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Open interest

Open interest is the total number of outstanding futures or options contracts that have not yet been closed, exercised, delivered, or expired at the end of a , representing the aggregate of all open long and short positions in the market. This metric applies to markets, where it equals the number of contracts held by market participants, with every long position matched by a corresponding short position. Open interest is calculated by exchanges and clearing houses daily: it increases by one contract when a new buyer and new seller enter the market to open positions, remains unchanged when an existing long and existing short close their positions against each other, and decreases by one contract when an existing long and existing short both close without a new opening . For options, open interest includes both calls and puts across various strikes and expirations, and in combined futures-options reports, option positions are converted to futures-equivalent positions using factors to assess overall . Gross open interest sums all positions across accounts, while net open interest nets longs and shorts per participant before aggregation, providing insights into total versus clearing house risk. In financial markets, open interest serves as a key indicator of , trader commitment, and trend strength: rising open interest alongside price movements suggests sustained directional interest and potential trend continuation, while declining open interest may signal weakening or unwinding. It is distinct from trading , which measures daily transactions, as open interest reflects the standing backlog of contracts and helps traders assess market participation levels. Regulatory bodies like the U.S. (CFTC) publish weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports breaking down open interest by trader categories—such as commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables—to reveal positioning and potential influences on prices. High open interest in major products, including futures like and Treasuries, underscores its role in evaluating overall activity and risk.

Fundamentals

Definition

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures or options s held by market participants at the end of a that have not yet been closed, exercised, or expired. This provides a snapshot of the contracts actively in play within markets, reflecting the level of ongoing commitment from buyers and sellers. Each such represents an between two parties—one taking a long (betting on increase) and the other a short (betting on decrease)—but open interest tallies each contract only once, irrespective of the position type. Open interest is a key measure in derivatives trading, where futures and options serve as financial instruments deriving value from underlying assets like commodities, currencies, or indices. Unlike trading volume, which counts the number of contracts exchanged during a session, open interest focuses solely on unsettled positions carried forward. The concept emerged alongside the growth of organized futures exchanges in the , such as the , founded in 1848 and introducing standardized futures contracts in 1865. Exchanges began systematically tracking open interest in the late through clearing processes, while regulatory oversight of large trader positions started in the early with the Grain Futures Administration's reporting system established in 1923, which required daily position reports to monitor market activity. This laid the foundation for modern oversight, evolving into monthly Commitments of Traders reports by 1962.

Relation to Trading Volume

Trading volume represents the total number of futures or options contracts that are bought and sold during a specific period, such as a , with each transaction counted once regardless of whether it initiates a new position or closes an existing one. In contrast, open interest measures the total number of outstanding contracts that have not yet been settled, exercised, or closed at the end of the , serving as a of the market's unsettled positions rather than the of activity. While trading volume captures the daily influx of market activity, open interest reflects the cumulative stock of positions; a single trade can affect open interest by increasing it (if both parties are opening new positions), decreasing it (if both are closing existing positions), or leaving it unchanged (if one party is closing while the other is opening). The following table illustrates common trade scenarios and their impacts on both metrics, assuming a single trade for simplicity:
ScenarioDescriptionImpact on Impact on Open Interest
New positions openedA new buyer and a new seller enter the market, creating a fresh .+1+1
Positions closedAn existing long holder sells to an existing short holder, offsetting both positions.+1-1
Position transferAn existing long holder sells to a new short holder (or vice versa), closing one position while opening another.+1Unchanged
Exchanges such as CME Group report both trading volume and open interest daily, typically after the settlement period, providing traders with complementary data to gauge market liquidity and participation levels.

Calculation

Daily Updates

Open interest begins at zero upon the inception of a derivatives contract and is subsequently tallied by clearinghouses, such as those operated by CME Group, at the conclusion of each trading session to reflect the net addition or reduction in outstanding positions. This daily reconciliation ensures that open interest accurately represents the total number of unsettled contracts held by market participants. The rules governing changes in open interest are straightforward: it increases by one unit for each new long-short pair established through opening s, decreases by one unit for each offsetting that closes existing s, and remains unchanged for position transfers between existing holders without or creation of new s. For instance, if Trader A sells a to Trader B, who is opening a new , open interest rises by one; conversely, if Trader B later sells back to Trader A to close the , it falls by one. To illustrate these mechanics, consider the net impact of daily trading activity on open interest, which differs from trading that simply counts all transactions executed that day. The following summarizes common scenarios:
ScenarioTrades Executed ImpactOpen Interest Impact
New positions opened (e.g., 100 contracts)100 opening trades+100+100
Positions closed (e.g., 50 contracts)50 closing trades+50-50
Position transfers (e.g., 20 contracts)20 transfer trades+200
Mixed day (100 opened, 50 closed)150 trades total+150+50
In the mixed-day example, open interest rises by 50 despite higher , highlighting the net effect of creations minus closures. For most exchanges, open interest is updated and published daily following the close of trading, with intraday estimates being uncommon due to the need for complete data; it is reset to zero at contract expiration when all positions are settled or rolled over. The U.S. further aggregates this data into weekly reports released every Friday.

Settlement Process

The settlement of open interest in futures and options s occurs at contract maturity, where all outstanding positions must be resolved to ensure market integrity and finality. This process primarily involves two types: physical delivery and cash . In physical delivery, the seller fulfills the contract by ring the underlying asset to the buyer, as seen in commodities like crude oil futures on the CME, where barrels of oil are delivered to designated locations. Conversely, cash resolves positions financially without asset , based on the difference between the contract and a final settlement derived from , such as the index value for stock index futures. Open interest plays a central role in this resolution, representing the total number of unsettled contracts that must be closed out by expiration. Positions can be offset through opposing trades before the close, exercised (for options), or settled via delivery or cash payment; upon completion, open interest for the expiring contract falls to zero as no positions remain outstanding. This ensures all obligations are met, preventing carryover into subsequent periods. The procedures are overseen by clearing organizations acting as central counterparties to guarantee performance. For futures, CME Clearing manages settlement, determining final prices and handling deliveries or cash adjustments. For options, the (OCC) processes exercises and assignments, notifying parties and facilitating share or cash transfers. Key timelines include the last trading day, the final opportunity to trade or offset positions, and the first notice day, when sellers in physical delivery contracts can issue delivery notices to initiate the process. A historical example illustrating physical delivery and process evolution is the 1987 CME live futures settlement. Under the contract's terms, issued three-day notices via a system (introduced in 1983 to reduce redeliveries), leading to delivery of approximately 40,000 pounds of fed steers at approved yards like Omaha or Sioux City; this highlighted ongoing challenges with grading and location, spurring debates on potential shifts toward cash settlement for better convergence.

Market Implications

Trend Confirmation

In futures and options markets, changes in open interest are analyzed alongside price movements to confirm the strength and sustainability of trends. When prices are rising and open interest is simultaneously increasing, this pattern signals strong bullish confirmation, reflecting new buying interest from market participants entering long positions and supporting a sustained uptrend. Conversely, falling prices accompanied by rising open interest indicate bearish confirmation, as the increase in open positions suggests new short selling activity that reinforces the downtrend through heightened selling pressure. In neutral or weaker scenarios, rising prices paired with stable or declining open interest imply a lack of in the uptrend, often due to short-covering by existing holders rather than fresh capital inflows, which may signal impending exhaustion. Similarly, falling prices with stable or declining open interest point to potential or closures, such as long unwinding, rather than committed new selling, reducing the downtrend's momentum. Empirical studies from the onward have validated open interest's role as a trend confirmer, particularly when weighted against trading , demonstrating its ability to predict persistent movements and economic activity signals in futures markets. For instance, Bessembinder and Seguin (1992) analyzed U.S. futures data, including commodities traded on exchanges like NYMEX, and found that unanticipated increases in open interest correlate with elevated , beyond what alone explains. More recent work by and Yogo (2012) extends this to commodity futures, showing open interest as a superior predictor of asset directions compared to , with from diverse markets confirming its utility in validating bullish and bearish trends.

Divergence Signals

Divergences between changes in open interest and price movements serve as indicators of potential trend reversals or weakening in futures and options markets. In a bullish divergence, falling prices accompanied by decreasing open interest suggest that short positions are being covered, reducing selling pressure and hinting at a possible . This pattern implies that the downward momentum is losing steam as fewer new short contracts are opened, potentially signaling an upcoming reversal to the upside. Conversely, a bearish occurs when prices are rising but open interest is declining, indicating that long positions are being liquidated through profit-taking rather than new buying interest emerging. This lack of fresh capital inflow points to trend exhaustion, where the uptrend may soon falter as participants exit rather than reinforce the rally. These divergence signals gain greater reliability when integrated with declining trading volume, as the combined reduction in both open interest and volume underscores diminishing participation and conviction in the prevailing price direction. Unlike trend confirmation, where open interest rises in tandem with price to validate , divergences highlight opposing dynamics that may foreshadow shifts. However, open interest divergences are not reliably predictive on their own and must be corroborated with other or indicators to mitigate false signals. False positives are particularly common in low-liquidity markets, where thin trading can amplify distortions in open interest data and lead to misleading interpretations. The CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, which aggregate trader positions representing only 70-90% of total open interest, further underscore these limitations by providing incomplete coverage that can obscure true market dynamics in less active segments.

Applications

In Futures Markets

In futures markets, open interest plays a crucial role in assessing the balance between speculative and hedging activities among participants. Traders and analysts use it to gauge whether increased trading reflects new positions driven by or hedging needs, as higher open interest often correlates with greater . This metric helps distinguish commercial hedgers, who use futures to mitigate price risks in underlying commodities, from non-commercial speculators seeking profit from price movements. Regulatory oversight enhances the utility of open interest in futures by providing detailed breakdowns. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes daily large trader reports and weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, which categorize open interest into commercial (hedgers) and non-commercial (speculators) positions, along with non-reportable smaller traders. These reports, continued and expanded by the CFTC after its establishment in 1974, offer transparency into market composition and potential influences on price trends. High open interest in these categories indicates robust liquidity, enabling large institutional trades with reduced slippage— the difference between expected and actual execution prices—due to ample counterparties. A practical illustration is the (NYMEX) crude (CL), where open interest surged to peaks near 4 million contracts amid the 2020 triggered by the Russia-Saudi Arabia dispute and . This elevated open interest reflected hedging by producers and refiners alongside speculative bets on recovery, underscoring the market's during extreme . However, such high concentrations can also heighten risks; for instance, during the 1998 (LTCM) crisis, the rapid unwinding of the hedge fund's sizable futures positions—representing significant portions of open interest in various markets—amplified price swings and liquidity strains across global futures exchanges.

In Options Markets

In options markets, open interest is tracked on a granular level for each specific contract series, defined by the underlying asset, , , and whether it is a call or . This detailed reporting allows market participants to monitor and potential price levels of interest across various maturities and exercise prices. The (OCC), which clears all U.S. listed options, provides daily open interest data disaggregated by these parameters, covering the past 24 months of trading activity to reflect ongoing positions in the . High open interest at particular prices often serves as a magnet for the underlying asset's , acting as potential or levels due to the concentration of hedging and gamma-related activities by market makers. This phenomenon underpins the "max pain" , which posits that the of the underlying tends to gravitate toward the with the highest aggregate open interest in both calls and puts, as this minimizes payouts for option writers and causes the maximum number of contracts to expire worthless. Empirical analysis s this pattern, showing predictable price reversals toward high open interest s near expiration, particularly for stocks with significant options activity. The put/call open interest ratio further aids in gauging market sentiment in options trading, calculated as the total open interest in put options divided by that in call options for a given underlying or index. A ratio greater than 1 signals bearish bias, indicating more protective or speculative downside positions, while a value below 1 suggests bullish sentiment. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) illustrates this, with ratios often spiking above 1 prior to major events like corporate earnings announcements, reflecting heightened hedging demand. Options expiration cycles amplify the role of open interest, particularly on "quad witching" days—the third Friday of , , , and December—when stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock futures, and single-stock options expire simultaneously, leading to massive rollovers of positions into new contracts. These events drive elevated trading volumes and in underlying stocks as traders unwind or rebalance large open interest concentrations. In the aftermath of the , which heightened regulatory scrutiny on derivatives expirations, these events underscore the potential to exacerbate market stress during recovery periods. Unlike futures open interest, which tracks a single standardized per without directional subtypes, options open interest encompasses both calls and puts, providing a more nuanced view of bullish and bearish exposures within the same underlying. Upon exercise, in-the-money options can result in the creation of offsetting futures positions if the options are on futures , thereby transferring open interest from the options market to the futures market and influencing overall positioning. This interplay distinguishes options dynamics, where expiration exercises can dynamically alter futures open interest levels.

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