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2013 conclave

The 2013 papal conclave was the meeting of the College of Cardinals convened from 12 to 13 March 2013 in the Sistine Chapel of the Apostolic Palace to elect a new Bishop of Rome following the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI.^[1]^[2] This event marked the first papal election in almost six centuries triggered by a voluntary resignation rather than the death of the incumbent pontiff.^[3] Pope Benedict XVI announced his intention to resign on 11 February 2013, citing advanced age and declining health as rendering him unable to adequately fulfill the demands of the office, with the resignation taking effect at 8:00 PM on 28 February 2013.^[4]^[3] The decision followed a period of challenges for the Holy See, including the Vatileaks scandal involving leaked documents that exposed internal corruption and power struggles within the Roman Curia.^[5] A total of 115 cardinal electors under the age of 80 participated in the conclave, adhering to the norms outlined in the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis promulgated by Pope John Paul II in 1996 and amended by Benedict XVI in 2013.^[5]^[6] After four rounds of scrutiny on 12 March yielding no result, the fifth ballot on the afternoon of 13 March produced white smoke signaling the election of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the Archbishop of Buenos Aires, Argentina.^[2]^[1] Bergoglio, aged 76, accepted the election and chose the papal name Francis, becoming the first pope from the Americas, the first Jesuit pontiff, and the first to hail from the Southern Hemisphere.^[2]^[7] The conclave's outcome reflected a shift toward a pope perceived as reform-oriented, amid calls for addressing administrative dysfunctions and evangelization challenges in a secularizing world, though subsequent developments have highlighted ongoing tensions between traditional doctrinal emphases and pastoral innovations.^[5]

Background and Context

Benedict XVI's Resignation

Pope Benedict XVI announced his resignation from the papacy on February 11, 2013, during a consistory convened for the canonization of sainthood causes, declaring that he would renounce the ministry of Bishop of Rome effective at 8:00 p.m. on February 28, 2013.^[4] This decision marked the first papal abdication since Gregory XII resigned in 1415 to resolve the Western Schism, and the first without external coercion since Celestine V in 1294.^[8] At age 85, Benedict emphasized in his Latin declaration that, after examining his conscience, he recognized his physical and mental capacities had deteriorated to the point of inadequacy for exercising the Petrine office amid the "graviores hodie" (more grave today) demands on the Church, including rapid global changes and internal trials.^[4]^[9] Benedict's stated rationale centered on empirical assessments of his health limitations rather than external pressures, though biographers later detailed chronic conditions such as severe insomnia and exhaustion that intensified during his pontificate, impairing his ability to travel and lead effectively.^[10] These factors aligned with canon law provisions under Canon 332 §2, which permits resignation if the pope declares it freely and pertains to the office itself, without requiring acceptance by any authority.^[4] The announcement stunned observers, as no pope had invoked such a step in modern times despite precedents in Church history, underscoring Benedict's judgment that sustained governance required vigor he could no longer provide. The resignation unfolded against a backdrop of institutional strains, notably the Vatileaks scandal of 2012, in which confidential documents stolen by papal butler Paolo Gabriele were leaked to journalists, revealing curial rivalries, corruption allegations, and inefficiencies in Vatican administration.^[11] Concurrently, the Institute for the Works of Religion (Vatican Bank) faced investigations for money laundering and opaque financial practices, including failures in anti-corruption compliance that drew international regulatory scrutiny.^[12] While Benedict's official text made no reference to these events as causal, close associates like biographer Peter Seewald maintained they did not directly prompt the decision, attributing it instead to personal discernment of incapacity; nonetheless, the scandals empirically amplified perceptions of a Vatican unable to reform under weakened leadership.^[13] Theologically, Benedict framed the act as renunciation for the Church's greater good, invoking humility in yielding authority to ensure effective stewardship, a stance rooted in his writings on the papacy as diakonia (service) rather than dominion, thereby modeling detachment from power in line with evangelical poverty.^[4] This rationale prioritized causal efficacy—recognizing age-induced decline as a barrier to fulfilling the office's demands—over perpetuating tenure for symbolic continuity, a first-principles approach to ecclesiastical governance amid empirical evidence of faltering capacity.^[14]

Papal Election Rules and Modifications

The papal election is governed by the Apostolic Constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, promulgated by Pope John Paul II on 22 February 1996, which establishes that only cardinals who have not yet reached the age of 80 by the start of the vacancy are eligible to vote, with the process requiring a two-thirds supermajority of the electors present for a valid election.^[6] Balloting occurs in the Sistine Chapel under strict secrecy, with electors taking oaths of confidentiality; up to four scrutinies (votes) are held daily—two in the morning and two in the afternoon—after which unsuccessful ballots are burned, producing smoke visible from the chimney to signal the outcome (black for no election, white for success).^[6] These provisions aim to ensure deliberation free from external influence, with isolation measures prohibiting communication with the outside world.^[6] Pope Benedict XVI modified these norms via the motu proprio De aliquibus mutationibus in normis de electione Romani Pontificis on 11 June 2007, reinstating the absolute requirement of a two-thirds majority for election, without the prior allowance for a simple absolute majority after approximately 30-33 failed ballots as had been permitted under earlier interpretations. This change emphasized the traditional threshold to prevent dilution of consensus in cases of deadlock, reflecting a preference for broad agreement over expediency in selecting the successor to St. Peter.^[15] For the 2013 conclave, following Benedict's resignation effective 28 February, he issued another motu proprio, Normas nonnullas, on 22 February, amending paragraph 37 of Universi Dominici Gregis to permit an earlier start than the standard 15-20 days after the vacancy begins, provided a majority of arriving cardinals agree by secret ballot.^[16] This adaptation addressed the unique circumstances of a resignation rather than death, allowing the cardinals to convene on 12 March after voting on 8 March to advance the date, thus compressing the pre-conclave period while maintaining procedural integrity.^[16]^[17] These rules reflect the practical constraints of the process, as evidenced by historical data: since the establishment of modern conclave norms, no election has exceeded five days in the 20th century, with the 2013 conclave concluding on its second day, aligning with the median duration of about two days for post-1900 conclaves and underscoring the efficacy of the ballot limits and majority threshold in resolving divisions without indefinite prolongation.^[18]^[19]

Participants and Pre-Conclave Dynamics

Composition of Cardinal Electors

At the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI on 28 February 2013, 117 cardinals under the age of 80 were eligible to vote in the conclave per Universi Dominici Gregis, which excludes those who reach 80 before the sede vacante.^[20] Two eligible cardinals did not attend: Julius Riyadi Darmaatmadja of Indonesia, citing health issues, and Keith O'Brien of Scotland, amid allegations of sexual misconduct.^[5] Thus, 115 cardinals participated in the election held on 12–13 March 2013.^[21] Of the participating electors, 67 had been appointed by Benedict XVI, accounting for 58% of the total, while 48 were appointees of John Paul II.^[5] Benedict's selections emphasized continuity in doctrinal orthodoxy and liturgical tradition, drawing from theologians and curial officials aligned with his hermeneutic of reform in continuity.^[21] The John Paul II appointees, created between 1979 and 2005, represented a broader spectrum but included many with experience from the 2005 conclave that elected Benedict himself; all 48 participating John Paul II cardinals had been electors in 2005, providing institutional memory to the process.^[5] Geographically, Europe dominated with 60 electors (52%), including 28 from Italy, underscoring the historical centrality of the continent despite global Catholic growth elsewhere.^[22] Latin America followed with 19 (17%), North America with 14 (12%), Africa with 11 (10%), and Asia with 11 (10%); no electors hailed from Oceania.^[22] This distribution reflected incremental diversification, with non-European representation rising from prior conclaves amid the Church's demographic shift southward. The average age of participants was approximately 72 years.^[23] Institutionally, around 27% (31 cardinals) held curial positions in the Roman Curia, influencing Vatican governance perspectives, while the majority were residential archbishops or bishops from local dioceses.^[24] Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, aged 85, resided in the Vatican but abstained from participation, as emeritus popes hold no electoral role under canon law, preserving the conclave's exclusivity to active electors.^[20]

Speculation on Papabili

Prior to the conclave's commencement on March 12, 2013, speculation centered on several cardinals viewed as papabili, or potential frontrunners, with Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan emerging as the most frequently cited favorite due to his orthodox theological stance, pastoral experience in Venice and Milan, and appeal to those seeking an Italian pope after the non-Italian pontificates of John Paul II and Benedict XVI.^[21]^[25] Scola's profile aligned with desires for continuity in doctrinal firmness amid ongoing scandals, positioning him as a bridge between Benedict's intellectual legacy and curial reform.^[26] Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet, prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, was another prominent contender, valued for his extensive Vatican administrative experience and balanced approach to orthodoxy and evangelization, though his non-Italian origin tempered enthusiasm among those prioritizing European continuity.^[25] Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires drew attention for his emphasis on pastoral outreach to the poor and critiques of clericalism, appealing to cardinals focused on reforming Church governance post-Vatileaks while maintaining a Jesuit commitment to social doctrine over doctrinal laxity.^[27] Brazilian Cardinal Odilo Scherer and American Cardinal Timothy Dolan were also speculated upon, with Scherer representing Latin American growth in the Church and Dolan noted for his charismatic media presence and defense of traditional moral teachings amid U.S. cultural shifts.^[25] Betting markets provided an empirical gauge of perceived sentiment, with Scola listed at 2-1 odds by multiple bookmakers like Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, reflecting insider and media consensus on his viability, while Ouellet trailed at around 3-1 to 7-2, underscoring curial expertise as a valued factor over novelty.^[28]^[29] These odds, aggregated from public wagers, indicated a tilt toward European candidates but highlighted non-European options like Ghana's Peter Turkson as viable amid discussions of globalizing the papacy.^[30] Such predictions, however, captured betting trends rather than conclave realities, influenced by media leaks and Vatican observer analyses prone to national biases. Influencing dynamics pitted calls for institutional reform—addressing financial mismanagement and curial intrigue exposed under Benedict—against preferences for doctrinal continuity to counter perceived dilutions of Catholic identity through accommodationist trends.^[31] Traditionalist viewpoints emphasized selecting a pope to reinforce Benedict's firmness on liturgy, bioethics, and relativism critiques, wary of shifts prioritizing social justice rhetoric that might eclipse absolute moral teachings.^[32] Progressive-leaning speculations favored non-European figures for invigorating outreach, yet conservative analyses cautioned that Latin American candidates risked overemphasizing economic inequities at the expense of sexual ethics and family doctrine, potentially exacerbating internal divisions.^[33] The Italian versus non-European debate underscored these tensions, with proponents of an Italian like Scola arguing for restored Roman equilibrium, while advocates for outsiders sought to signal renewal beyond Europe's secular decline.

General Congregations

The General Congregations consisted of preparatory meetings convened by the College of Cardinals in the days leading up to the conclave, commencing on March 4, 2013, and continuing through March 11, with sessions held in the Synod Hall of the Apostolic Palace.^[5] These gatherings, governed by the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, involved all cardinals present in Rome, including those over 80 years of age ineligible to vote, with attendance varying from 103 electors on the first day to approximately 150-160 participants overall as additional non-electors joined.^[34] ^[35] Participants took oaths of secrecy to ensure confidentiality, though initial informal briefings by North American cardinals were discontinued by March 6 to align with Vatican protocol.^[36] The meetings divided into general sessions open to broad discussion and smaller particular groups for focused exchanges, allowing cardinals to assess the Church's global condition without delving into specific candidacies.^[37] Central to the discussions were reports from cardinals on diocesan realities worldwide, highlighting stark regional disparities: robust growth in Africa and Asia contrasted with secularization and declining vocations in Europe and North America, underscoring challenges in evangelization amid cultural relativism.^[37] Curial reform emerged as a dominant theme, driven by revelations from the Vatileaks scandal and an internal investigation into Vatican finances, which exposed mismanagement, corruption, and lack of transparency in institutions like the Institute for the Works of Religion.^[38] Cardinals voiced demands for structural overhaul, including streamlined governance, greater accountability, and decentralization to reduce Roman centralization's inertia, with some advocating an "outsider" pope unencumbered by curial entanglements to foster renewal.^[39] Clerical sexual abuse scandals were also addressed, with emphasis on the need for rigorous accountability mechanisms to restore credibility, though reports noted persistent cover-up patterns in some regions.^[37] Divergent priorities surfaced among participants: reformers prioritized administrative efficiency and synodality to empower local churches, influencing post-election initiatives like Pope Francis's council of eight cardinals for curial redesign, while others, particularly from doctrinally conservative regions, stressed upholding orthodoxy against internal heterodoxies and external pressures, cautioning that decentralization risked diluting unified teaching authority.^[40] These exchanges, totaling over 140 interventions, informed the electors' mindset by causally linking institutional pathologies—such as curial factionalism—to broader evangelization failures, without resolving into consensus but amplifying calls for a pontiff capable of addressing both governance and fidelity crises.^[41]

Conclave Proceedings

Opening and First Day (12 March)

The cardinal electors, numbering 115, began the conclave on 12 March 2013 by processing from the Pauline Chapel through the Vatican corridors to the Sistine Chapel, entering around 5:00 p.m. local time amid chants of the Litany of Saints and Veni Creator Spiritus to invoke divine guidance.^[42]^[43] Inside the chapel, each elector approached the altar individually, placing a hand on the Book of the Gospels to swear a solemn oath of secrecy, fidelity to the Church's norms, and commitment to electing a suitable pontiff, under penalty of excommunication for violations; non-electors present had sworn earlier in the Pauline Chapel.^[44]^[45] The Master of Papal Liturgical Celebrations, Archbishop Guido Marini, then issued the command "Extra omnes," ordering all non-electors to depart and initiating the sealing of the chapel doors, with electronic jammers activated to prevent external communications and ensure total isolation.^[43]^[46] A brief period of silent prayer and meditation followed, led by Cardinal Dean Angelo Sodano, before the first scrutiny ballot commenced, involving the distribution of ballots inscribed with candidates' names and a verification process to confirm no two-thirds-plus-one majority (77 votes required).^[47]^[45] The ballots were burned with additives producing black smoke ("fumata nera"), which billowed from the chapel's chimney at 7:41 p.m., signaling an inconclusive result and no pope elected after this single afternoon scrutiny—consistent with expectations of initial fragmentation due to the electors' diverse regional, theological, and curial backgrounds, compounded by fatigue from preceding general congregations.^[48]^[49]^[50] The enforced seclusion, prohibiting media, phones, or any outside influence, heightened the psychological intensity of deliberations, fostering a controlled environment aimed at discerning consensus amid underlying tensions from recent Vatican scandals and Benedict XVI's unprecedented resignation.^[51]^[52] No further ballots occurred that day, adhering to procedural norms allowing up to four scrutinies but reflecting practical caution in early stages.^[51]^[53]

Second Day and Balloting (13 March)

The cardinal electors convened for the second day of the conclave on 13 March 2013, beginning with Mass in the Vatican's Pauline Chapel at around 8:15 a.m. local time, followed by procession to the Sistine Chapel for an oath of secrecy and the morning session of prayer and voting.^[51] Two ballots were conducted, with ballots burned after each pair using chemicals to produce black smoke, which emerged from the Sistine Chapel chimney at approximately 11:40 a.m., confirming no candidate had achieved the required two-thirds majority.^[54] This outcome aligned with canonical procedures under Universi Dominici Gregis, which limit sessions to four ballots daily after the first day and mandate smoke signals as the sole public indicator of progress. After a midday pause for lunch and private reflection, the cardinals resumed in the afternoon, starting with prayer around 4:30 p.m. and conducting two additional ballots. White smoke billowed from the chimney at 7:06 p.m., signaling that a pope had been elected on the fifth ballot overall—a pace faster than many historical conclaves, such as the 1978 election of John Paul II requiring eight ballots over three days.^[55]^[5] The swift consensus, inferred from the smoke timeline without official ballot counts disclosed to preserve secrecy, suggested effective discernment amid pre-conclave divisions, possibly via a compromise figure bridging curial reformers and traditionalists.^[56] Thousands gathered in St. Peter's Square monitored the chimney via screens and media broadcasts, with initial disappointment at the morning black smoke giving way to jubilation at the evening white signal, accompanied by bell tolling from St. Peter's Basilica. No official reports indicated procedural irregularities, underscoring the conclave's isolation from external pressures, which canon law enforces through electronic jamming and oaths to prioritize uninfluenced spiritual judgment over demands for transparency that could invite lobbying. This structure, rooted in preventing the prolonged deadlocks of past centuries, facilitated resolution within norms despite the electors' diverse geographic and ideological composition.

Election Outcome

Final Scrutiny and Vote Counts

The election of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio as pope required a two-thirds supermajority of 77 votes out of the 115 cardinal electors present, as stipulated by the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis and reaffirmed in Pope Benedict XVI's 2013 motu proprio Normas nonnullas, which mandated this threshold without exception.^[16]^[57] Upon achieving this in the fifth ballot on the afternoon of 13 March 2013, the scrutineers conducted the final scrutiny, burning the ballots in the presence of the electors to produce white smoke signaling the conclave's conclusion.^[58]^[59] Bergoglio verbally accepted the election when asked, Acceptasne electionem de te canonice factam in Summum Pontificem? ("Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?"), responding Accepto ("I accept"), thereby becoming Pope Francis.^[60] Official Vatican accounts maintain absolute secrecy on vote tallies, bound by the electors' oath of perpetual silence under pain of excommunication, with no public disclosure of counts or progression permitted.^[61]^[60] Leaked reports, however, have claimed a rapid shift in the afternoon's three ballots: the first seeing Angelo Scola at approximately 30 votes, Bergoglio at 26 or 27, Marc Ouellet at 22, and Seán O'Malley at 10; the second with Bergoglio at 45, Scola at 38, and Ouellet at 24; and the third elevating Bergoglio to 56 against Scola's 41, before surpassing 77 in the decisive vote.^[62]^[56]^[63] Earlier morning ballots reportedly favored Scola with 35 votes to Bergoglio's 20 and Ouellet's 15, indicating an initial fragmentation that consolidated toward Bergoglio amid concerns over curial reform.^[62] These leaked figures, drawn from anonymous sources and detailed in journalistic accounts like Austen Ivereigh's The Great Reformer, face denials from implicated cardinals, who rejected claims of pre-arranged campaigning or specific vote solicitations by Bergoglio's supporters, prompting Ivereigh to revise descriptions in later editions.^[64]^[65] The Church defends the process's integrity through its ritual safeguards—scrutiny by three elected cardinals, immediate ballot incineration, and absence of formal protests—arguing that such brevity reflects divine providence over institutional haste, though critics contend it obscured potential divisions without empirical contradiction from official records.^[60]^[61]

Announcement of Pope Francis

At 20:12 Rome time on 13 March 2013, Cardinal Jean-Louis Tauran, as protodeacon, appeared on the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica and proclaimed "Habemus Papam" ("We have a pope"), announcing that Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, Argentina, had been elected as the 266th pope and had chosen the name Francis.^[66]^[67] Bergoglio's selection of the name Francis honored Saint Francis of Assisi, the 13th-century Italian friar known for his embrace of poverty, humility, and care for creation, signaling an intention to prioritize service to the poor and ecclesiastical renewal.^[68]^[69] Pope Francis then emerged onto the balcony for his first public appearance, dressed in simple white papal vestments without the traditional red mozzetta cape, and bowed his head in silent prayer for several moments, requesting the crowd's blessing before imparting his own Urbi et Orbi ("to the city and the world") apostolic benediction.^[70]^[71] In his brief address, he expressed the cardinals' duty to provide Rome with a bishop and invoked the protection of the Virgin Mary, emphasizing fraternity and peace among peoples.^[70] This gesture of humility—contrasting with the more ceremonial formality of his predecessor Benedict XVI—marked an immediate shift toward a pastoral, approachable style.^[72] The election represented historic milestones: Francis became the first Jesuit pope, the first from Latin America, and the first pontiff from the Americas or Southern Hemisphere, reflecting the demographic reality that over 40% of the world's Catholics reside in Latin America, where the faith has grown significantly since the mid-20th century.^[72]^[73] He was also the first non-European pope since Gregory III, a Syrian elected in 731.^[72] These developments underscored a transitional moment for the Church, with initial ecclesiastical reactions highlighting optimism for renewed outreach to global peripheries alongside cautious notes on balancing pastoral mercy with doctrinal clarity.^[74]

Controversies and Secrecy Breaches

Leaked Ballot Results

According to leaked accounts published by Vatican journalist Gerard O'Connell, the first ballot on the evening of 12 March 2013 yielded the following results among 115 cardinal electors: Angelo Scola received 30 votes, Jorge Bergoglio 26 (with one additional vote invalidated due to misspelling as "Broglio"), Marc Ouellet 22, Seán O'Malley 10, and Odilo Scherer 4, while votes were distributed among 23 candidates in total, including single votes for figures such as Christoph Schönborn, Peter Turkson, and Luis Antonio Tagle.^[56]^[63] These tallies, drawn from anonymous cardinal notes, indicate initial fragmentation with no candidate approaching the required two-thirds majority of 77 votes.^[56] Reports of subsequent ballots describe a progressive consolidation toward Bergoglio. Morning scrutinies on 13 March allegedly saw his support rise amid declining votes for Scola and others, with Italian media citing insider claims that Scola's backers shifted allegiance to Bergoglio after early rounds.^[75] By the final ballot, leaked figures place Bergoglio at 85 votes, exceeding the threshold, while Scola garnered 20 and Ouellet fewer.^[76] A 2019 publication referencing the same anonymous report emphasized overall vote dispersion, with mentions of over 90 distinct candidates receiving at least one vote across the process, underscoring the conclave's lack of early frontrunners.^[56]^[77] Additional claims include an irregularity on the fifth ballot, where an extra vote prompted invalidation and a reballot, purportedly sourced from Italian journalistic accounts of procedural notes.^[78] These disclosures contrast with the historical norm of strict secrecy in conclaves, where ballot adherence has been near-absolute since the 13th century, with rare prior breaches limited to verbal anecdotes rather than detailed tallies.^[60]

Surveillance and External Interference Claims

Following the Vatileaks scandal of 2012, which exposed internal Vatican documents detailing corruption and power struggles, concerns over potential surveillance and leaks intensified ahead of the 2013 conclave, prompting enhanced security protocols. Vatican officials conducted sweeps of the Sistine Chapel for listening devices and installed signal jammers to block mobile phone communications and prevent electronic eavesdropping during the proceedings.^[79]^[80] These measures addressed fears of technological intrusion, building on the distrust revealed by Vatileaks that contributed to Pope Benedict XVI's resignation on February 28, 2013.^[81] Post-conclave reports amplified claims of external interference, with Italian magazine Panorama alleging in October 2013 that the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) had intercepted phone calls of cardinals discussing potential candidates prior to the election, based on documents leaked by Edward Snowden.^[82] The report suggested such monitoring could influence the process through indirect pressure, echoing historical concerns about foreign states attempting to sway papal elections, as noted by Vatican spokespersons in response to pre-conclave media speculation.^[83] However, no verifiable evidence emerged of successful interference during the conclave itself, and the preventive jammers—standard since at least 2005—ensured no electronic leaks from within the chapel.^[84] Vatican officials maintained that these protocols, including device checks and prohibitions on external media, effectively isolated the cardinals, with no confirmed breaches attributed to surveillance.^[85] The absence of post-event disclosures validating external meddling underscores the robustness of physical and electronic safeguards against both technological and human moles, though the NSA claims highlighted ongoing vulnerabilities in pre-conclave communications outside Vatican control.^[86]

Debates on Leak Authenticity and Process Integrity

Journalist Gerard O'Connell's 2018 book The Election of Pope Francis offered a detailed reconstruction of the conclave's proceedings, drawing on anonymous cardinal sources who reportedly violated their oath of secrecy to describe voting patterns and discussions, thereby lending circumstantial support to the authenticity of certain leaked details despite official prohibitions.^[60]^[56] In a 2024 book-length interview, Pope Francis himself disclosed strategic "maneuvers" during the 2013 conclave, including cardinals' concerns over his past associations with liberation theology and efforts to position candidates, affirming the presence of organized lobbying that aligned with elements reported in leaks and underscoring that while cardinals are perpetually bound by secrecy, elected popes retain liberty to reveal such matters.^[87]^[88] Counterarguments against leak validity emphasize Vatican assertions that reported specifics were fabrications or extrapolations. Spanish priest and Vatican commentator Juan Vicente Boo stated in a 2025 interview that "in the conclaves of 2005 and 2013 there were no real leaks of what was happening in the Sistine Chapel, all were false speculations," attributing post-conclave narratives to media conjecture rather than verified breaches.^[89] The Universi Dominici Gregis norms, reaffirmed in conclave oaths, impose "absolute and perpetual secrecy" on participants regarding voting and deliberations, with violations risking excommunication, a deterrent that official sources cite as ensuring the integrity of unverified external claims.^[60]^[90] Debates extend to the conclave's overall process integrity, with critics arguing that substantiated maneuvering undermines perceptions of divine guidance, portraying the election as susceptible to human factionalism akin to secular politics and challenging the doctrinal view of the Holy Spirit's protective role in papal selection.^[91] Defenders maintain that providence operates through imperfect human agency, as evidenced by historical precedents of contested elections yielding legitimate popes, and stress that empirical verification remains elusive due to enforced opacity, which safeguards against external pressures but invites skepticism.^[92] Conservative analysts have highlighted leaks as exposing greater risks of unaccountable influence under reform-oriented pontificates compared to Benedict XVI's emphasis on transparency amid prior Vatileaks scandals, though such views prioritize institutional accountability over presumptions of infallibility in the electoral mechanism itself.^[34]

Immediate Aftermath

Initial Public and Ecclesiastical Reactions

Upon the announcement of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio's election as Pope Francis on March 13, 2013, cardinals in the Sistine Chapel displayed an enthusiastic and emotional response, with reports describing "not a dry eye in the house" as the new pontiff, wearing a simple wooden cross, accepted his role.^[93] This contrasted with the more reserved demeanor following previous elections and reflected relief at the conclave's swift conclusion after just four ballots over two days, avoiding prolonged uncertainty amid the Church's recent scandals. Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York articulated a collective "sense of relief... and a sense of peace and serenity," attributing the outcome to divine guidance.^[94] Reactions among the electors were mixed regarding Bergoglio's profile as a non-European outsider with a reputation for pastoral humility rather than curial expertise, though his selection signaled a desire for reform-oriented leadership.^[95] Global public and media responses were predominantly celebratory, with world leaders including U.S. President Barack Obama and Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner issuing congratulations emphasizing Francis's potential to bridge divides and focus on the poor.^[96] Mainstream outlets portrayed him as a "breath of fresh air" for his humble style and emphasis on social justice, contrasting with perceptions of his predecessor Benedict XVI's intellectualism.^[97] In Argentina, crowds gathered in Buenos Aires' Plaza de Mayo, expressing national pride over the first Latin American pope, though some noted his past criticisms of government policies.^[98] Protests were negligible worldwide, with public gatherings largely peaceful and joyful, underscoring broad initial optimism despite the Church's internal challenges.^[99] Polls conducted immediately after the election indicated strong approval among Catholics; a Pew Research Center survey from March 18, 2013, found 73% of U.S. Catholics "very" or "somewhat" satisfied with Francis's selection, rising to 79% by September.^[100] Similar sentiments prevailed globally, with minimal dissent reported in contemporaneous data.^[101] Diverse stakeholder views emerged quickly: progressives acclaimed his apparent inclusivity and mercy-focused tone as a shift toward addressing modern social issues without doctrinal compromise, though critics later argued this risked normalizing relativism by prioritizing pastoral accommodation.^[102] Conservatives and traditionalists expressed tempered hopes, appreciating his theological orthodoxy on abortion, marriage, and women's ordination—consistent with his prior stances—but voicing skepticism over liturgical departures like simplified vestments and his history of statements emphasizing collegiality over rigid hierarchy.^[103]^[104] These reactions highlighted an initial consensus on the need for renewal while foreshadowing debates on orthodoxy's implementation.^[95]

Transition to Pope Francis's Pontificate

Following his election on March 13, 2013, Pope Francis initiated the transition by retaining key Curial figures such as Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone as Secretary of State until October 15, 2013, when he appointed Archbishop Pietro Parolin as successor, signaling a gradual approach to administrative restructuring. On March 23, 2013, Francis met with Emeritus Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican, establishing a precedent for cordial continuity between the two pontiffs. In September 2013, he formed the Council of Cardinals (C9), comprising eight cardinals from diverse regions, to advise on Curial reform and governance, directly addressing pre-conclave concerns over Vatican bureaucracy exposed by the Vatileaks scandal. This body represented an early causal link to the conclave's emphasis on transparency and efficiency, though comprehensive dismissals and overhauls, such as the 2022 Praedicate Evangelium constitution, unfolded over subsequent years.^[105] Pope Francis's first major programmatic document, the apostolic exhortation Evangelii Gaudium, promulgated on November 24, 2013, outlined his pontifical agenda, prioritizing missionary evangelization, pastoral outreach to the marginalized, and a Church oriented toward joy and encounter rather than self-referential structures. The exhortation critiqued clericalism and economic inequalities, reflecting Francis's Jesuit background and Latin American perspective, while calling for decentralized decision-making to empower local bishops—elements that echoed the conclave's selection of an outsider pope to revitalize the universal Church's mission. This text served as a foundational blueprint, influencing subsequent administrative priorities without immediate wholesale Curial dismissals.^[106] Benedict XVI, having resigned on February 28, 2013, retreated to the cloistered Mater Ecclesiae Monastery within Vatican City, adopting a life of prayer and study with no involvement in governance. Benedict publicly affirmed he would not interfere in his successor's affairs, a stance corroborated by Vatican statements and observed consistently until his death on December 31, 2022, with no verified claims of influence emerging from archival reviews or ecclesiastical testimonies. This arrangement preserved the singularity of the papal office, avoiding dual-authority tensions that could have undermined the conclave's decisive shift.^[107] In a verifiable demonstration of enhanced episcopal collegiality, Francis convened the III Extraordinary General Assembly of the Synod of Bishops on the Pastoral Challenges of the Family in the Context of Evangelization, held from October 5 to 19, 2014—the first such synod post-conclave—which incorporated broader consultations and divided proceedings into ordinary and extraordinary phases to foster dialogue among bishops worldwide. This process marked an immediate symbolic and administrative pivot toward synodality, contrasting with prior centralized models and aligning with conclave dynamics favoring collaborative reform over unilateral decrees.^[108] Francis achieved rapid global outreach through personal gestures, such as emphasizing simplicity by rejecting papal luxuries and focusing on social justice issues, which bolstered the Church's visibility among the poor and peripheries in line with his chosen name evoking St. Francis of Assisi. However, criticisms arose over the delayed pace of Curial reform, as initial retentions and incremental changes permitted persistent financial scandals and inefficiencies to linger, exemplified by ongoing Vatican Bank probes that predated and outlasted early transitional measures, thereby testing the conclave's reform mandate.^[109]

Long-Term Implications and Revelations

Doctrinal and Institutional Shifts

The election of Jorge Mario Bergoglio as Pope Francis marked a perceptible shift in the Catholic Church's doctrinal emphasis from the intellectual orthodoxy prioritized by Benedict XVI to a greater focus on mercy and pastoral accompaniment. Benedict XVI's pontificate underscored rigorous adherence to traditional teachings, as seen in documents like Deus Caritas Est and his defenses against relativism, aiming to fortify doctrinal clarity amid secular challenges. In contrast, Francis's early encyclical Evangelii Gaudium (2013) highlighted mercy as central to evangelization, critiquing "self-referential" Church structures and urging a "poor Church for the poor," which some analysts interpret as prioritizing relational outreach over strict doctrinal enforcement.^[106] This evolution influenced liturgy by promoting inculturation and accessibility, though later restrictions on the Traditional Latin Mass via Traditionis Custodes (2021) sparked debates on liturgical uniformity versus diversity. On marriage doctrine, Francis's apostolic exhortation Amoris Laetitia (2016) introduced pastoral discernment for divorced and civilly remarried Catholics, allowing access to sacraments in certain cases under accompaniment, a nuance absent in Benedict's firmer stance on indissolubility as outlined in Sacramentum Caritatis (2007). Critics argue this fosters ambiguity, potentially diluting immutable teachings on adultery and Eucharist worthiness, while proponents view it as merciful adaptation to irregular situations without altering core doctrine.^[110] Empirical data on Church vitality under Francis reveals mixed outcomes: global Catholic numbers rose from 1.253 billion in 2013 to 1.406 billion by 2023, driven by Africa and Asia, yet Western attendance plummeted (e.g., U.S. self-identified Catholics fell from 24% to 19% since 2007, accelerating post-2013), with vocations declining 0.57% annually and Latin American adherence dropping sharply (Brazil from 95% to 61%).^[111] ^[112] Such trends, per causal analyses, correlate with perceived doctrinal softening amid secularism, challenging narratives of mercy as universally revitalizing.^[113] Institutionally, Francis advanced synodality through the 2021-2024 Synod on Synodality, emphasizing consultative processes and subsidiarity to decentralize decision-making, contrasting Benedict's more centralized curial reforms via Pastor Bonus revisions. This aimed to foster "a specific style qualifying the Church's life" as a participatory body, yet drew critiques for risking diluted authority and echoing progressive decentralization that historically centralized under Vatican II-era popes.^[114] Scandal handling diverged empirically: Benedict defrocked over 800 priests and reformed canon law for faster laicizations, confronting abuse rooted in post-1960s moral shifts; Francis extended accountability to nuns' exploitation and global summits but faced accusations of leniency in cases like Theodore McCarrick's delayed defrocking (2019).^[115] ^[116] Defenders frame synodality as adaptive to pluralism, countering secular drift; skeptics, citing decline data, contend it normalizes incremental erosion of timeless truths, with liberation theology influences from Francis's Argentine roots blending evangelization zeal—evident in Latin American outreach—with socialism-adjacent critiques of inequality, potentially alienating orthodox faithful.^[117] ^[118]

Subsequent Disclosures and Analyses

In April 2024, Pope Francis revealed in his interview-based book The Successor: My Memories of Benedict XVI that the 2013 conclave involved deliberate political maneuvers by cardinals to sway votes toward specific candidates, including efforts to block certain frontrunners in early ballots.^[87] He described these as typical of conclave dynamics but emphasized their intensity, while denying any personal plans to reform the election process, countering speculation in conservative outlets about changes to favor progressive outcomes.^[87] These admissions partially corroborated earlier leaked accounts of fragmented voting, where no candidate dominated initially, leading to rapid shifts after the fourth ballot on March 13.^[62] Analyses following these disclosures, particularly from conservative Catholic authors, have questioned the conclave's integrity by linking the maneuvers to broader ideological campaigns, as detailed in books like Austen Ivereigh's The Great Reformer (2014), which described organized advocacy for Bergoglio but sparked backlash for implying irregularities.^[119] Critics, including those in outlets like National Catholic Register, argue such lobbying represented a rupture from prior orthodoxy, with some fringe sedevacantist claims alleging invalidity due to alleged external influences, though these lack empirical substantiation beyond anecdotal reports.^[120] Empirical reviews of leaked ballot data, such as a 2019 reconstruction showing votes scattered across over 20 cardinals, indicate partial plausibility in reported tallies (e.g., initial support for Scola around 40-50 votes) but highlight inconsistencies unverifiable under the oath of secrecy, urging realism over conspiracy narratives amid historical precedents of conclave politicking.^[62]^[60] Defenses from ecclesiastical sources invoke providential guidance, positing that divine causality overrides human tactics, as echoed in theological commentaries post-2024.^[120] By October 2025, no major new leaks have been independently verified, with ongoing succession debates—fueled by Francis's health—revisiting these analyses without altering core historical assessments, as cardinals remain bound by perpetual secrecy oaths despite persistent rumors.^[60] This stasis underscores the limits of external scrutiny, where source biases (e.g., ideological tilts in media interpretations) necessitate cross-verification against disclosed facts rather than unproven extrapolations.^[120]

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Feb 26, 2025 · This is the case in the region's most populous countries, Brazil and Mexico, where Catholics fell from 95% to 61% and 99% to 81% respectively ...
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Catholics Are Rapidly Losing Ground - Crisis Magazine
Mar 4, 2025 · Only 19% of Americans self-identify as Catholic, down from 24% in 2007. This is a 20% decrease. By comparison, Protestants decreased by 21%, ...
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Pope Francis's decentralization: Structural, not Doctrinal
Aug 17, 2020 · “Synodality denotes the particular style that qualifies the life and mission of the Church, expressing her nature as the People of God ...
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While blamed, Benedict fought sex abuse more than past popes
Jan 1, 2023 · As cardinal and pope, Benedict pushed through revolutionary changes to church law to make it easier to defrock predator priests, and he sacked hundreds of them.
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Pope admits clerical abuse of nuns including sexual slavery - BBC
Feb 6, 2019 · Pope Francis has admitted that clerics have sexually abused nuns, and in one case they were kept as sex slaves. He said in that case his ...
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13 Times Pope Francis Promoted Liberation Theology
Aug 22, 2017 · ... evangelism efforts, particularly in Latin America: Known as liberation theology, it was a mixture of Marxism and Catholicism that aimed at ...
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The Solved Conflict: Pope Francis and Liberation Theology
Jul 9, 2021 · As an Argentinean theologian, Pope Francis is naturally influenced by Latin American theology. Two of the specifically Latin American ...
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Pope Francis Critics Cite Conclave Conspiracy To Question His ...
Dec 6, 2014 · The furor stems from a behind-the-scenes account of the March 2013 conclave, presented in a new book about Francis titled “The Great Reformer: ...
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Pope Francis and Conclave Secrecy - National Catholic Register
Apr 3, 2024 · In an interview book released in Spanish, Pope Francis revealed details, including voting results, from the 2005 conclave.