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Solar particle event

A solar particle event (SPE), also known as a solar energetic particle (SEP) event or solar proton event, is a transient burst of high-energy charged particles—primarily protons, but also electrons, helium nuclei (alpha particles), and heavier ions—ejected from the Sun into interplanetary space, often reaching relativistic speeds approaching the speed of light.^[1]^[2] These events are triggered by explosive solar activity, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), where particles are accelerated by shock waves in the solar wind or magnetic reconnection processes near the Sun's surface.^[1]^[2] Officially defined by space weather monitoring agencies as occurring when the peak flux of protons with energies greater than 10 MeV exceeds 10 particles per square centimeter per second per steradian at geostationary orbit, SPEs typically last from hours to days and are most frequent during the peak of the Sun's 11-year activity cycle, known as solar maximum.^[3] SPEs are classified into two main types based on their origins and characteristics: impulsive events, which are shorter-lived (hours to a day) and dominated by electrons and ^3He-rich ions accelerated directly in solar flares, and gradual events, which are longer (days) and proton-rich, driven by diffusive acceleration at CME-induced shocks propagating through the interplanetary medium.^[2] Particle energies in these events can range from tens of keV up to several GeV, with protons above 30 MeV capable of penetrating spacecraft shielding and Earth's magnetosphere, particularly at high latitudes.^[1]^[2] Monitoring of SPEs relies on satellites like NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), which detect X-ray emissions, proton fluxes, and solar imagery to provide early warnings.^[3] The primary impacts of SPEs stem from their contribution to space radiation, which can deliver acute doses to humans and degrade electronics in orbit. For astronauts on missions beyond low-Earth orbit, such as those to the Moon or Mars, exposure to a major SPE could result in radiation doses exceeding 1 Gy (gray), risking acute radiation sickness, increased cancer probability, or mission-aborting interruptions; for instance, shielding requirements for deep-space habitats must account for these sporadic high-flux events.^[2] On Earth, SPEs can disrupt high-frequency radio communications, GPS signals, and airline flights over polar routes due to enhanced ionization in the atmosphere, while satellites face single-event upsets (SEUs) that corrupt data or cause system failures.^[1]^[3] Notable historical SPEs include the August 1972 event, which occurred between NASA's Apollo 16 and 17 missions and delivered a proton fluence of approximately 4.7 × 10^9 cm⁻² above 30 MeV—potentially lethal without adequate shelter—and the 1859 Carrington Event, estimated to have produced a fluence of 1.88 × 10^10 cm⁻² above 30 MeV, though direct measurements were unavailable at the time.^[2] More recently, during Solar Cycle 25, which reached maximum around 2024–2025, a significant SPE in May 2024 was associated with ground-level enhancement GLE 74, the strongest space weather event since 2003. Over the period from 1976 to 2006, approximately 224 SPEs were recorded meeting the standard peak flux threshold above 10 MeV, underscoring their rarity but high consequence during solar maximum, when large events (fluence >10^9 cm⁻²) may occur a few times per cycle.^[4]^[5]^[6]

Definition and Characteristics

Overview and Definition

A solar particle event (SPE), also referred to as a solar energetic particle (SEP) event, is officially defined by space weather monitoring agencies as occurring when the flux of protons with energies greater than 10 MeV exceeds 10 particles per square centimeter per second per steradian at 1 AU.^[3] It is a transient burst of high-energy charged particles, primarily protons along with electrons, alpha particles, and heavier ions, that are accelerated and ejected from the Sun into interplanetary space.^[1] These events involve particles with energies spanning from approximately 10 keV to several GeV, far exceeding the typical energies of ambient solar plasma.^[7] Protons constitute the majority of the particle composition, often exceeding 90% in many events, with the remainder comprising helium nuclei (alpha particles) and trace amounts of heavier elements.^[8] SPEs typically last from a few hours to several days, distinguishing them from the continuous flow of the solar wind, which streams steadily from the Sun at speeds of 300–800 km/s and carries protons with energies of only 0.5–3 keV.^[9] Unlike the relatively low-energy and persistent solar wind, SPEs represent episodic enhancements in particle intensity, capable of reaching relativistic speeds up to 90% of the speed of light for the highest-energy components.^[7] The frequency of these events correlates with solar activity, peaking during solar maximum phases of the approximately 11-year solar cycle.^[1] Key characteristics of SPEs are quantified through metrics such as fluence (the total number of particles per unit area, typically in particles/cm²), peak flux (the maximum intensity of particles arriving per unit time per unit area), and the energy spectrum (describing the distribution of particle energies).^[10] These parameters provide essential context for assessing the scale and potential impacts of individual events, with fluences varying widely depending on the event's magnitude.^[11]

Physical Properties

Solar particle events (SPEs) primarily involve protons with energies ranging from approximately 10 MeV to over 10 GeV, though lower-energy particles down to ~10 keV can also contribute in some cases.^[9] The energy spectrum of these protons is typically characterized by a power-law distribution, expressed as J(E) \propto E^{-\gamma}, where J(E) is the differential flux at energy E, and the spectral index \gamma generally falls between 2 and 5, reflecting the acceleration processes and subsequent modifications during propagation.^[12] This distribution often exhibits a spectral break or "knee" at energies around 10–100 MeV, where the spectrum steepens due to differences in injection and transport effects.^[13] The composition of particles in SPEs is dominated by protons, which constitute 90–95% of the total, followed by 4–5% helium-4 nuclei (alpha particles), with trace amounts of heavier elements ranging from carbon to iron making up the remainder.^[14] This breakdown mirrors the coronal composition of the Sun, though impulsive events may show enhancements in certain isotopes like ^3He or suprathermal ions.^[15] Electrons are also present but typically at lower abundances, and their fluxes peak at energies below 1 MeV, separate from the ion-dominated higher-energy component.^[7] In interplanetary space, particles from SPEs exhibit significant anisotropy, often manifesting as bidirectional streaming along magnetic field lines, with flows directed both toward and away from the Sun due to scattering and magnetic mirroring.^[16] High-energy particles can achieve velocities up to 0.9c, enabling rapid propagation across the heliosphere, while velocity dispersion leads to delays in arrival times for lower-energy components.^[7] This anisotropic behavior is modulated by interplanetary magnetic field structures, such as shocks or current sheets, influencing the observed pitch-angle distributions.^[17] SPEs are classified by intensity based on the integrated proton fluence above 10 MeV, which helps assess potential impacts, with major events often linked to extreme solar activity during solar maximum phases.^[18]

Origins and Generation

Solar Flare Associations

Solar flares represent explosive releases of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's corona, triggered primarily by the process of magnetic reconnection that rapidly restructures twisted magnetic field lines.^[19] This sudden energy conversion heats plasma to tens of millions of kelvins and accelerates charged particles, producing emissions across the electromagnetic spectrum, including intense soft X-rays. Flares are classified according to their peak flux of soft X-rays in the 1–8 Å wavelength band, as measured by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES); the classes range from A (weakest, <10^{-7} W/m²) to X (strongest, >10^{-4} W/m²), with numerical subclasses indicating relative intensity within each category—for instance, an X1 flare is 10 times brighter than an M1. In the context of solar particle events (SPEs), solar flares contribute through impulsive acceleration during their initial phase, where protons and other ions gain energies up to several GeV via direct interaction with reconnection sites or associated shock waves propagating along reconnected flare loops.^[20] Magnetic reconnection efficiently converts magnetic energy into particle kinetic energy, often producing power-law spectra characteristic of impulsive SPEs enriched in electrons, protons, and heavier ions relative to the solar wind composition.^[21] These flare-accelerated particles can escape into interplanetary space along open magnetic field lines, reaching Earth in tens of minutes if the flare is well-connected to the observer. Only a subset of solar flares generates detectable SPEs at Earth, with studies indicating that approximately 3.5% of major M- and X-class events produce significant particle fluxes (>10 MeV protons exceeding 10 cm^{-2} s^{-1} sr^{-1}), increasing to about 21% for X-class flares and up to 47% for long-duration (≥0.3 h) events in the western solar hemisphere due to favorable magnetic connectivity.^[5] A prominent historical case is the X20-class flare on August 4, 1972, from active region McMath 11976, which triggered one of the most intense SPEs on record, with peak proton fluxes at >10 MeV exceeding 10^5 cm^{-2} s^{-1} sr^{-1} and posing severe radiation hazards to astronauts and high-altitude flights.^[22] While some SPEs arise predominantly from flare processes, overlap exists with coronal mass ejections that can enhance particle acceleration through interplanetary shocks.^[23]

Coronal Mass Ejection Roles

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are massive expulsions of plasma and magnetic flux from the Sun's corona into the heliosphere, typically consisting of billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma ejected at speeds ranging from 250 to 3000 km/s. These events often involve the eruption of twisted magnetic flux-rope structures, which are coherent bundles of magnetic field lines carrying substantial plasma loads. While CMEs frequently co-occur with solar flares, their large-scale dynamics distinguish them as primary drivers of widespread particle acceleration in the interplanetary medium.^[24]^[25]^[26] In solar particle events (SPEs), particularly the gradual type, CMEs play a central role by driving interplanetary shocks that accelerate charged particles to high energies. According to diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) theory, particles such as protons and electrons gain energy stochastically by scattering across the shock front, where the supersonic flow of solar wind plasma compresses and reflects particles multiple times, increasing their velocity with each crossing. This first-order Fermi process is most efficient at quasi-parallel shocks formed ahead of fast-moving CMEs, with acceleration rates depending on the shock's Mach number and the ambient magnetic turbulence, often amplified by self-generated Alfvén waves from the particles themselves. DSA enables particles to reach energies from keV to GeV levels, contributing the bulk of the fluence in large SPEs observed at 1 AU.^[27]^[28]^[29] As CMEs propagate outward, shocks begin forming at low coronal heights of approximately 1.5 to 3 solar radii from the Sun's surface, where the ejection speed exceeds the local fast magnetosonic speed, creating a compressive front that extends into the solar wind. These shocks then expand radially and laterally, accelerating seed particles from the ambient solar wind or corona over broad longitudinal extents, allowing accelerated particles to stream along interplanetary magnetic field lines to distant observers. The shock's geometry evolves with distance, becoming weaker and more oblique farther out, which limits acceleration efficiency beyond several solar radii but enables the particles to fill large heliospheric volumes.^[30]^[31]^[32] A notable historical illustration of CME-driven SPEs is the event on December 13, 2006, triggered by a fast halo CME following an X3.4-class flare, which produced one of the highest recorded fluences of solar energetic particles in solar cycle 23, with proton integrals exceeding 10^9 particles cm^{-2} sr^{-1} above 10 MeV at 1 AU. Observations from multiple spacecraft, including GOES and PAMELA, confirmed the shock's role in sustaining prolonged high-energy fluxes over days, highlighting the exceptional acceleration efficiency of such events.^[33]^[34]^[35]

Types of Events

Impulsive Events

Impulsive solar particle events, also known as impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) events, are characterized by a rapid onset typically within less than 1 hour and a short duration of less than 1 day.^[7] These events feature distinct particle compositions, including significant enrichments in electrons and the isotope ^3He, with ^3He/^4He ratios often exceeding 1%—up to 10,000 times higher than in the solar wind.^[7] This enrichment distinguishes them from other SEP types and reflects acceleration processes that preferentially select lighter isotopes.^[36] The origins of impulsive events are primarily tied to magnetic reconnection sites in solar flares, particularly at the interfaces between active regions and open magnetic field lines in the corona, such as in solar jets.^[7] These reconnection events release energy abruptly, accelerating particles directly within the flare environment with minimal involvement from shock waves, unlike longer-duration events.^[37] Observations link these events to type III radio bursts and small- to medium-scale flares, often without associated large coronal mass ejections (CMEs).^[36] In terms of spectral properties, impulsive events exhibit steeper energy spectra, with power-law indices γ greater than 3, indicating a softer distribution compared to other SEP classes.^[7] The dominant particle energies are lower, typically below 100 MeV for protons and ions, with electrons in the 2–100 keV range, reflecting the localized and efficient acceleration near the reconnection site.^[38] In contrast to gradual events, which can persist for days, impulsive events' brevity limits their heliospheric extent but highlights their role in studying flare-driven particle acceleration.^[7]

Gradual Events

Gradual solar particle events feature a delayed onset of several hours following the initiating solar eruption, with durations typically lasting 1 to 5 days, marked by a gradual rise and prolonged decay in particle intensities. These events are primarily dominated by protons accelerated to energies above tens of MeV via diffusive shock acceleration mechanisms.^[7] Unlike impulsive events, which exhibit enrichment in electrons and helium-3 from magnetic reconnection processes, gradual events reflect acceleration of more solar wind-like compositions with balanced ion abundances.^[39] The origins of these events stem from fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive interplanetary shocks, enabling particle injection and acceleration over extended periods as the shock propagates outward from the Sun.^[2] This sustained interaction with ambient plasma and suprathermal seeds results in broad spatial coverage, often spanning up to 180 degrees in longitude, and peak intensities that coincide with shock passage at 1 AU.^[7] Gradual events exhibit relatively flat energy spectra, characterized by power-law indices γ ≈ 2–3, which contribute to their higher event-integrated fluences exceeding 10^9 protons cm⁻² above 10 MeV in large cases.^[40] Though fewer in number than small impulsive events, gradual events drive the majority of significant radiation hazards due to their scale and persistence.^[2]

Detection Methods

Ground-Based Observations

Ground-based observations of solar particle events (SPEs) primarily rely on indirect detections through interactions of high-energy particles with Earth's atmosphere, enabling terrestrial instruments to record secondary effects without direct exposure to space conditions. These methods complement space-based measurements by providing long-term, global monitoring of particle fluxes at ground level.^[41] Neutron monitors form the backbone of ground-based SPE detection, capturing secondary neutrons produced when high-energy protons from SPEs collide with atmospheric nuclei, generating cascades of particles that reach sea level. These instruments, part of a worldwide network established since the 1950s, measure increases in neutron count rates known as ground level enhancements (GLEs), which indicate relativistic solar particles with energies above several GeV. The Oulu neutron monitor in Finland, operational since 1964, exemplifies this network by providing continuous data on GLE events, contributing to analyses of particle fluences and spectral properties during major SPEs.^[42]^[43]^[44] Ionospheric disturbances from SPEs, particularly polar cap absorption (PCA) events, are observed through enhanced D-region ionization caused by precipitating solar protons, leading to radio wave absorption detectable via very low frequency (VLF) signals. VLF radio receivers monitor phase shifts and amplitude changes in propagated signals, as the increased electron density in the polar ionosphere alters waveguide properties during proton bombardment. These effects, prominent at high latitudes, allow real-time tracking of SPE onset and duration.^[45]^[46] Riometers complement VLF observations by quantifying cosmic radio noise absorption in the D-region, where SPE-induced ionization scatters and absorbs incoming radio waves at frequencies around 30-50 MHz. Deployed in polar regions, riometers record decreases in noise levels during PCA events, providing integrated measures of electron density enhancements and proton flux estimates. This technique has been essential for mapping the spatial extent of ionization patches during intense SPEs.^[47]^[48] A historical milestone in ground-based SPE detection occurred during the events of February 1956, when neutron monitors first recorded significant GLEs from solar protons, marking the initial confirmation of relativistic particles reaching Earth's surface and establishing the foundation for modern monitoring networks.^[49]

Space-Based Measurements

Space-based measurements provide direct, in-situ observations of solar particle events (SPEs) by detecting energetic particles and associated electromagnetic signatures near their source or along their propagation paths, enabling real-time monitoring and characterization of particle fluxes, compositions, and acceleration processes.^[4] These observations are crucial for distinguishing between impulsive and gradual SPE types and for issuing timely space weather alerts.^[50] The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), operated by NOAA, feature the Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) as a primary instrument for SPE detection, measuring proton fluxes in multiple energy channels ranging from >1 MeV to >500 MeV.^[51] The EPS uses solid-state detectors with pulse-height discrimination to quantify differential and integral fluxes of protons, electrons, and alpha particles, providing continuous data from geosynchronous orbit to track event onset, peak intensities, and durations.^[52] For instance, during major SPEs, GOES EPS records can show proton fluxes exceeding 10^5 particles cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ at energies >10 MeV, establishing the scale of radiation hazards.^[53] Complementing flux measurements, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) carries the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN), which analyzes the composition of solar energetic particles by distinguishing protons, electrons, and helium ions across energies up to ~50 MeV for protons.^[54] EPHIN's low-background sensors enable detection of subtle compositional variations, such as helium-to-proton ratios, which help trace particle origins to specific solar flare or coronal mass ejection (CME) mechanisms.^[55] Telescopic observations from space further reveal acceleration signatures indirectly linked to SPEs. The Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) satellite images solar flares in hard X-rays (3-20 keV) and gamma rays (up to ~20 MeV), capturing bremsstrahlung and nuclear line emissions produced by accelerated electrons and ions.^[56] These spectra provide evidence of particle energies reaching tens of MeV during flares associated with impulsive SPEs, with RHESSI's rotating modulation collimators enabling high-resolution spectroscopy and imaging.^[57] Similarly, the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission's twin spacecraft offer multi-viewpoint imaging of the Sun and heliosphere, using instruments like the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) suite to track CMEs and shocks over wide longitudinal ranges.^[58] STEREO's Solar Electron and Proton Telescope (SEPT) directly measures SEP fluxes from multiple vantage points, revealing spatial variations in event propagation that single-point observations miss.^[59] Data from these missions feed into operational products, such as real-time alerts issued by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which monitor GOES proton data to declare solar radiation storms when integral fluxes exceed thresholds like 10 particles cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ (>10 pfu) for >10 MeV protons (S1 level) or 1000 particles cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ (>1000 pfu) for >10 MeV protons (S3 level); additionally, alerts are issued when >100 MeV proton flux exceeds 1 pfu.^[4] These alerts, disseminated via satellite broadcasts and web services, use integral flux metrics to categorize event severity and guide protective actions for spacecraft and astronauts.^[60] The European Space Agency's Solar Orbiter, launched in 2020, enhances space-based detection with its Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) suite, measuring electrons, protons, and ions from ~5 keV up to ~200 MeV/nucleon from a vantage point inside 1 AU, providing composition and directional information on SEPs as of 2025.^[61] A significant recent advancement comes from the Parker Solar Probe, launched in 2018, which has conducted close approaches to the Sun (as near as 6.9 solar radii) to measure suprathermal seed populations that precede full SPE acceleration.^[62] Its Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (ISOIS) suite detects electrons, protons, and ions from ~20 keV to ~200 MeV per nucleon near the corona, identifying seed particle enhancements linked to wave-particle interactions and microflares during solar minimum conditions in 2018-2021 and continuing through solar maximum.^[63] These in-situ measurements, unavailable from farther-out observatories, illuminate the initial stages of particle energization.^[64]

Terrestrial Impacts

Atmospheric Absorption Effects

Solar particle events (SPEs) produce polar cap absorption (PCA) when energetic protons, typically with energies exceeding 1 MeV, precipitate into Earth's polar atmosphere following solar flares or coronal mass ejections. These protons penetrate the atmosphere and deposit energy primarily in the D-region of the ionosphere, spanning altitudes of 50-90 km, where they collide with neutral atoms and molecules to generate secondary electrons and ions. This enhanced ionization significantly increases the electron density in the D-layer by factors of 10 to 100 times the normal levels, creating a dense plasma layer that strongly attenuates high-frequency (HF) radio signals in the 3-30 MHz range.^[65]^[66]^[67] The absorption mechanism relies on the interaction between free electrons and neutral particles in the lower ionosphere, where the product of electron density and collision frequency peaks, leading to non-deviative absorption of HF waves as they propagate through the region. PCA events typically onset within minutes to hours after the solar eruption and can persist for hours to several days, depending on the integrated proton flux above key energy thresholds (e.g., >10 MeV for prolonged effects), with recovery times scaling logarithmically with flux intensity. This results in severe degradation or complete blackout of HF communications over polar paths, impacting aviation, maritime, and scientific operations reliant on skywave propagation.^[65]^[68]^[66] PCA is predominantly visible in the polar caps and expanded auroral ovals at high geomagnetic latitudes (above ~60°), where the Earth's magnetic field funnels protons along field lines with minimal deflection. Geomagnetic cutoff rigidity further modulates accessibility: lower-energy protons (<10 MeV) are shielded from mid-latitudes by the magnetosphere, confining effects to regions with rigidities below 1 GV, while higher-energy particles can influence slightly lower latitudes during intense events. This latitudinal dependence enhances absorption in sub-auroral zones during geomagnetic disturbances, exacerbating disruptions.^[66]^[67]^[69] A notable example occurred during the 2003 Halloween solar storms, a series of intense SPEs from October 19 to November 4, which generated multiple PCA events causing widespread HF radio blackouts over polar regions. These disruptions lasted up to several hours per event, forcing rerouting of transpolar flights and incurring significant operational costs, with daily aviation impacts estimated in millions of euros due to communication failures and fuel inefficiencies. Such events highlight PCA's role in broader terrestrial radiation enhancements, though ground-level doses remain minimal compared to ionospheric effects.^[70]^[71]^[72]

Radiation Dose Enhancements

Ground-level enhancements (GLEs) represent rare instances during solar particle events where relativistic solar protons with energies exceeding 500 MeV penetrate Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere, producing secondary particles such as neutrons and muons that are detectable at the surface by global neutron monitor networks.^[44] These high-energy particles, accelerated near the Sun during major eruptive events, interact with atmospheric nuclei to generate the observable increase in secondary cosmic ray flux, distinguishing GLEs from more common solar energetic particle events confined to space or upper atmosphere.^[41] Since systematic observations began in 1942, approximately 77 GLEs have been recorded as of 2025, with the majority associated with powerful X-class solar flares and fast coronal mass ejections.^[44]^[73]^[74] For instance, GLE 72 on September 10, 2017, was triggered by an X8.2-class flare from active region AR12673, leading to a detectable enhancement across multiple neutron monitors worldwide.^[75] These events are sporadic, occurring roughly once per solar cycle on average, and their frequency correlates with the intensity of solar activity peaks. GLEs can dramatically elevate radiation dose rates at aviation altitudes, where the thinner atmosphere offers less shielding, with peaks reaching up to 100 times the galactic cosmic ray background in extreme cases.^[76] For strong events like GLE 5 in 1956 and GLE 69 in 2005, effective dose rates at typical commercial flight levels (around 10-12 km) have been estimated at 0.3-2.5 mSv per hour, posing potential risks to aircrews and passengers on polar routes.^[34] Overall, event-integrated doses during such enhancements may add several mSv to a single flight, comparable to months of routine exposure.^[34] Many GLEs unfold against a backdrop of Forbush decreases, where preceding coronal mass ejections expel galactic cosmic rays from the inner heliosphere via enhanced interplanetary magnetic fields, temporarily reducing the baseline cosmic ray flux before the solar particle influx causes the enhancement.^[77] This contrast highlights the dynamic interplay between solar-driven particle modulations during large eruptive events.^[78]

Extreme Historical Events

Miyake events represent rare and exceptionally intense solar particle events inferred from sharp spikes in cosmogenic isotopes preserved in natural archives such as tree rings and ice cores. These spikes, primarily in carbon-14 (^{14}C) levels in annual tree rings and beryllium-10 (^{10}Be) in polar ice cores, indicate extreme fluxes of solar energetic particles that far exceed modern observations, with fluences estimated to be more than 10 times greater than those of contemporary ground-level enhancements (GLEs). Such events are thought to arise from super-flares or coronal mass ejections producing high-energy protons that penetrate Earth's atmosphere, enhancing cosmogenic isotope production globally.^[79]^[80]^[81] The most prominent historical Miyake events include those dated to 774–775 AD and 993–994 AD, both identified through synchronized ^{14}C measurements in tree rings from multiple global sites, including Japanese cedars and European oaks. The 774–775 AD event produced the largest recorded ^{14}C excursion, with a rapid ~12–15‰ increase, signaling a proton fluence at energies above 10 GeV that was at least five to ten times stronger than any instrumentally observed solar event. Similarly, the 993–994 AD event showed a comparable but slightly smaller spike, confirmed by sub-annual resolution in Polish oak rings and corroborated by ^{10}Be in Greenland ice cores, also involving particles with energies exceeding 10 GeV. These events share spectral characteristics with modern GLEs but on a vastly amplified scale.^[79]^[82]^[83] A more recent discovery highlights a Miyake event around 660 BCE, precisely dated to 664–663 BCE through high-resolution ^{14}C analysis in tree rings and multi-radionuclide evidence from Greenland ice cores, including elevated ^{10}Be, ^{36}Cl, and ^{14}C levels. This event, one of at least seven well-documented Miyake occurrences over the past 14,500 years, demonstrated a fluence comparable to the 774–775 AD event, with post-2020 studies refining its timing and confirming its solar origin via isotopic ratios inconsistent with galactic cosmic rays.^[84]^[85] In May 2025, researchers identified an even more extreme Miyake event dated to 12350 BCE, featuring the largest known radiocarbon spike and estimated to be approximately 500 times more intense than any modern solar storm, based on tree-ring data from the last Ice Age.^[86]^[87] The atmospheric implications of these extreme events include significant ozone depletion in the stratosphere due to enhanced production of nitrogen oxides from particle ionization, potentially leading to global cooling through altered radiative forcing. Modeling of the 774–775 AD event suggests ozone losses of up to 5–20% in polar regions, extending to lower latitudes and persisting for months, which could have induced short-term climatic perturbations. Estimated radiation doses from such events exceed 1 Sv at the equator and reach 3–6 Sv at higher latitudes, far surpassing modern GLE exposures and posing severe risks if recurrent.^[88]^[89]^[90]

Hazards and Risks

Biological Effects on Humans

Solar particle events (SPEs) primarily expose humans to high-energy protons, which can penetrate tissues and cause ionizing radiation damage. This radiation induces direct and indirect DNA strand breaks through interactions with cellular water molecules, leading to potential mutagenesis and cell death. Acute biological effects include acute radiation syndrome (ARS) at doses exceeding 0.7 Gy, manifesting as nausea, vomiting, and hematopoietic suppression, while higher exposures risk skin injury and immune dysregulation.^[91]^[2] Long-term risks encompass increased incidence of cataracts due to lens opacification from proton-induced oxidative stress and elevated cancer probabilities, particularly for radiosensitive tissues like bone marrow and colon, with relative biological effectiveness (RBE) values for protons ranging from 1.1 to 2.0 compared to gamma rays.^[92]^[93] Equivalent doses are measured in sieverts (Sv), accounting for radiation quality factors to reflect biological impact.^[94] In space environments, astronauts face significant risks during major SPEs, where unshielded or lightly shielded exposures can deliver 0.1–1 Sv to critical organs over hours to days, far surpassing typical galactic cosmic ray backgrounds of 0.3–0.6 mSv per month. For instance, modeling of historical events like the February 1956 SPE estimates blood-forming organ doses up to 0.15 Sv in a spacecraft configuration without storm sheltering. During the Apollo 14 mission in 1971, a minor SPE contributed to the crew's total skin dose of 11.4 mGy, the highest among Apollo missions, highlighting how even sub-major events add to cumulative exposure.^[95]^[96] High-altitude aviation, particularly polar routes during proton corona absorption (PCA) events associated with SPEs, elevates crew doses to 5–20 µSv per hour at 12 km altitude, compared to baseline cosmic ray rates of 3–9 µSv/h, potentially accumulating 0.03 mSv over a 24-hour event for transpolar flights.^[97]^[98] NASA establishes astronaut exposure limits at 500 mSv per year for blood-forming organs in operational planning, aligned with terrestrial radiation worker standards, to prevent deterministic effects, though career limits are risk-based at 600 mSv effective dose (as of 2025) to cap cancer mortality risk at 3%. A single large SPE can exceed the annual threshold in minutes, with peak dose rates reaching hundreds of mGy per hour behind minimal shielding, necessitating immediate sheltering to avoid ARS onset.^[99]^[100]^[101]

Technological Disruptions

Solar particle events (SPEs) pose significant risks to spacecraft electronics and power systems primarily through high-energy protons that penetrate shielding and interact with materials. These particles can cause single-event upsets (SEUs), which are transient errors in digital circuits leading to bit flips in memory or erroneous commands, potentially requiring reboots or data loss.^[102] For instance, during the intense SPEs of the 2003 Halloween solar storms, NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter suffered the permanent failure of its Martian Radiation Environment Experiment instrument due to radiation damage from solar protons.^[103] Additionally, SPEs degrade solar arrays by displacing atoms in photovoltaic cells, reducing power output over time; the 1989 solar proton events caused measurable degradation in the solar array current of geostationary satellites like GOES-5, GOES-6, and GOES-7.^[104] SPE-induced polar cap absorption (PCA) events enhance ionization in the Earth's high-latitude ionosphere, leading to scintillation that disrupts global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals and communications. Scintillation causes rapid fluctuations in signal amplitude and phase, resulting in positioning errors of several meters for GPS users, particularly in polar regions or during high solar activity.^[105] For example, the 2003 Halloween storms triggered widespread GPS disruptions affecting airline navigation over the North Pole and surveying operations.^[103] High-frequency radio communications also suffer blackouts due to increased absorption in the D-layer of the ionosphere during PCAs.^[106] While SPEs primarily affect space-based assets, they can indirectly influence ground infrastructure through minor contributions to geomagnetic disturbances that induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in power grids, though these effects are far less severe than those from coronal mass ejections (CMEs). GICs from SPE-associated storms can strain transformers by causing partial saturation and harmonic distortions, potentially leading to overheating, but historical events show limited ground-level impacts compared to full geomagnetic storms.^[107] The economic consequences of SPE-induced satellite anomalies are substantial, with major events costing the satellite industry hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in lost operations, repairs, and replacements. A moderate SPE scenario is estimated to incur $200 million to $2 billion in damages to U.S. satellites alone, including downtime for communications and navigation services.^[108] During the 2003 storms, over half of Earth-orbiting satellites experienced anomalies, contributing to widespread service interruptions valued in the tens of millions.^[103]

Forecasting and Mitigation

Prediction Techniques

Prediction techniques for solar particle events (SPEs), also known as solar energetic particle (SEP) events, encompass empirical, physics-based, and machine learning methods that analyze solar observations to issue warnings. These approaches leverage data from satellites like GOES for X-ray emissions, coronagraphs for coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) for solar imagery, focusing on precursors such as flares and shocks that accelerate particles.^[109] Empirical models provide short-term forecasts by correlating observable solar phenomena with SEP characteristics. The PROTONS tool, operational at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, uses GOES soft X-ray (SXR) flux, solar wind parameters, and metric radio type II/IV bursts to predict SEP onset, peak intensity, and fluence for energies above 10 MeV, offering 1-3 hour warnings after flare detection.^[109] This model inputs peak and time-integrated SXR flux, flare location, and radio emission presence to estimate event probabilities and fluxes, achieving a probability of detection (POD) of 0.57 and a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.48 at thresholds of 20-30%, though it suffers from high false alarm rates (0.55).^[110] Similar empirical tools, like UMASEP, extend this by incorporating real-time proton flux monitoring for alerts on events above 10-500 MeV, with PODs exceeding 80% but limitations in detecting behind-limb events.^[109] Physics-based models simulate heliospheric propagation to forecast SEP acceleration from CME-driven shocks. The WSA-ENLIL model, a large-scale numerical tool used by NOAA, integrates Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal modeling with the ENLIL magnetohydrodynamic solver to propagate CMEs from the corona (inner boundary at 21.5 solar radii) through the inner heliosphere up to 5.5 AU.^[111] Coronagraph inputs—such as CME speed, width, and direction from instruments like SOHO/LASCO—drive simulations of shock evolution, particle injection at shock noses, and transport along magnetic field lines, yielding SEP flux time profiles (1-100 MeV) and distinguishing prompt from delayed components.^[111] Validated against multipoint observations (e.g., STEREO and ACE during 2010-2012 events), it supports 1-4 day advance warnings but is constrained by assumptions of scatter-free transport and omission of coronal shock details.^[111] Machine learning advances since 2020 enhance flare prediction as a proxy for SEPs, processing SDO data for earlier detection, with further developments through 2025 including the SOlar wind with FIeld lines and Energetic particles (SOFIE) ensemble model for improved SEP occurrence and flux predictions during operational tests. Transformer-based models like SolarFlareNet analyze time series of SHARP active region parameters from SDO/HMI magnetograms (12-minute cadence, 2010-2022 dataset) to forecast flare probabilities, achieving accuracies of 71% for ≥M5.0 events over 72 hours and outperforming baselines in true skill scores (TSS) for M- and C-class flares. These models identify complex magnetic structures prone to eruptions, linking high-confidence M5+ predictions (~70% accuracy in similar post-2020 studies) to likely SEP production, though they require flare association for full SEP context. Additional AI approaches, such as those forecasting solar wind speeds up to four days in advance as of September 2025, support extended space weather predictions.^[109]^[112]^[113] Current techniques are limited by short lead times of minutes to hours for most operational warnings, stemming from rapid particle travel speeds (near light speed for relativistic protons) and uncertainties in shock acceleration. Reliable forecasts beyond 24 hours remain elusive, with three-day probabilistic products (e.g., NOAA's ≥10 pfu at >10 MeV) often overpredicting due to variable CME-shock interactions, though calibration improves reliability by ~2.5% in advanced ensembles.

Protective Strategies

Protective strategies for solar particle events (SPEs) focus on engineering solutions, operational procedures, and international coordination to minimize radiation exposure to humans and disruptions to technology. These measures leverage shielding materials, real-time monitoring, and predefined response protocols to ensure safety during high-energy proton fluxes from the Sun. By integrating passive barriers, adaptive operations, and alert systems, such strategies reduce risks in diverse environments from low-Earth orbit to interplanetary travel. In space habitats, storm shelters equipped with polyethylene shielding provide effective protection against SPEs by attenuating proton fluxes and reducing secondary radiation. Polyethylene, a hydrogen-rich polymer, is integrated into habitat walls or dedicated shelters to achieve at least a 50% reduction in effective dose for a 95th percentile SPE event, as demonstrated in NASA's RadWorks project for crew quarters on long-duration missions.^[114] This shielding thickness, typically 2-5 g/cm², minimizes mass penalties while adhering to the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle, with onboard implementation on the International Space Station confirming dose rate reductions of up to 32% in high-latitude environments simulating deep-space conditions.^[115] Complementary water walls, utilizing stored potable or waste water as structural elements, further enhance shielding; for instance, 2.7 inches of water thickness yields a 50% dose reduction in reconfigurable shelters, deployable in under 30 minutes during alerts.^[116] These designs prioritize centralized crew assembly to optimize protection without excessive habitat modifications. For aviation, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) implements rerouting protocols for polar flights to avoid high-radiation regions during SPE alerts, where geomagnetic shielding is minimal and high-frequency communications may fail. Region 1 polar latitudes experience the highest dose rates, prompting flight planners to shift routes southward or delay departures, as seen in operational responses to events like the 2005 SPE that affected Delta Airlines transpolar operations.^[117] Crews rely on dose monitoring tools, such as the FAA's CARI-6 calculator for real-time exposure estimates, supplemented by personal dosimeters worn by flight attendants and pilots to track cumulative radiation from galactic cosmic rays and SPEs, ensuring compliance with annual limits of 20 mSv for radiation workers.^[118] These badges, often thermoluminescent or electronic, provide verifiable records during enhanced exposure periods, with studies estimating additional doses up to 0.5 mSv per event for pregnant crew members.^[119] Satellite designs incorporate radiation-hardened electronics to withstand single-event effects from SPE protons, which can induce bit flips or latch-ups in standard chips. These components, fabricated with reinforced silicon-on-insulator processes, tolerate total ionizing doses exceeding 100 krad and maintain functionality amid solar energetic particle fluxes, as required for missions in geostationary or deep-space orbits.^[120] To mitigate acute risks, satellites feature autonomous safe modes that activate upon detecting elevated radiation levels or receiving ground commands based on GOES satellite alerts, shutting down non-essential systems to prevent permanent damage; for example, during the May 2024 and November 2025 solar flares, multiple satellites entered safe mode to limit exposure from associated particle events.^[121]^[122] This autonomy, often triggered by onboard flux monitors correlated with NOAA's proton event warnings, ensures rapid response within minutes of flare onset.^[123] International protocols guide SPE mitigation for deep-space missions, emphasizing standardized shelter requirements and alert dissemination. The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) endorses planetary protection policies that incorporate radiation safeguards, recommending SPE storm shelters capable of limiting blood-forming organ doses to 250 mGy-equivalent during extreme events like the 1972 flare, with 30-minute assembly times to facilitate crew evacuation.^[124] NASA's deep-space guidelines build on these, integrating COSPAR principles for missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Real-time warnings from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center provide critical lead times, issuing proton event alerts when fluxes exceed 10 particles/cm²/s/sr above 10 MeV at geostationary orbit, enabling coordinated global responses across agencies.^[125] These protocols prioritize predictive accuracy to activate protections preemptively, ensuring mission continuity.

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Space Weather | Federal Aviation Administration
Jan 21, 2025 · Solar radiation storms, in particular, can render High Frequency (HF) communications inoperable during polar flights.Space Weather · Navigation · Radiation
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Solar Radiation Alert Regions - Federal Aviation Administration
Feb 13, 2016 · Region 1 is the polar-latitude region where the magnetic field provides little to no protection from solar cosmic radiation. The highest dose ...
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[PDF] Flight Attendant Radiation Dose from Solar Particle Events
Discussion: During solar particle events, a pregnant flight attendant could potentially exceed the equivalent dose limit to the conceptus of 0.5 mSv in a month ...
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ESA - Radiation: satellites' unseen enemy - European Space Agency
High-energy particles traversing EEE components generate a transient electric charge that can have various consequences: software upsets, memory bit flips, ...
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Solar flares in May 2024 revealed Earth's vulnerability to space ...
Feb 12, 2025 · During major storms, many satellites go into safe mode, shutting down nonessential systems, which may limit communications with the ground.
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Safeguarding Satellites: How NOAA Monitors Space Weather to ...
Feb 19, 2025 · GOES Satellites: The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) continuously monitor the sun's activity, providing real-time ...
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Solar particle event storm shelter requirements for missions beyond ...
We propose a design-standard SPE to be used as the basis for evaluating the adequacy of proposed radiation shelters for cislunar missions beyond LEO.Missing: walls | Show results with:walls
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Alerts, Watches and Warnings - Space Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30 Serial Number: 261 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 09 1821 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level ...Missing: particle | Show results with:particle