Fact-checked by Grok 2 weeks ago

Price stability

Price stability denotes an economic state in which the general level of prices for goods and services experiences minimal fluctuation over time, conventionally operationalized as an annual inflation rate of approximately 2 percent to account for measurement biases in price indices while preserving purchasing power predictability.^[1]^[2] This benchmark, adopted by major central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, contrasts with both hyperinflationary spirals that erode savings and deflationary contractions that discourage spending due to anticipated price declines.^[3]^[4] Empirical evidence from advanced economies indicates that sustained price stability correlates with enhanced long-term growth and employment, as it mitigates distortions from volatile relative prices and enables households and firms to allocate resources based on real economic signals rather than nominal hedges against inflation.^[5] For instance, the period following the Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s, when U.S. inflation fell from double digits to around 2 percent, ushered in the "Great Moderation" of reduced output volatility and steady expansion until the mid-2000s.^[6] Low inflation environments also reduce the tax distortions embedded in nominal interest rates and lessen the menu costs of frequent price adjustments for businesses.^[7] Central banks pursue price stability primarily through monetary policy tools like interest rate adjustments and quantitative operations, often embedding it as a core mandate alongside employment objectives, though debates persist over its precedence.^[8] Proponents argue it fosters financial stability by curbing excessive credit expansion fueled by low real rates under higher inflation tolerance, yet critics contend that strict 2 percent targeting may exacerbate asset bubbles or overlook deflation risks in productivity-driven economies.^[9]^[7] Historical precedents, such as the U.S. experience with prolonged high inflation in the 1970s, underscore the causal link between unchecked monetary expansion and price instability, reinforcing first-principles emphasis on controlling money supply growth to anchor expectations.^[10]

Definition and Conceptual Foundations

Core Definition and Objectives

Price stability is defined as a low and predictable rate of inflation that does not systematically distort economic agents' decisions regarding saving, investment, and consumption. The European Central Bank (ECB) specifies this as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of around 2% over the medium term, emphasizing symmetry around this target to avoid both excessive inflation and deflation.^[3] The U.S. Federal Reserve similarly targets an average inflation rate of 2% over the longer run as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, viewing this level as consistent with maximum employment and stable prices under its dual mandate.^[11] The primary objectives of price stability include enabling reliable intertemporal planning by households and firms, where agents can forecast the real value of future income and expenditures without erosion from unanticipated price changes.^[3] It also minimizes menu costs—the resource expenses firms incur from frequent nominal price adjustments—and reduces distortions in relative price signals that could otherwise obscure information about scarcity and preferences.^[12] These aims collectively lower the welfare costs of inflation, such as inefficiencies in resource allocation arising from money illusion or uneven price adjustments across sectors.^[13] By maintaining prices stable at low levels, monetary policy supports efficient market outcomes where voluntary exchanges reflect genuine comparative advantages and consumer valuations, free from monetary-induced noise that could lead to suboptimal capital formation or consumption timing.^[12] This framework prioritizes the neutrality of money in long-run growth, ensuring that nominal stability preserves the integrity of real economic signals.^[14] Price stability, as conceptualized in modern monetary policy, permits a low positive inflation rate—often targeted at around 2% annually—rather than strict zero inflation, to provide a margin against deflationary pressures that could amplify recessions via heightened real debt obligations and postponed spending.^[15] Zero inflation, by contrast, implies no net change in the general price level, which risks crossing into deflation if measurement errors or downward rigidities in wages and prices prevail, thereby constraining nominal interest rates and policy flexibility.^[1] This allowance for mild inflation under price stability seeks to equilibrate the economy without the cumulative erosion associated with unchecked price rises, distinguishing it from absolute price invariance. A further delineation exists between price stability via inflation rate targeting and price level targeting, where the latter anchors the nominal price index to a fixed path over time, necessitating restorative actions to reverse deviations such as temporary deflations.^[16] Inflation rate targeting, prevalent in price stability frameworks, stabilizes the rate of change rather than the level, permitting past errors to compound into a secular upward trend in prices without obligatory correction.^[17] Under price level targeting, an undershoot in inflation prompts subsequent expansionary measures to realign the level, potentially yielding greater long-run predictability but heightened short-term volatility in inflation.^[18] From a first-principles vantage, positive inflation targets inherent to many price stability regimes invite moral hazard through central bank discretion, as they embed tolerance for deviations that may incentivize fiscal expansions reliant on monetary offset, eroding incentives for budgetary restraint.^[19] This discretion contrasts with zero or price level anchors, which impose stricter accountability by disallowing ratcheting effects, though mainstream frameworks justify positive targets to mitigate perceived rigidity costs despite the risk of anchoring erosion over time.^[18]

Historical Context

Early Economic Thought and Gold Standard Era

Classical economists viewed price stability as inherently linked to commodity money standards, which constrained monetary expansion and aligned the money supply with real economic output. David Hume, in his 1752 essay "Of Money," articulated the quantity theory of money, positing that an increase in circulating specie would elevate prices proportionally until equilibrium was restored via international trade adjustments, thereby favoring metallic currencies over fiat to avoid distortions from arbitrary issuance.^[20] David Ricardo extended this in his 1810 "High Price of Bullion" report, criticizing the Bank of England's overissuance of paper notes during the Napoleonic Wars, which he argued caused depreciation and inflation by severing the link to gold bullion; he advocated an inconvertible metallic standard to ensure the currency's value reflected scarce commodities rather than policy discretion.^[21] These views underscored a first-principles causal chain: stable prices emerge when money functions as a neutral medium, not subject to debasement, preventing wealth transfers from savers to debtors. The classical gold standard, formalized internationally from approximately 1870 to 1914, provided empirical evidence of this approach, with participating economies experiencing long-run price stability despite short-term fluctuations from gold discoveries or harvests. Wholesale prices in Britain, a core adherent, trended flat over the period, with annual inflation averaging near zero and volatility lower than in preceding bimetallic eras, as the fixed exchange rates and automatic specie flows disciplined monetary policy absent central banks.^[22] In the United States, post-1879 resumption saw deflationary episodes amid rapid growth, reflecting gold's scarcity relative to output expansion, yet overall price levels reverted to pre-panic trends, demonstrating the system's tendency toward equilibrium without sustained inflation.^[23] Deviations from strict adherence, often during wars, highlighted the causal risks of monetary expansion overriding commodity constraints. The American Civil War (1861–1865) saw the Union issue unbacked greenbacks, driving cumulative inflation to 80% by 1864, as government financing via fiat bypassed gold convertibility; prices subsided post-war upon partial redemption.^[24] Similarly, the Confederate States' reliance on printed currency fueled hyperinflation exceeding 9,000% by 1865, directly attributable to unchecked note issuance for military expenditures without metallic backing.^[24] These episodes reinforced classical critiques, showing that wartime suspensions enabled causal inflationary spikes, but reversion to the standard typically restored stability through contraction and specie inflows.^[25]

20th-Century Shifts and Hyperinflation Lessons

The interwar period highlighted the vulnerabilities of transitioning from gold-backed currencies to more flexible fiat systems, exemplified by the hyperinflation in Weimar Germany during 1923. Triggered by post-World War I reparations obligations under the Treaty of Versailles and fiscal deficits financed through money creation, the Reichsbank expanded the money supply exponentially, with currency in circulation growing by factors exceeding 1,000-fold between 1919 and 1923.^[26] This led to monthly inflation rates peaking at approximately 29,500% in November 1923, eroding the purchasing power of the mark to the point where one U.S. dollar equaled trillions of marks.^[27] Empirical analysis confirms that this episode aligned with the quantity theory of money (MV = PQ), where excessive growth in money supply (M) outpaced output (Q), with velocity (V) remaining relatively stable amid public anticipation of further devaluation, directly causing price surges (P).^[27] A comparable failure occurred in Zimbabwe during the 2000s, where unchecked fiat money printing to cover government deficits and land reform costs precipitated the modern era's most extreme hyperinflation. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe increased the money supply by over 1,000% annually in the mid-2000s, culminating in an annual inflation rate of 89.7 sextillion percent by November 2008, rendering the Zimbabwean dollar worthless and prompting the issuance of 100-trillion-dollar notes.^[28] This monetary mismanagement, absent gold constraints, demonstrated causal links between unchecked seigniorage and value erosion, with empirical data showing money growth far exceeding real economic expansion and velocity spiking due to loss of confidence in the currency.^[29] Such cases underscore fiat systems' susceptibility to political pressures overriding fiscal discipline, leading to rapid currency debasement without external anchors. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 further exposed limitations of fixed exchange rate regimes reliant on partial gold convertibility. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon suspended the U.S. dollar's convertibility into gold—the "Nixon Shock"—amid persistent U.S. balance-of-payments deficits and inflationary pressures, effectively ending the system's commitment to fixed parities.^[30] This shift to floating rates facilitated monetary expansion without gold discipline, contributing to the 1970s stagflation, where U.S. inflation averaged 7.1% annually from 1973 to 1981, peaking at 13.5% in 1980 alongside unemployment rates exceeding 9%.^[31] Oil shocks amplified supply-side pressures, but underlying causes traced to loose monetary policy and the abandonment of exchange rate constraints, as evidenced by sustained money supply growth outpacing productivity; quantity theory metrics reveal that deviations in M growth explained much of the persistent P rises, with V fluctuating but not offsetting the excess.^[31] These episodes collectively illustrate how detachment from commodity standards enabled causal chains of monetary excess, fostering instability absent rigorous supply controls.^[32]

Modern Adoption by Central Banks

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the United States Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker shifted monetary policy to prioritize inflation control, marking a pivotal break from prior accommodative stances. Appointed in August 1979 amid double-digit inflation exceeding 13% annually, Volcker implemented aggressive measures in October 1979, including a focus on money supply growth targets over interest rates, which drove the federal funds rate to peaks above 20% by 1981.^[33]^[34] These actions induced two recessions (1980 and 1981-1982) but reduced inflation from 13.5% in 1980 to 3.2% by 1983, establishing credibility for price stability as a core objective and influencing global central banking practices.^[35]^[36] New Zealand pioneered formal inflation targeting in 1989 through the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act, which took effect in February 1990 and mandated the bank to maintain price stability as its primary goal. The initial target was set at 0-2% inflation, measured by the consumers' price index, with the midpoint of 1% aligned to genuine zero inflation accounting for measurement biases.^[37]^[38] This framework emphasized transparency and accountability, requiring the governor to be dismissed for failing to achieve targets, and served as a model for subsequent adoptions amid the post-Volcker emphasis on rule-based policies. The approach spread rapidly, with the European Central Bank (ECB) adopting an explicit definition of price stability in October 1998 as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area below 2%.^[39]^[40] This was later refined to aim for inflation rates close to but below 2% over the medium term. Following the Great Moderation—a period from the mid-1980s to 2007 characterized by reduced volatility in inflation and output—numerous central banks worldwide formalized similar mandates, with inflation targeting becoming the predominant strategy in advanced and major emerging economies by the 2020s.^[41]^[42] By then, explicit targets around 2% had been implemented by dozens of institutions, reflecting lessons from earlier disinflations and a consensus on low, stable inflation as foundational to monetary frameworks.^[43]

Measurement and Assessment

Primary Indicators and Indices

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), compiled monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), serves as a principal measure of price stability by tracking average price changes for a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by urban consumers, representing approximately 93% of the U.S. population.^[44] The basket's weights are derived from periodic Consumer Expenditure Surveys, allocating shares based on reported household spending patterns, such as 13-15% for housing, 15-20% for transportation, and smaller portions for food and apparel.^[45] This Laspeyres-type index uses a fixed-weight formula, aggregating lower-level price quotes from about 80,000 items across 75 urban areas via a geometric mean for elementary aggregates to approximate consumer substitution at that level. A key limitation in CPI aggregation arises from substitution bias, where the fixed basket overstates inflation by failing to fully capture consumers' shifts toward relatively cheaper goods when relative prices fluctuate, as economic theory predicts rational substitution behavior.^[46] Upper-level aggregation exacerbates this by employing arithmetic means that ignore broader cross-category substitutions, potentially inflating reported cost-of-living changes by 0.5-1.0 percentage points annually in periods of varying relative prices.^[47] Headline CPI encompasses all basket items, including volatile food and energy components, while core CPI excludes these to isolate persistent pressures, with the distinction aiding analysis of underlying trends but introducing aggregation choices that can diverge core rates from headline by 1-2 points during commodity shocks.^[48] BLS maintains a continuous CPI data series from 1913, enabling long-term benchmarks of price stability; for instance, the index rose from a base of 9.9 in 1913 to 314.8 in September 2025 (1982-84=100), reflecting cumulative inflation of over 3,000% amid episodic deflations like -10.5% in 1921 and hyperinflation risks avoided post-1940s.^[49] ^[50] An alternative gauge is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and favored by the Federal Reserve for its chain-type Fisher ideal weighting, which periodically updates basket shares to better reflect substitution across goods and services, thus mitigating fixed-basket biases inherent in CPI.^[51] PCE covers a broader scope, including imputed expenditures like employer-provided health insurance not fully captured in CPI surveys, and uses domestic purchases rather than imports, yielding typically lower inflation readings than CPI by 0.3-0.5 points annually due to methodological differences in weighting and coverage.^[52] Core PCE similarly omits food and energy, providing a supplementary aggregation lens for stability assessment with data traceable to national accounts since 1959.^[53]

Methodological Challenges and Biases

The Boskin Commission, appointed by the U.S. Senate in 1995, concluded in its 1996 final report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) overstated annual inflation by approximately 1.1 percentage points, with an interim estimate of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to unaccounted quality improvements, introduction of new goods, and substitution effects.^[54]^[55] These biases arise because traditional CPI methodologies often fail to fully adjust for enhancements in product quality or the welfare gains from consumer shifts to superior alternatives, leading to an inflated measure of the true cost-of-living increase.^[56] Hedonic quality adjustments, which regress prices against product attributes to isolate pure price changes from quality shifts, have been implemented post-Boskin but face econometric critiques for potential underestimation of quality gains or arbitrary model specifications that may not capture all value-added features.^[46] Similarly, outlet substitution bias—where consumers benefit from lower prices at discount outlets but CPI baskets lag in reflecting these shifts—contributes to overstatement, as fixed-weight indices undervalue such consumer adaptations until periodic rebasing occurs.^[57] Empirical studies, including those reviewing Boskin-era data, estimate these combined effects persist at 0.8-1.3 percentage points annually even after methodological refinements, undermining claims of precise price stability tracking.^[58] Such upward measurement errors in inflation indices foster causal distortions in monetary policy, as central banks targeting reported figures (e.g., 2% CPI inflation) respond to phantom pressures by overtightening interest rates, which empirically correlates with induced output gaps and avoidable recessions when true underlying price dynamics are milder.^[59] This misalignment, rooted in index construction flaws rather than deliberate design, highlights how unaddressed biases prioritize nominal targets over real economic welfare, prompting calls for alternative cost-of-living metrics less prone to systematic overestimation.^[60]

Role in Monetary Policy Frameworks

Central Bank Mandates and Targets

Central banks often incorporate price stability into their legal mandates as a core objective, frequently alongside other goals such as employment or growth, to guide monetary policy decisions. In the United States, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate—encompassing maximum employment and stable prices—was formalized by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, commonly known as the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, which required the Fed to promote these aims while minimizing inflation and supporting long-term growth.^[61] This framework evolved in 2012 when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopted an explicit 2% inflation target, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to operationalize the stable prices goal and provide a clear benchmark for policy accountability.^[62] In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB), established under the 1992 Maastricht Treaty (now reflected in Article 127 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union), assigns price stability as its primary objective, superseding secondary considerations like economic growth or employment unless these support stability. The ECB defines price stability as maintaining the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation close to but below 2% over the medium term, a quantitative target announced in 1998 and refined in strategy reviews, such as the 2021 update allowing symmetric tolerance around 2%. This hierarchical mandate prioritizes inflation control to foster a stable monetary environment across the euro area, without a formal employment target. Empirical studies indicate that explicit inflation targets function as nominal anchors, anchoring expectations and reducing macroeconomic volatility post-adoption. Research on emerging and advanced economies adopting inflation targeting since the 1990s shows lower average inflation rates and diminished output and inflation volatility compared to non-targeting peers, attributing this to enhanced policy credibility and reduced uncertainty in expectations formation.^[63] For instance, cross-country analyses find that inflation-targeting regimes correlate with stabilized trend shocks and lower dispersion in long-term inflation forecasts, supporting the role of targets in mitigating boom-bust cycles without relying on discretionary adjustments.^[64] These commitments thus embed price stability as a enduring operational focus, distinct from tactical policy responses.

Policy Instruments for Achieving Stability

Central banks primarily implement price stability through adjustments to short-term policy interest rates, often managed via an interest rate corridor system that bounds overnight market rates between a lower bound (the rate paid on reserves or deposits at the central bank) and an upper bound (the rate charged on standing lending facilities).^[65]^[66] This corridor facilitates precise control over interbank lending rates, which serve as the operational target, by incentivizing banks to borrow from or deposit with the central bank rather than the market when rates approach the bounds.^[67] A key benchmark for calibrating these rate adjustments is the Taylor rule, formulated by economist John B. Taylor in 1993, which prescribes the nominal policy rate as a function of the inflation rate, its deviation from target, the equilibrium real interest rate, and the output gap.^[68] The rule's baseline specification is i_t = \pi_t + r^* + 0.5(\pi_t - \pi^*) + 0.5(y_t - y^*), where i_t is the nominal policy rate, \pi_t is the observed inflation rate, \pi^* is the inflation target (typically 2%), r^* is the equilibrium real rate (often assumed at 2%), y_t is the logarithm of real output, and y^* is the logarithm of potential output; the coefficients of 0.5 imply equal responsiveness to inflation and output deviations.^[69] Central banks reference this rule to raise rates when inflation exceeds target or output surpasses potential, countering inflationary pressures through tighter financial conditions.^[68] In periods when policy rates approach the effective lower bound, as occurred post-2008 global financial crisis, central banks deploy unconventional instruments like quantitative easing (QE), which expands the central bank's balance sheet through large-scale purchases of government bonds and other securities to depress longer-term yields and stimulate credit extension.^[70]^[71] Complementing QE, forward guidance involves explicit communication of the anticipated future path of policy rates or balance sheet actions to influence market expectations and long-term rates directly.^[72] These tools aim to ease monetary conditions when conventional rate cuts are constrained, supporting transmission to broader economic variables.^[73] The transmission of these instruments to price stability operates through interconnected channels, beginning with policy rate changes that alter reserve availability and bank funding costs, thereby influencing credit creation and the growth of broad money measures such as M2.^[74] Expanded broad money, when outpacing real output growth, generates inflationary pressures by increasing the supply of means of payment relative to goods and services available.^[14] Simultaneously, credible policy signals shape inflation expectations, which feed into nominal wage bargaining, pricing decisions, and demand anticipation, reinforcing the causal link from monetary expansion to price level adjustments without relying solely on direct interest rate effects on spending.^[75] This mechanism underscores the indirect yet foundational role of money supply dynamics and anchored expectations in achieving stable prices.^[76]

Theoretical and Empirical Justifications

Economic Efficiency and Growth Arguments

Price stability facilitates economic efficiency by minimizing the resource costs associated with inflation. High or variable inflation imposes shoe-leather costs, where individuals and firms reduce nominal money holdings to avoid erosion of purchasing power, leading to more frequent bank visits or transactions that divert resources from productive uses; these costs rise with inflation rates, as modeled in the Baumol-Tobin framework and quantified in analyses showing opportunity losses equivalent to a tax on money balances.^[77] Similarly, menu costs arise from the need for frequent price adjustments, involving administrative expenses and potential errors in repricing, which distort relative prices and hinder optimal market clearing even at moderate inflation levels.^[78] By maintaining low and predictable inflation, price stability reduces these frictions, enabling undistorted intertemporal decisions and efficient capital allocation without the deadweight losses of inflationary distortions. The theoretical argument that mild inflation "greases the wheels" by easing downward nominal rigidities—such as facilitating relative wage adjustments without explicit cuts—has been challenged as a fallacy, with models indicating that any such benefits are offset or outweighed by increased uncertainty and volatility in higher-inflation environments.^[79] Rational expectations frameworks demonstrate that anticipated inflation fails to deliver real output gains, instead embedding higher steady-state inflation without enhancing labor market flexibility, while empirical extensions reveal neutrality or net harm from the "sand-in-the-gears" effects of policy unpredictability.^[80] Price stability thus promotes efficient contracting and investment by preserving the role of money as a stable unit of account and store of value, avoiding the misallocation signals from noisy price changes. From a first-principles perspective rooted in incentives, price stability counters the inherent inflationary bias in discretionary monetary policy, where authorities face temptation to expand money supply for short-term output boosts or to erode real debt burdens—a problem amplified under fiscal dominance when central banks accommodate deficits via seigniorage.^[81] Time-inconsistency models illustrate how credible commitments to stability rules align incentives, preventing the equilibrium inflation premium that arises from rational anticipation of surprise expansions, thereby fostering long-term growth through sustained capital accumulation and innovation undistorted by fiscal-monetary conflicts.^[82] This framework underscores stability's role in upholding property rights over nominal claims, essential for efficient market functioning and entrepreneurial risk-taking.

Evidence from Cross-Country Studies

Cross-country econometric analyses consistently demonstrate a negative association between higher inflation rates and economic growth. In a panel study of approximately 100 countries from 1960 to 1990, Robert Barro found that a 10 percentage point increase in annual inflation reduces the GDP growth rate by 0.29 to 0.43 percentage points, with the effect most pronounced at inflation rates exceeding 15-20 percent.^[83] This relationship holds across subperiods, implying that maintaining low inflation—typically below 5 percent in advanced economies—supports higher sustained growth by avoiding the cumulative drag, which can lower the GDP level by 6-9 percent after 30 years.^[83] International Monetary Fund research identifies nonlinear threshold effects, where inflation above 1-3 percent in industrial countries and 7-11 percent in developing economies significantly impairs growth, while rates below these levels show no adverse impact and often correlate with stronger per capita GDP expansion.^[84] These findings, derived from panel regressions controlling for factors like initial income and investment, underscore that price stability fosters resource allocation efficiency without the distortions from elevated inflation, though endogeneity concerns are addressed via instrumental variables such as lagged inflation.^[84] The Great Moderation period (roughly 1987-2007) provides further evidence across advanced economies, including G7 nations, where credible monetary policy frameworks halved output and inflation volatility compared to prior decades.^[85] This stabilization, observed in cross-country data, aligns with the adoption of rule-based policies emphasizing low inflation targets, rather than exogenous shock reductions alone, as inventory management improvements and policy predictability contributed to damped business cycles.^[86] Granger causality tests reinforce directional evidence, showing that adherence to monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rule variants, precedes reductions in inflation volatility and associated economic losses in panel data spanning the United States, United Kingdom, Mexico, and broader samples.^[87] Deviations from these rules Granger-cause higher stability costs (p<0.05 for most loss functions), while reverse causality is weaker or absent, indicating that systematic policy commitment drives stability gains rather than outcomes dictating rules ex post.^[87]

Criticisms and Alternative Perspectives

Shortcomings of Inflation Targeting

Inflation targeting regimes, particularly those centered on a 2% target for consumer price indices, originated with New Zealand's Reserve Bank in 1990, where the initial range of 0-2% was selected pragmatically to anchor expectations amid prior high inflation volatility rather than from rigorous microeconomic derivation.^[88] This choice, while influential in global adoption, lacks strong theoretical justification tying it precisely to optimal resource allocation or welfare maximization, as subsequent analyses have highlighted its ad hoc nature without firm grounding in underlying price formation dynamics.^[89] A key empirical risk arises from the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates, where low targets constrain central banks' ability to stimulate during recessions by necessitating deeper and more frequent rate cuts that exhaust policy space.^[90] Research from the Federal Reserve indicates that maintaining a 2% target elevates the probability of ELB episodes, with simulations showing increased duration of zero-bound constraints—up to several quarters longer in adverse shocks—potentially amplifying output losses by limiting conventional easing.^[91] This dynamic has manifested in post-2008 environments, where persistent low inflation forced reliance on unconventional tools amid subdued neutral rates estimated around 0.5-1%.^[90] Measurement challenges in indices like the CPI exacerbate these issues, as historical biases—such as substitution effects where consumers shift to cheaper alternatives not fully captured in fixed baskets—tend to overstate reported inflation by approximately 0.4-1.1 percentage points annually per Boskin Commission estimates from 1996.^[55] However, ongoing debates highlight potential underestimation from hedonic quality adjustments and outlet substitution, leading to de facto true inflation exceeding targets and compounding erosion of savings; for example, sustained 2% reported inflation reduces real purchasing power such that $100 today equates to about $82 in a decade's terms without nominal growth adjustments.^[92] ^[93] Furthermore, the low nominal rates required to hit 2% targets have been linked to financial instability by compressing risk premia and incentivizing leverage, as evidenced in the lead-up to the 2008 crisis where Federal Reserve funds rates below 2% from 2003-2004 fueled housing price surges exceeding 10% annually in key markets.^[94] This environment encouraged subprime lending expansion and securitization, with asset valuations detaching from fundamentals; FDIC analyses attribute accelerated home price appreciation directly to accommodative policy, culminating in bubble bursts that amplified the recession's depth.^[94] ^[95] Such patterns underscore how inflation-focused mandates may overlook asset price dynamics, prioritizing headline stability over broader systemic risks.^[96]

Heterodox Views and Zero-Inflation Advocacy

The Austrian school critiques fiat money systems and central banking for enabling unchecked monetary expansion that distorts relative prices and fuels malinvestment-led booms and busts. Economists like Friedrich Hayek argued in the 1970s that government monopolies on currency issuance inevitably produce inflation to finance deficits, proposing instead the denationalization of money through competing private issuers whose currencies would be selected by users for stability.^[97] Under such competition, stable-value options—potentially backed by commodities or algorithms maintaining constant purchasing power—would prevail, displacing inflationary government money and achieving decentralized price stability without discretionary intervention.^[98] Austrians favor rules-based commodity anchors, such as the gold standard, over central planning, viewing the latter as prone to knowledge problems where planners cannot replicate market signals.^[99] Market monetarists like Scott Sumner advocate price level targeting as a heterodox refinement, contending it avoids the ratchet effect inherent in inflation rate targeting, where deflationary episodes leave permanently lower price levels without compensatory reflation.^[100] By committing to a stable price level path, this regime requires offsetting inflation after shortfalls, reducing long-term uncertainty and aligning closer to zero net inflation than perpetual 2% targets, which Sumner argues embed upward bias.^[101] Such targeting echoes zero-inflation advocacy by prioritizing absolute stability over relative rate tolerance, potentially via nominal GDP level rules that accommodate productivity without nominal rigidities accumulating. Historical episodes under the pre-1914 classical gold standard demonstrate zero-inflation environments did not impede growth; average annual inflation across major adherents ranged from 0.08% to 1.1%, with prices showing mean reversion and no secular trend despite alternating deflation (pre-1896) and mild inflation phases.^[22] Real GDP growth during this period averaged higher than in many fiat regimes, such as 4.2% annually for the US and comparable rates elsewhere, refuting claims of deflationary harm by evidencing resource reallocation without liquidity traps or debt-deflation spirals.^[102] These outcomes underscore heterodox contentions that strict stability fosters efficiency absent modern central bank distortions.^[99]

Case Studies and Outcomes

Successful Implementations

Canada adopted inflation targeting in February 1991 through a joint announcement by the Bank of Canada and the Government of Canada, aiming to reduce inflation to 2% by 1996 and maintain it thereafter, which marked a shift toward explicit price stability as the primary monetary policy objective.^[103] Since then, consumer price inflation has averaged approximately 2%, remaining within or near the target band for most years, demonstrating effective anchoring of inflation expectations and reduced macroeconomic volatility compared to the pre-1991 period characterized by higher and more erratic inflation rates.^[104] This regime contributed to sustained economic growth, with real GDP expanding at an average annual rate of about 2.5% from 1991 to 2020, alongside minimized output gaps as evidenced by lower deviations from potential GDP relative to earlier decades.^[105] Australia formalized inflation targeting in 1993 under the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), establishing a medium-term objective of 2-3% annual CPI inflation, which allowed for flexible implementation to accommodate supply shocks while prioritizing price stability.^[106] Post-adoption, underlying inflation stabilized within the target range for extended periods, averaging around 2.5% from 1993 to the late 2010s, fostering a prolonged expansion with unemployment declining to historic lows below 4% by the mid-2000s and real GDP growth averaging over 3% annually through the 1990s and 2000s.^[107] The framework's success is reflected in OECD assessments showing subdued output volatility and gaps close to zero during much of this era, attributing stability to credible policy commitment that supported investment and employment without overheating pressures.^[108] Both cases illustrate how explicit targeting regimes enhanced policy transparency and accountability, yielding verifiable benefits such as lower long-term interest rates and resilient growth amid external shocks, with empirical analyses confirming that these outcomes stemmed from disciplined monetary tightening in the early phases followed by forward guidance.^[109]^[110]

Instances of Policy Failure

The European Central Bank's adherence to a uniform monetary policy in the 2010s amplified economic divergences across the eurozone, particularly harming peripheral countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy that required more accommodative conditions to counter sovereign debt shocks. This one-size-fits-all framework, ill-suited to heterogeneous economies, contributed to a 25% GDP contraction in the periphery by 2014 compared to just 2% in core nations like Germany.^[111] Policy errors included maintaining the key rate at 4% into mid-2008 amid global contraction and raising it from 1% to 1.5% between April and July 2011, which deepened the second recession and fueled deflationary risks in vulnerable states.^[111] In Greece, these dynamics intersected with fiscal austerity, yielding a GDP drop exceeding 25% from 2008 to 2016 and unemployment surpassing 27%.^[112] Japan's experience from the 1990s through the 2010s illustrated monetary policy impotence at the zero lower bound, where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) failed to arrest deflation despite aggressive easing. Following the asset bubble collapse, the BoJ delayed deep cuts until short-term rates hit zero in February 1999, yet consumer prices fell an average 0.3% annually from 1999 to 2012, with the CPI 3% below 1997 levels by 2003.^[113]^[114] A critical lapse occurred in August 2000 when the BoJ prematurely hiked rates amid ongoing deflation, eroding credibility and entrenching the liquidity trap; subsequent quantitative easing from 2001 expanded the monetary base but inadequately influenced broader money measures or expectations, perpetuating stagnation.^[113] Empirical breakdowns in money velocity further underscored policy miscalculations rooted in quantity theory assumptions of velocity stability. In crisis environments, velocity plummeted due to surging risk premia—such as the Baa-Treasury yield spread peaking in 2009—and flights to quality, severing the expected link between money supply expansions and nominal spending.^[115] This invalidated central banks' inflation forecasts during quantitative easing episodes, as seen in Japan's post-2001 measures and eurozone liquidity injections, where hoarding elevated money demand without generating price pressures, thus prolonging instability.^[115]

Recent Developments and Future Directions

Post-Financial Crisis and Pandemic Responses

In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) by setting the federal funds rate target at 0-0.25% from December 16, 2008, through December 2015, alongside three phases of quantitative easing to inject liquidity and lower long-term yields. QE1 launched on November 25, 2008, initially targeting $100 billion in agency debt and $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), later expanded to $1.25 trillion in MBS, $200 billion in agency debt, and $300 billion in longer-term Treasuries by March 2009. QE2 began November 3, 2010, with $600 billion in Treasury securities purchases completed by June 2011, while QE3 started September 13, 2012, involving open-ended monthly buys of $40 billion in agency MBS and $45 billion in Treasuries, tapering to end in October 2014.^[116]^[117]^[118] These measures expanded the Fed's balance sheet from under $1 trillion in late 2008 to approximately $4.5 trillion by October 2014.^[119]^[120] Despite the scale, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—a measure preferred by the Fed—averaged 1.4% annually from 2009 to 2014, staying below the 2% target due to persistent economic slack, subdued velocity of money, and credit constraints rather than excess demand.^[121]^[122] The COVID-19 pandemic prompted renewed monetary expansion, with the Fed announcing unlimited QE on March 23, 2020, to stabilize markets amid lockdowns and uncertainty, alongside fiscal actions including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act signed March 27, 2020, which provided direct payments, enhanced unemployment benefits, and business aid.^[123]^[124] This fiscal-monetary coordination fueled rapid M2 money supply growth, peaking at 26.9% year-over-year in February 2021—the highest since World War II.^[125]^[126] Consumer price inflation accelerated sharply, with the headline CPI hitting 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022, the highest since November 1981, before moderating.^[44]^[127] Fed research attributes the surge to a mix of supply shocks—including pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and energy price volatility from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict—and demand stimulus from policy measures, though empirical decompositions show supply factors explaining roughly half the core goods inflation rise in 2021-2022.^[128]^[129]^[130]

Debates on Target Revisions

The disinflation process in the United States from 2022 to 2025, following a peak CPI inflation rate of 9.1% in June 2022, prompted renewed scrutiny of the 2% inflation target adopted by the Federal Reserve in 2012.^[131]^[132] The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds rate target from near zero to a peak range of 5.25%-5.50% by July 2023 through a series of hikes totaling over 5 percentage points, which contributed to reducing headline inflation to approximately 3% by September 2025 without triggering a recession.^[133]^[134] This experience highlighted potential fragilities in the 2% framework, as the aggressive rate increases exposed risks of nearing the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates during future downturns, where policy space could be constrained if inflation expectations remain anchored below target.^[135] Proponents of revising the target upward to 4% argue that a higher long-run goal would provide a greater buffer against ELB episodes by allowing real interest rates to remain positive more often, thereby enhancing monetary policy flexibility amid persistent low neutral rates observed since the global financial crisis.^[136]^[137] Recent analyses, including a 2024 study, contend that elevating the target could mitigate deflation risks and improve stabilization of output and employment, particularly if structural factors like aging demographics continue to suppress equilibrium real rates.^[137] However, critics counter that such hikes could unanchor inflation expectations, increase uncertainty in long-term contracting, and exacerbate fiscal burdens through higher nominal debt servicing, drawing on empirical evidence from episodes where elevated targets correlated with volatile price paths.^[138] Advocacy for a zero inflation target, emphasized in select 2023-2025 theoretical work, posits that it would maximize central bank credibility by aligning policy with price-level stability, minimizing relative price distortions and measurement biases in official indices that overstate true inflation.^[139]^[140] These arguments, rooted in models showing reduced welfare losses from zero-bound hits under strict price stability, suggest that a 2% target implicitly accommodates upward biases in inflation gauges, eroding purchasing power over time.^[139] Empirical challenges post-2022, including uneven disinflation across core and headline measures, have fueled these debates, with some analyses indicating that zero targeting could better anchor expectations in high-debt environments.^[141] Fiscal dominance has emerged as a causal constraint on target revisions, particularly with U.S. public debt exceeding 120% of GDP by 2025, where mounting interest obligations—projected to surpass defense spending—pressure central banks to tolerate higher inflation to erode real debt burdens, thereby compromising policy independence.^[142]^[143] Right-leaning critiques highlight how unchecked deficits, driven by entitlement expansions and discretionary spending, invert the traditional monetary-fiscal hierarchy, forcing the Federal Reserve into quasi-monetization and rendering low-target commitments untenable without fiscal restraint.^[144]^[145] This dynamic, evidenced by rising Treasury yields and market pricing of persistent deficits, underscores that effective target revisions require addressing primary balances rather than solely adjusting inflation goals, as fiscal pressures could override doctrinal preferences for 2% or alternatives.^[146]^[147]

References

[1]
Defining “Price Stability”: The 2-Percent Solution - Purdue Business
Apr 15, 2025 · The most obvious definition of stable prices would be where the price level is constant over time. That is, relative prices could change but the overall ...
[2]
https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/topics/price-stability
[3]
Benefits of price stability - European Central Bank
When prices are stable, everyone is better off: price stability supports economic growth and employment, and allows people to make more reliable plans when ...
[4]
Why Stable Prices Are Important | St. Louis Fed
Feb 17, 2021 · Price stability reduces uncertainty in the economy. It keeps people at ease knowing that their wages are going to be enough tomorrow to buy ...
[5]
[PDF] Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD
our focus on price stability as the primary long-run goal of monetary policy. As I mentioned earlier, because the empirical analysis is based on a standard.
[6]
Comments on “Lessons from history for successful disinflation” by ...
Jul 25, 2024 · Over this span, core PCE inflation fell from around 6 percent in the second half of 1982 to 2 percent in 1996, and the economy enjoyed what has ...
[7]
[PDF] A Response to Criticisms of Price Stability - Joint Economic Committee
Other critics posit that price stability is an inappropriate policy goal, contending that some positive inflation improves the workings of the economy by ...
[8]
The Benefits of Price Stability - Federal Reserve Board
Feb 24, 2006 · The savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, which cost U.S. taxpayers roughly $150 billion, is an example of the kind of problem that can arise ...
[9]
Whither inflation targeting as a global monetary standard?
Dec 2, 2024 · Inflation targeting had to contend with the rise of financial instability, most spectacularly in the form of the Great Financial Crisis. In the ...
[10]
[PDF] PRICE STABILITY AND INFLATION TARGETS: A LEGISLATIVE ...
However, historical experience provides examples of times when the Federal Reserve has performed badly, delivering prolonged deflation or high inflation. A ...
[11]
What economic goals does the Federal Reserve seek to achieve ...
Aug 22, 2025 · The Fed's goals are maximum employment and stable prices, with a 2% inflation rate as a long-run target.
[12]
[PDF] A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability ...
(menu costs), the more efficient allocation of resources that comes with lower-and thus generally more stable-inflation rates, and the redistribution of ...Missing: planning | Show results with:planning
[13]
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=225929
[14]
Monetary Policy: Stabilizing Prices and Output
It generally boils down to adjusting the supply of money in the economy to achieve some combination of inflation and output stabilization.
[15]
Low Inflation or No Inflation: Should the Federal Reserve Pursue ...
The widespread appreciation the Fed currently enjoys has come as the rate of consumer price inflation has stabilized at a 30-year low of less than 3 percent, ...
[16]
Inflation targeting vs price-level targeting: A new survey of theory ...
May 11, 2014 · The main difference between inflation targeting and price-level targeting is the consequence of missing the target. Unanticipated shocks to ...
[17]
Price Level Targeting: What It Is, How It Works - Investopedia
But, while inflation targeting specifies a growth rate in the price index, price level targeting specifies a target level for the index. In a sense inflation ...
[18]
[PDF] Price Level Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?
In addition, a price-level target has the advantage of eliminating any average inflation bias resulting under discretion, in case the output target exceeds the ...
[19]
[PDF] NBER WORKING PAPER SER~S PRICE LEVEL TARGETING VS ...
Price level targeting is often said to imply more short-run inflation variability and thereby more employment variability than inflation targeting.
[20]
[PDF] 1 David Hume and Irving Fisher on the Quantity Theory of Money in ...
Hume and Fisher understood how the adjustment mechanism works in much the same way (and in a way that differed from Adam Smith's view of price-taking by a small ...
[21]
David Ricardo on the “mere increase of money” (1809)
The English economist David Ricardo (1772-1823) argued that the general increase in prices was a direct result of this policy.
[22]
[PDF] Stability Under the Gold Standard in Practice
Schwartz's review of the pro and con arguments concludes that, while the classical gold standard did not achieve superior price stability, it may have produced ...
[23]
[PDF] The Classical Gold Standard: Some Lessons for Today - FRASER
May 5, 1981 · 461-84 for evidence of long-run price stability for the United States under the gold standard. His evidence that positive (negative) auto.<|separator|>
[24]
The Century of Inflation - Finaeon
Oct 27, 2020 · The Confederate States suffered high inflation since they printed money to pay for the war. The eventual collapse of the Confederate States made ...
[25]
[PDF] Monetary policy and inflation in times of war
Prior to the war, Sweden had a gold standard, which had been introduced in 1873 in connection with the establishment of the Scandinavian monetary union.
[26]
[PDF] The Debt-Inflation Channel of the German Hyperinflation
May 27, 2023 · In this paper, we use Germany's inflation of 1919-1923 as a laboratory to study how a large inflationary shock transmits to the real economy ...
[27]
The Quantity Theory of Money in the Weimar Hyperinflation - Econlib
Nov 16, 2023 · In particular, the money supply continued to grow, albeit slowly, in 1920-21, while prices were falling. The quantity theory of money – as ...
[28]
89.7 Sextillion Percent: Zimbabwe and Inflation - Truflation
Jul 22, 2024 · Erosion of Savings and Investments: Hyperinflation wiped out the savings of ordinary Zimbabweans, as the value of the Zimbabwean dollar ...
[29]
Hyper Inflation in Zimbabwe - Economics Help
Nov 13, 2019 · The hyper-inflation was caused by printing money in response to a series of economic shocks. (The highest hyperinflation rate was Hungary 1946 ...Missing: peak | Show results with:peak
[30]
Nixon Ends Convertibility of U.S. Dollars to Gold and Announces ...
The new economic policy marked the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods international monetary system and temporarily halted inflation. The international ...
[31]
The Great Inflation | Federal Reserve History
So the story of the Great Inflation is in part also about the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the separation of the US dollar from its last link to ...Forensics of the Great Inflation · The Means: The Collapse of...
[32]
[PDF] The quantity theory of money, 1870-2020 - European Central Bank
May 14, 2024 · The quantity theory of money (QTM) posits a stable long-run link between money and prices, implying money growth is a key driver of inflation.
[33]
Volcker's Announcement of Anti-Inflation Measures
In October 1979, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker announced new measures by the Federal Open Market Committee aimed at reining in the inflation that had afflicted ...
[34]
The Great Inflation: Volcker Taught Us Many Lessons | St. Louis Fed
Jan 1, 2005 · Volcker, in office only two months, took the radical step of switching Fed policy from targeting interest rates to targeting the money supply.
[35]
Paul A. Volcker | Federal Reserve History
Following a sharp rise in inflation between 1978 and 1979, President Jimmy Carter shuffled his economic policy team and nominated Volcker to become chairman of ...
[36]
How the Fed ended the last great American inflation - Vox
Jul 13, 2022 · Volcker got inflation under control through the economic equivalent of chemotherapy: He engineered two massive, but brief, recessions, to slash spending and ...
[37]
Inflation Targeting in New Zealand - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The initial target for inflation was set at 0 to 2 percent. At one percent, the central aiming point was understood to be approximately consistent with genuine ...The Adoption of Inflation... · The New Zealand Approach · Evaluation
[38]
Inflation Targeting in New Zealand: An Experience in Evolution
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989 (RBNZ Act) came into effect in February 1990, making New Zealand the first country to formally adopt inflation ...
[39]
A stability-oriented monetary policy strategy for the ESCB
Oct 13, 1998 · The HICP is the most appropriate price measure for the ESCB's definition of price stability. It is the only price index that will be ...
[40]
Two per cent inflation target - European Central Bank
Therefore, the 2% inflation target is assessed on the basis of inflation developments in the euro area economy. Reasons for our inflation target of 2%. An ...
[41]
The Great Moderation | Federal Reserve History
The Great Moderation from the mid-1980s to 2007 was a welcome period of relative calm after the volatility of the Great Inflation.
[42]
The Evolution of Inflation Targeting from the 1990s to 2020s
Inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary policy strategy in large advanced and emerging market economies.
[43]
Moving targets? Inflation targeting frameworks,1990–2025
Mar 11, 2025 · This article provides context by using a new database of changes to the inflation targeting frameworks of 26 central banks since 1990.
[44]
CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer prices up 2.9 percent from August 2024 to August 2025. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent for the 12 ...Consumer Price Index · Consumer Price Index Summary · Consumer · CPI Videos
[45]
Consumer Price Index Frequently Asked Questions
Sep 25, 2025 · The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and ...
[46]
Consumer Price Index data quality: how accurate is the U.S. CPI?
Aug 21, 2012 · Substitution bias arises if consumers change their purchasing behavior in response to relative price changes. Economic theory predicts that an ...
[47]
Briefing on the Consumer Price Index - Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upper-level substitution bias occurs because the formula currently used to aggregate CPI subindexes ignores the fact that consumers substitute across item ...
[48]
Headline Inflation: What It Is and How It Is Related to the Consumer ...
Headline inflation is a raw figure that reflects changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) throughout the entire economy. It differs from core inflation, which ...What Is Headline Inflation? · How It Works · Core Inflation
[49]
Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
In 1921, the BLS published a national consumer price index (CPI), including estimates of the CPI back to 1913. The data and methods starting in 1913 are ...
[50]
Consumer Price Index Historical Tables for U.S. City Average : Mid ...
Consumer Price Index Historical Tables for US City Average. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (CPI-U) (not seasonally adjusted)
[51]
Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI)
The PCE price index is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The PCE Price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
[52]
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.
[53]
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): What It Is ... - Investopedia
May 10, 2025 · Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of consumer spending and includes all goods and services bought by U.S. households.What Is PCE? · Understanding PCE · PCE Price Index · How PCE Is Measured
[54]
The Boskin Commission Report - Social Security History
The Commission's December 1996 report recommended downward adjustments in the CPI of 1.1%. The CPI is the basis for Social Security COLAs.
[55]
[PDF] Bias in the CPI - Bureau of Labor Statistics
1 The panel's interim report estimated that the CPI has had a bias of 1.5 percent per year during recent years, and projected a bias of 1 percent per year in ...
[56]
Critiquing the Consumer Price Index
4 The first is substitution bias, which occurs when consumers substitute between types of goods and services when relative prices change.
[57]
[PDF] Handbook on Hedonic Indexes and Quality Adjustments in Price ...
... outlet substitution bias” caused the US Consumer Price Index to overstate inflation. Saglio (1994) contains data on shifting sales across sellers of ...
[58]
The Boskin Commission Report: A Retrospective One Decade Later
He estimates that the upward bias in the CPI has declined from the revised 1.2-1.3 percentage points in the Boskin era to about 0.8 points today.<|separator|>
[59]
Bias in the CPI: "Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong"
May 23, 1997 · The Boskin report argues that the BLS misses many quality improvements; and it estimates that in recent years this has caused CPI inflation to ...Missing: 1-1.5% | Show results with:1-1.5%
[60]
[PDF] Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index
Dec 7, 2001 · We survey the evidence bearing on measurement error in the CPI and provide our best estimate of the magnitude of CPI bias.<|separator|>
[61]
Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 (Humphrey ...
The Humphrey-Hawkins Act contained numerous objectives. Among them, unemployment should not exceed 3 percent for people 20 years or older, and inflation should ...
[62]
The Origins of the 2 Percent Inflation Target | Richmond Fed
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
[63]
[PDF] Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets
inflation targeting regime leads to lower average inflation rates and reduced volatility compared to a control group of non-targeters. A recent edited ...
[64]
Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies
We find that after adoption of inflation targeting, reduction in the volatility of trend shocks is observed for all these economies.
[65]
Monetary policy operational frameworks - a new taxonomy
Sep 15, 2025 · In a corridor system, the overnight interest rate trades in a "corridor" bounded from below by the interest rate paid by the central bank on ...
[66]
[PDF] Monetary Policy Implementation Without Averaging or Rate Corridors
The interest rate corridor is carefully positioned so that the central bank's target interest rate is at the midpoint of the corridor. Then, in the absence ...
[67]
[PDF] Instruments, procedures and strategies of monetary policy
Interest rate steering can be done, at one extreme, through a narrow interest rate corridor, bounded by the interest rates on the central bank's standing ...
[68]
Policy Rules and How Policymakers Use Them
Mar 8, 2018 · The Taylor rule is the best-known formula that prescribes how policymakers should set and adjust the short-term policy rate in response to the values of a few ...
[69]
[PDF] Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?
The fourth section concludes. The Taylor rule and global monetary policy. The Taylor (1993) rule takes the following form: y ri. 5.0). (5.1. *. *. *. +. −. +. +.
[70]
[PDF] Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy
Jan 2, 2018 · Quantitative easing (QE) is when central banks expand their balance sheet to lower long-term interest rates, by purchasing long-term bonds.
[71]
The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet as a Monetary Policy Tool
May 28, 2024 · LSAPs, or quantitative easing (QE), were intended to reduce longer-term interest rates further by lowering the yields of specific longer-dated ...
[72]
What is forward guidance, and how is it used in the Federal ...
Aug 22, 2025 · Forward guidance is a tool that central banks use to tell the public about the likely future course of monetary policy.
[73]
[PDF] Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis
It focuses on four sets of tools: negative interest rate policies, new central bank lending operations, asset purchase programmes, and forward guidance. It ...<|separator|>
[74]
[PDF] The Monetary Transmission Mechanism
The monetary transmission mechanism describes how policy-induced changes in the nominal money stock or the short-term nominal interest rate impact real.<|separator|>
[75]
The transmission of monetary policy - European Central Bank
Oct 11, 2022 · Monetary policy can be viewed as affecting inflation through two main channels: (a) reducing inflationary pressure by increasing economic slack.The Transmission Channels Of... · Empirical Evidence On... · Financial Markets
[76]
How Does Money Supply Affect Inflation? - Investopedia
Changes to the money supply may cause inflation. Inflation can happen if the money supply grows faster than the economic output under otherwise normal economic ...
[77]
[PDF] High Inflation: Causes and Consequences
The budget deficit grew from 6.7 to 14.7 percent of. GDP during this period, because failure to main- tain public-sector prices in real terms prevented a. Page ...
[78]
[PDF] modern approaches to central banking
In addition, inflation would generate menu costs--the costs of more frequent changes of prices. Menu costs have not been measured, but it is hard to believe ...
[79]
[PDF] Does Inflation “Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market”?
The paper evaluates if inflation eases labor market adjustments, but finds little evidence that wage adjustment is faster in higher inflation environments, and ...Missing: fallacy | Show results with:fallacy
[80]
[PDF] Does Inflation 'Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market'?
DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1995) present evidence that minimum wages exert a major influence on the lower tail of the wage distribution. We consider a worker ...Missing: fallacy empirical
[81]
[PDF] Monetary-fiscal policy interactions when price stability occasionally ...
The higher the risk of a shift to the fiscally-dominant regime, the larger is the inflation bias and, as a result of the monetary policy tightening, the real ...
[82]
[PDF] Monetary Consequences of Fiscal Dominance Risk* - SUERF
Fiscal dominance risk and inflation bias Under the considered monetary-fiscal configuration, inflation is generically higher than it would be if fiscal policy ...
[83]
[PDF] A CROSS-COUNTRY EMPIRICAL STUDY Robert J. Barro NBER ...
The growth rate tends to be high if the starting per capita GDP is low in relation to its long–run or steady+tate position; that is, if an economy begins far ...<|separator|>
[84]
[PDF] Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth
The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 7-11 percent for ...
[85]
What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence
The Great Moderation is more likely due to better monetary policy outcomes and improved inventory management techniques.Missing: credibility | Show results with:credibility
[86]
[PDF] The Great Moderation at 40: learning from the cross section
This study examines the drivers of inflation levels, inflation variability, and growth variability collectively representing long-term central bank ...<|separator|>
[87]
None
### Summary of Granger Causality Tests on Monetary Policy Rules and Economic Stability
[88]
[PDF] Origins and early development of the inflation target
Price stability and inflation targeting have been an estab- lished part of the New Zealand economic landscape for the best part of a decade.
[89]
The mouse that roared: New Zealand and the world's 2% inflation ...
Jan 30, 2023 · Since it's arrival in 1990, the 2% inflation target phenomenon has sailed from Wellington around the globe to become the accepted norm among ...
[90]
The Fed - Effective Lower Bound Risk - Federal Reserve Board
Apr 6, 2020 · New Security Issues, State and Local Governments · New Security Issues ... Deflationary Bias, Disinflation, Effective Lower Bound, Inflation ...
[91]
Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound
Aug 10, 2020 · Under inflation targeting, the negative shock pushes inflation down below target for one period, as policymakers, who are constrained by the ...
[92]
Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index
The most discussed is substitution bias, which creates a second order bias in the CPI. Three other changes besides prices changes create first order effects on ...
[93]
How Inflation Impacts Savings - Investopedia
However, if the inflation rate is 2%, the saver would need $102 to match inflation. The investor gained a dollar but lost buying power. When an individual's ...
[94]
[PDF] Origins of the Crisis - FDIC
One response to low interest rates was an acceleration in U.S. home price appreciation to double-digit rates for the first time since 1980. Another response ...
[95]
Timeline: The U.S. Financial Crisis - Council on Foreign Relations
Falling interest rates lead to an easy-credit environment, encouraging lending practices that prove unsustainable later in the decade. The ensuing credit bubble ...
[96]
Asset Price Bubbles: What are the Causes, Consequences, and ...
They show that if inflation is low during stock market bubbles, a central bank interest rate rule that narrowly targets inflation actually destabilizes asset ...
[97]
None
Error: Could not load webpage.<|separator|>
[98]
Denationalization of Money - FEE.org
The advantages that Professor Hayek claims for competitive currencies are not only that they would remove the power of government to inflate the money supply ...
[99]
[PDF] LUDWIG VON MISES AND THE CASE FOR GOLD - Cato Institute
Mises differed from proponents of zero inflation, not only because he rejected the treatment of a money of constant purchasing power as a theoretical ideal, but ...<|separator|>
[100]
Why the Experts are Wrong about Inflation - Econlib
Sep 18, 2024 · Many experts implicitly seem to think there's some sort of “ratchet effect”, where negative supply shocks push up prices, and then inflation ...
[101]
An Effective Monetary Policy with Nominal GDP Level Targeting
Dec 10, 2024 · Rather, level targeting means that policymakers care about the level of the variable being targeted more than they care about the growth rate. ...Missing: ratchet | Show results with:ratchet
[102]
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3919203
[103]
The Canadian Experience with Targets for Reducing and ...
In early 1991 the Bank of Canada and the Government of Canada jointly announced targets for reducing the rate of inflation on the way to price stability.
[104]
[PDF] Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target - Bank of Canada
Canada adopted an inflation-targeting regime in 1991, with a target of 2 per cent since 1995. Inflation has averaged very close to 2 per cent over that period, ...
[105]
[PDF] David Dodge: Inflation targeting - a Canadian perspective
Mar 21, 2005 · Empirical evidence shows that inflation targeting has been an unqualified success for Canada. Inflation has averaged very close to 2 per cent ...<|separator|>
[106]
Twenty-five Years of Inflation Targeting in Australia | Conference
It has been 25 years since Australia adopted an inflation-targeting regime as the framework for monetary policy.
[107]
70 Years of Inflation in Australia - Australian Bureau of Statistics
Oct 31, 2018 · Since the 1991 recession, the Australian economy has enjoyed a sustained period of low inflation, with annual movements in the CPI remaining ...Missing: outcomes | Show results with:outcomes<|separator|>
[108]
[PDF] Twenty-five Years of Inflation Targeting in Australia: Are There Better ...
This paper surveys alternative monetary frameworks and evaluates whether the current inflation targeting framework followed by the RBA for the past 25 years ...
[109]
[PDF] David Dodge: Inflation targeting in Canada - experience and lessons
Theory and empirical evidence suggest that there is no long-run trade-off between inflation and production levels. Indeed, there is evidence that a low- ...
[110]
Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation ...
The inflation-targeting regime proved much more successful than expected in achieving price stability. In contrast to the high inflation witnessed in the 1970s ...
[111]
[PDF] The Monetary Policy Origins of the Eurozone Crisis - Mercatus Center
suggests that the policy errors of the ECB—compounded by the problems inherent in applying a. “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy to a suboptimal currency ...
[112]
Yannis Stournaras: The Greek economy 10 years after the crisis and ...
Aug 16, 2019 · Between 2008 and 2016, Greece lost over one fourth of its GDP at constant prices, and the unemployment rate rose by nearly 16 percentage points.
[113]
[PDF] Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem
But the most likely cause for deflation in Japan is a failure of monetary policy, since inflation or deflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon. The Bank of ...
[114]
[PDF] 1 Monetary Policy during Japan's Great Recession
The decision to allow the bank to fail marked an end to the government's goso-sendan- hoshiki (“convoy”) policy in which troubled banks were kept alive through ...
[115]
[PDF] Money and Velocity During Financial Crisis
3 Friedman and Schwartz (1963) also emphasize the Fed's failure to protect the stability of the financial system, ... Quantity Theory of Money—A Restatement,” in ...
[116]
Ten Years Later—Did QE Work? - Liberty Street Economics
May 8, 2019 · On November 25, 2008, the FOMC announced what came to be known as QE1: The Fed would buy up to $100 billion of direct debt obligations issued by ...
[117]
Large-Scale Asset Purchases - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
In total, the Federal Reserve purchased $790 billion in Treasury securities and $823 billion in agency MBS in the third purchase program.<|separator|>
[118]
Timeline: Balance Sheet Policies - Federal Reserve Board
Feb 22, 2019 · March 18, 2009: The FOMC expands LSAP1 to a total of $1.25 trillion in MBS, $200 billion in agency debt securities, and $300 billion in longer- ...
[119]
Shrinking the Fed's balance sheet - Brookings Institution
Jan 26, 2017 · In a sense, the U.S. economy is “growing into” the Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet, reducing the need for rapid shrinkage over the next few ...
[120]
Balance Sheet Trends - Accessible - Federal Reserve Board
Total Assets of the Federal Reserve In millions of dollars ; 24-Sep-2014, 4459050 ; 1-Oct-2014, 4450260 ; 8-Oct-2014, 4455403 ; 15-Oct-2014, 4474360.
[121]
Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy ...
Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) from Jan 1959 to Aug ...Missing: 2009-2014 | Show results with:2009-2014
[122]
FEDS Notes: Residual Seasonality in Core Consumer Price Inflation
Chart 3: Real-Time Market-Based Core PCE Price Inflation ; 2008, 2.06, 1.26 ; 2009, 2.23, 1.07 ; 2010, 0.98, 0.52 ; 2011, 2.26, 1.67.
[123]
A Visualization of the CARES Act -2020-03-27
Mar 27, 2020 · The President yesterday signed into law the CARES Act, a $2.3 trillion relief package aimed at ameliorating some of the effects of the economic slowdown.
[124]
H.R.748 - 116th Congress (2019-2020): CARES Act - Congress.gov
3601) Current law specifies that paid family and medical leave with respect to the COVID-19 public health emergency shall not exceed $200 per day or $10,000 in ...
[125]
The Rise and Fall of M2 | St. Louis Fed
May 23, 2023 · The 26.9% rate of year-over-year growth in February 2021 easily exceeds the rates of growth during either the quantitative easing programs of ...
[126]
M2 (M2SL) - FRED - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
View data of a measure of the U.S. money supply that includes all components of M1 plus several less-liquid assets.
[127]
Consumer Price Index: 2022 in review - Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan 17, 2023 · Consumer prices for all items rose 6.5 percent from December 2021 to December 2022. Food prices increased 10.4 percent, reflecting an 11.8-percent increase in ...
[128]
[PDF] Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation - Federal Reserve Board
In the later half of 2021 and into 2022, the United States experienced a burst of inflation as it emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, led by a large increase ...
[129]
[PDF] Speech by Governor Kugler on global inflation
Oct 8, 2024 · My assessment is that both supply and demand contributed to the recent global inflationary episode, including in the ... Federal Reserve ...<|separator|>
[130]
[PDF] Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics - Federal Reserve Board
We find that shocks to trade costs contributed to preventing deflation in the early phases of the pandemic and added about one percentage point to inflation in ...
[131]
The rise and retreat of US inflation: An update | CEPR
Jun 19, 2025 · The 12-month CPI inflation rate rose from an average of 2.1% over 2017-2019 to 9.0% in June 2022, alarming economists and the public. Then, ...
[132]
A timeline of the Fed's '22–'23 rate hikes & what caused them
Apr 12, 2024 · Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. In July 2023, the Fed made its final 0.25% increase, bringing rates to 5.25–5.50%. The Fed funds rate ...
[133]
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2025 – Forbes Advisor
Sep 18, 2025 · Fed Rate Hikes 2022-2025: Taming Inflation and Beyond ; July 26, 2023. +25. 5.25% to 5.50% ; May 3, 2023. +25. 5.00% to 5.25% ; March 22, 2023. +25.
[134]
United States Inflation Rate - Trading Economics
The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 3% in September 2025, the highest since January, from 2.9% in August and below forecasts of 3.1%.
[135]
[PDF] Monetary Policy Strategy and the Anchoring of Long-Run Inflation ...
Mar 26, 2025 · This research examines a monetary policy strategy that explicitly responds to movements in long-run inflation expectations, integrating insights ...
[136]
[PDF] The Case for a Long-Run Inflation Target of Four Percent
Jun 1, 2014 · This essay argues that central banks would do better to target 4% inflation. Raising the inflation target from 2% would ease the constraints on ...
[137]
Should the Federal Reserve raise its inflation target? - White
Oct 11, 2024 · Proposals to raise the inflation target above 2% are likely to be prominent as the FOMC reviews its policy framework in 2025. Arguments aimed at ...
[138]
The Fed does listen: How it revised the monetary policy framework
Aug 28, 2025 · So the Fed has dropped the pledge to encourage above-target inflation for a time after a period of below-target inflation. It is now pursuing ...Missing: 4%
[139]
Inflation Targets and the Zero Lower Bound by Flora Budianto :: SSRN
Jan 27, 2023 · I provide an example in which a 4% inflation target can, in fact, increase the risk of hitting the ZLB relative to a 2% inflation target.Missing: advocacy 2023-2025
[140]
[PDF] 0225 On inflation targeting - Bernanke March 6 V2
Mar 6, 2025 · Price stability was defined to be 0 to 2 percent, and there was an expectation that repeated failure to meet that target would cost the governor ...
[141]
[PDF] Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges
Given this experience, the post-2022 disinflation was unique because inflation declined without a large increase in unemployment. While supply improvements ...Missing: revising | Show results with:revising
[142]
Climbing US government debt casts a fiscal shadow - Deloitte
Sep 30, 2025 · In July 2025, the average interest rate on marketable debt was 3.4%—more than double the level seen in early 2022 and the highest since late ...
[143]
Why A New Era Of Fiscal Dominance Will Dictate Monetary Policy
Sep 3, 2025 · The CBO projects net interest outlays will exceed defense spending from 2025 through 2035—a clear marker of fiscal limits.
[144]
Government Debt Is the Real Threat to Central Bank Independence
Jul 30, 2025 · In short, under fiscal dominance, monetary and financial policies get subordinated to support government's financing needs, with more tolerance ...
[145]
Fiscal Dominance Brings Financial Repression - Econlib
Aug 28, 2025 · Fiscal dominance is the opposite of central bank independence. The idea is making a comeback (see Ian Smith, “Investors Warn of 'New Era of ...
[146]
Trump's interest rate demands put 'fiscal dominance' in market ...
Aug 19, 2025 · Soaring US debt could undermine inflation control, investors say · High long-term yields, weak dollar signal market worries · Fed independence ...
[147]
Fed-Treasury tensions and the risk of fiscal dominance - OMFIF
Sep 16, 2025 · Financial markets face a growing threat of 'fiscal dominance' – when finance ministries force central banks to underwrite government debt or ...