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Global Environmental Multiscale Model

The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) is a numerical weather prediction system developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for integrated atmospheric forecasting and data assimilation across multiple spatial scales, from global to regional and meso-scale resolutions.^[1]^[2] It employs hydrostatic primitive equations solved using a semi-Lagrangian advection scheme and finite-element spatial discretization on a global variable-resolution grid, enabling efficient simulations with resolutions as coarse as 15 km globally or as fine as 1 km in targeted regional domains.^[3]^[4] Initiated in April 1993 through collaboration between the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and the Meteorological Research Branch (MRB), GEM was designed to unify global and regional forecasting capabilities, addressing limitations of prior models like the Regional Finite Element (RFE) system.^[3] It became operational on February 24, 1997, at the CMC. As of 2024, GEM-based systems such as the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) run twice daily to produce forecasts up to 240 hours globally, incorporating a hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate with 80 levels.^[4]^[3]^[5] Key features of GEM include its multiscale architecture, which supports nested uniform-resolution subdomains within global and regional grids (e.g., uniform 0.15° globally or ~1-2.5 km regionally), and a comprehensive physics package handling turbulence, radiation, clouds, convection, and precipitation processes.^[3]^[6] This allows for cost-effective high-resolution modeling, such as meso-γ scale simulations at ~2.2 km, while maintaining computational efficiency—regional forecasts achieve accuracy comparable to uniform high-resolution runs at one-seventh the cost.^[4] Performance evaluations from pre-operational tests (December 1996–February 1997) and post-implementation periods demonstrate reduced biases in tropospheric height, wind, and temperature compared to predecessors, with root-mean-square errors as low as 5.24 m for 48-hour height forecasts over key regions.^[4]^[3] In addition to operational weather prediction, GEM supports research applications in climate studies, environmental modeling, and high-resolution event simulations, such as windstorms, with ongoing developments hosted openly through ECCC's repositories.^[2]^[1] Its adaptability has made it a foundational tool for advancing numerical modeling in Canada and internationally.^[4]

Overview and History

Model Overview

The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) is an integrated numerical weather prediction and data assimilation system developed by the Meteorological Research Division of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), formerly Environment Canada.^[1]^[4] It serves as the core framework for operational atmospheric modeling at ECCC, supporting a wide range of environmental forecasting applications.^[2] GEM's primary objective is to enable seamless multiscale simulations, bridging global to regional domains for accurate short- to medium-range predictions of weather and environmental phenomena.^[4] The model accommodates global configurations with uniform horizontal grids, nested limited-area regional setups, and variable-resolution multiscale approaches that allow refined mesh over areas of interest without abrupt boundaries.^[3] At its foundation, GEM employs a dynamical core solving the hydrostatic primitive equations on a latitude-longitude grid, advanced through a semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian integration scheme for computational efficiency and stability.^[4]^[3] Outputs from GEM are released under Canadian Crown copyright and made freely available to users worldwide, provided proper attribution is given, through ECCC's operational data servers.^[7] The model entered operational use in 1997, initially supporting global forecasting capabilities at the Canadian Meteorological Centre.^[4] GEM supports both deterministic and ensemble prediction modes, with extensions such as GEM-MACH for integrating atmospheric chemistry.^[2]

Historical Development

The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model originated in the 1990s as a collaborative effort by the Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN), the Meteorological Research Branch (MRB), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) within Environment Canada, aimed at creating a unified system to supersede earlier models such as the Regional Finite-Element model and the Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model.^[8]^[9] This development addressed the need for a flexible, multiscale framework capable of seamless transitions from global to regional domains, enabling efficient numerical weather prediction across scales.^[8] A pivotal milestone occurred with GEM's first operational implementation in 1997, establishing it as Environment Canada's primary global forecasting model and marking a shift toward integrated hydrostatic dynamics for routine weather prediction.^[10]^[8] The initial formulation, detailed in seminal work by Côté et al., emphasized a semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian approach on a variable-resolution stretched latitude-longitude grid to enhance computational efficiency and accuracy.^[8] Subsequent evolution included experimental transitions to a non-hydrostatic formulation during the mid-2000s, with testing commencing around 2002 and operational adoption for regional forecasting in 2003.^[10]^[11] A major advancement arrived in 2019 with the introduction of a new dynamical core, developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada researchers, featuring a height-based terrain-following vertical coordinate for superior stability and scalability on high-performance computing platforms.^[12] This update, as described by Husain et al., facilitated higher resolutions and improved handling of complex orography without compromising efficiency.^[12] Institutionally, Environment Canada restructured into Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in 2015, consolidating meteorological research under a climate-focused mandate that influenced GEM's ongoing refinements. In 2020, ECCC's Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate—Meteorological Research Division (ASTD-MRD) open-sourced the GEM core code on GitHub, promoting collaborative enhancements from the global research community while maintaining operational integrity.^[1] Key updates to the model's vertical discretization were outlined by Girard et al. in 2014, introducing staggered coordinates of the log-hydrostatic-pressure type to reduce numerical errors in mesoscale simulations.^[13] Early GEM versions exhibited limited emphasis on ensemble methods, with initial operational ensembles only emerging in the late 1990s and substantive integration occurring in the early 2000s to quantify forecast uncertainty.^[14]^[15]

Technical Framework

Numerical Core

The numerical core of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model is based on the hydrostatic primitive equations formulated in spherical coordinates, encompassing the horizontal momentum, thermodynamic, continuity, and moisture equations. These equations describe the evolution of atmospheric variables such as velocity, temperature, pressure, and specific humidity, with the hydrostatic approximation assuming vertical accelerations are negligible compared to gravitational forces. The horizontal momentum equation in semi-Lagrangian form is given by

\frac{D\mathbf{v}}{Dt} + f\mathbf{k} \times \mathbf{v} = -\nabla \Phi - \frac{1}{\rho} \nabla p + \mathbf{F},

where \mathbf{v} is the horizontal velocity, f is the Coriolis parameter, \Phi is the geopotential, \rho is density, p is pressure, and \mathbf{F} represents forcing terms including physical parameterizations.^[8]^[3] Discretization employs a semi-Lagrangian advection scheme, which integrates trajectories of air parcels to compute advective tendencies, allowing for larger time steps while maintaining stability and accuracy through cubic interpolation along paths. This is coupled with a semi-implicit time-stepping method that treats fast acoustic and gravity waves implicitly to enhance numerical stability, using a two-time-level approach for the Helmholtz equation solution. The scheme ensures second-order accuracy in time and monotonicity preservation via blending techniques.^[8]^[3] The horizontal grid utilizes a Galerkin finite-element formulation on a latitude-longitude mesh, enabling variable resolution configurations such as uniform global domains or stretched regional nests for focused high-resolution areas. This orthogonal basis approach discretizes variables on an Arakawa C-grid staggering, supporting seamless transitions between global and limited-area modes without boundary issues. Example resolutions include uniform global grids at 15-25 km (approximately 0.15°-0.25°) and nested regional domains down to 2.5 km.^[8]^[3]^[12] Vertically, the model employs a hybrid terrain-following coordinate system that combines sigma levels near the surface with isobaric levels aloft, transitioning smoothly to reduce errors over complex topography. Configurations typically feature 25-80 levels, depending on the application, with the model top at around 0.1 hPa; for instance, global setups often use 80-85 levels for enhanced resolution in the troposphere and stratosphere.^[8]^[12]^[16] Computational efficiency is achieved through parallelization via domain decomposition, dividing the grid into subdomains processed concurrently on distributed architectures. In 2019, a fully non-hydrostatic formulation (GEM-H) was developed using a height-based terrain-following vertical coordinate, improving mesoscale accuracy by resolving vertical accelerations explicitly and enabling finer resolutions without hydrostatic assumptions. This update incorporates advanced solvers, such as the flexible generalized minimal residual (FGMRES) method with preconditioning, for the three-dimensional elliptic problems arising in non-hydrostatic dynamics.^[12]

Physical Parameterizations

The physical parameterizations in the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model address sub-grid scale processes that cannot be resolved by the model's dynamical core, ensuring realistic representations of atmospheric phenomena such as radiation transfer, convection, turbulence, cloud formation, and surface interactions. These schemes are integrated within the unified RPN physics package, which allows for nonlinear interactions among components to simulate energy, momentum, and moisture budgets accurately.^[3]^[8] Radiation schemes in GEM employ the CORRALS package for both shortwave and longwave radiation, computing radiative fluxes while accounting for cloud-aerosol interactions to capture scattering and absorption effects from atmospheric aerosols and water vapor. This scheme uses updated optical properties based on Li and Barker (2005), with enhancements to water vapor continuum absorption, methane, and ozone climatology from ERA5 reanalysis, alongside a solar constant of 1,361 W/m². Post-2015 versions have incorporated improved aerosol-climate interactions, refining the treatment of aerosol radiative forcing and its feedback on atmospheric stability.^[3]^[17] Convection parameterization distinguishes between deep and shallow regimes, using the Kain-Fritsch scheme for deep convection, which employs trigger functions based on convective available potential energy (CAPE) to initiate updrafts. CAPE is calculated as

\text{CAPE} = \int_{LFC}^{EL} g \frac{T_p - T_e}{T_e} \, dz,

where g is gravitational acceleration, T_p is the parcel temperature, T_e is the environmental temperature, LFC is the level of free convection, and EL is the equilibrium level; this integral quantifies buoyancy for parcel ascent, with adjustable entrainment and detrainment for momentum transport. Shallow convection is handled via a mass-flux approach from Bechtold et al. (2001), replacing earlier moisture convergence methods to improve water conservation and reduce non-conservative sinks. An additional midlevel convection scheme addresses low-CAPE environments, triggered by resolved vertical mass flux exceeding thresholds like 1 × 10⁷ kg/s in global configurations.^[17]^[8] The boundary layer parameterization relies on a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme, prognostic for vertical mixing of momentum, heat, and moisture over land, water, and ice surfaces. Drawing from Bélair et al. (1999) and Bougeault and Lacarrère (1989), it incorporates a mixing length formulation with reduced buoyancy production (20% over oceans) to better simulate stable layers and surface drag influenced by orography and land use. This approach enhances the representation of turbulent fluxes near the surface, interacting with land and ocean schemes to modulate near-surface winds and temperatures.^[17]^[3] Microphysics is parameterized using a multi-moment bulk scheme, specifically the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme from Morrison and Milbrandt (2015) in high-resolution configurations, which predicts mass and number concentrations for cloud water, ice, rain, snow, and graupel, including sedimentation and riming processes. For coarser resolutions, a legacy Sundqvist et al. (1989) diagnostic scheme partitions hydrometeors, but P3 offers improved handling of mixed-phase clouds and precipitation efficiency in complex terrain. These schemes link directly to convection outputs, ensuring consistent moisture transport and fallout.^[17] Land surface processes are modeled primarily with the Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) scheme, based on Noilhan and Planton (1989), which simulates soil moisture evolution, vegetation effects on evapotranspiration, and snow cover dynamics through multi-layer soil thermodynamics. Alternatives like the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) from Verseghy (1991, 1993) are available for specific applications, allowing flexibility in resolving surface energy balances and hydrological cycles. Recent updates include treatments for supercooled rain over frozen surfaces.^[17]^[8] For ocean and sea ice, GEM employs simplified slab models in standalone atmospheric runs, such as the Zeng and Beljaars (2005) mixed-layer ocean scheme for upper-ocean heat storage, with sea ice emissivity set to 0.97 for radiative interactions. In regional or coupled seasonal prediction modes, GEM interfaces with the NEMO ocean model (1° resolution, 50 vertical levels) and CICE sea ice component, exchanging fluxes of heat, momentum, and freshwater to represent air-sea coupling more dynamically.^[17]^[18] These physical parameterizations interact with the dynamical core by providing tendency terms for temperature, moisture, and winds at each time step, ensuring the model's overall conservation properties while approximating unresolved scales. Modernization efforts post-2015, including conservation corrections from Catry et al. (2007), have enhanced energy budget consistency across the package.^[17]

Operational Implementations

Deterministic Systems

The deterministic systems of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model provide high-resolution, single-member forecasts for operational weather prediction at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). These configurations emphasize precise point predictions without probabilistic perturbations, relying on variational data assimilation to initialize the model state from observational data. The primary systems include the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS), Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), and High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS), each tailored to different spatial scales and forecast horizons while nested within one another for consistency.^[19] The GDPS delivers global forecasts extending up to 10 days at a horizontal resolution of 15 km, utilizing 84 vertical levels from the surface to the upper stratosphere. Updated twice daily at 00Z and 12Z, it integrates the GEM atmospheric model with coupled ocean (NEMO) and sea ice (CICE) components for comprehensive medium-range predictions. The RDPS, nested within the GDPS, focuses on North America with forecasts up to 84 hours at 10 km horizontal resolution and up to 33 vertical levels, produced four times daily to support short-range guidance. Complementing these, the HRDPS provides ultra-high-resolution forecasts up to 48 hours at 2.5 km over a pan-Canadian domain, downscaled from the RDPS to capture severe weather events like thunderstorms and heavy precipitation, also updated four times daily.^[19]^[20]^[21]^[22] Data assimilation in these systems employs an incremental four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) approach to incorporate observations from diverse sources, including satellite radiances, weather radar reflectivities, and surface measurements such as temperature and wind. For the GDPS, the assimilation cycle spans 24 hours, optimizing the model state over a global domain, while the RDPS uses a 6-hour cycle for regional refinement; the HRDPS inherits initial conditions from the RDPS without independent assimilation. This process minimizes analysis errors by balancing model background states with observational constraints, enabling accurate initialization for deterministic integrations.^[23]^[24]^[25] Output from these systems consists of gridded fields for key meteorological variables, including near-surface wind speed and direction, air temperature, accumulated precipitation, and sea-level pressure, available in standard formats like GRIB2. Data are disseminated through the ECCC Datamart service, with legacy image-based products, which were scheduled for decommissioning by the end of 2025, in favor of direct access to numerical fields via tools like MSC GeoMet. These outputs support operational decision-making in aviation, marine safety, and public warnings.^[5]^[7] Performance evaluations indicate significant improvements in deterministic forecast skill following core upgrades, such as those implemented around 2019 and in 2024 (GDPS version 9.0.0), with root mean square error (RMSE) reductions of approximately 20% in medium-range global predictions compared to prior versions, particularly for upper-air geopotential heights and temperatures. For instance, the transition to hybrid ensemble-variational methods in the RDPS and GDPS has enhanced short-range accuracy over North America by better representing mesoscale features. These gains underscore the value of deterministic runs for high-confidence forecasts, in contrast to ensemble systems that quantify uncertainty through multiple perturbed members.^[26]^[24]^[27]

Ensemble Systems

The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model employs ensemble prediction systems to generate multiple forecast scenarios, enabling the quantification of uncertainty in weather predictions through probabilistic outputs. These systems produce a set of perturbed simulations that capture variability in initial conditions and model physics, providing users with measures such as ensemble means, spreads, and probabilities that reflect potential forecast outcomes.^[28] The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) is the primary global configuration, consisting of 20 perturbed members plus one unperturbed control run, extending forecasts up to 16 days at approximately 25 km horizontal resolution using a Yin-Yang grid.^[29] It incorporates about 84 hybrid vertical levels up to a model lid at 0.1 hPa and is updated twice daily at 00Z and 12Z. Initial perturbations in GEPS are generated using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) applied to ensemble data assimilation, while stochastic physics perturbations include Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPPT) for varying parameters like those in convection schemes and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Back-scattering (SKEB) to represent subgrid-scale variability.^[16]^[29]^[30] For regional applications, the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) delivers short-range probabilistic forecasts with 20 perturbed members plus a control, covering up to 72 hours at 10 km resolution over North America, including Canada and the United States, on 24 vertical levels.^[31] It runs four times daily and perturbs initial and boundary conditions from the global system, along with physical tendencies to enhance spread in mesoscale features.^[31]^[32] Post-processing in both GEPS and REPS involves bias correction techniques to calibrate ensemble outputs, yielding probabilistic products such as the probability of precipitation exceeding 10 mm, derived from the distribution of member forecasts.^[33] These systems share data assimilation approaches with deterministic GEM runs, ensuring consistent initialization across configurations. Validation assessments demonstrate spread-skill consistency, where ensemble standard deviation correlates positively with error growth, particularly in the first week for variables like 500 hPa geopotential height, indicating reliable uncertainty estimates.^[34] GEPS ensembles are integrated into multi-model frameworks, such as the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), which blends outputs with those from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) to extend range and improve skill for medium- to long-lead forecasts.^[35]

Applications

Weather and Environmental Forecasting

The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model serves as the core of Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) operational numerical weather prediction systems, including the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) and Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). These systems generate outputs that underpin public weather forecasts, aviation predictions for turbulence and icing, and marine warnings for wave conditions and storms, all managed through the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC).^[36] The integration ensures timely delivery of high-impact weather information to support decision-making across sectors, with GEM's variable-resolution grid enabling seamless transitions from global to regional scales for enhanced accuracy in Canadian domains.^[1] High-resolution GEM outputs are particularly vital for precipitation and storm forecasting, providing detailed predictions that inform flash flood alerts and winter storm warnings in Canada. For instance, the regional GEM configuration simulates precipitation accumulation to identify intense rainfall events, aiding emergency responses in vulnerable areas like river basins and coastal zones. This capability extends to severe weather scenarios, where GEM's non-hydrostatic dynamics capture mesoscale features essential for operational alerts. For medium-range environmental outlooks, GEM is coupled with ocean models such as NEMO and the sea ice model CICE within the GDPS framework, facilitating bidirectional exchanges of heat, momentum, and moisture. This coupling reduces errors in cyclone intensification forecasts by up to 21% for tropical systems and lowers geopotential height standard deviations by 15% in active regions, supporting outlooks up to 10 days.^[37] GEM data are accessible in GRIB2 format through ECCC's MSC GeoMet platform and Datamart services, with API endpoints enabling developer integration; with the planned decommissioning of legacy image products by the end of 2025, the focus has shifted to these digital formats.^[7] Notable applications include the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics, where experimental high-resolution GEM nests (1-km and 2.5-km grids) driven by the operational 15-km regional model delivered precise wind, temperature, and precipitation forecasts, outperforming coarser runs and reducing temperature biases by over 1°C.^[38] Similarly, during the 2021 British Columbia floods, GEM-powered RDPS and GDPS forecasts captured the extreme atmospheric river precipitation, informing provincial flood warnings up to 9 days in advance.^[39] However, GEM exhibits a persistent weak-intensity bias in tropical cyclone predictions, underestimating central pressures by 6–15 hPa due to numerical dissipation and resolution limits; mitigation involves parameter adjustments and post-processing to align intensities with observations.^[40] Globally, ECCC shares GEM outputs with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) centers via international exchanges, enhancing collaborative forecasts and model verification under WMO guidelines.^[41]

Research and Specialized Uses

The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model has been extended through the GEM-MACH system, particularly in versions 2 and later, to integrate atmospheric chemistry with meteorological simulations for advanced air quality forecasting. This coupling incorporates chemical transport modules that simulate the evolution of pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), enabling detailed predictions of their dispersion and transformation. GEM-MACH operates as an online meteorology-chemistry model, processing emissions, advection, and deposition in a unified framework to support research on urban and regional air pollution dynamics.^[42] In hydrological research, GEM has facilitated event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, particularly in challenging mountainous terrains where high-resolution precipitation data is critical. A verification study in the upper Skawa catchment in Poland demonstrated GEM's utility when coupled with the HEC-HMS model, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values up to 0.79 for heavy rainfall events, indicating strong performance in simulating peak flows under antecedent moisture conditions derived from 5-day precipitation totals. This approach highlights GEM's role in addressing uncertainties in orographic precipitation for flood risk assessment in small basins (~240 km²).^[43] GEM contributes to climate research by enabling downscaling of global models like the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) for regional scenarios, leveraging its flexible grid to refine projections at convection-permitting resolutions. In Arctic studies, limited-area GEM simulations at 3 km (convection-permitting) resolution have been used to investigate amplification effects, capturing enhanced surface warming and sea ice feedbacks over five-year integrations driven by reanalysis data. These applications provide insights into regional climate variability, such as altered precipitation patterns and temperature extremes in northern domains.^[44] Academic collaborations have prominently featured GEM in numerical weather prediction (NWP) verification efforts, including the 2022 MDPI study on its integration for flood modeling in mountainous environments, which validated GEM-derived precipitation against gauge observations and hydrological outputs. Such papers underscore GEM's adaptability in interdisciplinary NWP assessments, often comparing model outputs to empirical data for parameter refinement.^[43] Open-source applications of GEM have emerged through GitHub repositories, allowing researchers to contribute custom physics modules and experiment with model extensions like GEM-MACH for tailored simulations. Integrations with machine learning techniques for bias correction have been explored, using neural networks to adjust GEM forecasts against observations, improving accuracy in variables such as temperature and precipitation. These efforts facilitate community-driven enhancements, particularly for regional adaptations. In 2025, this approach was implemented in an experimental release of the GDPS, where GEM is spectrally nudged toward predictions from the Global Environmental eMuLator (GEML), an AI model based on GraphCast, demonstrating improved skill for longer lead times.^[45]^[46]^[47] In specialized domains, GEM supports air quality alerts via GEM-MACH's pollutant forecasting capabilities, informing public health responses to episodic events. For renewable energy, post-processing of GEM outputs has been applied to solar and photovoltaic power predictions, with hourly forecasts up to 48 hours ahead showing improved skill through statistical corrections of global horizontal irradiance.^[48] Wind and solar forecasting benefits from GEM's high-resolution configurations, aiding grid integration in Canada. Event-specific simulations, such as wildfires, utilize GEM for meteorological inputs in systems like the Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) and FireWork, modeling smoke plume dispersion and fire weather indices.^[49]^[50] Post-2017 research has addressed gaps in GEM's experimental applications, including 2024 studies on AI-hybrid approaches that benchmark data-driven models against GEM to enhance NWP resolution and reduce biases in Canadian forecasts. These hybrid frameworks combine GEM's physics-based core with machine learning emulators, demonstrating potential for faster, more accurate subseasonal predictions.^[46]

Advancements and Future Directions

Recent Updates

In 2019, the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model received a major upgrade to its dynamical core, transitioning to non-hydrostatic, fully compressible equations implemented on a height-based vertical coordinate system. This enhancement improved stability over steep terrain and enabled higher mesoscale resolution, facilitating more accurate simulations of convective processes and regional weather patterns. The changes were detailed and evaluated in a study by Qaddouri and Lee, demonstrating superior performance compared to the previous hydrostatic core in idealized and real-case forecasts.^[12] Following this upgrade, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) open-sourced the GEM model code via a GitHub repository in 2020, promoting collaboration, code review, and contributions from the scientific community to refine documentation and implementations. The repository, maintained by ECCC's Meteorological Research Division, supports ongoing development and has been referenced in subsequent research for model extensions and validations.^[1] In preparation for enhanced data accessibility, ECCC announced the decommissioning of legacy Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) image products derived from GEM by the end of 2025. This transition directs users to the Meteorological Service of Canada's (MSC) Datamart platform and associated APIs, which provide programmatic access to gridded forecast data and metadata for broader integration into applications and research workflows.^[7] Performance improvements from 2021 to 2023 included the integration of stochastically perturbed parameterizations (SPP) within GEM's ensemble systems, generating independent random patterns to better capture model uncertainty and expand ensemble spread for medium-range predictions. These updates, implemented in operational configurations, were assessed for their impact on forecast reliability, showing reduced biases in key variables like precipitation and temperature.^[51] By 2024, hybrid approaches combining GEM with AI-driven weather models emerged, using spectral nudging to align GEM's large-scale outputs with machine learning predictions, thereby enhancing overall forecast accuracy for extended lead times. Such integrations, explored in recent evaluations, outperform standalone GEM simulations in capturing tropical cyclone tracks and global patterns.^[52] The release of GEM version 5.0 in 2020 marked further refinements, including increased vertical resolution to approximately 80 levels from the surface to the upper atmosphere, allowing finer representation of boundary layer processes and tropospheric dynamics essential for extreme event forecasting, such as heatwaves. These capabilities align with ECCC's broader post-2020 emphasis on climate-resilient modeling, contributing to national adaptation efforts through more reliable predictions of environmental risks. Evaluations of the upgraded system indicate improved performance in hemispheric geopotential height and temperature fields.^[12]

Planned Developments

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) aims to advance the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model by leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) for effective downscaling to achieve convection-permitting scales of 1-2 km in regional domains.^[53] This progression builds on recent upgrades to enhance forecast detail for mesoscale phenomena.^[54] Planned coupling expansions include full integration of GEM with comprehensive Earth system components, such as ocean, sea ice, and biosphere models, to support seamless seasonal-to-decadal predictions.^[53] For instance, the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) is set for complete coupling with the NEMO ocean model, promoting greater interconnectivity across atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric processes.^[54] AI and machine learning (ML) integration features prominently in future GEM enhancements, with hybrid physics-ML models utilizing GEM outputs for super-resolution downscaling and uncertainty quantification.^[53] Pilots for these hybrid systems, including validation of open-source AI models like GraphCast, are scheduled through 2025-2027, aiming for operational technology transfer by 2026 and broader adoption by 2030.^[53] As of November 2025, the development of PARADIS, a Canadian AI-driven global weather model, is ongoing to complement GEM by accelerating predictions and enabling larger ensembles to mitigate uncertainty. The Global Deterministic Prediction System with Spectral Nudging (GDPS-SN), a hybrid AI-physics system, is planned for operational implementation by winter 2026.^[54] Sustainability efforts focus on optimizing GEM for exascale high-performance computing systems, including AI accelerators planned for ECCC's HPC renewal around 2028, to minimize the energy footprint of simulations.^[53] These optimizations aim to balance growing computational demands with reduced power consumption.^[54] Research priorities emphasize improved representations of climate extremes, urban effects, and aerosol feedbacks within GEM, alongside hybrid AI enhancements to data assimilation and physics parameterizations.^[53] Key challenges include addressing model biases in polar regions and fostering international collaborations through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to refine these aspects.^[54]

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[25]
Implementation of Deterministic Weather Forecasting Systems ...
The new system provides improved forecast accuracy relative to the previous system, based on results from two sets of two-month data assimilation and forecast ...
[26]
Data and Products of the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)
The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements.
[27]
None
### GEPS Specifications Summary
[28]
[PDF] Review of the perturbation methods in the MSC GEPS - ECMWF
The forecast perturbations are coming from set a multi-physical parameterizations as well as two stochastic approaches (physical tendencies perturbations and ...
[29]
Readme reps en - MSC Open Data / Données ouvertes du SMC
### REPS Details
[30]
A Regional Ensemble Prediction System Based on Moist Targeted ...
A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) with the limited-area version of the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model at 15-km horizontal ...Missing: details | Show results with:details
[31]
Spread Calibration of Ensemble MOS Forecasts in - AMS Journals
Jul 1, 2013 · The spread–skill relationships are one-term linear regression equations that predict the expected accuracy of the ensemble mean given the ...
[32]
Hydrological Evaluation of the Canadian Meteorological Ensemble ...
Jun 28, 2017 · Forecasts of comparable skill and spread are obtained, with CCMEP-based forecasts showing better spread during the first week, and GEFS v2–based ...
[33]
A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble ...
The present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada ( ...
[34]
Numerical Model Charts - Environment Canada
For instance, the GEM Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) model operates on cells that are each 0.3 degree of latitude by 0.45 degree of longitude.<|control11|><|separator|>
[35]
Impact of Coupling with an Ice–Ocean Model on Global Medium ...
Here, we provide an evaluation of the impact of an interactive air–sea coupling between an operational global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting ...Missing: outlooks | Show results with:outlooks
[36]
An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the ...
Aug 11, 2012 · Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.
[37]
[PDF] Towards a Coherent Flood Forecasting Framework for Canada
Jul 14, 2023 · Forecasts are run daily for up to 9 days lead time. The system utilizes RDPS (48 hours) and GDPS (10 days) forecasts, produced by ECCC's GEM ( ...
[38]
Reducing a Tropical Cyclone Weak-Intensity Bias in a Global ...
The model continues to suffer from a conditional intensity bias: tropical cyclones with best track central pressures above 980 hPa are associated ...
[39]
Full article: Performance of the Canadian Arctic Prediction System ...
Apr 5, 2023 · ... ECCC routine operational verification. We consider verification ... The Operational CMC–MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model.
[40]
Implementation of the MOSAIC aerosol module (v1.0) in the ... - GMD
Sep 26, 2025 · GEM-MACH is an air quality extension of the GEM forecast model (Girard et al., 2014, and references therein). For the source code see ECCC ( ...
[41]
Application of Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Numerical ...
This article aims to verify whether Global Environmental Multiscale numerical precipitation prediction can be successfully applied for event-based rainfall– ...Missing: vertical | Show results with:vertical
[42]
Coordinated Global and Regional Climate Modeling in - AMS Journals
... Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model (Côté et al. 1998), which was ... Application to CanRCM4 downscaling of CanESM2. Application of this ...
[43]
(PDF) Simulating Canadian Arctic Climate at Convection-Permitting ...
Apr 9, 2025 · 3 km resolutions using limited-area version of the global environmental multi-scale (GEM) model. The model is integrated for ﬁve years driven by ...Missing: CanESM | Show results with:CanESM
[44]
GEM-MACH regional air quality chemistry module - GitHub
GEM-MACH is an extension of ECCC's standard GEM numerical weather prediction model, a version of which is available from a Github repository.Missing: atmospheric | Show results with:atmospheric
[45]
Leveraging data-driven weather models for improving numerical ...
Jul 24, 2024 · The dynamical core of the GEM model solves the elastic Euler system of equations using an iteratively implicit semi-Lagrangian approach (Girard ...<|separator|>
[46]
The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System version 1.0 - GMD
Nov 5, 2024 · The Global Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (GFFEPS) is a model that estimates biomass burning in near-real time for global air quality forecasting.
[47]
Operational Evaluation of a Wildfire Air Quality Model from a ...
May 12, 2022 · FireWork is an augmented version of ECCC's operational Global Environmental Multiscale–Modeling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH; Gong et al.
[48]
(PDF) Solar and photovoltaic forecasting through post‐processing of ...
Aug 7, 2025 · Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. The GEM forecasts and the solar and PV data used for. comparisons are described in Section ...
[49]
Using Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations to Represent ...
We conclude that SPP in the Canadian Global Ensemble Forecasting System produces realistic estimates of the impact of model uncertainties on forecast skill.Missing: ETKF | Show results with:ETKF
[50]
Leveraging Data-Driven Weather Models for Improving Numerical ...
0-a4 of the GEM model, which is available to download at https://github.com/ECCC-ASTD-MRD/gem/commits/5.3-branch/. Additional code for spectral nudging as ...
[51]
Artificial intelligence integration roadmap for numerical weather and ...
Oct 7, 2024 · It presents an overview of how AI can be integrated into ECCC's Research-Development-Operation (RDO) production chain for weather and environmental predictions.Missing: GEM | Show results with:GEM
[52]
[PDF] ECCC's HPC and the Transformation of Weather Services
a 24/7 mission- ...<|control11|><|separator|>