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Discouraged worker

A discouraged worker is a person not in the labor force who wants and is available for work but has not actively searched for a job in the recent period because of the belief that no jobs are available for them or none for which they qualify.^[1]^[2] This category emerges from labor force surveys, such as the U.S. Current Population Survey, where individuals report job search discouragement due to perceived market conditions.^[3] Discouraged workers form a subset of those marginally attached to the labor force, distinct from the unemployed who actively seek work, and thus are excluded from the standard unemployment rate (U-3 measure).^[4] Their exclusion can understate the extent of labor market slack, as broader metrics like U-4 incorporate them by adding discouraged workers to the unemployment numerator.^[4] Numbers typically rise during economic downturns, reflecting reduced job prospects that prompt withdrawal from active participation.^[5] Empirical analysis shows discouraged workers often re-enter the labor force when conditions improve, indicating their status is cyclically sensitive rather than permanent detachment.^[6] In recent data, for instance, their ranks fluctuate with business cycles, contributing to debates on the true measure of underutilization beyond headline figures.^[7]

Definition and Characteristics

Core Definition

A discouraged worker is a subset of individuals marginally attached to the labor force, defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as persons who want a job, are available to take one, have actively searched for work within the past 12 months, but are not currently seeking employment due to beliefs that no suitable positions are available, insufficient jobs exist in their field or locality, or other job-market-related discouragements.^[1]^[8] This classification excludes those whose non-search stems from non-market factors, such as transportation issues or childcare responsibilities, distinguishing it from broader non-participation.^[3] Unlike the unemployed, who must demonstrate active job search efforts in the prior four weeks to qualify under BLS criteria, discouraged workers fall outside the labor force entirely, thereby not contributing to the official unemployment rate (U-3 measure).^[1] They are incorporated into alternative underutilization metrics, such as the U-4 rate, which adds their numbers to the unemployed to reflect slack more comprehensively; for instance, in September 2025, the U-4 rate stood at 4.2% compared to the U-3 rate of 4.1%.^[8] Internationally, the International Labour Organization (ILO) aligns closely, categorizing discouraged jobseekers as those outside the labor force who are available for work but abstain from seeking it due to perceived absence of suitable opportunities.^[9] This phenomenon underscores a form of hidden unemployment, where labor force participation drops amid perceived market barriers, often correlating with economic downturns; empirical data from BLS household surveys show discouraged worker counts rising during recessions, such as peaking at 1.2 million in 2010 post-Great Recession before declining with recovery.^[5]^[10] The definition emphasizes subjective perceptions of opportunity scarcity as the causal trigger for withdrawal, rooted in repeated unsuccessful searches rather than voluntary exit.^[6]

Distinction from Other Labor Force Categories

Discouraged workers are categorized by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of those not in the labor force, in contrast to the unemployed, who must actively seek work to qualify for that status.^[3] The unemployed are defined as individuals without a job, available for work, and who have made specific efforts to find employment in the four weeks preceding the survey.^[2] Discouraged workers, however, desire and are available for employment but have not searched for a job in the prior four weeks specifically because they believe no suitable work is available in their area or for their skills, leading to their exclusion from unemployment counts.^[3] Within the broader group of persons not in the labor force, discouraged workers represent a subset of the marginally attached, who want a job, are available, and have looked for work at some point in the past 12 months but not in the last four weeks.^[11] Other marginally attached workers share these criteria but cite reasons for recent inaction other than discouragement, such as family obligations, illness, or lack of transportation or childcare, without attributing it to perceived job scarcity.^[3] This distinction ensures that only discouragement tied to labor market conditions—rather than personal barriers—defines the category.^[11] Individuals not in the labor force who fall outside both discouraged and other marginally attached groups generally do not currently want employment, are unavailable for work, or have not searched for a job within the prior 12 months, encompassing categories like retirees, full-time students, or homemakers without recent job-seeking activity.^[3] These non-marginal groups are thus detached from active labor market engagement, unlike discouraged workers who maintain an expressed interest in employment absent perceived futility.^[2]

Historical Context

Origins in Economic Theory

The concept of the discouraged worker emerged in labor economics during analyses of labor force dynamics in the Great Depression of the 1930s, as researchers grappled with why measured unemployment rates did not fully capture the extent of joblessness amid falling labor force participation. Economists observed that prolonged high unemployment led some individuals to abandon active job searches, believing no suitable work was available, thus exiting the labor force and biasing official statistics downward. This "discouraged worker effect" was contrasted with the "added worker effect," which posited that family members entered the workforce to offset income losses from unemployed breadwinners.^[12]^[13] W.S. Woytinsky, a prominent labor statistician, advanced the discouraged worker hypothesis in his 1942 analysis, arguing that Depression-era data showed net withdrawals from the labor force rather than additions, particularly among secondary workers who became disillusioned by persistent job scarcity.^[14] His work, including a 1940 reply in the Journal of Political Economy to critiques of additional worker claims, emphasized empirical evidence from urban labor markets where participation rates declined despite rising need.^[15] This view challenged prevailing interpretations, such as those later formalized by Clarence Long in his 1953 study The Labor Force in Wartime America, which leaned toward added worker dynamics but acknowledged discouragement in certain demographics.^[16] The theoretical distinction gained traction as the U.S. government refined unemployment measurement in the late 1930s through the Monthly Report on the Labor Force (MRLF), initially coding non-searchers who "believed no work available" separately before adopting the modern definition by 1945, which required active seeking and explicitly excluded discouraged individuals.^[13] This shift, persisting in contemporary standards, underscored the causal link between perceived job prospects and participation, informing broader models of labor supply responsiveness to cyclical conditions. Subsequent empirical tests, drawing on 1930s census data, confirmed the effect's presence, though its magnitude varied by gender and region, with stronger evidence for withdrawals among women and youth.^[17]

Development in Official Statistics

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) initiated systematic identification of discouraged workers through supplementary questions in the Current Population Survey (CPS) during the late 1970s, amid concerns over labor force participation declines during economic stagnation.^[5] These efforts began with an experimental CPS supplement in May 1978, followed by Phase II in December 1979, which specifically probed reasons for non-search among those wanting work, distinguishing discouraged workers—defined preliminarily as individuals believing no suitable jobs were available.^[5] Data from this period revealed links between discouragement and prior job search efforts, though measurements remained supplemental and not integrated into core monthly releases.^[5] In January 1994, the BLS redesigned the CPS, embedding refined questions on marginal labor force attachment into the standard survey and formalizing discouraged workers as a subset of those not in the labor force who wanted work, were available, had searched within the prior 12 months, but ceased active efforts in the last four weeks due to perceived lack of opportunities.^[18]^[1] This change expanded the scope from earlier definitions, which had excluded recent searchers, and enabled monthly tracking via Table A-16, showing, for instance, 251,000 discouraged workers in the first quarter of 2000—the lowest recorded level at that time.^[19] The redesign facilitated alternative underutilization rates, with U-4 incorporating discouraged workers atop the official U-3 unemployment rate, providing a broader gauge of labor market slack.^[18] Historical series for these metrics commence from January 1994, reflecting consistent quarterly and annual reporting thereafter.^[20] Internationally, the International Labour Organization (ILO) incorporated recognition of discouraged workers into labor underutilization frameworks during the 1982 International Conference of Labour Statisticians, viewing them as contributors to the "discouraged worker effect" in participation modeling, where slack markets reduce search activity.^[21] By the 1998 ICLS, ILO standards emphasized active job search for core unemployment definitions, implicitly sidelining discouraged workers from U-3 equivalents but recommending their inclusion in extended measures akin to U-4 or U-5 for comprehensive assessments.^[22] Many national statistical offices, aligning with ILO guidelines post-1990s, adopted similar supplementary indicators, though implementation varied; for example, European Union labor force surveys began tracking marginally attached workers, including the discouraged, in harmonized formats from the early 2000s.^[23] These developments addressed criticisms that standard unemployment metrics underestimated true joblessness by excluding non-searchers responsive to improved conditions.^[24]

Measurement Methods

United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Approach

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies discouraged workers through the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly household survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the BLS, which collects data on approximately 60,000 households representing the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and older.^[1] In the CPS, individuals classified as not in the labor force—neither employed nor actively seeking work—are further probed with supplemental questions to determine marginal attachment: whether they currently want a job, are available to work, have searched for work in the prior 12 months, and the reasons for not searching in the last four weeks.^[3] Discouraged workers are specifically those marginally attached who cite job-market-related reasons for inaction, such as believing no jobs are available, no suitable jobs exist for them, or employers perceive them as unqualified.^[8] This measurement approach ensures discouraged workers are distinguished from other non-participants, like those not seeking work due to childcare, school, or illness, by focusing on availability and recent search history tied to perceived labor market barriers.^[1] The BLS publishes monthly estimates of discouraged workers in the Employment Situation report, particularly in Table A-15 on alternative measures of labor underutilization and Table A-16 on persons not in the labor force.^[8] For instance, in periods of economic downturn, such as the 2008-2009 recession, the number of discouraged workers rose sharply, reflecting cyclical discouragement, with quarterly averages tracked via indicators like those in BLS historical series from 1994 onward.^[10] Discouraged workers are incorporated into broader unemployment metrics beyond the official U-3 rate, forming the basis of the U-4 measure: the total unemployed plus discouraged workers, expressed as a percentage of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers.^[8] This adjustment, published monthly, captures a marginally higher degree of labor underutilization than U-3 by including those detached due to perceived job scarcity, though it excludes other marginally attached individuals without discouragement-specific reasons.^[25] The BLS methodology, grounded in standardized CPS questionnaires revised periodically (e.g., 1994 redesign for improved attachment probes), prioritizes consistency for tracking trends, with data not seasonally adjusted to reveal underlying patterns like recessionary spikes.^[3]

International Labor Organization and Other Standards

The International Labour Organization (ILO), through its International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS), provides guidelines for identifying discouraged workers as part of broader labour underutilization measures, though no binding international standard definition existed prior to refinements in the 19th ICLS resolution of October 2013. Under these standards, discouraged jobseekers form a subset of the "available potential jobseekers" within the potential labour force: individuals not classified in the labour force (neither employed nor actively seeking work) who express a desire to work, are available to start work within two weeks, and did not seek employment in the reference period due to labour market discouragement, such as prior unsuccessful searches, perceived absence of suitable jobs, or lack of qualifications matching available opportunities.^[26] ^[27] This classification distinguishes them from other inactive persons by emphasizing availability and intent, but excludes them from the core unemployment rate (ILO criterion requiring active job search), instead incorporating them into extended indicators like the labour underutilization rate (LU2 or broader).^[28] Measurement follows ILO-recommended household survey protocols, such as the Labour Force Survey framework, where respondents outside the labour force are queried on work preferences, availability, and barriers to seeking employment; responses indicating discouragement (e.g., "believes no work is available") trigger the classification.^[9] The 19th ICLS emphasized harmonized questions to capture these dynamics, enabling cross-country comparability via ILOSTAT databases, which report discouraged jobseekers for over 100 economies, often disaggregated by age (e.g., 15-24 or 25-64) and sex, with data collection typically quarterly or annually.^[29] Earlier ICLS resolutions, like the 13th (1982), laid groundwork by recommending identification of "persons who would have sought work but did not because of discouragement," but lacked operational specificity until 2013 updates addressed gaps in underutilization tracking amid rising global inactivity.^[28] Other international bodies align closely with ILO standards while adapting for regional contexts. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) defines discouraged workers similarly as non-participants who want work, are available, and abstain from searching due to perceived job scarcity, integrating this into harmonized labour force statistics derived from national surveys compliant with ILO concepts; OECD data, covering member states since the 1990s, often highlight discouraged shares in extended unemployment metrics like the U-4 rate (standard unemployment plus discouraged). Eurostat, via the EU Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS), operationalizes the ILO framework for EU member states, classifying "persons available to work but not seeking" (including discouraged jobseekers) as those aged 15-74 who want employment, can start within two weeks, but cite reasons like "no suitable jobs available" or discouragement from past failures; this group is tracked quarterly across 27 EU countries plus candidates, feeding into indicators of labour market slack beyond the standard 6.0% EU unemployment rate as of 2023.^[30] These standards prioritize empirical survey evidence over self-reported intent alone, though variations in question wording across countries can affect comparability, with ILO advocating periodic methodological reviews to mitigate biases.^[31]

Causes and Factors

Cyclical Economic Influences

Cyclical downturns in the business cycle exacerbate the formation of discouraged workers by intensifying job scarcity and extending search durations, leading individuals who desire employment to halt active efforts due to perceived futility. This dynamic, known as the discouraged worker effect, manifests as a countercyclical response in labor force participation, where weakening economic conditions reduce workforce attachment beyond standard unemployment metrics. Empirical evidence from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirms that discouraged workers, defined as those not in the labor force who want work but cite job market-related reasons for not searching, swell during recessions as overall labor market slack expands.^[7] During the 2007–2009 Great Recession, the ranks of discouraged workers rose markedly alongside other marginally attached individuals, reaching a combined 2.1 million by the first quarter of 2009, up sharply from pre-recession levels. This surge reflected broader cyclical pressures, including elevated unemployment rates that averaged 9.3% in 2009 and persistent hiring freezes across sectors, prompting many to disengage from job hunting. BLS data further indicate that such increases are not isolated; historical patterns show discouraged workers fluctuating procyclically in reverse, declining during expansions like the mid-2000s recovery when unemployment fell below 5% and job openings proliferated, drawing previously sidelined individuals back into active search.^[7]^[32] Theoretically, this cyclical sensitivity underscores how aggregate demand shocks propagate through labor supply channels, amplifying downturns by masking true underutilization in official unemployment figures like U-3, which exclude non-searchers. The BLS incorporates discouraged workers into the U-4 measure, revealing heightened slack; for example, U-4 exceeded U-3 by 0.5 percentage points or more during peak recession periods, highlighting the effect's magnitude. In expansions, conversely, rising real wages and employment growth reverse the process, with fewer individuals citing discouragement—evidenced by quarterly averages dropping below 300,000 in strong growth phases post-2010.^[33]^[3] This pattern holds across cycles, as confirmed by time-series analyses distinguishing cyclical from structural drivers of labor force exits.^[34]

Individual and Structural Determinants

Individual determinants of discouragement include demographic and personal attributes that heighten vulnerability to withdrawing from active job search. Older age, particularly beyond 55, is a key factor, with over 35% of long-term discouraged workers in this category since 2010, as prolonged unemployment erodes confidence in re-entry prospects.^[35] Lower educational attainment correlates strongly, as workers citing skill or education deficiencies perceive fewer viable opportunities, with such personal handicaps reported by a notable subset in empirical surveys from the late 1970s and early 1980s.^[5] Health impairments, disabilities, and family obligations further impede search efforts, often leading to nonparticipation even when jobs exist elsewhere.^[36] Structural determinants arise from systemic labor market frictions that amplify perceived job scarcity beyond individual control. Skill mismatches—where worker qualifications fail to align with evolving industry demands—contribute persistently, as evidenced by econometric models linking such imbalances to reduced search intensity.^[37] Geographic immobility, especially in nonmetropolitan regions with sparse employment, fosters discouragement by limiting access to openings, with rural residents overrepresented in marginally attached cohorts.^[38] Discriminatory practices in hiring, including those based on demographics, sustain barriers for affected groups, as noted in analyses of hiring patterns during periods of slack.^[39] These factors interact with individual traits, but their economy-wide nature underscores non-cyclical persistence in labor force detachment.

Economic and Statistical Impacts

Underestimation of Labor Market Slack

The official U-3 unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures only those actively seeking work who are available but unable to find employment, thereby excluding discouraged workers who have ceased job search efforts due to perceived barriers in the labor market.^[8] This omission contributes to an underestimation of labor market slack, defined as the unused potential in the workforce, including individuals who desire jobs but are not counted in the labor force.^[40] Broader BLS measures address this gap: U-4 incorporates discouraged workers, revealing the extent of job-seeker discouragement as the difference between U-4 and U-3; U-5 adds all marginally attached workers; and U-6 further includes those working part-time for economic reasons, providing a more comprehensive view of underutilization.^[4] Empirical data illustrate the magnitude of this underestimation. For example, in March 2025, the U-3 rate was 4.0 percent, while U-6 reached 7.5 percent, with the gap largely attributable to discouraged workers, other marginally attached individuals, and involuntary part-time employment.^[41] During the Great Recession, discouraged workers added approximately 0.5 percentage points to broader measures by its end, but the overall U-6 minus U-3 differential exceeded 6 percentage points at peak, underscoring hidden slack that standard metrics overlooked.^[42] Such discrepancies are cyclical, intensifying in downturns when discouragement rises, as evidenced by BLS tracking of persons not in the labor force who want work but cite job-market reasons for inaction.^[43] Excluding discouraged workers distorts assessments of labor demand and economic health, potentially leading policymakers to overestimate market tightness and delay stimulative measures.^[44] Economists note that this undercounts true job-seeking intent, as discouraged individuals often re-enter the labor force when conditions improve, confirming their underlying availability.^[6] Consequently, reliance on U-3 alone can mask structural weaknesses, fostering overly optimistic views of recovery and full employment.^[45]

Relation to Broader Unemployment Metrics

The standard unemployment rate, designated as U-3 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the percentage of the civilian labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work, thereby excluding discouraged workers who have ceased job search efforts despite desiring employment.^[8] This exclusion results in an underestimation of labor market slack, as discouraged workers represent untapped potential participants who could expand the labor force if conditions improved.^[1] Broader metrics address this limitation by incorporating discouraged workers. The U-4 measure adds discouraged workers to the U-3 numerator and includes them in the denominator (civilian labor force plus discouraged workers), providing a rate that reflects job-seeker discouragement.^[8] U-5 extends this by including all marginally attached workers—those wanting work and available but not actively searching for non-job-market reasons—while U-6 further accounts for involuntary part-time workers, yielding the most comprehensive gauge of underutilization where discouraged workers contribute to the baseline expansion from U-3.^[25] During economic downturns, such as the 2008-2009 recession, the gap between U-3 and U-6 widens significantly due to rising discouraged worker counts, highlighting hidden slack not captured in headline figures.^[6] Internationally, the International Labour Organization (ILO) standards similarly classify discouraged workers outside the active labor force, as unemployment requires active job search and availability.^[46] However, ILO recognizes a "potential labour force" category that includes discouraged job seekers—those available for work but not seeking due to perceived lack of opportunities—enabling expanded underutilization indicators akin to U-5 or U-6.^[47] This approach allows cross-country comparisons of broader slack, though implementation varies, with some nations reporting higher effective unemployment when potential labor force components are factored in.^[48]

Debates and Criticisms

Validity as a Measure of True Unemployment

The U-4 unemployment rate, which incorporates discouraged workers by defining it as the sum of officially unemployed individuals and discouraged workers divided by the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers, represents an attempt to address potential undercounting in the headline U-3 rate. This adjustment recognizes that individuals who want and are available for work but have stopped searching due to beliefs about insufficient job availability reflect latent labor market slack, particularly during downturns when such workers increase alongside official unemployment. For instance, during the 2008-2009 recession, the number of discouraged workers rose sharply, contributing to a U-4 rate that exceeded U-3 by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in peak months, as tracked by Bureau of Labor Statistics data.^[8]^[6] Empirical evidence supports the validity of this inclusion for capturing broader underutilization, as discouraged workers often re-engage in job search when economic conditions improve, indicating that their detachment is cyclically induced rather than purely voluntary. Federal Reserve analyses have shown that accounting for these workers aligns more closely with indicators of labor market tightness, such as help-wanted advertising or subsequent hiring rates, than the strict U-3 measure alone. However, this approach is not without limitations; the self-reported nature of discouragement relies on subjective assessments of job prospects, which may conflate temporary pessimism with structural non-participation, such as early retirement or skill mismatches.^[6] Critics argue that including discouraged workers compromises the conceptual purity of unemployment as a measure of those actively willing and able to work immediately, potentially overstating slack by equating non-search with involuntary idleness. A foundational critique from labor economics posits that without recent job-seeking efforts—required for U-3 classification—discouraged individuals fail to demonstrate current employability, and their numbers may include those deterred by personal barriers rather than aggregate demand shortfalls. Moreover, the U-4 adjustment expands both the numerator and denominator proportionally, often yielding rate differences of less than 1 percentage point even in stressed periods, which questions its incremental value for policy or forecasting over more comprehensive metrics like U-6 that also encompass involuntary part-time workers.^[49]^[4] From a causal standpoint, while discouragement correlates with weak job openings, disentangling it from confounding factors like demographic shifts or welfare incentives remains challenging, as evidenced by stagnant labor force participation trends post-2000 despite varying U-4 gaps. Bureau of Labor Statistics alternative measures thus serve as supplementary indicators of underutilization rather than definitive proxies for "true" unemployment, with validity hinging on context-specific interpretations informed by concurrent data on vacancies and wage growth.^[25]^[6]

Policy Incentives and Behavioral Responses

Unemployment insurance (UI) programs, by providing income replacement without requiring immediate employment, create moral hazard effects that diminish job search incentives among recipients.^[50] These incentives can exacerbate discouragement, as workers facing prolonged joblessness may rationally reduce effort if benefits approximate prior wages, leading some to exit active search and reclassify as discouraged.^[51] Empirical analyses indicate that UI eligibility extends unemployment duration by 10-30% on average, primarily through lowered search intensity rather than elevated reservation wages.^[50] Extensions to UI benefits, often enacted during recessions, amplify these responses by signaling prolonged support, which delays labor force reentry.^[52] For example, during the Great Recession, states with longer UI durations observed slower employment recovery among low-skilled workers, with some transitioning to non-participation amid perceived weak prospects.^[52] Behavioral data show sharp increases in search effort upon benefit exhaustion, suggesting policy-induced inertia in participation; workers who deplete claims reengage at rates 20-50% higher than ongoing recipients.^[50] In the COVID-19 era, 26 U.S. states terminated federal UI supplements by July 2021, citing evidence that payments exceeding wages deterred job acceptance, particularly in sectors like hospitality where offers lagged benefits by 20-40%.^[53] Welfare policies, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), further influence behavior through high effective marginal tax rates on incremental earnings, which can exceed 50-100% when benefits phase out.^[54] Lower benefit levels correlate with higher labor supply elasticities, as reduced generosity prompts exits from welfare rolls and boosts participation; simulations estimate that a 10% TANF cut raises employment probabilities by 2-5% among eligible low-wealth families.^[55] Conversely, generous non-work supports foster dependency traps, where marginal gains from low-wage jobs fail to offset lost aid, encouraging discouraged states among those viewing market reentry as unviable.^[56] Reforms mandating work requirements, as in 1996 U.S. welfare changes, elevated participation by 10-15% in affected cohorts by aligning incentives with employment.^[54] These dynamics underscore causal links between policy design and labor market slack: high-replacement regimes elevate non-participation by subsidizing exit from search, while tightening conditions elicits rapid behavioral shifts toward engagement.^[57] Cross-state variations confirm that jurisdictions with stricter UI work-search mandates exhibit 5-10% lower discouraged worker shares during downturns.^[58]

Regional and Country-Specific Data

United States

In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines discouraged workers as persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work but did not actively search for employment in the prior four weeks due to discouragement, such as believing no suitable jobs are available in their area or for their skills.^[8] These individuals form a subset of the marginally attached to the labor force, who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months but not recently.^[10] The BLS incorporates discouraged workers into broader unemployment metrics, notably the U-4 rate, calculated as the total unemployed plus discouraged workers divided by the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers.^[59] Numbers of discouraged workers fluctuate with economic cycles, surging during recessions when job search prospects dim. During the 2007-2009 Great Recession, marginally attached workers, including discouraged ones, climbed to 2.1 million by the first quarter of 2009, reflecting heightened labor market slack beyond official unemployment figures.^[7] Post-recession recoveries typically see declines, though persistence varies by demographic factors like age, education, and region. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 recession, discouraged workers initially spiked but fell to lows around 2023 before edging upward amid softening labor demand.^[60] As of August 2025, the BLS reported the number of discouraged workers as stable at levels consistent with a U-4 unemployment rate of approximately 4.5% in mid-2025, though exact counts in monthly releases highlight them within marginally attached totals exceeding 1.6 million persons wanting jobs but not actively seeking.^[61]^[62] This undercounts true labor underutilization, as U-4 excludes other marginally attached workers citing non-job-market reasons for inactivity.^[63] Demographic breakdowns show higher discouragement rates among prime-age men and those with lower education, amplifying hidden slack in official statistics.^[10]

Canada

In Canada, discouraged workers are officially termed "discouraged searchers" by Statistics Canada. These individuals, aged 15 years and older, report wanting and being available for paid work during the survey reference week but refrain from actively searching due to the belief that no suitable employment is available.^[64]^[65] They are classified within the Labour Force Survey (LFS) as part of the population not in the labour force yet marginally attached to it, distinct from the unemployed who actively seek jobs.^[64] The LFS has tracked discouraged searchers annually since 1997 under this definition, with historical supplements dating back to 1979 providing supplementary insights into their characteristics.^[66]^[64] Their numbers fluctuate cyclically, peaking during economic contractions; for example, they reached 69.8 thousand in 2020 amid the COVID-19 downturn, then fell sharply to 42.5 thousand in 2021, 22.0 thousand in 2022, and 22.1 thousand in 2023 before rising modestly to 30.1 thousand in 2024.^[67] These figures represent a minor share of the roughly 20 million in the labour force, adding only about 0.15 percentage points to broader unemployment metrics when incorporated.^[67]^[68] Discouraged searchers factor into Statistics Canada's supplementary unemployment rates, such as R5 (official unemployed plus those waiting for recall or replies, plus discouraged searchers), which typically exceed the headline rate (R3 equivalent) by a small margin.^[68] In the broader R8 underutilization rate, which also accounts for involuntary part-time workers, their inclusion highlights hidden labour slack, though empirical data indicate discouragement remains less prevalent in Canada than in the United States, possibly due to differences in social safety nets and job search incentives. As of August 2025, with headline unemployment at 7.1%, supplementary measures incorporating discouraged searchers reached 8.2%, underscoring persistent but contained underutilization amid slowing job growth.^[69]

Australia and European Union

In Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) defines discouraged job seekers as individuals aged 15 and over who are marginally attached to the labour force, desire employment, are available to start work within four weeks, but have not actively sought work in the previous four weeks due to the belief that no suitable positions are available.^[70] This category forms a subset of broader "potential workers," which encompasses those wanting work but not meeting the active job search criterion for unemployment classification. As of February 2025, the ABS reported 1.4 million potential workers without recent job attachment, a decrease from 1.6 million in February 2024, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived labour market barriers amid overall low official unemployment rates around 4.2-4.3%.^[71] Estimates from supplementary ABS data and analyses indicate approximately 272,000 discouraged job seekers in mid-2025, contributing to hidden labour underutilization estimated at over 21% of the working-age population when including broader definitions beyond official metrics.^[72] ^[73] In the European Union, Eurostat incorporates discouraged workers—defined under International Labour Organization (ILO) standards as inactive persons aged 15-74 who want a job, are available to work, but are not actively searching due to discouragement—into its labour market slack indicator, which measures untapped supply including unemployment (5.8% in Q2 2025), underemployment, and potential labour force participants.^[74] Labour market slack stood at 11.7% of the extended labour force in 2024, equating to 26.7 million people, with discouraged workers comprising a significant portion of the potential labour force component.^[75] Recent yearly data estimate 6.13 million discouraged workers EU-wide, down 2.34% from the prior year, though rates vary substantially by member state, with higher incidences in southern economies like Greece and Spain where slack exceeds 15-20% amid structural mismatches and lower growth.^[76] ^[77] This undercounts true slack in official unemployment figures (around 6% EU average in 2025), as discouraged exits from active search mask persistent demand-supply gaps, particularly post-pandemic and amid demographic ageing.^[78]

India and Emerging Economies

In India, discouraged workers significantly contribute to subdued labor force participation rates (LFPR), especially among women and educated youth, amid structural mismatches between job availability and aspirations. The female LFPR was 32.8% in 2022, up from a low of 24.5% in 2018 but still far below the male rate of 61.2%, with discouragement cited as a key demand-side factor alongside domestic responsibilities and inadequate job quality.^[79] Youth (aged 15-29) LFPR fell to 42% in 2022 from 54% in 2000, driven partly by rising education enrollment but also by withdrawal due to perceived employment barriers, as reflected in not-in-employment-education-or-training (NEET) rates of 28.5% overall, surging to 48.4% for females versus 9.8% for males.^[79] This equates to approximately 84.9 million female and 18.5 million male youth NEETs, many of whom represent discouraged individuals opting out after prolonged unsuccessful job searches amid high informality (90% of employment) and skills gaps.^[79] Educated unemployment amplifies discouragement, with graduate youth facing a 28.7% unemployment rate in 2022 and overall youth unemployment at 12.1%, prompting exits from active job-seeking; only 21.9% of vocationally certified individuals under schemes like Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (2015-2023) secured placements.^[79] Periodic Labour Force Survey data indicate that low-quality, informal opportunities in agriculture and construction fail to retain potential entrants, with annual labor force growth of 7-8 million—nearly half educated—straining absorption capacity and perpetuating withdrawal.^[79] Across emerging economies, discouraged workers form a substantial portion of the global potential labor force, estimated at 137 million in 2024, with Asia-Pacific accounting for 76 million such individuals beyond the unemployed.^[80] In lower-middle-income contexts like India, this intersects with added worker effects—where family members enter low-productivity roles to offset income losses—but discouragement dominates among women (jobs gap rate of 15.2% versus 22.5% for men in emerging markets) due to persistent informal employment, mechanization in agriculture, and limited non-farm transitions.^[80]^[81] India's LFPR of 54.5% in 2024, with female participation at 31.4%, underscores broader regional vulnerabilities where demographic pressures exacerbate underutilization without commensurate quality job creation.^[80]

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The U-5 and U-6 mea- sures, which are broader still, include all persons marginally attached to the labor force;. U-6 also includes involuntary part-time ...
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Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Sep 5, 2025 · Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. People ...
[9]
[PDF] KILM 13. Persons outside the labour force
A subgroup of persons outside the labour force comprises those known as discouraged jobseekers, defined as persons not in the labour force, who are available ...
[10]
Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age ...
Jan 29, 2025 · (4) Discouraged workers are persons marginally attached to the labor force who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons ...Missing: definition | Show results with:definition
[11]
A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for ...
(4) Discouraged workers are people marginally attached to the labor force who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as thinks no ...
[12]
Added and Discouraged Workers in the Late 1930s: A Re-Examination
Apr 1, 1993 · We revisit a famous controversy in labor economics: the debate between W.S. Woytinsky and Clarence Long over "added" and "discouraged" worker ...
[13]
[PDF] Origins of the Unemployment Rate - David Card
The modern unemployment definition emerged in the late 1930s, defining it as those not working but actively searching, and this concept emerged by 1940.
[14]
[PDF] Labor and Labor Markets in the 1930s - Upjohn Research
The discouraged-worker effect is the idea that persons without jobs are discouraged from looking for work when the unemployment rate is high. Woytinsky (1942) ...
[15]
A Reply to Mr. Humphrey | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 48, No 5
Additional Workers on the Labor Market in Depressions: A Reply to Mr. Humphrey. W. S. Woytinsky. W. S. Woytinsky. Search for more articles by this author.
[16]
Added and Discouraged Workers in the Late 1930s: A Re-Examination
Margo, 1993. "Added and Discouraged Workers in the Late 1930s: A Re-Examination," NBER Historical Working Papers 0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc ...Missing: peer | Show results with:peer
[17]
[PDF] added and discouraged workers
Added and Discouraged Workers in the Theory of Labor Supply. This section presents â brief discussion of the theory behind the added and discouraged worker ...
[18]
[PDF] BLS introduces new range of alternative unemployment measures
10 As will be discussed later, the definition of discouraged workers was changed in the redesigned CPs introduced in January 1994. For further infor- mation ...
[19]
[PDF] Discouraged and Other Marginally Attached Workers
increased from 10 percent to about 14 percent, and that for other marginally attached workers increased from almost 11 percent to almost 16 percent. Never ...
[20]
Table A-16. People not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by ...
Sep 5, 2025 · (1) Data refer to people who want a job, have searched for work during the prior 12 months, and were available to take a job during the ...
[21]
[PDF] ILO LABOUR FORCE ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS: 1990-2030 ...
The "discouraged worker effect" applies to persons not working ... Labour Force Participation and Development (Geneva, ILO, 1978). Page 18. 17.
[22]
[PDF] The ILO and the informal sector: an institutional history
“Informal sector activities are largely ignored, rarely supported, often regulated and sometimes actively discouraged by the Government.” Chapter 13 and ...
[23]
[PDF] Two decades of national employment policies 2000-2020
Aug 25, 2021 · The ILO has also developed guidelines to undertake rapid assessments of the labour market.107 On this basis, a range of assessments have ...<|separator|>
[24]
[PDF] Regional-labor-force-participation-and-the-discouraged-worker ...
first developed the concept of the "discouraged worker" which relates par- ticipation in the labor force (either in aai employed or an unemployed status) to ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[25]
Alternative measures of labor underutilization
U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers, U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged ...
[26]
Labour Force Statistics (LFS, STLFS, RURBAN databases) - ILOSTAT
Concise description of concepts and definitions, uses, sources and limitations for labour force statistics in various databases (LFS, STLFS, RURBAN).
[27]
[PDF] Some key terms and what they mean
Discouraged workers: People who want to work, but are not seeking work because they believe no suitable job is available for them. Under current ...
[28]
[PDF] Working group on Labour underutilization Beyond Unemployment
Dec 5, 2008 · Under the current international statistical standards, discouraged workers are counted as not economically active, outside the labour force ...
[29]
https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/population-and-labour-force/
[30]
Glossary:Person available to work but not seeking
It includes, among others, discouraged jobseekers and persons prevented from job-seeking due to personal or family circumstances.
[31]
[PDF] Key indicators of youth labour markets: Concepts, definitions and ...
According to the standard classification system, the discouraged worker is counted among the inactive, although many analysts would like to see the number of ...
[32]
[PDF] Trends in unemployment and other labor market difficulties
During the 2007–2009 recession, increases in the number of unemployed and persons working part time for economic reasons were the primary drivers of the ...
[33]
Total Unemployed, Plus Discouraged Workers, Plus All Other ...
The BLS defines discouraged workers as persons who are not in the labor force, want and are available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior ...
[34]
High Unemployment after the Recession: Mostly Cyclical, but ...
In theory, the more labor market churning there is in an economy, the faster the unemployment rate returns to its trend. Intuitively, as unemployed workers ...
[35]
Hidden and Persistent Unemployment Among Older Workers
Dec 20, 2023 · Stigmatized workers who face discrimination in the job market are more likely to become discouraged; Black and Hispanic workers are consistently ...Missing: impact | Show results with:impact
[36]
Discouraged Workers | Definition, Characteristics & Effects - Lesson
A discouraged worker is defined as someone who has previously searched for work, but given up because they are distraught from failing to successfully find a ...Missing: ILO | Show results with:ILO
[37]
[PDF] Structural Analysis of Discouraged Worker Behavior
This paper develops a stochastic structural econometric framework for analyzing discouraged worker behavior based on the theory of job search and the notion of.
[38]
[PDF] Discouraged Workers in the Nonmetro
Variables extracted to gain insights into discouraged worker characteristics include: residential location (metro versus nonmetro), race, gender, age, and ...
[39]
Discouraged Workers: Definition, Causes, and How They Differ from ...
Oct 14, 2024 · According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, discouraged workers are not counted as part of the official labor force or unemployment ...<|separator|>
[40]
What does the unemployment rate measure? - Brookings Institution
Feb 18, 2021 · The BLS releases six measures of labor market slack in the monthly jobs report. These include the official unemployment rate (U-3), discussed ...
[41]
The Six Stages of Unemployment: From Actively Seeking Jobs to ...
Mar 6, 2025 · U-3 at 4.0% is the official US unemployment rate, and U-6 at 7.5% includes those who have given up looking for a job.
[42]
Measuring Labor Force Slack - Milken Institute Review
Dec 10, 2019 · There is an another, superior, yardstick. Since 1994 the BLS has regularly published an “alternative measure of labor underutilization,” ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[43]
[PDF] The Employment Situation - August 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sep 5, 2025 · Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. People ...
[44]
Unemployment: The Curse of Joblessness - Back to Basics
Such discouraged workers are one reason why unemployment statistics can underestimate the true demand for jobs in an economy. Another form of hidden ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[45]
More Than the Unemployment Rate: What Metrics to Watch for on ...
May 1, 2025 · Research found that the post-Great Recession fall in prime-age LFPR was due to individuals without college degrees leaving the labor market.
[46]
Statistics on unemployment and labour underutilization - ILOSTAT
It reflects the inability of an economy to generate employment for those persons who want to work but are not doing so, even though they are available for ...
[47]
[PDF] MEASURING UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE POTENTIAL LABOUR ...
Section I provides a short overview of the latest international recommendations on the measurement of unemployment and the potential labour force included in ...
[48]
[PDF] Measurement of employment, unemployment and underemployment
These standards are set by the International Conference of Labour. Statisticians (ICLS), which is convened by the ILO about every five years. They include: the ...
[49]
Should Discouraged Workers Be Counted as Unemployed? - jstor
usually called "discouraged workers," are not counted as unemployed. To be considered unem- ployed, a person must have looked for work during.
[50]
[PDF] Economic Effects of the Unemployment Insurance Benefit
May 22, 2025 · UI can improve well-being by preventing consumption drops, but may reduce job search incentives, potentially raising unemployment. UI also ...
[51]
[PDF] UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND WORKER MOBILITY
Feb 8, 2018 · worker to become ineligible—moral hazard is an important policy concern. In particular, UI may discourage the eligible unemployed from ...
[52]
Welfare generosity and work - American Economic Association
Jun 1, 2021 · They argue that benefits keep unemployment higher for longer by discouraging workers from searching for their next job. To explore this ...
[53]
Lessons from Unemployment Benefit Expansions during the COVID ...
Oct 12, 2021 · By July, 26 states terminated pandemic-era UI programs early, stating concerns that they discouraged workers from taking jobs that paid less ...
[54]
[PDF] How Welfare and Work Policies Affect Employment and Income
This report examines how welfare, antipoverty, and employment policies affect children and families, covering mandatory employment services, earnings ...
[55]
[PDF] Welfare and Labor Force Participation of Low-Wealth Families
Higher wage rates, lower unemployment rates, and lower TANF benefits decrease the probability of welfare participation. For these families, labor supply is ...
[56]
The Reward of Work, Incentives, and Upward Mobility
Dec 1, 2016 · Broadly, government regulations, taxes and other policies cumulatively reduce the rewards associated with work and offering work opportunities, ...
[57]
How Do Unemployment Benefits Relate to Job Search Behavior?
Those who have exhausted their unemployment benefits search less intensely for work, but are also willing to accept work that pays considerably less than their ...
[58]
Did Unemployment Benefits Discourage Returning to Work During ...
Feb 7, 2024 · If unemployment benefits are too generous, they could act as a disincentive for recipients to reenter the labor force, potentially slowing down recovery.
[59]
Total Unemployed Plus Discouraged Workers, as a Percent ... - FRED
U-4 unemployment rate, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS defines discouraged workers as persons who are not in the labor force, ...
[60]
Recession Talk - AAF - The American Action Forum
Sep 9, 2025 · The number of individuals not in the labor force but who want a job increased by 179,000 in August and 1.36 million since the low in March 2023.
[61]
Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M08 Results
Sep 5, 2025 · ... U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The ... The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally ...Table A-16. People not in the... · Unemployment Rate · Employment Situation
[62]
Total Unemployed Plus Discouraged Workers, as a Percent ... - FRED
Total Unemployed Plus Discouraged Workers, as a Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Plus Discouraged Workers (U-4) (U4RATE) ; Jul 2025: 4.5 ; Jun 2025: 4.5 ; May ...
[63]
[PDF] Alternative Measures of Unemployment and Labor Underutilization
The official number of unemployed excludes certain jobless groups, such as those marginally attached to the workforce and discouraged workers (defined below).Missing: United | Show results with:United<|separator|>
[64]
Guide to the Labour Force Survey, 2025 - Statistique Canada
Apr 4, 2025 · Discouraged searcher (also called Discouraged worker): Since 1997, discouraged searchers are defined as those persons who reported wanting to ...
[65]
[PDF] Labour market characteristics of persons with and without ...
May 14, 2025 · From 2023 to 2024, the employment rate of persons with a less severe disability decreased 1.5 percentage points while it remained virtually ...
[66]
[PDF] "Discouraged Workers" (IS 893 A6)
Discouraged workers are defined in many countries, including Canada, as people who want work and yet are not job-hunting because they believe suitable ...
[67]
Reason for not looking for work, annual - Statistique Canada
Number of persons not in the labour force by reason for not looking for work, gender and age group, annual.
[68]
Supplementary unemployment rates, monthly, unadjusted for ...
Supplementary unemployment rates by gender and age group, monthly.
[69]
The Daily — Labour Force Survey, August 2025 - Statistique Canada
Sep 5, 2025 · One supplementary rate includes people searching for work as well as discouraged searchers—that is, people who did not look for a job because ...
[70]
Not in the labour force | Australian Bureau of Statistics
Feb 15, 2022 · Discouraged job seekers are defined as persons with marginal attachment to the labour force who want to work and could start work within four ...
[71]
Potential workers, February 2025 - Australian Bureau of Statistics
Between February 2024 and February 2025, the number of potential workers without job attachment decreased from 1.6 million to 1.4 million. Over the same period, ...Key statistics · People who want to work · Availability for work · Not looking for work
[72]
More than a million unemployed Australians are job ready - ABC News
Jul 29, 2025 · This month the ABS reported the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3 per cent in June. This meant there were an additional 34,000 unemployed ...Job Mobility Rate For... · 'potential Workers', Job... · Why Jobseekers Felt...
[73]
Officially, the unemployment rate is 4.2%. But that doesn't count all ...
Aug 24, 2025 · Our research shows hidden workers make up 21.1% of Australians aged 15 and over, according to the HILDA 2022 survey data. We use broader ...
[74]
Employment and labour demand EXPERIMENTAL
Unemployment statistics do not include workers who have become discouraged and dropped out of the labour force. Eurostat tables on 'persons available to ...Labour force dymanics · Labour market by economic... · Conclusion · Data sourcesMissing: criteria | Show results with:criteria
[75]
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20251023-2
[76]
European Union Discouraged Workers (Yearly) - Historical Da…
European Union Discouraged Workers is at a current level of 6.130M, down from 6.277M one year ago. This is a change of -2.34% from one year ago.
[77]
Which countries in Europe face the greatest labour market slack?
Sep 21, 2025 · In the EU, labour market slack stood at 11.7% in the second quarter of 2025, according to Eurostat. This figure combines 5.8% unemployment, 2.6% ...
[78]
EU labour market - quarterly statistics - Statistics Explained - Eurostat
Regarding its main component, unemployment, 12.0 million persons were unemployed in Q1 2025. The EU seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.7%, up from 5.6% ...Eu Labour Market - Quarterly... · Unemployment In The Eu... · Data SourcesMissing: discouraged | Show results with:discouraged
[79]
None
Below is a merged summary of the India Employment Report 2024, consolidating all information from the provided segments into a comprehensive response. To retain maximum detail and ensure clarity, I will use a combination of narrative text and tables in CSV format where appropriate (e.g., for statistics and empirical data). The response is organized by the key themes: Discouraged Workers, Labor Underutilization, Potential Labor Force, and Low LFPR Reasons, with additional sections for Empirical Data and Useful URLs.
[80]
[PDF] World employment and social outlook trends 2025
Jan 16, 2025 · The unemployment rate of. 4.2 per cent was relatively unchanged over 2023 and 2024. Hidden beneath this figure, youth unemployment remains a ...
[81]
Discouraged workers in developed countries and added workers in ...
The discouraged worker effect predicts a negative relationship between unemployment and participation. An increase in unemployment (or a reduction in ...