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Trolley problem

The trolley problem is a thought experiment in moral philosophy, originally introduced by Philippa Foot in her 1967 paper "The Problem of Abortion and the Doctrine of the Double Effect," which poses a dilemma where an individual can intervene to divert a runaway trolley from killing five people on the main track to instead killing one person on a siding, thereby testing the ethical distinction between intended harms and foreseen side effects under the doctrine of double effect.^[1] In the standard setup, the agent—such as the trolley driver—faces a choice between allowing five deaths through inaction or actively causing one death to save the greater number, revealing tensions between consequentialist ethics that prioritize outcomes and deontological views that emphasize the moral prohibition on directly harming innocents.^[2] Judith Jarvis Thomson expanded the problem in her 1985 essay "The Trolley Problem" with variants like the "fat man" case, where stopping the trolley requires pushing a large bystander off a bridge into its path, which typically elicits stronger intuitive aversion due to the direct personal involvement in the killing.^[3] These scenarios have influenced discussions in applied ethics, including autonomous vehicle decision-making algorithms and psychological studies on moral intuitions, though critics argue the problem's artificial constraints—such as perfect knowledge of outcomes and anonymized victims—fail to reflect causal complexities and emotional realities of actual ethical dilemmas, potentially misleading analyses of real-world moral reasoning.^[4] Empirical research shows inconsistent responses across cultures and contexts, underscoring that intuitive judgments often defy strict utilitarian or absolutist frameworks, with no consensus resolution emerging from philosophical debate.^[2]

Origins

Philippa Foot's Formulation

Philippa Foot introduced the trolley problem in her 1967 paper "The Problem of Abortion and the Doctrine of the Double Effect," published in the Oxford Review.^[1] The scenario posits a runaway tram barreling down a track toward five workmen who will be killed unless diverted; the driver can steer it onto a side track, where it will instead kill one workman, thus sacrificing the one to save the five.^[1] Foot presented this dilemma to probe ethical intuitions about intentionally causing harm, specifically whether diverting the tram constitutes a direct intention to kill the lone workman or merely a foreseen side effect of pursuing the greater good of saving lives.^[2] Foot's analysis centered on the doctrine of double effect, a principle rooted in Catholic moral theology tracing back to Thomas Aquinas, which differentiates morally between actions where harm is intended as a means or end and those where harm is merely foreseen but oblique to the primary aim.^[1] In the tram case, proponents of the doctrine might argue that steering constitutes an oblique intention—the death of the one is not aimed at per se but accepted as a byproduct of diverting to save the five—potentially permitting the action under strict conditions, such as proportionality of harm.^[1] However, Foot highlighted the tension: "It is one thing to steer towards someone foreseeing that you will kill him and another to aim at his death as part of your plan," questioning whether the switch truly avoids direct causation of the single death or if it violates absolute prohibitions against murder by treating the one as a means.^[1] Through this formulation, Foot critiqued the doctrine's application to real-world moral conflicts, such as abortion, by exposing potential inconsistencies in how agents distinguish direct from indirect harm; she suggested the principle's reliance on intention may mask deeper conflicts between negative duties (not to harm) and positive ones (to aid), rendering it susceptible to casuistic manipulation rather than resolving intuitions via clear causal distinctions.^[1] This setup emphasized causal agency, where the agent's choice directly initiates the harm to the one versus allowing the default harm to the five, privileging analyses grounded in the actual mechanisms of causation over abstract consequential tallies.^[2]

Judith Jarvis Thomson's Expansions

In her 1985 paper "The Trolley Problem," Judith Jarvis Thomson refined Philippa Foot's original dilemma by developing variations that emphasize distinctions between redirecting harm and directly imposing it, aiming to clarify why moral intuitions often permit the former while rejecting the latter despite equivalent utilitarian outcomes.^[3] Thomson's Bystander scenario posits a runaway trolley heading toward five people on the main track; a bystander at a switch can divert it to a side track with one person, killing that individual as a foreseen side-effect to save the five, which many deem permissible.^[5] In contrast, the Fat Man case involves pushing a large man off an overpass to halt the trolley and save the five, directly using his body as an obstacle, which Thomson notes elicits strong prohibitions against such intervention.^[3] These scenarios probe the role of personal involvement in harm, isolating intuitions about treating individuals as means to an end versus allowing their death as an unintended side-effect of deflecting a threat.^[6] Thomson draws on Kantian principles, invoking the imperative to treat humanity "always as an end and never as a means only," to argue that pushing the fat man violates this by instrumentalizing the victim, whereas switching tracks redirects an existing danger without such direct subjugation.^[5] She introduces the Loop variant, where diverting the trolley sends it toward the lone individual before looping back to the five, requiring the collision with the one to halt it—thus making the death a means rather than mere side-effect—yet maintaining that the act remains defensible under a "distributive exemption" for apportioning threats without originating new aggression.^[3] Thomson's expansions underscore deontological constraints, asserting that individual rights against infringement "trump" aggregate utilities, as sacrificing one for many without consent breaches stringent protections against being used instrumentally.^[5] This framework shifts analysis toward foundational reasoning on rights as thresholds beyond which consequentialist calculations cannot justify violations, challenging simplistic action-inaction dichotomies in favor of evaluating whether interventions infringe inviolable claims.^[6] By these refinements, Thomson illuminates how moral permissions hinge on respecting persons' autonomy from coercive ends, rather than net outcomes alone.^[3]

Core Dilemma

Standard Switch Scenario

In the standard switch scenario, a runaway trolley travels down railway tracks toward five workmen unable to escape, positioned on the main line. A bystander located beside a lever can activate a switch to redirect the trolley onto a parallel siding track, where a single workman stands, resulting in the death of that one individual instead of the five.^[7]^[8] This formulation presupposes that the six lives hold equivalent moral weight, the trolley's path cannot be halted by other means, and the diversion predictably causes the single death while averting the five.^[9]^[10] Omitting intervention permits the trolley to strike the five, whereas switching the track actively redirects it to strike the one, yielding a net preservation of four lives.^[11] Philippa Foot introduced this scenario in 1967 to probe distinctions in moral permissibility between foreseen harms and intended ones, structuring it to expose fault lines in ethical decision-making when resources constrain outcomes to either five or one fatalities.^[8]^[9]

Fundamental Ethical Conflict: Consequentialism vs. Rights-Based Ethics

The trolley problem's switch variant pits consequentialist ethics, which evaluate actions solely by their outcomes, against rights-based or deontological approaches that emphasize inviolable individual rights and prohibitions on intentional wrongdoing. Under consequentialism, particularly utilitarianism, diverting the trolley to kill one person instead of five maximizes overall welfare by producing a net gain of four lives saved, rendering the act morally obligatory regardless of the means employed.^[12] This framework, however, invites critique for subordinating individual agency to aggregate utility, potentially justifying the sacrificial use of innocents as interchangeable units in calculations of collective benefit, thereby undermining the principle that persons possess inherent dignity beyond their utility to others.^[13] In contrast, deontological ethics, often grounded in duties and rights, reject the switch because it constitutes an intentional violation of the lone track worker's right not to be harmed, even if that harm foreseeably prevents greater losses elsewhere.^[13]^[3] Rights-based views assert that moral prohibitions against direct aggression—such as actively causing death—hold irrespective of consequential trade-offs, preserving the non-instrumental status of individuals and avoiding the aggregation of harms into a permissible calculus.^[14] This stance aligns with causal distinctions between acts of commission, where the agent directly intervenes to produce harm, and omissions, where inaction allows an existing threat to continue; pulling the switch transforms passive observation into active causation, breaching deontological constraints on deliberate endangerment.^[15] The dilemma thus illuminates tensions in applying consequentialist reasoning to policy, where optimizing for majority outcomes can normalize the targeted sacrifice of vulnerable minorities under pretexts of net good, as seen in historical precedents like forced sterilizations justified by eugenic utility metrics in early 20th-century programs.^[13] Empirical intuitions often reflect this clash, with many endorsing the impersonal switch (an omission-like redirection) but recoiling from personal interventions, suggesting an innate recognition of rights over pure outcome tabulation that challenges consequentialism's reduction of ethics to impartial arithmetic.^[2]

Empirical Research

Survey Results and Demographic Variations

Surveys consistently show high endorsement for utilitarian action in the standard switch scenario, where diverting a trolley kills one worker instead of five, with approval rates averaging around 80-90% across large samples. For instance, an analysis of over 70,000 responses from multiple countries reported a country-level average of 81% endorsing sacrifice in the switch case.^[16] In contrast, the footbridge variant, requiring personal force to push a bystander onto the tracks, elicits far lower approval, typically under 30%, highlighting a robust distinction between impersonal and personal harm interventions.^[17] This pattern holds temporally, from early studies like those referenced in Greene's work onward, through 2020s datasets, underscoring empirical consistency despite framing variations that can modestly shift responses, suggesting judgments are not purely rational but influenced by intuitive cues.^[18] Demographic variations reveal subtle but replicable differences. Age effects indicate adolescents exhibit more utilitarian tendencies than adults, particularly in group settings; a 2024 study found adolescents chose sacrificial actions (e.g., pulling the lever or pushing in footbridge-like dilemmas) more frequently than young adults during collective moral decision-making.^[19] Culturally, Western samples often show stronger aversion to personal force dilemmas compared to some Eastern groups, though overall patterns of preferring switch over push remain universal across 42 countries in a 2020 study, with collectivist societies displaying slightly higher impartiality in aggregated utilitarian choices.^[17] ^[20] However, specific contexts like China yield lower sacrifice endorsement overall, with participants less willing to divert for net lives saved.^[20] Contextual factors further modulate responses, as seen in time-pressure experiments. A 2022 study in an interdependent cultural sample (Japan) demonstrated that rushed decisions in the standard trolley dilemma led to more variable and often deontological judgments, challenging claims of stable utilitarian deliberation under constraint and affirming intuitive dominance in brief deliberations.^[21] These findings, drawn from diverse methodologies including hypothetical and lab-based operationalizations, affirm the dilema's cross-demographic stability while illustrating how situational pressures expose inconsistencies in abstract moral reasoning.^[22]

Psychological and Neuroscientific Evidence

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have revealed distinct neural patterns in responses to trolley problem variants, with greater activation in emotional brain regions—such as the amygdala, posterior cingulate cortex, and medial prefrontal cortex—during dilemmas involving personal harm, like the footbridge scenario where direct force is required to push a person.^[23] These activations correlate with deontological judgments opposing harm, suggesting an automatic emotional response evolved to inhibit intentional, direct violence against individuals, distinct from utilitarian calculations that engage dorsolateral prefrontal cortex areas associated with cognitive control and reasoning.^[24]^[25] This pattern implies that personal force serves as a cognitive proxy for detecting potential rights violations, triggering inhibitory mechanisms rather than mere affective aversion decoupled from normative concerns.^[18] The CNI model, a computational framework for dissecting moral dilemma responses, quantifies three parameters: sensitivity to consequences (C) favoring utilitarian outcomes, sensitivity to moral norms (N) prohibiting harm, and general impartiality (I) in applying norms regardless of victim identity.^[26] Applied to trolley scenarios, higher N values predict rejection of personal harm actions, reflecting deontic constraints on using individuals as means, while elevated C supports switching tracks in impersonal cases; recent analyses confirm the model's fit across dilemmas, revealing that norm sensitivity often overrides consequentialism when direct agency is involved.^[27] This decomposition supports an innate moral grammar where deontological inclinations arise from evolved heuristics prioritizing individual protections over aggregate welfare in high-agency contexts.^[28] Experimental manipulations demonstrate cognitive influences on these processes: time pressure, by limiting deliberation, increases deontological endorsements in standard trolley dilemmas, as intuitive emotional responses dominate over effortful utilitarian reasoning.^[21] Conversely, group discussions amplify utilitarian choices, with collective deliberation shifting toward outcome-maximizing actions that violate norms, as individuals converge on impartial cost-benefit analyses under social influence.^[29] These findings underscore causal roles for processing constraints and social context in revealing underlying biases toward deontology in solitary, rapid judgments, akin to evolved safeguards against exploitative harm.^[30]

Critiques of Empirical Methodology

Empirical studies on the trolley problem have been criticized for their artificial nature, which introduces hypothetical bias wherein participants' responses diverge from real-world behavior due to the absence of genuine stakes, emotions, and consequences. For instance, surveys elicit abstract moral judgments without the psychological pressures of actual decision-making, leading to overestimation of utilitarian choices that individuals might not endorse or execute in practice. A 2015 study found that while hypothetical trolley dilemmas predict stated preferences, they fail to correlate with incentivized behavioral choices in analogous experimental tasks, suggesting limited external validity. This disconnect arises because contrived scenarios strip away contextual realism, such as probabilistic risks or incomplete information prevalent in everyday ethical conflicts.^[31]^[32] Framing effects and presentation order further compromise the reliability of trolley problem data, as minor variations in wording or sequence influence judgments independently of underlying moral principles. Research involving professional philosophers demonstrated that affirmative framing (e.g., "save five lives") versus negative framing (e.g., "kill one") shifts endorsement rates for switching the trolley by up to 20%, with even experts susceptible to these biases. Similarly, the order in which dilemmas are presented—such as footbridge before switch—alters responses, with earlier scenarios priming deontological intuitions that carry over, undermining claims of stable, universal preferences. These artifacts indicate that empirical aggregates may reflect cognitive heuristics or survey design flaws rather than robust ethical intuitions, particularly when cultural differences amplify confounds, as Western participants show greater sensitivity to personal force than East Asian groups.^[33]^[34]^[22] Recent analyses argue that trolley studies distract from realistic dilemmas in domains like autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pandemics, where decisions involve ongoing risk mitigation rather than binary sacrifices. A 2023 paper contends that the trolley's assumption of inevitable collision misrepresents AV ethics, which prioritize prevention through sensors and algorithms over post-failure triage, rendering empirical trolley data inapplicable for programming real systems. In pandemic resource allocation, such as ventilator triaging during COVID-19 surges, trolley hypotheticals overlook dynamic factors like patient recovery probabilities and long-term societal costs, as noted in critiques questioning their utility for medical guidelines. These limitations highlight the peril of overgeneralizing survey averages, which can mask violations of individual rights by prioritizing aggregate outcomes without causal validation from foundational ethical reasoning.^[35]^[2]^[36]

Variations

Footbridge and Personal Force Dilemmas

In the footbridge variant of the trolley problem, a runaway trolley is barreling toward five people strapped to the tracks, while the decision-maker stands on a footbridge spanning the tracks next to a large man; pushing the large man off the bridge would halt the trolley with his body, saving the five at the cost of his life.^[37] This scenario, introduced by Judith Jarvis Thomson, contrasts sharply with the standard switch case by requiring direct physical contact to cause harm, rather than indirect diversion via a lever.^[38] The concept of "personal force" highlights this distinction, referring to the application of direct bodily force by the agent to inflict harm, which empirical studies show intensifies moral aversion compared to impersonal mechanisms like switches.^[39] Joshua Greene's research identifies personal force as a psychological trigger that activates automatic emotional responses prohibiting intentional harm, even when outcomes mirror the switch dilemma's net benefit of saving more lives.^[40] Across experiments, actions involving personal force, such as pushing, are judged less morally permissible than equivalent impersonal harms.^[39] Survey data consistently reveal low endorsement for the footbridge action: in one analysis of responses, only about 31% approved pushing the man, far below rates for the switch variant (around 81%).^[41] This divergence persists even in variants testing moral desert, such as the "fat villain" case, where the large man is specified as having deliberately caused the trolley's runaway path; approval rates remain minimal, indicating that deontological constraints against using an individual as a mere means override considerations of culpability.^[42] These patterns suggest an intuitive prohibition on direct personal harm that holds irrespective of the victim's character or the aggregate utility gained.^[43]

Loop, Transplant, and Other Constructs

In the loop variant, introduced by Judith Jarvis Thomson, a runaway trolley heads toward five people on the main track, but a bystander at a switch can divert it to a side track containing one person; crucially, the side track loops back toward the main track, such that the trolley's collision with the one person is necessary to halt its momentum and prevent it from rejoining the path to the five.^[6] This setup challenges the doctrine of double effect (DDE) by rendering the death of the one not merely a foreseen side effect of diversion, but the direct causal means of saving the five, as the body's obstruction blocks the loop.^[3] Intuitions typically reject diverting in this case more strongly than in the standard switch scenario, suggesting that causal proximity or intentional use of the victim as a barrier invokes deontological prohibitions beyond aggregate harm minimization.^[44] The transplant case, also from Thomson, parallels this by positing a surgeon with five dying patients, each needing a different organ; a healthy visitor arrives whose tissues match all five, allowing the surgeon to anesthetize and kill the visitor to harvest organs and transplant them, saving the five at the cost of one.^[3] Unlike the switch, where intervention averts a threat without initiating harm, transplant requires active violation of the healthy individual's rights to secure bodily integrity, making the killing the intentional means rather than a byproduct.^[45] Empirical intuitions overwhelmingly deem this impermissible, highlighting a resistance to treating persons as mere resources for utilitarian calculus, even when numerically equivalent to trolley diversion.^[46] These constructs, by equating numerical trade-offs with direct instrumentalization, expose tensions in consequentialist frameworks lacking absolute constraints on harming innocents; acceptance would imply endorsing escalatory sacrifices (e.g., preemptively harvesting from the healthy to avert any multi-victim crises), a slope constrained only by rights-based anchors like inviolability of agency.^[44] Recent analysis, such as Frederick Choo's 2025 examination of the loop, reaffirms its threat to principles permitting harm imposition for net benefit, as it undermines distinctions between indirect and direct agency without invoking personal force.^[44] Other analogs, like hypothetical pandemic triage where officials ration ventilators by euthanizing one compatible patient to sustain five, echo this logic but dilute causal purity through institutional diffusion, reinforcing the classical cases' emphasis on unmediated rights violations.^[2]

Philosophical Analysis

Utilitarian Justifications and Challenges

Utilitarians defend diverting the trolley in the standard switch scenario by asserting that the action produces a net positive outcome, saving five lives at the cost of one and thereby maximizing aggregate utility measured in terms of lives preserved or suffering minimized.^[47] This calculus holds inaction as morally equivalent to action when the former permits greater harm, since moral evaluation hinges on consequences rather than the agent's direct involvement, with the default path's five deaths attributable to omitted intervention.^[48] Proponents like Peter Singer extend this to emphasize impartial benevolence, where individual lives carry equal weight, compelling the switch to avert the worse total loss without regard for personal detachment from the outcome. Critics highlight logical vulnerabilities in this framework, particularly its tendency to sanction prima facie objectionable acts—such as targeted killing—if they yield superior aggregates, potentially endorsing "evil" means for desirable ends without intrinsic constraints on harm types.^[49] The approach conflates distinct causal chains, treating the agent's redirection as neutral despite introducing a novel intervention that directly occasions the single death, unlike the uncontrolled runaway precipitating the five, which undermines accountability distinctions vital for predictable social norms.^[8] In real-world extensions, utilitarian reasoning risks normalizing preemptive harms to innocents under probabilistic "greater good" projections, as trolley-like trade-offs scale to policies aggregating diffuse costs—such as surveillance intrusions or resource reallocations—into concentrated sacrifices on vulnerable groups, eroding safeguards against majority overreach.^[50] This aggregation logic falters empirically in complex systems, where utility forecasts prove unreliable due to unmodeled variables like retaliation or trust erosion, and philosophically by prioritizing collective sums over individual inviolability, which empirical history shows fosters instability as minorities anticipate sacrificial utility calculations.^[49] Such challenges reveal utilitarianism's vulnerability to slippery escalations, where boundary-pushing dilemmas justify ever-broader interventions absent deprioritizing personal agency.^[8]

Deontological Objections and Doctrines of Double Effect

Deontological ethics objects to utilitarian resolutions of the trolley problem on the grounds that they permit the intentional violation of individual rights to achieve aggregate welfare gains, treating persons as mere means rather than ends in themselves. This contravenes Kant's categorical imperative, which demands that rational beings never be used solely instrumentally, regardless of consequential benefits.^[51] In the standard trolley scenario, utilitarianism endorses diverting the trolley to kill one instead of five, equating moral value to net outcomes; deontologists counter that such acts infringe absolute duties against harming innocents, as outcomes cannot retroactively justify rights violations.^[52] The doctrine of double effect (DDE), originating in Thomas Aquinas's ethical framework and elaborated by Philippa Foot in her 1967 analysis, provides a principled distinction to resolve apparent conflicts without conceding to consequentialism. DDE permits actions with both good and foreseen bad effects provided the action is independently morally acceptable, the bad effect is not directly intended (only obliquely foreseen), the good effect does not depend on the bad as a means, and proportionality holds between harms avoided and incurred.^[14] In Foot's trolley framing, diverting the track satisfies DDE: the agent's intent is to save the five, with the single death a foreseen side effect rather than a willed means, rendering the act permissible despite the harm.^[53] Variants like the loop or transplant cases expose utilitarian overreach, as they render the single death explicitly instrumental—using the victim's body to halt the trolley—thus intending harm as a means, which DDE prohibits even if the net lives saved match the switch case. Deontologists argue these scenarios reveal consequentialism's flaw in collapsing moral distinctions between intending and foreseeing harm, or between side effects and targeted sacrifices, thereby eroding protections for individual inviolability.^[1] Common moral intuitions favoring the switch yet rejecting personal-force dilemmas align with this intentionality-based restraint, reflecting a realist commitment to inherent rights over outcome optimization.^[54]

Attempts at Resolution and Ongoing Debates

Hybrid ethical frameworks, such as threshold deontology, attempt to reconcile deontological prohibitions with consequentialist demands by permitting overrides of rights-based constraints when the aggregate harm prevented exceeds a specified threshold, potentially justifying switch-pulling in standard trolley cases where five lives outweigh one.^[13] These models, however, encounter difficulties in specifying defensible thresholds that consistently align with intuitive responses across variants, often appearing ad hoc or insufficiently responsive to the doctrine of double effect's distinction between intended and foreseen harms.^[13] Rule utilitarianism offers another synthesis, endorsing actions that conform to general rules proven to maximize overall utility over time, which might support diverting the trolley if such a rule—e.g., "minimize deaths in foreseeable crises"—yields better long-term outcomes than rigid non-intervention.^[55] Yet critics argue this approach falters in loop or footbridge variants, where rule adherence conflicts with direct utilitarian calculation or deontological intuitions against personal involvement, failing to dissolve the underlying tension between aggregate welfare and individual rights.^[55] Ongoing debates include analyses of culpability and penitence, positing that the moral evaluation of trolley interventions hinges not solely on outcomes or intentions but on the agent's subsequent remorse, with utilitarian choices bearing intrinsic value through penitential acknowledgment of the sacrificed life. A 2023 philosophical examination, extended in 2025 discussions, frames this as illuminating virtue ethics' role, where penitence mitigates culpability in action-omission asymmetries, though it invites scrutiny for conflating psychological response with normative justification.^[56] Reversibility critiques, emerging prominently around 2015, challenge deontological asymmetries by constructing inverted scenarios—e.g., a trolley heading toward one unless diverted to five—revealing that rejecting intervention in the original implies endorsing mass harm via omission in the reverse, commitments many find intuitively untenable and indicative of deeper flaws in action-inaction distinctions.^[48] Proponents of deontology counter that such symmetries overlook causal agency or rights' non-reversible nature, perpetuating unresolved disputes over whether trolley dilemmas probe genuine moral structure or artifactual framings.^[48] Philosophical and cultural pluralism manifests in empirical findings of divergent judgments, with a 2023 study identifying multiple normative principles (e.g., harm minimization versus rights protection) invoked contextually rather than hierarchically, and cross-national surveys across 42 countries in 2020 revealing universal tendencies toward personal force aversion but variable acceptance of impersonal sacrifices influenced by individualism-collectivism spectra.^[57]^[17] These patterns suggest no unitary resolution, as contextual factors prioritize deontic constraints over abstract utility aggregation in pluralistic moral landscapes, underscoring rationalist ethics' boundaries in accommodating evolved, culture-bound intuitions.^[17]

Practical Applications

Autonomous Vehicles and Algorithmic Decision-Making

The application of the trolley problem to autonomous vehicles (AVs) involves hypothetical scenarios where vehicle software must select between outcomes that minimize harm, such as maintaining course to strike five pedestrians or swerving to strike one pedestrian or the vehicle's passenger.^[58] The MIT Moral Machine platform, launched in 2016 and analyzed in a 2018 study involving over 2 million participants across 233 countries, presented users with such binary dilemmas to gauge preferences for algorithmic programming.^[59] Findings indicated a general utilitarian inclination to prioritize greater numbers of lives spared, alongside biases favoring the young over the elderly, humans over animals, and in some cultural contexts, pedestrians over passengers, though preferences varied significantly by region—for instance, East Asian respondents showed stronger utilitarian tendencies compared to Western ones.^[58] Public surveys from the Moral Machine experiment revealed preferences for protecting vehicle passengers and younger individuals in dilemmas, potentially reflecting self-interested biases rather than abstract ethical consistency.^[59] However, experts have critiqued framing AV ethics around trolley-style dilemmas as misleading, arguing that real AV systems operate via probabilistic risk assessment to avoid crashes entirely, rather than resolving inevitable collisions.^[36] A 2018 Brookings Institution analysis emphasized that such hypotheticals distract from practical engineering priorities like sensor reliability and predictive modeling, which reduce dilemma frequency to near-zero in deployed systems.^[36] Similarly, researchers at North Carolina State University in 2023 contended that trolley problems oversimplify AV decision-making by ignoring time pressures, partial braking options, and non-binary choices available in actual traffic dynamics.^[60] Programming AVs with strict utilitarian algorithms—sacrificing the passenger to save more external lives—raises causal risks of increased liability for manufacturers, as courts could hold firms accountable for intentional harm predictions, deterring deployment and eroding consumer trust in vehicles perceived as prioritizing strangers over owners.^[61] Industry practices favor rule-based systems that prohibit deliberate harm to any party, aligning with deontological constraints to avoid liability traps and maintain predictability, as evidenced by major AV developers rejecting passenger-sacrifice mandates.^[61] This approach prioritizes systemic safety through harm avoidance over outcome maximization in rare edge cases, supported by empirical data showing human drivers already minimize intentional actions in crashes.^[36] Studies from 2024 and 2025 advocate shifting ethical algorithm development toward realistic traffic simulations, incorporating variables like vehicle speed, obstacle detectability, and multi-step maneuvers, rather than isolated hypotheticals.^[62] For example, a June 2025 North Carolina State University framework tests AV moral judgments in everyday low-stakes decisions, such as yielding priorities, to build robust decision trees that outperform trolley-derived models in predictive accuracy for real-world incidents.^[62] These efforts underscore that utilitarian coding in AVs could amplify unintended harms via over-optimization for hypotheticals, whereas data-driven, avoidance-focused algorithms better align with verifiable crash reduction goals.^[63]

AI Ethics and Broader Technological Contexts

In AI systems designed for triage during crises, such as pandemics or mass casualties, trolley problem variants emerge when algorithms must allocate scarce resources like ventilators or medical aid, often prioritizing aggregate outcomes over individual cases. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, AI tools evaluated patient survival probabilities to ration care, effectively weighing one life against multiple others based on utilitarian metrics like expected years of life saved.^[64] Recent benchmarks, such as the 2024 TRIAGE evaluation, test large language models on ethical decisions in simulated mass casualty scenarios, revealing tendencies toward consequentialist choices that sacrifice fewer for the many, though human preferences in surveys favor nuanced factors beyond raw numbers.^[65] A 2025 international study of 1,998 participants found varied ethical stances in triage dilemmas, with some endorsing AI prioritization of aggregates but others rejecting it due to perceived violations of individual dignity.^[66] Debates from 2023 to 2025 have increasingly questioned rigid application of trolley-style utilitarianism in AI, advocating for moral frameworks that incorporate context-specific nuances rather than binary sacrifice biases. Scholars argue that training AI on utilitarian dilemmas risks embedding a default toward harm minimization at any cost, potentially amplifying errors in unpredictable real-world deployments where long-term consequences are unknowable.^[67] Empirical research shows people expect AI moral advisors to lean utilitarian but rate such decisions as less trustworthy when they diverge from deontological intuitions, prompting calls to "ditch" oversimplified trolley paradigms for hybrid models blending outcome assessment with rule-based constraints.^[68] Critiques highlight how academic and media sources, often influenced by consequentialist leanings, normalize aggregate prioritization, which parallels collectivist ideologies that subordinate individual agency to group welfare, as seen in defenses of AI tools accepting minority harms for societal gains.^[69] Alternatives emphasize deontological safeguards, such as hard-coding prohibitions against intentional harm to innocents, to ensure AI robustness in uncertain environments where consequentialist calculations falter due to incomplete data or adversarial manipulations. Proponents contend these rule-based systems align better with human moral psychology, avoiding the scalability risks of utilitarianism—where optimizing for totals could justify escalating sacrifices—and providing verifiable boundaries less prone to value drift in superintelligent agents.^[70] For example, deontology frames AI as a "tool" bound by duties like non-maleficence, offering causal predictability over probabilistic outcome forecasts that may incentivize risky interventions.^[67] This approach counters critiques of consequentialism's nearsightedness, where short-term gains mask unintended escalations, prioritizing ethical invariance amid technological uncertainty.^[71]

Real-World Analogies, Limitations, and Policy Critiques

The trolley problem has been analogized to wartime strategic decisions, such as Allied bombing campaigns during World War II, where targeting densely populated German cities like Dresden in February 1945 was defended by some military leaders as a necessary diversion of resources to hasten enemy surrender and save more Allied lives overall, mirroring the switch-pulling act to sacrifice fewer for many.^[72] However, these parallels break down under scrutiny, as real conflicts involve unverifiable projections of net lives saved amid fog-of-war uncertainties, deliberate intent to terrorize civilians rather than incidental harm, and violation of just war principles prohibiting disproportionate civilian targeting, rendering consequentialist justifications post-hoc rationalizations rather than predictive ethics.^[14] In the COVID-19 pandemic starting in early 2020, trolley analogies were invoked by public health officials and ethicists to frame lockdowns and mandates as switches diverting harm from vulnerable populations to broader societal costs, with measures in countries like the United Kingdom and Italy from March 2020 onward purportedly trading economic disruption and mental health declines for reduced viral fatalities.^[73] Critics, however, highlighted the analogy's misuse, as government-enforced restrictions amplified agency diffusion—spreading responsibility across unelected bodies—and fostered overreach, with centralized controls enabling unchecked extensions of emergency powers without democratic recourse, unlike the isolated agent's choice in the thought experiment.^[74] Fundamental limitations of the trolley problem undermine its policy applicability, primarily its abstraction from real-world uncertainty, where decision-makers lack the hypothetical's guaranteed outcomes and must contend with probabilistic forecasts prone to error, as seen in divergent pandemic models that overestimated deaths while underestimating non-pharmaceutical interventions' collateral harms like delayed cancer screenings.^[75] Empirical studies further reveal poor external validity, with responses to stylized dilemmas failing to correlate with actual moral judgments under ambiguity or stakes resembling medical triage, where factors like personal involvement and long-term repercussions diverge sharply from the scenario's binary setup.^[76] Policy critiques emphasize how trolley-inspired consequentialism incentivizes moral hazard, as aggregated net-benefit calculations overlook diffused accountability and perverse incentives, such as bureaucracies expanding powers under crisis pretexts without ex-post liability, evident in 2020s pandemic responses where initial utilitarian rationales justified indefinite rights suspensions despite emerging data on lockdowns' modest mortality reductions offset by excess non-COVID deaths exceeding 10% in some jurisdictions from untreated conditions.^[4] This approach normalizes rule-breaking for intuitive greater goods, eroding verifiable non-harm principles like individual consent and proportionality, which better align with causal accountability by prioritizing direct prevention of aggression over speculative aggregates prone to bias in institutions favoring interventionist narratives.^[76] Instead, policies grounded in transparent, falsifiable rules—such as targeted protections without blanket coercion—mitigate unintended escalations, countering the trolley's bias toward action over restraint in complex systems.^[73]

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Switch There is a runaway trolley barreling down the railway tracks. Ahead, on the tracks, there are five people. The trolley is headed straight for them.Missing: exact | Show results with:exact<|control11|><|separator|>
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The Trolley Problem and the Nature of Intention: Implications for ...
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Could There Be A Solution To The Trolley Problem? | Issue 116
The Trolley Problem sets up a moral dilemma in which one is to decide whether to steer the trolley in the first scenario, and whether to push the fat man off ...
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The trolley dilemma: would you kill one person to save five?
Jun 2, 2016 · The trolley dilemma allows us to think through the consequences of an action and consider whether its moral value is determined solely by its outcome.<|separator|>
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The Trolley Problem and Why I Wouldn't Pull The Switch
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[PDF] consequential ism trolley cases deontology virtue ethics
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Doctrine of Double Effect - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
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What Is Learned from 70000 Responses to Trolley Scenarios?
Jan 22, 2020 · First, “Participants endorsed sacrifice more for Switch (country-level average: 81%) than for Loop (country-level average: 72%), and for Loop ...
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Universals and variations in moral decisions made in 42 countries ...
Jan 21, 2020 · In this article, we report on the moral universals and variations in responses to three variants of the trolley problem (10, 11), one of the ...
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[PDF] 9 Trolleyology - Joshua Greene
The dissociation between these two processes is seen most clearly within the footbridge case, and in the contrast between the switch and footbridge cases.Missing: percentages | Show results with:percentages
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Adolescents Are More Utilitarian Than Adults in Group Moral ...
Our results suggest that adolescents are more utilitarian than young adults when making decisions in moral dilemmas, compared to young adults.Missing: problem | Show results with:problem
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Cultural differences in responses to real-life and hypothetical trolley ...
Jan 1, 2023 · We found that Chinese participants were less willing to sacrifice one person to save five others, and less likely to consider such an action to be right.
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Fickle Judgments in Moral Dilemmas: Time Pressure and Utilitarian ...
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Situational factors shape moral judgements in the trolley dilemma in ...
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An fMRI investigation of emotional engagement in moral judgment
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Revisiting philosophy with fMRI - American Psychological Association
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The Neural Bases of Cognitive Conflict and Control in Moral Judgment
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Beyond Trolleyology: The CNI Model of Moral-Dilemma Responses
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Beyond Trolleyology: The CNI Model of Moral-Dilemma Responses
This assumption is consistent with findings of trolleyology studies suggesting that (a) time pressure reduces preference for utilitarian over deontological ...
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(PDF) Beyond Trolleyology: The CNI Model of Moral-Dilemma ...
Jan 26, 2024 · The CNI model is a computational model that quantifies sensitivity to consequences for the greater good ( C), sensitivity to moral norms ( N), ...
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[PDF] Moral-dilemma judgments by individuals and groups
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Beyond Trolleyology: The CNI Model of Moral-Dilemma Responses
Mar 13, 2024 · This assumption is consistent with findings of trolleyology studies suggesting that (a) time pressure reduces preference for utilitarian over ...
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Do as I Say, Don't Do as I Do: Differences in moral judgments do not ...
Trolley problems were devised by philosophers in order to investigate why it is permissible to cause a harm to one person in order to save many in some ...
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Revisiting External Validity: Concerns about Trolley Problems and ...
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Philosophers' biased judgments persist despite training, expertise ...
We examined the effects of framing and order of presentation on professional philosophers' judgments about a moral puzzle case (the "trolley problem") and a ...
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Philosophers' Biased Judgments Persist Despite Training, Expertise ...
We examined the effects of framing and order of presentation on professional philosophers' judgments about a moral puzzle case (the “trolley problem”) and a ...
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moving beyond the trolley paradigm for ethics of autonomous vehicles
Nov 29, 2023 · This paper first argues that the trolley dilemma is an inadequate experimental paradigm for investigating traffic moral judgments.
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The folly of trolleys: Ethical challenges and autonomous vehicles
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Moral Cognition - Joshua Greene
Then we have the footbridge dilemma: Once again, the trolley is headed for five people. You are standing next to a large man on a footbridge spanning the ...
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[PDF] Moral Dilemmas and the "Trolley Problem" - rintintin.colorado.edu
The "Trolley Problem" was originally posed by the philosophers Philippa Foot and Judith Jarvis Thomson: ... Then we have the footbridge dilemma: Once again, the ...
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Pushing moral buttons: The interaction between personal force and ...
In two sets of experiments, harmful actions were judged to be less morally acceptable when the agent applied personal force to the victim.
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[PDF] Pushing Moral Buttons: The Interaction Between Personal Force and ...
This tension is nicely captured by a puzzle known as the “Trolley Problem” that has long interested philosophers (Foot, 1978; Thomson, 1985) and that has.
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A spiking neuron model of moral judgment in trolley dilemmas - Nature
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Moral Monday: The Trolley Problem and the Fat Villain
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[PDF] Solving the Trolley Problem - Projects at Harvard
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Frederick Choo, The Loop Trolley Case Strikes Again! A Threat to ...
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The Moral of the Trolley Problem - jstor
The trolley problem involves a driver who can kill one to save five, while a transplant case involves a surgeon who can kill one to save five patients. The ...
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An Utilitarian Solution of the Trolley Problem Essay - IvyPanda
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The Trolley Problem and Reversibility - LessWrong
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Murderer at the Switch: Thomson, Kant, and the Trolley Problem.
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[PDF] The Problem of Abortion and the Doctrine of the Double Effect
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Examining the Trolley Problem Through the Doctrine of the Double ...
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Culpability and Penitence: The Intrinsic Morality of the Trolley Problem
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Choosing Between Life and Death During COVID-19: The A.I. ...
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Consequentialism Need Not Be Nearsighted - LessWrong
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COVID-19 and the Trolley Problem: You're on the Tracks ... - FEE.org
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Moral Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
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