Hail Mary pass
A Hail Mary pass in American football denotes a long forward pass thrown in desperation, usually toward the end of a game or half when the offense trails and requires a touchdown to tie or win, with success hinging on improbable factors like tipped receptions or defensive lapses.[1] The term derives from the Catholic "Hail Mary" prayer, invoked for divine intervention in dire circumstances, and gained widespread usage after Dallas Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach, a devout Catholic, described his 50-yard game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Drew Pearson against the Minnesota Vikings in a 1975 divisional playoff game as such: he closed his eyes, prayed a Hail Mary, and threw without looking.[2][3] Though earlier allusions to "Hail Mary" passes exist in college football contexts dating to the 1920s and 1930s, particularly around Notre Dame, Staubach's remark cemented the phrase for the high-risk, low-odds desperation heave in professional play.[4] Over time, advancements in quarterback arm strength, receiver athleticism, and offensive schemes have marginally improved their efficacy, with NFL data indicating roughly one success per 12 attempts in the past decade, often enabled by specialized protections and precise fundamentals rather than sheer luck.[5] Iconic examples include Staubach's original, which propelled Dallas to victory by 17-14, and subsequent NFL miracles like Brett Favre's 2009 sideline strike to beat the San Francisco 49ers, underscoring the play's enduring role in dramatic turnarounds despite inherent improbability.[6]Definition and Characteristics
Technical Definition
A Hail Mary pass denotes a forward pass in American football executed as a high-risk, low-probability desperation play, generally attempted when the offense trails by multiple scores with seconds remaining in the half or game, requiring substantial yardage—often a touchdown—to alter the outcome. Unlike routine passes, it involves the quarterback launching the ball with maximal velocity and arc to cover extreme air distance, typically exceeding 40 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, allowing multiple receivers to flood the end zone and contest possession amid clustered defenders.[5][7] Empirical analysis of NFL attempts since 2009 reveals an average air distance of 44.7 yards for such passes, with completion rates hovering around 8.3% (approximately one success per 12 throws), underscoring the play's reliance on factors like tip-drill recoveries, defensive lapses, and probabilistic physics rather than targeted accuracy. The absence of an official definition in NFL rulebooks classifies it as colloquial terminology, yet its technical essence lies in the strategic abandonment of intermediate options for an all-or-nothing trajectory, where hang time (often 4-5 seconds) facilitates contested catches but amplifies interception risks.[9] Execution demands specialized quarterback arm strength capable of 60+ yard throws under pressure, with receivers employing vertical routes sans precise spacing to maximize chaos in the red zone; defensive countermeasures prioritize height contests and ball-hawking over man coverage, as the play's geometry favors jump-ball dynamics over route-running precision.[5] This distinguishes it from bomb passes or deep posts, which retain higher completion odds through structured reads, rendering the Hail Mary a statistical outlier suited solely to end-game variance.[9]Execution Mechanics
In a Hail Mary pass, the offense typically aligns in a standard passing formation, with all eligible receivers—often four or five—sprinting straight downfield at maximum speed to converge in or near the end zone, creating a clustered target area for the incoming ball. The quarterback, facing imminent pressure from the defensive rush, prioritizes evading the pocket to extend the play, averaging 4.75 seconds of protection time to allow receivers sufficient distance to settle underneath the trajectory.[5] This scramble often involves rolling out to the throwing-arm side, facilitating easier mechanics for a 50-60 yard launch compared to a stationary drop-back.[10] Quarterback throwing mechanics emphasize generating maximum distance with a high arc to combat defensive coverage and enable receiver tracking. Weight shifts predominantly to the back leg to elevate the front shoulder while dropping the back shoulder, producing a "moonshot" trajectory that peaks early and descends steeply into a precise 4-5 yard window deep in the end zone, typically 44.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on average.[5] The arm executes a deeper "draw" or pull-back, releasing the ball farther behind the head—often with a crow-hop step for balance and torque—to impart loft rather than velocity, avoiding a flat line drive that defenders can more easily intercept.[5] [11] Force application varies from 80% to full extension based on factors like wind and field position, with practitioners like Aaron Rodgers stressing body rotation akin to swinging a baseball bat on the label for optimal power transfer.[5] Receivers execute by maintaining straight-line sprints to minimize separation risks, then leaping in a contested scrum to high-point or tip the ball—taller players (e.g., 6-foot-7 targets) often prioritizing deflection to open teammates over individual catches.[5] Success hinges on the ball's hang time, allowing the group to cover ground and contest possession before it hits the ground or sails out of bounds.[5]Distinguishing Features from Standard Passes
The Hail Mary pass differs from standard passes primarily in its extreme length and desperate context, typically involving a forward pass exceeding 40 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, often launched in the final seconds of a half or game when a team trails and requires a touchdown to tie or lead.[5] Standard passes, by contrast, encompass shorter to intermediate distances integrated into routine offensive schemes, with completion rates far exceeding the Hail Mary's approximate 8-9.7% success probability.[5] [1] Mechanically, the Hail Mary employs a high-arcing trajectory to maximize hang time, allowing multiple receivers to converge in the end zone and contest for tipped or falling balls, whereas standard passes favor lower, faster trajectories for precision and to evade defenders en route.[12] This lob-like throw prioritizes reach over accuracy, frequently resulting in incomplete passes that fail to enter the end zone or veer out of bounds, unlike the targeted spirals of conventional plays designed for specific receiver routes.[1] Strategically, the play's low expected value stems from inherent risks amplified by distance and defensive positioning, where interceptors or knockdowns dominate outcomes, contrasting with standard passes that leverage blocking, route timing, and quarterback-receiver synchronization for higher efficacy.[13] Success often hinges on defensive lapses or fortuitous tips rather than repeatable fundamentals, rendering it unsuitable for non-crisis scenarios.[13]Historical Development
Early Precursors and Long Passes
The forward pass was legalized in American college football in 1906 as part of reforms to reduce on-field fatalities by opening up the game beyond mass formations and runs. Initially, passes were short and tactical, often thrown just beyond the line of scrimmage to counter rushing linemen; the first documented legal completion occurred on September 5, 1906, when St. Louis University's Bradbury Robinson threw a 20-yard pass to teammate Jack Schneider against Carroll College.[14][15] These early attempts prioritized quick laterals over distance, reflecting rule restrictions that limited passes to behind the line and penalized incompletes harshly, with the ball moved back on failures. A pivotal demonstration of passing's potential came in the November 1, 1913, college game between Notre Dame and Army, where quarterback Gus Dorais completed 14 of 17 passes—many to end Knute Rockne—for 243 yards, including longer throws that exploited Army's run-focused defense expecting traditional ground play.[16] This upset victory, 35-13, highlighted aerial strategy's viability for gaining significant yardage, though passes rarely exceeded 30-40 yards due to ball shape and quarterback techniques favoring spirals over high arcs. Dorais and Rockne had refined their passing during summer lifeguarding, emphasizing timing over raw distance, which influenced coaching shifts toward integrated air attacks in subsequent decades. In the nascent NFL (then APFA), forward passes were permitted from 1906 but remained rare and short until rule evolutions; a 1933 amendment allowed throws from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage, eliminating the prior five-yard setback and enabling deeper drops for velocity and range.[17] Sammy Baugh epitomized this progression upon debuting with the Washington Redskins in 1937, leveraging a slimmer football introduced in 1934 for better grip and flight; he led the league in passing six times, including a 1937 game with a 78-yard touchdown strike to Dick Todd among four long-scoring throws totaling high yardage on limited attempts.[18] Baugh's accuracy on 50-plus-yard attempts—completing 1,693 of 2,995 career passes for 21,886 yards—normalized long passes as offensive staples rather than novelties, setting mechanical precedents like drop-back protection that later informed desperation scenarios, though such throws were still calculated risks amid incomplete penalties and defensive adaptations.[19]Coining and Popularization of the Term
The term "Hail Mary pass" derives from the Catholic prayer "Hail Mary," invoked in moments of desperation, and was first applied to football plays in the context of the University of Notre Dame during the 1920s and 1930s. Members of Notre Dame's famed "Four Horsemen" backfield, including Elmer Layden and Jim Crowley, reportedly used the phrase to describe low-probability, last-ditch efforts on the field, reflecting the team's Catholic heritage and the prayer's connotation of seeking divine intervention.[20][4] In a 1932 speech at the American Football Coaches Association convention, Crowley explicitly referenced a "Hail Mary" play as a desperate forward pass attempt, marking one of the earliest documented public uses of the term in football terminology.[4] The phrase gained its modern connotation and widespread popularity in professional football through Dallas Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach's performance on December 28, 1975, during the NFC Divisional playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings. Trailing 14-10 with 32 seconds remaining, Staubach dropped back from the Cowboys' 50-yard line, closed his eyes briefly, and threw a 50-yard desperation pass toward the end zone, which receiver Drew Pearson caught for the game-winning touchdown in a 17-14 victory.[2][21] Post-game, Staubach attributed the success to a spontaneous "Hail Mary" prayer he uttered before the throw, stating, "I closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary. I just threw it up for grabs."[22] This instance, broadcast nationally and replayed extensively, transformed the term from a niche college football expression into a standard NFL descriptor for long, improbable touchdown passes attempted in the final seconds, influencing subsequent media coverage and coaching lexicon.[7] Prior to 1975, such plays existed but lacked the unified branding; Staubach's Catholic background and explicit invocation cemented the religious metaphor's endurance in the sport.[2]Notable Examples
NFL Instances
The most iconic NFL Hail Mary pass occurred on December 28, 1975, during the NFC Divisional playoff game between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings at Metropolitan Stadium. With no time remaining and trailing 14-17, Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach dropped back from shotgun formation, pump-faked, and launched a 50-yard desperation pass toward the end zone, which wide receiver Drew Pearson caught for the game-winning touchdown, securing a 17-14 victory. Staubach later attributed the success to a pre-throw prayer, coining the term "Hail Mary" to describe the improbable play.[21][2] Another prominent example took place on September 27, 2009, in a regular-season matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. Vikings quarterback Brett Favre, facing a 20-24 deficit with 12 seconds left from his own 32-yard line, scrambled under pressure and delivered a precise deep pass to wide receiver Greg Lewis in the back corner of the end zone for a touchdown, clinching a 27-24 win with two seconds remaining.[23][24] On December 3, 2015, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers executed a 61-yard Hail Mary touchdown to tight end Richard Rodgers as time expired in a Week 13 game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, erasing a 23-27 deficit for a 30-24 victory known as the "Miracle in Motown." The pass, thrown from the Packers' 39-yard line after a controversial penalty extended the play, marked one of Rodgers' multiple successful long desperation attempts.[25][26] The "Minneapolis Miracle" unfolded on January 14, 2018, in the NFC Divisional playoff between the host Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints at U.S. Bank Stadium. Vikings quarterback Case Keenum, down 23-24 with 10 seconds left from midfield, threw a 27-yard pass to wide receiver Stefon Diggs near the sideline; Diggs evaded a tackle and ran untouched for a 61-yard touchdown, securing a 29-24 win and advancing to the NFC Championship. Though involving broken coverage rather than a pure end-zone heave, the play's dramatic walk-off nature cemented its status as a modern Hail Mary exemplar.[27][28] In the January 15, 2012, NFC Divisional game, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning connected with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks on a 37-yard Hail Mary touchdown just before halftime against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, contributing to a 37-20 upset victory that propelled the Giants toward Super Bowl XLVI. The score, from the Giants' 45-yard line amid swirling snow, shifted momentum in the playoff matchup.[29][30]College Football Instances
On October 10, 1980, Brigham Young University (BYU) quarterback Jim McMahon launched a 41-yard desperation pass to wide receiver Clay Brown in the final seconds against Southern Methodist University (SMU), converting a potential loss into a 46-45 victory after trailing by five points with under a minute remaining.[6] This play, executed from BYU's 44-yard line amid heavy defensive pressure, marked an early prominent use of the Hail Mary strategy in college football, relying on a high-arcing trajectory to evade interception and allow multiple receivers to contest the ball in the end zone.[6] The most iconic college Hail Mary occurred on November 23, 1984, when Boston College quarterback Doug Flutie, scrambling under duress on the final play, heaved a 48-yard touchdown pass to Gerard Phelan to defeat the University of Miami 47-45.[6] With Boston College trailing 45-41 and no timeouts left, Flutie's improvisational throw—described by witnesses as a low-percentage lob sailing 60 yards in the air—tipped off multiple defenders before Phelan secured it in the end zone, propelling Flutie to Heisman Trophy honors and cementing the play's cultural legacy.[31] The desperation pass succeeded due to Miami's aggressive defense leaving the deep coverage vulnerable, though its outcome hinged on unpredictable deflections and positioning.[6] Another landmark instance unfolded on September 24, 1994, as the University of Colorado, trailing the University of Michigan 26-21 with six seconds left, saw quarterback Kordell Stewart attempt a Hail Mary from his own 48-yard line; the pass deflected off Michigan defenders' hands before wide receiver Michael Westbrook corralled it for a touchdown, securing a 27-26 win in Ann Arbor.[31] Dubbed the "Miracle of the Big House," the play involved six Colorado receivers converging in the end zone and succeeded amid chaos, though Colorado's victory was later vacated by the NCAA due to unrelated recruiting violations, not impugning the on-field execution.[31] On November 16, 2002, in the "Bluegrass Miracle," Louisiana State University (LSU) quarterback Matt Mauck connected with tight end Maurice Mauck—no relation—for a 75-yard touchdown on a fourth-down Hail Mary immediately after Kentucky's game-winning field goal had put the Wildcats ahead 30-27 with 11 seconds remaining.[32] Triggered by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Kentucky that gifted LSU favorable field position near midfield, the pass traveled approximately 64 yards in the air, eluding coverage through precise placement and receiver separation, resulting in a 34-30 LSU triumph.[32] This sequence underscored how procedural errors can amplify Hail Mary viability, transforming a near-certain defeat into an improbable reversal.[32]International and Other Leagues
In the Canadian Football League (CFL), which features a larger playing field and distinct rules compared to American football variants, Hail Mary passes have produced memorable game-altering plays despite the lower overall frequency due to strategic differences like greater emphasis on short passes and motion. One prominent example occurred on July 26, 2012, during a regular-season game when Winnipeg Blue Bombers quarterback Alex Brink launched a desperation long pass that receiver Chris Matthews hauled in for a touchdown against the Montreal Alouettes, highlighting Matthews' emerging talent in a season where he amassed 81 receptions for 1,119 yards and earned Most Outstanding Rookie honors. More recently, in the CFL's 2023 Western Final on November 11, BC Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. executed a Hail Mary touchdown pass to wide receiver Justin McInnis with one second remaining in the first half, connecting from approximately 50 yards out to cut the Winnipeg Blue Bombers' lead to 18-10 at halftime in a contest the Lions ultimately lost 24-13; the play briefly energized BC's comeback bid amid Adams' 13-of-25 passing performance for 221 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.[33][34] In European American football leagues, such as the German Football League (GFL) or the defunct NFL Europe, the Hail Mary concept has been employed in desperation scenarios, but no instances have achieved the same level of documentation or fame as North American counterparts, reflecting the sport's niche status and smaller audiences outside professional North American circuits.Empirical Analysis
Success Rates and Statistical Data
In the National Football League (NFL), Hail Mary passes exhibit low success rates, reflecting their high-risk nature as desperation plays typically attempted from midfield or beyond in the final seconds of halves or games. Analysis by ESPN Stats & Information tracked 193 such attempts from the 2009 season through 2019 across regular-season and playoff games, yielding 19 completions and 16 touchdowns, for a touchdown conversion rate of approximately 8.3%. These passes averaged 44.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, with outcomes often hinging on factors like time elapsed before release (averaging 4.75 seconds) and defensive pressure.[5]| Metric | Value (2009–2019 NFL) |
|---|---|
| Attempts | 193 |
| Completions | 19 |
| Touchdowns | 16 |
| Completion Rate | ~9.8% |
| Touchdown Success Rate | ~8.3% |
| Average Air Yards | 44.7 |