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THESEUS

THESEUS (Transient High-Energy Sky and Early Universe Surveyor) is a space mission proposed to the (ESA) to detect and study high-energy transients, particularly gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), to probe the early universe and advance multi-messenger astronomy. The mission aims to provide a substantial increase in the discovery space for GRBs up to z ≈ 10, enabling studies of the first billion years after the , including cosmic dawn and eras. It features a consisting of a Soft Imager (SXI, 0.3–5 keV), an X and Gamma-ray Imaging Spectrometer (XGIS, 2 keV–20 MeV), and an (IRT, 0.7–1.8 μm) for follow-up observations. Selected in 2023 as one of three candidates for ESA's M7 medium-class science mission, is undergoing Phase A studies as of October 2025, with a potential launch in the early via Vega-C from into a low-Earth orbit at approximately 600 km altitude.

Overview

Mission Concept

THESEUS, the Transient High-Energy Sky and Early Universe Surveyor, is a proposed medium-class (M-class) mission under the European Space Agency's (ESA) programme. As of 2025, it is undergoing Phase A studies following selection for assessment in 2023 as a candidate for the M7 opportunity. The mission is designed to detect and characterize gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and other high-energy transients across a wide energy range from 0.3 keV to 20 MeV, complemented by near-infrared observations. The mission aims to provide a complete of the GRB population, including those at very high redshifts (z > 6), to probe the era and early in the universe. A key innovation of THESEUS lies in its role as a wide-field transient detector with real-time triggering and localization capabilities, enabling rapid follow-up of multi-messenger events such as and detections from other observatories. This approach will facilitate synergies with ground- and space-based telescopes, allowing for prompt multi-wavelength observations that enhance the understanding of transient phenomena across the . Originally proposed in in response to ESA's call for M5 concepts, the baseline profile envisions a launch around 2032, assuming selection as ESA's M7 , followed by nominal operations lasting four years in a low-Earth (LEO) at approximately 600 km altitude with a low inclination of less than 5 degrees. THESEUS emphasizes investigations into the cosmic dawn and through high-redshift GRBs, marking a significant advancement in time-domain and multi-messenger .

Key Specifications

THESEUS is equipped with wide-field instruments enabling monitoring of approximately 1 steradian in the soft X-ray band (0.3–5 keV) via the Soft X-ray Imager (SXI), achieving localization accuracy of less than 2 arcminutes for detected transients. This configuration supports sensitivity to gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) at redshifts up to z=10 with fluences exceeding 10^{-8} erg/cm², facilitating the detection of faint, high-redshift events critical for early universe studies. The mission's energy coverage extends from 0.3 keV to 20 MeV, combining the SXI (0.3–5 keV) and X and Gamma-ray Imaging Spectrometer (XGIS; 2 keV–20 MeV). Complementing this, the Infrared Telescope (IRT) operates in the 0.7–1.8 μm range, featuring a 0.7 m aperture and angular resolution of approximately 1 arcsecond, allowing rapid follow-up photometry and spectroscopy of transients. Onboard systems provide autonomy for transient detection, classification, and alert triggering, with data downlink capabilities reaching up to 1 Mbps via ground stations. The total spacecraft dry mass is about 1900 kg, with average power consumption around 2 kW to support operations. Designed for near-complete sky coverage every 4 hours through its large field of regard and scanning strategies, THESEUS is projected to detect roughly 100 GRBs annually, including 10–20 at high redshifts (z ≥ 6).

Development History

Initial Proposal

The THESEUS mission concept emerged between 2014 and 2016 through efforts by an international consortium led by the Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF), with major contributions from the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the , the , and institutions across Europe including , the , , and others. This collaboration, involving over 100 scientists, sought to advance the study of high-energy transients and the early universe by building on lessons from prior missions while addressing emerging scientific needs. In 2018, the consortium submitted the THESEUS proposal as a candidate for the European Space Agency's (ESA) M5 mission call under the Cosmic Vision programme, motivated by the limitations of existing observatories like NASA's Swift and Fermi in detecting and characterizing high-redshift (high-z) transients, particularly gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) beyond redshift z ≈ 5. The proposal highlighted the mission's potential to fill these gaps through enhanced sensitivity, localization, and follow-up capabilities for faint, distant events. The initial science case positioned GRBs as multi-wavelength probes of cosmic dawn, the history of star formation, and the emergence of the first black holes, with THESEUS designed to enable rapid coordination with ground- and space-based telescopes such as the (JWST) and the (ELT) for detailed afterglow studies. A foundational white paper, led by INAF's Lorenzo Amati and published in 2017 ahead of the M5 submission, framed the mission as a "time machine" to the epoch of reionization at redshifts z=6-10, projecting detection of 30-80 such high-z GRBs over three years and estimating development costs at approximately 500 million euros.

ESA Selection and Studies

THESEUS was initially proposed as a for ESA's fifth medium-class mission (M5) under the program, undergoing a Phase A study from to 2021, but it was not selected, with chosen instead in June 2021. Following this, the mission concept was re-proposed for the seventh medium-class mission (M7) opportunity within ESA's Voyage 2050 framework. In 2022, THESEUS was selected for a Phase 0 study completed in 2023, which refined the proposal ahead of further evaluation. In November 2023, ESA's Science Programme Committee downselected to one of three finalists for the M7 slot, alongside M-MATISSE and the Plasma Observatory, advancing it to a full Phase A . This 2.5-year Phase A, initiated in early 2024 and led by ESA in collaboration with an international consortium of European institutions, focuses on detailed feasibility assessment, including technical risks, cost estimates, and implementation plans. As of March 2025, remains one of three finalists (alongside M-MATISSE and the Plasma Observatory) under detailed study in the ongoing A, expected to conclude in mid-2026, with a Selection Review anticipated around that time to evaluate the candidates. If adopted, formal approval could follow by 2027, initiating B development, supported by contributions from ESA member states including the (ASI) for technology elements.

Scientific Objectives

Gamma-Ray Burst Detection

The THESEUS mission employs real-time detection strategies centered on its wide-field monitoring instruments to identify (GRBs) as primary scientific targets. The Soft X-ray Imager (SXI) serves as the initial trigger for soft transients across a ~0.5 field of view in the 0.3–5 keV energy band, utilizing lobster-eye optics for and onboard algorithms to detect rapid variability indicative of GRB prompt emission or early phases. Upon SXI detection, the X/Gamma-ray Spectrometer (XGIS) provides confirmatory and in the 2 keV–10 MeV range, extending sensitivity to harder photons (>100 keV) for comprehensive prompt emission coverage, with a fully coded of >2 . This layered approach enables autonomous onboard triggering within tens of seconds, minimizing data loss for fast-fading events like short GRBs. Characterization of detected GRBs occurs through rapid onboard processing, achieving localization accuracy of 0.5–2 arcmin (for SXI) at the 90% confidence level, sufficient for immediate follow-up by the Infrared Telescope (IRT). Spectral analysis via XGIS enables modeling of prompt emission mechanisms, such as in relativistic jets, while joint SXI-XGIS data facilitate decomposition of thermal and non-thermal components across the 0.3 keV–10 MeV bandpass. Redshift estimation leverages IRT observations of GRB afterglows, targeting Lyman-α absorption features in the 0.7–1.8 μm near-infrared window to probe intervening intergalactic medium absorption, with photometric accuracy of ~10% for z ≈ 6–10 and spectroscopic confirmation for z > 5.5. The mission's sensitivity targets both short GRBs, associated with mergers, and long GRBs, linked to massive star collapsars, with detection thresholds enabling observations up to z ≈ 20 for events with isotropic-equivalent energies E_iso ≳ 10^{53} erg. Over a nominal 3–5 year lifetime (as proposed for the ESA M7 candidate mission in Phase A study as of 2025), THESEUS is projected to detect ~10-12 short GRBs and ~480 long GRBs annually, yielding ~10-15 events at z > 5 per year and enabling population studies of ~40–80 high-z (z > 6) GRBs total, including rare probes of . These statistics will allow statistical analyses of GRB functions, rate evolution, and environments across . The mission objectives include synergies with facilities like JWST and ELT for deep follow-up. A key application involves using GRB afterglows to measure dust in host galaxies and the intergalactic medium, particularly at high redshifts where features shift into the near-infrared. By fitting multi-wavelength spectra, THESEUS can quantify dust column densities and curves, revealing metal enrichment . This ties into cosmological measurements, where the d_L to a GRB at redshift z is given by d_L = (1 + z) \int_0^z \frac{c \, dz'}{H(z')}, derived from the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker metric under the assumption of a flat ; here, c is the and H(z') is the Hubble parameter at z', allowing flux-based constraints on cosmic expansion when combined with GRB s.

Early Universe Probes

will utilize long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) as luminous beacons to probe the epoch of in the early , spanning redshifts z = 6 to $10, corresponding to approximately 900 million to 480 million years after the . By analyzing the features in GRB afterglow spectra, the mission aims to measure the ionization state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) through statistics of neutral (Lyα) and metal lines, enabling constraints on the neutral fraction and the sources driving . Expected to detect 20–50 GRBs at z = 7–9 over its nominal mission lifetime, will provide a sample size sufficient to map the evolution of ionized bubbles and UV photon escape fractions from early galaxies, surpassing current datasets limited to fewer than 10 such events from past missions. In probing the formation of the first stars and galaxies, will leverage of GRB host galaxies to trace evolution, revealing how Population III (metal-poor) stars transitioned to Population II, and their role in initiating cosmic metal enrichment and . At redshifts z > 6, GRB afterglows will illuminate host environments with metallicities as low as Z < 0.1 \, Z_\odot, allowing measurements of star formation rates (SFRs) with accuracy better than 1 magnitude in the galaxy luminosity function cutoff. This will link GRB occurrences to the initial mass function and feedback processes of primordial stars, providing insights into the end of the cosmic dark ages beyond the reach of current facilities like JWST. For dark energy and cosmology, THESEUS will construct a high-redshift GRB Hubble diagram using the peak isotropic luminosity versus redshift relation, calibrated with lower-z samples, to measure the Hubble constant H_0 to ≤1% precision with ≥15–25 events and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter w (parameterized as w = w_0 + w_a (1+z)). The luminosity distance d_L(z) is derived from the comoving distance \chi(z) = \int_0^z c \, dz' / H(z'), where d_L(z) = (1+z) \chi(z), assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology with Hubble parameter H(z) = H_0 \sqrt{\Omega_m (1+z)^3 + \Omega_\Lambda} (with \Omega_m + \Omega_\Lambda = 1, negligible radiation at these epochs, and no curvature). This integral form enables direct fitting of GRB data to constrain H_0, \Omega_m, and dark energy parameters, independent of local distance ladder biases. Additionally, THESEUS holds potential to detect signatures of the first massive black holes through ultra-long GRBs (durations >10,000 seconds), which may arise from the collapse of metal-poor supermassive stars, complementing gravitational wave observations from LISA by providing electromagnetic counterparts to binary black hole mergers in the early universe.

Mission Design

Orbit and Operations

The THESEUS mission will operate in a near-equatorial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at an altitude of 550–640 km (nominal 600 km) with an inclination of 5.4°. This configuration leverages the Earth's magnetic field to provide a low and stable radiation background, facilitating efficient detection of high-energy transients across a wide field of regard exceeding 50% of the sky while minimizing exposure to the South Atlantic Anomaly, which affects approximately 15% of each orbit. The orbital period is approximately 96.7 minutes, enabling near-continuous monitoring with controlled altitude maintenance to ensure re-entry within 25 years post-mission. Mission operations emphasize autonomous on-board processing for transient detection and response, featuring daily sky surveys in Survey Mode where the Soft X-ray Imager (SXI) and X-Gamma-ray Spectrometer (XGIS) scan large sky areas (~1 sr and ~2–4 sr, respectively) to identify gamma-ray bursts and other events. Upon trigger validation—using rate- and image-search algorithms with false alarm rates of about 1–2 per week—the autonomously transitions to Burst Mode for detailed , followed by slews to Follow-up, , or Modes for InfraRed Telescope (IRT) observations lasting 12.5–30 minutes or longer. A rapid alert system broadcasts trigger times and positions via a Trigger Broadcasting Unit over VHF antennas, reaching ground stations within tens of seconds (≤30 s for 65% of alerts), enabling real-time notifications to telescopes like the (VLT) and (JWST) for multi-messenger follow-up. The prime mission duration is 4 years (3.45 years of net science operations), with a planned 2-year extension, encompassing phases of launch and early (~7 days), commissioning (3 months), and (2 months), and nominal operations managed by ESA's Operations Centre. activities include periodic in-flight checks every 6 months using bright sources such as the for XGIS and known stars or planetary nebulae for the IRT, ensuring background stability within 10% over 10-minute intervals critical for burst detection. from the ~60 Gbit/day telemetry stream will be processed at Level 0 by ESA's Operations Centre (SOC) at ESAC, with higher levels (1–3) handled by the Science Centre (SDC) in , followed by public release via the ESAC archive after proprietary periods (e.g., 6 months for high-redshift GRBs). Pointing accuracy is specified at ≤2 arcminutes for the SXI and <15 arcminutes for the XGIS at trigger, improving to arcsecond-level for the IRT post-processing, supported by a slew rate >7° per minute for autonomous reorientation within ~10 minutes. is mitigated through dedicated shielding and selection, which reduces and solar particle exposure while monitoring via a Neutron/Gamma-Ray Monitor, ensuring reliability over the 5-year lifetime including extension.

Spacecraft Architecture

The spacecraft employs a modular, 3-axis stabilized bus design consisting of a service module and payload module, derived from established platforms used in missions. This box-shaped architecture ensures compatibility with the launch vehicle, featuring an aluminum and carbon fiber reinforced polymer structure for lightweight construction and thermal stability. The overall configuration supports autonomous operations, including transient detection, trigger validation, and rapid slewing to position targets within the telescope's , with a field of regard covering approximately 60% of the sky. Key subsystems include a system utilizing monopropellant stored in four 96-liter tanks, providing a delta-V of 270 m/s primarily for orbit maintenance in . Power is generated by arrays spanning 13-16 m², delivering up to 1633 with a 30% margin, complemented by batteries and a 28 V unregulated bus to support continuous operations. Communications rely on an S-band system for omnidirectional and command links, with an X-band downlink capable of 8.3 Mbps for science data transmission, supplemented by a VHF transmitter for near-real-time to ground networks. Payload accommodation centers on integrating the instruments within the payload module, with a total instrument mass of approximately 340 kg, including housings for the soft X-ray imagers, X/Gamma-ray imaging spectrometer, and infrared telescope focal plane assembly. The design positions the instruments for optimal field-of-view overlap, such as co-alignment between the soft X-ray and infrared components, while incorporating dedicated data handling units for synergy. Thermal management features active cooling systems, notably pulse-tube cryocoolers maintaining the infrared detector at 118 K, alongside radiators and thermoelectric coolers for other detectors to ensure performance in the radiation environment of low Earth orbit, where geomagnetic shielding limits proton exposure.

Scientific Payload

SXI Instruments

The Soft X-ray Imager (SXI) units form the wide-field imaging subsystem of the THESEUS mission's scientific payload, designed to provide high-sensitivity soft X-ray observations of transient events. Comprising two identical modules, each SXI unit features a 300 mm and utilizes Micro Pore Optics (MPO) arrays to focus X-rays in the 0.3-5 keV energy band across a broad 0.5 sr (FOV). This configuration enables simultaneous monitoring of large sky areas while maintaining focusing capabilities superior to traditional collimated detectors, facilitating precise localization of sources. Performance specifications of the SXI emphasize its role in transient detection, with a source location accuracy of ≤2 arcmin (99% confidence), allowing source positions to be determined to sub-arcminute accuracy under optimal conditions. The effective area peaks at about 1 keV, providing sufficient for detecting faint afterglows and precursors, while the 100 ms time supports high-cadence to capture rapid variability in X-ray emissions from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and other phenomena. These metrics position SXI as a key enabler for follow-up observations in multi-wavelength campaigns. The SXI units feature a compact lobster-eye suitable for launch constraints, with based on advanced Micro Pore Optics assemblies ensuring robustness against launch vibrations and achieving the required optical alignment. The SXI units were developed by an international led by the in the , building on heritage from missions like SVOM and to validate the lobster-eye for space applications; this background has proven instrumental in enabling the detection of GRB precursors and afterglows with unprecedented wide-field efficiency. As of 2025, the instruments are under development during the Phase A study.

XGIS Detector

The X and Gamma-ray Imaging Spectrometer (XGIS) is a key component of the mission's scientific payload, designed to provide high-sensitivity spectroscopy and imaging in the medium-to-hard and gamma-ray bands. It consists of two identical wide-field cameras, each featuring an array of 8 Drift Detectors (SDDs) sensitive in the 2-30 keV range, optically coupled to CsI(Tl) bars extending coverage to >30 keV up to 10 MeV. This hybrid detector configuration enables precise energy measurements across a broad , with events in the SDDs providing photoelectric for lower energies and in the CsI(Tl) for higher energies. A coded-mask , implemented with a mask and , allows for imaging of transient sources like gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) by modulating incoming radiation patterns. Performance specifications of XGIS emphasize its role in detecting faint transients with minimal background . The SDDs achieve an energy resolution of ≤1200 eV FWHM at 6 keV, while the scintillators provide resolution ≤6% FWHM at 500 keV, enabling detailed spectral analysis of GRB afterglows and other high-energy phenomena. The instrument's is approximately 2 for partially coded imaging (77×77 degrees² in 15–150 keV), with a fully coded FOV of ~0.02 , and a point-source sensitivity sufficient for localizing GRBs to arcminute precision within seconds (>10⁻⁸ erg/cm²/s at 1 s, 3σ in 2–30 keV). These capabilities position XGIS as an effective monitor for rapid follow-up, complementing the soft X-ray coverage from SXI to achieve seamless multi-band observations of transients. As of 2025, the instruments are under development during the Phase A . Technologically, XGIS incorporates low-noise readout application-specific integrated circuits (), such as the series, to handle the high data rates from thousands of detector elements while maintaining signal integrity. An anticoincidence shield surrounds the detection plane to reject charged-particle backgrounds, enhancing signal-to-noise ratios in the space environment. The total mass of the XGIS system is approximately 162 kg. Developed by the for (INAF) at the for Space Astrophysics and Planetology (IAPS), with significant contributions from the Bologna branch of INAF (IASF-Bologna), the instrument has undergone calibration to explore potential, particularly for probing magnetic fields in GRB jets through asymmetry.

IRT Telescope

The InfraRed Telescope (IRT) is a near-infrared instrument on the THESEUS mission, designed primarily for the rapid identification and characterization of optical/near-infrared counterparts to high-energy transients, such as (GRB) afterglows, enabling autonomous photometric and spectroscopic measurements to confirm distances and identify host galaxies at high s (z > 6). It operates in synergy with the mission's X- and gamma-ray detectors by providing follow-up observations within minutes of a , supporting the localization of sources to arcsecond precision and the detection of faint afterglows for estimation via the break or spectral features. This capability is crucial for probing the early , as the IRT can measure s for approximately 40 long GRBs per year at z ≥ 6, with photometric accuracy better than 10%. As of 2025, the instruments are under development during the Phase A study. The IRT features an off-axis Korsch telescope design with a 0.7 m diameter primary mirror made of (), providing a of 6188 mm and a collecting area exceeding 0.34 m². The focal plane instrument consists of a Teledyne H2RG CMOS-based HgCdTe detector array with 2048 × 2048 at 18 μm pitch, achieving a plate scale of 0.3 arcsec/, and supports imaging in five filters (I, Z, Y, J, H) across a of 0.7–1.8 μm for photometry and 0.8–1.6 μm for . The field of view is 15 × 15 arcmin² (0.25 deg²) in photometric mode, allowing coverage of the uncertainty regions from the mission's wide-field instruments, while spectroscopic observations use slit-less configurations over a smaller 2 × 2 arcmin² field. Performance specifications enable detection of GRB afterglows down to a limiting magnitude of 20.4–20.9 mag (AB, 5σ in 150–300 s exposure) in imaging mode, sufficient for identifying counterparts brighter than H = 19.5 mag (AB) in ~90% of known cases, and supporting kilonova detection out to 320 Mpc with exposures up to 600 s. In spectroscopic mode, it achieves a resolving power R ≥ 400 at 1.1 μm with 1800 s exposures, reaching a limiting magnitude of 17.5 mag (H, SNR=3), which allows extraction of redshift, neutral hydrogen column density (N_H), and metallicity from afterglow spectra for high-z events. The system includes an on-board calibration unit for monitoring detector health, ensuring reliable spectrophotometric calibration using emission lines from planetary nebulae, performed every ~6 months. The IRT employs active cooling via miniature pulse tube cryo-coolers to maintain the detector at 120 and the filter wheel at 160 , with the telescope structure passively held at ~240 to minimize and enable sensitivity to faint, high-z sources. Fine guidance is provided by high-precision star trackers integrated into the focal plane assembly, achieving astrometric accuracy of <5 arcsec in near-real time and sub-arcsecond source localization. This supports autonomous operations, including on-board computation of redshifts using pre-loaded Gaia and Euclid catalogs, rapid slewing (≤10 minutes for 50% of triggers), and target acquisition following SXI instrument alerts, without ground intervention. Development of the IRT is led by the French consortium (CEA-Irfu, LAM, IRAP, GEPI, CNES), with contributions from Swiss institutions including the Geneva Observatory, which hosts the mission coordination site. The design draws heritage from the Euclid NISP instrument for SiC structures and NIR detector technology, as well as Hubble's WFC3 for slit-less spectroscopy techniques, optimizing the IRT specifically for the transient nature of GRB afterglows at z = 6–10 by prioritizing speed, sensitivity, and autonomy over broad-sky surveys.

Expected Scientific Impact

Multi-Messenger Astronomy

THESEUS is designed to play a pivotal role in multi-messenger astronomy by providing rapid electromagnetic (EM) observations that complement detections of gravitational waves (GWs) and neutrinos from transient events. The mission's primary contribution lies in its ability to detect and localize gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), particularly short GRBs associated with neutron star (NS) mergers, serving as EM counterparts to GW signals from detectors like LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA. By issuing alerts for these events, THESEUS enables timely follow-up observations to identify kilonovae and other optical/infrared signatures, facilitating joint analyses that probe the physics of compact object mergers. In synergy with neutrino observatories such as , THESEUS supports the search for high-energy neutrino counterparts to GRB-like transients, including those with extended emission potentially linked to neutrino production in relativistic jets. The mission's instruments, including the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission () and the Infrared Telescope (), allow for sub-degree localization—typically better than 15 arcminutes initially, refined to arcsecond precision—enabling EM counterpart identification within hours of a GW or neutrino trigger. This capability is expected to yield 5–10 joint multi-messenger events per year, depending on the sensitivity of next-generation GW detectors like the and , significantly enhancing the sample size for such studies. Key science cases enabled by THESEUS include testing models of GRB jets in the context of NS mergers, where rapid multi-wavelength coverage reveals jet launching mechanisms and collimation properties through light curve evolution and spectral features. Additionally, by capturing multi-wavelength light curves of kilonovae and associated GRBs, the mission will constrain the equation of state of neutron star matter, providing insights into the dense nuclear physics governing merger remnants via comparisons between EM and GW data. These investigations leverage THESEUS's near-real-time alerting system, which transmits positions and basic event parameters within tens of seconds. To maximize these synergies, THESEUS incorporates protocols for time-domain networking with ground-based facilities such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory/Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST/VRO) and the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), utilizing standardized alert formats compatible with systems like VOEvents for seamless integration and automated follow-up. This infrastructure ensures coordinated observations across messengers, from gamma rays to very-high-energy gamma rays and optical bands, amplifying the mission's impact in the era of multi-messenger transients.

Cosmological Insights

The THESEUS mission is expected to provide stringent constraints on dark energy by leveraging gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) as standard candles to measure luminosity distances d_L(z) up to redshift z \approx 10. By detecting and characterizing approximately 800 GRBs with precise redshifts, THESEUS will enable the construction of a high-redshift Hubble diagram, significantly refining estimates of the dark energy density parameter \Omega_\Lambda and the equation-of-state parameter w. Simulations indicate that this sample will yield \Omega_m = 0.24 \pm 0.08 and w = -0.92 \pm 0.30 in a flat wCDM model, representing a substantial improvement in precision over existing GRB-based constraints, potentially by a factor of approximately 2 when combined with complementary datasets. These measurements will extend probes of the cosmic expansion history beyond z \sim 2, complementing surveys like Euclid and offering tests of dark energy evolution. To address the Hubble tension, THESEUS will facilitate an independent measurement of the Hubble constant H_0 using low-redshift GRBs (z < 1), employing a model-independent analysis based on the E_\mathrm{peak}-L_\mathrm{iso} correlation: \log L_\mathrm{iso} = a + b \log E_\mathrm{peak} + c(1+z). This correlation, calibrated with nearby GRBs, allows distance estimates without assuming a specific cosmology, providing a check against discrepancies between local (e.g., Cepheid) and early-universe (e.g., CMB) H_0 values. With its enhanced sensitivity, THESEUS is projected to identify dozens of suitable low-z events, enabling H_0 determinations with uncertainties potentially below 5%, aiding resolution of the tension. Aggregate GRB rates observed by THESEUS will map the star formation history across cosmic time, linking it to \LambdaCDM simulations of galaxy evolution. Long GRBs, tracing massive star formation in low-metallicity environments, will yield star formation rate densities with precision better than 1 magnitude in the galaxy luminosity function cutoff, particularly at z > 6 where 40–80 events are anticipated. This will constrain the slope of the star formation rate decline, -d \log(\mathrm{SFRD})/d \log(1+z) \approx 0.15 (1\sigma), and reveal connections between early galaxy assembly and large-scale . The mission's large high-z GRB sample also holds potential to detect cosmic variance in the early volume, using statistical methods for correction in GRB selections. By achieving homogeneous sky coverage through its dynamic pointing strategy, will sample 40–80 GRBs at z > 6, quantification of neutral fluctuations (\delta \chi_\mathrm{HI} \sim 0.3) and while mitigating selection es via and corrections. This will provide robust tests of \LambdaCDM predictions for volume fluctuations at high .

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