New Unity (Latvian: Jaunā Vienotība, JV) is a centre-right political alliance in Latvia, formed by the Unity party and four regional parties, which promotes patriotic, pro-European policies centered on competent governance, sustainable development, and national security.[1]Established in 2018 to contest parliamentary elections, the alliance traces its origins to the 2011 merger of centre-right parties into Unity, emphasizing responsible leadership and economic prosperity.[1][2]New Unity has led governing coalitions since 2019, with Krišjānis Kariņš as Prime Minister until 2023, followed by Evika Siliņa, who continues to head the government amid efforts to balance fiscal discipline and EU integration.[3][4]In the 2022 Saeima elections, it secured 26 seats with 18.2% of the vote, positioning it as a stabilizing force in a fragmented political landscape.[5]The party has produced prominent figures, including President Edgars Rinkēvičs elected in 2023, and maintains strong public support, ranking as Latvia's most popular political force as of October 2024.[1][6]While praised for steering Latvia through geopolitical challenges like the Ukraine conflict, it has faced scrutiny over internal scandals, including criminal probes into party funding and debates on social policies such as withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention.[7][8]
History
Formation of the Alliance
New Unity (Jaunā Vienotība) was formed in 2018 as an electoral alliance uniting the established Unity party (Vienotība) with four smaller regional parties: Kuldīgas Novadam, Tautas partija "Nākotne", "Valmierai un Vidzemei", and Jēkabpils Reģionālā partija.[9] This coalition emerged ahead of the October 2018 parliamentary elections to consolidate liberal-conservative and centrist political forces in Latvia's fragmented landscape, where an average of 17 parties had contested each Saeima election since 1991, contributing to chronic instability and low barriers to entry for new entrants.[10]Unity, the core component, originated from the merger of three centre-right parties—New Era (Jaunais laiks), Civic Union (Pilsoniskā savienība), and Society for Political Change (Sabiedrība Par Politisko Maiņu)—registered on August 6, 2011.[11] The 2018 alliance-building reflected empirical pressures from prior electoral cycles, including Unity's declining standalone performance, prompting a strategic pivot to broaden appeal beyond urban elites by incorporating regional voices while maintaining a pro-EU and pro-NATO orientation to counter populist, nationalist, and pro-Russian competitors like Harmony/Social Democratic Party.[12]The foundational rationale emphasized creating a unified bloc for a "national, European, and democratic Latvia," driven by the need to address governance challenges through coordinated centrist governance rather than ideological fragmentation.[9] Early programmatic statements highlighted economic liberalism—favoring market-oriented reforms and growth—and robust national security measures, including deepened NATO commitments, over divisive identity politics, aligning with the alliance's affiliation to the European People's Party.[9] This approach aimed to leverage Unity's governing experience under prior prime ministers like Valdis Dombrovskis and Laimdota Straujuma to stabilize Latvia's inchoate party system.[13]
Rise to Prominence Amid Geopolitical Shifts
Prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, New Unity polled in third place among Latvian parties, trailing behind the center-left Harmony party and the conservative National Alliance according to January 2022 surveys.[14] The invasion prompted a reevaluation of security priorities, elevating concerns over Russian aggression and leading to a surge in support for parties advocating robust NATO and EU alignment. In the October 1, 2022, Saeima elections, New Unity secured 19.0% of the vote, translating to 26 seats and positioning it as the largest party in parliament, a outcome directly linked to the geopolitical crisis.[15]Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, New Unity's leader, played a pivotal role through his government's swift implementation of EU sanctions against Russia, including bans on Russian energy imports and calls for halting tourist visas to Russians.[16]Latvia under Kariņš also boosted defense spending to meet NATO's 2% GDP target ahead of schedule and provided military aid to Ukraine exceeding 1% of its GDP, reinforcing New Unity's image as a defender of Baltic sovereignty against revanchist threats.[17] These actions contrasted with hesitancy among pro-Russian parties, eroding their support amid heightened fears of hybrid warfare and territorial revisionism.The invasion catalyzed a voter shift from political extremes toward centrist stability, with ethnic Latvian voters consolidating around New Unity as a bulwark promoting national identity and de-Russification policies, such as language reforms and media restrictions on Kremlinpropaganda.[18] This realignment marginalized Russian-speaking parties, which saw their vote shares plummet due to perceived sympathies or equivocation on the war, while centrists benefited from a "rally around the flag" effect prioritizing security over domestic grievances.[19]By October 2024, amid the war's continuation, New Unity maintained its lead in national polls, garnering top support in surveys of voter intentions, a trend attributed to sustained emphasis on NATO deterrence and EU integration as hedges against Russian influence.[20][6] This prominence underscores how geopolitical pressures have entrenched center-right governance focused on resilience through allied commitments and cultural cohesion.
Leadership Transitions Post-2022
In August 2023, Prime MinisterKrišjānis Kariņš of New Unity resigned following a breakdown in coalition negotiations over a proposed cabinet reshuffle, as junior partners including the National Alliance refused to endorse personnel changes aimed at injecting dynamism into the government.[21][22] This transition preserved the underlying coalition structure of New Unity, the Greens and Farmers Union, and the National Alliance, with Kariņš's party retaining leadership of the premiership. Evika Siliņa, New Unity's former Minister of Welfare, was nominated by her party and confirmed as prime minister by the Saeima on September 15, 2023, securing a 53-39 vote and forming a continuity cabinet focused on defense enhancements amid regional security concerns.[23][24]Subsequent shifts in 2024 and 2025 underscored New Unity's strategy of leveraging diplomatic and administrative expertise to bolster governance stability. Kariņš, who had moved to the Foreign Ministry post-premiership, resigned that role on March 28, 2024, amid scrutiny over the use of state funds for private flights, prompting Baiba Braže—a seasoned diplomat and former ambassador-at-large—to assume the position on April 19, 2024, enhancing the party's foreign policy credentials in a NATO-aligned context.[25][26] In June 2025, New Unity nominated MP Raimonds Čudars, a former mayor of Salaspils with prior ministerial experience in climate and energy, for the vacant Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development; he was approved by the Saeima on June 19, 2025, signaling internal prioritization of local governance veterans for regional development roles.[27][28]These transitions demonstrated New Unity's resilience, with no significant erosion in parliamentary support or public polling dips attributable to the changes, as the party sustained its coalition dominance through selections emphasizing proven administrative competence over individual prominence.[29] The shifts coincided with sustained emphasis on security-oriented appointments, reflecting causal factors like geopolitical pressures rather than domestic partisan fractures, thereby maintaining internal cohesion without necessitating broader realignments.[3]
Ideology and Policy Positions
Economic Framework
New Unity espouses a pro-market economic framework rooted in fiscal conservatism, emphasizing liberalization to overcome Latvia's post-Soviet economic legacies of low productivity growth and overreliance on external demand. The party's positions prioritize private sector dynamism through reduced state intervention, arguing that empirical evidence from Latvia's post-2008 recovery—where internal devaluation and fiscal consolidation yielded average annual GDP growth exceeding 4% from 2011 to 2019—demonstrates the efficacy of such approaches in restoring competitiveness without currency devaluation.[30]Central to this vision are policies advocating deregulation to lessen bureaucratic burdens on businesses and incentives for entrepreneurship, including support for a banking union and capital markets union to channel private investment into innovation and job creation. New Unity rejects broad welfare expansions, favoring targeted incentives that encourage private-led innovation over redistributive state measures, which the party views as perpetuating dependency in critiques of interventionist models prevalent in some European social democracies. The alliance also promotes efficient absorption of the €10 billion in EU cohesion funds allocated to Latvia for 2021–2027, directing them toward digital and green transformations to integrate into global value chains and sustain GDP acceleration.[31]On energy, New Unity links economic resilience to rapid diversification from Russian imports, endorsing a full EU ban on Russian gas and oil post-2022 to mitigate supply shocks and bolster security, as evidenced by the party's backing of legislative reports advancing this transition. This stance aligns with Latvia's broader synchronization to the European grid in February 2025, which severed Soviet-era ties and reduced vulnerability to geopolitical leverage, thereby supporting stable industrial output and long-term growth.[32][33]
Foreign Policy and Security Stance
New Unity espouses an Atlanticist foreign policy centered on reinforcing NATO and EU solidarity as primary deterrents to Russian expansionism, drawing from Latvia's history of Soviet occupation to underscore the perils of inadequate defense postures. The alliance has consistently advocated for Latvia's role in hosting NATO's enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup in Rīga, led by Canada and comprising multinational troops that expanded under Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš's New Unity-led government from a battalion to a brigade-sized force by 2024, enhancing deterrence on the eastern flank.[34][35]In response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, New Unity has championed extensive military and financial assistance, including Latvia's contributions to EU-led arms deliveries and the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's defense, with Prime MinisterEvika Siliņa emphasizing in 2025 that such measures demonstrate "unwavering support" and reject appeasement narratives that overlook Moscow's revanchist patterns.[36][37] The party backs comprehensive EU sanctions packages against Russia and Belarus—encompassing 19 rounds by October 2025—targeting energy exports, financial systems, and dual-use goods, while critiquing softer diplomatic approaches as empirically flawed given Russia's violations of post-Cold War accords and Baltic vulnerabilities during interwar and postwar eras.[38]On security, New Unity pushes for defense expenditures exceeding NATO's 2% GDP threshold, with Siliņa's administration targeting 4.35% in 2025 and aspiring to 5% by 2026 to fund brigade modernization, air defense acquisitions, and regional interoperability exercises like those hosted in Rīga.[39] This hardline realism prevails over minor internal discussions on fiscal trade-offs, reflecting a broad consensus that deepened transatlantic ties—evident in Kariņš's 2023 calls for augmented NATO deployments and Siliņa's 2025 advocacy for U.S.-EU alignment—outweigh short-term costs amid persistent hybrid threats from Russia.[40][41]
National Identity and Integration Policies
New Unity advocates for policies that prioritize the Latvian language as the cornerstone of national cohesion, enforcing its exclusive use in public administration, education, and media to counteract historical Russification and persistent ethnic segregation. Under governments led by New Unity figures like Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš from 2019 to 2023, Latvia accelerated the transition to Latvian-only instruction in all schools, culminating in full implementation by September 1, 2025, following the 2018 Education Law amendments that mandated at least 50% Latvian content by 2021 and 100% thereafter.[42] This reform addressed empirical evidence of integration shortfalls, where Russian-language schooling perpetuated low proficiency rates—only 54% of ethnic Russians reported fluent Latvian in 2011 censuses, correlating with higher unemployment (12.5% vs. 7.8% for Latvians) and reduced civic loyalty, as polls post-2014 Crimeaannexation showed 20-30% of Russian-speakers sympathizing with Russian narratives over Baltic sovereignty.[43][44]These measures link directly to security imperatives, with New Unity justifying stringent enforcement via data on divided societies' vulnerabilities; for instance, pre-reform laxity fostered parallel Russian-language media ecosystems that amplified Kremlin propaganda, evidenced by 2022 surveys where 15-25% of Latvian Russian-speakers expressed neutrality or support for Russia's Ukraine invasion, undermining social trust metrics already strained by a 40% naturalization rate among eligible non-citizens since 1991.[45][46] Complementary citizenship adjustments, including automatic Latvian citizenship for children born to non-citizens after January 1, 2020, unless parents opt out, aim to erode the non-citizen passport legacy of Soviet-era residents (affecting ~10% of the population as of 2022), while naturalization mandates Latvian language exams (A2-B1 levels) to ensure assimilation over perpetual minority status.[47] Such policies empirically bolstered cohesion, as evidenced by declining pro-Russian party vote shares from 23% in 2018 to under 5% in 2022, reducing Moscow's influence amid heightened hybrid threats.[48]On demographics, New Unity supports targeted cultural preservation to arrest ethnic Latvian decline, where Latvians comprise 62.7% of the population (down from 52% in 1989) amid a total fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman in 2023, far below replacement levels, with ethnic Latvians aging faster (average age 40.5 vs. 36.8 for minorities).[49][48] Initiatives include promoting Latvian-language family incentives and heritage education to counter multicultural models unsubstantiated in Baltic contexts, where prior tolerance of ethnic enclaves yielded persistent segregation—Russian-speakers' intermarriage rates lag at 10-15% and residential concentration exceeds 70% in urban ghettos, fostering irredentist sentiments rather than fusion.[50][51] Critics from pro-Russian factions, such as the now-banned Harmony party, decry these as discriminatory, citing UN concerns over minority language curtailment potentially alienating 25% of residents, yet data refute equivalence by showing policy-driven proficiency gains (Latvian usage in Russian homes rose 15% from 2011-2021) without commensurate violence spikes, unlike lax regimes' tolerance of fifth-column risks.[52][53] New Unity maintains that causal realism demands prioritizing empirical national resilience over ideologically driven pluralism, which faltered in sustaining loyalty during geopolitical stress.[54]
Social and Cultural Positions
New Unity promotes traditional family structures as essential for societal cohesion, drawing on empirical evidence that children raised in stable, two-parent households experience lower socioemotional difficulties and greater long-term stability compared to those in disrupted family environments.[55][56] This stance aligns with causal factors such as consistent parental investment and reduced instability, which correlate with decreased juvenile delinquency and improved mental health outcomes across longitudinal studies.[57] The party prioritizes policies reinforcing these structures over interventions rooted in progressive ideologies lacking comparable evidential support for broad societal benefits.In education, New Unity opposes the integration of gender ideology into curricula, emphasizing biological realities and evidence-based instruction over theoretical constructs. Education and Science Minister Dace Melbārde, a New Unity member, stated on October 7, 2025, that the Ministry does not promote or popularize gender ideology, countering claims of ideological infiltration by clarifying that academic research does not equate to endorsement.[58][59] This position reflects skepticism toward unproven social theories, favoring curricula that prioritize measurable skills and traditional values to foster resilience amid Latvia's demographic challenges.Regarding violence prevention, New Unity has engaged in 2025 parliamentary debates critiquing the Istanbul Convention for prioritizing ideological definitions of gender over practical, domestically tailored measures. The Saeima, under a New Unity-led coalition, approved a national declaration on October 16, 2025, as an alternative framework focused on eradicating violence through evidence-driven policies, bypassing the convention's contested provisions that critics argue embed non-empirical gender constructs without demonstrable reductions in domestic violence rates.[60] Latvia's approach underscores causal realism, favoring sovereignty in addressing root causes like family breakdown—linked empirically to higher violence incidence—over international norms influenced by advocacy-driven interpretations.[55] Progressive critics, including left-leaning outlets, have characterized these views as anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, yet New Unity has previously advocated adding sexual orientation protections to constitutional anti-discrimination clauses, indicating a distinction between individual rights and institutionalizing unverified ideologies.[61] Verifiable outcomes under conservative frameworks, such as Latvia's relatively stable family metrics correlating with lower instability-driven violence compared to high-divorce peers, inform this preference.[62]
Organizational Structure
Core Member Parties
New Unity's core consists of the national party Unity (Vienotība), a liberal-conservative organization founded in 2011 through the merger of New Era, Civic Union, and Society for Political Change, serving as the alliance's dominant element.[11] Complementing Unity are four regional parties: Kuldīgas Novadam, focused on the Kuldīga municipality in western Latvia; Tukuma un Apkārtnes Partija (TPN), representing Tukums and surrounding areas in central Latvia; Valmierai un Vidzemei, centered on Valmiera and the Vidzeme region in northern Latvia; and Jēkabpils Reģionālā Partija, operating in the Jēkabpils area in eastern Latvia.[9] These parties unite under shared centre-right values, including support for market-oriented economics and European integration.[54]The regional parties contribute localized expertise and grassroots networks, enabling the alliance to maintain influence in non-urban areas such as Kurzeme, Zemgale, Vidzeme, and Selonia, where Unity's national profile may have less penetration.[9] This composition fosters broader geographic appeal, helping to address Latvia's historical urban-rural political divides by incorporating regional priorities into the alliance's platform while preserving cohesion through Unity's overarching leadership.[13] Associate members provide supplementary policy input on sector-specific issues, reinforcing internal unity without diluting core decision-making.[9]
Leadership and Internal Governance
Krišjānis Kariņš served as a foundational leader of New Unity, leading the alliance through its early consolidation and acting as Prime Minister of Latvia from December 2019 to September 2023, during which he navigated the country through the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.[63] His tenure emphasized fiscal discipline and NATO alignment, establishing the party's reputation for pragmatic centre-right governance. Evika Siliņa, previously Minister of Welfare, succeeded Kariņš as Prime Minister on September 15, 2023, maintaining continuity in leadership while focusing on domestic economic recovery and security enhancements.[64]In April 2024, New Unity nominated diplomat Baiba Braže for Minister of Foreign Affairs, highlighting the party's preference for expertise-driven appointments; Braže, previously a key advisor in Kariņš's administration, was confirmed by the Saeima on April 19, 2024, bolstering the alliance's foreign policy credentials amid ongoing geopolitical tensions with Russia.[65][64] This merit-focused selection process, prioritizing professional qualifications over partisan loyalty, underscores New Unity's internal approach to sustaining its centre-right orientation, as Braže initially entered without formal party affiliation before considerations of joining.[66]Internal governance relies on the New Unity parliamentary group in the Saeima, which forms the core decision-making body and holds regular meetings to foster consensus on legislative positions and coalition negotiations.[67] These sessions emphasize accountability through empirical evaluation of policy outcomes, contrasting with some coalition partners' associations with entrenched agricultural or regional interests that have faced scrutiny for oligarchic influences. The structure favors structured deliberation over quotas, ensuring selections align with demonstrated competence in administration and international relations to preserve ideological coherence.[68]
Electoral Performance
Saeima Parliamentary Elections
In the 2018 Saeima elections on October 6, the New Unity alliance, comprising Unity and several regional parties formed earlier that year, secured 8 seats in the 100-member parliament, reflecting a baseline support amid competition from populist and pro-Russian lists.[69] This outcome built on Unity's prior coalition experience but highlighted challenges in consolidating centrist voters in a fragmented system where no party exceeded 20% vote share. Voter turnout stood at 54.6%, with New Unity's performance signaling potential for growth among pro-EU demographics despite internal party divisions.[70]The 2022 Saeima elections on October 1 represented a pivotal advance, as New Unity captured 199,434 votes (18.97% of the total), translating to 26 seats and positioning it as the leading bloc.[71] This tripling of seats from 2018 correlated with a surge in support for Atlanticist parties following Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which amplified demands for robust anti-Russian policies and NATO alignment; analysts noted New Unity's emphasis on security as a key differentiator from rivals like the pro-Russian Harmony party, which saw its seats halved.[15][72] Turnout rose to approximately 59%, potentially driven by geopolitical urgency, though some observers attributed shifts to urban-rural divides favoring security-focused lists in Latvian-ethnic areas.[73]
Post-2022, New Unity has sustained leading poll positions, with 8.8% support in an October 2024 survey—topping fragmented fields where no party consistently surpasses 15%—indicating resilience tied to defense policy successes, such as advocating Latvia's 3% GDP military spending target amid Baltic vulnerabilities.[6][20] This trend underscores a voter preference for continuity in security stances over economic critiques, even as overall participation remains low in polls simulating Saeima contests.[5]
European Parliament Elections
In the 2019 European Parliament elections, held on 25 May, New Unity emerged as the leading party with 26.24% of the vote, securing two of Latvia's eight seats and affiliating its elected MEPs with the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) group.[74] This result reflected the party's strong pro-EU orientation, with its MEPs contributing to EPP initiatives on defence and transatlantic cooperation amid heightened regional security concerns following Russia's annexation of Crimea.[75]Building on this foundation, New Unity submitted its candidate list for the 2024 European Parliament elections to Latvia's Central Election Commission on 5 February 2024, featuring prominent figures including former European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis as the lead candidate.[76] In the elections conducted on 8 June 2024, the party garnered 25.7% of the vote, again winning two seats and maintaining its EPP affiliation.[77] The elected representatives, Inese Vaidere and Sandra Kalniete (following Dombrovskis's transition to the European Commission), have prioritized EPP efforts to bolster EU-NATO synergies, focusing on eastern flank defence enhancements and sanctions enforcement against Russia, given Latvia's exposure to hybrid threats.[78][79]With Latvia's modest delegation of eight MEPs, New Unity's consistent pair of seats amplifies their influence in pro-EU parliamentary caucuses, where they advocate pragmatic integration centred on securityrealism over expansive federalism, viewing the latter—often advanced by left-leaning groups—as inadequately responsive to Balticsovereignty and deterrence needs.[80] This stance aligns with empirical priorities in the EPP, such as rapid capability-building under the European Defence Fund, while critiquing detached ideological expansions that dilute national vetoes on core foreign policy.[31]
Municipal and Regional Elections
In the 2025 Latvian municipal elections held on June 7, New Unity participated across multiple municipalities, emphasizing pragmatic local governance and infrastructure improvements as part of its campaignplatform. The elections occurred amid administrative challenges, including delays in ballot processing despite a voter turnout of 47%, the highest in recent cycles for non-national contests. New Unity's strong financial investment in campaigning—among the highest at over €160,000 allocated nationwide—underscored its commitment to grassroots mobilization, particularly in urban areas where it leveraged its centre-right appeal to secure representation.[81][82]A key demonstration of New Unity's coalition pragmatism came in Riga, Latvia's largest municipality and economic hub, where it joined a governing alliance with the Progressives, National Alliance, and United List on June 19, controlling 34 of 60 council seats. This partnership excluded populist gains by Latvia First, which led the vote with 18.17% but was sidelined to prevent ideological dominance by anti-establishment forces. The coalition formalized its collaboration through a signed action plan outlining priorities such as modernizing governance by reducing bureaucracy, upgrading streets, bridges, and public spaces, enhancing mobility options, and fostering a "safe and crisis-ready" city with sustainable growth. These measures reflect New Unity's focus on practical, evidence-based local reforms amid urban challenges like infrastructure decay and population outflows.[83][84]New Unity's urban performance highlighted its strength in densely populated areas, where it complemented national-level policies with localized appeals to pro-business and pro-integration voters, contrasting with rural strongholds of agrarian or populist parties. While exact nationwide vote shares varied by municipality, the party's role in Riga's coalition evidenced effective adaptation to fragmented electorates, enabling influence over budgets exceeding €1 billion annually for the capital. However, the broad ideological spectrum—spanning progressive social policies from coalition partners to conservative stances on national identity—has posed coordination hurdles, as evidenced by post-election negotiations without ultimatums but requiring compromises on issues like public spending efficiency.[85][86]In smaller regional municipalities, New Unity contributed to multi-party administrations focused on service delivery, though gains were modest compared to national incumbency advantages. This local embedding has bolstered the alliance's resilience against national volatility, with early governance outputs like infrastructure tenders signaling tangible progress, albeit tempered by criticisms of diluted policy coherence in heterogeneous coalitions. Overall, these elections reinforced New Unity's strategy of incremental expansion through flexible alliances, prioritizing administrative competence over ideological purity in addressing Latvia's decentralized governance needs.[87]
Governance and Impact
Coalition Formations and Cabinets
The second Kariņš cabinet, established on December 14, 2022, united New Unity with the National Alliance and the United List, garnering 54 votes in the Saeima to form a majority government after protracted post-election talks exceeding two months.[88][72] This arrangement integrated center-right leadership with conservative nationalists and regional moderates, fostering initial stability by accommodating diverse stakeholder demands in a fragmented parliament.[88]Kariņš resigned as prime minister on August 14, 2023, citing irreconcilable tensions with coalition partners, particularly over internal disputes that eroded trust.[89] New Unity swiftly pivoted by nominating Evika Siliņa, leading to the formation of her cabinet on September 15, 2023, backed by 53 Saeima votes from a reconfigured alliance comprising New Unity, the agrarian Union of Greens and Farmers, and the social-democratic Progressives.[3][90] Despite the narrower margin and inclusion of ideologically divergent partners—spanning pro-business centrists, rural conservatives, and left-leaning reformers—the transition preserved the ruling bloc's continuity, highlighting New Unity's brokerage role in averting collapse.[91]By mid-2025, the Siliņa government managed vacancies through targeted appointments, such as the Saeima's approval of New Unity MP Raimonds Čudars as Minister for Smart Administration and Regional Development on June 19, which reinforced administrative cohesion amid security imperatives like border fortifications.[27] Earlier, on March 6, 2025, parliament endorsed three additional ministers in a reshuffle, addressing personnel gaps without disrupting the coalition's slim hold.[92] These maneuvers underscored a pattern of incremental adjustments prioritizing operational resilience over wholesale reconfiguration.New Unity's coalitions have empirically endured by strategically allying with conservative and agrarian groups—such as the National Alliance and Union of Greens and Farmers—while marginalizing populist extremes on both flanks, enabling power retention through issue-specific compromises rather than uniform ideology.[72] This approach, evident in the shift from the 2022 diverse pact to the 2023 tripartite setup, has mitigated volatility in Latvia's multiparty system, where no single bloc dominates, by leveraging New Unity's centrist pivot to aggregate moderate votes and sustain governance amid external pressures like regional security threats.[3]
Key Policy Achievements
Under New Unity-led coalitions, Latvia committed to elevating defense spending to at least 4% of GDP in 2026, with Prime Minister Evika Siliņa proposing 4.35% for 2025 and progression toward 5% thereafter, surpassing NATO's 2% benchmark and positioning Latvia among top spenders.[39][93] This included approval of a 2025defensebudget exceeding €1.559 billion, funding NATO's enhanced forward presence, including the Canadian-led multinational brigade at Ādaži with approximately 2,200 troops.[94][95] Such measures, driven by New Unity's advocacy for deterrence amid Russian aggression, correlated with sustained public support for pro-NATO policies, as evidenced by the party's strong performance in 2024 European Parliament elections favoring robust defense.[96]On sanctions enforcement, New Unity governments prioritized rigorous implementation of EU measures against Russia, leading to Latvia's State Security Service initiating multiple prosecutions for breaches, including cases involving project management services and asset management for sanctioned entities in 2025.[97][98]Latvia also adopted national sanctions regulations in September 2025 targeting individuals and firms linked to Russia's war in Ukraine, complementing 18 EU packages and contributing to broader economic pressure on Moscow through restricted access to energy and financial sectors.[99][100]Economically, post-2022 Russian invasion policies under New Unity emphasized diversification away from Russian dependencies, aiding stabilization; Latvia ranked second globally in the 2023 International Tax Competitiveness Index, reflecting reforms in fiscal policy that enhanced business environment scores.[101] GDP contracted modestly by 0.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025 but rebounded to 1.7% growth in Q2, with quarter-on-quarter expansion at 0.4%, driven by investment and exports amid falling inflation.[102][103] Forecasts project 1.1% annual growth for 2025, outperforming prior recessionary trends through coalition-shared efforts but anchored in New Unity's pro-market leadership.[104] While external factors influenced outcomes, the government's firm stance on sanctions facilitated energy market decoupling, mitigating deeper shocks compared to pre-2022 alternatives.[99]
Criticisms of Governance Effectiveness
Critics of New Unity's governance have highlighted the inherent fragility of its coalitions, which have frequently led to internal disputes and policy gridlock. In 2025, tensions escalated between New Unity-led Prime Minister Evika Siliņa's government and coalition partner the Greens and Farmers' Union (ZZS) over ZZS's vote to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention, prompting Siliņa to accuse ZZS of violating the coalition agreement and threatening a government "restart."[105][106] These conflicts reflect broader patterns of coalition instability, with government formations often marked by competing interests among parties, resulting in delayed implementation of reforms in areas like fiscal discipline and social services.[48][101]Public dissatisfaction with this instability is evident in polling data, where only 27.9% of Latvians supported the continuation of Siliņa's coalition in October 2025, with a majority favoring its dissolution amid perceptions of ineffective leadership.[107] Political analysts have noted that New Unity bears significant risk from such breakdowns, as internal sniping hampers decisive action on structural issues like administrative efficiency.[108]Despite New Unity's pro-market rhetoric emphasizing economic liberalization, Latvia's income inequality has persisted at elevated levels, with the Gini coefficient at 34.2% in 2023—the third highest in the European Union—indicating that wealthier households benefited more from income growth than lower-income groups.[109] Opponents, including left-leaning commentators, argue this reflects governance shortcomings in redistributive policies, as inequality metrics have hovered around 34-35% for years under centre-right administrations.[48] Right-leaning defenders counter that Latvia's market-oriented approach yields superior outcomes to socialist alternatives, though empirical comparisons show Latvia's Gini exceeding the EU average and peers like Estonia.[110]Pro-Russian voices and opposition figures have criticized New Unity's push for heightened defense spending—reaching over 2.5% of GDP—as excessive militarization that diverts funds from social welfare and risks escalation with Russia.[111] New Unity maintains this prioritization is a security imperative given Russia's invasion of Ukraine and hybrid threats, including airspace violations, but detractors contend it exacerbates domestic fiscal strains without commensurate threat mitigation.[112][113] The Latvian Fiscal Discipline Council has faulted successive governments, including those involving New Unity, for failing to balance such expenditures with sustainable surpluses.[48]
Controversies and Debates
Internal Coalition Tensions
In February 2025, Prime MinisterEvika Siliņa of New Unity orchestrated a cabinet reshuffle, replacing three ministers to mitigate rising frictions among the coalition partners—New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS), and the Progressives—following disputes over resource allocation and policy priorities.[114] This move aimed to realign the government's agenda amid reports of internal discord, particularly between ministries handling economic and regional development portfolios.[115]Tensions escalated in September 2025 during budget negotiations, with ZZS issuing ultimatums on preserving small rural schools, leading to concessions from the coalition to avoid collapse; this highlighted frictions over ZZS's perceived ties to oligarchic interests, including influence from convicted figure Aivars Lembergs, despite New Unity's historical reservations about such partnerships.[116] By early October, cabinet meetings devolved into public sniping among ministers, including clashes involving the Education Ministry over funding reallocations that pitted urban-centric reforms against rural preservation demands.[58][105]These incidents, while amplified by media coverage of potential "rebellions" and resets, resulted in minimal disruptions to governance continuity, as pragmatic leadership under Siliņa deferred major disagreements post-budget adoption and reaffirmed the coalition's commitment to operate through the parliamentary term.[29] The episodes underscored risks from the coalition's ideological diversity—spanning center-right, agrarian-conservative, and progressive elements—but empirical outcomes showed resolutions via compromise rather than structural breakdown.[105]
Ideological Conflicts on Social Issues
New Unity has navigated ideological tensions on social issues, particularly in balancing conservative reservations against progressive international norms within coalition dynamics. In October 2025, Education and Science Minister Dace Melbārde, affiliated with the party, explicitly stated that the ministry does not promote "gender ideology" in educational programs, countering assertions from welfare officials and underscoring a preference for curricula focused on empirical child development over contested identity frameworks.[59] This position reflects ongoing debates, where studies highlight risks to youth mental health and identity formation from school-based gender ideology exposure, including elevated rates of confusion, anxiety, and long-term regret among minors encouraged to affirm non-biological identities without rigorous evidence of benefits.[117][118]A significant flashpoint emerged over the Istanbul Convention on preventing violence against women and domestic violence, from which Latvia considered withdrawal in 2025 amid coalition pressures. New Unity deputies argued against exit, contending that it would impair international credibility and anti-violence initiatives, despite Latvia's domestic laws already yielding relatively low intimate partner violence prevalence—around 27% lifetime exposure for women, comparable to global averages but with effective national enforcement mechanisms.[8][119] Opponents, including partners like the Union of Greens and Farmers, framed ratification as an imposition of gender ideology that diverts from causal factors like perpetrator accountability, with analyses of the convention's implementation showing inconsistent reductions in violence rates across signatories and minimal empirical gains beyond pre-existing policies.[120][121] Proponents cite the treaty's comprehensive protections, yet post-ratification data from countries like Turkey indicate no sustained decline in femicides and potential backlash from ideologically charged provisions.[122]In family policy, New Unity has prioritized stability through targeted supports like child benefits and parental leave, avoiding redefinitions of family structures that could undermine traditional units linked to improved child welfare outcomes, such as lower delinquency and higher educational attainment.[123] This approach has provoked criticism from progressive factions for perceived backwardness, particularly amid refusals to endorse stricter abortion counseling mandates or constitutional family definitions emphasizing biological complementarity, yet aligns with evidence favoring environments reinforcing parental authority and binary sex norms for developmental health.[124][125] Such stances highlight New Unity's centrist pivot from earlier conservatism, fostering intra-coalition friction while privileging data-driven realism over expansive ideological shifts.