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Phillips Machine

The Phillips Machine, also known as the MONIAC (Monetary National Income Analogue Computer), is a hydraulic analog computer invented in 1949 by New Zealand economist and engineer A. W. H. "Bill" Phillips to model the flow of money through the United Kingdom's economy.^[1]^[2] Built while Phillips was a postgraduate student at the London School of Economics, the device uses colored water circulating through transparent tubes and tanks on a steel frame to represent economic variables such as national income, consumption, investment, government spending, taxes, savings, imports, and exports, allowing users to simulate Keynesian macroeconomic dynamics by adjusting valves, floats, and other controls.^[3]^[1] Unveiled at the London School of Economics in 1949, the machine was an immediate sensation for its innovative visualization of complex economic interdependencies, demonstrating how policy changes—like alterations in tax rates or money supply—could propagate through the system via water flows that mimicked financial circulation.^[2] Constructed primarily from Perspex, aluminum, and household plumbing components, it was powered by a small pump that elevated water to a reservoir symbolizing the money supply, from which it descended through sectors of the economy, with overflows and reservoirs capturing imbalances like budget surpluses or trade deficits.^[1]^[3] Phillips, who had previously worked as an electrician and taught himself economics while imprisoned during World War II, drew on his engineering background to create this tangible analogue.^[2] The machine's significance lies in its pioneering role as one of the earliest analog computers applied to economics, bridging engineering and social science to make abstract Keynesian models physically interactive and accessible for teaching and policy analysis.^[1] It influenced subsequent developments in economic simulation, including Phillips' own 1958 formulation of the Phillips Curve, which described the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, and inspired hydraulic models at institutions like Harvard and the London School of Economics.^[2] A total of 14 units were built, with applications extending to simulations for the Ford Motor Company and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand; as of 2024, working examples operate at the University of Cambridge and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, while the original is preserved at the Science Museum in London.^[3]^[2]

History

Invention and Development

Alban William Housego "Bill" Phillips, born in 1914 in Te Rehunga, New Zealand, developed an early interest in engineering through his family's resourceful innovations, such as a homemade waterwheel-powered electrical system on their dairy farm. After apprenticing as an electrician at a hydro-electric station and studying electrical engineering by correspondence, Phillips pursued an adventurous path that included working as a crocodile hunter and electrician in Australia before traveling to Britain in 1937. During World War II, he served as a flying officer in the Royal Air Force, was captured by Japanese forces in 1942, and endured over three years as a prisoner of war in Sumatra, where he demonstrated his engineering ingenuity by secretly building a radio receiver and an electric tea maker despite harsh conditions; for his bravery, he was awarded the Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE). Post-war, Phillips studied sociology and economics at the London School of Economics (LSE), graduating in 1949, and soon became a lecturer there, where his background in hydraulics and electrical systems inspired him to draw analogies between fluid flows and economic circulations, leading to the conception of a physical model for macroeconomic processes.^[4]^[3] In the summer of 1949, Phillips constructed the first prototype of the machine in his landlady's garage in Croydon, London, utilizing scavenged war surplus materials such as parts from decommissioned Lancaster bombers to keep expenses low. He received assistance from fellow LSE student and economist Walter Newlyn, who helped source initial funding of £100 from the University of Leeds economics department and collaborated on the assembly. Phillips was encouraged by economist James Meade to develop the device further. The total cost of building the prototype amounted to approximately £400, equivalent to about £18,000 in 2023 terms after adjusting for inflation using the UK Composite Price Index.^[5]^[6] Phillips initially named the device the MONIAC, an acronym for Monetary National Income Analogue Computing machine, deliberately evoking the contemporary electronic computer ENIAC to highlight its computational purpose in modeling economic dynamics. Alternative names proposed included "Financephalograph," reflecting its role in graphically representing financial flows, though MONIAC became the most enduring designation.^[7]^[8] The machine was calibrated specifically to simulate the UK economy using 1948 national income data, allowing it to replicate key macroeconomic relationships such as income generation, expenditure, and sectoral balances observed in post-war Britain. This calibration process involved adjusting hydraulic parameters to align with empirical economic statistics, ensuring the model could demonstrate equilibrium conditions and policy effects based on real-world figures.^[7]

Early Demonstrations and Adoption

The Phillips Machine received its inaugural public demonstration on 29 November 1949 at the London School of Economics, where A. W. H. Phillips presented it to a seminar led by economist Lionel Robbins.^[3]^[5] The device, a hydraulic analogue computer modeling Keynesian economic flows, impressed attendees with its visual representation of monetary circulation through transparent tubes and reservoirs, using water to simulate income, expenditure, and savings. In the immediate post-World War II period, when electronic computers were rare and expensive, the machine was hailed as an innovative teaching aid for illustrating complex macroeconomic dynamics without relying on abstract equations or limited manual calculations.^[2] Following the demonstration's success, production ramped up, with approximately 13 additional machines constructed after the prototype, bringing the total to around 14 units between 1950 and 1952. These were exported internationally, including versions adapted for specific economies; for instance, machines destined for the United States were calibrated using dollar values to reflect American economic parameters, while others were tailored for nations like New Zealand. The devices found early adoption in academic settings, with units installed at universities such as Leeds (which received the original prototype), Harvard, and Cambridge, where they served as practical tools for demonstrating Keynesian principles amid 1950s debates on economic modeling and fiscal policy.^[2]^[9]

Design and Principles

Physical Construction

The Phillips Machine is a substantial analog hydraulic computer, measuring approximately 1.8 meters in height, 1 meter in width, and 0.5 meters in depth, and weighing around 136 kg.^[10]^[11] It is mounted on a wooden or steel board resembling the size of a wardrobe, with transparent acrylic or perspex panels allowing visibility of internal components.^[10]^[1] The structure incorporates diverse materials, including plastic for tanks and pipes, bakelite, aluminum alloy, steel, copper, rubber, pine wood, and even repurposed components from obsolete Lancaster bombers such as windscreens and pumps from RAF disposals.^[10]^[12] Central to its build are numerous interconnected transparent plastic tanks arranged vertically, including a large bottom "National Income" tank, an adjacent smaller "Income" tank, and others for "Surplus Balances," "Consume," "Domestic Expenditure," "Government," and "Foreign Balances," among sectoral representations like government spending, imports, and exports.^[13] These tanks are linked by clear plastic pipes and overflow tubes that facilitate fluid circulation, with sliding gates, floats, pulleys, cams, and valves for control—some actuated mechanically or via servo motors.^[13]^[14] At the base, a small electric pump circulates colored water, typically green or blue to symbolize monetary flows, while a water-sensing switch and manometer tubes monitor levels and flows.^[13]^[12] The original prototype, constructed by Bill Phillips in his landlady's garage in 1949, utilized basic perspex and scavenged parts for a rudimentary assembly.^[14]^[12] Commercial versions, such as the Mark II produced in limited quantities, featured enhanced durability with refined perspex covers and improved metal fittings like Sutro weir slots for precise flow regulation, enabling prolonged use in educational settings.^[13]

Hydraulic Analog Mechanisms

The Phillips Machine, known as the MONIAC (Monetary National Income Analogue Computer), employs a hydraulic analogy where water volume symbolizes the stock of money, flow rates represent expenditures and income, and tank levels indicate cumulative balances such as savings or government funds.^[15] For instance, a rising water level in the "savings" tank visually depicts accumulation from unspent income, while outflows through pipes mimic spending on consumption or investment. The system operated at a speed approximately 24 times faster than real time.^[16] This fluidic representation allows dynamic observation of economic interdependencies, with colored water (often crimson-dyed) enhancing visibility of sector-specific flows.^[16] Central to the machine's operation are adjustable valves that control leak rates to model fiscal elements like taxes and the investment multiplier effect, where partial valve openings simulate proportional leakages from income streams.^[15] Impellers, driven by water wheels or pumps, generate flows proportional to upstream inputs, such as linking consumption expenditures to disposable income levels.^[15] Syphons and orifices introduce non-linear dynamics, with syphons enabling automatic transfers once thresholds are reached (e.g., overflow from high-income tanks to investment) and calibrated orifices enforcing diminishing returns through restricted flow paths that narrow with increasing pressure.^[15] These components collectively maintain balances approximating supply-demand equilibrium by balancing inflows and outflows across interconnected tanks.^[17] The machine's hydraulic elements were calibrated to replicate real economic data with high fidelity, achieving accuracy within 1-2% of theoretical values through precise tuning of pipe diameters, valve settings, and orifice sizes.^[16]^[17] This precision stemmed from empirical adjustments using graph paper recordings of steady-state flows, ensuring outputs aligned with Keynesian macroeconomic equations.^[16] Basic designs lacked integrated feedback loops for variables like inflation or interest rates, limiting representation of endogenous monetary dynamics without manual interventions or later add-on modules.^[15] Such omissions reflected the machine's focus on linear flow analogies, with enhancements in subsequent versions incorporating variable resistance elements to approximate these effects.^[18]

Operation and Simulation

Modeling Economic Flows

The Phillips Machine models the circular flow of income within a Keynesian framework, representing macroeconomic interdependencies among households, firms, government, and foreign sectors through the dynamics of water circulation. Water, symbolizing money or income, is pumped from a central "income" or "active balances" tank, distributing to various spending compartments before returning via leakage mechanisms such as taxes and savings. This setup visually captures the Keynesian cross, where aggregate demand—comprising consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports—interacts with supply to determine national income levels.^[1]^[19]^[12] Specific economic flows are analogized through interconnected pipes and tanks, with valves and mechanisms regulating rates. Government expenditure is represented by water flowing from a dedicated treasury tank, controlled by adjustable valves to simulate fiscal outlays funded by taxation. Private investment draws from a savings tank via an impeller-driven pump, illustrating how accumulated savings are channeled back into the economy as capital formation. Imports and exports are depicted by inflow and outflow pipes connected to a foreign sector tank, with valves adjusting for exchange rates to show trade balances affecting the overall circulation.^[1]^[19] The machine demonstrates economic equilibrium as a steady state where inflows equal outflows across the system, observable through stabilized water levels in the tanks. In this balanced condition, aggregate expenditure matches income, reflecting a closed circular flow without persistent surpluses or deficits; overflowing tanks indicate excess supply or inflationary pressures, while underfilled ones signal deficiencies like unemployment. This hydraulic visualization underscores the self-correcting tendencies in the Keynesian model under controlled conditions.^[1]^[18] The multiplier effect is illustrated by introducing incremental injections into the flow, such as increased government spending from the treasury tank, which cascades through consumption pipes and amplifies overall circulation. For instance, an initial surge in expenditure leads to heightened income flows that, after leakages, generate multiple rounds of re-spending, visually expanding the water volume in downstream tanks and demonstrating how one unit of injection can yield several units of economic activity.^[1]^[20]

Calibration and Adjustments

The initial calibration of the Phillips Machine involved setting valve openings and pipe resistances based on empirical data from the UK economy in the late 1940s, such as GDP and sectoral expenditure figures, to ensure hydraulic flow rates in gallons per minute approximated monetary values in billions of pounds.^[21] This process, conducted by Bill Phillips and Walter Newlyn, surprisingly achieved an accuracy of ±2% when compared against real economic data, demonstrating the machine's fidelity to Keynesian flow models.^[22] Calibration required careful measurement of water levels in tanks representing household, business, and government sectors to align initial conditions with observed national accounts.^[16] Adjustment procedures focused on tuning key economic parameters through rotatable dials and crank-wheels connected to cams and counterweights, allowing operators to set values such as the marginal propensity to consume on a 0-1 scale, tax rates as percentages of income, and export propensities relative to foreign demand.^[23] Manometers monitored head pressures in pipes to ensure precise control of resistances and flows, enabling simulations of policy changes like interest rate variations or fiscal adjustments without disrupting overall hydraulic balance.^[16] These mechanical interfaces facilitated real-time modifications during operation, with floats in tanks automatically regulating downstream expenditures based on upstream income levels.^[21] To run a simulation, operators started the constant-speed pump to initiate water circulation, mimicking money injection into the economy, and observed the system as flows stabilized and tank levels equilibrated on a time scale of approximately 2 minutes per simulated year.^[16] Outputs, including GDP equivalents and trade balances, were recorded via pen plotters on graph paper at 1 revolution per minute, providing visual traces of dynamic responses like multiplier effects on aggregate demand.^[16] This process allowed brief exploration of how parameter tweaks influenced economic flows, such as consumption multipliers, though detailed conceptual mappings are covered elsewhere. Troubleshooting addressed common issues like leaks from deteriorated seals or imbalances from uneven pipe resistances, often resolved by tightening connections or recalibrating affected valves to restore flow equilibrium.^[21] Maintenance routines included periodic draining of the system to remove sediment, cleaning pipes to prevent blockages from dye residue, and inspecting pumps for corrosion, ensuring long-term operational reliability despite the machine's mechanical complexity.^[23]

Applications

Educational Use

The Phillips Machine served as a vital educational tool in economics classrooms during the mid-20th century, particularly from the 1950s onward, by providing a tangible, visual representation of abstract macroeconomic concepts that were difficult to grasp through equations alone. In an era without accessible computers, it enabled students to observe dynamic economic flows, such as fiscal multipliers and balance of payments, using water to symbolize money circulation between sectors like government spending, investment, savings, taxes, imports, and exports. Institutions including the London School of Economics (LSE), Harvard University, the University of Leeds, and the University of Melbourne integrated the machine into their curricula, where it helped demystify Keynesian economics for undergraduates and honors students lacking advanced mathematical backgrounds.^[18]^[16]^[2] Teaching methods centered on interactive lectures and live demonstrations, where instructors manipulated valves and taps to simulate policy interventions and illustrate their effects on the economy. For instance, increasing government deficit spending could be shown to raise output levels by boosting water flow through relevant tanks, while adjustments to interest rates or export volumes demonstrated impacts on national income and employment. These hands-on sessions, often conducted during seminars or open days, fostered intuitive understanding by linking physical movements—such as rising or falling water levels—to economic variables plotted on integrated graphs. Economists like Abba Lerner, an early enthusiast who helped promote the device in the United States under the name MONIAC (Monetary National Income Analogue Computer), praised its ability to make Keynesian models accessible and engaging, thereby enhancing pedagogical effectiveness.^[3]^[16]^[24] The machine's influence on economics pedagogy was significant in the 1950s and 1960s, shaping curricula at major universities by emphasizing visual and analog simulation over purely theoretical instruction. It trained generations of students in mathematical economics principles, with reports noting that complex fiscal policy scenarios could be conveyed in as little as 30 minutes, far surpassing traditional lectures in clarity. This approach aligned with postwar efforts to popularize Keynesian ideas, contributing to a broader shift toward empirical and demonstrative teaching methods before the advent of digital tools.^[18]^[25] By the 1970s, the Phillips Machine began to phase out of active classroom use, supplanted by econometric software and electronic computers that offered greater precision, speed, and flexibility in modeling probabilistic and behavioral elements. Maintenance issues, such as leaks in the hydraulic system, further limited its practicality. Nonetheless, surviving examples continued to be employed for historical and illustrative purposes in educational settings, preserving its legacy as a pioneering teaching aid.^[18]^[9]

Economic Policy Simulation

The Phillips Machine found significant application in professional economic forecasting and policy analysis during the 1950s, particularly within government institutions seeking to test fiscal and monetary strategies. A majority of the approximately 14 machines constructed were allocated to military and government entities, where they facilitated simulations of fiscal policies to evaluate their impacts on national income flows and sectoral balances.^[26] These devices allowed policymakers to manipulate variables such as government spending and taxation, observing real-time adjustments in water levels representing economic stocks and flows.^[27] For example, a machine was used by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to simulate aspects of the national economy.^[28] One notable adaptation occurred in Australia in 1954, when the University of Melbourne acquired a machine calibrated to model the Australian national economy, enabling simulations of local fiscal scenarios including adjustments to imports, exports, and public expenditure.^[19] Specific policy scenarios demonstrated on the machine included modeling inflation arising from excess demand, visualized through overflowing tanks that signified imbalances in aggregate spending exceeding production capacity.^[27] Similarly, the effects of currency devaluation on trade balances were simulated by adjusting valves controlling import and export flows, illustrating shifts in foreign exchange reserves and net exports under altered exchange rates.^[7] Despite these applications, the Phillips Machine had inherent limitations for policy analysis, as it could not incorporate stochastic elements like random shocks or model long-term economic growth dynamics.^[26] It excelled in capturing short-run Keynesian adjustments, such as demand-driven fluctuations in income and expenditure, but fell short for frameworks like dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that require probabilistic expectations and intertemporal optimization.^[26] Historically, the machine influenced early macroeconomic planning by providing intuitive visualizations of policy trade-offs, though it faced critiques for oversimplifying behavioral responses, such as consumer expectations or firm pricing decisions, in favor of mechanical flow analogies.^[26]

Preservation and Locations

Surviving Examples

Between 12 and 14 units of the Phillips Machine, also known as the MONIAC, were produced commercially starting in the early 1950s, with production handled by Air Trainers Ltd. in Aylesbury, England.^[16]^[29] The original prototype, built by Bill Phillips in 1949, was first demonstrated at the London School of Economics (LSE); it was later transferred to the Science Museum in London in 2016.^[30]^[31] Subsequent units were sold primarily to academic institutions and organizations, including Harvard University, the University of Melbourne, the University of Cambridge, the University of Oxford, the London School of Economics, and the Reserve Bank of Guatemala.^[16]^[32] Notable examples include the unit now at the Reserve Bank Museum in Wellington, New Zealand, which was originally owned by the LSE and later recalibrated to model the New Zealand economy.^[22]^[2] The University of Melbourne's machine, acquired in 1953 for £995 plus freight and installed the following year, suffered minor damage during a relocation in 1963 but was rediscovered in the 1990s and preserved in stable condition with most original components intact.^[16] Harvard's unit, one of the early production models, was used for economic education and research.^[32] Many machines remained operational into the 1980s for teaching and simulation purposes before falling into disuse due to the rise of digital computing.^[29] The LSE prototype underwent restoration in the late 1980s by a team of engineers led by Allan McRobie, utilizing original parts to return it to working order; it was unveiled in December 1989.^[3] Several units are known to survive worldwide, including both functional demonstration models and non-operational displays stored in university collections or museums.^[16]^[29]

Current Status and Exhibitions

As of 2025, at least two physical examples of the Phillips Machine remain operational, allowing for demonstrations of its hydraulic economic modeling. The machine at the University of Cambridge, refurbished and actively used for educational purposes, was publicly demonstrated in 2022 by Professor Allan McRobie to illustrate macroeconomic flows.^[1] Similarly, the example at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's museum in Wellington continues to function and has been demonstrated publicly.^[33] Permanent exhibitions of the Phillips Machine are housed in key institutions worldwide, providing public access to this historical artifact. The Science Museum in London displays the original LSE model, conserved since its transfer in 2016, as part of its information age gallery to highlight early computational economics.^[31] The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's museum in Wellington features its operational MONIAC on permanent loan from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), integrated into exhibits on economic heritage.^[33] Temporary exhibitions have included the Bank of England's March 2025 "Museum Late" event, which combined virtual demonstrations with interactive elements to engage audiences on economic modeling history.^[34] Preservation efforts focus on maintaining the machines' functionality despite material degradation over decades. The NZIER led a major reconstruction of its example in the early 2000s, restoring key hydraulic components before loaning it to the Reserve Bank museum, ensuring long-term accessibility.^[35] Institutions like the Science Museum employ conservation techniques to address wear on transparent panels and seals, preventing leaks while preserving the original design. No significant losses or irreparable damages to surviving machines have been reported since 2023. Recent developments have expanded access through digital means, with virtual recreations emerging since 2023 to complement physical exhibits. The University of Cambridge released an interactive virtual Phillips Machine in 2024, allowing users to simulate economic scenarios online and experiment with variables, as highlighted in Financial Times coverage.^[36] Additionally, the Bank of England Museum introduced a virtual reality version in early 2025, enabling immersive tours of the machine's operations for global audiences.^[37] These digital tools have facilitated broader educational outreach without risking the fragile originals.

Legacy

Influence on Economics

The Phillips Machine popularized hydraulic analogies in economic modeling by representing macroeconomic variables as flows of water through transparent tanks and pipes, thereby illustrating stocks, flows, and feedback loops in a tangible, visual manner.^[13] This approach prefigured key elements of system dynamics, including the distinction between endogenous and exogenous variables, nonlinear functions, and information feedback structures, as later formalized in the field.^[13] By solving systems of differential equations mechanically to simulate economic equilibria and dynamics, the machine served as an early analog precursor to computational methods for modeling intersectoral interactions in economies.^[38] In academic legacy, the machine enhanced understanding of feedback mechanisms in macroeconomic models, enabling demonstrations of stabilization policies and dynamic behaviors that influenced generations of economists at institutions like the London School of Economics.^[13] Although Bill Phillips, its inventor, later developed the Phillips Curve in 1958 to describe the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, this theoretical contribution was unrelated to the hydraulic device he built in 1949.^[30] Translations of the machine's structure into system dynamics notation have further underscored its role in bridging physical analogies with software-based simulations of economic systems.^[39] The machine's concepts continue to inspire modern digital tools, such as the 2023 virtual MONIAC simulator developed in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, which recreates the original's hydraulic flows in mixed reality for interactive economic education using platforms like Apple's Vision Pro.^[40] In 2025, the Bank of England Museum introduced a virtual reality version of the machine, allowing interactive simulations without the physical hardware.^[37] This revival emphasizes the device's enduring value in making complex macroeconomic principles accessible, adapting its visual and adjustable features to contemporary teaching environments.^[40]

In Popular Culture and Media

The Phillips Machine has appeared in literature as a source of inspiration for fictional economic models. In Terry Pratchett's 2007 Discworld novel Making Money, the device is reimagined as the "Glooper," a hydraulic apparatus that simulates monetary flows in the city of Ankh-Morpork, blending magical elements with real-world economic principles drawn directly from the original machine.^[41] Economist Kate Raworth references the MONIAC (another name for the Phillips Machine) in her 2017 book Doughnut Economics as a historical example of early macroeconomic modeling, critiquing its oversight of energy inputs in economic cycles while using it to illustrate the need for more holistic frameworks.^[42] In media, the Phillips Machine has been featured in educational documentaries and demonstration videos that highlight its mechanical ingenuity. A 2017 short film titled Making Money Flow: The MONIAC, produced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, presents a live operation of a working model to explain economic flows, garnering attention for its visual representation of abstract concepts.^[43] Similarly, a 2021 video demonstration by Professor Allan McRobie at the University of Cambridge's Faculty of Engineering showcases the machine's hydraulics in action, contributing to online discussions of analog computing history.^[44] The machine has also been parodied and referenced in niche economic podcasts and comics, often for its Rube Goldberg-like appearance. For instance, episodes of Pod Academy in the arts and culture category have humorously likened it to a "maverick economist's plumbing project" to engage listeners with economic history.^[45] A 2022 public demonstration at the University of Cambridge's Faculty of Economics served as outreach, allowing visitors to interact with the model and sparking broader interest in analog economics beyond academic circles.^[1] Over time, perceptions of the Phillips Machine have evolved from mid-20th-century wonder at its innovative design—evident in 1950s demonstrations that captivated audiences with flowing water as a metaphor for money—to contemporary online fascination, where videos of its operation continue to circulate as explainers for complex economic ideas.^[27]

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Economics is broken. It has failed to predict, let alone prevent, financial crises that have shaken the foundations of our societies. Its outdated.
[44]
Making Money Flow: The MONIAC - YouTube
Aug 9, 2017 · Introducing Bill Phillips' amazing hydro-mechanical economic computer. A live demonstration of the only working MONIAC in the Southern ...Missing: Treasury 1952
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The Phillips Machine ( MONIAC ) - Demonstrated by Professor Allan ...
Apr 14, 2021 · Allan McRobie, Professor of Structural Engineering (Dept of Engineering, Cambridge), demonstrates "The Phillips Machine".<|control11|><|separator|>
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Arts and Culture Archives - Pod Academy
... Phillips machine? So a Phillips machine was designed by a maverick economist to imagine the British economy, and we can imagine the British economy as a ...