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Pork cycle

The pork cycle, also known as the hog cycle, refers to the recurring fluctuations in hog production, supply, and prices within the swine industry, driven primarily by biological time lags in breeding and market responses to profitability signals.^[1] These cycles typically span several years, with periods of expansion followed by contraction, as producers adjust herd sizes in reaction to price changes that occur with a delay of about 12 to 18 months due to gestation, farrowing, and growth periods.^[2] The biological hog cycle encompasses the approximately six-month timeframe from birth to market weight, during which sows produce around two litters per year with an average of 11 piglets each, reaching slaughter weight of 270–285 pounds after 22–26 weeks of growth.^[1] In contrast, the economic hog cycle manifests as peaks and valleys in inventories and prices, often lasting a year or more, reflecting broader supply-demand imbalances.^[1] This phenomenon was first systematically observed and documented in the late 19th century by American farmer Samuel Benner, who in his 1875 publication identified an approximately 11-year cycle in corn and hog prices, with peaks occurring every five to six years, attributing it to natural rhythms in agricultural production.^[3] Benner's work laid early groundwork for understanding these patterns, which later became a cornerstone example in economic theory, particularly the cobweb model developed in the 1930s.^[4] The cobweb theorem explains the cycle through a lagged supply response: when prices rise due to shortages, producers expand herds by retaining more sows or increasing breeding, but the resulting surge in supply arrives at market after the biological lag, oversupplying the market and driving prices down, prompting contractions that eventually lead to renewed shortages.^[5] This dynamic creates oscillatory behavior, independent of broader economic cycles, and has been modeled as a multi-frequency process integrating harmonic motions to decompose U.S. hog production variations.^[6] The pork cycle has significant implications for the swine sector, influencing farm incomes, feed demand (particularly corn), and policy interventions like government support programs during bust phases.^[2] Historically, cycles have persisted despite technological advances in breeding and artificial insemination, which now account for over 97% of U.S. hog matings, because the inherent biological constraints remain.^[1] In modern contexts, such as the U.S. industry, which slaughters over 130 million hogs annually, these fluctuations continue to challenge producers, though integration into large-scale operations has somewhat dampened amplitude compared to earlier eras.^[1] The cycle also extends analogously to other livestock markets with similar production lags, like cattle, underscoring its role as a classic case of endogenous market instability in economics.^[4]

Background and Definition

Core Concept and Characteristics

The pork cycle, also known as the hog cycle, is an economic phenomenon characterized by recurring fluctuations in pork prices and production volumes, primarily driven by time lags between farmers' supply decisions in response to price signals and the subsequent market realization of those decisions. These cycles typically span 3 to 4 years for a complete phase from peak to peak, encompassing periods of expansion and contraction in hog inventories.^[2]^[7] A core feature of the pork cycle is the overshooting of supply due to farmers' lagged responses to price incentives, rooted in the biological constraints of livestock production. When prices rise due to tightening supplies, producers expand herds by increasing breeding, but the gestation period (approximately 114 days) and time to market—5 to 6 months from birth to slaughter weight—delay the impact, often resulting in excess supply that drives prices down to unprofitable levels, for a total of about 9 to 10 months from breeding to slaughter. This triggers contractions, as farmers cull sows and reduce farrowings, eventually leading to supply shortages and price recovery. Price amplitudes in these cycles are significant, with variations often exceeding 50% from trough to peak in major markets like the United States, where recorded ranges have spanned from about 64% to 137% of baseline levels.^[2]^[7]^[8] Unlike broader business cycles influenced by monetary policy or inventory adjustments, the pork cycle is distinctly supply-driven and tied to agriculture's inherent biological and technological limitations, such as fixed reproduction timelines and imperfect demand forecasting by producers. This results in counter-directional movements between production and prices—expansions coincide with falling prices, and contractions with rising ones—creating an autonomous oscillation not fully synchronized with general economic trends.^[7] The basic timeline unfolds as follows: rising prices prompt herd expansion (with a 9- to 10-month lag to increased supply), causing a surge in output and subsequent price collapse; low prices then lead to herd reductions, diminishing supply over time and enabling price recovery to restart the cycle.^[2] The cobweb model serves as a theoretical framework for understanding these lags, depicting how sequential supply adjustments based on prior prices generate oscillatory patterns.^[5]

Historical Development

The pork cycle, a phenomenon characterized by periodic fluctuations in hog prices and production, was first systematically identified in the late 19th century through observations of agricultural market patterns. Samuel Benner, an American farmer and economist, formulated the concept in his 1875 publication Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices, where he analyzed historical data on hog, corn, and pig-iron prices to discern recurring cycles of approximately 11 years, attributing them to supply responses to prior price signals. In the United States, particularly in the Midwest pork belt, similar patterns emerged prominently in the early 20th century, with hog prices exhibiting volatile swings tied to corn feed costs and farrowing rates.^[9] During the 1920s, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conducted pivotal studies that linked hog prices directly to breeding and farrowing decisions, highlighting how farmers' lagged responses amplified market instability. Mordecai Ezekiel, an economist with the USDA, first observed the cycle explicitly in the U.S. pig market in 1926, documenting four-year oscillations driven by production lags.^[10] In Europe, Arthur Hanau extended this analysis in 1927, identifying analogous cycles in German hog markets and emphasizing the role of price expectations in perpetuating fluctuations. The 1930s saw further formalization amid the Great Depression, when the pork cycle served as a key example of agricultural maladjustment; policymakers, including Secretary of Agriculture Henry A. Wallace, referenced it in programs to curb overproduction, such as the 1933 slaughter of excess pigs to stabilize prices.^[11] Economist Henry Schultz contributed significantly by analyzing time-series data on hog prices during this period, revealing periodic swings that underscored the cycle's empirical regularity.^[12] Post-World War II, the pork cycle gained international recognition, with studies documenting its persistence despite wartime disruptions and reconstruction efforts. By the 1970s, amid accelerating globalization of agricultural trade, the concept was integrated into broader economic frameworks, with economists examining how international demand and feed imports influenced cycle amplitudes across interconnected markets.^[13] This evolution marked a shift from localized observations to a foundational element in agricultural economics, emphasizing time lags as a persistent driver without delving into theoretical derivations.

Theoretical Frameworks

Cobweb Model

The cobweb model, a foundational framework in economics for analyzing cyclical fluctuations in agricultural markets, was developed to explain periodic price and quantity oscillations arising from lagged supply responses. The term "cobweb" was first introduced by Nicholas Kaldor in his 1934 analysis of equilibrium determinateness, where he illustrated how recursive price adjustments could produce zigzag patterns in price-quantity space resembling a cobweb.^[14] Mordecai Ezekiel formalized and extended the model in 1938, applying it specifically to commodity markets like hogs, where biological production lags—such as fixed gestation periods—amplify the delay between price signals and supply adjustments.^[15] This model gained prominence for its ability to capture the pork cycle's characteristic 3- to 4-year periodicity without invoking external shocks. The model rests on several key assumptions that simplify agricultural dynamics: producers form supply expectations based solely on the previous period's price, leading to a one-period lag in production decisions; supply and demand functions are linear; and there is no storage, speculation, or carryover inventory to buffer fluctuations.^[15] Under these conditions, supply in period t is given by Q_t^s = a + b P_{t-1}, where a is the intercept, b > 0 is the supply slope reflecting responsiveness to lagged prices, and P_{t-1} is the prior price. Demand in period t is Q_t^d = c - d P_t, with c as the intercept and d > 0 as the (absolute value of the) demand slope. Market clearing equates supply and demand each period, yielding the price recursion P_t = \frac{c - a - b P_{t-1}}{d}. The equilibrium price P^* satisfies a + b P^* = c - d P^*, or P^* = \frac{c - a}{b + d}, where supply equals demand at a stable level absent lags.^[15] The mechanics of the model hinge on expectation-based supply adjustments, producing trajectories that converge to equilibrium, diverge explosively, or oscillate cyclically depending on the relative steepness of supply and demand curves—or equivalently, the elasticities. Convergence occurs when the absolute value of the adjustment coefficient |b/d| < 1, meaning supply responds less sensitively to lagged prices than demand does to current prices, damping oscillations over time. If |b/d| > 1, divergence ensues, with prices and quantities amplifying away from equilibrium, potentially leading to market instability. When |b/d| = 1, continuous oscillations persist around P^*. In elasticity terms, stability requires the supply elasticity to be less than the demand elasticity at equilibrium, as steeper demand (higher elasticity) absorbs supply shocks more effectively.^[15] In the context of the pork cycle, the cobweb model is particularly apt due to hogs' fixed gestation period of approximately 114 days, or about four months, which enforces a discrete lag between breeding decisions and market supply. This biological constraint aligns with the model's one-period lag assumption, often calibrated to quarterly or annual data, and has been shown to generate divergent or oscillatory paths in unregulated hog markets, as observed in U.S. data from the mid-20th century where high supply responsiveness to past high prices led to overproduction and subsequent price crashes. For instance, Arthur Harlow's analysis demonstrated how the model's explosive dynamics could replicate the hog cycle's amplitude when supply elasticity exceeds demand elasticity during boom periods.^[8]^[16]

Alternative Explanations

While the cobweb model provides a foundational explanation for cyclical fluctuations in livestock markets through production lags and naive price expectations, it has notable limitations. It overlooks adaptive expectations among producers, who do not solely rely on the previous period's price but instead update forecasts based on past errors, leading to more realistic but less explosive dynamics.^[17] Additionally, the model neglects technological advancements in breeding or feeding practices that can alter supply responses over time, as well as external shocks such as weather events or policy changes that disrupt market equilibrium.^[17] Furthermore, its assumption of naive expectations equates to incomplete information processing, which fails to account for the volatility in input costs like feed prices that producers must navigate in real agricultural settings.^[18] One prominent alternative is Nerlove's adaptive expectations model, which addresses these shortcomings by positing that farmers revise their price expectations gradually rather than instantaneously. In this framework, the expected price for period t, denoted E_t, is formed as a weighted average of the previous period's actual price P_{t-1} and the prior expectation E_{t-1}:

E_t = \lambda P_{t-1} + (1 - \lambda) E_{t-1}, \quad 0 < \lambda < 1

Here, \lambda represents the adjustment speed, with higher values indicating faster adaptation to new information.^[19] This formulation results in damped cycles, where oscillations converge toward equilibrium more steadily than in the standard cobweb setup, better capturing observed stability in pork production adjustments.^[19] Extensions incorporating rational expectations, as introduced by Muth, further refine the analysis by assuming producers form forecasts using all available information, including future market conditions, rather than backward-looking rules. Under rational expectations, agents anticipate the full implications of their actions on prices, often leading to self-fulfilling equilibria that mitigate divergence in livestock cycles. This approach highlights forward-looking behavior, such as hedging against anticipated supply gluts, which stabilizes markets beyond simple lag effects.^[18] Biological-economic models offer another lens, integrating herd dynamics and stochastic biological factors with economic decisions to explain cycle amplification. These frameworks emphasize reproductive lags, mortality rates, and disease outbreaks as inherent amplifiers of volatility, alongside feed cost fluctuations that alter marginal production costs.^[20] For instance, sudden outbreaks can reduce herd sizes unpredictably, exacerbating price swings independent of expectation errors.^[20] Hybrid approaches combine these elements with real business cycle theory, where macroeconomic variables like interest rates influence herd investment decisions and propagate cycles across sectors. In such models, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of maintaining breeding stock, delaying expansions and intensifying downturns in livestock supply.^[21] This integration underscores how broader economic fluctuations interact with sector-specific lags to sustain pork market cycles.^[21]

Empirical Evidence and Applications

Observations in Pork Markets

Empirical observations from the U.S. pork industry demonstrate recurring cycles in hog prices and production spanning the 20th century, characterized by a periodicity of approximately 3 to 4 years between 1920 and 2000.^[22] Historical USDA data reveal notable price peaks, such as in the mid-1930s, early 1950s, and mid-1960s, followed by significant declines of 40 to 60 percent as supply expansions outpaced demand.^[23] These patterns reflect producers' responses to prior high prices by increasing farrowings, leading to subsequent gluts and price corrections.^[2] Quantitative analysis of USDA datasets highlights average cycle amplitudes in production volumes with swings of 20 to 30 percent, particularly evident in weekly slaughter variations during the 1970s.^[24] Additionally, correlations between lagged hog prices and subsequent herd sizes show a strong positive relationship, with coefficients around 0.7, indicating that higher prices in one period predict expanded inventories 12 to 18 months later due to biological lags in breeding and gestation.^[25] These metrics underscore the self-reinforcing nature of supply adjustments in the market. Spectral analysis of time-series data from hog prices and inventories identifies dominant frequencies corresponding to cycles of about 3.5 years, confirming the persistence of these oscillations through much of the 20th century.^[22] Such methods decompose the data into periodic components, revealing how low-frequency trends interact with shorter cyclical elements to drive market volatility.^[26] In the 1990s, a severe overproduction crisis exemplified these dynamics, as expanded herds from earlier profitable years flooded the market, driving live hog prices to as low as 8 cents per pound in late 1998 and triggering widespread farm bankruptcies, with Chapter 12 filings rising sharply in the Midwest.^[27] More recently, in the 2010s, U.S. pork cycles were modulated by surging export demands to China amid that country's domestic supply shortfalls, boosting U.S. shipments by over 20 percent annually during peak import years like 2011 and stabilizing domestic prices against potential gluts.^[28] These observed lags in supply responses align briefly with cobweb model predictions of alternating booms and busts.^[2] The African Swine Fever outbreak in China starting in 2018 further amplified U.S. exports, with shipments surging by over 50 percent in 2020-2021 to meet the shortfall of approximately 28 million metric tons in Chinese pork production from late 2018 to early 2021.^[29] As of March 2025, USDA projections indicate that hog cycles remain moderated by large-scale production, with U.S. pork production expected to increase from 28.5 billion pounds in 2025 to 32.6 billion pounds by 2034.^[30]

Extensions to Other Livestock Sectors

The pork cycle, characterized by periodic fluctuations in supply and prices driven by biological lags in production, extends to other livestock sectors with variations based on species-specific biology and market dynamics. In beef cattle markets, cycles typically span 8-12 years, longer than pork cycles due to the 18-24 month maturation period from birth to slaughter, which delays supply responses to price signals. This extended timeline amplifies oversupply risks during expansion phases, as seen in the 1970s U.S. cattle bust, where rapid herd buildups in the early decade led to a sharp contraction and low prices by the mid-1970s amid falling demand and excess inventory.^[31]^[32]^[33] Poultry and egg production exhibit shorter cycles of 1-2 years, enabled by rapid breeding and maturation—broilers reach market weight in 7-8 weeks, while layers begin producing at 4-4.5 months and sustain cycles of 14-15 months. These quick turnovers allow faster adjustments to price changes, making cycles less pronounced than in pork or beef, though external shocks like the 2008 feed price crisis still triggered supply reductions and price volatility across the sector.^[30]^[34]^[35] In broader livestock markets, dairy production features seasonal mini-cycles tied to calving and lactation patterns, with milk yields peaking in early lactation (around 40-60 days post-calving) and influenced by annual forage availability and breeding schedules that often align with spring grass growth.^[36]^[37] Cross-sector insights reveal common drivers like feed price volatility from corn and soybean fluctuations, which elevate production costs across beef, pork, poultry, dairy, and sheep, often prolonging downturns in cycles by prompting herd or flock liquidations. Differences in price elasticity further distinguish responses: pork markets are more elastic, with demand dropping 1.12% per 1% price increase, compared to beef's inelastic 0.26% response, allowing pork producers quicker supply corrections than their beef counterparts.^[38]^[39]

Implications and Modern Perspectives

Economic and Policy Impacts

The pork cycle contributes to significant income volatility for farmers due to lagged supply responses to price signals.^[40] This volatility manifests in sharp revenue swings, such as the nearly $30 per hundredweight spread in hog prices observed in 2019, driven by trade disruptions and production cycles.^[41] These effects extend beyond farms, creating spillovers to rural economies through reduced employment in related sectors and instability in meat processing operations, while consumer prices for pork exhibit asymmetric transmission from farm-level volatility. The U.S. pork industry, supporting 573,000 jobs and generating over $37 billion in personal income as of 2023, amplifies these regional economic ripples during cycle troughs.^[42] Socially, pork cycles exacerbate farm consolidations, particularly during low-price periods, resulting in fewer but larger operations as smaller producers exit the market.^[43] Since the 1990s, the number of U.S. hog farms has declined sharply, with independent producers now owning only 35% of the inventory compared to integrators controlling a growing share, leading to concentrated operations that squeeze smaller farmers' autonomy and incomes.^[44] Supply gluts during cycle peaks pose food security risks, including potential waste from oversupply and price crashes that discourage balanced production, though these are mitigated somewhat by processing capacities.^[45] Policy responses to pork cycles began with the U.S. Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933, which included price supports for hogs through voluntary production reductions, such as payments to farmers for slaughtering excess pigs to curb surpluses and stabilize prices.^[46] In the European Union, the Common Agricultural Policy's intervention buying in the 1980s addressed overproduction by purchasing surplus pork to support prices and incomes, particularly as membership expansions like Spain's in 1986 spurred production relocations.^[47] Modern U.S. subsidies, such as Livestock Risk Protection insurance for swine, tie into cycle mitigation by offering coverage against price declines, allowing producers to insure hogs up to 26 weeks before marketing to buffer volatility.^[48] These policies have proven partially effective; post-1940s U.S. price supports for livestock, including hogs, contributed to greater market stability by acting as floors during downturns, though exact amplitude reductions vary by commodity.^[49] However, such measures have fostered moral hazard, encouraging overproduction as farmers anticipate government intervention, which perpetuates cycle intensity and surplus issues as seen in broader agricultural trends.^[50]

Current Relevance and Adaptations

In the 2020s, the pork cycle has persisted amid global disruptions, notably amplified by the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Asia from 2018 to 2022, which led to mass culling of over 200 million pigs in China alone and caused widespread supply shortages that drove up international pork prices by up to 50% in affected markets.^[51] This event not only reduced China's domestic production by approximately 27% but also shifted global trade dynamics, increasing exports from the EU and US to fill the gap, thereby exacerbating cyclical volatility in non-affected regions.^[52] Additionally, climate change has intensified cycle fluctuations through droughts impacting feed supplies, such as the 2022-2023 events in the US Midwest and Europe that raised corn and soybean prices by 20-30%, forcing producers to adjust herd sizes and contributing to supply chain instability.^[53] Technological adaptations have emerged to mitigate these cycles, with precision farming technologies like sensor-based monitoring and AI-driven forecasting enabling producers to optimize breeding and feeding decisions, potentially shortening production lags from 12-18 months to under a year in integrated operations.^[54] For instance, AI models now predict pig growth and market demand with 85-95% accuracy, allowing for more responsive adjustments to price signals and reducing overproduction risks.^[55] Large-scale vertical integration, where companies control multiple stages from breeding to processing, has further buffered cycle exposure for major producers, stabilizing revenues through diversified revenue streams and hedging against price swings, as seen in the US where integrated firms maintained profitability during the 2020-2022 downturn.^[56] Globally, export-oriented markets like Brazil exhibit shorter pork cycles, often lasting 3-5 years rather than the traditional 4-6, due to rapid adjustments driven by international demand and efficient supply chains that respond quickly to trade flows.^[57] World Trade Organization (WTO) rules constraining agricultural subsidies—capping them at 5% of production value for developed nations—have pushed producers toward market-based risk tools, such as pork futures contracts on exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which allow hedging against price volatility and with trading volumes rising in the 2020s.^[58]^[1] Looking ahead, biotechnological advances, including gene-edited breeds with 10-15% faster growth rates and improved feed efficiency, offer potential to dampen cycle amplitudes by accelerating production timelines and stabilizing supply.^[59] However, risks from trade wars, such as the US-China tariffs imposed in early 2025 that disrupted about 20% of global pork flows but were suspended in November 2025, could prolong downturns and heighten volatility.^[60] In November 2025, a US-China trade agreement led to the suspension of retaliatory tariffs, potentially stabilizing pork trade flows.^[61] Recent data through 2025 indicate fluctuations in EU pork prices, with general agricultural prices rising 2.6% in the first quarter from 2024 levels, though pork prices declined later in the year, underscoring the cycle's ongoing influence despite adaptations.^[62] Traditional cobweb dynamics continue to underpin these patterns, as lagged producer responses to price changes sustain oscillations in modern contexts.^[63]

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The Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (“SCM Agreement”) addresses two separate but closely related topics: multilateral disciplines regulating ...
[58]
Molecular breeding of pigs in the genome editing era
Mar 10, 2025 · The emergence and innovation of modern breeding biotechniques, ranging from transgenic techniques to gene editing strategies, have introduced ...Missing: dampen | Show results with:dampen
[59]
Trade tensions, disease pressures shake global pork markets
Aug 19, 2025 · Ongoing trade negotiations continue to fuel instability in global pork markets, particularly between the US and China, according to a recent ...
[60]
EU agricultural prices increased in first quarter of 2025 - Pig333.com
In the first quarter of 2025, the average price of agricultural output in the EU rose by 2.6%, marking a second consecutive quarter of price increases.
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(PDF) International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle - ResearchGate
Aug 10, 2025 · Well known economic concepts such as Hanaus pork cycle or Ezekiels cobweb theorem are based on the empirical analysis of pork markets.