Fact-checked by Grok 2 weeks ago

Sunk cost

A sunk cost is an expenditure—whether monetary, temporal, or effort-based—that has already been made and cannot be recovered, irrespective of subsequent decisions.^[1] In economic theory and rational choice frameworks, such costs are irrelevant to forward-looking decisions, which should hinge solely on anticipated future costs and benefits to maximize utility or profit.^[2] The sunk cost fallacy, however, denotes the pervasive cognitive bias wherein prior investments irrationally influence continuation of a course of action, even when prospective analysis indicates cessation would yield better outcomes; this deviation from optimality has been substantiated through controlled experiments showing escalated commitment after sunk inputs.^[3]^[4] Empirical studies across domains, including investment staging and personal choices, reveal this bias persists despite awareness, often amplified by loss aversion and commitment escalation, though some analyses suggest apparent sunk cost effects may reflect rational inferences in uncertain or repeated interaction settings rather than pure fallacy.^[5]^[6] Key manifestations include prolonged funding of unviable projects in business and policy, where ignoring sunk costs enables pivot to superior alternatives, underscoring the fallacy's role in systemic inefficiencies.^[7]

Historical and Conceptual Origins

Economic Foundations and Bygones Principle

In economic theory, a sunk cost constitutes an irrecoverable expenditure already committed, such as funds spent on research and development or non-refundable purchases, which cannot be altered by subsequent decisions.^[8] Rational agents exclude these costs from future analyses because they do not vary with the chosen action, ensuring decisions hinge on incremental changes in costs and benefits rather than historical outlays.^[9] This approach aligns with marginal analysis, a cornerstone of microeconomics, where only marginal costs—those affected by the decision—and marginal revenues inform whether to continue, expand, or terminate an endeavor.^[8] The bygones principle codifies this exclusion, asserting that past costs, or "bygones," should be disregarded in favor of evaluating options based solely on their anticipated future consequences.^[10] Formulated within neoclassical frameworks, it emphasizes causal irrelevance: since sunk costs precede and are independent of current choices, factoring them in distorts utility maximization by conflating fixed historical realities with variable prospective paths.^[10] Economists like Richard Lipsey have highlighted its practical application, noting that adherence prevents inefficient persistence in unviable projects, as seen in cases where firms abandon underperforming assets despite prior investments when forward-looking net present value turns negative.^[10] For instance, consider a firm that has invested $10 million in a prototype with no salvage value; if additional outlays of $5 million yield expected revenues of $8 million, the decision to proceed rests on the positive $3 million marginal gain, ignoring the initial $10 million as a bygone.^[8] Violations occur when decision-makers irrationally weigh sunk inputs, leading to suboptimal resource allocation, but the principle upholds that true economic efficiency demands prospective orientation to align actions with opportunity costs and alternative uses of resources.^[9] This foundation underpins cost-benefit analyses in policy and business, promoting detachment from irrecoverable losses to prioritize value creation.^[10]

Emergence of the Fallacy Concept

The concept of the sunk cost fallacy emerged in the 1980s within psychology and behavioral economics, as researchers began documenting systematic deviations from the classical economic bygones principle, which holds that irrecoverable past costs should not influence forward-looking decisions. Early economic theory, such as that articulated by John Maynard Keynes in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), implicitly endorsed ignoring sunk costs by emphasizing marginal analysis for future utility maximization. However, behavioral studies revealed that individuals often persisted in unprofitable courses of action due to prior investments of time, money, or effort, framing this as an error in judgment rather than rational behavior.^[11] A pivotal contribution came from Richard Thaler, who in 1980 hypothesized the "sunk cost effect" in the context of mental accounting, arguing that people irrationally incorporate non-recoverable costs into decision frameworks, leading to suboptimal choices. This laid groundwork for viewing sunk costs not merely as economic irrelevancies but as psychological traps. The effect was then empirically demonstrated and termed the "sunk cost effect" by psychologists Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer in their 1985 study published in Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. Through experiments, such as scenarios involving theater tickets or ski lift purchases, they showed participants were more likely to continue endeavors after personal sunk investments compared to hypothetical or non-personal costs, attributing this to a desire to avoid the appearance of wastefulness and inflated estimates of future success.^[12]^[13] Arkes and Blumer's work marked a shift toward recognizing the fallacy as a cognitive bias, distinct from economic rationality, influencing subsequent research in prospect theory and loss aversion. Their findings, replicated in varied contexts like consumer behavior and organizational decisions, established that the bias persists even when decision-makers intellectually understand sunk costs' irrelevance, suggesting deeper emotional and self-justification mechanisms. This psychological framing contrasted with prior economic dismissals, highlighting how empirical evidence from controlled experiments challenged assumptions of human homo economicus.^[11]

Definition and Core Principle

Sunk Costs in Rational Decision-Making

In rational decision-making, sunk costs—defined as irrecoverable expenditures already incurred, such as past investments of time, money, or resources—are excluded from future-oriented analyses because they remain constant regardless of subsequent choices.^[7] This approach aligns with normative economic theory, where decisions maximize expected utility by evaluating only marginal costs and benefits that vary with the action taken.^[14] For instance, if a firm has spent $10 million developing a product prototype that fails initial tests, rationality dictates assessing continuation based solely on projected revenues minus additional development and production costs, not the initial outlay.^[15] The bygones principle formalizes this exclusion, instructing decision-makers to treat past costs as irrelevant "bygones" and base choices on current and prospective data to avoid compounding errors.^[16] Originating in economic reasoning, this principle counters intuitive tendencies to justify persistence through prior commitments, emphasizing causal irrelevance: sunk costs cannot alter future outcomes but can distort perception if weighted.^[17] Empirical tests in controlled settings, such as investment vignettes, confirm that agents adhering to this principle achieve higher net returns compared to those incorporating sunk elements, as verified in laboratory experiments where rational baselines ignore historical inputs.^[7] From a first-principles perspective, rationality prioritizes forward-looking causality over retrospective accounting, as human cognition often conflates commitment with obligation, leading to suboptimal paths when sunk costs are factored.^[18] In practice, this manifests in protocols like cost-benefit analyses in policy or business, where guidelines explicitly segregate sunk from variable costs to ensure decisions reflect genuine opportunity costs.^[14] Violations, while common, deviate from this standard, as evidenced by field studies showing persistent but inefficient resource allocation when past expenditures influence choices.^[15]

Distinction from Prospective Costs

Sunk costs are irrecoverable expenditures already incurred, such as payments for non-refundable resources or efforts expended without future salvage value.^[1] These costs remain fixed regardless of subsequent choices, rendering them irrelevant to evaluating the viability of ongoing or alternative actions.^[19] Prospective costs, by contrast, encompass future outlays that can still be influenced or avoided through decision-making, such as additional investments required to complete a project or incremental expenses tied to persistence versus withdrawal.^[20] In traditional economic theory, only these forward-oriented costs—and their associated benefits—inform rational choices, as they directly impact marginal returns and net gains.^[21] This distinction underpins the bygones principle, which posits that past costs, being unalterable, should be treated as irrelevant "bygones" in prospective analysis to avoid distorting judgments toward escalation.^[22] For instance, in a business scenario where initial research and development funds are spent (sunk), decisions on further production should hinge solely on anticipated future revenues minus avoidable manufacturing costs (prospective), not the prior outlay.^[19] Failure to differentiate often leads to inefficient resource allocation, as evidenced in empirical studies where subjects overemphasize sunk inputs at the expense of marginal evaluations.^[11]

Manifestations of the Sunk Cost Fallacy

Plan Continuation and Escalation Bias

Plan continuation bias describes the cognitive tendency to adhere to an initial plan despite emerging evidence indicating that deviation would be more rational, often amplified by sunk costs that make abandonment feel like a waste of prior time, effort, or resources.^[23] This manifestation of the sunk cost fallacy arises because decision-makers overweight irrecoverable investments, leading to persistence in suboptimal paths; for example, in aviation, pilots have continued flights into hazardous conditions after significant fuel consumption, contributing to controlled flight into terrain incidents.^[23] Empirical observations link this bias to sunk costs, as individuals rationalize continuation to avoid admitting prior judgments were flawed, rather than reassessing based on prospective outcomes.^[17] Escalation of commitment represents a more intensified form, where not only is the original plan maintained, but additional resources—financial, temporal, or human—are committed to a failing endeavor in hopes of vindicating past investments.^[24] This bias was first systematically studied by Barry M. Staw in a 1976 experiment simulating an Asian market division's decline, where participants who had chosen to invest initially recommended 72% more funding for the failing operation compared to those assigning it externally, demonstrating how personal responsibility for sunk costs drives escalation.^[25] Subsequent research confirms that sunk costs elevate the likelihood of further investment; in one study, decision-makers exposed to high prior expenditures in a project simulation allocated up to 20% more resources to continuation despite negative performance feedback.^[4] Both biases underscore how sunk costs distort forward-looking rationality, fostering entrapment in deteriorating situations across domains like business and policy. In organizational settings, escalation often stems from competitive pressures or public accountability, where admitting failure risks reputational damage, prompting leaders to "double down" rather than cut losses.^[26] Overcoming these requires explicit separation of past from future costs, as interventions focusing on prospective gains have reduced escalation in experimental groups by prompting reevaluation of incremental benefits.^[4]

Empirical Effects in Experiments

Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that individuals exhibit a greater tendency to continue unprofitable or aversive activities after incurring sunk costs, such as money, time, or effort, compared to scenarios without such prior investments.^[11] In the foundational study by Arkes and Blumer (1985), participants faced a hypothetical theater scenario where they had either purchased a ticket or found one; those who had bought the ticket were significantly more likely to attend the play despite inclement weather that made the outing undesirable, illustrating persistence driven by the non-recoverable expenditure.^[11] A complementary investment game in the same study involved managing a fictional mining operation with deteriorating prospects; subjects who had already invested more funds were more inclined to allocate additional resources, even when future returns did not justify it, with continuation rates increasing with prior sunk investments.^[11] Subsequent experiments have extended these findings to non-monetary costs. For example, studies manipulating sunk time or effort show participants completing tasks they would otherwise abandon, such as persisting in puzzles or games after investing personal labor, with effect sizes comparable to monetary conditions.^[27] In real-effort paradigms, where subjects earn rewards through tasks before facing continuation decisions, sunk costs from prior exertion lead to higher persistence rates, though the effect diminishes when future prospects are explicitly highlighted.^[2] Experiments with actual financial incentives confirm the bias, as participants in investment simulations continue funding loss-making projects more often when prior outlays are high, deviating from rational prospective evaluation.^[7] Meta-analytic reviews synthesize these results, revealing a robust sunk cost effect across 98 experimental effect sizes, with an average standardized mean difference indicating moderate influence on decision persistence, particularly when sunk costs are self-attributed or salient.^[28] Variations emerge by cost type: monetary sunk costs elicit stronger effects than time in some replications, though both surpass no-cost baselines.^[29] Incentivized designs mitigate but do not eliminate the bias, suggesting psychological commitment over mere financial loss aversion.^[30] These empirical patterns hold in controlled settings, underscoring the fallacy's prevalence despite instructions emphasizing irrelevance of past costs.^[4]

Psychological and Behavioral Drivers

Cognitive Biases Influencing Persistence

Persistence in sunk cost scenarios arises from intertwined cognitive biases that distort rational evaluation of future prospects. Central among these is loss aversion, wherein decision-makers disproportionately emphasize avoiding the realization of prior investments as losses, often continuing unprofitable courses to mitigate perceived waste. This bias, integral to prospect theory, manifests empirically in laboratory experiments where participants allocate additional resources to failing projects after sunk expenditures, even absent prospective value; for instance, in Arkes and Blumer's 1985 study, subjects spent more on theater tickets with prior costs despite equivalent future utility.^[13] Loss aversion's influence persists across cognitive ability levels, though higher cognitive capacity may slightly attenuate but not eliminate the effect, as evidenced by regression analyses in decision-making tasks.^[31] Complementing loss aversion, the commitment and consistency bias drives persistence by compelling alignment of current actions with past decisions to preserve self-image and reduce cognitive dissonance. Rooted in Festinger's theory, this leads individuals to escalate investments in doomed endeavors, rationalizing continuation as fidelity to initial intent rather than reassessing viability. Empirical support emerges from longitudinal studies showing trait-like tendencies to overgeneralize consistency norms, such as adhering to "non-waste" heuristics, which amplify sunk cost adherence in both personal and organizational contexts.^[32] In organizational settings, this bias underlies escalation of commitment, where leaders double down on failing projects to justify prior allocations, as documented in meta-analyses of decision traps.^[4] Further reinforcing persistence, regret aversion biases evaluations toward avoiding the emotional sting of premature abandonment, often conflating sunk costs with prospective regret. This heuristic, while adaptive in uncertain environments, systematically errs in sunk cost contexts by overweighting hypothetical past regrets over forward-looking analysis. Experimental paradigms, including those inducing gain-focused motivations, demonstrate debiasing potential, yet baseline persistence remains robust, with participants in simulated investment scenarios continuing 20-30% longer when primed with sunk losses.^[4] These biases collectively undermine prospective rationality, though interventions like explicit prospective framing can mitigate effects, highlighting their malleability under reflective scrutiny.^[33] Negative affective reactions, such as regret and aversion to perceived waste, significantly contribute to the sunk cost effect by motivating persistence in unprofitable endeavors to avoid the emotional discomfort of acknowledging prior losses. Experimental evidence demonstrates a positive correlation between anticipated negative affect and sunk-cost decisions (r = .27, p = .013), with integral affect mediating the effect in scenarios involving investments like theater tickets or business ventures.^[34] In one study, participants reported higher negative affect in invest scenarios (M = 4.41) compared to non-invest controls (M = 5.11), and this affect fully mediated increased commitment to sunk costs (95% CI = -.48, -.04).^[34] Providing justifications for past investments reduces this negative affect (M = 6.12 vs. M = 5.06) and correspondingly lowers susceptibility to the fallacy (p = .05), suggesting that emotional reconciliation can mitigate the bias.^[34] Under high cognitive load, the link between negative affect and sunk-cost persistence strengthens (β = .63, p < .001), indicating that emotional drivers override rational evaluation when mental resources are constrained.^[34] Loss aversion, the heightened emotional impact of losses relative to equivalent gains, further amplifies this by framing sunk costs as irrecoverable losses that demand compensation through continued investment, even absent prospective benefits.^[35] Social norms exert a causal influence on sunk-cost decisions, with individuals more likely to persist when actions align with perceived expectations of others. In correlational analysis across 817 participants, sunk-cost preferences tracked beliefs about normative behavior, showing that perceived social approval predicts continuation.^[36] Experimental manipulation in 219 participants confirmed causality: informing subjects that most others would continue increased persistence, while the reverse decreased it, with time and effort costs eliciting stronger effects than financial ones.^[36] This interpersonal dynamic extends to considering others' prior investments, as people adjust their choices to honor sunk costs incurred by associates, reflecting an audience effect where reputation and consistency concerns heighten the bias.^[37] The psychological principle of commitment and consistency reinforces social factors, as public or observable prior investments create pressure to maintain alignment to preserve self-image and avoid social judgment as inconsistent or wasteful. Empirical observations link this to escalation in group settings, where abandoning sunk costs risks reputational harm, though ethical considerations like potential harm to others can attenuate the effect by invoking norms of care over persistence.^[38] Cultural variations in collectivism further modulate social influences, with tighter norms amplifying sunk-cost bias through heightened conformity pressures.^[39]

Debates on Rationality: Is It Always a Fallacy?

Arguments for Considering Sunk Costs

In certain social and reputational contexts, decision-makers may rationally factor in sunk costs to maintain a coherent autobiographical narrative and avoid signaling incompetence or inconsistency to observers. For instance, continuing a previously initiated project despite irrecoverable investments can disguise diachronic misfortunes—such as suboptimal past choices—from outcome-biased evaluators, thereby preserving social fitness and cooperation prospects.^[6] Empirical studies indicate that individuals exhibit stronger sunk cost effects when personally accountable for the initial investment, suggesting a deliberate strategy to mitigate reputational damage rather than mere irrationality.^[6] Sunk costs can serve as credible commitment devices in strategic interactions, particularly in game-theoretic settings involving repeated games or bargaining. By precommitting resources that are irrecoverable, agents signal resolve to counterparts, deterring defection or exploitation in future rounds; for example, in entry deterrence models, high sunk entry costs can rationally influence incumbents' expectations of competitor persistence. In self-control problems, such costs mitigate present bias by binding agents to long-term plans, as modeled in frameworks where prior investments function as self-imposed barriers against short-term temptations.^[40] Apparent sunk cost effects observed in experiments may not indicate irrationality but rather rational responses confounded by selection biases or variability in underlying valuations. Rational agents maximizing expected rewards can produce behaviors mimicking sunk cost sensitivity, such as increased continuation rates after greater elapsed time, due to attrition bias where longer investments select for higher initial motivations rather than causal influence of past costs.^[41] Causal inference via generative models is essential to distinguish these from true fallacies, as standard tasks often fail to isolate sunk costs from correlated factors like trial duration.^[41] In domains requiring perseverance, such as innovation or long-term projects, considering sunk costs aligns with causal realism by accounting for learning spillovers and resilience gains that prospective analysis might undervalue. Historical cases, including Thomas Edison's iterative failures leading to the incandescent bulb after thousands of trials, illustrate how reframing sunk efforts as cumulative knowledge can yield breakthroughs, though post-hoc rationalization risks must be weighed against empirical success rates in analogous endeavors.^[42] Theoretical models emphasize that ignoring sunk costs entirely overlooks their role in fostering adaptive strategies amid uncertainty, particularly when abandonment signals weakness in competitive environments.^[43]

Empirical Challenges to the Fallacy Label

Empirical studies in high-stakes investment contexts have revealed a reverse sunk cost effect, where larger prior investments decrease the probability of further commitment rather than prompting escalation. In a 2022 experiment involving real financial incentives, participants faced a two-stage investment task and consistently exhibited lower continuation rates following higher initial sunk costs, persisting even among those who displayed standard sunk cost bias in hypothetical surveys.^[7] This pattern aligns with rational risk aversion models that avoid integrating sunk costs with prospective gains, challenging the presumption of irrational persistence as the default response.^[7] Computational modeling further demonstrates that behaviors resembling sunk cost sensitivity can emerge in fully rational agents without invoking cognitive biases. A 2022 analysis re-examining tasks from prior studies (involving humans, mice, and rats) showed that variability in subjective valuation—coupled with statistical confounds like attrition bias—produces apparent persistence tied to elapsed investment, even when decisions maximize expected rewards.^[41] Proper causal designs, such as randomizing offer revisions independent of time invested, eliminate these artifacts, underscoring the need for rigorous controls to distinguish genuine fallacies from rational adaptations to uncertainty.^[41] In political decision-making, observational and experimental research often fails to detect sunk cost effects after accounting for alternative rational drivers like reputational incentives or residual option values. A 2019 review of empirical work across national contexts found no consistent evidence that prior investments propel escalation in failing policies or military engagements, attributing observed continuations instead to forward-looking factors such as public signaling or incomplete information about viability.^[44] These null findings suggest the fallacy label may overstate irrationality in complex, real-world domains where sunk costs proxy for unobservable commitments or learning about future prospects.^[44]

Applications Across Domains

Business and Investment Decisions

In business decisions, the sunk cost fallacy manifests as escalation of commitment, where managers persist with unprofitable projects or divisions due to prior expenditures, rather than evaluating prospective costs and benefits.^[7] Empirical analysis of U.S. firms from 1991 to 2017 reveals that companies overinvest by approximately 2% more in previously loss-making divisions compared to those with gains of equal magnitude, attributing this to failure to disregard sunk losses.^[45] This pattern holds even after controlling for firm characteristics and alternative explanations like agency conflicts or managerial optimism, suggesting a direct influence of past costs on capital allocation.^[45] Corporate examples include prolonged funding of failing initiatives, such as the development of the Concorde supersonic jet by British and French governments, which incurred escalating costs totaling over £1.1 billion by 1976 despite technical and market challenges, though debates persist on whether sunk costs explicitly drove continuation decisions.^[46] In product development, escalation occurs when teams double down on underperforming launches, as seen in historical cases like Kodak's adherence to film technology amid digital shifts, where prior R&D investments deterred timely pivots.^[47] Studies of decision-making professionals confirm that larger sunk costs amplify commitment, with participants more likely to approve further funding for projects with high prior outlays, even when future returns are marginal.^[48] In investment contexts, the fallacy contributes to the disposition effect, where investors hold depreciating assets longer to avoid realizing losses tied to initial purchases, irrationally weighting unrecoverable costs.^[49] Experimental and market data show investors sell winning stocks 1.5 times more frequently than losers, exacerbating portfolio underperformance by 3-4% annually in some analyses.^[50] This behavior persists among professionals, with hope and aversion to admitting error reinforcing retention of "zombie" investments, as evidenced in surveys of fund managers who underperform benchmarks due to delayed exits from failing positions.^[50] Rational decision frameworks, such as marginal analysis, prescribe ignoring sunk costs to optimize returns, yet adherence remains low, leading to billions in avoidable losses across sectors.^[7]

Politics, War, and Public Policy

In military conflicts, sunk costs have been cited as a factor in escalation decisions, where prior expenditures of resources and lives influence continuation despite unfavorable prospects. During the Vietnam War, U.S. troop commitments escalated sharply under President Lyndon B. Johnson following the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution in August 1964, with ground forces growing from approximately 23,000 in 1964 to 184,000 by the end of 1965 and peaking at over 543,000 in 1969, amid mounting casualties exceeding 58,000 American deaths by war's end in 1973 and financial outlays totaling around $168 billion in nominal terms.^[51] ^[52] This persistence has been attributed to reluctance to abandon earlier investments, though alternative explanations include signaling credibility to allies and deterring adversaries. Empirical analyses of public opinion, such as survey experiments, however, detect no unconditional sunk cost effect from casualties on support for further military engagement.^[44] The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021 provides another case, with direct appropriations exceeding $825 billion by fiscal year 2020 and total estimated costs, including future veteran care, reaching $2.3 trillion by some accounts, alongside over 2,400 U.S. military fatalities.^[53] ^[54] Successive administrations under Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump maintained or surged troop levels—peaking at 100,000 in 2011—potentially due to sunk investments, before the Biden administration's full withdrawal by August 2021, which explicitly disregarded past costs in favor of avoiding indefinite commitment.^[55] ^[56] Political science research indicates mixed evidence for sunk costs driving such escalations, with rational factors like reputational concerns often providing competing causal accounts, and lab-translated biases showing weaker effects in real-world national security contexts.^[44] In public policy, sunk costs manifest in the continuation of large-scale government projects facing overruns or obsolescence. The Anglo-French Concorde supersonic airliner program, initiated in 1962, incurred development costs surpassing £1.134 billion by 1976 (equivalent to over £10 billion in 2023 terms), prompting governments to proceed to first flight in 1969 and commercial service in 1976 despite technical delays, high fuel inefficiency, and limited market viability, rather than terminate earlier phases.^[17] Federal initiatives in the U.S., such as certain defense procurements, have similarly exhibited patterns of escalation, with cost overruns averaging 40% or more in major weapons systems from 1950 to 2015, attributable in part to commitments to prior sunk expenditures amid bureaucratic inertia.^[57] Studies of policy persistence highlight that while sunk costs are popularly blamed, empirical tests in political settings frequently yield null results, suggesting decision-makers may weigh forward-looking option values or audience costs more heavily than irrecoverable past inputs.^[44] ^[58]

Personal and Everyday Choices

In personal and everyday choices, the sunk cost effect prompts individuals to persist with endeavors or commitments influenced by irrecoverable prior investments of time, money, or effort, often overriding prospective utility assessments.^[13] This manifests in consumption decisions, where people exhibit greater reluctance to abandon an activity after expending resources; for example, in a hypothetical scenario, 87% of participants chose to attend a theater play despite bad weather if they had bought a non-refundable ticket beforehand, compared to only 20% if they had found the ticket, indicating non-rational escalation based on sunk expenditure.^[11] Field evidence supports this, as theater subscribers paying full price (average $32.50 in 1985 dollars) attended an average of 5.3 performances over six months, versus 3.6 for those receiving a 50% discount, demonstrating how initial costs foster completion commitment even absent marginal benefits.^[11] In gambling contexts, sunk losses intensify chase behavior, with empirical studies showing disordered gamblers display heightened neural activation in decision-making regions under sunk cost conditions, leading to continued play despite negative expected value; functional MRI data from 2018 revealed altered prefrontal and striatal responses correlating with persistence rates exceeding 60% in loss-chasing trials.^[59] This effect extends to habitual pursuits like diets or exercise regimens, where prior time or effort investments—such as weeks of adherence—predict dropout resistance, with meta-analytic reviews estimating moderate effect sizes (Hedges' g ≈ 0.35) across non-financial personal investments, though outcomes often yield suboptimal health or satisfaction metrics.^[28] ^[13] Interpersonal dynamics amplify the effect in relationships, where individuals honor partners' past investments, prolonging involvement; experimental findings indicate participants allocate 25-30% more resources to joint tasks when primed with a counterpart's sunk effort, mirroring real-world prolongation of unviable partnerships due to cumulative emotional or temporal costs.^[37] Such patterns underscore causal persistence driven by aversion to perceived waste, yet empirical interventions, like reframing decisions prospectively, reduce adherence by up to 40% in lab settings, highlighting malleability in everyday rationality.^[4] Overall, these applications reveal sunk costs as a pervasive driver in micro-decisions, with effect robustness confirmed in over 50 studies aggregating individual-level behaviors, though varying by investment type (stronger for money than time).^[28]

Neuroscientific and Economic Modeling Approaches

Brain Mechanisms and Neuroeconomics

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies reveal that the sunk cost effect engages brain regions associated with emotional processing and value integration. A 2016 study found stronger activation in the left insula during decisions under sunk costs relative to equivalent incremental costs, suggesting that irrecoverable investments trigger negative affective signals that promote persistence.^[60] This insula activity correlates with individual differences in conscientiousness and agreeableness, traits linked to greater sunk cost sensitivity, indicating personality modulates neural responses to past expenditures.^[60] The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) supports goal persistence amid sunk costs by prioritizing attention to initial commitments over updating evidence. In a 2024 fMRI experiment involving effortful tasks, vmPFC activity selectively amplified processing of goal-congruent cues, reducing disengagement even as costs accumulated without returns; computational modeling confirmed this mechanism underlies overpersistence.^[61] Patients with vmPFC lesions exhibit diminished sunk cost biases in analogous paradigms, underscoring the region's causal role in overriding rational abandonment.^[62] Dopaminergic signaling reinforces sunk cost adherence by encoding prior efforts as motivational drivers. A 2023 investigation using fast-scan cyclic voltammetry in humans showed striatal dopamine release scaling with invested costs during decision tasks, effectively subsidizing future actions to recoup losses despite diminished prospects.^[63] This phasic dopamine response aligns prior behavior with current valuation, explaining why sunk investments inflate perceived value beyond objective utility. In neuroeconomics, these findings inform descriptive models of decision-making, revealing how sunk costs distort prospect theory via neural recalibration of reference points. A 2021 review integrated behavioral and imaging data to demonstrate that sunk losses adjust mental accounts, engaging orbitofrontal and anterior cingulate regions to blend irrecoverable inputs with prospective gains, thus challenging normative prescriptions to ignore them.^[64] Such mechanisms suggest sunk cost integration may reflect adaptive mental accounting rather than pure fallacy, as evidenced by cross-species persistence in foraging paradigms.^[65]

Formal Models and Simulations

In rational choice theory, sunk costs should not influence forward-looking decisions, as agents maximize expected utility based solely on marginal costs and benefits. However, formal models demonstrate that under incomplete information or uncertainty, optimal Bayesian strategies can produce behaviors resembling the sunk cost effect, where prior investments update beliefs about future prospects, such as inferring higher project viability from sustained funding.^[66] For example, in a dynamic investment simulation, rational agents facing stochastic returns continue funding when sunk costs signal private information about success probabilities, avoiding premature abandonment that would correlate with low-value projects.^[66] This challenges the pure fallacy label by showing apparent persistence as causal inference rather than irrationality.^[41] Stochastic graph-based models formalize sunk cost bias as an explicit abandonment penalty, where agents traverse a cost-laden path but face a fixed switching cost, leading to escalation despite diminishing returns. In such frameworks, the decision rule compares cumulative traversal expenses against the abandonment fee plus alternative path values, predicting threshold-dependent continuation calibrated to empirical persistence rates.^[67] Simulations of this model, using randomized graphs with varying edge costs, replicate observed human overcommitment by tuning the abandonment parameter to match experimental data, such as 20-30% excess investment in failing endeavors.^[67] In neuroeconomic contexts, reinforcement learning (RL) simulations capture sunk cost dynamics through value function approximations that overweight historical rewards, causing agents to undervalue switching despite negative updates. Deep Q-network agents trained on episodic tasks, like grid-world foraging, exhibit fallacy by replaying past high-investment trajectories, with persistence rates increasing 15-25% under irrecoverable cost conditions. Debiasing variants, such as prioritized experience replay excluding sunk-influenced samples, reduce bias by 40% in simulations, aligning agent behavior closer to normative benchmarks while preserving adaptability.^[68] Two-stage stochastic optimization models integrate sunk costs into binary decision problems, where initial investments alter the effective utility landscape for subsequent stages via non-convex constraints. Analytical solutions derive continuation thresholds as functions of sunk magnitude and probabilistic outcomes, with Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000+ scenarios showing fallacy mitigation when utility differentials explicitly discount irrecoverable elements, yielding 10-15% efficiency gains over naive heuristics.^[69] These models, solved via branch-and-bound algorithms, highlight how incomplete foresight amplifies bias in high-dimensional choice spaces.^[69]

Recent Empirical Developments

Studies from 2020 Onward

Recent empirical research on the sunk cost effect has yielded mixed results, with some studies replicating the traditional bias while others document reverse effects or methodological limitations in measurement. In incentivized investment experiments, larger initial sunk costs reduced the probability of continuation, attributed to risk and loss aversion without asset integration, contrasting with hypothetical scenarios where standard sunk cost persistence appeared.^[7] This reverse pattern held across preregistered trials at a behavioral lab, suggesting contextual incentives may override the fallacy in real-stakes decisions.^[7] Vignette-based assessments, commonly used to probe sunk cost susceptibility, exhibit low reliability, with internal consistency coefficients ranging from 0.14 to 0.57 and weak inter-scenario correlations in samples of over 395 participants.^[70] Such findings imply that these measures may capture heterogeneous psychological processes rather than a unified bias, complicating interpretations in neuroimaging and broader sunk cost literature.^[70] Domain-specific variations persist, as replications of prior work showed stronger sunk cost effects for monetary than temporal investments in one scenario (48.2% vs. 13.3% continuation rates), though both domains exhibited effects in another, with no evidence that accounting prompts amplified time-based persistence.^[29] In venture capital data spanning 30,602 decisions from 2009 to 2019, prior capital sunk and monitoring efforts positively predicted follow-on funding, indicating the fallacy's influence moderated by fund maturity factors like available capital.^[5] Individual differences linked to early environments also emerged: lower childhood socioeconomic status correlated with heightened sunk cost adherence across multiple experiments (e.g., ski trip and movie scenarios, N=155–322), mediated by greater perceived wastefulness of abandonment, independent of current SES.^[71] These results, from preregistered behavioral tasks including real-effort surveys, underscore scarcity mindsets' role in perpetuating the effect.^[71] Overall, post-2020 studies highlight the effect's sensitivity to incentives, measurement tools, and personal history, challenging universal characterizations of it as a fallacy.

Reverse Sunk Cost Effects and Variations

The reverse sunk cost effect describes scenarios in which prior irrecoverable investments lead decision-makers to exhibit greater risk aversion or a propensity to abandon ongoing commitments, contrasting with the conventional sunk cost effect that promotes persistence or escalation. This phenomenon has been observed primarily in risky choice paradigms, where sunk costs—particularly non-monetary ones like effort or time—prompt individuals to favor safer options to avoid further potential losses, even when prospective outcomes remain unchanged.^[72]^[73] Empirical evidence for the reverse effect emerged in experiments involving hypothetical gambling decisions. In a 1995 study, participants who incurred behavioral sunk costs (e.g., expending effort to evaluate options) showed increased preference for risk-averse choices, such as accepting a guaranteed payoff over a gamble with equivalent expected value, compared to those without such costs; this held across monetary and non-monetary investment types, suggesting that sunk efforts amplify loss aversion by framing further risks as compounding prior "investments." A follow-up 1997 experiment replicated this, finding that sunk costs heightened regret anticipation for potential losses, thereby driving conservative decisions in mixed-gamble scenarios where the safe option preserved the status quo relative to the sunk outlay.^[72] These findings indicate the effect is not merely cognitive but tied to affective responses like anticipated disappointment.^[34] Variations of the reverse sunk cost effect include distinctions between monetary and behavioral investments, as well as contextual moderators like project scale. Monetary sunk costs sometimes yield weaker or null reverse effects, whereas effort-based costs consistently promote abandonment, potentially because non-financial investments evoke stronger personal agency and self-justification needs.^[74] In investment domains, a 2022 analysis of firm-level data revealed a robust reverse pattern: higher initial sunk expenditures correlated with reduced continuation probabilities, interpreted as rational signaling where large prior commitments indicate higher abandonment thresholds to mitigate escalation risks.^[7] Another variation, termed the "pro rata fallacy," involves proportionally allocating sunk costs to future stages, leading to premature halts if perceived returns do not justify the "honored" past input, as modeled in principal-agent frameworks.^[75] Explanations range from prescriptive rationality—where sunk costs proxy for unobservable quality or commitment signals—to behavioral irrationality rooted in mental accounting errors, though empirical tests favor context-dependent rationality over universal bias.^[76]^[74]

References

[1]
Sunk Cost - Overview, Examples, Fallacy, Applications
A sunk cost is a cost that has already occurred and cannot be recovered by any means. Sunk costs are independent of any event and should not be considered.What is a Sunk Cost? · The Sunk Cost Fallacy · Examples of the Sunk Cost...
[2]
Evaluating the sunk cost effect - ScienceDirect.com
We provide experimental evidence of behavior consistent with the sunk cost effect. Subjects who earned a lottery via a real-effort task were given an ...
[3]
The Sunk Cost Fallacy: A Literature Review and an Empirical Test
Feb 18, 2020 · The sunk cost fallacy results in taking into account unrecoverable past costs in present decision-making. This work aims to study the origins and the main ...
[4]
What Were They Thinking? Reducing Sunk-Cost Bias in a Life-Span ...
A few empirical studies support this idea. Inducing motivation to promote gains reduced sunk-cost bias (Molden & Hui, 2010), as did inducing motivation to focus ...
[5]
The sunk cost fallacy in venture capital staging - ScienceDirect.com
In conclusion, our study contributes novel empirical evidence for the influence of sunk costs when facing follow-on investment decisions in light of financial ...
[6]
The Sunk Cost "Fallacy" Is Not a Fallacy
Summary of each segment:
[7]
Sunk cost in investment decisions - ScienceDirect.com
The sunk cost bias refers to the behavioral tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment has been made, even if it is not optimal to do so (Arkes and ...
[8]
What Is a Sunk Cost—and the Sunk Cost Fallacy? - Investopedia
Feb 27, 2025 · A sunk cost is an expense that cannot be recovered. These types of costs should be excluded from decision-making.What Is a Sunk Cost? · How Sunk Costs Work · The Sunk Cost Fallacy
[9]
Understanding Sunk Costs Can Help Everyday Decision-Making
Nov 3, 2016 · A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. It can't be recovered and therefore shouldn't be a factor in decisions moving forward.
[10]
CUTTING YOUR LOSSES: HOW TO AVOID THE SUNK COST TRAP
This article will describe why leaders have difficulty cutting their losses, and how this mistake can be extremely costly, particularly in a volatile ...
[11]
The psychology of sunk cost - ScienceDirect.com
The sunk cost effect is the tendency to continue an endeavor after an investment, to avoid appearing wasteful. People also inflate success estimates after ...
[12]
The psychology of sunk cost. - APA PsycNet
The sunk cost effect is the tendency to continue an endeavor after an investment, to avoid appearing wasteful. People also inflate the likelihood of success ...
[13]
(PDF) The psychology of sunk cost - ResearchGate
Aug 6, 2025 · This cognitive bias refers to the tendency to continue investing in a task or decision due to prior investments (e.g., time or effort), even ...
[14]
1.2 Opportunity Costs & Sunk Costs – Principles of Microeconomics
Understand how sunk costs influence our decision making ... An important part of being a rational decision maker is considering opportunity costs.Missing: bygones | Show results with:bygones
[15]
Considering Sunk Costs in Decision-Making - Econlib
May 14, 2023 · To have sunk cost fallacy, you have to make an irrational, suboptimal decision based on your prior investments. This case is obviously the ...Missing: bygones | Show results with:bygones
[16]
[PDF] PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS 2e
Sunk cost fallacy: people and firms alike sometimes weight sunk costs in ... ○ Bygones principle: ignore the past errors and make decisions based on ...<|separator|>
[17]
The Sunk Cost Fallacy - The Decision Lab
The sunk cost fallacy means that we are making irrational decisions because we are factoring in influences other than the current alternatives. This fallacy ...Missing: empirical | Show results with:empirical
[18]
The Sunk Cost Fallacy - Economics Declassified
Oct 9, 2020 · A sunk cost is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. In other words, a sunk cost is an expense from the past that is no ...
[19]
How to Recognize Sunk Costs - Investopedia
Prospective costs have not yet been incurred but will be in the future. ... In a strictly economic sense, a rational person ignores sunk costs and only considers ...
[20]
Sunk Cost: Definition and Examples - Tempo Software
The opposite of a sunk cost is a prospective cost. Prospective costs are future expenses or investments that have not yet been incurred. Unlike sunk costs, ...
[21]
Sunk cost – Knowledge and References - Taylor & Francis
In traditional economic theory, only prospective (future) costs are relevant to an investment decision. Sunk costs should not influence a decision, because ...
[22]
Bygones Definition & Examples - Quickonomics
Apr 6, 2024 · Definition of Bygones Sunk costs are expenses that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered. The bygones principle suggests that ...
[23]
Continuation Bias | SKYbrary Aviation Safety
Definition (Plan) Continuation Bias is the unconscious cognitive bias to continue with the original plan in spite of changing conditions.
[24]
Commitment Bias (Escalation of commitment) - The Decision Lab
Sunk cost fallacy is a form of commitment bias. It refers to how we feel the need to follow through with something once we've invested time and/or money into it ...
[25]
Knee-deep in the big muddy: a study of escalating commitment to a ...
The research presented here examined this process of escalating commitment through the simulation of a business investment decision.
[26]
Escalating commitment to a failing course of action
In contrast to Heath (1995), he reports that sunk costs increase the decision maker's willingness to continue along an unprofitable course of action. Martens ...
[27]
[PDF] Sunk Cost Effects of Time and Effort - University of Idaho
Early work on sunk cost effects postulated that the error would occur if a decision maker had previously invested money, time, or effort (Arkes & Blumer, 1985).<|separator|>
[28]
On the sunk-cost effect in economic decision-making: a meta ...
Sep 19, 2014 · This article presents the results of a meta-analytic review of 98 effect sizes of the sunk-cost effect, with special emphasis on the decision-specific ...
[29]
Sunk Cost Effects for Time Versus Money: Replication and ...
Nov 28, 2023 · The sunk cost effect is the tendency for an individual's decision making to be impacted by unrecoverable previous investments of resources.
[30]
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3207806
[31]
Sunk-cost fallacy and cognitive ability in individual decision-making
In fact, the connection between loss aversion and the sunk-cost fallacy was ... Cognitive biases in MCDM methods: an embedded filter proposal through ...
[32]
Persisting on the Past: Cross-sectional and Prospective ... - NIH
The sunk cost bias is generally thought to be a trait-like tendency that primarily occurs due to overgeneralization of two normally adaptive rules: namely, “ ...
[33]
A New Inaction-Effect Perspective on the Sunk-Cost Fallacy - NIH
Escalation-of-commitment situations involve sunk costs, negative feedback, and a decision between proceeding and withdrawing (for a review, see Brockner, 1992; ...
[34]
The role of affective reaction in the sunk-cost fallacy - PMC - NIH
Jan 8, 2019 · Experimental evidence and theorizing suggested that the sunk-cost effect is driven by negative feelings caused by the prospect of having ...
[35]
Loss Aversion as a Potential Factor in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy - NIH
The sunk-cost fallacy (SCF) occurs when an individual makes an investment with a low probability of a payoff because an earlier investment was made.Missing: empirical | Show results with:empirical
[36]
The Social Fabric of Sunk Costs: The Role of Social Norms in the Sunk Cost Fallacy
### Abstract
[37]
The Interpersonal Sunk-Cost Effect - PubMed
The present research demonstrates that it is also an interpersonal effect (ie, people will alter their choices in response to other people's past investments).
[38]
Harm to others reduces the sunk-cost effect | Memory & Cognition
Nov 9, 2020 · In three experiments, we examine the SCE when continued investment violates the ethic of care by harming others.<|control11|><|separator|>
[39]
Culture-related factors affect sunk cost bias. - APA PsycNet
Reasoning and decision-making are fraught with systematic errors in thinking. One key example is sunk cost, a past investment that cannot be recovered, ...
[40]
[PDF] Sunk Cost Effect, Self-control, and Contract Design
Jul 11, 2023 · This paper examines the role of the sunk cost effect as a commitment device in mitigating the self-control problem and analyzes its implications ...
[41]
Apparent sunk cost effect in rational agents - PMC - NIH
Choices by rational agents can appear to reflect sunk costs, pointing to a need for causal analysis in assessing cognitive biases.
[42]
Rethinking the Sunk Cost Fallacy : Why Perseverance Pays Off
Oct 29, 2021 · The underlying principle behind the fallacy is that sunk costs, which are past and unrecoverable, should not impact future decisions. However, ...
[43]
The strategic implications of sunk costs: A behavioral perspective
This paper examines some of the strategic implications of the sunk cost phenomenon in sequential allocation decisions.Missing: devices | Show results with:devices
[44]
Sunk Costs and Political Decision Making
### Summary of Empirical Evidence on Sunk Cost Effects in Political Decision Making
[45]
How Sunk Costs Affect Firms' Investment Decisions
Jan 23, 2023 · “Excessive commitment triggered by sunk costs generates substantial real effects and erodes firm performance,” the paper stated. The distortions ...<|separator|>
[46]
Was the Concorde project an example of the sunk-cost fallacy?
Oct 8, 2017 · The Concorde project is often cited as a sunk-cost fallacy example, but no evidence was found that officials used sunk costs to justify it. A ...
[47]
Escalation of Commitment: The Downfall of Failing Strategies
Real estate: examples of companies that have experienced escalation of commitment include Blockbuster and Kodak. Technology: case studies of companies ...Key Takeaways · Understanding Escalation of... · Psychological Factors...
[48]
DO DECISION-MAKING PROFESSIONALS COMMIT THE SUNK ...
Nov 3, 2023 · This study found that the selected professional decision makers committed the sunk cost fallacy, and that the amount (or size) of the sunk cost was a major ...
[49]
Loss Aversion | Definition + Investing Bias Example - Wall Street Prep
Sunk Cost Fallacy ➝ The tendency to continue investing in failing projects due to past investments is partly driven by loss aversion. The difficulty in ...
[50]
A dark side of hope: Understanding why investors cling onto losing ...
Oct 4, 2022 · This phenomenon is part of the disposition effect (“people ride losers too long, and sell winners too soon”). The current research examines the ...<|separator|>
[51]
US Involvement in the Vietnam War: the Gulf of Tonkin
The Gulf of Tonkin incident and the subsequent Gulf of Tonkin resolution provided the justification for further U.S. escalation of the conflict in Vietnam.Missing: commitment | Show results with:commitment
[52]
LBJ's 1965 Decision to Escalate the Vietnam War
Feb 20, 2016 · ... involvement over a number of years, and only one advisor urging complete withdrawal, Johnson chose to continue the commitments made by past presidents.
[53]
The Long-Term Costs of United States Care for Veterans of the ...
Aug 18, 2021 · Long after the post-9/11 wars end, the largest single long-term cost of these wars will be benefits and medical care for the men and women who ...
[54]
https://wilpf.org/militarism-and-afghanistan-costs-and-profits/
[55]
The US decision to withdraw from Afghanistan is the right one
Apr 15, 2021 · The Biden administration's decision to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021 is a wise strategic choice that took significant political ...
[56]
The Strategic Logic of a Forever War - Foreign Policy
Sep 8, 2021 · The Strategic Logic of a Forever War. The United States should have ignored sunk costs in Afghanistan and maintained a light military footprint.
[57]
[PDF] Federal Government Cost Overruns | Cato Institute
Sep 9, 2015 · This essay looks at the causes of cost overruns, and examines some of the budget areas that have the most serious problems, including defense, ...
[58]
The Sunk Cost Fallacy in Government Projects - Public Spend Forum
Aug 9, 2017 · It is not unusual to find examples of the “sunk cost” fallacy in government procurement projects. That fallacy relates to our feeling that how ...
[59]
An fMRI study of decision-making under sunk costs in gambling ...
Sep 20, 2018 · Previous studies and clinical observations suggest that decision-making under sunk costs is altered in gambling disorder (GD).Missing: relationships consumption peer- reviewed
[60]
Neural mechanisms and personality correlates of the sunk cost effect
Sep 9, 2016 · The sunk cost effect is the tendency to continue an investment, or take an action, even though it has higher future costs than benefits, if ...
[61]
Goal commitment is supported by vmPFC through selective attention
Apr 17, 2024 · It is well known that people tend to overpersist with chosen goals (the 'sunk-cost' fallacy). Rather than representing persistence biases as ...
[62]
Patients with prefrontal damage less susceptible to sunk cost biases
May 28, 2024 · Damage to the very same vmPFC region found in the MRI study was linked to having lower sunk cost biases compared to patients with brain damage ...
[63]
Stanford Medicine study reveals why we value things more when ...
Nov 27, 2023 · “Because dopamine reinforces previous behaviors, it may reflect sunk costs,” he said. “The dopamine release we saw may enable you to pay those ...
[64]
Sunk cost effects hinge on the neural recalibration of reference ...
... marginal costs and benefits. Among other factors, sunk cost may ... Sunk costs and sunk benefits: a re-examination of re-investment decisions. Br ...
[65]
Sensitivity to “sunk costs” in mice, rats, and humans | Science
Jul 13, 2018 · The sunk cost fallacy, by definition, arises from valuing spent resources that cannot be recovered. Our data finds that these sunk costs only ...
[66]
Apparent sunk cost effect in rational agents | Science Advances
Feb 11, 2022 · The sunk cost fallacy is a prominent cognitive bias, valuing an option more highly because of the resources already invested in it, instead of ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[67]
[PDF] Stochastic Model for Sunk Cost Bias*
The agent's sunk cost bias is modeled by a cost that it incurs for abandoning the traversal: if the agent decides to stop traversing the graph, it incurs a cost ...Missing: learning | Show results with:learning
[68]
https://openreview.net/forum?id=VzC3BAd9gf
[69]
A Revisit to Sunk Cost Fallacy for Two-Stage Stochastic Binary ...
This paper undertakes a revisit of the sunk cost fallacy, which refers to the tendency of people to persist investing resources into something, even if it is ...
[70]
On the Low Reliability of Sunk Cost Vignettes - PMC - PubMed Central
Jul 28, 2025 · Sunk cost bias—the tendency to continue investing in failing endeavours based on prior investments—represents one of the most studied biases in ...
[71]
The impact of childhood environments on the sunk‐cost fallacy
Oct 28, 2022 · This fallacy occurs because individuals with lower childhood socioeconomic status tend to perceive the loss of their prior investments as more wasteful.
[72]
A reverse sunk cost effect in risky decision making - ScienceDirect.com
The sunk cost effect refers to the empirical finding that people tend to let their decisions be influenced by costs made at an earlier time.
[73]
A reverse sunk cost effect in risky decision making - APA PsycNet
A reverse sunk cost effect in risky decision making: Sometimes we have too much invested to gamble. Journal of Economic Psychology, 18(6), 677–691. https ...
[74]
Behavioral and Prescriptive Explanations of a Reverse Sunk Cost ...
Behavioral and Prescriptive Explanations of a Reverse Sunk Cost Effect ... These decisions are evaluated from the perspectives of both behavioral and prescriptive ...
[75]
The Sunk Cost "Fallacy" Is Not a Fallacy - University of Michigan
Very roughly: you commit the sunk cost fallacy when you let unrecoverable costs influence your current decision-making. ... In addition to this empirical evidence ...
[76]
The reverse sunk cost effect and explanation: rational and irrational
Evidence that the psychological justification for this behavior is predicated on the desire not to appear wasteful is presented.