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Accuracy and precision

In , accuracy refers to the closeness of between a measured and a true of the measurand, serving as a qualitative indicator of quality that encompasses both systematic and random components. Precision, in contrast, describes the closeness of between independent measured s obtained by repeated s on the same or similar objects under specified conditions, primarily reflecting the influence of random errors. These concepts are distinct yet complementary: a can be precise but inaccurate if affected by , or accurate but imprecise due to high variability, and both are essential for assessing the reliability of results in scientific, industrial, and statistical applications. The International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM) further refines these terms, defining trueness as a component of accuracy that measures the closeness between the of an infinite series of replicate measurements and a reference value, inversely related to systematic error. is quantified through statistical measures such as standard deviation or variance, with subtypes including repeatability (under identical conditions), intermediate precision (with some variation), and (across different laboratories or operators). Standards like ISO 5725 provide quantitative methods to evaluate and report these attributes for measurement procedures, ensuring comparability across methods that yield results on a continuous scale. In practice, achieving high accuracy and precision is critical for fields ranging from to calibration, where NIST guidelines emphasize avoiding interchangeable use of the terms and instead expressing numerically via uncertainty estimates. For instance, in , imprecise measurements may lead to inconsistent products despite overall accuracy, while biased instruments can produce systematically erroneous data. These principles underpin global metrological frameworks, promoting standardized evaluation to minimize errors and enhance based on measurement data.

Core Definitions

Everyday and Technical Distinctions

In everyday language, accuracy and precision are frequently used synonymously to describe something as correct or exact, such as a "precise" estimate or an "accurate" in casual . However, in and scientific contexts, these terms denote distinct qualities of measurements or results, with accuracy focusing on correctness relative to a and precision emphasizing . This distinction is crucial for avoiding confusion in fields like , and , where conflating the two can lead to flawed interpretations of . Accuracy refers to how close a measured or estimated is to the true or accepted , reflecting the absence of systematic or . For example, consider a dartboard analogy: if multiple land near the bullseye but are scattered around it, the throws demonstrate high accuracy because they are close to the , even if the grouping is loose. In contrast, describes the or of measurements under the same conditions, indicating low random or variability. Using the same dartboard, if cluster tightly together but far from the bullseye, the throws show high due to their uniformity, yet low accuracy because they miss the intended mark. These intuitive examples, drawn from archery-like targeting, illustrate how both qualities are desirable but independent—a system can excel in one without the other./CHEM_142%3A_Text_(Brzezinski)/01%3A_Introduction/1.05%3A_Accuracy_and_Precision) The terms accuracy and precision trace their origins to 19th-century practices in gunnery and , where accuracy denoted hitting the intended and precision referred to the tightness of groupings, as seen in discussions of performance and range estimation. By the , these concepts evolved into formalized standards in and scientific measurement, aligning with advances in that emphasized both qualities for reliable empirical work. In colloquial usage, this historical nuance is often overlooked, leading to persistent misconceptions. One common error is equating high precision with overall reliability or accuracy, ignoring that precise measurements can still be systematically biased and thus consistently incorrect—for instance, a that always reads 5 grams too high yields precise but inaccurate weights. These distinctions lay the groundwork for statistical quantifications explored in more formal analyses.

Formal Statistical Definitions

In statistical measurement theory, accuracy is formally characterized through the concepts of trueness and , as outlined in the ISO 5725 standard, which provides a for evaluating methods and results. Trueness, often synonymous with the absence of , refers to the closeness of agreement between the of a large series of and the , capturing the systematic deviation from the . This is mathematically expressed as the , defined as \bias = E[X] - \mu, where X represents the for the outcome and \mu is the ; a of zero indicates perfect trueness. Precision, in contrast, quantifies the of by assessing the among repeated independent results under specified conditions, independent of proximity to the . It is formally defined as the of the variance of the , \precision = \frac{1}{\Var(X)}, where lower variance corresponds to higher , reflecting reduced random variability. The relationship between accuracy, precision, and total error underscores their complementary roles: total measurement error decomposes into systematic error (, addressed by trueness) and random error (addressed by ), such that total error = + random error, with the latter's magnitude inversely related to via variance. In ISO , "closeness of agreement" encompasses both trueness and to describe overall accuracy, distinguishing it from isolated assessments of either component.

Measurement and Quantification

Precision Metrics and Calculations

Precision in measurements is quantified through metrics that capture the degree of variability or scatter in repeated observations, often expressed as the of variance to reflect . A fundamental measure is the standard deviation, which assesses the dispersion of data points around the in a from repeated measurements. For a set of n measurements x_i with sample \mu, the population standard deviation \sigma is calculated as \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \mu)^2}{n}}, while the sample standard deviation s uses n-1 in the denominator for unbiased estimation. This metric is widely applied in experimental contexts; for instance, in laboratory assays where multiple readings of a voltmeter yield values like 10.2 V, 10.1 V, and 10.3 V, the standard deviation quantifies the instrument's precision under consistent conditions, typically aiming for values below 1% of the mean for high-precision tools. To enable comparisons across datasets with differing scales or units, the (CV) normalizes the standard deviation relative to the mean, expressed as a : CV = \left( \frac{\sigma}{\mu} \right) \times 100\%. This relative measure is particularly useful in fields like and , where absolute variability might vary with concentration levels; for example, in , a CV under 2% indicates good for analyte detection across sample dilutions. The CV highlights proportional consistency, making it ideal for evaluating method reliability when means differ significantly, such as comparing pipetting in microliter versus milliliter volumes. Standardized frameworks like ISO 5725 provide rigorous definitions and calculations for and as components of . , denoted as the standard deviation under the same conditions (within-laboratory variance, s_r), measures short-term variability from repeated trials by the same operator using the same equipment. extends this to between-laboratory variance (s_R), incorporating inter-lab differences via the standard deviation of laboratory means. These are estimated from inter-laboratory experiments involving multiple replicates, with limits calculated as $2.8 \times s_r for repeatability limit and $2.8 \times s_R for reproducibility limit at 95% confidence, assuming . ISO 5725 outlines protocols for such designs, ensuring precision estimates are robust for method validation in and . Confidence intervals for precision metrics, particularly variance estimates, rely on the to account for sampling uncertainty. For a sample variance s^2 from n normally distributed observations, the (1 - \alpha) \times 100\% for the population variance \sigma^2 is given by \left[ \frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_{\alpha/2, n-1}}, \frac{(n-1)s^2}{\chi^2_{1 - \alpha/2, n-1}} \right], where \chi^2 denotes the critical values from the with n-1 . This approach is essential for inferring true from finite data, such as in where wide intervals signal insufficient replicates; for example, with 10 measurements and s = 0.5, the interval might span approximately 0.12 to 0.83, guiding decisions on experimental scale-up. Such intervals extend to standard deviation by taking square roots, though requires careful interpretation.

Accuracy Metrics and Calculations

Accuracy in contexts is quantified through metrics that assess the systematic deviation of observed values from true or values, often referred to as or trueness. These metrics provide a way to evaluate how closely a measurement method aligns with the accepted truth, distinct from which focuses on . Common approaches include error-based measures like the and root mean square error, as well as standardized procedures such as those outlined in ISO 5725 for estimating trueness via recovery experiments. Additionally, total error can be decomposed into components related to accuracy () and (variance), offering deeper insight into performance. The () measures the between measured values and the true value, providing a straightforward of accuracy by ignoring the direction of errors. It is defined as \text{MAE} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} |x_i - \mu| where x_i represents individual , \mu is the true or reference value, and n is the number of . This metric is particularly useful in validation for its interpretability in the original units of the data, making it suitable for applications where outliers should not disproportionately influence the of overall deviation. MAE emphasizes the typical magnitude of errors, aiding in the evaluation of systematic offsets in or analytical procedures. The error (RMSE) extends this by accounting for both the and the spread of errors, penalizing larger deviations more heavily due to the squaring operation. It is computed as \text{RMSE} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (x_i - \mu)^2} where the terms are as defined for . By combining and variance effects, RMSE offers a comprehensive view of accuracy that reflects the standard deviation of the errors, which is valuable in and scientific for comparing method performance against benchmarks. This metric is sensitive to outliers, thus highlighting potential systematic issues in measurement processes. In and related fields, the ISO 5725 series provides standardized protocols for estimating accuracy, particularly trueness, through recovery experiments where a known amount of is added (spiked) to a sample. Trueness is assessed via the recovery rate, calculated as \text{Recovery rate} = \left( \frac{\text{measured concentration}}{\text{added concentration}} \right) \times 100\% assuming negligible background levels; otherwise, the net measured increase is used in the numerator. This approach, aligned with ISO 5725-4's basic methods for determining trueness using reference materials or spiked samples, allows laboratories to quantify proportional or constant biases in measurement methods. Recovery rates close to 100% indicate high trueness, with acceptance criteria often set between 90-110% depending on the and concentration range. Total measurement error can be decomposed to separate accuracy-related (bias) and precision-related (variance) components, using the mean squared error (MSE) as \text{MSE} = \text{bias}^2 + \text{variance} where bias is the expected deviation from the , \text{bias} = E[\hat{\mu}] - \mu, and variance captures the variability around the estimate, \text{Var}(\hat{\mu}), with \hat{\mu} as the estimated mean. This decomposition, fundamental in statistical error analysis, enables targeted improvements: reducing bias enhances accuracy, while minimizing variance improves as discussed in prior sections on variability. It is widely applied in experimental design to optimize reliability.

Applications in Statistics and Engineering

In Experimental Design and Error Analysis

In experimental design, accuracy and precision play pivotal roles in determining the reliability of results, with precision often enhanced through careful sample size planning via . Power analysis calculates the minimum sample size required to detect a meaningful effect with sufficient statistical power, thereby reducing the variability in estimates and improving precision. The formula for sample size n per group in a two-sample t-test scenario, assuming equal group sizes and a desired power $1 - \beta, is given by n = 2 \frac{(Z_{\alpha/2} + Z_{\beta})^2 \sigma^2}{\delta^2}, where Z_{\alpha/2} is the for the level, Z_{\beta} corresponds to the desired power, \sigma is the standard deviation, and \delta is the minimum detectable . This approach balances resources by ensuring that larger sample sizes yield narrower intervals, thus higher precision, while avoiding underpowered studies that may fail to detect true effects. Error propagation is essential in analyzing how uncertainties in primary measurements affect the accuracy of derived quantities, particularly in scientific experiments where multiple variables are combined. For a function f(x, y) of independent variables x and y with variances \sigma_x^2 and \sigma_y^2, the propagated variance \sigma_f^2 is approximated using partial derivatives as \sigma_f^2 \approx \left( \frac{\partial f}{\partial x} \right)^2 \sigma_x^2 + \left( \frac{\partial f}{\partial y} \right)^2 \sigma_y^2, assuming small errors and no covariance; this method quantifies how measurement imprecision leads to reduced accuracy in computed results. In practice, this formula helps identify dominant sources of error, guiding researchers to prioritize more precise measurements of sensitive variables to maintain overall accuracy. A representative in physics illustrates : calculating velocity v = d / t from measured d and time t, with uncertainties \Delta d and \Delta t. The relative error in is \frac{\Delta v}{v} \approx \sqrt{ \left( \frac{\Delta d}{d} \right)^2 + \left( \frac{\Delta t}{t} \right)^2 }, derived from the general rule; for instance, if d = 100 m with \Delta d = 1 m and t = 10 s with \Delta t = 0.1 s, then v \approx 10 m/s with \Delta v \approx 0.14 m/s, showing how time disproportionately impacts accuracy in high-speed measurements. This analysis is crucial in experiments like or labs, where propagated errors can validate or refute theoretical models. To improve accuracy in controlled trials, is a key technique that minimizes systematic by randomly assigning subjects to or groups, ensuring balanced distribution of factors. This method reduces and enhances the validity of causal inferences, as unseen covariates are equally likely in each group, thereby aligning observed effects more closely with true population parameters. For example, in clinical or settings, proper protocols, such as simple or block randomization, are standard to achieve unbiased accuracy without altering inherent .

In Calibration and Instrumentation

In calibration, the process involves adjusting an to minimize systematic by comparing its output to known values, thereby establishing a traceable link to international standards. This is achieved using Standard Reference Materials (SRMs) provided by organizations like the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which offer certified values with documented uncertainties to ensure metrological traceability to the (SI). The calibration typically proceeds by applying the SRM to the instrument, recording indications, and applying corrections to reduce deviations from the true value, often through or polynomial fitting to account for non-linearities. For instance, in chemical or physical measurements, matrix-matched SRMs are used to avoid from sample composition mismatches, ensuring commutability and accuracy across procedures. Precision in instrumentation refers to the reproducibility of measurements under unchanged conditions, limited by factors such as —the smallest detectable change in the input signal—and the , which represents the baseline electronic or environmental interference. is determined by the instrument's bits or mechanical graduations, while the sets the fundamental limit on distinguishing signals from fluctuations. These are quantified by the (SNR), defined as SNR = / , where is the signal and is the deviation of the , providing a measure of how well the instrument can resolve fine details amid variability. High SNR values, often targeted above 100 in precision setups, enable reliable detection, as lower ratios degrade ; for example, in spectroscopic instruments, SNR improvements via averaging or filtering can extend effective without hardware changes. Accuracy specifications in instrument datasheets quantify the closeness of measurements to true values, typically expressed as ± a percentage of full-scale range or reading, incorporating both bias and precision limits under controlled conditions. For voltmeters, a common specification is ±0.5% of full-scale plus a fixed digit count, meaning a 100 V range instrument might have an error of ±0.5 V at full scale, calibrated against NIST-traceable voltage standards to ensure compliance. Similarly, for weighing scales, accuracy is often ±1% of applied load or expressed in verification scale intervals (e), such as ±0.5 e for Class III devices used in commercial transactions, where e is the smallest unit displayed (e.g., 0.01 lb), verified through NIST Handbook 44 tolerances to maintain legal metrology. These specs guide users in selecting instruments for applications requiring specific error bounds, with periodic recalibration to sustain performance. The historical development of accuracy and precision in calibration traces back to the 18th-century establishment of the in , a bar defined as one ten-millionth of the Earth's quadrant, serving as the first reproducible standard alongside the des Archives based on water's . This evolved through the 1875 , which founded the International Bureau of Weights and Measures (BIPM) to custodianship prototypes, such as the 1889 -iridium metre bar, enabling global via periodic verifications. Modern NIST chains, redefined in 1960 with the krypton-86 wavelength for the and further refined in 1983 to the (c = 299,792,458 m/s), integrate atomic and laser-based methods for uncertainties below 10^{-9}, linking instruments through unbroken calibration hierarchies to SI units for unprecedented reliability.

Applications in Machine Learning

Binary Classification Metrics

In binary classification tasks, the confusion matrix provides the essential framework for evaluating model by summarizing outcomes relative to true labels. It consists of four components: true positives (TP), representing instances where the model correctly identifies the positive ; true negatives (TN), where the negative is correctly identified; false positives (FP), where negative instances are erroneously classified as positive; and false negatives (FN), where positive instances are missed and classified as negative. These elements form the basis for deriving key metrics, enabling a detailed of how well the classifier distinguishes between the two classes. Accuracy quantifies the overall correctness of predictions as the proportion of true results (both TP and TN) out of all predictions: \text{Accuracy} = \frac{TP + TN}{TP + TN + [FP](/page/The_FP) + FN} While straightforward, this metric has significant limitations in imbalanced datasets, where the of one class (often the negative) can lead to high accuracy scores that mask poor detection of the minority (positive) class, thus providing a deceptive view of performance. evaluates the quality of positive predictions by measuring the fraction of predicted positives that are actually positive: \text{Precision} = \frac{TP}{TP + FP} This metric emphasizes the reliability of affirmative classifications, which is crucial in scenarios where false positives carry high costs, such as medical diagnostics. Complementing precision, (or ) captures the model's ability to find all actual positives: \text{Recall} = \frac{TP}{TP + FN} In imbalanced settings, often trade off against each other, prompting the use of the precision-recall curve, which visualizes precision as a of recall across varying decision thresholds to assess performance robustness. To reconcile these trade-offs, the F1-score computes the of and , assigning equal weight to both and thus favoring balanced performance: F1\text{-score} = 2 \times \frac{\text{[Precision](/page/Precision)} \times \text{[Recall](/page/The_Recall)}}{\text{[Precision](/page/Precision)} + \text{[Recall](/page/The_Recall)}} This metric proves especially effective for imbalanced datasets, as it diminishes when either or is low, offering a single scalar superior to accuracy in such contexts.

Multiclass and Metrics

In , where instances are assigned to one of more than two mutually exclusive classes, evaluation metrics extend binary approaches by leveraging strategies such as one-vs-all (also known as one-vs-rest) or one-vs-one to decompose the problem into multiple binary decisions. In the one-vs-all method, a separate classifier is trained for each against all others, and the class with the highest confidence score is selected as the prediction; this approach is particularly effective for support vector machines and classifiers, as it maintains computational efficiency while handling multiclass scenarios robustly. The one-vs-one strategy, conversely, trains a classifier for every pair of classes and uses to determine the final label, which can be advantageous when class separability varies significantly across pairs. A fundamental in multiclass settings is overall accuracy, defined as the proportion of instances correctly classified out of the total, calculated as the number of correct predictions divided by the total number of instances. This provides a straightforward measure of but can be misleading in the presence of imbalance, as it treats all errors equally regardless of . To address per- , is often aggregated using macro-averaging or micro-averaging. Macro-averaged computes the unweighted of scores across all , given by \frac{1}{C} \sum_{c=1}^{C} \frac{TP_c}{TP_c + FP_c}, where C is the number of , TP_c is the true positives for c, and FP_c is the false positives for c; this treats each equally, making it suitable for balanced datasets or when minority deserve equal emphasis. Micro-averaged , in contrast, aggregates contributions globally by summing true positives and false positives across all before computing as \frac{\sum TP_c}{\sum TP_c + \sum FP_c}, which weights by their support and is preferable for imbalanced datasets where overall error rates matter more than per- equity. These averaging methods build on the binary by extending true positive and false positive counts to a multiclass . In , where instances can belong to multiple classes simultaneously, metrics must account for partial correctness across label sets. Hamming loss serves as a key measure here, quantifying the fraction of labels that are incorrectly predicted, averaged over all instances and labels; it is formally defined as \frac{1}{N L} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \sum_{j=1}^{L} \mathbb{I}(y_{i,j} \neq \hat{y}_{i,j}), where N is the number of instances, L is the number of labels, y_{i,j} is the true label for instance i and label j, \hat{y}_{i,j} is the predicted label, and \mathbb{I} is the (1 if true, 0 otherwise). This loss ranges from 0 (perfect prediction) to 1 (all labels wrong) and is particularly useful for evaluating the average per-label error rate, though it does not penalize predictions that miss entire subsets of correct labels. A prominent challenge in is label imbalance, where some classes have far fewer instances than others, leading to biased models that prioritize majority classes and degrade performance on minorities. This issue is exacerbated in datasets like , a for image recognition with 10 classes of 32x32 color images, where artificially induced imbalances (e.g., reducing minority class samples to 1-10% of majority) can significantly degrade model performance, particularly for minority classes. Such imbalances highlight the need for techniques like class weighting or resampling to ensure robust metric evaluation across diverse class distributions.

Applications in Specialized Domains

Psychometrics and Psychophysics

In psychometrics, the field concerned with the theory and technique of psychological measurement, reliability is conceptualized as the precision of a measure, reflecting its consistency and stability across repeated administrations or equivalent forms. For instance, test-retest reliability quantifies this precision through the Pearson correlation coefficient between scores obtained at two time points, calculated as r = \frac{\text{Cov}(X,Y)}{\sigma_X \sigma_Y}, where Cov(X,Y) is the covariance between the two score sets, and \sigma_X and \sigma_Y are their standard deviations; values of r \geq 0.80 are typically deemed indicative of high precision. In contrast, validity represents the accuracy of the measure, ensuring that it captures the intended psychological construct or trait rather than extraneous factors, such as through criterion validity where scores correlate appropriately with external benchmarks of the trait. This distinction underscores how psychometric tools, like personality inventories, must balance repeatable precision with truthful alignment to underlying human attributes, accounting for individual variability in responses. Psychophysics, the scientific study of the relationship between physical stimuli and sensory perceptions, employs concepts of accuracy and precision to quantify human sensory thresholds and discrimination abilities. A core metric of precision here is the just noticeable difference (JND), defined as the smallest change in stimulus intensity detectable at least 50% of the time, which varies proportionally with the baseline stimulus according to Weber's law: \frac{\Delta I}{I} = k, where \Delta I is the JND, I is the original stimulus intensity, and k is a sensory-specific constant (e.g., approximately 0.02 for brightness). This law highlights the relative nature of perceptual precision, as larger stimuli require proportionally greater increments for detection, enabling precise mapping of sensory limits while accuracy is assessed by aligning these thresholds with objective physical scales. Methods like the method of constant stimuli or limits refine JND estimates, minimizing observer bias and enhancing the reliability of sensory measurements in experiments on vision, audition, or touch. Accuracy in psychophysical and psychometric scaling techniques, such as Thurstone and Likert scales, involves evaluating potential biases in self-report measures that could distort the representation of attitudes or traits. Thurstone scales, developed through equal-appearing interval methods, assign statements numerical values based on expert judgments to create an ordinal . Likert scales, extending this with ordinal response options (e.g., strongly agree to strongly disagree), assess accuracy through psychometric validation like indices (>0.80) and to detect floor/ceiling effects or wording biases that skew self-reports, such as social desirability inflating positive trait endorsements; test-retest correlations (>0.70) further confirm amid these challenges. These scales prioritize unbiased to accurately reflect psychological states, though self-report limitations necessitate cross-validation with behavioral data. A foundational contribution linking precision to sensory response functions is Gustav Fechner's 1860 monograph Elements of Psychophysics, which formalized as a quantitative by deriving a logarithmic from Weber's findings: magnitude g = k \log \left( \frac{b}{b_0} \right), where b is the stimulus intensity, b_0 is the , and k is a constant, implying that perceptual accumulates incrementally along a compressed rather than linearly. This model enhances measurement accuracy by accounting for the non-linear of physical inputs into subjective experiences, influencing subsequent work on and just noticeable increments in diverse sensory modalities.

Logic Simulation and Information Systems

In logic simulation, timing precision is modeled through gate delays, which approximate the propagation time for signals to traverse logic gates and interconnects. These delays are critical for predicting circuit performance, as inaccuracies can lead to timing violations or false positives in verification. Accurate modeling often involves simplified representations like nominal delays to balance computational efficiency and realism. Functional verification in logic design relies on formal methods such as to achieve high accuracy by systematically exploring the design's state space. Model checking algorithms exhaustively verify whether all reachable states satisfy properties, thereby confirming the absence of specified errors across the entire design behavior. This approach provides formal guarantees of correctness, contrasting with simulation-based methods that may miss corner cases. A primary for assessing accuracy is state coverage, calculated as the ratio of verified states to the total possible states in the representation of the design: \text{Coverage accuracy} = \frac{\text{verified states}}{\text{total states}} In , successful typically achieves full coverage of reachable states, ensuring comprehensive accuracy, while partial coverage in indicates progress toward . Precision in probabilistic logic simulation, particularly for analyzing process variations in timing, employs methods to generate random samples of parameter distributions. These simulations estimate delay distributions with statistical precision that improves with the number of iterations, as the decreases proportionally to the inverse of the sample size, enabling reliable predictions of circuit yield under . In information systems, data accuracy is defined as the extent to which data values conform to an authoritative source representing real-world phenomena, ensuring reliability in decision-making processes. The series standards formalize this by requiring data to be validated against reference sources, with accuracy measured through direct comparison to minimize discrepancies in exchanges. Precision in database query results is often compromised by floating-point representation errors, where binary storage of decimal numbers leads to rounding inaccuracies during arithmetic operations. For instance, computations involving floats or doubles in SQL databases can produce results like 0.1 + 0.2 equaling 0.30000000000000004 instead of 0.3, affecting the fidelity of numerical outputs in analytical queries. An illustrative example occurs in FPGA simulation tools using , where is preferred for hardware but introduces loss. In a Q4.4 format (4 bits, 4 fractional bits), multiplying 3.25 ( 0011.0100) by 2.0625 ( 0010.0001) produces an intermediate Q8.8 result of 6.703125 (00000110.10110100), but truncating to Q4.4 yields 6.6875 (0110.1011), discarding the least significant bits and incurring a 0.015625 ; overflow in larger values exacerbates this, potentially wrapping results negatively.