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Southern elephant seal

The Southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) is one of two living species of elephant seal in the genus Mirounga and the family Phocidae, renowned as the largest pinniped species, with adult males growing to lengths of up to 5.8 meters and masses exceeding 4,000 kilograms.^[1] Females exhibit marked sexual dimorphism, typically measuring 2.8 to 3.6 meters in length and weighing 400 to 900 kilograms.^[2] Characterized by the males' inflatable trunk-like proboscis, which amplifies resonant roars during territorial contests, these seals are adapted for life in the cold Southern Ocean, where they spend 80% or more of their time foraging at sea.^[3] Found in a circumpolar distribution across sub-Antarctic islands and continental margins, including sites such as South Georgia, the Kerguelen Islands, and the Antarctic Peninsula, southern elephant seals haul out on pebble or sand beaches primarily for biannual breeding and molting periods.^[4] Their diet consists mainly of squid, fish, and occasionally crustaceans, obtained through deep dives averaging 300 to 600 meters but reaching over 2,000 meters in duration of up to two hours, reflecting specialized foraging in the mesopelagic zone.^[5] ^[6] Reproduction is highly polygynous, with dominant adult males—known as beachmasters—fasting for up to three months while defending harems of 10 to 100 females on crowded rookeries, leading to intense physical battles that determine mating success.^[7] Females give birth to a single pup after a gestation of about 11 months, nursing it for 22 to 24 days on high-fat milk before weaning and returning to sea; pups then fast for another month while learning to swim.^[2] Lifespans reach 20 years for females and 14 years for males, with juveniles facing high mortality from predation by orcas and leopard seals.^[5] Classified as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List, the global population was estimated at 650,000 to 750,000 individuals as of the early 2000s, with major colonies at South Georgia and Kerguelen comprising over half. However, significant declines have occurred at some Antarctic sites, potentially linked to climate-driven changes in prey availability, and especially due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in 2023–2025, which have caused a 47% reduction in breeding females at South Georgia and mass pup mortality at sites like Península Valdés.^[8]^[9]^[10]^[11] Historically hunted to near extinction for oil in the 19th century, populations have recovered due to international protections, but ongoing threats include entanglement in fishing gear and ocean warming affecting foraging grounds.^[1]

Taxonomy and phylogeny

Classification

The southern elephant seal bears the binomial name Mirounga leonina, first described by Carl Linnaeus in 1758 as Phoca leonina.^[2]^[12] It is classified within the domain Eukarya, kingdom Animalia, phylum Chordata, class Mammalia, order Carnivora, suborder Caniformia, clade Pinnipedia, family Phocidae (true seals), and genus Mirounga (elephant seals).^[13] The genus Mirounga distinguishes it from its sister species, the northern elephant seal (M. angustirostris), and positions the southern elephant seal as the largest member of both Pinnipedia and the order Carnivora.^[14] No subspecies of M. leonina are currently recognized, though genetic variations have been documented among isolated populations, such as those at South Georgia compared to sub-Antarctic islands like the Kerguelen Archipelago.^[15] The genus name Mirounga derives from "miouroung," an Australian Aboriginal term for elephant seals, while the specific epithet leonina comes from the Latin for "lion-like," referring to the species' distinctive roar.^[16]^[17]

Evolutionary history

The evolutionary history of the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) traces back to the broader origins of pinnipeds, with the earliest ancestors of true seals (Phocidae) emerging during the late Oligocene to early Miocene, approximately 27–20 million years ago, in the North Atlantic or Mediterranean region.^[18] Early pinniped forms, such as the desmatophocid Allodesmus from the Miocene, represent stem groups that diversified in the North Pacific, while Phocidae radiated in the late Miocene from North Atlantic origins.^[19] The fossil record for elephant seals specifically is sparse, but a fragmentary late Pliocene specimen from New Zealand, dated to around 3.5–2.5 million years ago, provides the earliest evidence of the tribe Miroungini in the Southern Hemisphere, indicating an early southward migration and establishment of lineages in Antarctic waters.^[20] The genus Mirounga diverged into its two extant species during the Pliocene, approximately 0.6–4 million years ago, separating the southern elephant seal from its northern counterpart (M. angustirostris). Recent genomic and fossil analyses (as of 2024) support a Southern Hemisphere origin for the genus Mirounga, with early diversification in Antarctic waters.^[21] This split likely occurred as ancestral populations dispersed across hemispheres, with the intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during the Pliocene isolating southern lineages and promoting adaptation to subantarctic environments.^[20] Following the Last Glacial Maximum around 20,000 years ago, genetic analyses reveal dynamic postglacial recolonization of the Southern Ocean, characterized by range expansions from refugia and severe population bottlenecks, such as in the Macquarie Island colony, which experienced reduced genetic diversity due to isolation and climatic fluctuations.^[22] Key adaptations in the southern elephant seal include genetic modifications enhancing deep-diving capabilities, such as elevated myoglobin concentrations and evolved net surface charge in the myoglobin protein, which improve oxygen storage and release in muscle tissues for prolonged submergence in cold, oxygen-poor waters. Large body size has also evolved as a thermoregulatory trait, minimizing heat loss in frigid Antarctic environments through reduced surface-to-volume ratios.^[23] Phylogenetically, southern elephant seals belong to the subfamily Monachinae within Phocidae, sharing a closer relationship with monk seals (Monachus spp.) than with otariids (eared seals), as supported by molecular clock analyses estimating the Monachinae-Phocinae divergence around 15–18 million years ago.^[24]

Physical characteristics

Morphology and size

The southern elephant seal exhibits a robust, fusiform body shape optimized for aquatic locomotion, with a thick neck, short head, and compact muzzle.^[25] Its foreflippers are short, muscular, and tipped with claws that facilitate propulsion and stability on terrestrial surfaces, while the elongated hind flippers generate powerful strokes for swimming.^[25] The overall form minimizes drag in water, supporting the species' deep-diving lifestyle.^[25] Beneath the skin lies a substantial blubber layer, up to 20 cm thick, providing thermal insulation, energy storage, and buoyancy during extended submersion.^[26] The epidermis is covered in sparse, short hairs that undergo an annual catastrophic molt, revealing renewed skin; coloration varies from light gray to dark brown, often with a mottled appearance.^[25] This pelage offers minimal insulation compared to the blubber, emphasizing the reliance on subcutaneous fat for thermoregulation.^[25] Adult males typically measure 4.5–5.8 m in length and weigh 1,500–4,000 kg, whereas females attain 2.6–3 m and 400–900 kg, highlighting pronounced sexual dimorphism in size.^[27] Newborn pups are born at about 1.2 m long and 40–50 kg.^[28] Over the 22–23-day nursing period, pups consume milk rich in fat (averaging 45%, rising from ~16% to ~40% during lactation), enabling them to nearly triple their weight to 110–130 kg by weaning.^[29]^[30] Post-weaning juveniles grow rapidly on accumulated fat reserves and foraging, reaching sexual maturity at 4–7 years depending on sex.^[31] Sensory features include small eyes suited for low-light conditions and highly sensitive vibrissae (mystacial whiskers) that detect hydrodynamic disturbances from prey vibrations, facilitating prey location in deep, dark waters.^[32]^[33]

Sexual dimorphism

The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) exhibits extreme sexual dimorphism, one of the most pronounced among mammals, driven by intense sexual selection in a polygynous mating system where dominant males monopolize access to multiple females. Adult males can reach lengths of 4.2 to 5.8 meters and weights of 2,200 to 4,000 kilograms, while females are considerably smaller at 2.6 to 3 meters in length and 400 to 900 kilograms, resulting in males being 4 to 5 times heavier than females.^[27]^[34] This size disparity has evolved primarily through intrasexual competition among males for breeding rights, favoring larger body sizes that enhance fighting ability and mate-guarding success.^[35] Males possess distinctive secondary sexual traits adapted for agonistic interactions and signaling during the breeding season, including an inflatable proboscis—a trunk-like nasal extension that can elongate up to approximately 30 centimeters when extended—and a broader chest reinforced by a thickened, scarred dermal shield. The proboscis functions to amplify vocalizations, producing resonant roars that serve as honest signals of a male's size, condition, and dominance status to rivals and potential mates.^[36]^[2] In contrast, females have a sleeker, more streamlined body form with relatively less blubber accumulation after weaning, adaptations that facilitate efficient long-distance swimming and deep foraging dives essential for their energy demands.^[37] Ontogenetically, the proboscis begins developing in males around puberty at 4 to 5 years of age and reaches full size by 8 to 10 years, correlating positively with overall body growth and sexual maturity. Both sexes undergo an annual catastrophic molt, a rapid shedding of epidermis and fur lasting 3 to 4 weeks, which temporarily halts foraging and relies on stored blubber reserves, though males endure longer land-based fasts of up to 3 months during breeding due to their larger size and territorial duties.^[36]^[38] This dimorphism underscores the species' reproductive strategy, where male traits prioritize competitive success in polygynous harems, while female morphology optimizes survival and provisioning through extended at-sea migrations.^[39]

Distribution and population

Geographic range

The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) exhibits a circumpolar distribution throughout the Southern Hemisphere, primarily centered on sub-Antarctic and Antarctic regions south of 40°S latitude.^[2] Breeding colonies are concentrated on remote sub-Antarctic islands, including South Georgia (the largest site), the South Shetland Islands, South Orkney Islands, Kerguelen Islands, Crozet Islands, Prince Edward Islands, Marion Island, Macquarie Island, Heard Island, and the Falkland Islands, as well as the Antarctic Peninsula where smaller populations haul out on fast ice or continental shores.^[40] The species has also established mainland breeding sites such as Península Valdés in Argentina. Sub-Antarctic islands include the Marion and Prince Edward Islands off South Africa, while coastal areas of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand host occasional haul-outs but no established breeding colonies as of 2025; rare pup births have been recorded (e.g., one in Tasmania in 2023), though populations remain primarily on offshore islands.^[41]^[42] These locations provide suitable haul-out beaches for reproduction and molting, with seals generally avoiding densely ice-covered areas of the Antarctic continent except for occasional resting.^[43] Following breeding and molting periods on land, southern elephant seals undertake extensive migrations across the Southern Ocean to pelagic foraging grounds. Females typically embark on longer journeys, traveling up to 5,000 km eastward or westward into open Antarctic waters, often targeting productive zones near the Antarctic Polar Front or continental shelves.^[44] In contrast, males generally conduct shorter migrations, remaining closer to breeding colonies or moving northward along continental shelves, such as those off South America, to access benthic feeding areas.^[44] These patterns reflect a biannual cycle, with seals spending approximately 80-90% of their time at sea in the vast, ice-free pelagic realm of the Southern Ocean.^[27] Historically, intensive commercial sealing in the 19th and early 20th centuries decimated populations, confining many colonies to remote islands, but post-exploitation recovery has led to range expansions onto mainland sites. Notably, the Península Valdés colony in Argentina emerged in the 1960s, marking a significant recolonization of continental habitats previously abandoned due to human pressure.^[12] While the core range remains south of 40°S, vagrant individuals occasionally appear farther north, with records from as far as southern Brazil, Namibia, Ecuador, and northern Australia, often linked to oceanic currents like the Benguela or environmental anomalies such as La Niña events.^[45] Preferred habitats include gently sloping sandy or cobble beaches for terrestrial activities, transitioning to deep, open-ocean pelagic environments for foraging, where seals exploit vertically stratified water columns while steering clear of persistent sea ice.^[46]

Population size and trends

The southern elephant seal population was severely reduced by commercial hunting in the 18th and 19th centuries, reaching a low of approximately 100,000 individuals by the early 1900s.^[47] International protections implemented in the early 20th century allowed for a significant rebound, with the global population growing to around 664,000 by 1990.^[47] Pre-2023 global estimates placed the southern elephant seal population at approximately 700,000–750,000 individuals, including about 200,000 breeding females, though comprehensive censuses remain challenging due to the species' wide distribution.^[8] Pre-2023, the largest colony was at South Georgia, hosting over 400,000 individuals (∼54% of global), and the Kerguelen Archipelago around 350,000 individuals.^[8]^[48] Península Valdés had approximately 18,000 breeding females.^[11] At Macquarie Island, the population has been declining steadily, with breeding females decreasing from about 9,400 in 1949 to roughly 2,550 in 2023 at an average rate of 1.1% per year, attributed to reduced prey availability in foraging grounds.^[49] Overall, the population showed stable to increasing trends globally from 2000 to 2022, with an average annual growth rate of about 0.9% in some regions like Península Valdés.^[11] However, highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in 2023–2025 have caused significant declines. At Península Valdés, the outbreak led to nearly 100% pup mortality (∼17,400 pups) and an unknown number of adult deaths, with projections of a 100-year recovery period to pre-2023 levels (18,000 breeding females) under current conditions.^[50]^[11] The outbreak also reached South Georgia, halving the breeding female population (∼53,000 females absent in 2024), reducing the colony's total by an estimated 20–30% and impacting global abundance, potentially lowering it to 500,000–600,000 individuals as of 2025.^[10]^[51] These events mark a shift to a decreasing global trend as of 2025, with long-term recovery uncertain. Population monitoring primarily relies on aerial photography, drone surveys, and high-resolution satellite imagery conducted during the breeding season to count hauled-out females and pups, enabling estimates of total abundance while minimizing disturbance.^[8]^[52] The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classifies the species as Least Concern globally as of 2025, reflecting overall stability prior to recent outbreaks, though it is listed as Vulnerable in Australia due to localized declines at sites like Macquarie Island.^[53]^[54]

Behavior

Southern elephant seals exhibit complex social dynamics centered on terrestrial aggregations during key life stages. They haul out on subantarctic beaches in large groups during the breeding season in late spring and the molting season in summer, forming dense clusters that can include hundreds to over a thousand individuals, particularly females during breeding. These aggregations facilitate social interactions but are temporary, as seals return to solitary or loosely associated oceanic lifestyles for foraging, where interactions are minimal and unstructured.^[55]^[56] Male social structure is dominated by a linear hierarchy established through agonistic interactions. Subadult and adult males compete via vocal threats and physical fights, including trunk slaps, bites aimed at the proboscis, and attempts to pin opponents to the ground, with winners forcing retreats. Body size, enhanced by pronounced sexual dimorphism, confers significant advantages in these contests, allowing higher-ranked males to maintain control over beach areas. Over 90% of male encounters are resolved non-physically through displays, minimizing injury while reinforcing rank.^[57]^[13]^[58] Juveniles display distinct social patterns post-weaning, dispersing from natal beaches after about 22 days of nursing to avoid competition and predation risks. Weaned pups initially form small, unsupervised groups on the shore before entering the water, while subadult males aggregate into bachelor groups on the edges of breeding colonies. These bachelor groups serve as social arenas for practicing dominance displays and vocalizations, and they occasionally guard clusters of weaned pups from intrusions by other adults.^[13]^[59] Communication among southern elephant seals relies heavily on acoustic signals, particularly during haul-outs. Males produce characteristic roars by inflating their proboscis, which amplifies the sound to levels around 110 dB re 1 μPa at 1 m, serving to challenge rivals, advertise size and status, and facilitate individual recognition over distances. These vocalizations are highly stereotyped and vary by age and rank, with subadults developing more complex calls through maturation.^[60]^[61]^[62] Territoriality is a core aspect of male social behavior, with dominant individuals defending discrete beach patches against intruders to secure priority access to resources and females. These territories typically measure 10 to 50 meters in length and are maintained through continuous vigilance and displays for 1 to 3 months during the breeding period. Males fast throughout this tenure, losing up to 40% of their body mass by relying solely on stored blubber, which underscores the high energetic costs of territorial defense.^[57]^[27]^[63]

Reproduction

The breeding season of the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) occurs during the austral spring, typically from mid-September to mid-November, when adults haul out on subantarctic beaches to form breeding colonies.^[64] Females arrive pregnant and give birth shortly after, while males establish dominance hierarchies to control access to harems of females.^[65] The reproductive cycle is characterized by an overall pregnancy duration of approximately 11 months, including a 3- to 4-month period of delayed implantation that allows synchronization of births with optimal environmental conditions.^[66] Southern elephant seals exhibit a polygynous mating system, in which dominant males defend harems and mate with multiple females, often siring 70-80% of the pups within a given harem.^[67] Females typically give birth to a single pup, though twins are rare; newborns weigh about 40 kg at birth.^[68] Pups are nursed for an average of 22 days, during which they gain substantial mass from the high-fat milk, reaching 120-150 kg at weaning.^[68] Maternal care is intensive but brief; females fast throughout lactation, relying entirely on blubber reserves to provision their pup, and aggressively guard it against predators and other seals, losing up to 35% of their body mass in the process.^[69] After weaning, mothers depart to sea for foraging, while pups remain ashore for a post-weaning fast of about 1 month, during which they lose 20-30% of their body mass before entering the water for the first time.^[70] Females reach sexual maturity at around 4 years of age, while males attain sexual maturity at about 5 years, though social maturity and successful breeding often occur around 7 years or later due to intense competition.^[13] Maximum recorded lifespans are 23 years for females and 15 years for males in the wild, with females generally living longer than males.^[71]

Foraging and diving

Southern elephant seals primarily forage on squid, fish, and occasionally krill in the Southern Ocean, with diet composition varying by sex and location.^[72] Females consume large quantities of these prey items during their extended oceanic trips, with population-level estimates indicating substantial biomass intake to support energy demands; individual females may ingest several tons annually across multiple foraging periods to replenish body reserves.^[73] Males tend to specialize on preferred prey types such as specific fish or squid species, exhibiting more selective feeding behaviors compared to females.^[74] These seals are exceptional divers, capable of reaching depths of up to 2,000 meters and remaining submerged for as long as 2 hours during foraging bouts.^[75] Their physiological adaptations include diving bradycardia, which dramatically reduces heart rate to conserve oxygen, and elevated levels of myoglobin in muscles to store and efficiently utilize oxygen during prolonged apnea.^[76] GPS and time-depth recorder data from tagged individuals reveal that seals spend approximately 80% of their time at sea engaged in diving activities, with the majority of dives classified as foraging efforts.^[77] Foraging grounds differ between sexes: females typically target the Antarctic continental shelf and adjacent pelagic waters, following seasonal ice edges to access prey patches, while males often forage along shelf edges and sub-Antarctic plateaus.^[78] Post-breeding, females depart breeding sites immediately to initiate migrations, undertaking annual round-trip journeys of 10,000 to 20,000 kilometers or more, the longest known migration distance for any mammal.^[79] These extensive travels allow access to productive feeding areas but demand precise navigation and energy management. The energy budget of southern elephant seals is tightly linked to foraging success, with females accumulating 500 to 1,000 kg of blubber reserves prior to breeding to fuel lactation and fasting periods ashore.^[30] Juveniles develop foraging proficiency through trial-and-error during their initial oceanic trips, gradually increasing dive depths and durations as they learn to locate prey and optimize energy use.^[80] This adaptive learning is critical for survival, as early foraging efficiency influences long-term body condition and reproductive potential.^[81]

Ecology

Predators and threats

Southern elephant seals face predation primarily from orcas (Orcinus orca), which target juveniles and pups at sea, as well as individuals of all ages in sub-Antarctic waters.^[82] Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) occasionally prey on pups entering the water post-weaning.^[83] Large sharks, including southern sleeper sharks (Somniosus antarcticus), also attack weaned pups and juveniles, with bite wounds commonly observed on returning individuals.^[84] While adults are rarely predated due to their size, predation on weaned pups contributes to significant first-year losses in some populations. Parasitic infections are common, with nematodes such as Anisakis simplex, Contracaecum mirounga, and Uncinaria hamiltoni inhabiting the gut and causing ulcers or intestinal issues.^[85] Acanthocephalans like Corynosoma bullosum are found in the intestines, often acquired through infected fish prey.^[86] During molting, skin mites (Halarachne miroungae) infest nasal passages, leading to obstructive lesions.^[85] Natural disease outbreaks affect southern elephant seals, including bacterial infections and, more recently, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAIV) H5N1, which caused mass mortalities in South American and sub-Antarctic populations starting in 2023.^[87] ^[85] Competition for beach space during breeding results in trampling injuries to pups, often leading to crushing or drowning.^[82] Intra-species threats are significant during the breeding season, where aggressive fights among males cause severe injuries and contribute to mortality in adult males.

Habitat interactions

Southern elephant seals play a significant role in nutrient cycling by transporting marine-derived nutrients to coastal terrestrial ecosystems during their haul-out periods for breeding and molting. Large colonies deposit substantial amounts of guano, feces, and urine on sub-Antarctic beaches, enriching soil nitrogen and phosphorus levels and promoting the growth of coastal vegetation such as tussock grass.^[88] This nutrient input creates fertile patches that support invertebrate communities, which in turn provide foraging resources for seabirds like giant petrels and sheathbills.^[89] The foraging activities of southern elephant seals exert considerable pressure on Antarctic prey populations, particularly squid species that constitute a major component of their diet alongside myctophid fish. As top predators, they consume vast quantities of these resources—estimated at tens of thousands of tonnes annually by adult females alone—potentially influencing squid stock dynamics in the Southern Ocean.^[73] Their deep dives, often exceeding 1,000 meters and including epi-benthic foraging near the seafloor, can disturb benthic habitats by resuspending sediments and altering local invertebrate communities. Southern elephant seals engage in symbiotic interactions with certain marine organisms and facilitate scavenging opportunities for seabirds. They occasionally host epibionts such as barnacles on their skin during oceanic migrations, though remora attachments are less commonly documented compared to other marine mammals.^[90] Post-molt, as seals shed their outer skin layer in large patches, seabirds including giant petrels scavenge the discarded material and any exposed parasites, aiding in the seals' hygiene while providing a food source for the birds. Competition for limited beach space occurs between southern elephant seals and other pinnipeds, such as Antarctic fur seals, at shared sub-Antarctic breeding and molting sites like South Georgia. Elephant seals' large body size and aggressive territorial behavior during haul-outs can displace smaller fur seals from preferred sandy or gravel beaches, influencing spatial distribution within colonies.^[91] Dietary overlap exists with species like king penguins, as both consume myctophid fish, potentially leading to resource competition in productive Antarctic frontal zones.^[92] As bioindicators, southern elephant seals reflect variations in Southern Ocean productivity through analyses of stable isotopes in their blubber and blood. Carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) signatures reveal foraging locations near the Polar Front, where they target prey linked to high primary production, and indicate shifts in trophic dynamics that signal broader ecosystem health.^[93]

Conservation

Historical exploitation

The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) faced intense commercial exploitation beginning in the late 18th century, primarily by British and American sealers operating in sub-Antarctic waters. Hunters targeted the species for its abundant blubber, which was boiled down to produce oil used in lamps, machinery lubrication, and leather tanning; meat served as provisions for ships' crews, while hides were processed for leather goods. Operations focused on remote islands such as South Georgia and the South Shetland Islands, where large breeding colonies gathered on beaches during the austral summer, making them vulnerable to land-based harvesting.^[94]^[95] Sealing methods were rudimentary and brutal, involving sealers landing on beaches to club adult males, females, and even pups with clubs or axes during the breeding and molting seasons, when the animals were ashore and least mobile. No sustainable practices or quotas existed initially, leading to indiscriminate slaughter that prioritized short-term yields over long-term viability. The industry peaked between the 1780s and 1820s, particularly around South Georgia, where historical shipping and sealing logs indicate millions of seals were killed across the broader region over the century, with annual takes reaching tens to hundreds of thousands at prime sites during the height of activity. Incidental captures in early whaling and fishing operations further compounded mortality, as seals were often drowned in nets or harpooned opportunistically.^[96]^[47] This unchecked exploitation decimated populations, reducing the global estimate to approximately 100,000 individuals by 1890 and causing the complete extinction of the South Shetland Islands breeding colony by around 1830 due to overharvesting. At South Georgia, the core of the industry, colonies shrank dramatically as breeding sites were depleted one by one, shifting pressure to more remote locations before the trade became uneconomical by the mid-19th century. Early regulatory efforts emerged in the late 1800s through voluntary agreements among sealers, but full protections, including the 1964 ban under the Antarctic Treaty System, marked the onset of recovery, with populations showing about 2% annual growth rates from the early 20th century onward.^[97]

Current status and threats

The southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) is classified as Least Concern on the global IUCN Red List, with the assessment conducted in 2014 indicating a stable population trend overall, though a reassessment is underway as of 2024-2025.^[98] Recent highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks have caused significant declines at major colonies, potentially altering this trend. Regionally, it is listed as Endangered in Tasmania under the Threatened Species Protection Act 1995 due to historical extirpation and rare breeding occurrences.^[99] A major threat emerged in 2023-2024 from highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1), which spilled over from infected seabirds and caused catastrophic mortality at multiple sites, including Península Valdés in Argentina, where approximately 96% of pups died by November 2023 (over 17,000 individuals, including an unknown number of adults), and South Georgia, the largest breeding colony, where about 47% of breeding females (~53,000 individuals) were absent during the 2024 season.^[100]^[101]^[102] This outbreak reversed prior modest growth of 0.9% annually from 2000 to 2022 in the affected colony and led to ongoing declines, with 2025 surveys showing further reductions in pup numbers one year post-epidemic.^[11]^[103]^[10] Entanglement in fishing gear, including squid nets and lost debris, poses another risk, particularly to juveniles during foraging migrations; observed rates are low at around 0.17% overall in monitored sub-Antarctic populations, though individual cases can result in severe injury or drowning.^[104] Tourism disturbance at breeding colonies can disrupt nursing and weaning behaviors, leading to reduced pup weights in affected areas, while pollution from ingested plastics during deep dives contributes to sublethal health impacts like gastrointestinal blockages.^[105]^[106] Annual censuses by organizations such as the Wildlife Conservation Society reveal localized declines, including a 1.1% yearly decrease in breeding females at Macquarie Island through 2023, exacerbated by these non-climate factors.

Protection measures

The Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), established in 1980 and entering into force in 1982, regulates fishing activities in the Southern Ocean to maintain ecological balance, indirectly protecting southern elephant seals by managing krill harvests and other prey species essential to their diet.^[107] Complementing this, the 1972 Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals (CCAS), which entered into force in 1978, explicitly bans commercial hunting of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) and other Antarctic seal species south of 60°S latitude, prohibiting their killing or capture except for scientific purposes under strict quotas.^[108] Key breeding sites benefit from international designations that limit human access and activities. South Georgia, hosting over 50% of the global pup production, was designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2020 through an extension that emphasizes its role in seal conservation, enforcing vessel restrictions and habitat safeguards. Similarly, Macquarie Island, a critical breeding ground for approximately 10% of the world's southern elephant seals, was inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List in 1997, with surrounding marine areas protected to minimize disturbances during breeding and molting seasons.^[109] National initiatives further bolster these efforts. In Argentina, Peninsula Valdés—home to a significant colony—is managed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site and nature reserve where authorities monitor health threats, including recent avian influenza outbreaks that killed thousands of pups in 2023.^[110] Australia, under its Threatened Species Strategy (2021–2026), allocates funding for tagging programs on sub-Antarctic islands like Macquarie, enabling population tracking and migration studies to inform protective policies.^[111] Research efforts integrate directly into conservation management. The Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole (MEOP) program deploys sensors on southern elephant seals to collect data on ocean temperature, salinity, and currents, providing insights into environmental health that guide CCAMLR's fishing quotas and ecosystem-based protections.^[112] These measures have contributed to notable successes, including a population rebound from near-extinction lows of around 100,000 individuals in the late 19th century to estimates of 664,000–740,000 adults as of 2023, alongside reductions in incidental bycatch through fishing gear modifications like modified longline hooks and escape devices promoted under CCAMLR guidelines, though recent H5N1 outbreaks have caused significant additional mortality.^[8]^[113]^[51]

Climate change impacts

Environmental effects

Climate change is profoundly altering the oceanographic conditions in the Southern Ocean, directly impacting the habitats and prey availability for southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Ocean warming has been particularly pronounced in this region, with surface temperatures increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2°C per decade from the 1980s to the 2020s, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This warming reduces the biomass of key prey species such as Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), with projections indicating significant losses in suitable growth habitat for krill due to elevated temperatures disrupting their life cycles and distribution.^[114] Similarly, squid populations, another vital component of elephant seal diets, face potential declines in biomass in Antarctic foraging zones as warmer waters shift oceanic fronts and mesoscale features that aggregate prey.^[115] The decline in sea ice extent exacerbates these challenges, with a 40% reduction observed along the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1979, primarily due to regional warming and altered wind patterns.^[116] This loss limits access to productive continental shelf habitats where elephant seals forage during migrations, compelling them to undertake longer journeys to open-water areas with sufficient prey, thereby increasing energetic costs. Such shifts in ice dynamics also influence the seals' deep-diving adaptations, as reduced ice cover exposes more variable under-ice foraging opportunities.^[117] Changes in upwelling regimes further disrupt nutrient cycles essential for primary productivity in the Southern Ocean, with climate-driven alterations leading to uneven nutrient distribution and reduced phytoplankton blooms that underpin the food web.^[118] Recent 2025 studies link these productivity shifts to prey scarcity, documenting declines in southern elephant seal pup weaning mass since the early 2000s, as maternal foraging success diminishes in altered ecosystems.^[119] Ocean acidification compounds these effects, with Southern Ocean surface waters experiencing a pH drop of 0.1 units since pre-industrial times due to increased CO₂ absorption, representing a 30% rise in acidity.^[120] This acidification particularly impacts calcifying shellfish and pteropods at the base of the food web, reducing their abundance and altering trophic dynamics that affect higher-level predators like elephant seals.^[121] Intensifying storms, fueled by warmer sea surface temperatures, pose additional threats to breeding sites, with more frequent and severe cyclones eroding coastal beaches critical for haul-outs. Recent intensifying storms have damaged coastal habitats on sub-Antarctic islands like Macquarie Island, affecting vegetation and beach morphology used by elephant seals for pupping.^[122]

Population responses

Southern elephant seal populations have exhibited notable demographic shifts in response to climate-induced changes, particularly in key breeding sites. At Macquarie Island, breeding female numbers have continued a long-term decline, dropping from approximately 9,400 in 1949 to around 2,550 by 2023, at an average rate of 1.1% per year, with recent 2025 assessments confirming the ongoing trend amid warming ocean conditions affecting foraging success. In the South Orkney Islands, while long-term data from 1977 to 2024 indicate population fluctuations tied to sea ice melt, southern elephant seals have shown no statistically significant overall decline, though localized pressures from reduced ice cover have contributed to variability in breeding attendance.^[123] Behavioral adaptations among females demonstrate plasticity in foraging strategies as ocean warming alters prey distribution. Studies reveal that female southern elephant seals dive deeper in warmer waters to access prey, with dive depths positively correlated to sea surface temperatures, enabling them to target vertically displaced food resources.^[124] This shift has coincided with improved body condition in pups despite declining weaning mass and length, suggesting more efficient energy acquisition through adjusted foraging tactics in altered environments.^[119] Genetic analyses from 2025 postglacial studies highlight the species' historical resilience, with populations recolonizing the Southern Ocean from multiple glacial refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum, undergoing expansions and contractions in response to past climatic shifts.^[22] However, the current rate of environmental change outpaces evolutionary adaptation, as evidenced by dynamic range alterations under modern warming and human pressures, potentially limiting long-term viability without sufficient genetic diversity to buffer rapid shifts.^[59] Population projections underscore vulnerability to escalating climate stressors, with models indicating continued declines if Antarctic foraging regions experience persistent changes, though specific global estimates vary by scenario. The synergy between avian influenza outbreaks and climate effects has severely impacted recovery at sites like Península Valdés, where a 2023-2024 bird flu event caused a substantial population drop, with approximately 53,000 breeding females absent in 2024 and projections suggesting recovery may take over a century due to compounded stressors on weakened individuals.^[102]^[10]^[125] Monitoring indicators reveal emerging pressures on recruitment and demographics in warming hotspots. Pup survival has declined due to increased storm frequency and intensity linked to climate variability, elevating early-life mortality risks. Sex ratios are skewing toward females in some colonies, driven by higher male-biased mortality from environmental stressors like altered ocean temperatures affecting pup production and juvenile survival.^[126]^[127]

Research and notable observations

Key scientific studies

The Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole (MEOP-CTD) program, initiated in the 2000s and continuing through 2025, has deployed conductivity-temperature-depth satellite relay data loggers (CTD-SRDLs) on over 1,000 southern elephant seals, transforming them into autonomous ocean sensors that collect high-resolution profiles of temperature and salinity across the Southern Ocean.^[128] This effort has generated more than 200,000 vertical profiles with near-circumpolar coverage, significantly enhancing understanding of ocean circulation and biogeochemical processes in under-sampled regions like the Antarctic marginal seas.^[129] A 2024 update to the MEOP-CTD dataset highlighted key foraging hotspots, revealing that seals preferentially target Antarctic shelf areas rich in prey, such as the Weddell Sea gyre, where temperature and salinity gradients correlate with elevated productivity.^[128] Genetic analyses have advanced insights into the species' demographic history, with a 2025 study utilizing ancient DNA from subfossil remains across Australia, New Zealand, and Antarctica to reconstruct postglacial recolonization patterns.^[22] This research, published in Global Change Biology, identified multiple glacial refugia and severe population bottlenecks during the Last Glacial Maximum, demonstrating how southern elephant seals expanded from isolated southern refugia approximately 10,000 years ago amid rising sea levels and warming climates.^[22] The analysis of mitochondrial genomes from over 50 ancient samples traced matrilineal lineages, revealing dynamic range shifts and genetic diversity losses linked to historical environmental pressures.^[22] Long-term monitoring at Macquarie Island has provided data on behavioral ecology from the late 20th century, linking climatic events like El Niño to variations in pup survival through environmental conditions affecting maternal foraging.^[130] This study showed influences of El Niño on pup survival rates.^[130] Concurrent use of dive recorders has illuminated sex-specific foraging strategies, with adult males capable of reaching depths exceeding 1,000 meters—deeper than typical female dives—reflecting differences in energy demands and prey targeting during post-breeding migrations.^[131] Disease research has gained urgency with the 2023-2024 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak, prompting a 2025 modeling study in Marine Mammal Science that predicts protracted recovery timelines for affected colonies.^[11] By integrating demographic data from Peninsula Valdés, Argentina, the model estimated near-total pup mortality (over 95%) and 20-30% adult losses, forecasting a 100-year horizon for population rebound under current vital rates, assuming no further epidemics.^[11] This work underscores the vulnerability of breeding aggregations to emerging pathogens, with simulations highlighting density-dependent transmission as a key driver of prolonged suppression.^[11] As climate sentinels, southern elephant seals have informed projections of environmental change, exemplified by a 2025 British Antarctic Survey (BAS) study on South Orkney Islands populations that examined responses to sea ice changes using census data from 1977 to 2024.^[123] The research indicated a non-significant long-term decline in southern elephant seal numbers, with population dynamics negatively related to sea ice advance and retreat timing, alongside satellite-derived ice metrics.^[123] This contribution emphasizes the species' role in monitoring polar amplification, with integrated tag data confirming shifts in dive behaviors tied to altered ice-edge productivity.^[123]

Notable individuals

One prominent southern elephant seal is Neil, born in October 2020 near Salem Bay in Tasmania, Australia. He achieved viral fame through social media for his unusual inland wanderings, including hauling himself onto suburban streets and interacting with traffic cones in Dunalley from late 2022 through 2025, behaviors that drew global attention and supported conservation outreach by highlighting the species' vulnerability and the need for public space during moulting.^[132]^[133] Neil's escapades, documented via community videos and an official Instagram account, emphasized the challenges of juvenile seals adapting to coastal environments amid human development.^[134] Another recurrent vagrant is Bakkies, a tagged adult male first identified at Bakoven Beach near Cape Town, South Africa, in December 2024.^[135] His 2025 sighting at Onrus Beach and subsequent appearances in the Cape region underscored the species' occasional northward migrations beyond their typical sub-Antarctic range, raising awareness of oceanic connectivity and the impacts of warming currents on dispersal patterns.^[136] Bakkies, monitored through flipper tags by the South African Stranding Network, became a local celebrity, illustrating how individual wanderers can inform broader ecological monitoring.^[137] In historical sealing lore from the 19th century, accounts often romanticized massive bulls like those dubbed "beachmasters" in Antarctic expeditions, though specific names such as "Hooker" appear in anecdotal sailor tales from Kerguelen Islands hunts, symbolizing the era's brutal exploitation that nearly decimated populations for blubber oil.^[138] The 2023 avian influenza outbreak at Península Valdés, Argentina, contributed to epidemiological data on disease transmission and impacts in the species.^[139] Research icons include females from the Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole (MEOP) program, which has recorded dives exceeding 2,000 meters, providing critical oceanographic data on temperature and salinity profiles.^[140] These seals have amplified cultural impact, appearing in documentaries like the BBC's 2025 special on influenza threats, which featured Valdés survivors to advocate for Antarctic protection and highlight their role as ocean sentinels.^[141]

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(a) It is forbidden to kill or capture Ross seals Ommatophoca rossi, Southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina, or fur seals of the genus Arctocephalus. (b) ...
[101]
Macquarie Island - UNESCO World Heritage Centre
Elephant Seals (Mirounga leonina) also form impressive colonies during the breeding season. Criterion (viii): Macquarie Island and its outlying islets are ...
[102]
Scientists Begin Testing Bird Flu Vaccine in Seals
Sep 9, 2025 · In late 2023, the virus tore through Valdés Peninsula in Argentina, killing an estimated 17,400 southern elephant seal pups. It was an ...Missing: reserve | Show results with:reserve
[103]
[PDF] Threatened Species Strategy Action Plan - 2021-2026
Since 2014, the Australian Government has mobilised more than $660 million for projects directly supporting outcomes for threatened species and threatened ...
[104]
MEOP
In this website, you will find information about the marine mammal tagging programs, and an access point to the publicly available databases. Please let us know ...Missing: health quotas
[105]
[PDF] Understanding CCAMLR's Approach to Management
This 'ecosystem approach', which considers the whole Southern. Ocean to be a suite of interlinked systems, is what distinguishes CCAMLR from other multilateral ...
[106]
https://therevelator.org/elephant-seals-diving-garbage/
[107]
Productivity and Change in Fish and Squid in the Southern Ocean
Jun 24, 2021 · In this region, myctophids are important prey items for Emperor penguins, Weddell seals, and southern elephant seals (McCormack et al., 2020).
[108]
[PDF] Impacts of Climate Change on Antarctic Marine Ecosystems
Along the western Antarctic Peninsula and SW Atlantic sector, sea ice extent has decreased by 40% over the 26-year period from 1979 to 2004 (i.e., extent of ...
[109]
Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses ...
Feb 24, 2017 · Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top ...<|separator|>
[110]
Impact of climate change on the primary production and related ...
Jan 10, 2021 · The seasonal cycles of primary production and related nutrients are closely linked with the seasonal changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures.
[111]
Elephant seals as sentinels of the ongoing changes affecting the ...
Estimation of total population size of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) on Kerguelen and Crozet archipelagos using very high-resolution satellite ...
[112]
Ocean acidification | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Sep 25, 2025 · During this time, the pH of surface ocean waters has fallen by 0.1 pH units. This might not sound like much, but the pH scale is logarithmic, ...
[113]
Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
The warming ocean is affecting marine organisms at multiple trophic levels, impacting fisheries with implications for food production and human communities.
[114]
This week at Macquarie Island: 15 March 2024
Mar 15, 2024 · We conducted annual censuses of breeding elephant seals in October, and fur seals in December through to February. ... damaged by storm surge and ...
[115]
Global Change Biology - Wiley Online Library
Jun 18, 2025 · Between 1977 and 2024, all Antarctic fur seals, southern elephant seals, and Weddell seals present at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, ( ...
[116]
Elephant seal dive behaviour is influenced by ocean temperature ...
ABSTRACT: The potential effects of ocean warming on marine predators are largely unknown, though the impact on the distribution of prey in vertical space ...
[117]
Avian Influenza Is a Devastating Setback for the Patagonian ...
Apr 16, 2025 · Avian Influenza Is a Devastating Setback for the Patagonian Elephant Seal Population. It may take a century before a southern elephant seal ...Missing: trampling injuries<|control11|><|separator|>
[118]
Elephant Seals and Climate Change - - Bay Nature Magazine
Mar 20, 2009 · Sydeman (of the Farallon Institute) found that ocean temperature directly impacts the ratio of male to female seal pups born in a given year.Missing: southern hotspots mortality
[119]
The Rippling Effects of Climate Change on Elephant Seal Habitat
Jun 13, 2023 · Climate change is the driving cause behind beaches becoming less hospitable for elephant seals. Waves wash up towards a group of seals on beach hemmed in by ...
[120]
An enduring, 20-year, multidisciplinary seal-borne ocean sensor ...
May 29, 2025 · ... program attaching CTD-SRDLs to southern elephant and Weddell seals. ... Tagging initially revealed that juvenile male southern elephant seals ...
[121]
A Southern Indian Ocean database of hydrographic profiles ... - Nature
Sep 2, 2014 · The MEOP-CTD database currently includes more than 200,000 seal-derived hydrographic profiles with near circumpolar distribution, and will ...
[122]
Complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of long ...
Foraging elephant seals breeding at Macquarie Island range widely over millions of square kilometres of the Southern Ocean [21,33,34], and it has been ...
[123]
Circumpolar habitat use in the southern elephant seal: implications ...
May 26, 2016 · The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) provides the primary pathway for exchange of water masses between the ocean basins and between the ...
[124]
Neil the Seal - Wikipedia
Neil (born October 2020), also known as Neil the Seal, is a southern elephant seal in the Australian state of Tasmania. He was born in Salem Bay, Tasmania. ...
[125]
Tasmania's Neil the seal has found viral fame, leaving experts ...
Dec 21, 2023 · A 600kg southern elephant seal known for venturing away from the coast and hauling himself about the streets of Tasmania's southern beach suburbs, have left ...<|control11|><|separator|>
[126]
Neil The Seal Is A Social Media Sensation, But Experts Are Concerned
Feb 3, 2025 · Neil the Seal is not a mythical creature in Australia that turned out to be real. Neil the Seal is very real and is a social media sensation ...Missing: viral | Show results with:viral
[127]
Meet Neil the seal, the elephant seal in Tasmania captivating ... - NPR
Dec 21, 2023 · Though Neil is only three years old, he is still a growing southern elephant seal. Currently, he clocks in at about 1,300 pounds. SHAPIRO: ...Missing: conservation | Show results with:conservation
[128]
Bakkies, the elephant seal, has returned to the Cape
Oct 8, 2025 · Bakkies, the elephant seal, has returned to the Cape ... Cape Town's shores have long played host to some fascinating (and rather large) visitors ...
[129]
Bakkies, the elephant seal, returns to Cape Town's shores
Oct 31, 2025 · Celebrity Bakkies the elephant seal returns to Cape Town, prompting public awareness and safety measures.
[130]
Bakkies the elephant seal returns to Cape Town! After first being ...
Oct 29, 2025 · After first being tagged at Bakoven Beach in December 2024 and last seen near Mouille Point in April, Bakkies has now hauled out at Onrus ...
[131]
A History Of Fur & Elephant Seal Hunting In Antarctica
Sealing was the earliest industry, with fur seals targeted for fur and elephant seals for blubber oil. Fur seal hunting ended by early 20th century, while ...
[132]
Epidemiological data of an influenza A/H5N1 outbreak in elephant ...
Nov 11, 2024 · Southern elephant seals are widely distributed in Subantarctic islands, with a single continental colony at Península Valdés, Patagonia, ...
[133]
Maximum dive depth of southern elephant seal ... - pangaea
Apr 29, 2009 · ... dive depth of southern elephant seal MAR2008_sel_a_f_22 from Marion Island [dataset]. University of Pretoria, Department of Zoology ...
[134]
This week at Macquarie Island: 27 September 2024
Sep 27, 2024 · We have watched over the weeks as the elephant seal population on the isthmus exploded, going from around 100 to 300 plus! And we anticipate ...
[135]
Southern elephant seals are adaptable—but they struggle when ...
Mar 20, 2025 · However, with modern climate shifts and human exploitation, much of this genetic diversity has been lost. The colonies that once thrived on the ...
[136]
https://capetowner.co.za/news/2025-10-31-bakkies-the-elephant-seal-returns-to-cape-town-s-shores/