2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
The 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Wisconsin for a four-year term beginning January 2, 2023. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers secured re-election by defeating Republican nominee Tim Michels, a construction industry executive, with 1,358,896 votes (51.2 percent) to Michels's 1,268,194 votes (47.8 percent), a margin of 90,702 votes out of 2,654,119 total ballots cast; independent candidate Joan Ellis Beglinger received the remaining 27,029 votes (1.0 percent).[1] Evers, who faced no opposition in the Democratic primary, prevailed in a contest marked by record-breaking campaign spending surpassing $164 million from candidates and outside groups, amid national midterm trends favoring Republicans in congressional races but Democratic holds in key gubernatorial battlegrounds.[2][3] In the competitive Republican primary on August 9, 2022, Michels edged out former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, securing the nomination with endorsement from former President Donald Trump.[4] Evers's win represented the first successful re-election for a Democratic governor in Wisconsin during a midterm year under a Democratic president since 1962, maintaining divided government as Republicans retained legislative majorities.[3]
Background
2018 election and path to 2022
In the 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election held on November 6, incumbent Republican Scott Walker sought a third term but was defeated by Democratic state superintendent Tony Evers, who received 1,324,307 votes (49.4 percent) to Walker's 1,293,706 (48.3 percent), a narrow margin of 30,601 votes or 1.1 percentage points.[5][6] The outcome reflected high voter turnout exceeding 2.6 million ballots, Democratic mobilization against Walker's tenure—including backlash to 2011 collective bargaining limits—and shifts in suburban counties around Milwaukee and Madison, where Evers gained ground amid broader anti-Republican sentiment following Donald Trump's 2016 presidential win in the state by less than 1 percent.[7] Evers' inauguration on January 7, 2019, ushered in divided government, with Republicans retaining supermajorities in the state legislature (64-35 in the Assembly and 21-12 in the Senate).[8] This structure produced legislative gridlock, as Evers vetoed more than 100 Republican-passed bills between 2019 and 2022, including measures for tax reductions, expanded school choice programs, and labor policy changes such as right-to-work legislation.[9][10] Such vetoes highlighted partisan divides, with limited bipartisan successes on issues like transportation funding, while Evers' use of partial vetoes in budgets further strained relations.[11] The path to the 2022 election was shaped by national midterm dynamics, including persistent inflation reaching 9.1 percent annually in June 2022 and uneven post-COVID-19 economic recovery, which amplified voter concerns over costs and governance effectiveness in this swing state.[12] Republicans, controlling the legislature but lacking the governorship since 2018, prioritized flipping the executive branch to break veto-induced stalemates and align state policy with conservative priorities, drawing candidates amid President Joe Biden's low approval ratings below 40 percent. Evers, facing term limits in 2026 but eligible for re-election, defended his record against these headwinds in a race that underscored Wisconsin's competitive electoral history.[6]Incumbent Tony Evers' record: achievements and criticisms
During his first term from 2019 to 2023, Governor Tony Evers oversaw increases in K-12 education funding, with the state providing nearly $1.4 billion in additional spendable revenue for public schools in the 2023-25 biennial budget, building on prior increments that raised per-pupil spending amid ongoing debates over outcomes.[13] Evers also renegotiated the Foxconn incentive package originally struck under his predecessor, reducing projected taxpayer costs by $2.77 billion and scaling tax breaks to approximately $80 million in exchange for 1,454 jobs by 2024, allowing flexibility in project scope while curbing potential overcommitment of subsidies.[14] [15] These moves were credited with fiscal prudence, as Wisconsin's general fund balances reached record highs exceeding $6.7 billion by mid-2023, and state debt fell to its lowest level in at least 25 years, bolstered by federal aid and revenue growth.[16] Evers frequently exercised his veto power, issuing a record 126 vetoes between 2021 and 2022 alone, surpassing prior governors and often blocking Republican-backed legislation on taxes, labor, and education.[17] [18] Among these, he rejected multiple tax cut proposals, including a $3 billion income tax reduction in 2024 that would have lowered the third bracket from 5.3% to 4.4%, arguing they risked fiscal insolvency despite surplus projections.[19] [20] He also vetoed bills perceived as curbing worker protections, such as a 2025 gig worker carve-out that would have exempted certain independent contractors from minimum wage and overtime rules, preserving broader labor standards aligned with union interests.[21] Critics attributed stagnant educational progress to Evers' support for extended school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Wisconsin's 2022 NAEP scores showing historic declines—particularly in fourth-grade math, dropping significantly from pre-pandemic levels—correlating with prolonged remote learning in urban districts.[22] [23] Teacher shortages persisted, exacerbated by certification requirements under Evers' administration, leading to increased use of emergency licenses and short-term hires, though initiatives like apprenticeship pilots aimed to address retention where only 67% of new educators lasted five years.[24] [25] Economically, Wisconsin's real GDP growth lagged national averages, posting a -0.2% compound annual rate from 2019 to 2021—among the slowest in the U.S.—while urban areas like Milwaukee saw violent crime spikes, with homicide rates peaking in 2022 at levels over ten times the state average outside the city, amid FBI data indicating elevated murder and assault rates.[26] [27] [28]Democratic primary
Gubernatorial candidates and campaign
The Republican primary for governor pitted construction executive Tim Michels against former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in the most competitive contest, with minor candidates including state Representative Timothy Ramthun and businessman Kevin Nicholson. Michels, co-owner of Michels Corporation—Wisconsin's largest construction firm—entered the race on April 25, 2022, portraying himself as an outsider capable of challenging incumbent Tony Evers decisively, though critics noted his prior political activity, such as a 2004 U.S. Senate primary bid and family donations to Republican causes.[29][30] Kleefisch, who served as lieutenant governor from 2011 to 2019 alongside Governor Scott Walker, announced her candidacy on September 9, 2021, emphasizing her executive experience in advancing conservative policies like Act 10 labor reforms and tax cuts during Walker's tenure. She positioned herself as the electable choice for a swing state, highlighting her fundraising prowess—raising over $10 million by mid-2022—and broad appeal beyond the party's most ideological base.[31][32] The primary campaign exposed intraparty fractures over loyalty to former President Donald Trump and general election viability. Michels, benefiting from Trump's endorsement on July 27, 2022, and a rally appearance together on August 5, appealed to the MAGA wing by pledging to override Evers' vetoes on tax relief and election reforms, framing himself as unencumbered by "establishment" baggage. Kleefisch countered by stressing policy substance over personality-driven politics, critiquing rivals' entanglement in 2020 election denialism as a liability in Wisconsin, where Trump lost by fewer than 21,000 votes, and touting her record of winning statewide amid recalls and controversies.[33][34][35] Debates and ads intensified scrutiny on electability, with Michels attacking Kleefisch's fundraising from out-of-state donors and perceived softness on auditing 2020 results, while she portrayed him as an untested novice reliant on Trump's coattails. Ramthun, a vocal proponent of decertifying Wisconsin's 2020 electoral votes, drew limited support among election integrity hardliners, polling under 10%. Nicholson, a Marine veteran and 2018 Senate primary loser, emphasized business credentials but struggled for visibility. These dynamics underscored Republican debates on balancing base mobilization with suburban outreach needed to unseat Evers in November.[36][4]Lieutenant gubernatorial candidates
Sara Rodriguez, a registered nurse and former member of the Wisconsin State Assembly representing the 81st district, won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor. Elected to the assembly in 2020 after defeating incumbent Republican Shae Sortwell, Rodriguez focused her primary campaign on her professional background in healthcare administration and bilingual media ownership through her business, Latinos ¡En Marcha!, a Spanish-language newspaper serving Milwaukee's Latino community. She pledged to prioritize expanding mental health services, bolstering workforce development, and advancing Evers' agenda on education funding and family leave policies.[37][38] Rodriguez received key endorsements from Governor Tony Evers and established Democratic organizations, positioning her as the continuity choice for the ticket amid the open seat left by Mandela Barnes' Senate bid. Her platform emphasized pragmatic governance, drawing on her experience chairing assembly committees on health and rural affairs to argue for addressing Wisconsin's provider shortages and rural hospital sustainability.[39] Challenging her was Peng Her, CEO of the Hmong Institute in Madison and a community advocate with ties to health centers and nonprofit boards. A first-generation Hmong American, Her announced his candidacy on December 17, 2021, campaigning to represent underrepresented immigrant communities and promote economic equity through small business support and cultural competency in state services. His priorities included bridging urban-rural divides, enhancing language access in government, and leveraging his nonprofit leadership to tackle social determinants of health like housing and nutrition.[40][41] Both candidates aligned with Evers' reelection bid and converged on core issues such as protecting abortion access post-Dobbs, increasing public school investments, and advocating stricter gun background checks, though Her stressed grassroots mobilization from Madison's diverse southeast side while Rodriguez highlighted suburban and exurban outreach. The contest served as a low-stakes test of party loyalty, with Rodriguez's legislative profile and Evers backing proving decisive in voter turnout dynamics.[38][42]Endorsements and polling
Former President Donald Trump endorsed construction executive Tim Michels for the Republican gubernatorial nomination on July 27, 2022, emphasizing Michels' alignment with America First priorities and criticizing Kleefisch as insufficiently conservative.[33] This endorsement highlighted a divide within the party, with Trump appealing to voters skeptical of establishment figures amid ongoing debates over the 2020 election.[43] In response, former Vice President Mike Pence endorsed former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch on the same day, praising her record on conservative issues like law enforcement and positioning her as a reliable traditional Republican.[44] [45] Pence's support, alongside backing from figures like former Governor Scott Walker, underscored establishment GOP efforts to consolidate against the Trump-aligned challenger.[46] The Wisconsin Republican Party declined to endorse any candidate at its May 2022 state convention, as Kleefisch received less than the 60% threshold required for a formal nod despite her frontrunner status.[47] Endorsements from other prominent Republicans were split, with former Governor Tommy Thompson backing Michels for his outsider appeal and business experience, while business interests and party insiders largely favored Kleefisch's proven electoral track record.[48] This intra-party fracture reflected broader tensions between MAGA-aligned voters prioritizing loyalty to Trump and traditional conservatives focused on electability against incumbent Democrat Tony Evers.[34] Pre-primary polling captured the race's volatility, with Kleefisch holding an early lead that narrowed after Trump's late endorsement. A Marquette Law School Poll conducted April 6–19, 2022, showed Kleefisch leading Michels 35% to 20% among likely Republican primary voters, with the rest undecided or supporting minor candidates.[49] By a June 2022 Marquette survey, the contest tightened to a tie at 27% each, signaling Michels' rising momentum among base voters amid concerns over turnout in rural and conservative strongholds.[50] An Emerson College Polling survey from July 31–August 3, 2022, gave Kleefisch a slim 28% to 25% edge over Michels, with 35% undecided, reflecting persistent uncertainty driven by national figures' influence on Wisconsin's conservative electorate.[51] The Trump endorsement particularly swayed rural voters wary of perceived establishment moderation, contributing to perceptions of a late Michels surge in internal metrics, though public polls remained close through the primary on August 9.[34]Primary results
The Democratic primary for governor occurred on August 9, 2022, with incumbent Tony Evers facing no opposition. Evers secured 491,656 votes, representing 99.8% of the total, while write-in votes accounted for the remaining 975 ballots (0.2%).) Total turnout in the gubernatorial primary reached 492,631 votes.)| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Evers | 491,656 | 99.8% |
| Write-ins | 975 | 0.2% |
| Total | 492,631 | 100% |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Rodriguez | 354,260 | 76.4% |
| Peng Her | 108,766 | 23.5% |
| Write-ins | 628 | 0.1% |
| Total | 463,654 | 100% |
Republican primary
Gubernatorial candidates and campaign
The Republican primary for governor pitted construction executive Tim Michels against former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in the most competitive contest, with minor candidates including state Representative Timothy Ramthun and businessman Kevin Nicholson. Michels, co-owner of Michels Corporation—Wisconsin's largest construction firm—entered the race on April 25, 2022, portraying himself as an outsider capable of challenging incumbent Tony Evers decisively, though critics noted his prior political activity, such as a 2004 U.S. Senate primary bid and family donations to Republican causes.[29][30] Kleefisch, who served as lieutenant governor from 2011 to 2019 alongside Governor Scott Walker, announced her candidacy on September 9, 2021, emphasizing her executive experience in advancing conservative policies like Act 10 labor reforms and tax cuts during Walker's tenure. She positioned herself as the electable choice for a swing state, highlighting her fundraising prowess—raising over $10 million by mid-2022—and broad appeal beyond the party's most ideological base.[31][32] The primary campaign exposed intraparty fractures over loyalty to former President Donald Trump and general election viability. Michels, benefiting from Trump's endorsement on July 27, 2022, and a rally appearance together on August 5, appealed to the MAGA wing by pledging to override Evers' vetoes on tax relief and election reforms, framing himself as unencumbered by "establishment" baggage. Kleefisch countered by stressing policy substance over personality-driven politics, critiquing rivals' entanglement in 2020 election denialism as a liability in Wisconsin, where Trump lost by fewer than 21,000 votes, and touting her record of winning statewide amid recalls and controversies.[33][34][35] Debates and ads intensified scrutiny on electability, with Michels attacking Kleefisch's fundraising from out-of-state donors and perceived softness on auditing 2020 results, while she portrayed him as an untested novice reliant on Trump's coattails. Ramthun, a vocal proponent of decertifying Wisconsin's 2020 electoral votes, drew limited support among election integrity hardliners, polling under 10%. Nicholson, a Marine veteran and 2018 Senate primary loser, emphasized business credentials but struggled for visibility. These dynamics underscored Republican debates on balancing base mobilization with suburban outreach needed to unseat Evers in November.[36][4]Lieutenant gubernatorial candidates
Sara Rodriguez, a registered nurse and former member of the Wisconsin State Assembly representing the 81st district, won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor. Elected to the assembly in 2020 after defeating incumbent Republican Shae Sortwell, Rodriguez focused her primary campaign on her professional background in healthcare administration and bilingual media ownership through her business, Latinos ¡En Marcha!, a Spanish-language newspaper serving Milwaukee's Latino community. She pledged to prioritize expanding mental health services, bolstering workforce development, and advancing Evers' agenda on education funding and family leave policies.[37][38] Rodriguez received key endorsements from Governor Tony Evers and established Democratic organizations, positioning her as the continuity choice for the ticket amid the open seat left by Mandela Barnes' Senate bid. Her platform emphasized pragmatic governance, drawing on her experience chairing assembly committees on health and rural affairs to argue for addressing Wisconsin's provider shortages and rural hospital sustainability.[39] Challenging her was Peng Her, CEO of the Hmong Institute in Madison and a community advocate with ties to health centers and nonprofit boards. A first-generation Hmong American, Her announced his candidacy on December 17, 2021, campaigning to represent underrepresented immigrant communities and promote economic equity through small business support and cultural competency in state services. His priorities included bridging urban-rural divides, enhancing language access in government, and leveraging his nonprofit leadership to tackle social determinants of health like housing and nutrition.[40][41] Both candidates aligned with Evers' reelection bid and converged on core issues such as protecting abortion access post-Dobbs, increasing public school investments, and advocating stricter gun background checks, though Her stressed grassroots mobilization from Madison's diverse southeast side while Rodriguez highlighted suburban and exurban outreach. The contest served as a low-stakes test of party loyalty, with Rodriguez's legislative profile and Evers backing proving decisive in voter turnout dynamics.[38][42]Endorsements and polling
Former President Donald Trump endorsed construction executive Tim Michels for the Republican gubernatorial nomination on July 27, 2022, emphasizing Michels' alignment with America First priorities and criticizing Kleefisch as insufficiently conservative.[33] This endorsement highlighted a divide within the party, with Trump appealing to voters skeptical of establishment figures amid ongoing debates over the 2020 election.[43] In response, former Vice President Mike Pence endorsed former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch on the same day, praising her record on conservative issues like law enforcement and positioning her as a reliable traditional Republican.[44] [45] Pence's support, alongside backing from figures like former Governor Scott Walker, underscored establishment GOP efforts to consolidate against the Trump-aligned challenger.[46] The Wisconsin Republican Party declined to endorse any candidate at its May 2022 state convention, as Kleefisch received less than the 60% threshold required for a formal nod despite her frontrunner status.[47] Endorsements from other prominent Republicans were split, with former Governor Tommy Thompson backing Michels for his outsider appeal and business experience, while business interests and party insiders largely favored Kleefisch's proven electoral track record.[48] This intra-party fracture reflected broader tensions between MAGA-aligned voters prioritizing loyalty to Trump and traditional conservatives focused on electability against incumbent Democrat Tony Evers.[34] Pre-primary polling captured the race's volatility, with Kleefisch holding an early lead that narrowed after Trump's late endorsement. A Marquette Law School Poll conducted April 6–19, 2022, showed Kleefisch leading Michels 35% to 20% among likely Republican primary voters, with the rest undecided or supporting minor candidates.[49] By a June 2022 Marquette survey, the contest tightened to a tie at 27% each, signaling Michels' rising momentum among base voters amid concerns over turnout in rural and conservative strongholds.[50] An Emerson College Polling survey from July 31–August 3, 2022, gave Kleefisch a slim 28% to 25% edge over Michels, with 35% undecided, reflecting persistent uncertainty driven by national figures' influence on Wisconsin's conservative electorate.[51] The Trump endorsement particularly swayed rural voters wary of perceived establishment moderation, contributing to perceptions of a late Michels surge in internal metrics, though public polls remained close through the primary on August 9.[34]Primary results
The Democratic primary for governor occurred on August 9, 2022, with incumbent Tony Evers facing no opposition. Evers secured 491,656 votes, representing 99.8% of the total, while write-in votes accounted for the remaining 975 ballots (0.2%).) Total turnout in the gubernatorial primary reached 492,631 votes.)| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Evers | 491,656 | 99.8% |
| Write-ins | 975 | 0.2% |
| Total | 492,631 | 100% |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Rodriguez | 354,260 | 76.4% |
| Peng Her | 108,766 | 23.5% |
| Write-ins | 628 | 0.1% |
| Total | 463,654 | 100% |
Other candidates
Independent and third-party efforts
Seth Haskin, a 22-year-old independent college student and Wisconsin native, mounted a write-in campaign for governor, bypassing formal ballot access requirements that demand approximately 40,000 signatures for independents.[53][54] His platform prioritized fiscal conservatism, positioning financial responsibility as the government's core obligation to ensure sustainable budgeting and efficient resource allocation.[55] Haskin advocated anti-establishment reforms, including simplifying state laws for clarity and effectiveness while criticizing bureaucratic obfuscation and overreach that complicate governance.[55] Additional emphases included bolstering education to prepare the next generation, promoting skilled job opportunities, and enhancing public resources such as transportation, healthcare, infrastructure, energy, and environmental stewardship to foster long-term state progress.[55] No third-party candidates qualified for the ballot, reflecting Wisconsin's stringent access hurdles and the entrenched two-party system, where independents and minor parties historically struggle against well-funded major-party machines. Haskin's symbolic bid, lacking institutional support or widespread media coverage, yielded negligible vote shares—typically scattered write-ins totaling far below 1% statewide—highlighting the challenges of grassroots efforts in a polarized electoral landscape.[53][54]General election
Platforms and key policy differences
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers centered his reelection platform on defending over 100 vetoes of Republican-led bills from the state legislature, which he argued protected working families from measures like tax cuts favoring the wealthy and restrictions on collective bargaining rights for public employees.[17] Evers advocated expanding Medicaid coverage to address Wisconsin's status as one of 10 states without full expansion under the Affordable Care Act, estimating it would cover 40,000 low-income residents and bring in $1.5 billion in federal funds annually.[56] In education, he prioritized increased state funding for public schools, opposition to voucher expansions that divert funds from public institutions, and support for teacher unions through policies restoring bargaining rights diminished under prior administrations.[57] Republican challenger Tim Michels, a construction executive, outlined a platform focused on immediate tax reductions—including eliminating state income taxes on overtime pay and cutting property taxes—to alleviate inflation pressures on households, projecting savings of up to $1,100 annually for median-income families. He pledged deregulation of businesses to spur job creation, drawing from his industry experience to streamline permitting and reduce workforce mandates, while criticizing Evers' vetoes as obstructive to economic recovery post-COVID.[56] On education, Michels supported broadening school choice via vouchers and open enrollment, aiming to empower parental options beyond traditional public schools and counter what he described as failing outcomes under Evers' funding increases.[58] A stark divergence emerged on abortion policy following the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs decision in June 2022, which reactivated Wisconsin's 1849 near-total ban. Evers committed to vetoing any restrictive legislation and pursuing legal challenges to the ban, framing it as essential to preserving reproductive rights without gestational limits.[57] Michels initially endorsed the ban without exceptions but later clarified he would sign a 20-week limit with allowances for rape, incest, and maternal health risks, emphasizing deference to legislative processes while opposing Evers' veto threats.[59][60] The candidates' lieutenant gubernatorial running mates reinforced their agendas: Evers' selection of State Senator Sara Rodriguez, a nurse practitioner, aligned with priorities in health care access and public education investment, including advocacy for Medicaid expansion and workforce development in medical fields. Michels paired with former State Senator Jean Hundertmark, who echoed his calls for fiscal conservatism, school choice, and reduced government intervention, positioning the ticket as unified against Evers' "status quo" governance.[61]Major campaign issues
The economy emerged as a central issue, with incumbent Governor Tony Evers emphasizing Wisconsin's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, including an unemployment rate of 3.0 percent in January 2022 and the addition of 63,900 nonfarm jobs over the year ending November 2022, which he attributed to state investments in workforce training exceeding $6.6 million in grants.[62][63][64] Michels countered that Evers' support for prolonged lockdowns had exacerbated labor shortages, inflation pressures, and workforce participation challenges, arguing for deregulation and tax cuts to stimulate private-sector growth rather than government spending.[58] Evers' veto of a Republican bill to end participation in enhanced federal unemployment benefits in 2021 was cited by critics as prolonging economic distortions by discouraging workforce reentry, though supporters argued it provided necessary aid during recovery.[65] Public safety drew sharp contrasts, particularly amid rising urban crime rates under Evers' tenure. Milwaukee, Wisconsin's largest city, recorded 53 homicides in the first three months of 2022, on pace with historic highs, and a 40 percent year-over-year increase in homicides as of July 2022, contributing to statewide violent crime rises of 8.9 percent from 2019 to 2020—outpacing the national 4.6 percent increase.[66][67][68] Michels advocated tougher sentencing laws and increased police funding to deter repeat offenders, positioning these as direct responses to Evers' vetoes of criminal justice reforms that would have mandated stricter penalties for certain violent crimes and parole violations. Evers defended his record by attributing spikes to pandemic-related factors like social isolation and prioritized rehabilitation programs, vetoing measures seen as overly punitive that could swell prison populations without addressing root causes like poverty.[69][70] Education debates focused on school choice, parental involvement, and pandemic aftermaths. Evers opposed Republican bills to prohibit elements of critical race theory in curricula, vetoing legislation that would have barred teaching concepts framing systemic racism in K-12 and higher education settings, arguing such bans stifled honest historical discourse.[71][72] Michels championed parental rights expansions, including transparency in curriculum decisions and vouchers to counter what he called Evers' resistance to accountability amid significant COVID-19 learning losses; districts delaying in-person reopening in fall 2020 experienced nearly 2 percent drops in English proficiency and 5 percent in math, with statewide recovery lagging into 2022.[73] Evers highlighted investments in recovery but faced criticism for supporting extended closures that empirically correlated with proficiency declines exceeding typical summer learning loss.[58] Abortion rights intensified post the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, reviving Wisconsin's 1849 law banning the procedure except to save the mother's life. Evers pledged to repeal the ban and codify access, aligning with polls showing majority support for legal options.[74][75] Michels, initially advocating no exceptions beyond life-saving, later clarified support for rape and incest exceptions but prioritized the law's enforcement, drawing Democratic attacks framing his stance as extreme. Overlapping with election integrity, Michels' pledge that "Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I'm elected governor" was contextualized by his campaign as committing to reforms like voter ID strengthening and audit processes to address 2020 irregularities, though Democrats and media outlets portrayed it as an authoritarian threat to democracy without evidence of intent to subvert fair outcomes.[76][77] Such reforms, proponents argued, enhance causal trust in results via empirical fraud prevention rather than altering democratic mechanics.[78]Endorsements and record spending
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers secured endorsements from prominent labor organizations, including the Wisconsin Education Association Council in November 2021 and the American Federation of Teachers in October 2022.[79][80] These groups highlighted Evers' record on public education funding and workers' rights as key factors. Republican nominee Tim Michels, a construction industry executive, received backing from former President Donald Trump on June 2, 2022, who praised Michels' outsider status and alignment with America First policies.[81] Michels also drew support from business sectors tied to his professional background, including substantial contributions from construction-related donors totaling millions in the campaign's final months.[82] The general election campaign shattered previous financial records, with total spending by candidates and outside groups exceeding $164 million, more than double the prior high for a Wisconsin gubernatorial contest.[2] Evers' committee disbursed roughly $42 million, outpacing Michels' $28 million in direct campaign expenditures, much of which funded targeted advertising in competitive media markets like Milwaukee and Madison.[83] Independent expenditures by special interest groups added over $48 million, predominantly on TV and digital ads that dominated airtime and boosted candidate visibility statewide.[84] A notable share of funds originated from out-of-state donors, reflecting the race's significance as a test of national partisan dynamics in a swing state ahead of the 2024 presidential cycle.[85] Dark money entities, including 501(c)(4) organizations with undisclosed contributors, accounted for a substantial portion of outside spending, enabling anonymous influence on voter messaging without direct coordination with campaigns.[2] This influx amplified issue-focused ads on topics like education, taxes, and election integrity, contributing to the race's intensity without altering core voter turnout patterns.Polling trends
Polling for the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, conducted after the August 9 Republican primary victory by Tim Michels, initially showed incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers maintaining a lead over Michels among likely voters. Aggregated data from multiple pollsters indicated Evers ahead by approximately 5-7 points in late summer surveys, reflecting his incumbency advantage and Democratic performance in urban centers. However, these margins steadily narrowed through the fall, reaching ties or slight Republican edges in final pre-election polls, amid heightened GOP mobilization in rural areas.[86] Key shifts were evident in serial polling from reputable firms like Marquette University Law School, which screened respondents as likely voters based on voting history and interest. A June 2022 Marquette survey (pre-Dobbs decision) had Evers leading 48% to Michels' 41% (+7 margin), but by September (post-Dobbs, June 24), the lead shrank to +3 (47%-44%). October's Marquette poll (October 3-9) showed Evers at 47% to 46% (+1), while the final October 24-November 1 survey registered a 48%-48% tie. The RealClearPolling aggregate from October 24 to November 5 averaged Evers at 47.8% and Michels at 48.4% (Michels +0.6), incorporating polls from Marquette, Data for Progress, and Trafalgar Group, though the latter two favored Michels by +2 each.[86][87] Methodological considerations included likely voter models, which adjusted for turnout enthusiasm, and house effects among pollsters; for instance, Trafalgar's polls consistently leaned toward Republicans compared to Marquette's more balanced approach, contributing to aggregate variability. Despite the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade—potentially boosting Democratic turnout on abortion—polls did not reflect a widened Evers lead, as Republican base enthusiasm in rural and suburban areas offset urban Democratic strongholds like Milwaukee and Dane counties, where Evers polled stronger in crosstabs. This rural-urban divide mirrored broader Wisconsin polarization, with Michels gaining traction outside major metros.[86][88]| Pollster | Field Dates | Sample Size (LV) | MOE | Evers (%) | Michels (%) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | Jun 14-20 | ~800 | ±4% | 48 | 41 | Evers +7 |
| Marquette | Sep 6-11 | ~800 | ±4% | 47 | 44 | Evers +3 |
| Marquette | Oct 3-9 | ~800 | ±4% | 47 | 46 | Evers +1 |
| Marquette | Oct 24-Nov 1 | ~800 | ±4% | 48 | 48 | Tie |
| RCP Average | Oct 24-Nov 5 | Varies | - | 47.8 | 48.4 | Michels +0.6 |
Debates and pivotal events
On October 14, 2022, Democratic incumbent Governor Tony Evers and Republican challenger Tim Michels participated in their only general election debate, hosted by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association and broadcast statewide.[89] The 50-minute event featured pointed exchanges on crime, abortion restrictions, economic policy, inflation, and workforce participation, with Evers emphasizing his record on public safety investments and Michels advocating for tougher sentencing and criticizing Evers' vetoes of Republican-backed bills as causing gridlock.[90] [91] Evers portrayed Michels' stances, such as support for eliminating tenure for public school teachers, as extreme and disruptive to education, while Michels highlighted Evers' 140 vetoes since 2019 as evidence of ineffective governance.[58] [92] A notable moment occurred when Michels, discussing labor shortages, referred to some non-working individuals as "lazy people" who needed incentives to rejoin the workforce, drawing immediate pushback from Evers and later scrutiny from media outlets framing it as dismissive of economic hardships.[93] In response to questions on abortion, Michels clarified his support for exceptions in cases of rape and incest—reversing an earlier primary-season position aligned with a total ban—prompting Evers to question his consistency and accusing him of shifting to appeal to moderates.[94] This walkback, reported by the Associated Press as part of a pattern of policy adjustments, including on education funding, fueled campaign ads portraying Michels as opportunistic, though supporters viewed it as pragmatic refinement.[94] Late in the campaign, on November 2, 2022, Michels stated at a rally in Green Bay that a Republican victory would ensure "we're never going to lose another election" in Wisconsin, in the context of gaining legislative majorities to enact reforms on voting and elections.[95] Evers' campaign and aligned media interpreted this as a threat to democratic norms, amplifying it in ads, while Michels' team defended it as rhetorical emphasis on sustained policy control rather than subversion.[95] Both candidates intensified stops in swing counties like Waukesha and Dane, with Michels focusing on rural turnout events tied to former President Donald Trump's endorsement rally in Racine on October 3.[35]Election results overview
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers, running on a joint ticket with Lieutenant Governor nominee Sara Rodriguez, won re-election on November 8, 2022, defeating Republican nominee Tim Michels and his running mate, former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch.[3] Evers secured 1,358,774 votes, comprising 51.1% of the total, while Michels received 1,268,535 votes, or 47.8%.[1] The victory margin stood at 90,239 votes, equivalent to 3.3 percentage points. Independent candidate Joan Ellis Beglinger garnered 27,198 votes (1.0%), and write-in candidate Seth Haskin obtained 104 votes (0.0%).[1] With the margin exceeding 1% of the total votes cast, no automatic recount was triggered under Wisconsin law, and neither campaign requested one.[96] This outcome preserved Democratic hold on the governorship, marking Evers's second term.[97]Results by county and district
Tony Evers obtained overwhelming victories in urban strongholds, capturing 78.6% of the vote in Dane County and a majority in Milwaukee County, which together provided a significant portion of his statewide margin.[98][99] In contrast, Tim Michels dominated suburban Waukesha County with over 60% of the vote and carried most rural counties in northern Wisconsin, such as Barron County (60.8% for Michels) and Burnett County (62.2%), often by margins exceeding 20 percentage points.[99][3] Compared to the 2018 election, Evers' performance softened in key suburban areas like Waukesha, where Republican margins widened, reflecting a shift toward stronger GOP support in those regions.[99] Rural northern counties also showed increased Republican dominance, contributing to Michels' geographic breadth despite the statewide loss.[3] At the congressional district level, Michels prevailed in most districts, including the Republican-leaning 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th, while the 3rd District remained competitive. Evers relied on dominant wins in the Democratic bastions of the 2nd and 4th Districts to offset these losses.[3]Voter turnout and demographics
Voter turnout for the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election was 71.9% of the voting-eligible population (VEP), an increase from the 66.5% VEP turnout in the 2018 midterm election.[100] This elevated participation reflected the competitive nature of the race in a key battleground state, where approximately 2.66 million ballots were cast out of roughly 3.70 million eligible voters.[101][100] Turnout exceeded national midterm averages, driven by factors such as intense partisan mobilization and concurrent high-profile contests, including the U.S. Senate race.[102] Demographic breakdowns from exit polls revealed distinct voting patterns. Evers secured strong support from women (57% to Michels's 41%), college graduates (56% to 42%), and voters aged 65 and older (55% to 43%), while Michels led among men (52% to 46%) and non-college-educated voters (51% to 47%).[103] Racial divides were pronounced, with Evers winning 86% of Black voters compared to 12% for Michels, and 61% of Latino voters to 36%; among white voters, Michels held a narrow edge (51% to 47%).[103] Geographic splits aligned with urbanization: Evers took 64% in urban areas, 55% in suburbs, and trailed with 38% in rural counties where Michels received 60%.[103]| Demographic Group | Evers (%) | Michels (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Men | 46 | 52 |
| Women | 57 | 41 |
| White | 47 | 51 |
| Black | 86 | 12 |
| Latino | 61 | 36 |
| No college degree | 47 | 51 |
| College degree | 56 | 42 |
| Urban | 64 | 34 |
| Suburban | 55 | 43 |
| Rural | 38 | 60 |