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Relative income hypothesis

The Relative Income Hypothesis (RIH) is an economic theory formulated by James S. Duesenberry in , positing that an individual's from and their decisions depend primarily on their and relative to others in their social reference group, rather than on absolute levels of . As Duesenberry stated, "the index is a of relative rather than absolute expenditure." This framework explains why aggregate savings ratios remain stable over time despite rising absolute s, as adjusts to maintain social standing within income distributions. Duesenberry developed the RIH to address a key puzzle in consumption economics: the inconsistency between cross-sectional data, which show savings rates increasing with income levels, and time-series data, which indicate a roughly constant average propensity to save across economic expansions. He argued that preferences are interdependent, with consumption influenced by social and psychological factors rather than isolated utility maximization. Central to the theory are two mechanisms: the demonstration effect, where individuals emulate the consumption patterns of higher-income peers through social interactions, leading to upward pressure on spending; and the ratchet effect, which describes the irreversibility of consumption habits, such that spending does not decline proportionally during income downturns after previous peaks. Mathematically, Duesenberry formalized this by suggesting that for a given relative income distribution, the savings percentage is "a unique, invariant, and increasing function of [a family's] percentile position in the income distribution," independent of absolute income. The RIH has influenced subsequent theories of consumer behavior, including permanent income and life-cycle hypotheses, by highlighting social comparisons and habit persistence. Empirical studies continue to find support for its core ideas, such as in analyses of in developing economies where relative drives spending patterns more than absolute gains. For instance, evidence from (1974–2019) confirms the and demonstration effects through cointegrated time-series models, with short-run adjustments aligning to relative positions. These insights underscore the hypothesis's relevance for understanding , savings trends, and policy responses to economic fluctuations.

Historical Development

Origins in Economic Thought

The concept of consumption being influenced by social comparisons and status rather than solely absolute economic needs emerged in economic thought well before the mid-20th century. , in his seminal 1899 work The Theory of the Leisure Class, introduced the idea of "," where individuals engage in lavish spending not for utility but to signal social standing and emulate higher classes, thereby establishing emulation as a key driver of patterns. This perspective highlighted how serves as a mechanism for social differentiation, laying early groundwork for understanding relative rather than absolute income effects on behavior. In the early , John Maynard Keynes's 1936 formulation of the in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money posited a stable relationship between absolute income and , with a less than one. However, empirical observations during economic cycles revealed limitations in this absolute income approach, as showed average propensities to consume declining with income levels, and short-run behaviors during booms and busts suggested influences beyond current income, such as distributional and comparative factors. These shortcomings underscored the need for theories incorporating relative considerations to better explain savings rates and volatility. Sociological perspectives further enriched pre-1940s economic literature by emphasizing and in consumption decisions. Hazel Kyrk's 1923 book A Theory of Consumption argued that consumption standards are socially determined, with individuals adjusting spending to meet community norms and achieve social adequacy rather than mere physiological needs, integrating institutionalist views on how societal pressures shape economic choices. This body of work, drawing from Veblen's , portrayed consumption as embedded in social hierarchies, where relative position influences aspirations and expenditures, providing a conceptual bridge to later formalizations. These ideas culminated in James Duesenberry's 1949 synthesis in Income, Saving, and the Theory of Consumer Behavior.

Duesenberry's Formulation

James Stemple Duesenberry, an American economist born in 1918 in , earned his bachelor's degree in 1939 and master's degree in 1941 from the , where he also completed his Ph.D. in 1948 after serving as a in the U.S. Air Force during . After the war, he joined as an instructor in 1946 and the faculty as an assistant professor in 1948, rising to full professor in 1955 and serving until his retirement in 1989. He died on October 5, 2009. Duesenberry's seminal contribution to consumption theory came in his 1949 book, Income, Saving, and the Theory of Consumer Behavior, published by , which formalized the relative income hypothesis as a framework for understanding household saving and spending decisions. The relative income hypothesis emerged in the post-World War II era as Duesenberry sought to address shortcomings in John Maynard Keynes's , which posited that consumption depends primarily on current absolute income levels and implied a stable over time. Drawing on empirical data from U.S. household surveys and during the and wartime recovery of and , Duesenberry observed that consumption patterns did not align with absolute income predictions; instead, saving rates appeared to remain relatively stable as aggregate income rose, challenging the Keynesian model's assumptions about independent utility maximization. His work built briefly on earlier Veblenian ideas of social emulation, where individuals' consumption is influenced by comparisons with peers, but Duesenberry grounded this in macroeconomic evidence to explain aggregate behavior. Duesenberry's ideas originated in his doctoral research at during the mid-1940s, where he examined business cycles and wage dynamics in industries like automobiles, laying the groundwork for his critique of neoclassical consumption models. The 1949 book, based on this dissertation-era analysis, received prompt attention in academic journals; notably, Arrow's review in the praised its potential to reshape consumer theory by integrating social and historical factors into Keynesian frameworks, though he noted challenges in formalizing its implications. Initial reception highlighted the hypothesis's explanatory power for postwar consumption booms but sparked debates on its compatibility with rational choice assumptions, influencing subsequent developments in .

Theoretical Foundations

Core Principles

The relative income hypothesis posits that an individual's utility from consumption is not derived solely from the absolute level of their income or goods acquired, but rather from comparisons with the income and consumption levels of others in their social reference group, resulting in interdependent preferences. This social dimension implies that satisfaction with one's own consumption diminishes if others in the relevant peer group—such as neighbors, colleagues, or community members—achieve higher standards, prompting adjustments in spending to maintain a perceived relative position. For instance, a family might increase expenditures on housing or vehicles to align with the visible consumption patterns of affluent neighbors, even if their absolute income remains unchanged. Central to this framework is the role of relative position within the income distribution, where an individual's propensity to consume rises as they seek to match or exceed the average consumption of their reference group, thereby influencing saving rates based on percentile standing rather than total earnings. This contrasts with views centered on absolute income, which treat consumption decisions as isolated from social context. The hypothesis underscores that lower-ranked individuals in the distribution exhibit higher consumption propensities due to the pressure to emulate those above them, while those at the top may save more as their relative superiority reduces the need for demonstrative spending. Psychological mechanisms drive these behaviors, including emulation, where individuals mimic the consumption standards of higher-status groups to preserve and social standing; demonstration effects, through which exposure to others' superior goods—such as a colleague's purchase—generates dissatisfaction and stimulates one's own spending impulses; and status-seeking, motivated by the societal imperative to signal via material acquisitions. These factors distinguish the relative income approach from models of purely rational maximization, as they incorporate social comparisons that make preferences dynamic and context-dependent, rather than fixed and individualistic.

The Two Hypotheses

James S. Duesenberry's relative income hypothesis comprises two interrelated components that explain consumer behavior through social and historical influences on spending. The first hypothesis asserts that an individual's decisions are primarily driven by their relative position within a reference group, such as , peers, or , rather than absolute levels. This relative position is typically measured by the individual's ranking in the group's , where lower-ranked individuals tend to consume a higher proportion of their to align with group norms. The second hypothesis introduces the concept of consumption irreversibility, often termed the , whereby households' spending patterns become anchored to the highest level previously attained. Even if current falls below this peak, does not adjust downward proportionally; instead, individuals maintain elevated spending by reducing savings or other adjustments to preserve accustomed living standards. This resistance to decline stems from established habits and social expectations formed during periods of higher . These two hypotheses interconnect through mechanisms of social emulation, where ongoing relative comparisons within reference groups sustain and amplify the over time. As individuals observe and aspire to the levels of higher-income peers, past benchmarks of peak income gain reinforced significance, perpetuating high norms even amid economic downturns or reductions. This dynamic underscores how relative positioning not only shapes immediate spending but also entrenches long-term behavioral patterns.

Mathematical Representation

Consumption Function

In the relative income hypothesis, the consumption function is formulated such that an individual's consumption C depends on their relative income Y_r, defined as the ratio of current Y to a Y_m (such as the mean of the reference group or the past peak ). The general form is thus C = f(Y_r) \cdot Y, where f(Y_r) represents the (APC), which is a decreasing of Y_r. This structure arises from the demonstration effect, where is driven by social comparisons: as relative Y_r increases, individuals experience reduced pressure to match peers' levels, leading to a lower (MPC) out of incremental . Consequently, the MPC diminishes with rising Y_r, and the APC falls at higher relative positions within the group, as a larger share of is allocated to savings to sustain social standing. Duesenberry derived this through interdependent utility functions, where an individual's U_i depends on their relative to a weighted of others' in the group: U_i = U_i\left[C_i / \sum \alpha_{ij} C_j\right], with \alpha_{ij} as weights reflecting social proximity. This implies the ratio C_i / R_i = f(Y_i / R_i, A_i / R_i), where R_i = \sum \alpha_{ij} C_j is the level, Y_i is , and A_i is assets. An empirical representation from Duesenberry's analysis of U.S. data expresses the average propensity to save (APS) as a linear function of relative income to past peak: \frac{S_t}{Y_t} = 0.25 \left(\frac{Y_t}{Y_0}\right) - 0.196, where S_t is savings, Y_t is current disposable income, and Y_0 is the previous peak income. The corresponding APC is then APC = 1 - 0.25 \left(\frac{Y}{Y_0}\right) + 0.196, illustrating how APC declines as current income approaches or exceeds the reference peak.

Ratchet Effect Modeling

The describes the path-dependent nature of behavior in the relative income hypothesis, where expenditures increase with rising but decline only modestly—or not at all proportionally—when falls, owing to entrenched social norms and the difficulty of downgrading established living standards. This irreversibility stems from individuals' reluctance to reduce below levels attained during prior peaks, as doing so would imply a loss of relative to peers or one's own past circumstances. To model this dynamic, the reference income is defined recursively to capture the upward-only adjustment: Y_{\mathrm{ref},t} = \max(Y_t, Y_{\mathrm{ref},t-1}), ensuring the reference level locks in the highest prior and only updates upon surpassing it. is then expressed relative to this reference, often in form as \frac{C_t}{Y_t} = a - c \frac{Y_t}{Y_{\mathrm{ref}}}, where a and c > 0 are parameters, and the term \frac{Y_t}{Y_{\mathrm{ref}}} embeds the relative standing. When current Y_t falls below the reference Y_{\mathrm{ref}}, the \frac{Y_t}{Y_{\mathrm{ref}}} < [1](/page/1), making the subtraction smaller in and thus elevating the average propensity to consume (APC) above its long-run equilibrium. This formulation integrates with the broader by introducing time dependence through the reference level. In the long run, the accounts for persistently elevated values despite overall growth, as remains tethered to historical peaks, preventing full adjustment downward during economic contractions and leading to higher aggregate stability. Graphically, this manifests as a series of short-run consumption functions that ratchet upward at income peaks—shifting parallel to the long-run function—but remain elevated during subsequent declines, producing a nonlinear, asymmetric path in - space that resembles a ratcheting mechanism rather than a smooth curve.

Comparisons with Alternative Theories

Absolute Income Hypothesis

The absolute income hypothesis, formulated by John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 work The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, posits that household consumption expenditure depends primarily on the absolute level of current disposable income. Keynes represented this relationship through a linear consumption function: C = a + bY, where C is consumption, Y is current disposable income, a is a fixed positive constant representing autonomous consumption (basic needs met even at zero income), and b (0 < b < 1) is the constant marginal propensity to consume (MPC), indicating the fraction of additional income devoted to consumption. Under this hypothesis, consumption is assumed to be a stable function solely of absolute current , with no influence from past , , or relative positions. This implies that as rises, the (APC = C/Y) declines, since the MPC is less than 1 and autonomous consumption becomes a smaller share of total ; conversely, during income falls, the APC rises. Keynes developed the amid the to explain short-run consumption behaviors, which contributed to by reducing through the multiplier effect. However, the hypothesis faces limitations in accounting for long-run consumption patterns, as from cross-sectional and time-series data shows a relatively stable over extended periods, rather than the predicted continuous decline with rising income levels. This shortcoming in explaining long-term stability prompted extensions like the relative income hypothesis.

Life-Cycle and Permanent Income Hypotheses

The , developed by and Richard Brumberg in 1954, posits that individuals plan their to smooth spending over their entire lifetime, rather than adjusting it strictly to current income fluctuations. According to this model, is determined by expected total lifetime resources, which include current financial wealth, anticipated future earnings (), and other assets. The basic can be expressed as C = k (W + H), where C is , k is a constant proportion (typically between 0 and 1), W represents non-human wealth, and H denotes the of future or labor income. This forward-looking approach implies that young individuals with low current income may borrow to maintain higher , while those in save from peak earnings, and retirees draw down assets to sustain spending, thereby stabilizing across life stages. Building on similar intertemporal optimization ideas, Milton Friedman's , introduced in , differentiates between permanent income—reflecting an individual's long-term average expected earnings—and transitory income, which consists of temporary deviations like windfalls or short-term losses. Friedman argued that primarily responds to changes in permanent income, with a high (MPC) applied to it, while transitory income has a low or near-zero MPC, as it is largely or used to offset shocks. The is C = k Y_p, where Y_p is permanent income and k is the propensity to consume out of permanent income, often estimated around 0.9 or higher. This framework explains why aggregate appears smoother than measured income, as households base spending decisions on of stable long-term resources rather than volatile current flows. Both the life-cycle and permanent income hypotheses emerged as critiques of earlier static models, much like the relative income hypothesis, by emphasizing individual forward planning and expectations to resolve observed consumption-income discrepancies. In contrast to the relative income hypothesis, which attributes consumption patterns to social comparisons and keeping up with peers' spending levels, these models focus on autonomous lifetime without reliance on interpersonal reference groups, thereby addressing puzzles like the cross-sectional variation in savings rates through personal optimization rather than demonstration effects. Friedman's analysis explicitly relates the permanent income framework to relative income ideas, noting that while relative considerations might influence perceptions of permanent income, the core mechanism remains individualistic and expectation-based.

Empirical Evidence and Testing

Early Empirical Support

James S. Duesenberry provided the initial empirical foundation for the relative income hypothesis in his 1949 book Income, Saving, and the Theory of Consumer Behavior, analyzing U.S. household data from the 1930s and 1940s. Drawing on from the 1935–36 Study of Consumer Purchases and 1941 budget studies conducted by the , he showed that the (APC) declines systematically with a household's relative rank within the . For example, savings ratios increased with position in the distribution, regardless of absolute levels, as lower-ranked households emulated the consumption standards of higher-ranked ones. This pattern held across urban and rural samples, with APC falling from over 100% (indicating deficits) in the lowest to around 70–80% in the highest, underscoring the role of social comparisons in decisions. Subsequent studies in the and built on Duesenberry's work, confirming relative effects through U.S. household surveys. Robert Ferber's comprehensive review in 1962 synthesized evidence from multiple U.S. datasets, including postwar expenditure surveys, demonstrating that relative measures—such as position within or occupational distributions—significantly influenced and . These studies showed that relative factors contributed to explaining variations in expenditures, beyond what absolute alone could account for. A prominent empirical validation of the hypothesis came from observations of the ratchet effect in post-war boom data, where consumption failed to revert after temporary income peaks. Duesenberry's examination of 1940s U.S. data revealed that households exposed to higher incomes during wartime prosperity sustained elevated consumption levels even as peacetime incomes fell, with savings rates remaining suppressed relative to pre-boom baselines. This asymmetry was evident in aggregate time-series data from the late 1940s, where the APC did not rise proportionally during the 1948–49 recession, consistent with the demonstration and ratchet mechanisms of the relative income framework. Later analyses of the 1950s U.S. expansion reinforced this, showing persistent upward shifts in consumption functions that aligned with relative income dynamics rather than absolute income fluctuations.

Recent Studies and Applications

A 2022 macroeconomic study on utilizing quarterly data from 1999 to 2019 found strong support for Duesenberry's relative income hypothesis, particularly the , where past levels persistently influence current spending patterns among lower-income groups in developing economies. The analysis, employing an autoregressive model, revealed a backward-J-shaped relationship in the , indicating that relative changes lead to sharper declines in the for poorer households, thereby explaining a substantial portion of dynamics in resource-constrained settings. In health applications, a 2021 study linked to the examined relative effects on elderly outcomes in using from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. It demonstrated that relative —measured against peers—exerts a significant negative influence on performance, independent of absolute levels, with amplifying psychosocial stress and contributing to poorer self-reported among lower-ranked individuals. This supports the extension of the to non-economic domains, where comparisons exacerbate disparities. A 2024 study on civil servants further extended this to , finding that relative has a stronger negative association with psychological distress than absolute , using longitudinal data from 1985–2019. Evidence from emerging markets in the shows mixed yet predominantly positive relative effects. A 2021 analysis of Pakistani data from 1986 to 2016 confirmed the prevalence of both and ratchet effects, with long-run marginal propensities to consume approaching , suggesting households prioritize maintaining relative living standards over savings, though short-run effects were moderated (0.43–0.66). Similarly, a 2022 study on Central, Eastern, and Southeastern , including , found that higher correlates positively with indebtedness for upper-income households via a "keeping up" mechanism, while lower-income groups face restricted access to credit, highlighting demand-side relative pressures in transitional economies. A 2015 methodological comparison using UK household panel data underscored measurement challenges in testing the hypothesis, as relative income effects varied by reference group definitions (individual vs. spatial) and estimation techniques (e.g., fixed effects vs. random effects ordered probit), yielding both positive and negative utility impacts but overall affirming the hypothesis's robustness when accounting for endogeneity. To address gaps in behavioral evidence, analyses of World Values Survey data have integrated relative income metrics with life satisfaction responses across global samples, revealing that perceived income rank relative to national peers stronger predicts subjective well-being than absolute levels.

Criticisms and Limitations

Theoretical Critiques

One key theoretical critique of the relative income hypothesis concerns its assumption of uniform interdependence in , where individuals are posited to base their primarily on comparisons within a homogeneous group. This overlooks the heterogeneity of social and varying intensities of across individuals, leading to an oversimplified model of social . For instance, Holländer (2001) argues that Duesenberry's framework fails to adequately validate interpersonal interdependence under standard economic , as it assumes consistent without accounting for diverse motivations or structures that can alter comparison intensities. The hypothesis has also been faulted for its sociological overemphasis, which prioritizes relative comparisons driven by social and psychological factors but lacks robust micro-foundations to explain why such interdependence dominates individual decision-making. In , this vulnerability arises from the absence of a clear optimization framework for agents, making the model susceptible to rational choice rebuttals that emphasize isolated, utility-maximizing behavior over social emulation. Critics, including (1957) and Pollak (1976), rejected the hypothesis for incorporating interdependent preferences that conflict with mainstream isolationist methodology, viewing its reliance on demonstration effects as and insufficiently grounded in individual . Furthermore, the relative income hypothesis is critiqued for its predominantly static structure, which focuses on current and past relative positions without fully integrating forward-looking behavior, rendering it less adaptable to economic uncertainty than dynamic alternatives. Unlike the , which incorporates expectations of lifetime resources to smooth over time, Duesenberry's model remains backward-oriented and tied to immediate social contexts, limiting its ability to address intertemporal choices under volatility. This static emphasis, as critiqued by (1950), undermines the hypothesis's explanatory power in evolving economic environments where agents anticipate future income fluctuations.

Empirical Challenges

One major empirical challenge in testing the relative income hypothesis (RIH) arises from problems, particularly the difficulty in defining appropriate reference groups and measuring relative accurately. Studies have shown that results vary significantly depending on whether reference groups are defined locally (e.g., neighborhood or peers) or more broadly (e.g., national or regional averages), leading to inconsistent findings across empirical analyses. For instance, when reference groups are constructed based on self-reported peers versus objective demographic matches, the estimated effects of relative on or can differ substantially, complicating comparisons and generalizability. Endogeneity and reverse causality further undermine in RIH tests, as consumption patterns may influence rather than the reverse, creating bidirectional relationships that bias standard estimates. This issue is evident in studies where mixed signs—positive or negative effects of relative —are observed, often due to unaddressed in self-reported or lagged variables; for example, econometric models accounting for these through fixed effects still yield ambiguous results, with relative sometimes appearing to boost rather than suppress . Evidence from post-1980s data suggests a declining of the RIH, particularly in high-mobility societies where social comparisons may weaken over time. analyses from this period, such as those using household surveys from the 1990s onward, frequently fail to find significant associations between and outcomes like or , with instrumental variable () methods and fixed-effects models often unable to reject the of no relative effect. This shift implies that absolute or other factors may dominate in modern, dynamic economies, rendering earlier RIH support less robust.

Modern Applications

Behavioral Economics

The relative income hypothesis, originally proposed by James Duesenberry in 1949, aligns closely with key concepts in prospect theory, particularly the ratchet effect in consumption, where individuals resist reducing spending after income rises due to heightened reference standards set by peers or past levels. This resistance mirrors loss aversion, as articulated by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), wherein losses relative to a reference point—such as one's position in a social hierarchy—are experienced more intensely than equivalent gains, leading to asymmetric responses in utility from relative income changes. Empirical analyses of happiness data further support this integration, showing that utility functions are concave in both positive and negative relative income domains, with loss aversion causing falling behind others to diminish well-being more sharply than surpassing them enhances it. Post-2000 laboratory experiments have provided robust evidence that manipulations of relative income influence subjective and spending behaviors, reinforcing the hypothesis within . For instance, in controlled settings, participants exposed to information about peers' higher earnings report lower income satisfaction despite unchanged income, highlighting the psychological weight of social comparisons. Similarly, online experiments inducing exogenous shocks to perceived relative standing demonstrate that individuals derive less from personal gains when others fare better, with effects persisting across demographic groups. In ultimatum games, where proposers divide resources, the provision of social comparison information—revealing relative income positions—prompts higher offers to avoid rejection, as responders penalize perceived unfairness tied to status disparities, thus linking relative income to cooperative spending decisions. These studies, often using real-effort tasks, also show that relative earnings reduce charitable giving, as individuals prioritize maintaining their comparative position over . Behavioral extensions of the relative income hypothesis have incorporated reference-dependent preferences, notably through the model of Köszegi and Rabin (2006), which posits that expectations serve as endogenous reference points, updating Duesenberry's social comparison framework to account for anticipated relative outcomes in consumption choices. This integration allows for dynamic analysis of how psychological adaptations to expected peer incomes shape saving and spending patterns, bridging mid-20th-century sociology with 21st-century cognitive biases like expectation-based loss aversion. Such models have informed broader debates on income inequality by emphasizing how reference shifts amplify perceived disparities in well-being.

Policy Implications

The relative income hypothesis suggests that policies aimed at reducing income dispersion can mitigate relative deprivation effects, thereby stabilizing aggregate and demand. taxation, by compressing income distributions, addresses the negative externalities arising from status-seeking behaviors where individuals derive utility from relative rather than absolute income positions. Such taxation can enhance , particularly in relatively egalitarian economies, by curbing excessive labor supply driven by competitive motives and potentially yielding Pareto improvements when pre-tax is low. For instance, models incorporating relative income concerns demonstrate that progressivity decreases as pre-tax inequality rises, balancing incentives while countering positional externalities. The hypothesis's ratchet effect—whereby consumption resists downward adjustments after income peaks—implies asymmetric responses to economic cycles, with consumption proving sticky during recessions and providing a natural floor to aggregate demand. This stickiness amplifies fiscal multipliers for stimulus measures, as households maintain spending habits despite income declines, but it also heightens the risk of prolonged downturns if relative income gaps widen. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize targeted fiscal interventions, such as tax cuts or transfers directed at lower- and middle-income groups, over broad austerity measures, to leverage their higher marginal propensity to consume and avoid exacerbating downward spirals in demand. Redistribution-focused policies are thus more effective for demand stabilization, as they counteract the ratchet by supporting consumption among those most sensitive to relative positions. In the 2020s, the relative income hypothesis has informed the design of social safety nets in developing countries, emphasizing -stabilizing programs that account for low positional concerns among the extreme poor to optimize distribution. Evidence from rural , where survey experiments revealed minimal relative income effects on from packages— with over 65% of respondents showing no positional preferences—supports policies allowing uneven transfers without significant losses from perceived . This informs scalable safety nets, such as Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme, by prioritizing absolute support over strict in benefits to enhance overall household resilience and aggregate stability in volatile low-income contexts. provides micro-level evidence reinforcing these designs, validating the focus on thresholds in aid allocation.

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