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Maddison Project

The Maddison Project is a collaborative academic initiative hosted by the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) at the University of Groningen, dedicated to compiling, updating, and disseminating historical estimates of economic performance, including GDP per capita and population data, across more than 160 countries from Roman times to 2022.^[1]^[2] Launched in March 2010 by a group of colleagues of the pioneering economic historian Angus Maddison (1926–2010), the project continues and expands his lifelong work on measuring long-term economic growth and comparative income levels globally.^[3]^[4] Maddison, a professor at the University of Groningen from 1978 to 1995, originated these efforts in the 1960s through publications with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), culminating in datasets that trace economic trends back to 1 CE for select regions.^[4] Under the leadership of researchers such as Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, the project employs a "Maddison-style" methodology that integrates purchasing power parity (PPP) benchmarks—most notably the 1990 International Comparison Program—to ensure cross-country comparability, while incorporating new historical data and revisions for accuracy.^[2]^[1] The Maddison Project Database (MPD), its core output, has evolved through multiple releases, with the 2023 version introducing over 2,800 new pre-1820 data points, extending annual estimates to 2022 using sources like the United Nations and Total Economy Database, and refining benchmarks for periods before 1940.^[2]^[5] This database has become a foundational resource in economic history, enabling analyses of global inequality, the Great Divergence between Europe and Asia, and post-1950 growth patterns, and it supports interdisciplinary research by providing downloadable datasets in multiple formats for scholars worldwide.^[4]^[1]

History

Origins with Angus Maddison

Angus Maddison (1926–2010) was a British economist whose career focused on quantitative analysis of long-term economic growth and development across civilizations.^[6] Born in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, he studied at the University of Cambridge, McGill University, and Johns Hopkins University before working at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and later serving as a professor at the University of Groningen from 1978 to 1997, where he founded the Groningen Growth and Development Centre.^[7] Maddison's research emphasized the historical trajectories of national incomes, challenging conventional narratives by quantifying economic performance over millennia to understand patterns of convergence and divergence among economies.^[8] Beginning in the 1970s, Maddison pioneered systematic estimates of GDP per capita for major economies, initially focusing on the modern era to trace industrialization's impact.^[9] His early work, such as the 1995 publication Monitoring the World Economy: 1820–1992, provided benchmark data for 56 countries from 1820 onward, highlighting the West's rapid growth during the 19th and 20th centuries compared to other regions.^[10] Over time, he expanded this scope dramatically, constructing estimates extending back to 1 AD for up to 24 countries and regions, enabling analysis of pre-industrial economic structures and long-run stagnation in many parts of the world.^[11] Maddison's seminal publications crystallized these efforts. In The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (2001), he presented comprehensive GDP per capita series from year 1 to 1998 in international dollars, underscoring how Western Europe's per capita income surpassed that of China and India around 1820 and grew exponentially thereafter.^[11] This was complemented by The World Economy: Historical Statistics (2003), which offered detailed annual data from 1820 to 1998 for a broader set of variables, including population and total GDP, across 42 countries and eight world regions.^[11] These works drew on diverse archival sources, such as national accounts, tax records, and wage data, to fill gaps in official statistics.^[3] A cornerstone of Maddison's methodology was the use of purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustments, which converted nominal GDP figures into a common international currency to account for differences in price levels and living costs across countries and eras.^[3] By benchmarking against 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars—a PPP standard—he ensured comparable real income measures, revealing, for instance, that global per capita GDP remained largely flat at around $450 (in 1990 dollars) from 1 AD to 1820 before surging in the industrializing West.^[12] This approach not only facilitated cross-country comparisons but also highlighted structural shifts, such as Asia's historical dominance giving way to Europe's rise.^[13]

Establishment as a Collaborative Project

The Maddison Project was formally launched in March 2010, shortly before Angus Maddison's death in April of that year, by a group of his close colleagues at the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) of the University of Groningen, marking the transition from his individual research efforts to an institutional collaborative initiative.^[3]^[14] This establishment aimed to institutionalize and extend Maddison's pioneering work on long-term economic growth data, ensuring its ongoing maintenance and accessibility through a structured academic framework.^[3] The project was led by prominent economic historians Jan Luiten van Zanden and Jutta Bolt, who served as directors from 2010 onward, coordinating contributions from a network of international scholars specializing in historical national accounts.^[15] Under their guidance at the GGDC, the initiative focused on fostering systematic collaboration to address the challenges of updating and refining historical economic datasets.^[8] The primary objectives were to update and expand Maddison's original estimates with new data and methodologies, while standardizing formats for comparability and rigorously preserving his unaltered core estimates as a historical benchmark.^[3] This approach built upon Maddison's foundational methodologies as a starting point, emphasizing scholarly cooperation to enhance the dataset's reliability and scope without overwriting its legacy.^[14] An early milestone was the release of the first Maddison Project Database in 2013, which incorporated economic data extending up to 2010 and represented the initial collaborative effort to integrate post-Maddison updates.^[16] This version laid the groundwork for subsequent iterations, demonstrating the project's commitment to timely advancements in historical economic measurement.^[17]

Methodology

Data Sources and Collection

The Maddison Project Database primarily relies on national historical accounts as its foundational data sources, drawing from country-specific reconstructions of GDP and related economic indicators compiled by historians and economists. These accounts often follow the System of National Accounts (SNA) framework, incorporating output-based approaches for nations like Britain, the Netherlands, and Sweden, where sector-specific production records—such as agricultural yields and industrial outputs—are used to estimate economic activity.^[2] For other countries, including France, Spain, and Italy, consumption-based methods integrate census data on population and household expenditures to derive baseline figures.^[2] Sector-specific records, particularly from agriculture and early industry, provide granular insights into pre-modern economies, with examples including regional studies on Japan's agricultural output and manufacturing.^[2] To ensure cross-country comparability, the project incorporates international compilations such as the Penn World Table for post-1950 benchmarking, which supplies standardized GDP estimates in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms to align disparate national series.^[2] These international sources help bridge gaps in individual national datasets, facilitating the aggregation of long-run time series for over 169 countries.^[2] Data scarcity poses significant challenges, especially for non-Western countries like those in Sub-Saharan Africa before 1950 and China prior to 2005, where comprehensive national accounts are often absent due to limited record-keeping.^[2] To address this, the project employs proxy indicators such as real wage records, urbanization rates, and trade volumes as indirect measures of economic output and population dynamics.^[2] For instance, wage data from urban centers serves as a surrogate for productivity in labor-intensive sectors.^[2] Validation protocols emphasize rigorous cross-referencing with contemporary scholarly studies to verify consistency and accuracy. Independent benchmarks, such as those from Broadberry et al. (2018) on European economies or Ward and Devereux (2021) for global comparisons, are consulted to reconcile discrepancies across sources.^[2] This process ensures that raw data from diverse origins—ranging from archival census returns to international yearbooks—meets standards for reliability before integration into the database.^[2]

Estimation and Adjustment Techniques

The Maddison Project Database employs purchasing power parity (PPP) benchmarks to convert nominal GDP figures into comparable real GDP per capita estimates across countries and time periods, ensuring adjustments for differences in price levels and living costs. Key benchmarks include the 1990 International Comparison Program (ICP) in Geary-Khamis (GK) dollars, which serves as the primary reference for pre-1990 estimates, and the 2011 ICP benchmark in GK dollars for post-1990 data, allowing for consistent international comparisons. These benchmarks are applied by linking national GDP series to the reference year, where real output levels are expressed relative to a numeraire country (typically the United States), with conversions using PPP exchange rates derived from expenditure baskets in agriculture, manufacturing, and services.^[2]^[2] For years without direct data, the project uses interpolation and extrapolation techniques to fill gaps, relying on growth rate assumptions from available benchmark periods or national accounts. Interpolation between benchmarks, such as from 1990 to 2011, involves estimating intermediate values by applying relative price changes and volume growth rates observed in ICP rounds, often using a multiple-benchmark approach that weights successive PPPs based on their proximity to the target year. Extrapolation beyond the latest benchmark (e.g., post-2011 up to 2022) applies annual growth rates from domestic sources like national accounts, assuming constant relative prices unless adjusted for structural shifts, to maintain temporal consistency in long-run series.^[2]^[2] Sectoral decomposition in the database allocates total GDP to major sectors—agriculture, industry, and services—primarily based on employment shares when direct output data is scarce, particularly for historical periods before reliable national accounts. This method estimates value added in each sector by multiplying employment shares (derived from censuses or labor force surveys) by sector-specific productivity levels, benchmarked against PPP-adjusted output from ICP data; for instance, agricultural GDP is often derived from crop yields and livestock inventories adjusted for regional price parities. Such decompositions enable disaggregated analysis of structural change, with total GDP reconstructed as the sum of sectoral value added before per capita division.^[2]^[2] GDP per capita (GDPpc) is calculated as the ratio of total GDP—estimated as the sum of value added across sectors—to population size, with all figures expressed in constant PPP terms for cross-country comparability. Growth rates are derived using the logarithmic difference formula to approximate percentage changes:

g_t = \left( \ln(\text{GDPpc}_t) - \ln(\text{GDPpc}_{t-1}) \right) \times 100,

where g_t represents the annual growth rate in period t, providing a continuous measure that aligns with exponential growth assumptions in economic models and facilitates aggregation over multi-year spans. This approach ensures that growth estimates reflect both level shifts from benchmarks and volume changes from interpolated series.^[2]^[2]

Database Content

Key Variables and Indicators

The Maddison Project Database centers on real GDP per capita as its primary variable, expressed in 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars to facilitate cross-country comparisons of economic output per person over time. This metric is constructed by dividing a country's total real GDP by its population and adjusting for differences in price levels using PPP exchange rates derived from International Comparison Program (ICP) benchmarks, ensuring that the value reflects comparable living standards and productivity levels across economies. The 2011 PPP base year aligns the series with modern ICP data, allowing for consistent historical extrapolations backward from contemporary national accounts.^[2] Secondary indicators include total real GDP, also in 2011 PPP dollars, which aggregates national economic output and is derived by multiplying GDP per capita by population estimates; population data itself, sourced from historical demographic reconstructions and official statistics to provide the denominator for per capita calculations; and average hours worked per person, available from 1870 onward in applicable versions, which captures labor input trends based on labor force surveys and economic records. These variables enable analyses of aggregate growth, demographic influences, and labor utilization patterns.^[2] A key productivity measure incorporated is GDP per hour worked, calculated as total GDP divided by the product of population and average hours worked per person:

\text{GDP per hour worked} = \frac{\text{GDP}}{\text{Population} \times \text{Average Hours Worked}}

This indicator, expressed in 2011 PPP dollars per hour, isolates labor efficiency by accounting for both workforce size and working time, offering insights into technological and organizational advancements beyond mere output per capita. The database's benchmarks, initially established for 43 countries using 1990 ICP data with Geary-Khamis PPPs, have been extended to 2018 for broader coverage by integrating the 2011 ICP round and adjusting intervening growth rates to maintain consistency with national accounts, thus enhancing the reliability of long-run productivity comparisons.^[2]

Temporal and Geographic Scope

The Maddison Project Database 2023 version provides comprehensive coverage of economic indicators across 169 countries, organized into aggregate regions such as Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia excluding Japan, and the Middle East and North Africa.^[13]^[18] This geographic scope encompasses nearly all modern nation-states, enabling global comparisons of economic performance.^[1] The 2023 version introduces over 2,800 new pre-1820 data points, significantly enhancing historical coverage. Temporally, the core dataset spans from 1820 to 2022, offering annual estimates for most countries and regions to facilitate analysis of long-term growth trends.^[13] However, for select areas including Western Europe and major powers like China, Japan, and the United States, the coverage extends back to 1 AD, providing millennia-spanning series on GDP per capita and population that highlight deep historical patterns in economic development.^[18]^[1] Coverage is more limited for certain regions prior to 1950, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where data for only nine countries begin from 1845, and in Latin America where estimates are sparse before the mid-19th century despite some series dating to 1600.^[13] For the most recent years from 2018 to 2022, the database incorporates updates drawn from international sources including the United Nations national accounts and the Conference Board's Total Economy Database, alongside national statistics, to ensure continuity with contemporary economic data.^[13]^[1]

Versions and Updates

Original Dataset (Pre-2010)

The original dataset compiled by Angus Maddison before the formation of the collaborative Maddison Project in 2010 featured estimates of GDP per capita, total GDP, and population levels, with primary coverage spanning from 1820 to 2003. While primary country-level data began in 1820, the dataset included benchmark estimates and aggregates for earlier periods, such as from 1 AD for major regions. Initially centered on advanced economies—primarily Western European nations, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Japan—the dataset expanded in subsequent updates. By the early 2000s, it had expanded to include estimates for over 160 countries, covering both advanced and developing economies from 1820 onward, with regional aggregates extending back to 1 AD.^[19]^[20] These estimates were expressed in 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars, a purchasing power parity unit designed to facilitate cross-country and cross-time comparisons by adjusting for differences in price levels and exchange rates.^[21]^[13] A key structural feature of the dataset was its reliance on benchmark years (e.g., 1820, 1870, 1913, 1950) for interpolation and extrapolation of annual series, drawing from national accounts, historical records, and proxy indicators like agricultural output or trade volumes where direct data were unavailable. For instance, GDP per capita growth rates were backward-projected from post-1950 national accounts data, with adjustments for pre-modern periods based on qualitative historical assessments. This approach enabled broad temporal continuity but introduced variability in precision across regions and eras. The dataset's geographic scope, while ambitious, prioritized countries with reliable archival sources, resulting in fuller series for Europe and North America compared to Asia, Africa, and Latin America.^[22]^[23] Notable limitations included an overemphasis on Western data sources, which led to more robust estimates for advanced economies but greater reliance on extrapolations and secondary accounts for non-Western regions, potentially understating or oversimplifying economic dynamics in those areas. Population estimates for early periods, such as the 19th century, were particularly rudimentary, often derived from sparse census records, colonial reports, or demographic models with wide margins of error—for example, pre-1880 figures for regions like North Africa varied dramatically due to inconsistent Western observer accounts. These constraints highlighted the dataset's pioneering yet provisional nature, serving as a foundational resource that later project versions would refine.^[24]^[13] Distribution of the original dataset occurred primarily through OECD publications, including the seminal 2003 volume The World Economy: Historical Statistics, which included extensive tables and methodological appendices, as well as via Maddison's personal website hosted by the Groningen Growth and Development Centre, offering downloadable Excel files and updates up to 2009.^[20]^[3]

Major Releases Post-2010

The 2013 version of the Maddison Project Database extended coverage to 2010, incorporating recent research by economic historians to update estimates of GDP per capita and population for 169 countries from AD 1 onward.^[25] A key methodological shift involved adopting 1990 international dollars as the benchmark for purchasing power parity (PPP) comparisons, replacing earlier benchmarks to improve consistency with contemporary standards. These changes maintained methodological consistency with Angus Maddison's original framework while expanding the dataset's utility for long-run growth studies.^[25] The 2018 version further extended temporal coverage to 2016, providing updated GDP per capita and population series for the full set of 169 countries.^[26] It incorporated 2011 PPP benchmarks for post-1990 estimates, enhancing cross-country comparability by aligning with the latest International Comparison Program results.^[26] Harmonization with the methodology of the Penn World Table (specifically the approach introduced in version 8) ensured compatibility in real GDP per capita calculations, including both output-side and expenditure-side approaches.^[26] This release also included revised historical estimates, with two alternative GDP per capita series to reflect varying assumptions on pre-modern growth patterns.^[26] In the 2020 version, updates brought the dataset to 2018, integrating new historical research to refine long-term growth trajectories across all covered countries.^[27] Particular improvements focused on Asian and African estimates, drawing on recent national accounts revisions and scholarly contributions to address gaps in pre-20th century data for these regions.^[27] The methodology partially reverted to Maddison's original extrapolation techniques for consistency, while maintaining the 1990 and 2011 PPP benchmarks where applicable.^[27] The 2023 version extended coverage to 2022, incorporating post-pandemic economic data for the 169 countries and aggregate regions.^[28] It integrated impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic using updated national accounts from sources such as the IMF and World Bank, ensuring continuity in GDP per capita series amid global disruptions.^[2] The database now comprises over 8,000 observations, including nearly 2,800 for the pre-1820 period, reflecting expanded historical depth.^[2] This release refined benchmark integrations, such as linking 2011 PPP data post-1990 with a new 1909 U.S./U.K. benchmark for earlier periods.^[2]

Applications and Impact

Use in Economic Research

The Maddison Project Database has played a pivotal role in economic research on the "Great Divergence," the historical divergence in economic performance between Western Europe and the rest of the world beginning around 1820. Scholars have drawn on its estimates of GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms to document how Western European countries, such as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, experienced accelerated growth rates during the Industrial Revolution, while regions like China and India saw stagnation or decline relative to global averages. For instance, the database reveals that by 1870, Western Europe's per capita income had nearly doubled from 1820 levels, contrasting sharply with minimal changes in Asia, enabling analyses of factors like institutional changes and technological adoption as drivers of this shift.^[29]^[1] In studies of global inequality, the database has been integrated into frameworks assessing long-term income distributions, notably by Branko Milanovic. Milanovic's research reconstructs global inequality trends from 1820 onward, using Maddison's GDP per capita data as benchmarks for mean country incomes, combined with distribution estimates to show how the Great Divergence contributed to rising interpersonal inequality worldwide until the mid-20th century. This approach highlights phases of inequality, such as the "first globalization" era (1820–1913), where colonial expansions amplified disparities.^[30] Similarly, Daron Acemoglu's work on long-run growth models incorporates the database to test institutional theories, linking differences in economic institutions to sustained growth divergences observed in the data from 1500 to the present.^[31] Organizations like Our World in Data have leveraged the database for visualizations of global GDP trends spanning 1820 to 2022, making historical economic patterns accessible to policymakers and the public. These visualizations illustrate exponential growth in global per capita GDP, from approximately $1,000 in 1820 to over $15,000 by 2022 (in 2011 international dollars), underscoring the database's utility in communicating long-term development trajectories. Recent applications as of 2025 include its use in climate-economic modeling to assess historical growth paths against sustainability goals.^[32]^[30]^[33] In policy contexts, the data informs World Bank analyses of historical development paths, as seen in reports on global inequality that reference Maddison estimates to contextualize modern challenges in low-income countries.

Criticisms and Methodological Debates

Scholars have raised significant concerns regarding the reliability of purchasing power parities (PPPs) when applied to pre-modern periods in the Maddison Project Database, arguing that extrapolating modern PPP benchmarks backward distorts historical income comparisons due to changes in relative prices over time.^[34] This method, central to Angus Maddison's original approach, assumes stable relative price structures across centuries, which critics contend leads to systematic biases in estimating economic growth rates. For instance, economic historian Robert C. Allen and colleagues highlight that such projections fail to account for varying consumption baskets and price levels in agrarian economies, potentially understating differences in living standards between regions like Europe and Asia before the Industrial Revolution.^[34] Stephen Broadberry, a prominent economic historian, has specifically critiqued the database's PPP applications for overestimating early modern European growth and underplaying the "little divergence" among European economies from the medieval to early modern periods. In his analyses, Broadberry uses alternative benchmarks based on wage and output data, suggesting that Maddison's estimates compress income variations across Northwestern and Southern Europe, thereby exaggerating overall continental progress and minimizing regional disparities before 1800. This debate underscores broader methodological tensions, as Broadberry's revisions imply higher initial income levels in leading economies like England, altering narratives of the timing and drivers of the Great Divergence. Accuracy issues with population data, particularly in colonial contexts, further complicate the database's GDP per capita estimates. In regions like India under British rule, pre-1871 population figures relied on incomplete administrative records and extrapolations, which historians argue often undercounted rural and nomadic populations due to limited census coverage and political motivations to minimize reported sizes for taxation purposes.^[24] This undercounting inflates per capita income metrics, skewing comparisons of colonial economic performance; for example, revisions incorporating more granular demographic studies suggest Maddison's early colonial Indian population estimates may have been too low, affecting assessments of deindustrialization and growth stagnation.^[35] The 2023 update to the Maddison Project Database has been praised for enhancing geographic inclusivity by incorporating data for 169 countries up to 2022, including better coverage of Africa and Asia through collaborative benchmarks.^[1] However, concerns persist over the use of interpolation techniques for recent periods, especially during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, where linear or growth-rate-based extrapolations between benchmark years may overlook sharp economic contractions and uneven recoveries.^[21] Critics note that such methods, while necessary for continuity, risk smoothing out volatility in output data for low-income countries with sparse reporting, potentially understating the pandemic's long-term impacts on global inequality trends.^[21] Comparative analyses with alternative historical datasets reveal notable variances, particularly for 19th-century Europe, where Paul Bairoch's estimates differ from Maddison's by 20-30% in aggregate GDP levels. Bairoch's benchmark comparisons, drawing on national accounts and trade data, yield lower per capita figures for Western Europe around 1850—approximately $1,200 in 1990 international dollars versus Maddison's $1,500—implying slower pre-unification growth and a later takeoff for industrialization in countries like Germany and Italy.^[36] These discrepancies arise from differing assumptions on sectoral outputs and price deflators, influencing debates on the role of protectionism and market integration in European economic convergence.^[36]

References

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Maddison Project Database 2023
### Summary of Maddison Project Database 2023
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The Maddison Project, led by Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden at Groningen University, carries on the task of estimating GDP and population figures ...
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Angus Maddison has labored fifty years to provide ever more comprehensive and distant estimates of economic growth. His earliest estimates of GDP began in ...
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lengthy). Appendix A presents data on 1820-1998. As in his 1995 book, Maddison explains. the way the data are converted into PPP values, permitting ...Missing: initial | Show results with:initial
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The Maddison Project, initiated in March 2010 by a group of close colleagues of. Angus Maddison, aims to develop an effective system of cooperation between ...
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**Summary of Maddison 2003 Dataset from Review:**
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Nov 1, 2024 · The Maddison Project Database provides information on comparative economic growth and income levels over the very long run. The 2018 version ...
[29]
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Sep 18, 2024 · The Maddison Project Database provides information on comparative economic growth and income levels over the very long run.
[30]
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