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Pre-mortem

A pre-mortem is a prospective hindsight technique used in decision-making and project planning, in which participants imagine that a proposed plan or initiative has failed and then identify potential reasons for the failure to preemptively address risks.^[1] Developed by psychologist Gary Klein and first detailed in a 2007 Harvard Business Review article, the pre-mortem method counters common cognitive biases such as overconfidence and groupthink by encouraging open dissent during the planning phase, rather than waiting for problems to emerge post-implementation.^[1] The process typically involves a team leader presenting the plan, followed by a hypothetical scenario where the project has failed one year in the future; team members then independently jot down possible causes of failure before sharing them in a structured discussion to brainstorm mitigations.^[2] Empirical studies have demonstrated the technique's effectiveness, with one 2010 experiment involving 178 participants showing that pre-mortems reduced overconfidence in plan evaluations more significantly than alternative methods like pros-and-cons lists or critical reviews (mean confidence drop of 25 points versus 12-14 points for others), while also enhancing post-revision confidence through targeted improvements.^[3] Widely adopted in business, healthcare, and policy settings, pre-mortems promote a culture of candor and proactive risk management, often taking just 30-60 minutes to yield insights that bolster project success rates.^[2]^[1]

Overview

Definition

A pre-mortem is a prospective risk assessment technique in which a team imagines that a project, decision, or initiative has failed at some future point and then identifies potential causes of that failure by working backward from the imagined outcome. This process enables participants to uncover hidden risks and vulnerabilities early, allowing for proactive adjustments to improve the likelihood of success.^[1] At its core, the pre-mortem leverages the concept of prospective hindsight, where individuals generate explanations for hypothetical future events as if they had already occurred, thereby enhancing foresight and reducing cognitive biases. By framing the discussion around an assumed failure, it encourages open expression of concerns, effectively countering groupthink—where consensus suppresses dissent—and overconfidence in initial plans.^[4]^[1] The term "pre-mortem" was specifically coined to mirror the established practice of a post-mortem, which retrospectively examines causes of failure after the fact, but shifts the focus preemptively to the planning phase.^[1]

Key Principles

The pre-mortem technique is grounded in the principle of prospective hindsight, which involves imagining a future event as if it has already occurred to generate explanations for its outcome. This approach, originally explored in a 1989 study, enhances the ability to identify potential reasons for future events compared to standard forecasting methods.^[4] Gary Klein adapted prospective hindsight specifically for the pre-mortem to enable teams to assume project failure upfront, thereby uncovering hidden risks and generating unbiased explanations without the constraints of forward-looking optimism.^[1] A core strength of the pre-mortem lies in its role in countering key cognitive biases that undermine decision-making. It mitigates planning fallacy by exposing underestimation of risks and timelines through imagined failure scenarios, and groupthink by fostering critical dissent in a structured setting.^[5] Empirical evidence supports this, as a study involving 178 students found that pre-mortems reduced overconfidence in plans more effectively than alternative methods like pros-and-cons analysis or critical reviews.^[3] The technique emphasizes emotional safety to elicit diverse and honest inputs from team members. By framing the exercise as a collective effort to diagnose an assumed failure—often starting with the leader modeling vulnerability—it creates a psychologically safe environment where dissent is valued as a sign of insight, rather than confrontation.^[1] This encourages quieter voices to contribute without fear of reprisal, broadening the range of perspectives considered.^[5] Logically, the pre-mortem employs a backward-tracing structure, beginning from the endpoint of failure and working reversely to map causal chains. This counterfactual reasoning disrupts linear planning assumptions, revealing interconnected vulnerabilities and enabling proactive adjustments to the original strategy.^[1]

History and Development

Origins with Gary Klein

Gary Klein, a research psychologist known for his work on naturalistic decision-making, developed the pre-mortem technique around 1991 while addressing challenges in project planning.^[5] This innovation emerged from his consulting efforts on initiatives involving complex decision support systems.^[1] Klein's primary motivation was to combat the pervasive overoptimism in organizational planning, where team members frequently hesitated to express doubts or highlight potential flaws due to group dynamics and hierarchical pressures.^[1] He observed that this reluctance contributed to elevated failure rates in high-stakes endeavors, as unvoiced concerns allowed risks to remain unaddressed during the critical early stages.^[1] By drawing on principles of prospective hindsight—imagining future outcomes to inform present actions—Klein sought to create a structured way to surface hidden vulnerabilities proactively.^[1] The technique found its initial applications in military and broader organizational contexts, where it helped mitigate planning biases in environments demanding rapid, reliable foresight.^[1] Klein's seminal formalization of the method appeared in his 2007 Harvard Business Review article, "Performing a Project Premortem," which outlined its conceptual foundations and practical value for enhancing decision quality. An early reference to the method appears in Klein's 1998 book Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.^[1]^[3]

Evolution and Popularization

Following its initial introduction by psychologist Gary Klein in 2007, the pre-mortem technique gained traction in business literature as a tool for countering cognitive biases in decision-making. Notably, Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman highlighted it in his 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow as an effective method to mitigate the planning fallacy and optimism bias, encouraging teams to prospectively identify failure causes rather than overlooking risks. This endorsement helped integrate pre-mortems into broader discussions on debiasing strategies within organizational psychology and management practices. During the 2010s, the technique saw wider adoption among major corporations for strategic foresight exercises. For instance, Google incorporated pre-mortems to foster critical thinking about potential risks and challenges in project planning, enhancing proactive problem-solving across teams.^[6] Simultaneously, its application expanded into fields like software development and healthcare, supported by case studies demonstrating its utility in anticipating implementation barriers; a 2017 Springer publication detailed how pre-mortems enrich planning by simulating failure scenarios to uncover hidden vulnerabilities.^[7] By the early 2020s, pre-mortems had evolved into applications addressing complex, high-stakes domains such as AI risk assessment and climate strategy. In AI contexts, the method has been used to anticipate ethical and operational failures in generative technologies, as explored in a 2025 Brookings Institution analysis that applies pre-mortems to mitigate societal risks from AI deployment.^[8] For climate strategies, pre-mortems aid in scenario-based threat identification, with a 2020 study employing the technique to evaluate homeland security impacts from climate change.^[9] A 2023 Forbes article further emphasized its role in refining strategic planning by systematically addressing unforeseen challenges.^[10] In health promotion, 2024 research in Translational Behavioral Medicine applied an implementation pre-mortem to enhance interventions for underserved communities, identifying barriers to program adoption in barbershop-based health initiatives for Black men. The pre-mortem has also influenced the development of hybrid risk assessment tools, particularly in agile frameworks where it inspires integrations with failure mode analysis to systematically prioritize and mitigate project threats during iterative sprints.^[11]

Methodology

Core Steps

The pre-mortem process begins with assembling a diverse team of stakeholders familiar with the project or decision under review, ensuring a range of perspectives to uncover blind spots. The facilitator, typically the team leader, then sets the scenario by instructing participants to imagine a future where the project has failed disastrously—for instance, stating, "It is one year from now, and the project has failed spectacularly." This prospective hindsight approach encourages backward reasoning from failure to identify potential pitfalls. The time frame for imagining failure can vary, such as one year or six months ahead, depending on the context.^[1]^[2] Next, participants engage in independent brainstorming for 5 to 10 minutes, during which each person privately generates a list of possible reasons or events that could have led to the failure. This silent phase minimizes groupthink and influence from dominant voices, allowing quieter members to contribute freely.^[1] Following individual ideation, the group reconvenes to share and consolidate the generated reasons in a structured discussion, often going around the room to ensure all voices are heard. The team discusses the reasons to identify key vulnerabilities in a blame-free environment to refine the collective understanding.^[1] Finally, the team develops targeted mitigation strategies for the identified risks, assigning owners and timelines where appropriate, and integrates these into the original plan to proactively address weaknesses. The session is designed to be efficient for integration into planning workflows.^[1]

Facilitation Techniques

Effective facilitation of a pre-mortem session requires a neutral guide to lead the process while fostering an environment that encourages open and diverse input. The facilitator acts as an impartial enforcer of the "failure mindset," refraining from injecting personal opinions and instead prompting participants to explore varied angles of potential derailment.^[1]^[12]^[13] This role ensures the session remains focused on prospective hindsight without bias, promoting psychological safety for all voices, particularly from dissenters who might otherwise hesitate to challenge the plan.^[1] To maximize participation and reduce hierarchy bias during initial idea generation, facilitators should prioritize anonymity, such as through individual silent brainstorming or anonymous digital input tools, allowing team members to jot down failure reasons privately before group sharing.^[13] This technique mitigates the influence of senior voices and encourages honest contributions from quieter participants, enhancing the diversity of risks identified. Common challenges like dominant individuals overshadowing others or sessions veering into undue pessimism can be managed by structuring turns for sharing—one idea per person in rotation—and redirecting focus to plausible, high-impact risks rather than improbable doomsday scenarios.^[12]^[14] For instance, limiting discussion to the top 10 risks helps maintain balance and productivity, ensuring the output remains actionable.^[14] For virtual teams, facilitation adapts seamlessly using collaborative platforms like Miro for visual brainstorming and sticky notes or Microsoft Teams for real-time interaction, enabling remote participants to contribute equally without logistical barriers.^[12] These tools support anonymous voting and shared whiteboards, preserving group dynamics across distances. Following the session, effective facilitators assign clear ownership to mitigation actions for each identified risk and establish review timelines, such as integrating them into regular project check-ins to track progress and adjust as needed.^[12]^[13] This follow-up step transforms insights into tangible safeguards, closing the loop on the pre-mortem's preventive intent.^[14]

Applications

In Project Management

In project management, pre-mortems are employed during early phases such as initiation and planning to proactively identify risks that could derail objectives, allowing teams to address vulnerabilities before execution begins.^[1] This technique shifts focus from optimistic projections to hypothetical failure scenarios, fostering a more balanced assessment of uncertainties in timelines, resources, and deliverables. For instance, NASA incorporates pre-mortems in engineering decision-making for mission planning, where teams imagine a decision has failed a year later and draft narratives explaining why, thereby uncovering technical risks like system integration flaws or environmental impacts that might otherwise be overlooked.^[15] A notable industry example is PayPal's adoption of pre-mortems in 2020 as part of its software design review process. Engineering teams conducted sessions to envision project failures, which helped anticipate issues such as misaligned architectures, duplicate efforts, and integration challenges involving API calls and latency requirements, enabling refinements that strengthened overall system reliability.^[16] Pre-mortems complement established project management frameworks by enhancing proactive elements; they augment PMBOK's risk registers, which document identified threats, by generating forward-looking failure hypotheses that populate and prioritize those registers more effectively.^[17] In agile environments, pre-mortems differ from retrospectives—which analyze past sprints—by emphasizing future-oriented failure prevention across an entire initiative, thus bridging planning gaps in iterative cycles.^[18]

In Strategic Planning and Other Fields

In strategic planning, pre-mortems serve as a proactive tool to uncover hidden risks in business strategies, such as potential market entry failures or unanticipated competitor responses, by imagining a future where the plan has collapsed. For instance, organizations conducting guided sessions can simulate scenarios like aggressive counter-moves from rivals that erode market share, allowing teams to refine assumptions and bolster contingencies before launch. This approach, outlined in a structured ten-step process, involves assembling diverse teams to anonymously brainstorm failure reasons—such as resource shortfalls or external disruptions—and then integrating mitigations to enhance overall strategy resilience. By addressing the common 70-90% failure rate (or 10-30% success rate) in strategic implementations, pre-mortems foster more realistic timelines and resource allocations, particularly for long-term horizons like five-year growth projections.^[10] Beyond business, pre-mortems have been adapted for interdisciplinary applications, including healthcare program implementation, where they help refine initiatives in underserved communities. A 2023 study (conducted in 2021) at a Federally Qualified Health Center utilized an adapted brainwriting pre-mortem during early and mid-stages of a COVID-19 testing program, engaging patients and providers to identify barriers like inadequate advertising, access issues, and result-handling delays. This process led to iterative refinements, such as streamlined texting for results and separate workflows for positive cases, ultimately improving program reach and equity in vaccination-like campaigns. Supporting evidence from implementation science indicates that such pre-mortem exercises reduce barriers by promoting team science and pragmatic adaptations, as demonstrated in a 2022 analysis where prospective hindsight identified threats like research-to-practice gaps and proposed solutions to boost public health outcomes.^[19]^[20] In human-computer interaction (HCI) education and development, teams use pre-mortems to anticipate potential project failures, including design flaws and ethical dilemmas, thereby enhancing reflection and planning during mid-project phases.^[21]

Benefits and Limitations

Advantages

The pre-mortem technique significantly enhances risk identification by encouraging participants to assume project failure has occurred and retrospectively diagnose causes, leading to the generation of 30% more potential threats compared to traditional prospective risk analysis methods.^[1] This prospective hindsight approach, developed by Gary Klein, leverages cognitive biases in reverse to uncover hidden vulnerabilities that might otherwise be overlooked in standard brainstorming sessions.^[22] Studies confirm that this method outperforms conventional techniques, with teams identifying a broader and more diverse set of risks early in the planning process.^[23] By fostering an environment where dissent is explicitly invited, the pre-mortem boosts team engagement and mitigates groupthink, allowing quieter or less dominant members to contribute without fear of reprisal.^[1] Evidence from Klein's 2007 analysis indicates that this dynamic results in higher-quality decisions, as it surfaces reservations that might suppress collective overconfidence during planning.^[1] The technique promotes psychological safety, enabling knowledgeable team members to voice concerns that enhance overall plan robustness.^[2] As a low-effort intervention typically requiring only 30-60 minutes, the pre-mortem delivers substantial return on investment by averting costly failures, such as multimillion-dollar overruns in large-scale initiatives.^[24] For instance, in one application to a billion-dollar sustainability project, the exercise revealed leadership transition risks that could have derailed execution, allowing preemptive adjustments.^[1] This efficiency stems from its ability to prevent expensive mid-course corrections through upfront mitigation.^[2] Empirical research, including quantitative evaluations from 2017 field and laboratory studies, supports the pre-mortems efficacy in elevating planning success rates by producing more actionable solutions and interdependency insights than alternative methods.^[23] Subsequent studies as of 2025 have extended these findings to real-world applications, such as adaptations for COVID-19 testing programs in healthcare settings and analyses in implementation science, demonstrating improved outcomes in diverse contexts like education and public health.^[19]^[20]^[25] These findings underscore its value in diverse settings, where teams using the technique demonstrate improved foresight and adaptability.^[24]

Potential Drawbacks

While the pre-mortem technique effectively uncovers potential risks by leveraging prospective hindsight, it is not without limitations. One notable drawback is the introduction of self-serving attribution bias, where participants tend to attribute imagined project failures to external factors beyond their control, such as market conditions or unforeseen events, rather than internal shortcomings like poor planning or execution errors. This bias can undermine the technique's goal of fostering accountability and proactive mitigation, as it shifts focus away from modifiable internal risks. Research across multiple studies, including domains like sports predictions and personal goal-setting, demonstrates that pre-mortems reduce overconfidence but exacerbate this attribution pattern compared to neutral reflection exercises, potentially leading to less effective remedial actions.^[26] Additionally, the efficacy of pre-mortems heavily depends on participant knowledge and skilled facilitation. The technique's structured steps, such as independent writing before group discussion, are designed to mitigate groupthink, but improper implementation may reduce its benefits. Experimental evaluations emphasize the importance of controlled settings for optimal results.^[27] These challenges underscore the need for careful preparation and moderation to maximize the pre-mortem's benefits. While early evidence was primarily from controlled studies, subsequent research as of 2025 has provided broader empirical validation through diverse real-world applications in fields like healthcare and education.^[27]^[19]^[25]

References

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Performing a Project Premortem
By making it safe for dissenters who are knowledgeable about the undertaking and worried about its weaknesses to speak up, you can improve a project's chances ...
[2]
Bias Busters: Premortems: Being smart at the start - McKinsey
Apr 3, 2019 · Conducting a premortem can help teams anticipate project failure—and head it off at the pass.
[3]
[PDF] Evaluating the Effectiveness of the PreMortem Technique on Plan ...
Furthermore, the Premortem method, imagining that a plan has failed and then generating reasons to explain why, reliably reduced confidence more than each of ...
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Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events
Prospective hindsight involves generating an explanation for a future event as if it had already happened; i.e., one goes forward in time, and then looks ...
[5]
The Pre-Mortem Method | Psychology Today
Jan 14, 2021 · The pre-mortem method has a number of benefits besides identifying trouble spots in a plan, reducing overconfidence and promoting discoveries.Missing: definition | Show results with:definition
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https://umbrex.com/resources/tools-for-thinking/what-is-pre-mortem/
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What is Pre mortem? Tools for Thinking - Umbrex
A pre mortem is a planning tool that involves imagining that a project or decision has already failed, and then working backwards to identify the potential ...
[8]
The Premortem Technique | SpringerLink
The Premortem technique raises awareness of possibilities, including their likely consequences, to enrich planning. Why History Repeats Itself.
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Imagining failure to attain success: The art and science of pre-mortems
Feb 6, 2025 · A pre-mortem analysis allows us to focus on potential first and second-order adverse effects so we can better anticipate the challenges AI poses ...Missing: technique | Show results with:technique
[10]
[PDF] The thoughts and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the ...
Nov 30, 2020 · Employing a scenario-based premortem analysis, the authors identified potential impacts of climate change on the homeland security threat ...
[11]
How To Improve Your Strategic Planning Through A Premortem ...
Apr 24, 2023 · ... premortem allows for “prospective hindsight.” In other words, it uses one bias (the hindsight bias) to beat another bias (the planning fallacy).Missing: combats groupthink
[12]
The Pre-Mortem: Preventing Product Failure Before It Strikes
Sep 9, 2024 · As a proactive risk-mitigation technique, the pre-mortem allows teams to identify and address potential failure points before they occur, ...Missing: analysis | Show results with:analysis
[13]
How to Conduct a Project Premortem [2025] - Asana
Jul 3, 2025 · To use the premortem technique, work backwards from the point of failure to identify potential risks with your project plan. Once you've ...
[14]
How to Run a Pre-Mortem Meeting: Easy 7 Step Process | Parabol
Make sure every action item is assigned to only one person to create accountability · Set a date to remind team-mates of action items · Follow up before you begin ...How do you run a Pre-Mortem... · Pre-Mortem questions for...
[15]
Premortem Tool - | Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
The concept of a project premortem was developed by Gary Klein and published in the Harvard Business Review in September 2007. Klein based the idea of a project ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[16]
How To Conduct an Effective Premortem Exercise (Plus Tips) - Indeed
Jul 24, 2025 · How to do a premortem · 1. Choose a visual medium · 2. Outline the project basics · 3. Give the team time to form ideas · 4. Write down all of the ...What Is A Premortem? · Premortem Vs. Postmortem · 5. Discuss The Risks With...
[17]
Mitigating Cognitive Bias in Engineering Decision-Making
Apr 11, 2018 · A recent Virtual PM Challenge explored the importance of raising awareness of cognitive bias in engineering decision-making and limiting its impact on NASA ...
[18]
Pre-Mortem: Working Backwards in Software Design - Medium
Jul 6, 2021 · Pre-mortem is a strategy in which a team imagines that a project has failed, and then works backward to determine what potentially could lead to the failure of ...Missing: Intel | Show results with:Intel
[19]
Get ahead of issues with a project premortem - Tempo Software
And according to scientist Gary Klein, using the prospective hindsight method improves a team's ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.Missing: prediction | Show results with:prediction
[20]
Use a Pre-Mortem to Identify Project Risks Before They Occur
Jul 11, 2024 · A pre-mortem is a meeting at the start of a project where stakeholders identify all possible problems that could impact successful delivery.
[21]
Adaptation of the brainwriting premortem technique to inform the co ...
Jan 3, 2024 · An adapted form of brainwriting premortem was used to inform iterative refinements to a COVID-19 testing program at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) ...
[22]
learning from a pre-mortem | Implementation Science - BioMed Central
Aug 13, 2022 · We offer such reflections and report on potential threats that might stymie progress, as well as opportunities to enhance the success and impact of the field.
[23]
Premortem as a Pedagogical Strategy in HCI Education
Jul 29, 2025 · This “teachable moment” paper introduces the premortem technique as a reflective and forward-looking pedagogical strategy for HCI education.
[24]
(PDF) Performing a Project Premortem - ResearchGate
Aug 7, 2025 · Premortem is a technique used to improve the success rate of a project by identifying potential risks before they happen (Klein 2007) .
[25]
Quantitative Evaluation of the Premortem Technique in Field and ...
... pre-mortem method and more solutions proposed, suggesting the pre-mortem ... Gary Klein · Peter Thunholm · Holly C. Baxter. A Key ...
[26]
Pre-empting project failure by using a pre-mortem - ResearchGate
Oct 23, 2017 · Pre-empting project failure by using a pre-mortem. October 2017; British Journal of Hospital Medicine 78(10):584-585. DOI:10.12968/hmed.2017.78 ...
[27]
[PDF] Problems with Premortems
Specifically, individuals doing a premortem engage in self-serving causal attribution, blaming their prospective failures on factors outside of their control ( ...
[28]
https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etdr/374