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Katabatic wind

A katabatic wind, also known as a fall wind, is a downslope wind driven by gravity, where cold, dense air flows from higher elevations toward lower-lying areas due to differences in air density.^[1]^[2] These winds typically form when air near the surface cools through radiational cooling, particularly at night or over ice-covered terrain, causing it to become denser than the surrounding warmer air and descend along slopes.^[2]^[3] Katabatic winds are characterized by their cold, dry nature and can vary in intensity depending on terrain and atmospheric conditions.^[4] They are classified into subtypes such as gentle drainage winds in valleys and stronger fall winds, like the bora, which are driven by significant pressure gradients and can produce gusts exceeding 100 km/h.^[3] In polar regions, such as Antarctica, these winds accelerate as converging air flows are funneled through glacial valleys, often reaching sustained speeds of 15–20 m/s (about 33–45 mph), contributing to extreme local weather and low precipitation in areas like the McMurdo Dry Valleys.^[5]^[2] These winds play a significant role in regional climates, influencing snow distribution, humidity levels, and even research operations in remote areas by creating blizzards and damaging equipment.^[2]^[5] In mountainous or glaciated environments, katabatic flows also interact with broader atmospheric circulation, enhancing downslope momentum and affecting ecosystems through erosion and reduced accumulation of snow or ice.^[6]^[3]

Definition and Characteristics

Core Definition

A katabatic wind is a downslope wind driven by gravity, arising from the flow of cold, dense air along an inclined surface toward lower elevations where air density is comparatively lower.^[7] This gravitational drainage distinguishes it as a type of gravity wind, often characterized by its cold nature and potential for high speeds over sloped terrain.^[7] The term "katabatic" originates from the Greek word katabatikos, meaning "going down" or "descending," reflecting the downhill motion inherent to these winds.^[2] Scientific investigations into katabatic winds began in the mid-19th century, with early observations documented around the 1840s, marking their recognition in meteorological literature as density-driven flows.^[8] In opposition to katabatic winds, anabatic winds involve upslope movements of warmer, less dense air, typically induced by diurnal heating of slopes, creating a complementary pair in thermally influenced circulations.^[9] Katabatic winds generally manifest on local scales, such as within valleys or along individual slopes, but in expansive polar ice sheets, they can evolve into regional or even continental extents due to prolonged drainage over vast terrains.^[5]

Key Physical Properties

Katabatic winds are characterized by their significantly lower temperatures compared to the surrounding ambient air, primarily due to radiative cooling over elevated surfaces. In typical cases, the air mass in katabatic flows is 5–20°C colder than nearby air at similar elevations, driven by the strength of the surface-based temperature inversion.^[10] In polar regions like the Antarctic interior, these temperature deficits can be more extreme, with inversions exceeding 25°C during winter months, and occasional drops up to 30°C below ambient conditions in strong events. Wind speeds in katabatic flows vary widely depending on scale and topography, accelerating downslope under gravity. Small-scale or local flows often exhibit gentle speeds of 2.5–10 m/s, while larger-scale events in glacial regions can reach sustained speeds of 15–20 m/s.^[11]^[5] In intense cases, such as those along steep Antarctic slopes, gusts can exceed 50 m/s, with historical records approaching 75 m/s.^[12] The cooling process increases air density, making katabatic winds negatively buoyant relative to overlying warmer air, which fosters stable stratification. This stability often results in initially laminar flow profiles, with high directional consistency (e.g., constancies ≥0.89 in Antarctic cases), though turbulence develops on steeper or rougher slopes due to shear and mixing.^[13]^[14] These winds are typically short-lived in temperate regions, lasting hours and peaking nocturnally under clear radiative skies, but can persist for days in polar environments. Seasonality plays a key role, with stronger and more frequent occurrences during winter when surface cooling is maximized, though they occur year-round in ice-covered areas.^[11]^[13]

Formation and Mechanism

Processes of Air Cooling

The primary mechanism driving the initiation of katabatic winds is radiative cooling, where elevated terrain, such as plateaus or mountain slopes, loses heat to the atmosphere through longwave radiation, particularly under clear nighttime skies. This process cools the surface layer of air in direct contact with the ground, creating a pocket of denser, colder air compared to the warmer air aloft.^[14] Observations in Antarctic regions demonstrate that this radiative heat loss can lower surface temperatures by several degrees Celsius within hours, establishing the thermal contrast essential for katabatic development.^[15] In addition to radiative cooling, other thermodynamic processes contribute to air cooling in specific environments. In glacial and polar settings, sublimation of snow and ice surfaces provides evaporative cooling, as the phase change from solid to vapor absorbs latent heat from the overlying air, further reducing temperatures and increasing humidity deficits that sustain the process.^[16] Advective cooling also plays a role, particularly when cold air masses from upstream regions are transported over the slope, enhancing the overall chilling effect without relying solely on local radiation.^[17] These mechanisms often interact, with sublimation rates amplified in dry, windy conditions typical of ice sheets. The cumulative cooling alters the vertical temperature profile, forming strong surface-based inversion layers where near-surface air temperatures drop more rapidly than those higher up, thereby steepening the density gradient and promoting stability in the lower atmosphere.^[15] This inversion traps the cold air near the surface, preventing vertical mixing and concentrating the dense layer that will eventually drive downslope motion. For these cooling processes to effectively initiate katabatic winds, specific threshold conditions must be met, including clear skies to minimize incoming longwave radiation and maximize net radiative loss, calm upper-level winds to avoid disrupting the surface cooling, and sufficiently sloped terrain, even as gentle as 1-2 degrees under strong cooling conditions, to provide gravitational potential for flow.^[18] Historical observations from early Antarctic expeditions, such as those conducted in Adélie Land during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, documented the nocturnal onset of these winds under such conditions, with sudden temperature drops and wind shifts noted after sunset.^[19] The resulting density increase in the cooled air layer provides the buoyancy force necessary for the subsequent downslope dynamics.

Dynamics of Downslope Flow

The dynamics of downslope flow in katabatic winds arise from the balance of gravitational forces acting on the denser, cooled air mass with opposing frictional and entrainment forces, leading to acceleration along the slope. The primary driving mechanism is the along-slope component of gravity, which results from the hydrostatic pressure gradient induced by the density contrast between the cold air layer and the warmer ambient air above. This can be approximated through the momentum equation for along-slope acceleration: a \approx g \frac{\Delta \theta_v}{\theta_v} \sin \theta, where g is gravitational acceleration, \Delta \theta_v is the virtual potential temperature deficit, \theta_v is the reference virtual potential temperature, and \theta is the slope angle.^[20] This formulation highlights how the temperature deficit generates the buoyancy force that propels the flow downslope.^[21] Katabatic flows typically evolve through distinct regimes, beginning with an acceleration phase where gravitational forcing dominates, transitioning to equilibrium as friction and turbulence balance the drive. The flow regime shifts from laminar to turbulent based on the Reynolds number, with values exceeding $10^4 commonly indicating turbulent conditions due to the high shear and stratification in these flows; an integral Reynolds number Re_I = |B_s| / (\nu N^2 \sin \alpha) > 3000 further supports the onset of turbulence, where B_s is the buoyancy flux, \nu is kinematic viscosity, N is the Brunt-Väisälä frequency, and \alpha is the slope angle.^[22] During acceleration, the flow speed increases until frictional drag near the surface and turbulent mixing limit further gains, often reaching a steady state where buoyancy is counteracted by these dissipative processes.^[23] Within the shallow boundary layer, typically 10-100 m deep, surface friction significantly slows the near-ground flow, creating a low-level jet with maximum speeds aloft, while entrainment of warmer ambient air at the interface dilutes the density contrast and retards overall acceleration.^[23] This entrainment is the dominant mechanism limiting flow depth and speed, as it mixes momentum and heat across the layer, reducing the gravitational drive over distance. Theoretical understanding began with Prandtl's 1942 slope wind model, which assumed steady, one-dimensional laminar flow balanced by viscosity and buoyancy, predicting a characteristic velocity profile with a near-surface maximum.^[24] Modern refinements incorporate turbulence and have been validated through numerical simulations, which demonstrate accelerations yielding speeds up to 20 m s^{-1} on slopes around 10°, particularly over steep coastal terrains where the balance shifts toward inertial dominance.^[7]

Types and Variations

Local Drainage Winds

Local drainage winds represent a subset of katabatic winds characterized by small-scale, terrain-confined downslope flows, typically on spatial scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers within valleys or basins, and driven primarily by local topography rather than extensive regional gradients.^[3] These winds arise from radiative cooling of air masses adjacent to sloping surfaces, leading to denser, gravity-driven drainage that remains localized due to topographic barriers such as valley walls.^[25] An illustrative example is nocturnal drainage flows in alpine valleys, such as those in the European Alps, where cold air pools and flows downslope in response to nighttime cooling.^[3] The formation of these winds is enhanced by channeling effects in narrow valleys, where the convergence of cooled air accelerates the downslope motion, often resulting in wind speeds ranging from 5 to 15 m/s.^[26] This acceleration occurs as the dense air layer, cooled primarily through contact with the ground, is funneled and compressed by the valley geometry, promoting a shallow, stable flow regime.^[27] Such winds are most prevalent in nocturnal settings, when clear skies and minimal synoptic forcing allow radiative cooling to dominate, creating persistent drainage layers that pool in lower terrain overnight.^[3] Unlike large-scale flows, these variants exhibit reduced momentum over distance, with flows dissipating rapidly beyond the valley outlet owing to frictional drag and mixing with ambient air.^[25] Observational records of local drainage winds trace back to 18th-century European meteorology, where they were documented as "fall winds" to describe sudden downslope bursts in alpine and Mediterranean settings.^[25] Early studies from the 1840s onward emphasized their role in local weather patterns, with systematic field campaigns in the 20th century building on these accounts. Modern techniques, such as lidar measurements, have confirmed the shallow depths of these flows, often limited to 25-100 meters with pronounced temperature deficits of several degrees Celsius, validating the confined nature observed historically.^[25]

Large-Scale Katabatic Flows

Large-scale katabatic flows encompass downslope wind systems operating on continental or subcontinental scales, typically spanning distances exceeding 100 km and exhibiting persistent characteristics due to the vast extent of source regions like ice sheets. These flows arise from the radiative cooling of air over elevated terrains, leading to dense air masses that drain outward in a radially divergent pattern, often merging contributions from multiple interior sources to form coherent regional systems. Prominent examples include the katabatic drainage from the Antarctic ice sheet, where cold air from the East and West Antarctic plateaus accelerates downslope, contributing to coastal wind systems such as barrier winds that influence broad sectors of the continent.^[28]^[29]^[30] In mid-latitudes, fall winds such as the bora along the Adriatic Sea and the mistral in southern France represent large-scale katabatic systems, where cold air from elevated interiors is funneled toward coasts under synoptic influences.^[3] The dynamics of these expansive flows are amplified by interactions with planetary-scale forces, particularly the Coriolis effect, which deflects the downslope momentum to the left in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in curved trajectories and potential geostrophic adjustments over long fetches. Sustained primarily by intense radiative cooling along ice sheet surfaces, these winds maintain high velocities, commonly reaching 20–40 m/s in coastal transition zones, thereby contributing significantly to regional atmospheric circulation beyond localized drainage.^[31]^[32]^[33] Notable variations occur in polar settings, such as the katabatic outflows linked to Greenland's outlet glaciers, where strong downslope winds channel through fjords like Sermilik, driving enhanced ocean-glacier interactions and sea ice export. While some systems display hybrid traits combining katabatic drainage with foehn-like downslope acceleration, pure large-scale katabatic flows remain characterized by cooling without significant adiabatic warming, preserving the dense, cold nature of the air mass.^[34]^[35] Modeling advancements since the early 2000s have leveraged satellite thermal infrared imagery and reanalysis products, such as ERA5, to delineate the global distribution and intensity of these flows, revealing their prevalence over Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets with offshore extensions up to 100 km. Studies from the 2020s indicate that climate change may initially intensify katabatic wind regimes through amplified ice sheet cooling gradients, though this self-cooling mechanism is projected to peak in the 2020s–2040s before declining amid glacier retreat.^[36]^[37]^[38]

Occurrences and Examples

Polar and Glacial Regions

In polar regions, particularly Antarctica, katabatic winds represent some of the most intense atmospheric phenomena on Earth, originating from the elevated interior ice plateau where radiative cooling creates dense, cold air masses that accelerate downslope toward the coast under gravity. These large-scale flows, often reaching sustained speeds of 20-30 m/s and gusts exceeding 90 m/s during extreme events in areas like Adélie Land, are driven by the steep surface slopes of the East Antarctic ice sheet and contribute significantly to regional mass transport by redistributing snow across vast distances, thereby influencing the ice sheet's surface mass balance through erosion, deposition, and sublimation processes.^[11]^[39]^[40] In Greenland, katabatic winds descend from the central ice cap's margins, channeling through deep fjords and profoundly shaping coastal microclimates by enhancing ventilation and moisture transport. Observations from field expeditions in the 2010s, including those near Sermilik Fjord, have documented gusts up to 70 m/s during intense drainage events, underscoring their role in amplifying local temperature contrasts and precipitation patterns along the ice sheet's periphery.^[41]^[42] Katabatic winds also occur in other Arctic regions, such as Svalbard, where they drain cold air from ice caps into fjords, influencing local sea ice dynamics and coastal weather.^[43] On alpine glaciers in glacial environments, such as those in the Himalayas, sublimation at the ice surface further cools near-ground air, increasing its density and thereby strengthening the gravitational forcing that sustains katabatic flows even on smaller scales. This process amplifies downslope acceleration, promoting enhanced ablation and sediment transport on steep valley glaciers.^[44] Recent research from the 2020s highlights katabatic winds' broader meteorological implications in polar settings, including their facilitation of rapid sea ice production in coastal polynyas through extreme sensible heat loss during wind events. Satellite observations, such as those from MODIS aboard NASA's Aqua satellite, have effectively tracked elongated blowing snow plumes extending hundreds of kilometers from katabatic sources in East Antarctica, providing insights into their spatial extent and variability.^[45]^[46]

Temperate Mountainous Areas

In temperate mountainous areas, katabatic winds manifest primarily as nocturnal drainage flows influenced by seasonal cooling and complex topography, often occurring in mid-latitude regions during winter when radiative cooling creates stable atmospheric layers. These winds differ from polar variants by interacting with vegetated slopes and milder climates, leading to more variable intensities shaped by local valleys and inversions.^[47] In Europe, prominent examples include nocturnal drainage winds in the Alps and Pyrenees, where cold air accumulates over elevated terrain and flows downslope at night, typically reaching speeds of 5-10 m/s under stable conditions. The bora, a severe katabatic wind along the Adriatic coast in the lee of the Dinaric Alps, exemplifies intensified flows tied to winter inversions, with hourly mean speeds exceeding 20 m/s and gusts up to 50 m/s during outbreaks of cold air from continental highs.^[48]^[49] North American instances occur in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, where chinook events often incorporate katabatic precursors as cold air drains from high plateaus, but pure katabatic flows dominate in confined valleys like Yosemite, manifesting as mono winds with speeds typically over 22 m/s and occasionally exceeding 45 m/s, funneled by rugged terrain during winter cold fronts.^[50]^[51] In Asia, katabatic winds on the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau are amplified by monsoon contrasts, with dry, cold downslope flows from glacial slopes countering humid summer inflows, a pattern first documented in 19th-century British surveys of the region that noted fierce gravity-driven winds impacting exploration routes. Recent analyses confirm these flows contribute to local cooling and drying, particularly during post-monsoon transitions.^[52]^[53] Recent observational advances have highlighted how changes in surface conditions in temperate mountain foothills—such as expanding settlements near the Alps and Rockies—may alter katabatic wind paths by introducing surface roughness, potentially increasing flow frequency and turbulence in populated valleys. These studies emphasize the need for integrated monitoring to assess topographic modifications' effects on downslope dynamics.^[54]

Impacts and Effects

Environmental and Climatic Influences

Katabatic winds significantly accelerate the erosion and transport of snow and soil on sloping terrains, particularly in polar regions, by driving high-speed downslope flows that enhance sublimation and drift processes. In Antarctica, katabatic winds contribute to the removal of a substantial portion of snowfall through wind scouring and sublimation, with blowing snow sublimation accounting for about 82 Gt/year (14-17% of continental snowfall). This transport mechanism not only redistributes surface materials but also contributes substantially to overall glacial mass loss, with sublimation alone accounting for around 35% of snowfall reduction in the margins of East Antarctica.^[39] These winds play a key role in modifying local and regional weather patterns by facilitating the advection of cold, dense air masses. In mountainous and glacial areas, katabatic flows enhance cold air outbreaks, such as those originating from Greenland's coastal valleys, where they generate intense "katabatic storms" that propagate offshore and amplify temperature contrasts over adjacent seas.^[55] Additionally, the pooling of cold air in valleys promotes fog formation through radiative cooling and moisture trapping, often resulting in persistent low-visibility conditions during nocturnal drainage events.^[56] On a broader scale, katabatic winds influence precipitation redistribution by transporting unsaturated air that induces sublimation of falling snow, thereby reducing net accumulation and altering moisture availability across downwind regions.^[39] In terms of long-term climatic influences, katabatic winds interact with larger atmospheric circulations, including the polar vortex, by modulating surface pressure gradients and momentum fluxes that extend into the upper troposphere. Model simulations indicate that variations in katabatic flow strength can affect polar vortex intensity, with stronger drainage winds potentially reinforcing vortex stability through enhanced cooling and convergence over the continent.^[57] Recent climate projections from the 2020s suggest that global warming may lead to intensification of these winds in certain Antarctic sectors due to amplified temperature contrasts between the elevated ice sheet and warming coastal areas, exacerbating ablation and altering regional energy balances.^[58] Katabatic winds also exert profound effects on biodiversity by shaping vegetation distribution along slopes, where persistent high-speed flows desiccate soils, erode substrates, and mechanically stress plants, thereby limiting the upward extent of tree lines in temperate and subalpine environments. In mountainous regions, these winds create microclimatic barriers that favor low-growing, wind-resistant species while restricting forest establishment, as evidenced by reduced canopy cover and altered species composition in exposed areas.^[59] Historical pollen records from high-elevation sediments further reveal millennial-scale impacts, with downslope transport by katabatic flows preserving signatures of past vegetation shifts, such as lowered tree lines during cooler periods when intensified winds curtailed arboreal expansion.^[60]

Human and Infrastructural Risks

Katabatic winds present substantial risks to aviation operations, primarily through sudden gusts and severe low-level turbulence that can destabilize aircraft during takeoff, landing, or low-altitude flight. In polar and mountainous regions, these winds accelerate downslope, reaching speeds exceeding 100 km/h, which complicates flight planning and increases the likelihood of wind shear encounters. For instance, at Antarctic research stations like McMurdo, extreme katabatic events with gusts up to 150 km/h have historically disrupted air traffic, leading to diversions and grounding of aircraft to prevent accidents.^[61] Pilots are advised to monitor terrain-induced wind patterns, as these flows can extend offshore, exacerbating turbulence over coastal areas. Maritime activities along coastal regions are equally vulnerable to katabatic winds, which generate powerful, unpredictable gusts that threaten small vessels and shipping routes. In the Mediterranean, winds such as the bora in the Adriatic Sea and the mistral in the Gulf of Lions can surge to 60 knots or more, creating steep waves and hazardous conditions for sailing and ferries. These events often catch mariners off guard due to their rapid onset, endangering navigation and leading to vessel damage or capsizing risks. For instance, in September 2025, advisories warned of gale-force winds over the central and southern Aegean and Cretan seas, prompting sailing bans from ports like Piraeus to mitigate dangers from enhanced wave heights and reduced visibility.^[62]^[63] Infrastructure in valley and slope-prone areas faces direct threats from katabatic winds, which channel high-speed flows that strain power lines, bridges, and buildings, often resulting in failures during prolonged events. In Antarctic valleys, such as those near Ross Island, these winds have repeatedly caused structural damage at research facilities, including disruptions to power systems from line sway and debris impacts. Post-2000 incidents, including those at polar stations, have informed engineering standards like those in the Unified Facilities Criteria for Arctic construction, which mandate wind-resistant designs accounting for gusts in valley outlets exceeding design thresholds. These guidelines emphasize reinforced anchoring and aerodynamic shaping to withstand downslope accelerations.^[61]^[64] Effective forecasting and safety measures have mitigated many risks associated with katabatic winds, enabling proactive responses to protect human life and assets. Numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provide reliable predictions of these events 24-48 hours in advance by simulating downslope cooling and flow dynamics, allowing for timely evacuations and operational halts. In regions prone to bora winds, such as the northern Adriatic, historical unforecast events in the early 20th century contributed to maritime fatalities, underscoring the value of modern tools in averting similar outcomes. Enhanced monitoring, including high-resolution reanalyses, supports aviation and maritime advisories, reducing exposure through route adjustments and shelter protocols.^[65]

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Dec 16, 2008 · A gusty downslope windstorm that blows at the eastern Adriatic coast is called bora. Similar winds exist at many other places on virtually ...
[51]
[PDF] The Dangers of Mono Winds… - Lessons Of Our Land
While the broad area affected by Mono Winds is along the western slopes of the central Sierra Nevada, they are most common within Yosemite National Park.Missing: Rockies pure
[52]
Chinook Winds, Explained | OpenSnow
Jun 30, 2024 · In the Rocky Mountains, downslope winds are referred to as Chinook winds. Also known as the “snow eaters”, Chinook winds impact the region's ...
[53]
Himalayan Survey - jstor
followed by fierce katabatic winds sweeping. A further four days wait at Jumla was ne recruited. This provided an opportunity fo manageable packs and laying ...
[54]
Local cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers ... - Nature
Dec 4, 2023 · The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and ...
[55]
Drone-based meteorological observations up to the tropopause - AMT
Aug 11, 2023 · In this article, the development of a drone system that is capable of sounding the atmosphere up to an altitude of 10 km with its own propulsion is presented.
[56]
[PDF] The Effect of Topoclimate on the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Air ...
Apr 2, 2025 · The anabatic and katabatic winds play a crucial role in heat and moisture distribution in mountainous regions, thereby influencing local.
[57]
Katabatic winds diminish precipitation contribution to the Antarctic ...
Sep 25, 2017 · Surface temperature inversion and the absence of orographic barriers allow katabatic winds to develop into some of the strongest, most ...Missing: characteristics | Show results with:characteristics
[58]
Air‐Sea Interactions and Water Mass Transformation During a ...
Apr 20, 2022 · Katabatic storms are outbursts of cold air associated with strong winds from coastal valleys of Greenland, in particular from the Ammassalik ...Missing: modification fog redistribution
[59]
The interaction of the downslope winds and fog formation over the ...
This study investigates fog development over the greater Zagreb area; a long-lasting fog event that took place from 6 to 8 November 2013.<|separator|>
[60]
Representation of Antarctic Katabatic Winds in a High-Resolution ...
Summertime katabatic winds show a decrease of up to 15% in the lower parts of the ice sheet, as a result of the destruction of the surface inversion by ...
[61]
Katabatic and foehn winds control the distribution of supraglacial ...
Sep 15, 2025 · We find that persistent katabatic winds and episodic foehn winds are key controls on the observed regional patterns of lakes.
[62]
[PDF] Air motion within and above forest vegetation in non-ideal conditions
Thermally- induced flow does not pose a threat to trees except the case with large slopes (> 50 km) which can generate katabatic wind (also termed chinook or fo ...
[63]
A pilot study on pollen representation of mountain valley vegetation ...
Aug 6, 2025 · 364 BCE and 131 CE in very low percentages may reflect their down slope transport through katabatic winds which carry very little pollen from ...
[64]
The Extreme Wind Events in the Ross Island Region of Antarctica
Jun 12, 2016 · Numerous incidents of structural damage at the U.S. Antarctic Program's (USAP) McMurdo Station due to extreme wind events (EWEs) have been ...Missing: plane | Show results with:plane
[65]
WINDS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN - OCEAN POSSE
especially for boats exiting or entering harbors. Short steep waves build up quickly in open water — ...Missing: advisories | Show results with:advisories
[66]
[PDF] UFC 3-130-01 General Provisions - Arctic and Subarctic Construction
Jan 16, 2004 · The possibility of strong katabatic winds that may be concentrated in valley outlets should be considered in site selection. ... Wind and snow ...
[67]
Mesoscale Modeling of Katabatic Winds over Greenland with the ...
The model was initialized with the 0000 UTC ECMWF analyses for each day of the two-month period, with the 24–48-h forecast used for model verification, unless ...