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Indeterminism

Indeterminism is a philosophical doctrine that rejects the principle of determinism, positing that not all events in the universe are fully caused or necessitated by prior states and laws of nature, thereby allowing for genuine contingency, chance, or alternative possibilities in the future.^[1] This view contrasts with determinism, where a complete description of the initial conditions and governing laws would uniquely predict every subsequent event.^[2] In essence, indeterminism asserts the existence of multiple real possibilities at any given moment, enabling outcomes that are not inevitable.^[3] The concept traces its origins to ancient Greek philosophy, particularly emerging in the 5th century BCE through Sophistic debates on human responsibility and causation, as seen in Gorgias's arguments that external compulsions could absolve individuals of blame, challenging strict causal necessity.^[4] During the Hellenistic period (circa 323–31 BCE), Epicurean philosophers like Epicurus advanced indeterminism by distinguishing universal causation from rigid determinism, maintaining that while every event has a cause, swerves or atomic deviations introduce chance, preserving human freedom and moral agency without descending into chaos.^[4] These early ideas laid the groundwork for ongoing debates about whether indeterminism undermines predictability or instead supports ethical responsibility. In modern philosophy, indeterminism gained renewed prominence through scientific developments, particularly in 20th-century physics. Classical mechanics, as formulated by figures like Pierre-Simon Laplace in 1814, exemplified determinism by suggesting that perfect knowledge of initial conditions could predict all future states, but exceptions even in Newtonian systems—such as certain gravitational scenarios leading to non-unique evolutions—hinted at indeterminism.^[2] Quantum mechanics, with its probabilistic interpretations like the Copenhagen view, provided empirical support for indeterminism at the subatomic level, where events such as radioactive decay exhibit inherent randomness rather than strict causation.^[2] Philosophers have since explored "branching histories" models, where the universe unfolds as a tree of possible futures, emphasizing local indeterminism without global chaos.^[3] A central application of indeterminism lies in the free will debate, where it underpins libertarian theories of agency, arguing that undetermined choices enable genuine moral responsibility, as opposed to compatibilist views that reconcile free will with determinism.^[3] Critics, however, raise the "luck objection," questioning whether indeterminism introduces randomness that erodes control rather than enhancing it.^[3] Despite these challenges, indeterminism remains influential in metaphysics, influencing discussions on potentialities, evolutionary biology (e.g., random mutations), and even relativity, where singularities can disrupt unique evolutionary paths.^[2] Overall, it offers a framework for understanding a universe of openness and creativity, countering mechanistic visions of inevitability.

Core Concepts

Definition and Scope

Indeterminism is a philosophical and scientific doctrine positing that not all events in the universe are fully determined by preceding causes and conditions, thereby permitting genuine chance, randomness, or alternative possibilities in outcomes. This view contrasts with determinism by rejecting the idea of a single, fixed trajectory for all processes, allowing instead for openness in how events unfold.^[5]^[6] The term "indeterminism" originates from the Latin prefix "in-" (not) combined with "determinism," derived from "determinare" (to limit or bound); its earliest recorded philosophical usage dates to 1874 by philosopher William George Ward, amid late 19th-century debates on free will and moral responsibility. William James played a key role in popularizing the concept in his 1884 essay "The Dilemma of Determinism," where he described indeterminism as affirming a "pluralism" in reality, with parts exhibiting "loose play" rather than rigid causal chains. By the early 20th century, the term had evolved to encompass broader applications in scientific discourse on probability and causation.^[5]^[7]^[8] In scope, indeterminism addresses metaphysical questions about whether reality inherently includes uncaused or underdetermined elements, epistemological issues concerning the limits of prediction and knowledge, and ontological inquiries into the fundamental nature of existence and possibility. It ranges from absolute indeterminism, which posits events entirely devoid of causation, to relative indeterminism, where only certain processes or outcomes escape full determination while others remain causally fixed. This broad framework underscores indeterminism's role as a foundational concept across philosophy and science, without presupposing uniformity in all domains.^[9]^[10]

Contrast with Determinism

Determinism posits that every event in the universe is strictly necessitated by preceding causes in conjunction with the laws of nature, rendering the entire course of events fully predictable in principle if complete knowledge of initial conditions and laws is available. This conception is epitomized by Pierre-Simon Laplace's 1814 thought experiment of an intellect—later dubbed "Laplace's demon"—capable of deducing the past and future states of the universe from the positions, velocities, and natural laws governing all particles at any given moment.^[11]^[12] In stark contrast, indeterminism rejects the notion that all outcomes are inevitable, asserting instead that causation does not always dictate a single, unavoidable result; rather, it permits genuine alternatives and elements of chance, where events can unfold in non-necessary ways despite prior causal influences. Under determinism, there are no true contingencies or forks in the causal chain—every state evolves uniquely from its antecedents—whereas indeterminism allows for outcomes that are causally influenced yet not exhaustively determined, preserving room for variability without implying acausality.^[11] This deterministic framework gained prominence in the 17th and 18th centuries through Isaac Newton's mechanics, which modeled the universe as a precise, law-bound mechanism akin to a clock, where universal gravitation and motion laws ensured predictable trajectories for all bodies.^[12] However, this classical view faced significant challenges from developments in 20th-century physics, which introduced theoretical grounds for indeterminacy and undermined the assumption of universal predictability.^[11] Logically, deterministic systems entail a fixed trajectory from any set of initial conditions, closing off alternative possibilities, while indeterministic ones permit branching futures from identical starting points, opening the door to multiple realizable paths.^[11]

Intrinsic Indeterminism versus Epistemic Unpredictability

Intrinsic indeterminism posits that certain events lack complete causal determination at the ontological level, meaning that even with full knowledge of antecedent conditions and laws, multiple outcomes remain possible due to inherent objective chances or brute facts without sufficient prior causes.^[13] This form of indeterminism is fundamental to the world itself, independent of human limitations, and allows for genuine randomness as an irreducible feature of reality.^[14] In contrast, epistemic unpredictability arises from limitations in human knowledge or computational capacity, where outcomes appear random but are in principle determined by underlying causes; the randomness is subjective, stemming from incomplete information or the complexity of systems rather than any ontological gap.^[13] For instance, chaotic systems like weather patterns exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, making long-term predictions practically impossible despite operating under deterministic laws. The philosophical distinction between these concepts emerged prominently in analytic philosophy during the early 20th century. This differentiation is essential for interpreting phenomena like radioactive particle decay, which exemplifies potential intrinsic indeterminism through inherently probabilistic outcomes even under ideal measurement conditions.^[14] Such distinctions inform debates in quantum mechanics, where intrinsic elements challenge classical predictability.^[14]

Probabilistic and Insufficient Causation

In the framework of indeterminism, causation often manifests as necessary but insufficient, where a cause is required for the possibility of an effect yet does not inevitably produce it. This form of causation allows for multiple potential outcomes following a given cause, aligning with indeterministic systems that lack full predictive certainty. A key articulation of this concept comes from J.L. Mackie's analysis of causal conditions, which emphasizes that everyday causal explanations typically involve factors that are essential yet incomplete on their own.^[15] Mackie formalized this through the notion of INUS conditions: an insufficient but non-redundant part of an unnecessary but sufficient condition. Here, a cause C contributes to a complex of conditions that together suffice for the effect E, but C alone neither necessitates nor guarantees E, and the full complex is one among possible sufficient sets. For instance, striking a match in humid conditions may be necessary for ignition but insufficient without additional factors like dryness, illustrating how indeterminism accommodates causal pluralism without deterministic closure. This approach resolves issues in regularity theories of causation by accommodating overdetermination and alternative pathways, central to indeterministic explanations.^[15]^[16] Probabilistic causation builds on insufficient causation by incorporating stochastic elements, where causes elevate the likelihood of effects without ensuring them, often modeled through probability distributions. In such accounts, a cause C renders an effect E more probable, formalized as P(E|C) > P(E|\neg C), but with P(E|C) < 1, reflecting inherent randomness rather than epistemic gaps. This framework is particularly suited to indeterminism, as it treats probabilities as objective features of causal mechanisms, enabling explanations in systems where outcomes vary despite identical initial conditions. Seminal developments in this area, such as those addressing spurious correlations via conditional independence, underscore how probabilistic models distinguish genuine causal influence from mere associations.^[17] Formally, basic probability concepts like conditional probability P(E|C) capture the evidential bearing of a cause on its effect, quantifying the shift in likelihood without implying determinism. Under objective interpretations of probability, such as the propensity theory, these values represent real tendencies or dispositions in the causal structure, not subjective beliefs, thereby grounding indeterminism in measurable yet non-certain processes. If probabilities are objective and less than unity, full determinism fails, as the future remains open to variation. Indeterminism thus relates to chance as a system of weighted possibilities, where objective probabilities assign varying degrees of likelihood to outcomes, avoiding the arbitrariness of pure caprice. In propensity-based views, chance emerges from the inherent dispositions of causal setups, providing a structured alternative to deterministic necessity while preserving explanatory power. This conception, influential in philosophical analyses of uncertainty, portrays indeterminism as channeled randomness rather than unguided chaos.

Philosophical Perspectives

Ancient Greek and Classical Views

The origins of indeterminism in ancient Greek philosophy can be traced to the Sophistic debates of the 5th century BCE, which explored human responsibility and causation. Sophists like Gorgias argued in works such as Encomium of Helen that external compulsions—such as divine will, persuasion, or physical force—could absolve individuals of blame, thereby challenging strict causal necessity and introducing notions of contingency in human actions.^[4] In ancient Greek philosophy, the origins of atomism are attributed to Leucippus in the 5th century BCE, who, along with his associate Democritus, developed a materialist theory positing that the universe consists of indivisible atoms moving through a void, with all phenomena arising from mechanical collisions governed by necessity.^[18] This framework implied a strictly deterministic cosmos, where every event follows inevitably from prior atomic interactions, leaving no room for chance or deviation.^[19] Aristotle, in the 4th century BCE, critiqued such mechanistic views by incorporating teleological causation into his physics, emphasizing final causes that direct natural processes toward purposeful ends. He introduced the concept of tyche (chance or fortune) as an incidental cause, occurring when an action's purpose aligns accidentally with an unrelated event, rather than as an intrinsic randomness disrupting causality; for instance, finding treasure while traveling for business exemplifies tyche as unpredictable but not uncaused.^[20] Aristotle viewed such chance events as indeterminate in outcome due to their incidental nature, yet subordinate to the overall deterministic structure of efficient and final causes.^[21] The Pyrrhonist school, emerging around the 3rd century BCE with Pyrrho of Elis, advanced a form of skepticism that fostered epistemic indeterminacy through the suspension of judgment (epochē) on all dogmatic claims. Pyrrhonists argued that equal arguments on both sides of any issue render beliefs indeterminate, as sensory impressions and rational inferences fail to yield conclusive knowledge, leading to an ongoing unpredictability in epistemic commitments rather than ontological randomness.^[22] This approach, later systematized by Sextus Empiricus, positioned indeterminacy as a therapeutic tool for achieving tranquility by avoiding assertive beliefs.^[23] Epicurus, in the 4th–3rd centuries BCE, adapted atomism to counter its deterministic implications by positing the clinamen or atomic swerve—a spontaneous, minimal deviation in atoms' straight-line motion through the void—to initiate unpredictable collisions and break causal chains. This indeterminism was essential for preserving free will, as it allowed agents to initiate actions not wholly predetermined by atomic necessity, thus refuting the fatalism of earlier atomists like Democritus.^[18] Epicurus argued that without such swerves, the will would be enslaved to fate, undermining moral responsibility.^[24] In the Roman classical period, Lucretius (1st century BCE) popularized Epicurean indeterminism in his poem De Rerum Natura, vividly describing the swerve as a rare but crucial atomic declination that enables free action and explains the diversity of the world. He contended that the swerve disrupts the parallel fall of atoms, fostering volition and creativity against a backdrop of mechanical laws, thereby extending Greek atomism into a broader critique of superstition and determinism.^[25]

Early Modern and Enlightenment Developments

In the Early Modern period, occasionalism emerged as a response to challenges in Cartesian philosophy, particularly mind-body interaction, positing that God intervenes continuously to produce effects in a mechanistic universe. While René Descartes envisioned a universe governed by divine laws, his ideas on continuous creation and dualism inspired followers to develop occasionalism, where God acts as the true cause in response to occasions provided by finite substances, such as the mind's volitions causing bodily motions.^[26] This view implied an indeterministic role for divine will, as God's direct causation superseded natural mechanical chains, allowing for interruptions in predictable sequences without relying on creaturely powers. Nicolas Malebranche extended this occasionalist framework more radically in the late 17th century, asserting that all causal efficacy resides solely in God, who acts as the true cause of every event in a seemingly mechanistic world. In response to the deterministic implications of Cartesian physics, Malebranche argued that created substances, including bodies and minds, possess no intrinsic causal powers; instead, God produces all modifications—such as sensations or movements—upon the "occasion" of natural events, introducing theological indeterminism through divine sovereignty over a clockwork-like creation.^[26] This perspective preserved the uniformity of natural laws while attributing ultimate unpredictability to God's free will, countering the rise of a fully deterministic cosmology.^[27] Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, critiqued pure chance and occasionalism while proposing his doctrine of pre-established harmony as an alternative. Leibniz envisioned the universe as composed of monads—simple, non-interacting substances—synchronized from creation by God's infinite wisdom, ensuring apparent causal interactions without true efficient causation among creatures.^[28] This harmony rendered the system ultimately deterministic, as every event unfolds according to the initial divine plan, yet it allowed for the illusion of indeterminism in human experience; Leibniz rejected absolute chance as irrational, arguing it would undermine God's rational order.^[29] During the Enlightenment, David Hume's empiricism further eroded confidence in deterministic necessary connections, attributing the perception of causation to habitual association rather than objective necessity. In his analysis, repeated observations foster an expectation of constant conjunction, but no impression of intrinsic power or inevitability exists, thereby opening conceptual space for indeterministic liberty in human actions, where choices need not be rigidly compelled by prior causes.^[30] Immanuel Kant, building on such skepticism in his 1781 Critique of Pure Reason, framed the tension in the Third Antinomy of pure reason, where the thesis asserts universal determinism through causal chains and the antithesis posits freedom as an uncaused beginning for moral agency.^[31] Kant resolved this by distinguishing phenomenal determinism in sensory experience from noumenal freedom, allowing indeterminism in the realm of practical reason without contradicting empirical causality. The era's theological and philosophical shifts coincided with mathematical advancements in probability, notably Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (1713), which rigorously formalized the calculus of chance through combinatorial analysis and the law of large numbers. By treating probability as a measurable degree of certainty amid uncertainty, Bernoulli's work provided tools to model indeterministic processes, influencing Enlightenment views by legitimizing chance as a structured feature of reality rather than mere ignorance.

Modern and Contemporary Debates

In the late 19th century, Charles Sanders Peirce introduced the concept of tychism, positing objective chance as a fundamental aspect of the universe that drives the evolution of natural laws.^[32] Tychism, derived from the Greek word for chance, asserts that spontaneity and irregularity are real features of reality, countering strict determinism by allowing for genuine novelty in cosmic processes. Peirce integrated this with his pragmatism, viewing chance not as mere ignorance but as an active force in the development of habits and laws, where the universe evolves from pure possibility toward increasing regularity through probabilistic mechanisms.^[32] Building on such ideas in the 20th century, Karl Popper championed indeterminism as essential to creativity and the growth of knowledge, arguing that strict predictability undermines human progress. In his work, Popper critiqued deterministic views of history and science, asserting that the unpredictable nature of conjectural knowledge advancement—through bold hypotheses and rigorous falsification—requires an open, indeterministic universe. He maintained that indeterminism enables the piecemeal evolution of theories, fostering intellectual freedom and rejecting the "poverty of historicism" that presumes inevitable social predictions.^[33] In the 1930s, physicist Arthur Holly Compton extended indeterminism to philosophical debates on agency, suggesting that quantum events introduce genuine unpredictability that can be amplified to influence human decisions. Compton proposed that microscopic quantum uncertainties, such as those in electron paths, could propagate through neural processes to macroscopic choices, thereby preserving free will without violating physical laws. He argued that this amplification allows for alternative actions that are physically possible yet not predetermined, bridging quantum indeterminacy with conscious volition.^[34] Libertarian theories gained prominence in the late 20th century through Robert Kane's framework, which ties free will to ultimate responsibility via indeterministic self-forming actions (SFAs). Kane contends that agents achieve moral responsibility by engaging in SFAs—undetermined choices during moral or prudential dilemmas that shape character and will, ensuring that later actions originate from the agent's own efforts rather than prior causes. These SFAs, often involving conflicting motivations, provide the "ultimate control" required for libertarian free will, distinguishing it from mere chance by emphasizing rational effort amid indeterminism.^[35] In the 21st century, Mark Balaguer has explored indeterminism within mathematical platonism, particularly in set theory, where the abstract realm permits undecidable propositions without fixed truths. Balaguer's full-blooded platonism posits that all consistent mathematical objects exist, resulting in a "bush-like" structure of the mathematical universe with multiple compatible set-theoretic models, rendering statements like the Continuum Hypothesis indeterminate—neither definitively true nor false. This view accommodates mathematical indeterminism by allowing diverse axiomatic extensions, challenging traditional notions of unique mathematical reality while aligning with platonist realism.^[36] Contemporary debates continue to grapple with whether indeterminism supports or undermines moral responsibility, exemplified by Peter van Inwagen's consequence argument, which posits that if determinism holds, agents lack the ability to do otherwise, rendering them unaccountable. Van Inwagen argues that past events and natural laws inexorably determine the future, so free actions require breaking this chain through indeterminism to enable alternative possibilities essential for blame and praise. This incompatibilist stance fuels ongoing discussions, with libertarians like Kane affirming indeterminism's role in responsibility, while compatibilists seek reconciliation without it, highlighting tensions in ethical philosophy.^[37]

Scientific Applications

Mathematics and Formal Systems

In mathematics, indeterminism manifests through foundational results that reveal inherent limitations in formal systems, where certain truths cannot be captured by proofs within the system itself. Kurt Gödel's incompleteness theorems, published in 1931, demonstrate that in any consistent formal system capable of expressing basic arithmetic, there exist statements that are true but neither provable nor disprovable within the system. These undecidable propositions introduce a form of indeterminacy in provability, as the system's axioms cannot determine the truth value of all arithmetical statements, highlighting an intrinsic gap between mathematical truth and mechanical derivation.^[38] For instance, Gödel constructed a self-referential sentence asserting its own unprovability, which, if the system is consistent, must be true yet unprovable, underscoring the indeterminism embedded in the structure of formal logic. Randomness in mathematics further exemplifies indeterminism through concepts that resist algorithmic compression or prediction. Andrey Kolmogorov's theory of complexity, developed in the 1960s, defines the complexity of a finite sequence as the length of the shortest program that can produce it, with truly random sequences being those that are incompressible—meaning no shorter description exists than the sequence itself. This approach formalizes randomness not as mere unpredictability but as an objective property of mathematical objects that cannot be simplified algorithmically, implying inherent indeterminacy in sequences lacking patterns. Building on this, Gregory Chaitin's constant, known as Ω (omega), represents the halting probability of a universal Turing machine and is an uncomputable real number whose binary digits are algorithmically random, resisting full computation by any algorithm.^[39] Chaitin's work shows that Ω encodes undecidable information about program halts, reinforcing mathematical indeterminism by linking randomness to limits in computability.^[39] Probabilistic models in mathematics introduce indeterminism by incorporating chance into rule-governed processes, where outcomes vary despite fixed transition rules. Stochastic processes, such as Markov chains, model systems where the probability of transitioning to a future state depends solely on the current state, not the history, yet the specific path taken remains indeterministic due to probabilistic branching. Introduced by Andrey Markov in the early 20th century, these chains exemplify how deterministic rules can generate unpredictable sequences, as seen in random walks where the position after n steps follows a probability distribution but no single trajectory is predetermined. This framework underpins much of modern probability theory, illustrating indeterminism as a structural feature rather than ignorance, with applications extending briefly to modeling quantum transitions in physics. In set theory, indeterminism arises from the potential for multiple incompatible yet consistent axiomatic extensions, challenging the uniqueness of mathematical reality. Philosopher Mark Balaguer's "thin realism," proposed in his 1998 work, posits that while mathematical objects exist abstractly, set theory admits a plurality of "thin" universes—each satisfying the axioms of Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory but differing in their treatment of undecidable statements like the Continuum Hypothesis.^[40] This view fosters mathematical indeterminism by allowing multiple set-theoretic universes to coexist without one being privileged, as no empirical or logical criterion selects among them, thereby accommodating the incompleteness revealed by Gödel.^[40] Balaguer's pluralism thus integrates indeterminism into the ontology of mathematics, where the "true" structure of sets remains open-ended.^[40]

Physics: Classical, Relativistic, and Quantum

In classical physics, Newtonian mechanics established a deterministic framework where the future state of a system is uniquely determined by its initial conditions and the laws of motion. However, the development of statistical mechanics in the 1860s and 1870s introduced probabilistic elements, challenging this determinism. James Clerk Maxwell's 1860 work on the kinetic theory of gases derived a velocity distribution for molecules, which Ludwig Boltzmann extended in 1872 and 1877 through the Boltzmann equation, describing the evolution of probability distributions for particle states in gases. This approach treated macroscopic properties like pressure and temperature as statistical averages over countless microstates, acknowledging that exact trajectories were practically unknowable due to sensitivity to initial conditions, thus injecting epistemic indeterminism into classical descriptions.^[41]^[42] In relativistic physics, Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, published in 1915, formulates gravity as the curvature of spacetime determined by the Einstein field equations, which are deterministic partial differential equations predicting unique evolutions from given initial data under suitable conditions. Nonetheless, the theory permits singularities—points where spacetime curvature becomes infinite, such as at the centers of black holes predicted by solutions like the Schwarzschild metric in 1916—where predictability breaks down, as the equations fail to describe physics beyond these points. These singularities, confirmed observationally in phenomena like gravitational wave detections of merging black holes since 2015, raise indeterministic questions in cosmology, particularly regarding the Big Bang singularity and the causal structure of the universe, potentially requiring extensions like quantum gravity to resolve. A 2025 analysis by Azhar and Namjoo argues that these singularities signal a form of indeterminism through non-uniqueness of evolutions, ill-behaved quantities, and lawlessness beyond the singularities.^[43]^[44]^[45] Quantum mechanics fundamentally incorporates indeterminism, most notably through Werner Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, formulated in 1927, which states that the product of uncertainties in position and momentum satisfies

\Delta x \Delta p \geq \frac{\hbar}{2},

where \hbar is the reduced Planck's constant, implying an intrinsic limit to simultaneous knowledge of conjugate variables and thus to deterministic predictions.^[46] In the Copenhagen interpretation, developed primarily by Niels Bohr and Heisenberg in the late 1920s, the wave function \psi encodes probabilities via the Born rule, and its collapse upon measurement—transitioning from a superposition to a definite outcome—represents intrinsic indeterminism, not merely ignorance, as the specific result is fundamentally probabilistic rather than predetermined.^[47] By contrast, Hugh Everett's many-worlds interpretation, proposed in his 1957 dissertation, restores determinism by having the universal wave function evolve unitarily without collapse, but introduces branching indeterminacy: measurements entangle the observer with the system, spawning parallel worlds each realizing a different outcome, with no single trajectory privileged.^[48] John Stewart Bell's theorem, published in 1964, further supports quantum indeterminism by demonstrating that no local hidden-variable theory—positing underlying deterministic variables screened from distant influences—can reproduce all quantum predictions, as shown by violations of Bell inequalities in experiments since the 1980s confirming non-locality. This rules out deterministic completions of quantum mechanics that preserve locality, affirming intrinsic chance at the quantum level. More recent developments, such as Quantum Bayesianism (QBism) formalized in the 2010s by Christopher Fuchs and collaborators, reinterpret quantum probabilities as an agent's subjective degrees of belief about personal experiences, blending epistemic unpredictability with the formalism while maintaining the theory's predictive success. More recently, in 2025, Del Santo and Gisin contended that several features of quantum physics, including paradoxes, stem from indeterminism rather than inherent quantum properties.^[49]^[50]

Biology, Evolution, and Complex Systems

In evolutionary biology, indeterminism manifests through random genetic variations that serve as the substrate for natural selection. Charles Darwin's foundational theory, presented in On the Origin of Species (1859), posits that evolution proceeds via the preservation of favorable variations arising spontaneously among individuals, without specifying a deterministic mechanism for their origin. These variations, now understood as genetic mutations, introduce indeterministic elements, particularly through quantum effects during DNA replication and repair processes, such as probabilistic bond formations that can "percolate" to affect population-level outcomes. Complementing this, Motoo Kimura's neutral theory of molecular evolution (1968) emphasizes random genetic drift as a primary driver of change at the genetic level, where selectively neutral mutations fixate or are lost stochastically in populations, independent of adaptive pressures.^[51] This drift-based process underscores the indeterministic nature of molecular evolution, as the fixation probability of a neutral allele depends on chance events rather than deterministic causation, challenging purely selectionist views and highlighting how most genetic substitutions occur via unpredictable fluctuations.^[51] In biological systems, Ilya Prigogine's theory of dissipative structures (developed in the 1970s) illustrates how order emerges from indeterministic fluctuations in open systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium.^[52] These structures, such as biochemical cycles in cells, form through instabilities where microscopic fluctuations are amplified by nonlinear interactions, leading to self-organization and history-dependent outcomes that blend deterministic dynamics with probabilistic bifurcations.^[52] Prigogine argued that such processes introduce genuine indeterminism, as systems near critical points defy the law of large numbers, enabling the spontaneous creation of ordered patterns in living matter.^[52] Within complex systems, chaos theory, as formulated by Edward Lorenz in his 1963 analysis of nonlinear differential equations for atmospheric convection, exemplifies epistemic unpredictability rather than intrinsic indeterminism.^[53] Lorenz demonstrated that deterministic systems can produce nonperiodic solutions highly sensitive to initial conditions, rendering long-term predictions practically impossible despite underlying causality.^[53] However, Prigogine extended this to argue for true indeterminism in irreversible processes, where statistical fluctuations in far-from-equilibrium conditions drive macroscopic irreversibility, as seen in biological and ecological dynamics.^[52] Ludwig Boltzmann's statistical mechanics (1870s) provides the probabilistic framework for applying indeterminism to biological thermodynamics, interpreting entropy as a measure of microstate multiplicity in systems like metabolic pathways.^[54] By linking macroscopic irreversibility—such as the second law's directional arrow in cellular energy dissipation—to the statistical likelihood of molecular configurations, Boltzmann's approach reveals how indeterministic microscopic events underpin the ordered yet unpredictable behaviors of living systems.^[54] This foundation has informed models of evolutionary thermodynamics, where probabilistic drifts align with biological adaptation.^[55]

Neuroscience and Other Fields

In neuroscience, Benjamin Libet's experiments in the 1980s demonstrated a temporal gap between unconscious brain activity—measured as readiness potential—and conscious awareness of the intention to act, suggesting that conscious veto power could interrupt an initiated voluntary action within a brief window of approximately 100-200 milliseconds before execution. This veto mechanism implies an indeterministic element in decision-making, where conscious intervention can alter outcomes that have already begun unfolding unconsciously, challenging purely deterministic models of volition. Complementing this, the Orchestrated Objective Reduction (Orch-OR) theory, proposed by Roger Penrose and Stuart Hameroff in the 1990s, posits that quantum computations within neuronal microtubules enable non-computable, indeterministic processes underlying consciousness, where quantum superpositions collapse via gravitational objective reduction to produce moments of awareness.^[56] These microtubule-based quantum effects are theorized to integrate information across the brain in a way that evades classical deterministic computation, potentially accounting for the non-algorithmic aspects of human cognition.^[57] In cosmology, Alan Guth's 1981 inflationary model introduced a phase of rapid exponential expansion in the early universe, driven by a scalar field, where quantum fluctuations during this period seed the density perturbations that lead to the large-scale structure of galaxies and cosmic microwave background anisotropies in an indeterministic manner. These primordial quantum fluctuations, amplified by inflation, introduce inherent unpredictability into the universe's evolution, as the specific realization of structure depends on stochastic variations rather than deterministic initial conditions. Extending this, eternal inflation hypotheses, such as those developed by Andrei Linde in the 1980s, propose that inflation continues indefinitely in regions beyond our observable universe, generating a multiverse of branching pocket universes with varying physical constants and laws through perpetual quantum tunneling events. This framework implies an ever-expanding tree of realities, where indeterminism at the quantum inflationary scale proliferates into diverse cosmological outcomes. In other fields, economics employs stochastic modeling to capture market indeterminism, as seen in the Black-Scholes framework of the 1970s, which treats asset prices as following a geometric Brownian motion—a random walk process incorporating unpredictable shocks to value securities under uncertainty. This approach acknowledges that market dynamics arise from aggregated individual behaviors and external noise, rendering precise predictions impossible despite underlying rational agent assumptions. In computer science, Alan Turing's 1936 conceptualization of "choice machines"—an extension of the Turing machine allowing non-deterministic choices at decision points—formalizes computation where multiple paths can be explored simultaneously, highlighting indeterminism as a tool for efficiency in algorithms like parallel search.^[58] Interdisciplinary perspectives in AI and social sciences reveal how aggregate indeterminism can emerge from deterministic components, as in agent-based models where simple local rules among interacting agents yield unpredictable global patterns, such as spontaneous segregation in Thomas Schelling's 1971 spatial dynamics simulations. In AI, this manifests in emergent behaviors from deterministic neural architectures under stochastic training, producing non-deterministic outputs that mimic complex social unpredictability without inherent randomness at the base level.^[59] Such emergence underscores how macro-level indeterminism in systems like economies or AI-driven simulations arises from micro-determinism amplified by interactions and feedback loops.

Implications and Debates

Relation to Free Will and Moral Responsibility

Indeterminism plays a pivotal role in libertarian accounts of free will, which posit that genuine alternative possibilities for action require breaks in the deterministic causal chain to enable agents to choose otherwise in a way that is not merely illusory.^[60] In these views, free will demands indeterminism to preserve the agent's ability to originate actions independently of prior causes, ensuring that decisions are not fully predetermined by the past.^[60] By contrast, compatibilist theories maintain that free will is compatible with determinism, defining it as the capacity to act in accordance with one's desires and reasons without external coercion, where indeterminism is neither necessary nor particularly beneficial for agency.^[61] Regarding moral responsibility, indeterminism allows agents to serve as ultimate sources of their actions through processes like Robert Kane's self-forming actions (SFAs), which are indeterministic choices during moral conflicts that shape character and ground subsequent responsibility.^[60] These SFAs enable ultimate responsibility by incorporating quantum-level indeterminacy into deliberative efforts, permitting agents to endorse their wills as their own.^[60] However, critics argue that such indeterminism introduces randomness that undermines rational control, as random deviations from causal paths fail to align with the agent's intentions, rendering free actions unintelligible under libertarianism.^[62] In ethical contexts, indeterminism bolsters retributivist theories of punishment by justifying desert-based sanctions, as only agents with ultimate responsibility for indeterministic choices warrant blame or praise proportional to their wrongdoing.^[63] This framework supports legal systems where punishment reflects genuine moral culpability arising from alternative possibilities, rather than consequentialist deterrence alone.^[63] Hard determinists counter that even indeterminism fails to secure responsibility, as neither deterministic inevitability nor random chance allows true authorship of actions, potentially invalidating retributive justice. Contemporary neurophilosophical discussions, such as those in Daniel Dennett's compatibilist framework, suggest that limited indeterminism—such as amplified quantum effects in neural processes—provides sufficient variability for robust agency without necessitating libertarian breaks in causation.^[61] Dennett argues this "enough" randomness enhances responsiveness to reasons, preserving moral responsibility in a naturalistic setting where free will equates to avoidable self-control.^[61]

Criticisms and Alternative Views

One prominent criticism of indeterminism, particularly in the context of quantum mechanics, comes from Albert Einstein, who famously rejected the intrinsic randomness of quantum theory as akin to "magical thinking" by asserting that "God does not play dice with the universe." This phrase, from a 1926 letter to Max Born, expressed Einstein's belief that the apparent indeterminism reflected incomplete knowledge rather than a fundamental feature of reality. Philosophers have similarly argued that indeterminism introduces arbitrariness that undermines rationality and agency. Thomas Nagel, in his 1986 analysis, contends that indeterministic processes, while avoiding strict causal determination, fail to provide a coherent basis for rational choice, as they reduce decisions to chance events without genuine control. Alternatives to indeterminism include hidden variable theories, which posit underlying deterministic mechanisms to explain quantum phenomena. David Bohm's 1952 formulation of Bohmian mechanics introduces particle positions as hidden variables that guide trajectories deterministically, restoring predictability while reproducing quantum predictions. Another alternative involves supervenience relations, where higher-level properties, including any apparent indeterminism, are fully determined by lower-level deterministic states without independent randomness. Jaegwon Kim's work on supervenience demonstrates that if microphysical laws are deterministic, macro-level behaviors cannot introduce novel indeterminism, as higher properties supervene nomologically on the base level. Emergentism offers a view where macro-level indeterminism arises effectively from micro-level determinism, as seen in chaotic systems. In chaos theory, deterministic equations produce highly sensitive dependence on initial conditions, yielding unpredictable outcomes that mimic indeterminism without true randomness, as illustrated by Edward Lorenz's 1963 model of atmospheric convection. Recent critiques emphasize quantum decoherence, which accounts for apparent randomness through environmental interactions rather than intrinsic indeterminism. Wojciech Zurek's research from the 1980s onward shows that decoherence causes quantum superpositions to rapidly lose coherence, producing classical-like probabilities that are emergent and deterministic in the unitary evolution of the full system. Philosophical eliminativism further challenges indeterminism's necessity by denying the existence of free will altogether, rendering indeterministic mechanisms irrelevant for agency. Kevin Cahill's 2015 examination of free will eliminativism argues that folk concepts of libertarian free will, often invoking indeterminism, are illusory and eliminable, favoring a deterministic or compatibilist framework without requiring randomness.^[64]

References

[1]
Varieties of Free Will and Determinism - Philosophy Home Page
Indeterminism: The philosophical doctrine that denies determinism is true. ... The usual definition of this term in philosophy is not affirmative but negative.
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[PDF] Determinism and Indeterminism - PhilSci-Archive
Nevertheless, so-called pilot-wave theories pioneered by Louis de Broglie and David Bohm are explicitly deterministic while still agreeing with experiments.
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An introduction to real possibilities, indeterminism, and free will
Jun 9, 2018 · In a nutshell, the idea is that indeterminism can be defined as the existence of multiple real possibilities for the future: an indeterministic ...
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Determinism and indeterminism (Chapter 15)
The origins of the question. The notion of universal causation was ubiquitous in later antiquity; to loosen those ties threatened the irruption of chaos.
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INDETERMINISM Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of INDETERMINISM is a theory that the will is free and that deliberate choice and actions are not determined by or predictable from antecedent ...
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Indeterminism - The Information Philosopher
The core idea of indeterminism is closely related to the idea of causality. Indeterminism for some philosophers is an event without a cause (the ancient causa ...
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[PDF] THE DILEMMA OF DETERMINISM By William James
We have seen what determinism means: we have seen that indeterminism is rightly described as meaning chance; and we have seen that chance, the very name of ...
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William James - The Dilemma of Determinism
Indeterminism thus denies the world to be one unbending unit of fact. It says there is a certain ultimate pluralism in it; and, so saying, it corroborates our ...
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Absolute Versus Relative Indeterminism - SpringerLink
Contemporary physics may be said to adhere, somewhat hesitantly, to a principle that could be called “absolute indeterminism.” In practice, the hesitation ...
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(PDF) Epistemological and ontological indeterminism: Hayek and ...
Aug 6, 2025 · The aim of this article is to compare and contrast the ideas of Friedrich von Hayek and Joseph Alois Schumpeter, who both adopted an ...
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Causal Determinism - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Jan 23, 2003 · Causal determinism is, roughly speaking, the idea that every event is necessitated by antecedent events and conditions together with the laws of nature.
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Newton's Philosophy
Oct 13, 2006 · Isaac Newton (1642–1727) lived in a philosophically tumultuous time. He witnessed the end of the Aristotelian dominance of philosophy in Europe.
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[PDF] Randomness Is Unpredictability - UC Berkeley Statistics
Sep 26, 2005 · An illustration of the definition in action is afforded by the case of indeterminism, the strongest form of unpredictability. If the correct ...
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[PDF] Randomness in Quantum Mechanics: Philosophy, Physics ... - arXiv
In the philosophical part we concentrate on the distinc- tion between apparent (epistemic) and intrinsic (inher- ent or ontic) randomness, and on the question ...
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Ernest Nagel on Determinism as a Guiding Principle and Its ...
Feb 6, 2021 · According to Ernest Nagel, determinism is central to the scientific enterprise. Faced with the claim that determinism fails in quantum ...
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[PDF] Causes and Conditions - Joel Velasco
Causes and Conditions. Author(s): J. L. Mackie. Source: American Philosophical Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 4 (Oct., 1965), pp. 245-264. Published by: University of ...
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Regularity and Inferential Theories of Causation
Jul 27, 2021 · On Mackie's theory, a factor \(C\) is a cause of \(E\) iff \(C\) is at least an INUS condition of \(E\), and each factor of the cluster that ...INUS Conditions · Inferential Theories of Causation · Causal Model Approaches
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[PDF] PROBABILISTIC-CAUSATION-Hitchcock-2012.pdf
In this section, we will provide some motivation for trying to understand causation in terms of probabilities, and address a couple of preliminary issues. 1.1 ...<|control11|><|separator|>
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(PDF) Epicurus' refutation of determinism - Academia.edu
Epicurus refutes determinism by introducing the concept of the 'swerve' in atomic motion. The swerve posits minimal indeterminism, crucial for free will and ...
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[PDF] What Motivated Epicurus to Say that Atoms Swerve?
This passage clearly shows that the Epicureans felt that Epicurus was modifying and thus preserving atomism, saving it from the errors of Democritus. Given ...
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Aristotle on the Indetermination of Accidental Causes and Chance in ...
Aug 9, 2025 · This article offers an interpretation of Aristotle's tenet that chance and accidental causes are indeterminate. According to one existing ...
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[PDF] ARISTOTLE ON THE INDETERMINATION OF ACCIDENTAL ...
Abstract: This article offers an interpretation of Aristotle's tenet that chance and accidental causes are indeterminate. According to one existing reading, ...
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No More This than That in advance: Pyrrhonian Indeterminacy
Aug 10, 2025 · Pyrrho's indeterminacy claim says that things are indeterminate insofar as they do not have features by reference to which we can determine them ...
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[PDF] Does Pyrrhonism Have Practical or Epistemic Value? - CORE
My purpose in this paper is to examine whether Pyrrhonian scepticism, as this stance is described in Sextus Empiricus's extant works, has practical or ...Missing: indeterminism | Show results with:indeterminism
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Epicurus' Swerve and the Randomness Objection to Free Will
Although the swerve renders hard determinism false, its immediate implication is randomness, which cannot be equated with free will. The ancients had not ...Missing: Leucippus | Show results with:Leucippus
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[PDF] Lucretius' arguments on the swerve and free action - PhilArchive
In his version of atomism, Lucretius made explicit reference to the concept of an intrinsic declination of the atom, the atomic swerve (clinamen in Latin), ...
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Occasionalism - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Oct 20, 2008 · Given how many prominent Cartesians were indeed occasionalists, it is not surprising that Descartes has been suggested as the source of this new ...Occasionalism in Context · Cartesian Interactionism, Pre... · The Arguments for...Missing: indeterminism | Show results with:indeterminism
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Occasionalism | Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Occasionalism is typically regarded as a laughable ad hoc or 'for want of anything better' solution to the mind-body problem, first opened up in Descartes' ...Missing: indeterminism | Show results with:indeterminism
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Leibniz's Philosophy of Mind
Sep 22, 1997 · Leibniz's place in the history of the philosophy of mind is best secured by his pre-established harmony. In a more popular view, this is the ...
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Gottfried Leibniz: Metaphysics - Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Leibniz argues that things seem to cause one another because God ordained a pre-established harmony among everything in the universe.
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David Hume - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Feb 26, 2001 · Hume locates the source of the idea of necessary connection in us, not in the objects themselves or even in our ideas of those objects we ...Missing: indeterministic | Show results with:indeterministic
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UC Davis Philosophy 175 Lecture Notes on Kant
Kant held that if reason does have this causal power, it can be said to act freely, despite the empirical determinism. The action would be the outcome of two ...
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Charles Sanders Peirce - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Jun 22, 2001 · Peirce called his doctrine that chance has an objective status in the universe “tychism,” a word taken from the Greek word for “chance” or “ ...Peirce's Deductive Logic · Peirce's View of the... · Benjamin Peirce
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Karl Popper - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Nov 13, 1997 · Popper, then, is an historical indeterminist, insofar as he holds that history does not evolve in accordance with intrinsic laws or principles, ...6. Probability, Knowledge... · 11. Critical Evaluation · Secondary Literature/other...
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Arthur Holly Compton - Scientists - The Information Philosopher
Compton was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1927 for this "Compton effect," the year that Werner Heisenberg discovered quantum indeterminacy. Compton ...
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https://global.oup.com/academic/product/platonism-and-anti-platonism-in-mathematics-9780195143980
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Platonism and Anti-Platonism in Mathematics - Oxford University Press
Free delivery 25-day returnsIn this book, Balaguer demonstrates that there are no good arguments for or against mathematical platonism. He does this by establishing that both platonism and ...
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Peter van Inwagen, An Essay on Free Will - PhilPapers
In this stimulating and thought-provoking book, the author defends the thesis that free will is incompatible with determinism.
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Gödel's Incompleteness Theorems
Nov 11, 2013 · The article was published in January 1931 (Gödel 1931; helpful introductions to Gödel's original paper are Kleene 1986 and Zach 2005). The ...
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A Theory of Program Size Formally Identical to Information Theory
A Theory of Program Size Formally Identical to Information Theory. Author: Gregory J. Chaitin.
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THIN- AND FULL-BLOODED PLATONISM - Project Euclid
Mathematical theories seem to be objectively true in the sense that they are true independently of us and of our mathematical theorizing.
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Statistical Mechanics - The Information Philosopher
In 1860, James Clerk Maxwell, the first physicist to use statistics and probability, discovered the distribution of velocities of atoms or molecules in a gas.
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Philosophy of Statistical Mechanics
Jan 10, 2023 · The Boltzmann Equation This distribution can change over time, and Boltzmann's aim was to show that as time passes this distribution function ...
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General Theory of Relativity - Institute for Advanced Study
Albert Einstein finished his general theory of relativity in November 1915 ... More precisely, a black hole is a singularity in spacetime... Read More.
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Singularities and Black Holes - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Jun 29, 2009 · Such black holes generically contain a spacetime singularity at their center; thus we cannot fully understand a black hole without also ...Missing: 1915 | Show results with:1915
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February 1927: Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle
In February 1927, the young Werner Heisenberg developed a key piece of quantum theory, the uncertainty principle, with profound implications.
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Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
May 3, 2002 · The Copenhagen interpretation was the first general attempt to understand the world of atoms as this is represented by quantum mechanics.The Interpretation of the... · Misunderstandings of... · The Divergent Views
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Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
Mar 24, 2002 · The Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.Missing: indeterminacy | Show results with:indeterminacy
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Quantum-Bayesian and Pragmatist Views of Quantum Theory
Dec 8, 2016 · By contrast, QBists hold a subjective Bayesian or personalist view of quantum probabilities (see entry on interpretations of probability).
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Evolutionary Rate at the Molecular Level - Nature
### Summary of Motoo Kimura's Neutral Theory
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[PDF] prigogine-lecture.pdf - Nobel Prize
All these features influence in a decisive way the type of instabilities which lead to dissipative structures. Far from equilibrium, there appears therefore an ...
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Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow
### Summary of Edward Lorenz's 1963 Paper on Chaos Theory
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[cond-mat/0105242] Boltzmann's Approach to Statistical Mechanics
May 11, 2001 · Ludwig Boltzmann explained how irreversible macroscopic laws, in particular the second law of thermodynamics, originate in the time-reversible laws of ...
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The application of statistical physics to evolutionary biology - PNAS
Here we show that a precise mathematical analogy can be drawn between certain evolutionary and thermodynamic systems, allowing application of the powerful ...
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Orchestrated reduction of quantum coherence in brain microtubules
We believe Orch OR in brain microtubules is the most specific and plausible model for consciousness yet proposed.Missing: original | Show results with:original
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Quantum computation in brain microtubules? The Penrose ...
In the Orch OR proposal, reduction of microtubule quantum superposition to classical output states occurs by an objective factor: Roger Penrose's quantum ...Missing: 1990s | Show results with:1990s
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[PDF] ON COMPUTABLE NUMBERS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE ...
By A. M. TURING. [Received 28 May, 1936.—Read 12 November, 1936.] The "computable" numbers may be described briefly ...
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(PDF) Emergence in Agent-Based Computational Social Science
This chapter provides a critical survey of emergence definitions both from a conceptual and formal standpoint. The notions of downward / backward causation ...Missing: indeterminism | Show results with:indeterminism
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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29614964_Emergence_in_Agent-Based_Computational_Social_Science_Conceptual_Formal_and_Diagrammatic_Analysis
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https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-significance-of-free-will-9780198247675
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https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262542485/elbow-room/
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Retributivism, Ultimate Responsibility, and Agent Causalism
This article argues that, if ultimate responsibility is required for moral responsibility, then, unless both indeterminism and agent causalism are true, any ...
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[PDF] Free Will Eliminativism: Reference, Error, and Phenomenology
Jan 30, 2015 · He maintains that like other eliminativist arguments in philosophy, arguments that free will is an illusion seem to depend on substantive.