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Optimism bias

Optimism bias, also known as unrealistic optimism, is a cognitive bias in which individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of experiencing positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events in their own lives compared to those of others.^[1] This bias manifests as a systematic discrepancy between personal expectations and objective probabilities, leading people to believe they are less vulnerable to harm or more likely to achieve desirable outcomes than their peers.^[2] First systematically documented in psychological research by Neil D. Weinstein in 1980, who demonstrated it through surveys of college students estimating risks for various life events, the phenomenon has since been observed across diverse populations, cultures, and even non-human animals.^[3] The optimism bias is one of the most prevalent and robust cognitive tendencies, affecting approximately 80% of individuals regardless of age, gender, socioeconomic status, or nationality, though it is notably absent or reversed in people with depression.^[2] It arises from selective updating of beliefs, where positive information is more readily incorporated into one's worldview than negative information, a process mediated by neural mechanisms involving heightened activity in the amygdala and rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) during the imagination of future scenarios.^[4] These brain regions integrate emotional salience with autobiographical memory to favor optimistic projections, and disruptions in their function, as seen in mood disorders, can lead to pessimistic outlooks.^[5] While the bias offers adaptive benefits—such as improved mental and physical health outcomes (e.g., 30% lower risk of cardiac-related death and reduced anxiety), greater motivation for goal pursuit, and higher professional success—it also carries risks, including diminished engagement in preventive behaviors like health screenings or financial planning, and contributions to societal issues like economic bubbles or delayed responses to threats.^[2] Research continues to explore moderators such as perceived control and event desirability, which influence the bias's magnitude, underscoring its role in decision-making across domains from personal health to public policy.^[6]

Definition and Measurement

Core Definition

Optimism bias, also referred to as unrealistic optimism, is a cognitive bias characterized by the tendency for individuals to overestimate the probability of desirable outcomes and underestimate the probability of undesirable outcomes occurring to themselves compared to others or an objective baseline.^[7] This bias manifests as a systematic deviation from rational probability judgments, leading people to believe that good things are more likely and bad things less likely to affect them personally.^[8] A core feature of optimism bias is its comparative nature, where judgments about one's own future are favorably skewed relative to peers or the average person, rather than absolute overoptimism in isolation.^[7] It is one of the most robust and prevalent cognitive biases observed in psychological research, appearing consistently across diverse populations, including variations in age groups from adolescents to older adults and across cultures such as Western and Eastern societies, though the magnitude can differ based on cultural norms around self-enhancement.^[8]^[9] Everyday examples illustrate this bias clearly: individuals often underestimate their personal risk of contracting illnesses like heart disease or skin cancer, believing such events are more likely to befall others, while overestimating their chances of achieving professional successes such as rapid career advancement or financial stability.^[7] Similarly, people may downplay the odds of experiencing traffic accidents or relationship failures for themselves compared to the general population.^[8] Optimism bias differs from related phenomena like pessimism bias, which involves overestimating the likelihood of negative events for oneself, and the planning fallacy, a specific instance where individuals underestimate the time or resources needed for tasks despite evidence from past experiences.^[10]^[11]

Operationalization and Methodology

Optimism bias is operationally defined in psychological research through comparative judgments, where individuals assess the likelihood of specific events occurring to themselves relative to an average peer or population. This approach typically involves participants rating the probability of positive or negative outcomes on scales, such as estimating the chances of experiencing desirable life events (e.g., career success) or undesirable ones (e.g., health risks) for the self compared to others.^[3] Pioneered in seminal work, this method reveals the bias when self-ratings systematically deviate toward more favorable expectations than those for others.^[3] Methodologies for assessing optimism bias encompass a range of experimental and observational techniques. Surveys often employ Likert-scale questionnaires, prompting participants to rate event probabilities on a scale from "much less likely" to "much more likely" for self versus others, allowing researchers to quantify comparative discrepancies across diverse domains like health, finance, and relationships.^[1] Vignette-based experiments present hypothetical scenarios describing events to participants, who then provide self-relative judgments; this controlled format isolates the bias while minimizing real-world confounds, as seen in studies examining risk perceptions in safety contexts. Longitudinal designs track individuals' initial predictions against actual outcomes over time, providing evidence of persistent bias by comparing baseline optimism to realized events, such as in adolescent risk-taking behaviors where early optimistic estimates predict later discrepancies.^[12] A common metric for quantifying optimism bias is the optimism index, computed as the difference between an individual's self-estimate and their estimate for an average person (self-estimate minus average estimate) for positive or negative events; positive values indicate optimism for desirable outcomes, while negative values for undesirable ones signify the bias.^[1] This straightforward difference score facilitates cross-study comparisons and is widely adopted due to its simplicity in establishing bias at both individual and group levels.^[13] Assessing the validity and reliability of these measures presents challenges, particularly with self-report methods prone to social desirability bias, where participants may inflate optimistic responses to appear more positive or competent.^[14] Test-retest reliability is often low at the individual level due to fluctuating event perceptions, though group-level consistency remains robust across repeated administrations.^[1] To mitigate these issues, researchers incorporate indirect measures, such as belief-updating tasks where responses to new information are tracked, enhancing construct validity by reducing reliance on explicit self-assessments.^[15]

Historical Development

The concept of optimism bias, originally termed "unrealistic optimism," was first systematically identified and coined by Neil Weinstein in 1980 within the field of health psychology. In his seminal study, Weinstein demonstrated that individuals tend to underestimate their personal risk of negative health events, such as contracting diseases, compared to the average person, attributing this to cognitive factors like perceived control and familiarity with risks. This early work laid the foundation for recognizing optimism bias as a pervasive tendency in risk perception, primarily explored through surveys of health-related scenarios in the 1980s.^[16] A key milestone in the evolution of the concept came in 1988 with Shelley Taylor and Jonathan Brown's expansion of optimism bias into the broader framework of self-enhancement and positive illusions. They argued that mild forms of unrealistic optimism contribute to psychological well-being by fostering self-esteem and resilience, challenging earlier views that saw such biases solely as defensive errors. This shift integrated optimism bias with positive psychology, influencing subsequent research on its adaptive role in mental health. Influential figures like Weinstein, Taylor, and Brown established the bias as a core element of human cognition during this period. By the 2000s, research on optimism bias had broadened beyond health psychology to applications in economics and neuroscience. In economics, studies began examining how optimistic beliefs drive behaviors like increased work effort and investment decisions, with evidence showing that self-reported optimists earn higher wages due to prolonged hours. Neuroscience investigations, led by Tali Sharot in her 2011 work, revealed neural mechanisms underlying the bias, such as asymmetric updating where positive information is incorporated more readily than negative, linking it to brain regions like the frontal cortex.^[8] Sharot's contributions further embedded optimism bias within positive psychology, emphasizing its evolutionary persistence across cultures. Recent developments, particularly since the 2010s, have integrated optimism bias with computational models like active inference, which frame it as a precision-weighted bias toward positive predictions to minimize uncertainty in decision-making. For instance, a 2024 model proposes that optimism arises from high precision on likelihoods favoring beneficial outcomes, aligning with predictive processing theories in cognitive science.^[17] This evolution reflects a shift from descriptive studies in the 1980s to interdisciplinary frameworks by the 2020s, incorporating economics for behavioral impacts and neuroscience for mechanistic insights.

Theoretical Foundations

Valence Effects

Optimism bias exhibits a notable asymmetry based on the emotional valence of events, with individuals displaying a stronger tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes—such as risks and harms—compared to overestimating positive outcomes like benefits and successes.^[18] This pattern results in greater deviations from objective probabilities for undesirable events, where people often perceive their personal risk as lower than that of peers, while the bias is more muted for desirable events. For instance, in belief-updating tasks, participants integrate desirable information about future outcomes more readily than undesirable information, leading to persistent positive illusions about one's prospects.^[18] Empirical studies consistently demonstrate this valence-driven asymmetry, particularly in domains involving harm avoidance versus gain achievement. Research on health risks, such as underestimating personal susceptibility to diseases like lung cancer compared to overestimating chances of positive life events, reveals greater bias magnitudes for negative events than for positive ones.^[18] Meta-analytic reviews of unrealistic optimism further support that this effect is robust across cultures and event types, with approximately 80% of individuals exhibiting optimism bias.^[2] These findings highlight how valence shapes risk perceptions, with stronger optimism emerging when estimating avoidance of threats rather than attainment of rewards. Theoretically, this asymmetry in optimism bias traces to evolutionary pressures favoring threat avoidance, where underestimating dangers minimizes the fitness costs of false negatives in uncertain environments. Under error management theory, cognitive systems evolved to err on the side of overreacting to potential threats—prioritizing survival by downplaying personal risks—while positive biases motivate persistence and well-being, though they can lead to underpreparation for negatives. Quantitative evidence from belief-updating models indicates higher learning rates for positive valence than for negative, underscoring the adaptive tilt toward optimism in threat-laden contexts.^[18] Valence effects in optimism bias also interact with event controllability, such that the asymmetry intensifies for uncontrollable or low-efficacy events. When outcomes are perceived as hard to influence—such as unavoidable health threats—the bias toward underestimating negatives grows stronger, as motivational processes heighten optimism to cope with limited agency. In contrast, for controllable events, valence differences may diminish, with controllability itself not independently driving the bias but modulating valence impacts under high severity or low avoidance potential. This interaction explains why optimism is particularly pronounced in passive risk scenarios, like disease onset, compared to active pursuits.

Key Theoretical Models

Motivational theories of optimism bias posit that the tendency to overestimate positive outcomes serves to protect and enhance self-esteem, a process known as self-enhancement. According to this perspective, individuals maintain optimistic views to foster psychological well-being and resilience, as overly realistic assessments might lead to distress or reduced motivation. Complementing self-enhancement, self-presentation theory suggests that optimism arises from the desire to appear favorable to others, aligning personal predictions with social norms of desirability to manage impressions in interpersonal contexts. These motivational accounts integrate affective processes, where emotional satisfaction from positive self-views drives the bias. In contrast, cognitive theories emphasize informational processing errors, such as egocentric bias, where individuals overweight their own experiences and attributes when estimating risks or outcomes compared to others. Focalism further contributes by causing people to overly focus on their personal circumstances while underweighting broader, comparative factors that might equalize probabilities across individuals. These mechanisms lead to systematic deviations in judgment without invoking emotional motives.^[19] Integrated models bridge motivational and cognitive elements; for instance, the active inference model frames optimism bias as a Bayesian process where the brain assigns high precision to positive likelihoods to minimize prediction errors, thereby optimizing expectations for favorable futures in uncertain environments. This approach posits the bias as an adaptive strategy for efficient decision-making under ambiguity. Recent neuroaffective frameworks further explore how optimism arises from perceptual and projective processes, integrating valence effects with neural mechanisms of anticipation.^[20]^[17] Key differences among these models lie in their explanatory emphases: Taylor and Brown's affective framework highlights the psychological benefits of optimistic illusions for mental health, whereas Weinstein's informational model attributes the bias to flawed risk perception and egocentric information use, without requiring motivational underpinnings. Valence asymmetries, in which undesirable outcomes are underestimated more strongly than desirable ones are overestimated, offer empirical support across these frameworks.^[8]

Mechanisms

Cognitive Mechanisms

Optimism bias arises from several cognitive processes that systematically distort probability judgments, leading individuals to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate risks for themselves. These mechanisms operate through mental shortcuts and interpretive biases that prioritize personal relevance over objective data, often without conscious awareness. Key among them are heuristics and perceptual focuses that shape how information is processed and recalled. The representativeness heuristic contributes to optimism bias by prompting individuals to assess the likelihood of future events based on how closely they resemble vivid, stereotypical examples from personal experience, while neglecting base rates or statistical probabilities. For instance, people may judge their own chances of success in a venture as high because it "feels" representative of past personal triumphs, ignoring broader failure rates in similar endeavors. This heuristic, identified as a core bias in probabilistic reasoning, leads to overoptimism by substituting intuitive similarity judgments for rigorous statistical analysis.^[21] Singular target focus exacerbates optimism bias through an "inside view" perspective, where attention narrows to the specifics of one's own situation, causing individuals to overlook comparative historical data or aggregate outcomes from similar cases. When predicting task completion or project success, this focus on the self as the primary target results in underestimation of delays or obstacles, as external benchmarks are dismissed in favor of scenario-specific details. Experimental evidence shows that such predictions remain overly optimistic even when participants are aware of past inaccuracies in analogous situations, highlighting the heuristic's role in isolating personal narratives from broader evidence.^[22] Egocentric thinking fuels optimism bias by relying excessively on subjective personal experiences and abilities, leading to an inflated sense of control and underestimation of external constraints compared to others. Individuals tend to attribute positive outcomes to their own unique skills while downplaying factors like luck or systemic barriers that affect peers, resulting in comparative optimism where one views oneself as less vulnerable. This bias manifests in social judgments, where self-enhancement motives amplify perceived personal advantages, distorting risk assessments in domains like career or health predictions. Interpersonal distance modulates optimism bias cognitively, with the tendency being stronger when evaluating outcomes for oneself or close relations versus distant others or groups, due to differential attention to controllable versus uncontrollable elements. For close targets, judgments emphasize personal agency and vivid details, fostering overoptimism, whereas distant targets invoke more aggregate, probabilistic thinking that aligns closer to reality. This mechanism explains why optimism diminishes in third-party assessments, as reduced psychological proximity encourages consideration of base rates over individualized scenarios. These cognitive mechanisms complement motivational explanations, such as self-enhancement drives, by providing the informational processing pathways through which biased judgments emerge.

Neural and Affective Mechanisms

The neural underpinnings of optimism bias involve key brain regions such as the prefrontal cortex and the amygdala, where dopamine modulation plays a critical role in enhancing positive expectations. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have demonstrated that optimism bias is associated with heightened activation in the amygdala and rostral anterior cingulate cortex during the imagination of positive future events, reflecting an emotional prioritization of desirable outcomes.^[5] Additionally, dopamine's influence on prefrontal cortex function contributes to this bias by facilitating greater belief updating in response to positive information while attenuating responses to negative information, as evidenced by experiments showing increased optimism following dopamine enhancement via L-DOPA administration.^[23] This asymmetric updating mechanism, where individuals integrate desirable news more readily than undesirable news, further implicates prefrontal regions in maintaining unrealistic optimism despite contradictory evidence. Affective components contribute significantly to optimism bias, with positive mood serving to amplify the tendency toward favorable self-projections and underlying emotions motivating selective information processing. Positive affective states promote a broader attentional scope toward rewarding stimuli, thereby reinforcing optimistic beliefs through enhanced engagement with positive cues.^[24] Theoretical models highlight how affective decision-making integrates emotional processes with rational evaluation, leading to optimism bias as a strategy to maximize anticipated utility by overweighting positive payoffs.^[25] This emotional modulation acts as a motivator for biased cognitive processing, where the desire to sustain positive feelings drives the underweighting of threats.^[26] Recent neuroimaging research has revealed shared neural representations among optimistic individuals, particularly in the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), supporting consistent episodic future thinking that aligns with positive outlooks. In a 2025 study, optimistic participants exhibited similar patterns of MPFC activation when envisioning future scenarios, contrasting with the more variable representations in less optimistic individuals, suggesting a collective neural basis for resilience and well-being.^[27] Complementing this, active inference frameworks model optimism bias within predictive coding paradigms, positing that agents assign higher precision to positive outcome likelihoods to minimize variational free energy and align predictions with self-evidencing priors.^[17] The self-positivity bias, a neural preference for positive self-views, manifests in heightened activity in regions like the ventral medial prefrontal cortex during self-relevant positive evaluations, underscoring an intrinsic reward system that favors self-enhancing interpretations. This bias integrates with broader optimism mechanisms, where self-positivity emerges from overlapping neural circuits that prioritize affirming personal narratives over neutral or negative ones.^[28]

Influencing Factors

Motivational Factors

Motivational factors underlying optimism bias refer to the goal-directed drives that encourage individuals to overestimate positive future outcomes and underestimate negative ones, primarily to fulfill psychological needs such as maintaining well-being and social standing. These factors position optimism bias as a self-regulatory mechanism that aligns judgments with desired personal and interpersonal objectives, rather than purely reflecting cognitive errors. Research indicates that such motivations are particularly pronounced for controllable or personally relevant events, where individuals actively shape their expectations to support emotional resilience and adaptive behavior.^[29]^[1] Self-enhancement represents a core motivational driver, wherein optimism bias helps preserve a positive self-view by buffering against threats to self-esteem. Individuals exhibit this bias to foster feelings of superiority or competence, often leading to illusory beliefs that they are less vulnerable to risks than others, which in turn reduces anxiety and promotes mental health. For instance, in health contexts, people may downplay personal susceptibility to diseases to uphold self-regard, a pattern resistant to contradictory evidence due to its protective role. Empirical studies confirm that self-enhancement motives intensify optimism for desirable outcomes, as seen in comparative judgments where participants rate themselves more favorably than peers.^[1]^[11]^[29] Self-presentation further motivates optimism bias by encouraging individuals to project confidence and capability in social settings, thereby enhancing their interpersonal image. This drive prompts exaggeration of positive prospects to avoid appearing weak or overly cautious, aligning with impression management strategies that prioritize social approval. For example, under conditions of accountability to others, people modulate their optimistic estimates to maintain a favorable persona, as demonstrated in experiments where public scrutiny amplified bias toward positive self-attributions. Such motivations are rooted in the need to conform to social norms of positivity, making optimism a tool for relational harmony.^[11]^[29] Perceived control acts as a motivational factor by leading individuals to overestimate their personal agency over events, thereby instilling hope and motivating action toward favorable outcomes. This illusion of control sustains optimism by framing uncertain futures as manageable, encouraging persistence in goal pursuit despite objective risks. A meta-analysis of 27 independent samples found a significant positive association between perceived control and optimistic bias, with stronger effects among non-students and in Western samples, highlighting its role in adaptive coping. However, this overestimation can distort risk assessments, as individuals attribute greater influence to their actions than warranted.^[6]^[11] Desired end states encapsulate how optimism bias aligns judgments with aspirational goals, motivating individuals to envision and pursue idealized outcomes through wishful thinking. This factor drives selective processing that favors evidence supporting hoped-for results, such as in planning where potential benefits overshadow likely obstacles. Reviews of comparative optimism identify desired end states as prompting a "better-than-average heuristic," where motivations for positive self-concepts lead to biased probability estimates for controllable events. Consequently, this alignment boosts motivation but can result in underpreparation for setbacks.^[29]^[11]

Perceptual and Informational Factors

One key perceptual factor contributing to optimism bias is information asymmetry, where individuals possess more detailed and personal knowledge about their own circumstances compared to the generalized knowledge they have about others. This disparity leads people to overestimate their own protective factors and underestimate risks for themselves relative to the average person, as self-assessments draw on specific, idiosyncratic details that are unavailable when judging peers. For instance, in evaluations of health risks like contracting venereal disease or experiencing unemployment, individuals cite their own low-risk behaviors—such as monogamy or job stability—while assuming others engage in more hazardous actions due to a lack of comparable intimate information.^[16] Related to this is the tendency to underestimate the control or agency that others have over potential negative outcomes, while overattributing control to oneself. People often perceive the "average person" as passive or less capable of mitigating risks, such as avoiding accidents or maintaining health, because they project their own proactive strategies onto themselves but view others through a more stereotypical, less controllable lens. This egocentric attribution amplifies optimism bias, as seen in studies where participants rated their personal likelihood of negative events like heart attacks as lower than peers', partly because they believed they exercised greater preventive control than the typical individual did. Such perceptions foster a sense of personal exceptionalism in agency, contributing to biased risk comparisons without relying on motivational denial. Optimism bias also diminishes as interpersonal distance decreases, with psychological closeness to the target reducing the comparative advantage individuals feel over others. When people consider risks for close friends, family, or in-group members—whom they view as similar to themselves—the bias narrows because the abstract "average peer" becomes more concrete and relatable, prompting less favorable self-other differentiation. Experimental evidence shows that framing the comparison target as a "typical student" (an in-group identifier) rather than a distant "average person" eliminates optimistic judgments about academic success or health outcomes, as reduced social distance transforms the evaluation from a self-enhancing contrast to a more equitable assessment. This effect highlights how perceptual proximity modulates the bias's intensity. Finally, the person-positivity bias contributes to optimism by promoting inherently favorable evaluations of human targets over abstract or collective ones, leading to overly positive assumptions about personal and peer risks. Individuals tend to rate specific people—or even the prototypical "average person"—more optimistically than impersonal entities like statistics or policies, as person-like targets evoke leniency and positivity. In risk perception contexts, this manifests as underestimating vulnerabilities for oneself and concrete others, while statistical averages are judged more harshly; for example, people may view their own cancer risk as below average but still rate the "average person" (as a personified entity) more positively than base-rate data would suggest. This perceptual favoritism sustains optimism bias by softening negative judgments in interpersonal comparisons.

Applications

Health and Well-being

Optimism bias contributes to public health risks by leading individuals to underestimate their personal vulnerability to harmful behaviors and events. For instance, smokers often exhibit optimistic bias, believing their own risk of developing smoking-related diseases is lower than that of average smokers, which discourages cessation efforts.^[30] This bias extends to pandemics, where people perceive their likelihood of contracting COVID-19 as lower than peers', resulting in reduced adherence to protective measures like masking and social distancing.^[31] A 2025 study on behavioral change during COVID-19 found that optimistic bias mediated the relationship between perceived severity and protective behaviors, enhancing preventive actions despite case numbers and social connections influencing the bias.^[32] In mental health contexts, optimism bias serves a protective role by enhancing resilience and reducing anxiety, yet it can act as a barrier to seeking professional help. Among tertiary students, this bias manifests as an underestimation of personal mental health risks, leading to delayed access to support services even when symptoms of distress are evident.^[33] Research from 2024 indicates low utilization of counseling services among university students despite high rates of anxiety and depression, with barriers including reluctance to seek help.^[34] Conversely, moderate optimism fosters psychological resilience, buffering against depressive symptoms by promoting adaptive coping in stressful academic environments.^[35] Recent findings highlight optimism bias's influence on specific health outcomes. A 2025 study of breast cancer patients showed that higher optimism levels, combined with better sleep quality and physical activity, were associated with reduced cancer-related cognitive impairment post-surgery.^[36] In the context of COVID-19, spatial optimism bias led individuals to underestimate the pandemic's local duration compared to global projections, fostering premature relaxation of precautions.^[37] Overall, optimism bias offers adaptive benefits by motivating health-promoting behaviors and bolstering mental resilience, but it proves maladaptive in prevention by diminishing accurate risk assessment and encouraging risky choices.^[38]^[39]

Public Policy and Management

In organizational management, optimism bias often manifests as overoptimism in project timelines, closely linked to the planning fallacy, where individuals and teams underestimate the time, costs, and risks involved in future tasks despite historical evidence to the contrary.^[40] This bias leads to systematic delays and budget overruns in projects, as planners focus on internal, best-case scenarios rather than external benchmarks from similar past endeavors. For instance, reference class forecasting, a method developed to counteract this, has been applied in infrastructure projects to adjust estimates based on comparable outcomes.^[41] In corporate risk assessment, optimism bias similarly causes leaders to downplay potential threats, such as cybersecurity vulnerabilities or market disruptions, by overestimating positive outcomes and underestimating negative ones, which can result in inadequate resource allocation and heightened exposure to losses.^[42] Studies show this bias is particularly pronounced in high-stakes decisions, where executives believe their organizations are less vulnerable than peers, leading to flawed strategic planning.^[43] In public policy, optimism bias contributes to errors in financial planning and environmental risk perception, often resulting in underpreparedness for long-term challenges. For example, policymakers frequently exhibit optimistic growth forecasts in fiscal budgeting, associating planned adjustments with inflated economic projections that exceed actual outcomes, as evidenced in analyses of IMF data from over 100 countries.^[44] This leads to unrealistic revenue assumptions and subsequent deficits. Regarding climate change, a 2025 longitudinal study found that an optimistic bias in belief updating—where individuals integrate positive news about climate impacts more readily than negative—predicts lower engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, effectively sustaining denial-like attitudes and hindering policy support for mitigation efforts.^[45] Optimism bias has also been linked to overconfidence in financial markets, contributing to investment bubbles, such as underestimating risks in cryptocurrency adoption as of 2025.^[2] Emerging applications highlight optimism bias in technology adoption and digital behaviors. In medical AI, 2025 surveys reveal cautious optimism among health executives, with 75% viewing AI as beneficial for efficiency but only 12% trusting current algorithms for standalone clinical decisions, due to concerns over bias and reliability that temper overly positive expectations.^[46] A parallel issue appears in social media privacy, where a 2025 study of Instagram users demonstrated how optimism bias underlies the privacy paradox: users acknowledge data risks but overestimate their personal immunity, leading to habitual oversharing despite potential harms like identity theft.^[47] These patterns underscore policy implications for promoting realistic forecasting in budgeting and disaster preparation. Optimism bias in public planning often results in underfunded emergency responses, as seen in threat preparedness where assumptions of low-probability events delay investments until crises occur.^[48] To address this, policies incorporating behavioral nudges, such as mandatory reference class analyses, can foster more accurate projections, enhancing resilience in fiscal and risk management domains.^[49]

Debiasing and Interventions

Strategies for Mitigation

One primary strategy for mitigating optimism bias is awareness training, which involves educating individuals about the bias's existence, mechanisms, and consequences to foster metacognitive monitoring and self-correction. By highlighting how optimism bias leads to selective belief updating—favoring positive information while downplaying negative—training prompts deliberate reflection on potential risks and overoptimism in judgments. This approach targets cognitive mechanisms by enhancing recognition of biased processing, enabling individuals to adjust their expectations more realistically across personal and professional decisions.^[50] Comparative feedback serves as another key method, providing statistical norms or base rates from analogous past cases to counteract egocentric assessments that inflate personal success probabilities. Known as reference class forecasting, this technique shifts focus from an "inside view" of unique circumstances to an "outside view" grounded in aggregate data, thereby anchoring predictions to empirical realities and reducing overoptimism in forecasting timelines, costs, or risks. It specifically addresses perceptual and informational factors by supplying objective benchmarks that challenge subjective underestimation of negative outcomes.^[50] Scenario planning mitigates optimism bias by systematically encouraging the exploration of multiple future outcomes, including adverse ones, to broaden perspective and disrupt narrow, positive-focused narratives. A prominent implementation is the premortem technique, in which participants prospectively identify reasons for a hypothetical failure, surfacing hidden vulnerabilities and countering motivational drives toward unchecked positivity. This strategy targets cognitive and affective mechanisms by promoting comprehensive scenario evaluation, fostering balanced decision-making in uncertain environments.

Evidence from Interventions

Empirical research on interventions to debias optimism bias has primarily targeted its underlying mechanisms, such as asymmetric belief updating, with varying degrees of success in laboratory and applied settings. A foundational study by Sharot et al. (2011) identified that optimism bias persists due to greater integration of positive information than negative, linked to differential attention to estimation errors, where undesirable errors receive less neural processing; this finding has informed subsequent attention-based interventions that aim to equalize updating by directing focus toward negative outcomes.^[51] In controlled experiments, attention training and related cognitive bias modification techniques have shown partial effectiveness, reducing the asymmetry in belief updating by 20-30% immediately post-intervention, though these gains often diminish without reinforcement. For instance, implementation intention strategies, which prompt individuals to plan for potential negative outcomes, have led to significant but modest reductions in optimistic planning errors in lab tasks involving time estimates.^[11] In health contexts, interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted context-specific challenges and limited persistence. Risk communication efforts providing statistical data on infection probabilities did not significantly reduce optimistic perceptions of personal vulnerability, with the bias persisting in short-term assessments, but the bias reemerged as participants reverted to motivational tendencies to protect well-being, indicating that informational approaches alone are insufficient without affective components.^[52] Similarly, a media-based intervention using peer narratives to counteract unrealistic optimism about health risks eliminated the bias in certain conditions among exposed participants, promoting more accurate self-assessments of disease susceptibility.^[53] Public policy applications, particularly climate nudges, demonstrate further variability. Experimental video interventions designed to counter optimistic updating about environmental risks failed to significantly alter beliefs in some cases, as the anticipated asymmetry was absent or minimal in collective threat scenarios, resulting in negligible behavioral shifts toward pro-environmental actions. In contrast, reference class forecasting nudges—comparing personal projections to historical data—have helped reduce optimism in policy planning for project timelines, aiding more realistic resource allocation in areas like disaster preparedness.^[54]^[49] Overall, while lab-based interventions achieve partial bias reductions, real-world persistence is hindered by rebound effects, where optimistic tendencies resurface post-intervention due to habitual cognitive patterns, and individual differences, such as higher baseline optimism or age-related variations, which attenuate outcomes for certain groups. These limitations underscore the need for repeated, tailored applications to maintain effects.^[11]

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We argue that these desired end-states have prompted the development of a motivation-based heuristic, the better-than- average heuristic (Alicke, Klotz, ...
[28]
Personal Fable: Optimistic Bias in Cigarette Smokers - PMC - NIH
This bias exposes individuals to adopt lifestyles potentially dangerous for their health, underestimate the risks and overestimate the immediate positive ...
[29]
“It Won't Happen to Us”: Unrealistic Optimism Affects COVID-19 Risk ...
Jul 21, 2021 · Given these findings, it seems likely that an unrealistic optimism might lead people to underestimate the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic ( ...
[30]
Optimism bias, judgment of severity, and behavioral change during ...
Jan 2, 2025 · This study highlights the beneficial role of optimism bias, both physically and psychologically, during the COVID-19 pandemic.Missing: closeness | Show results with:closeness
[31]
Full article: Optimism bias as a barrier to accessing mental health ...
Apr 16, 2024 · The existence of an optimism bias can mean that people are less likely to engage in self-protective behaviours, delay help seeking or fail to ...
[32]
Optimism bias as a barrier to accessing mental health support ...
Oct 19, 2025 · This study investigated whether optimism was adaptive or maladaptive in an academic context. Participants were 715 psychology students with a ...
[33]
Complex associations between anxiety, depression, and resilience ...
This study highlights the complex interrelationships between psychological resilience, anxiety, and depression among college students through network analysis.Missing: tertiary | Show results with:tertiary
[34]
Optimism, sleep quality, physical activity, and cancer-related ...
Optimism and positive health behaviors may mitigate CRCI. This study examined relationships between optimism, health behaviors (sleep quality and physical ...
[35]
Spatial Optimism in Individuals' Future Thinking About the COVID ...
Jun 13, 2025 · We investigated whether spatial optimism was evident in people's beliefs about the estimated duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.
[36]
Optimism bias, judgment of severity, and behavioral change during ...
Jan 2, 2025 · This study highlights the beneficial role of optimism bias, both physically and psychologically, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
[37]
Optimistic bias and preventive behavioral engagement in the context ...
Jun 3, 2020 · Optimistically biased respondents underestimated the risk of COVID-19; thus, they felt less anxiety and fear about this disease. Consequently, ...
[38]
Planning fallacy - The Decision Lab
Both the planning fallacy and optimism bias describe our tendency to overestimate the likelihood of experiencing positive outcomes. While closely related, these ...
[39]
Planning Fallacy - Causes and Solutions for Project Expectations - PMI
Jul 17, 2012 · Curbing optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice. European Planning Studies, 16(1) ...
[40]
Optimism bias and its impact on cyber risk management decisions
... information asymmetry possibly leading to adverse selection and moral ... self-protection is implemented, thereby showing optimism bias. Our findings ...Optimism Bias And Its Impact... · 2. Theoretical Background... · 4. Decision-Making Under...
[41]
The Impact of Optimism Bias in Risk Assessments
Optimism bias, also referred to as unrealistic or comparative optimism, is a cognitive bias where individuals believe they are less likely to experience ...
[42]
Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts-The Role of Planned Policy ...
Nov 8, 2020 · We find that large planned fiscal and external adjustments are associated with optimistic growth projections, with significant non-linearities ...Ii. Review Of The Literature · Iv. Econometric Strategy · V. Optimism Bias In...
[43]
Optimistic bias in updating beliefs about climate change ... - NIH
May 21, 2025 · The results suggest that an optimistic bias in belief updating longitudinally predicts low engagement in PEB, possibly because selectively integrating good ...
[44]
How Do Health Executives View AI? 3 Takeaways from New Survey
Sep 9, 2025 · Only 12% believe today's AI algorithms are robust enough to rely on. · Only 13% have a clear strategy for integrating AI into clinical workflows.<|separator|>
[45]
Instagram: Risk Habituation, Optimism Bias and Privacy Paradox
Sep 5, 2025 · The study results identify the existence of the privacy paradox and use the explanations of risk habituation and optimism bias to support the ...
[46]
The Optimism Bias Trap: Rethinking Threat Preparedness
Aug 6, 2025 · Ultimately, reducing optimism bias is not about fostering paranoia but about replacing assumptions with evidence and about re-centering ...Missing: forecasting budgeting implications
[47]
Optimism Bias: Mechanisms, Implications, and Mitigation in ...
Jun 29, 2025 · Optimism bias is a cognitive bias where people overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate negative ones, believing bad events are less ...
[48]
Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning
This paper details the method and describes the first instance of reference class forecasting in planning practice.
[49]
How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality - PMC
Specifically, we show a striking asymmetry, whereby people updated their beliefs more in response to information that was better than expected compared to ...Missing: meta- | Show results with:meta-
[50]
Risk information alone is not sufficient to reduce optimistic bias - PMC
As an intervention to reduce bias, they recommend, among other things, that reinforcing the actual risk of COVID-19 may be an effective intervention to ...
[51]
Media intervention program for reducing unrealistic optimism bias
Unrealistic optimism is the tendency to perceive oneself as safer than others in situations that equally threaten everybody. By reducing fear, this bias boosts ...
[52]
How people update their beliefs about climate change: An ...
Aug 16, 2023 · Contrary to beliefs about one's personal future, most people are not prone to an optimistic update bias when processing new information on climate change.
[53]
Optimism Bias during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence ...
We surveyed 1126 Romanians and 742 Italians, and found that optimism bias depends on self-reported health status, and that optimism bias increases with age.