2024 · The aridity index will not be a good indicator of drylands in future climates. We found a broad boost to dryland vegetation productivity due to ...
  36. [36]
    CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential ...
    By consolidating the complex concept of aridity into a single numerical value, the utilization of aridity indices enables both spatial and temporal comparisons.
  37. [37]
    Increasing corn crop value | NOAA Climate.gov
    Jun 5, 2014 · Farmers could look at the Aridity Index maps and calculate the probability of risks to their own crops as well as see how neighboring crop ...Missing: applications | Show results with:applications
  38. [38]
    The effect of irrigation and drainage management on crop yield in ...
    Egypt is characterized as a hyper-arid climate region according to the FAO [10] aridity index (AI), with very limited rainfall at the Northern coast in the ...
  39. [39]
    Rainfall Distribution Functions for Irrigation Scheduling: Calculation ...
    Values of aridity index obtained herein points to: 1) Tunisia is not concerned with humid and sub-humid climates. 2) Arid and semi-arid climate dominate the ...
  40. [40]
    [PDF] Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through ...
    Mar 8, 2018 · Aridity index, defined as the ratio of the mean annual precipitation ... It can provide a guideline for future agricultural research planning and ...
  41. [41]
    Satellite-derived aridity index reveals China's drying in recent two ...
    Feb 13, 2023 · The spatial pattern of AI is helpful for the planning and efficient utilization of agricultural water resources. In this study, we design an ...
  42. [42]
    An Aridity Index‐Based Formulation of Streamflow Components - 2020
    Sep 4, 2020 · We investigate the role of the aridity index (ratio between mean-annual potential evapotranspiration and precipitation) in controlling the long-term (mean- ...
  43. [43]
    Hydrologists redefine aridity index to include river and groundwater ...
    Aug 14, 2025 · The aridity index is an invaluable tool used for estimating how dry (or how humid) a location is based on the precipitation and ...
  44. [44]
    Aridity and drought: Here is the global, spatial detailed database on ...
    Jul 1, 2025 · ... aridity index, which compares rainfall to potential water loss. At the core of the study is the release of a high-resolution (approximately ...
  45. [45]
    Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity - Nature
    Dec 21, 2021 · Defined as the ratio of annual precipitation to PET, the aridity index (AI) has been widely used to characterize the degree of meteorological ...Missing: late | Show results with:late<|separator|>
  46. [46]
    An overall consistent increase of global aridity in 1970–2018
    Mar 11, 2023 · This study investigated spatiotemporal variability within global aridity index (AI) values from 1970–2018. The results revealed an overall drying trend.
  47. [47]
    Changes in Aridity across Mexico in the Second Half ... - AMS Journals
    Our findings show that slow aridization (negative trend in the aridity index) is predominant during the second half of the twentieth century across the Mexican ...
  48. [48]
    Global Aridity and PET Database – CGIAR-CSI - WordPress.com
    The Global Potential Evapotranspiration (Global-PET) and Global Aridity Index (Global-Aridity) dataset provides high-resolution global raster climate data.
  49. [49]
    Global map of the six aridity index (AI) classes for 1991–2020. The ...
    By the end of the century, rising aridity could transform one-fifth of all land, shifting ecosystems and causing widespread extinctions of plants, animals ...
  50. [50]
    The global map of aridity - CMCC Foundation
    Apr 8, 2022 · The global aridity map uses a high-resolution database with an Aridity Index, calculated as a ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration, to ...
  51. [51]
    Global Aridity Index and Potential Evapotranspiration (ET0) Database
    Jul 17, 2025 · High-resolution (30 arc-seconds) global raster datasets of average monthly and annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI)
  52. [52]
    Global Aridity Index - awesome-gee-community-catalog
    Sep 2, 2022 · Aridity Index represent the ratio between precipitation and ET0, thus rainfall over vegetation water demand (aggregated on annual basis).
  53. [53]
    A note on some uncertainties associated with Thornthwaite's aridity ...
    Oct 1, 2021 · Thornthwaite's Aridity Index (AI) was estimated by employing the well-known and widely used formula proposed by Thornthwaite (1948). AI ...
  54. [54]
    Uncertainty assessment of potential evapotranspiration in arid areas ...
    Apr 1, 2020 · We recommend that some parameters must be corrected when using PM in order to estimate potential evapotranspiration in arid regions.
  55. [55]
    (PDF) Uncertainty assessment of potential evapotranspiration in arid ...
    Aug 7, 2025 · Third, the PM method significantly overestimated the potential evapotranspiration in the arid area. This difference in estimation was closely ...
  56. [56]
    Global reconstruction of gridded aridity index and its spatial and ...
    For each region, we classified the aridity levels according to the climate classification scheme for Aridity Index values provided by UNEP (UNEP Citation1997).<|separator|>
  57. [57]
    Bias correction of precipitation data and its effects on aridity and ...
    Oct 15, 2018 · This research investigates how drought severity changes as the result of bias-corrected precipitation (P c ) using the Erinc's index I m and standardized ...
  58. [58]
    Spatiotemporal changes in global aridity in terms of multiple aridity ...
    The present study assessed spatiotemporal changes in global aridity over the period 1901–2019, using five aridity indices, i.e., De Martonne aridity index (AIDM) ...
  59. [59]
    The Influence of Climate Model Biases on Projections of Aridity and ...
    This study examines the differences in projected changes of aridity [defined as the ratio of precipitation (P) over potential evapotranspiration (PET), or P/PET] ...
  60. [60]
    An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics - IOPscience
    May 3, 2024 · We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small.
  61. [61]
    Global projections of aridity index for mid and long-term future based ...
    Jan 24, 2025 · This study evaluates and projects global aridity index (AI) and dryland distribution using the FAO Aridity Index based on Penman-Monteith potential ...
  62. [62]
    Reconciling the Discrepancy in Projected Global Dryland Expansion ...
    Mar 1, 2025 · This apparent discrepancy between changes in the aridity index and ecohydrological variables raises questions about the accuracy of the ...
  63. [63]
    Bias‐corrections on aridity index simulations of climate models by ...
    Jul 1, 2021 · Aridity Index is a widely used indicator on aridity assessment and desertification, while it is poorly simulated in climate models due to ...
  64. [64]
    Desertification–Scientific Versus Political Realities - MDPI
    A problem with the NDVI-based assessments of desertification is the inability to determine vegetation species composition. A change from grassland to scrubland ...
  65. [65]
    Desertification, resilience, and re-greening in the African Sahel - ESD
    This paper discusses the concepts of desertification, resilience, and re-greening by addressing four main aspects.
  66. [66]
    [PDF] THE SAHEL IS GREENING - The Global Warming Policy Foundation
    24 Claussen has considered the likelihood of a greening of the Sahara due to global warming and concluded that an expansion of vegetation into today's Sahara is ...
  67. [67]
  68. [68]
    Re-Greening of the Sahel | Columbia Climate School
    This paper looks at the pattern of and relationship between vegetation greenness and rainfall variability in the African Sahel.
  69. [69]
    Chapter 3 : Desertification
    ... desertification (beyond changes in the aridity index) are lacking. The knowledge of future climate change impacts on such desertification processes as soil ...
  70. [70]
    The desertification myth? - Global Challenges
    Nov 8, 2019 · The combat against desertification and land degradation dates back to the mid-1960s, when the West-African Sahel was hit by a succession of droughts.<|separator|>
  71. [71]
    Desertification: Loss of credibility despite the evidence - ResearchGate
    Aug 7, 2025 · The reasons for loss of credibility are scientism and evasion, which feed oversimplification and confusion as the primary reasons.Missing: overestimation | Show results with:overestimation
  72. [72]
    CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential ...
    The “Future_Global_AI_PET Database” provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds) average annual and monthly global estimates of potential evapotranspiration ...
  73. [73]
    CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential ...
    May 16, 2025 · The "Future_Global_AI_PET Database" provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds) average annual and monthly global estimates of potential ...
  74. [74]
    [PDF] Global projections of aridity index for mid and long-term future based ...
    Jan 23, 2025 · This study evaluates and projects global aridity index (AI) and dryland distribution using the FAO Aridity Index based on. Penman-Monteith ...